What to do in drafts where the owners heavily favor one position over (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

I'll tailor this to my 12 team non-PPR redraft league, but the idea is for a general strategy discussion. The owners in my league heavily favor RBs, and in the past few years you'll see 18-20 RBs off the board in the first two rounds. After the top 25-30 RBs are gone, usually by the mid 4th, WRs, TEs and QBs start flying off the board. If I draft according to any of the FBG cheatsheets/rankings, my team would end up looking like Andre Johnson/Roddy White/Peyton Manning/VJax after four rounds, and then my RBs would be Beanie, Jacobs, and Helu, or some garbage like that. When you're in a situation like this, where you KNOW there will be a premium paid by almost all of the other owners for one position, at least early in the draft, do you "jump on board" and get at least one RB before the position is too thin, or do you grab the top value at other positions and grab whatever you can off the scrap heap later?

 

[jon_mx]

Assuming you don't have one of the top picks, I would target RB's in the 4, 5, and 7. Grab WR, WR, and QB in the first rounds. Of course nothing is written in stone, If a particular back you really like fell for some reason and you can go RB earlier. It really comes down to picking the best player available that you will start.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

IMO this depends too much on draft slot, roster requirements, etc. to be useful as a general discussion. But if I had to try to come up with some general advice, I'd say you should try to start the runs right before they'd naturally occur. For example, if you're pretty sure the WR run is going to start in the 4th, go with the flow in the first two rounds and take 1-2 RBs so you're not stuck with nothing at that position, but then grab a top WR in the 3rd, grab a top QB in the 4th, etc. Then when everyone follows your lead and starts grabbing the lesser WRs and QBs, you can grab another RB or two for quality depth.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

IMO this depends too much on draft slot, roster requirements, etc. to be useful as a general discussion. But if I had to try to come up with some general advice, I'd say you should try to start the runs right before they'd naturally occur. For example, if you're pretty sure the WR run is going to start in the 4th, go with the flow in the first two rounds and take 1-2 RBs so you're not stuck with nothing at that position, but then grab a top WR in the 3rd, grab a top QB in the 4th, etc. Then when everyone follows your lead and starts grabbing the lesser WRs and QBs, you can grab another RB or two for quality depth.

...and if for some reason you don't get to start the runs at other positions, don't be in a hurry to jump on the caboose - e.g. if 9 WRs fly off the board don't feel the need to take the 10th right away. I see this as a common mistake in drafts. You want to be leading the direction of the draft, not bringing up the rear. Every draft is different, just let it come to you and take the best value you can.

 

[GregR_2]

At it's simplest, just put together a list of what your team looks like if you follow the herd, versus what it looks like if you don't. Add up the projected fantasy points of your starters and you have a better answer than any of us can give you, since you are the only one who knows your league's tendencies and you feel about the players you'd draft.

From the standpoint of understanding what positional runs do... they create extra value for the players at that position. So the more the run, the more correct that following it becomes. However, there will be places where it isn't correct to follow it, and the only way to find those places is to figure out the players you'd be taking and compare the results.

The easiest way to illustrate how a run makes following it more correct is to look at the case that you start the run. You can draft RB1 and RB 24 in the first two rounds and then get WR1. Or you could take WR1 in the first round and you'd get RBs 23 and 24 if the rest of the league still drafted all RBs. Since the teams are the same other than one has RB1 and the other has RB23, obviously following the run was better.

Of course in reality it's more complex than that uber simple one, but the same issue holds. If not many WRs come off the board before you pick again, the drop off at WR if you wait is probably less than the drop off at RB if you wait. At some point though that does stop being the case, so go do the work to figure out if your draft slot is at one of those points.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Zig when they zag. Take Vick and some stud WR's and hope 1 or 2 of your RB's works out, like it should. Beanie and Jacobs could score some serious TD's this year. You might be pretty unbeatable if that happened.

Why not talk to your league about adjusting scoring or format so you could create a winning team with many different draft strategies. I think it's so lame when league scoring demands that you have to take RB's early to compete. It's one of the reasons I play in 10 team leagues instead of 12. I'm in the minority I'm sure, but I think they're more competitive if you set them up right. 12 team and above leaguers like to get all puffed up thinking their leagues are more valid. Not true. 10 teamers are just as competitive but your hand isn't forced in the early rounds by the lack of every down RB's in the NFL.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

completely depends on your scoring system, lineup requirements (flex, etc), and draft slot.....

but it sounds like you would really need to look at taking a RB with one of your first two picks....not sure I'd want the Jacobs/Beanie type of combo all year....not sure you would be able to make up the points you would be losing to the field each week at RB....maybe you could, but it might be tough...

