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What Round Are You Targeting Your Starting QB In And Why? (1 Viewer)

What Round Are You Targeting Your Starting QB In And Why?

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R

RalphMouth

Footballguy
I have always been the one who waits till the 7th or higher rounds for their QB but this year I really think after

Brees, Brady, Manning, Rogers, Warner, Romo, Rivers and McNabb there's a huge drop to the next level of QBs.

Schaub could have a breakout year but he's yet to show that he can stay healthy for more an entire season.

Palmer could return but do you trust his elbow injury that kept him out most of last seson.. the elbow he didn't have surgery on ?

This is the year I target a QB in the 4th round. I'm in the 12th spot & I think by the time the draft comes back to me

at #60 pick in the 5th round those top eight guys will be gone.

 
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I prefer a cue to pick... as soon as Warner goes I'd pick. McNabb seems to go later than Rivers and Romo may go earlier but I'd agree that you'd like one of that lot.

 
barista said:
I prefer a cue to pick... as soon as Warner goes I'd pick. McNabb seems to go later than Rivers and Romo may go earlier but I'd agree that you'd like one of that lot.
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being on the end of a 12 team league like I am (12th pick) I may not be able to use the 'cue'...I know that it's good to start a run than get caught up in one.
 
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I typically plan my entire draft around when I draft a QB, and I don't decide ahead of time what QB/round that will be. I wait for top value to fall, and if it doesn't I have a backup plan.

This year I will target Brees in the 2nd, Manning in the 3rd or Rodgers in the 4th if they fall that far (not likely). After that I'll look for McNabb or Schaub in the 7th.

Failing all of that I plan to grab 2 of these guys that have a shot at cracking the top 10:

Palmer

Orton

Garrard

Hasselbeck

Ryan

Cassel

I'll play out all of these scenarios in DD to get an idea of how my team will fill out, but I would of course prefer one of the top QBs to fall past their ADP - as would we all.

 
Obviously this could change within the next month before my draft, but based on my mocks out of the 7 slot, I want to end up with McNabb or Rivers in the 5th or Shaub in the 6th. Rivers is almost always gone when I pick at 5.7, but I'd love to have him there. McNabb is usually there at 5.7, so I will pick him if he is. If McNabb is gone, I will reach for Schaub at 6.6 because I don't want any QB's after him to be my QB1 except maybe Palmer. Schaub is almost always there at 6.6, but not very often at 7.7

 
It really depends on how the draft is going but generally im looking and in years past usually always do wait until around the 7th or 8th to take my 1st QB, for the pure fact I will load up on WRs and atleast 3RBS until I nab my QB.

If I can snag a Rivers or a Rodgers in the 5th or later this year (which I doubt) I will jump on them straight away and plan accordingly. Generally this year I have had a couple of leagues where I have gone back to back in the 7th and 8th with David Garrard and Carson Palmer. Needless to say im pretty happy with that QB combo to start the season. I have even been able to take them back to back in rounds 9-10 which just screams steals to me.

 
I happen to like Schaub & Palmer so don't really agree with your premise. Rodgers, Warner, and McNabb were injury-prone before last year too. I understand them playing every game last yr is worth something but to me it's not worth the gap in their ADP's.

 
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i'm looking at round 6/7 in my 6pt all TD league as that's where Palmer and Schaub can be had. i'm willing to take those risks.

 
in the 12 hole Rogers seems to be there at the 3/4 turn. if he's there i grab him, if not i'm hoping Mcnabb falls to the 5/6 turn...

 
puckalicious said:
I typically plan my entire draft around when I draft a QB, and I don't decide ahead of time what QB/round that will be. I wait for top value to fall, and if it doesn't I have a backup plan.This year I will target Brees in the 2nd, Manning in the 3rd or Rodgers in the 4th if they fall that far (not likely). After that I'll look for McNabb or Schaub in the 7th.Failing all of that I plan to grab 2 of these guys that have a shot at cracking the top 10:PalmerOrtonGarrardHasselbeckRyanCasselI'll play out all of these scenarios in DD to get an idea of how my team will fill out, but I would of course prefer one of the top QBs to fall past their ADP - as would we all.
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:sadbanana: It's pretty much about value. Brees or Brady possibly in 2nd, Manning 3rd, Rodgers 4th, Rivers or Warner 5th, McNabb or Romo 6th. If none of that falls my way, I'm consistently grabbing Palmer in mocks as the 11th or 12th QB off of the board in the 7th or 8th round. I'd rather have him than Cassell or Cutler (guys going around the same time) and am not willing to take Schaub or Ryan where they tend to go. So I'd also take two of your list, preferably with Ryan or Palmer as my starter. I'd leave Orton out though...Denver smells like a tire fire to me this year, just like Cinci did last year.
 
