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What to do with Blackmon in dynasty leagues? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter thaniz
- Start date
Riffraff
Footballguy
Isn't it kinda like getting pennies on a penny value right about now?
You have to be betting on him overcoming addiction, overcoming his own personal issues, overcoming the odds of making it back on a squad, and then overcoming the odds that he's still a top quality player for whatever team gives him a chance. Then of course, overcoming the odds that he doesn't relapse thereafter.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Overreact much? He has to overcome the odds of getting back on a team? Of still being a quality player when he's all of 24 next year? Nice schtick.
Riffraff
Footballguy
You sure the odds of a guy getting banned from the NFL for a year minimum and then coming back to be awesome are pretty high?
MAC_32
Footballguy
If a panicking owner will trade him for a spare part I would do it.
SportsGuru311
Footballguy
I got rid of him on my team
ghostguy123
Footballguy
well, trade deadline just passed in all my leagues, so............................
I would try and buy low, but certainly not sell low in the one league I have him (FFPC), and that is even with smaller rosters
I would try and buy low, but certainly not sell low in the one league I have him (FFPC), and that is even with smaller rosters
Milkman
Footballguy
My plan is to hold him until he comes back and hope he has a couple monster games because I'm going to trade him as soon as he does.
It's my understanding that basically he can never have a beer again while he is in the NFL. How can you ever fully trust him? I mean he pisses hot one more time and I doubt anybody ever gives him another shot.
It's my understanding that basically he can never have a beer again while he is in the NFL. How can you ever fully trust him? I mean he pisses hot one more time and I doubt anybody ever gives him another shot.
CoachJankySpanky
Footballguy
I offered Andre Johnson and a 3rd for him in a dyno where I am stacked. No reply yet. I can afford to take that chance and it is definitely a better offer than I've seen on other boards. It's a gamble but one I can live with if it doesn't pan out.
EBF
Footballguy
I certainly wouldn't sell unless someone overpaid. I think it's highly unlikely that you could trade him for another player with real difference maker ppg potential, so I'll be keeping him and hoping that he can bounce back in the future. I think the biggest difference now is that I'll always view him as a luxury and not a core piece of my teams. You can never trust him again. It's better to look at him with the expectation that he probably won't be available. But when he is available, he'll slot right into the lineup. You just can't ever count on him.
I'd be willing to buy for a 2nd round rookie pick. I wouldn't sell for anything less than a 1st. Since nobody is likely to pay that, I'll probably hold. He could be back on the field in a year putting up top 12-15 numbers.
I'd be willing to buy for a 2nd round rookie pick. I wouldn't sell for anything less than a 1st. Since nobody is likely to pay that, I'll probably hold. He could be back on the field in a year putting up top 12-15 numbers.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I'm buying if I can get him crazy cheap (Marvin Jones, Stephen Hill, or that kind of prospect), and if I owned him, I'd be happy to sell him for anything resembling top-30 WR value (Alshon Jeffery, Cordarelle Patterson, Cecil Shorts, Danny Amendola, etc).
Tangent, but I hate trade deadlines in dynasty leagues. They seem counterproductive.ghostguy123 said:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Kill him?
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
In my auction keeper league, he's a hold because it only cost $5 to get him. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that he's finally hit bottom this time and takes this last chance to heart and takes the necessary steps to get clean & sober.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Isn't getting pennies on a penny = multiples of his value? like, 5 pennies on a penny is 5x return. I'd take that. Pennies on the dollar is a fraction of his value, like $.05 on $1.00. So, the extreme of pennies on a dollar is pennies on the five dollar, or ten dollar. Just saying.Riffraff said:
Bobbyn2022
Footballguy
I have him for $1 in a keeper league where u can keep him for 4 years I thought about letting him go but then another owner would have him at that price and u never know if he gets dropped by the jags a team like the Pats may take a risk and we've seen his potential. The kid is a stud but man he can't lay the weed down. So dumb...
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I offered Andre for him to a team on the playoff bubble needing a WR...........rejected.
The guy is notorious for not doing a deal unless it is CLEARLY beyond CLEARLY in his favor, so not too surprised.
The guy is notorious for not doing a deal unless it is CLEARLY beyond CLEARLY in his favor, so not too surprised.
cstu
Footballguy
Now is the absolute worst time to trade him. Even if you're a 100% believer that he'll get suspended again, wait until he goes to rehab, is reinstated and the media starts with glowing stories about how he's a changed man. That's when you trade him, not now.