 

[bigmiiiiike]

The good news is I have the #2 pick. The league is standard non-ppr scoring (4 points for passing TD, 6 for every other TD), and start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 D/ST, so pretty RB friendly. The league also had 3rd Round Reversal (pick 12-1 in the 3rd, then back to 1-12 in the 4th). I'll definitely go with AP, Foster or CJ3 in the 1st, the question then becomes would I rather go with Fitz and VJax in rounds 2-3, or something like Green/Mathews/Ingram in Round 2 and Bradshaw/Moreno/Daniel Thomas in Round 3, or some combination. After round 3, I can guarantee that the best RB available will be a Benson-quality guy, and there will still be top 10 WRs available and all but probably Vick and Rodgers available at QB, and all TEs available.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

looks like I, like most others, would like to try and use RB at the flex as much as possible in this league so I can why they go fast.....especially with only 4 pts per passing TD...

 

[Pickle Rody]

If this league awarded 6 points per passing TD the RB's wouldn't be valued so highly and it would dramatically change the way the draft unfolds. The scoring structure combined with the flex capabilities are what's driving the RB value here. Something to consider, that's all. It's sometimes difficult to get an entire league to see a point of view that would in essence improve the league if the rules were altered, but it might not be a bad idea to try. Then again, as others have mentioned, you could adjust accordingly and still end up with a quality squad. Let the other teams set the market value while you go in another direction and start runs on other positions.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

If this league awarded 6 points per passing TD the RB's wouldn't be valued so highly and it would dramatically change the way the draft unfolds. The scoring structure combined with the flex capabilities are what's driving the RB value here. Something to consider, that's all. It's sometimes difficult to get an entire league to see a point of view that would in essence improve the league if the rules were altered, but it might not be a bad idea to try. Then again, as others have mentioned, you could adjust accordingly and still end up with a quality squad. Let the other teams set the market value while you go in another direction and start runs on other positions.

i agree with this except for the last part....if 20 RB's are going in the first 24 picks, I am not sure you try to go other directions and start runs if the herd is committed to blasting through the RB's which it sounds like they are.....if your attempt at starting runs fails you are in a world of hurt as other owners start getting RB3's to fill their flex and even RB4's to cover bye weeks and injuries if many like to have the flex be a RB.....

 

[PinkydaPimp]

a few rules of thumb that i like to follow:

1. Zig when they zag(as someone already mentioned). This means value should be falling to you.

2. try to start runs, not follow them. You ideally want to be the person who starts a run at a given position(or at least one of the first to join) because you will be getting the best talent.

really, i wouldnt worry about what other people are doing. Just let the draft come to you and grab value when it falls to you. Do this and you will have a great team. Nowadays, with so many rbbc's its easier to grab a viable rb later in the draft or off waivers.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

a few rules of thumb that i like to follow:

1. Zig when they zag(as someone already mentioned). This means value should be falling to you.

2. try to start runs, not follow them. You ideally want to be the person who starts a run at a given position(or at least one of the first to join) because you will be getting the best talent.

really, i wouldnt worry about what other people are doing. Just let the draft come to you and grab value when it falls to you. Do this and you will have a great team. Nowadays, with so many rbbc's its easier to grab a viable rb later in the draft or off waivers.

these are fairly general statements and FF101 type stuff really, but this is a pretty extreme example of a league where because of it's set up and herd mentality, your advice might not be the best option here....

 

[PinkydaPimp]

If this league awarded 6 points per passing TD the RB's wouldn't be valued so highly and it would dramatically change the way the draft unfolds. The scoring structure combined with the flex capabilities are what's driving the RB value here. Something to consider, that's all. It's sometimes difficult to get an entire league to see a point of view that would in essence improve the league if the rules were altered, but it might not be a bad idea to try. Then again, as others have mentioned, you could adjust accordingly and still end up with a quality squad. Let the other teams set the market value while you go in another direction and start runs on other positions.

i agree with this except for the last part....if 20 RB's are going in the first 24 picks, I am not sure you try to go other directions and start runs if the herd is committed to blasting through the RB's which it sounds like they are.....if your attempt at starting runs fails you are in a world of hurt as other owners start getting RB3's to fill their flex and even RB4's to cover bye weeks and injuries if many like to have the flex be a RB.....