RalphMouth said:
I have always been the one who waits till the 7th or higher rounds for their QB but this year I really think after Brees, Brady, Manning, Rogers, Warner, Romo, Rivers and McNabb there's a huge drop to the next level of QBs.Schaub could have a breakout year but he's yet to show that he can stay healthy for more an entire season.Palmer could return but do you trust his elbow injury that kept him out most of last seson.. the elbow he didn't have surgery on ?This is the year I target a QB in the 4th round. I'm in the 12th spot & I think by the time the draft comes back to meat #60 pick in the 5th round those top eight guys will be gone.
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I'm in a 10 team league, snake draft...if I'm picking in top 4 lets say, I'll go RB...later than that, I'm going Drew Brees, reason being that he's the lone QB that hasn't got a 'yeah.but...'..Brady's 'yeah but' is his knee..Manning's is his new coaching staff, Rivers is the fact that last year might've been his best season, and he might've reached career highs not to be repeated again...Rodgers is good, but nothing close to Brees..after the top 3 RB's of ADP, MJD, Forte the rest are nearly equal, from #3 RB down to ,say, #20-ish..same with WR's.But even Fitz has a 'yeah but' - how well will Warner hold up? Moss' stats rely on Brady's health. Reg Wayne is good, but not good enough to select #5 overall.neither are players like Calvin Johnson, AJ, et al.
 
Big Ben is really undervalued this year - I plan on grabbing him late and teaming him with another QB like Hass - that way I can collect better RBs/WRs - I like rolling the dice on QBs coming off a down year when they had a good year prior - before last year I believe Ben threw for 30TDs and Hass 28 - both can be drafted as backups/late starter

 
12 team, 2-man keeper so round one is really like round 3. 6 pts for passing TD's.

I have always been the guy to wait a bit on QBs and grab some good potential guys ala Cutler last year. However, this year I will be drafting PManning. I have the first pick in the draft and am working on a trade to get the fourth overall pick. I will take him with one of those picks. Personally think he is in for a monster year with the line being healthy, no feeling like he has to feed Harison the ball, a better, more balanced rushing attack. I know Brady will be kept which leaves Manning and Brees. Depending on the guys drafting at 2 and 3, I will take manning at 1 or 4.

I just feel like EVERYONE has the same plan of waiting a bit and grabbing someone a little later. I'd rather not get caught on the wrong side of a QB run and end up settling for McNabb/Schaub/Cutler. Don't get me wrong, I think any one of the guys I listed could have a very good year. I just think Manning is about as close to a safe pickas you can get.

 
I've had good luck with waiting until the 5-7th round to get a QB. In 2007, I got Ben Roethlisberger and he finished in the top 5. In 2008, I got A. Rodgers,

who finished in the top 5. I try to take my second QB one or two rounds after the first one to get a quality backup.

Having said this, I've probably jinxed myself and will get terrible results from the strategy. :confused:

 
Quality backup QBs are looking especially rare this year. Outside of the top 12, there's only 6-7 other QBs I'd feel at all comfortable starting on even a limited basis.

 
Donny Loved Bowling said:
Quality backup QBs are looking especially rare this year. Outside of the top 12, there's only 6-7 other QBs I'd feel at all comfortable starting on even a limited basis.
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agree- that's why having one of the top 8 QBs is a must for methe only backups I'm considering are Edwards, Orton, Garard, Palmer, Hasselbeck, Cassel
 
PPR, 6-points all TDs

Can't answer until I know my draft position.

If it's early, I take a running back in the 1st and might jump on Manning or Rodgers to end the 2nd.

If it's late, I consider Brady or Brees in the 1st.

I know it's considered amateur to jump on a QB so early, but the ignored aspect of waiting on a QB (especially in a QB friendly league) is that you're GAMBLING taking a QB so late in the draft. The tops QBs are for the most part sure things..Shaub, McNabb, etc are NOT.

Depending on your league, Rivers seems like a name that could drop a round or two later than he should..might target him, after accessing the teams selections up until that point of the draft.

 
Drafting from the same spot as last year (10th of 12). Last season, in the 6th/7th I took 2 QBs - the last person to get a starter and the first to get a backup. I may do it again.

In that range this year I expect to see most of these guys available: Cutler, Romo, Ryan, Schaub, Ben, Palmer. Any 2 of those sounds good to me.

I also sometimes spend a late-round pick on a QB with little (perceived) value.

 
Darko M said:
7th round is the ignored aspect of waiting on a QB (especially in a QB friendly league) is that you're GAMBLING taking a QB so late in the draft. The tops QBs are for the most part sure things..Shaub, McNabb, etc are NOT.
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You are gambling regardless. Just ask people who drafted Tom Brady last year how that sure thing worked out. Yes, it was injury, not bad performance; just saying I don't but I don't personally buy into "sure things" as a draft rationale.6-7th round is normally where I pick.
 