And certainly not for the likes of Marvin Jones or a 2nd round pick like I've seen.
Riffraff
Footballguy
True enough. He's like a penny stock now.
I consider him like I did Austin Collie before his back-up role this year. Great PPG when or if he plays, but expect that it might not last. Collie could end his career with 1 hit; Blackmon can end his career with 1 drink (assuming the latest suspension is "only" for alcohol abuse). He's a young 20s millionaire that may have to avoid the party scene (and post game team parties) just to resist temptation. Easier said than done if he's being a good teammate. It can get real lonely sitting in your hotel room while others are having a good time. The Jag's (still his brothers in arms) getting beat can induce a little depression in itself. All it takes is a trigger or peer pressure to relapse. Honestly hope I'm wrong and he beats the odds and has a very long career.
bonesman
Footballguy
bought him in a 16 team contract league: Stevie Johnson (2 years 1.5 mill or so), Avery and a 2nd for Blackmon (4 years, 2.5ish mill) and a 3rd... cap is like 45 mill and 5 years is the max contract. I already have Shorts, which kind of blows, but the Jax QB situation should be much improved over the next few years.
I buying wherever I can and will pay a fair premium.
So far I bought for Moreno and a late 1st.
Then I bought for Jeffery and v.brown.
Blackmon has a year to get his mind right. After his last incident he stated " he had no substance problem" I knew he would be suspended again. It takes hitting rock bottom to wake up. I am betting this happens. He will get professional help. Perhaps he got some Brandon Marshall in him mentally.
He's a top 7wr when on the field and I suspect he has a better qb next season.
So far I bought for Moreno and a late 1st.
Then I bought for Jeffery and v.brown.
Blackmon has a year to get his mind right. After his last incident he stated " he had no substance problem" I knew he would be suspended again. It takes hitting rock bottom to wake up. I am betting this happens. He will get professional help. Perhaps he got some Brandon Marshall in him mentally.
He's a top 7wr when on the field and I suspect he has a better qb next season.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I think the most successful example I can think of with a player being banned is Ricky Williams, he was rumored to fail something like 5 drug tests and was banned for over a year, this was before the new protocols I think. I venture to say that even with his problems and weirdness Ricky had a better head on his shoulders and better work ethnic to overcome or atleast delay his drug use so he could return to the NFL and have a couple of productive years. For those holding and buying low, this is the best you can hope for IMO and your going to be holding for a long time.
He is not going to return from this and be a stud.
He is not going to return from this and be a stud.
He not going to return from this and be a stud? Did the alcohol make him play better? I dare to say he comes back even better if he kicks the dependency.
If he gets help and returns next season he's an automatic top 10 wr on the field. He's a beast of WR. One week ago it would have taken a very good offer to get him.
Treat this like a IR because basically he is injured in his substance dependency. Pray he gets proper help and he comes back and lights this league up like he capable of.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
The deck is really, really stacked against him for getting back in less than a yr. And have you reviewed the program, pretty much he'll be hounded by the league for drug tests and counseling sessions for the rest of his career. Even if he stays clean, and I hope he does, all it takes is a little bad luck like missing a phone call from the league at 4:00am to cause a failure and boom; suspended again.
If he can be the get over this and return to stud status he'll be the 1st one ever.
Riffraff
Footballguy
I would, except if he misses/fails a testing session for any reason, he's banned for life... not listed on the weekly injury report as probable/questionable. I'm guessing FF players think being in this level of the testing program is a joke.
I can't think of any other time this situation has happened. A stud player on the field with an organization behind him has been in this situation.