If that is the case, he would likely be stacked with qb1, wr1, wr2... they should produce the points to cover the lapse at rb. and if one of his late rounders hits, then hes going to be unstoppable. also, he could even be able to swing a trade to one of the many teams that are deficient at wr.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

a few rules of thumb that i like to follow:

1. Zig when they zag(as someone already mentioned). This means value should be falling to you.

2. try to start runs, not follow them. You ideally want to be the person who starts a run at a given position(or at least one of the first to join) because you will be getting the best talent.

really, i wouldnt worry about what other people are doing. Just let the draft come to you and grab value when it falls to you. Do this and you will have a great team. Nowadays, with so many rbbc's its easier to grab a viable rb later in the draft or off waivers.

these are fairly general statements and FF101 type stuff really, but this is a pretty extreme example of a league where because of it's set up and herd mentality, your advice might not be the best option here....

i am assuming standard ff rules and scoring. Now if the scoring is extremely weighted to favor rbs(rbs get 8 pts for tds and more pts per yard then the other positions.....) then you have to take that into account. however, generally speaking, in my experience, those general statements always work out well. its following the herd that typically gets you in trouble. But as i said, you really have to just take the draft as it comes and grab the value as it falls. I dont go in with a strategy that i am going to draft rb/rb/wr/qb/rb.... If value falls at qb with my first pick, i draft that. yes, they are general statements, but i think many people have trouble sticking to it when in the middle of a draft.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

If this league awarded 6 points per passing TD the RB's wouldn't be valued so highly and it would dramatically change the way the draft unfolds. The scoring structure combined with the flex capabilities are what's driving the RB value here. Something to consider, that's all. It's sometimes difficult to get an entire league to see a point of view that would in essence improve the league if the rules were altered, but it might not be a bad idea to try. Then again, as others have mentioned, you could adjust accordingly and still end up with a quality squad. Let the other teams set the market value while you go in another direction and start runs on other positions.

i agree with this except for the last part....if 20 RB's are going in the first 24 picks, I am not sure you try to go other directions and start runs if the herd is committed to blasting through the RB's which it sounds like they are.....if your attempt at starting runs fails you are in a world of hurt as other owners start getting RB3's to fill their flex and even RB4's to cover bye weeks and injuries if many like to have the flex be a RB.....

If that is the case, he would likely be stacked with qb1, wr1, wr2... they should produce the points to cover the lapse at rb. and if one of his late rounders hits, then hes going to be unstoppable. also, he could even be able to swing a trade to one of the many teams that are deficient at wr.

I don't know if you should go into a draft with the mentality that I will be banking on a trade later.....if most of the owners in this league have the mentality that they will use a RB at the flex spot, which it sounds like they do......if you wait until the 4th round and the top 30 RB's are gone before you have even taken your first.....you would HAVE to hit on one, most likely two late rounders to pull this off.....so I disagree that you head into this draft with the swing for the fences, I'll make a trade later, and hit on my late round RB's strategy.....that is a lot of things that have to go your way....not saying he couldn't make up the points, but with most owners starting 3 RB's, it's not like you are trying to cover 2 spots at RB, you are essentially covering 3 RB's.....and without it being PPR, and only 4 points for passing TD's, recovering that type of production is difficult.....not a lot of places to "make up ground" on the field....

 

[Tchula]

If you use draft dominator you can do a mock draft in less than ten minutes. Weight the RB's heavily to simulate your leagues drafting style. Do several mock drafts with different strategies to see how strong your team is using the different strategies.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

If this league awarded 6 points per passing TD the RB's wouldn't be valued so highly and it would dramatically change the way the draft unfolds. The scoring structure combined with the flex capabilities are what's driving the RB value here. Something to consider, that's all. It's sometimes difficult to get an entire league to see a point of view that would in essence improve the league if the rules were altered, but it might not be a bad idea to try. Then again, as others have mentioned, you could adjust accordingly and still end up with a quality squad. Let the other teams set the market value while you go in another direction and start runs on other positions.

i agree with this except for the last part....if 20 RB's are going in the first 24 picks, I am not sure you try to go other directions and start runs if the herd is committed to blasting through the RB's which it sounds like they are.....if your attempt at starting runs fails you are in a world of hurt as other owners start getting RB3's to fill their flex and even RB4's to cover bye weeks and injuries if many like to have the flex be a RB.....

If that is the case, he would likely be stacked with qb1, wr1, wr2... they should produce the points to cover the lapse at rb. and if one of his late rounders hits, then hes going to be unstoppable. also, he could even be able to swing a trade to one of the many teams that are deficient at wr.