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Darko M said:
PPR, 6-points all TDsCan't answer until I know my draft position. If it's early, I take a running back in the 1st and might jump on Manning or Rodgers to end the 2nd.If it's late, I consider Brady or Brees in the 1st.I know it's considered amateur to jump on a QB so early, but the ignored aspect of waiting on a QB (especially in a QB friendly league) is that you're GAMBLING taking a QB so late in the draft. The tops QBs are for the most part sure things..Shaub, McNabb, etc are NOT.
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What makes you think Schaub and McNabb are less than sure things? Are you scared of injury? Schaub has only missed games due to injury following cheap late hits, in both cases the opposing player was fined $25,000 for the violation. HmmmmmmmmmmmAnd McNabb is elite whne on the field too. Wouldn't you rather have a guy guaranteed elite production when he plays and take the quote-unquote gamble that he is healthy and just plug in a waiver guy with a good matchup if he isnt?
 
Mystery Achiever said:
Darko M said:
7th round is the ignored aspect of waiting on a QB (especially in a QB friendly league) is that you're GAMBLING taking a QB so late in the draft. The tops QBs are for the most part sure things..Shaub, McNabb, etc are NOT.
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You are gambling regardless. Just ask people who drafted Tom Brady last year how that sure thing worked out.
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It worked out horribly, thanks for reminding me. :confused: The funny thing is, I was always a wait on a QB guy, but last year at the end of the first, Brady fell to me at 1.10, so I decided to go for it, I had never had the #1 ranked QB before so I picked him. I will never ever pick a QB in the first round again.
 
shredhead said:
Mystery Achiever said:
You are gambling regardless. Just ask people who drafted Tom Brady last year how that sure thing worked out.
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It worked out horribly, thanks for reminding me. :blackdot: The funny thing is, I was always a wait on a QB guy, but last year at the end of the first, Brady fell to me at 1.10, so I decided to go for it, I had never had the #1 ranked QB before so I picked him. I will never ever pick a QB in the first round again.
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Sorry. :) Same thing happened to my cousin. Felt he HAD to take him at 10. Rodgers was his back up, so it worked out. But there was still the opp. cost of a wasted 1st pick.
 
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Quarterbacks

QB is a relatively consistent position. The year-to-year correlation in fantasy points for the top 32 QBs the past 5 seasons is 0.60. This means that if we want the best guess as to how many fantasy points to expect, we would use 60% of their difference from the average. So if the average QB gets 100 points in a season, and the QB we're thinking about drafting got 160 last year, for 2008 we should expect:

100 + (160-100)*0.60 = 136 pts

Regression to the mean gives us our best statistical estimate. It accounts for injuries, natural improvements or declines, change in teammates, change in opponents--everything. We can say QBs are about 60% consistent.

QBs are relatively scarce too. After the top 1 or 2 guys, there is a steep fall-off in performance illustrated by the graph below. (Each line is for one of the past five seasons. 'Rank' refers to actual performance, not order in which players were drafted.) Unless you get one of those top guys, you can wait to pick up a QB in your draft, which is what typically happens each year.

Fantasy leagues differ in size, but a typical one may have about 10 or 12 teams. One good measure of scarcity would be the difference in fantasy points between the top tier of the best 10 QBs and the 2nd tier of 10 QBs. I chose tiers of 10 because in a typical league, if you pass up taking a QB in the current round, you can expect that the 10th next-best QB will be available for your next pick, even in a worst-case scenario. For QBs, the difference between the 1st tier and 2nd tier, is 87 pts. The difference between the 2nd and 3rd tiers is 76.4 pts.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/08/fa...t-strategy.html

 
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It's SCARY how many owners are targetting McNabb, Schaub and Palmer. That tells me that they are likely to go earlier than their ADP.

 
Deuce said:
It's SCARY how many owners are targetting McNabb, Schaub and Palmer. That tells me that they are likely to go earlier than their ADP.
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It also tells you that the higher ranked players may also slip. A little game of chicken.
 
Mystery Achiever said:
shredhead said:
Mystery Achiever said:
You are gambling regardless. Just ask people who drafted Tom Brady last year how that sure thing worked out.
Click to expand...
It worked out horribly, thanks for reminding me. :banned: The funny thing is, I was always a wait on a QB guy, but last year at the end of the first, Brady fell to me at 1.10, so I decided to go for it, I had never had the #1 ranked QB before so I picked him. I will never ever pick a QB in the first round again.
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Sorry. ;) Same thing happened to my cousin. Felt he HAD to take him at 10. Rodgers was his back up, so it worked out. But there was still the opp. cost of a wasted 1st pick.
Click to expand...
Same thing could be said whomever you draft in the first round. If Peterson is your 1st round pick & he hurts his kneein the 3rd qtr of week one & is out for the year your team will probably be screwed.
 