So saying this will be the first ever is misleading. Now guys who have had league issues and figured it out,
Rickey Williams Brandon Marshall lynch
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Treat it like Danario Alexander. He's on the IR now. He's been on the IR in the past. There's a great chance he'll be on the IR again in the future. Hopefully he just manages to get you a few great games every now and then in between his stints on IR.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Funny, I'm also trying to trade Moreno for Blackmon, except with the late 1st on the other side of the equation (Moreno for Blackmon + late 1st). And I wouldn't even do that if I wasn't already out of it and gunning for the #1 pick (which means Moreno is holding me back).
cstu
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
JaxBill
Footballguy
Caldwell has come out in support of Blackmon but his rookie contract was specifically drawn up to protect the Jags with larger roster bonuses. Jags are looking at 3 Mil in roster bonuses and 5 Mil in base salary for next two years for Blackmon.
http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2013/11/1/5056884/justin-blackmon-jaguars-contract-future
They probably won't cut him, but they have a decision to make in March.
http://www.bigcatcountry.com/2013/11/1/5056884/justin-blackmon-jaguars-contract-future
They probably won't cut him, but they have a decision to make in March.
cstu
Footballguy
Rather than one day at time like Blackmon, the Jags will be taking it one year at a time - they owe him just under $3.8M next year.
If they trust him to put the bottle down they keep him, if not they let him go.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I have him in one league, hold.
In another his owner is tied with me for the division and unlikely to trade him without getting something that would help him now, which I won't do.
Third league is salary cap and he has an expensive contact, so not going there.
In another his owner is tied with me for the division and unlikely to trade him without getting something that would help him now, which I won't do.
Third league is salary cap and he has an expensive contact, so not going there.
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JaxBill
Footballguy
True, but to be more specific, in March they have to stroke a check for 1.7 Mil to a guy who played 4 games for them last year and there's another six months of holding your breath before there's a game that counts.
smarchit
Footballguy
He's a circumstantial lottery ticket. I wouldn't break the bank for him, but if you can get him cheap and have room to hold, it's foolish not to do so.
I bought low in a 16 team league where I have Torrey, Welker, Floyd, Randle, Shorts, and Hartline. Sent a 2014 3rd (likely late round) and Kris Durham to an empty rebuilding owner for Blackmon.
In another 16 team, my team is young and struggling this year. After overachieving last year, it is destined for a high pick this year, having lost Cobb and Doug Martin. I sent Jordan Reed, Jermaine Kearse, and Hankerson to a contender for Carolina DEF, Blackmon, and Jared Cook. Also have Eiffert, Owen Daniels, and Garrett Graham on this roster. Carolina is the key piece for me, with Blackmon being a lottery ticket. Hopefully I can trade my now extra DEF (JAX) for an extra draft pick.
He was sent to the WW in my shallowest dynasty league. Claimed by another team.
My other two leagues, I didn't have the roster space to justify attempting a trade for him at this point.
I bought low in a 16 team league where I have Torrey, Welker, Floyd, Randle, Shorts, and Hartline. Sent a 2014 3rd (likely late round) and Kris Durham to an empty rebuilding owner for Blackmon.
In another 16 team, my team is young and struggling this year. After overachieving last year, it is destined for a high pick this year, having lost Cobb and Doug Martin. I sent Jordan Reed, Jermaine Kearse, and Hankerson to a contender for Carolina DEF, Blackmon, and Jared Cook. Also have Eiffert, Owen Daniels, and Garrett Graham on this roster. Carolina is the key piece for me, with Blackmon being a lottery ticket. Hopefully I can trade my now extra DEF (JAX) for an extra draft pick.
He was sent to the WW in my shallowest dynasty league. Claimed by another team.
My other two leagues, I didn't have the roster space to justify attempting a trade for him at this point.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Justin Blackmon has been dropped by 94259 teams in Yahoo leagues
Shutout
Footballguy
Is he Charles Rogers or cris carter? In a game of strategy, luck, and swinging for the fences, it doesn't get much more interesting than this.
If you can buy him for anything reasonable, I think you buy in dynasty because you KNOW he is going to get an opportunity to play again..pretty good chance of it. And all it takes is for him to get that chance and you can, at a minimum likely sell him for more than you buy him for today.
Toss in the x-factor of what happens if he gets released and goes to somewhere else, like maybe Kansas City or miami or Carolina and then that's enough to generate the fantasy buzz.
You never know with players like this but you know what he is capable of IF he gets his head straight.
If you can buy him for anything reasonable, I think you buy in dynasty because you KNOW he is going to get an opportunity to play again..pretty good chance of it. And all it takes is for him to get that chance and you can, at a minimum likely sell him for more than you buy him for today.
Toss in the x-factor of what happens if he gets released and goes to somewhere else, like maybe Kansas City or miami or Carolina and then that's enough to generate the fantasy buzz.
You never know with players like this but you know what he is capable of IF he gets his head straight.