I don't know if you should go into a draft with the mentality that I will be banking on a trade later.....if most of the owners in this league have the mentality that they will use a RB at the flex spot, which it sounds like they do......if you wait until the 4th round and the top 30 RB's are gone before you have even taken your first.....you would HAVE to hit on one, most likely two late rounders to pull this off.....so I disagree that you head into this draft with the swing for the fences, I'll make a trade later, and hit on my late round RB's strategy.....that is a lot of things that have to go your way....not saying he couldn't make up the points, but with most owners starting 3 RB's, it's not like you are trying to cover 2 spots at RB, you are essentially covering 3 RB's.....and without it being PPR, and only 4 points for passing TD's, recovering that type of production is difficult.....not a lot of places to "make up ground" on the field....

never said he should go in banking on a trade. just that he could get lucky and do so. as i said above he shouldn't go in with any set strategy other than to grab value when it falls to him. i see no sense in grabbing a rb just to grab one if the value it simply not there. especially when you can likely then wait a few more rounds and grab another rb that wil score the same. they might not be as sexy of a name or pick, but can get you those points nevertheless.

 

[We Tigers]

Balance. Nothing says you can't take one of the position in demand and one of the position where there's still top-tier value.

In your specific case, you said you're picking #2? Your league's mentality works great for you. You'll get one of the top RBs of your choice, and then will probably still be getting your pick of top-5 WRs and top-3 QBs when the snake comes back around to you.

 

[brainee]

I've been in a league like this (drafts favoring a position) for several years now. For some reason, RBs always dropped below where I thought they were valued. And the first time I drafted with this group, I kind of screwed myself up. I just couldn't help taking the "value" at RB, and wound up with an unbalanced team that struggled (making it worse, no one wanted to trade for my RBs). The league also uses IDPs, but to my drafting surprise no one (except me) seemed to put much value into the position. In following years I adjusted my draft approach, and have since dominated the league. I learned to take elite players at QB and WR in the first part of the draft. So many good RBs drop that I can take a bunch of "upside" guys in a row in the middle rounds and have a good RB group eventually shake out of it. And I can safely leave IDPs to the late rounds (along with K and DEF).

That's just one specific example. But I think the lesson is that knowing your league-mates will draft with reproducible tendencies puts you in a position of power. And by shifting up your drafting strategy (even if it goes away from convention) you can put together powerful squads. In the OP's case, the approach put forth in post #8 sounds good. With the #2 pick, the run doesn't affect you - you'll get an elite RB. If they overdraft RBs in the next few rounds, you're in good position to get a great price on elite talent at other spots. Just don't lose track of the RB position and end up with someone unstartable as your RB2.

 

[Clifford]

If this league awarded 6 points per passing TD the RB's wouldn't be valued so highly and it would dramatically change the way the draft unfolds. The scoring structure combined with the flex capabilities are what's driving the RB value here. Something to consider, that's all. It's sometimes difficult to get an entire league to see a point of view that would in essence improve the league if the rules were altered, but it might not be a bad idea to try. Then again, as others have mentioned, you could adjust accordingly and still end up with a quality squad. Let the other teams set the market value while you go in another direction and start runs on other positions.

i agree with this except for the last part....if 20 RB's are going in the first 24 picks, I am not sure you try to go other directions and start runs if the herd is committed to blasting through the RB's which it sounds like they are.....if your attempt at starting runs fails you are in a world of hurt as other owners start getting RB3's to fill their flex and even RB4's to cover bye weeks and injuries if many like to have the flex be a RB.....

If that is the case, he would likely be stacked with qb1, wr1, wr2... they should produce the points to cover the lapse at rb. and if one of his late rounders hits, then hes going to be unstoppable. also, he could even be able to swing a trade to one of the many teams that are deficient at wr.

Tried this in a mock where the rbs were all going early. I picked late and there was no good value at rb in the first or second, so I took white, nicks, Brees and Finley with my first four, and I think ended up with Felix, spiller, Ryan Williams, Murray, and Deline Carter. Chances are a few of those guys pan out but it's risky. There's no denying that wr is the more volatile position in terms of game to game consistency, but being able to get that monster wr game like white And nicks had last year can often make the difference between a win and a loss.

 

[FantasyTrader]

completely depends on your scoring system, lineup requirements (flex, etc), and draft slot.....but it sounds like you would really need to look at taking a RB with one of your first two picks....not sure I'd want the Jacobs/Beanie type of combo all year....not sure you would be able to make up the points you would be losing to the field each week at RB....maybe you could, but it might be tough...

Your draft position would be paramount in answering this question.

 

[De Novo]

Zig when they zag, but I would also say that you should be willing to take a RB if he is in the top 5 players left on your board and within a reasonable number of spots of best-available. If you have an early pick, I'd go stud RB and then let the value fall to you, picking up a DeAngelo in the 4th/5th if available, and take players like Felix Jones, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Mike Tolbert, Michael Bush in the later rounds if they represent decent but not great value.

In short, you can't wait until the 7th round to take a RB just because a WR, TE, QB, etc. is tops on your board. You needs RBs.