Drafting a QB in rounds 7 to 10 depending on who is still on the board. If there is great depth at RB or WR, I would rather stockpile talent. It's ok to have 5 RBs and 3 WR after 8 rounds.

Multiple studs at RB & WR will carry your team and you can plug in a 10 point QB from the QB15-22 type guys like Manning, Hassellbeck, or Edwards.

QB is the easiest fantasy position to trade for in a start-1 QB league. For example in 2008 if a guy had Aaron Rodgers + Drew Brees... he probably traded one for a RB2 or WR1/2 type player.

 
I took Brady in the first round last year and although that didn't work out so well, I'd do it again. My league is 6 pt passing TD's plus 3 bonus pts for td's over 50 yards, it makes QB's very valuable. Everybody that wins or finishes in the superbowl have one of the top QB's.

I've changed my drafting statugy the last 2 years, by taking a QB either in the first round or in the second round. I've been in the superbowl both years I've done it. Although, last year it was because I picked up Rodgers very quickly. Last year, I used VBD and with my leagues' scoring system, QB's were the most valuable.

 
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I'm not necessarily against taking a QB fairly early, but it won't fall that way for me this year. I'm drafting 9th in a 10 team league. 9th and 12 seem too early for a QB. By the time it comes back in the 3rd round, Manning and Rodgers (live in GB) will be gone. None of the others will be good value in 3rd or 4th. Then a few more will go. I'll probably end up with Schaub and Hasselbeck. Maybe Palmer or Ryan. So somewhere in the middle rounds.

 
RalphMouth said:
I have always been the one who waits till the 7th or higher rounds for their QB but this year I really think after Brees, Brady, Manning, Rogers, Warner, Romo, Rivers and McNabb there's a huge drop to the next level of QBs.Schaub could have a breakout year but he's yet to show that he can stay healthy for more an entire season.Palmer could return but do you trust his elbow injury that kept him out most of last seson.. the elbow he didn't have surgery on ?This is the year I target a QB in the 4th round. I'm in the 12th spot & I think by the time the draft comes back to meat #60 pick in the 5th round those top eight guys will be gone.
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I'm targeting Brady in the 1st. BMW(Brady, Moss and Welker) will be in their 3rd season together now with this system. Sprinkle in the occasional deep ball to Galloway as well. I have him at at 4500 and 40. NE is not a rushing team so that is not a threat. Yes I know Brady is coming off of injury but I predict he is smart enough to not take the big hit this year. The ball will come out(thrown) before Brady goes down IMO.
 
[i'm targeting Brady in the 1st. BMW(Brady, Moss and Welker) will be in their 3rd season together now with this system. Sprinkle in the occasional deep ball to Galloway as well. I have him at at 4500 and 40. NE is not a rushing team so that is not a threat. Yes I know Brady is coming off of injury but I predict he is smart enough to not take the big hit this year. The ball will come out(thrown) before Brady goes down IMO.

How soon in the 1st are you willing to take Brady?

 
Palmer is my primary target for QB this year. Where I take him probably depends on how quickly QBs are dropping off the board. If Rivers was somehow still available in the seventh, I would strongly consider him as well.

I've done QBBC a several times before and it just isn't an enjoyable experience. Despite what many others spout out repeatedly, mediocre QBs can most definitely put up lousy numbers against great match ups. IMO, one single QB you can count on throughout the season is the way to go.

Round 6-7 is probably where a QB will be selected in most of my leagues.

 
im going

rb wr wr rb rb qb

you will get mcnabb, warner, romo, and an outside shot at rivers.

my system is bulletproof.

 
Have the 1st pick in a 12 team league and I'll probably go back to back in rounds 10-11. After the top few there is not a big difference in ppg. I'm targeting Orton and Edwards.

 
dansav said:
im going

rb wr wr rb rb qb

you will get mcnabb, warner, romo, and an outside shot at rivers.

my system is bulletproof.
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In a 10 team league maybe, and then only if you pick very early in the 6th. But not Warner. McNabb would be your best shot.
 
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I always wait until late on a QB, unless some great value inexplicably falls to me. This year I will probably target some combination of Schaub/Palmer/Orton/Big Ben/etc and play the matchups between them. That strategy has worked well for me in the past, allowing me to get top production from a platoon of QB's and focus on the other positions early.

 
I am drafting in the 2 slot, and will go rb-qb-rb (most likely) or rb-wr-qb if what I deem a quality wr makes it back to me at the turn. I know the guys in this league, and we are qb slanted in scoring. It will be Manning or Rodgers in the late second or early third. Every mock, and each year I have done I build a good deep in the playoffs team with this way. Brady in 2007 in the second, and Brees in the second last year.

 
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