What to make of Adrian Peterson thus far? (1 Viewer)

[shadyridr]

90% Chance he finishes with fewer than 1000 yards rushing.

70% Chance he finishes with fewer than 900 yards rushing

50% Chance he finishes with fewer than 800 yards rushing.

Goal line carries aren't his. Slim chance they risk that with Gerhart on board.... so I see him with single Digit TD's combined.

Overall he's looking at impressive numbers for someone 8 months out from a totally blown out knee.... but a pretty big bust for an early/mid 2nd round pick (I've seen him go in the 1st). You're essentially paying for around 1500 yards and 10 Touchdowns. I think we're looking at RB15ish numbers with a bit more downside than upside.

My .02.

in the 2nd round?

 

[[icon]]

90% Chance he finishes with fewer than 1000 yards rushing. 70% Chance he finishes with fewer than 900 yards rushing50% Chance he finishes with fewer than 800 yards rushing. Goal line carries aren't his. Slim chance they risk that with Gerhart on board.... so I see him with single Digit TD's combined. Overall he's looking at impressive numbers for someone 8 months out from a totally blown out knee.... but a pretty big bust for an early/mid 2nd round pick (I've seen him go in the 1st). You're essentially paying for around 1500 yards and 10 Touchdowns. I think we're looking at RB15ish numbers with a bit more downside than upside. My .02.

70% chance of less than 900 yards rushing? Really? Care to make a wager or are those %'s just inflated and made up?

All projections are in a way "made up".My source of these numbers are I'm expecting a drop in carries from his usual 280-300 to around 200-225 as I don't think he goes straight back into workhorse back week one. I'm also expecting his YPC to dip a bit due to what I will suspect to be at least a SLIGHT loss in cutting and explosiveness due to completely frying his knee. I think 4.1-4.2 YPC (down from 4.5ish) is realistic. I also think there is a better than average chance that he experiences a setback at some point during the season where he has to rest due to pain/inflammation in his surgically repaired knee. I don't pull those numbers from thin air...If you're asking me if I'd like to wager, sure... I'll take 3:2 odds (since I said 70pct chance) on whatever sum you'd like. Held in escrow for the season?

 

[gethugefast1]

Peterson will be Week 1 game-time decisionCoach Leslie Frazier expects Adrian Peterson (knee) to be a game-time decision for Week 1 versus the Jaguars.We've suspected for quite some time that Peterson would be granted a ceremonial "start" for the opener, only to give way to Toby Gerhart for the majority of the game. Peterson owners should keep tabs on his progress next week, but the odds are against Chris Wesseling and Mike Clay ranking him as a top-30 fantasy back for Week 1. Peterson has just begun to take hits in practice this week.Source: ESPN 1500 Twin CitiesAug 30 - 11:13 PM

Peterson likely a game-time decision:Minnesota coach Leslie Frazier said running back Adrian Peterson (knee) is expected to be a game-time decision for Week 1 against the Jaguars. Peterson, who did not play in any of the Vikings' preseason games and has just begun to take on contact in practice, is not a lock for major minutes against the Jaguars even if he is active. The stud rusher is working his way back from a torn ACL and MCL suffered last Christmas Eve. "We've got a lot of things we want to get done with him this week, and I doubt that we would know without getting him through an entire week if we thought he was ready to play in a football game," Frazier said. "We need to take him through some more things this week."(Updated 08/30/2012)

Fantasy AnalysisPeterson may play Week 1 with Toby Gerhart getting the bulk of the carries. We're not sure Peterson will be ready to really contribute until at least Week 2 at this point. Fantasy owners will certainly want to pay close attention over the next week as Peterson has still been drafted among the top 10 or 12 Fantasy running backs despite his injury issues. We continue to hope Peterson is ready for Week 1, and we will keep tabs on his progress heading up to the start of the season. He should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy running back on Draft Day, and he is worth drafting in Round 3 in most leagues, not in Round 2 which is where a lot of people are reaching for him.(Updated 08/30/2012)http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/players/playerpage/517568/adrian-peterson

 

[Bobtender]

OK, first I just want to play devil's advocate... didn't Welker come back from an ACL two years ago that occured week 17 also. It seems like the recovery time for this injury gets shorter and shorter every year. I know that people are going to say it's different for RB's and WR's because RB's cut more. Well, anyone who has watched WW play knows his whole game is on being able to cut hard & quick.

With that said... the reason I will not be touching AP this year(expecting he will be gone before I would consider him) is that the Minn is going to $uck. Sorry Vikes fans, you'll be back someday. I see them finishing 4th in their own division so come fantasy playoff time when the Vikes are already out of the playoff picture... don't you think they will limit AP or possiblly even shut him down... and if he's not there for the fantasy playoffs and he is probably going to start the season off slow... is he really worth drafting?

 

[mbuehner]

OK, first I just want to play devil's advocate... didn't Welker come back from an ACL two years ago that occured week 17 also. It seems like the recovery time for this injury gets shorter and shorter every year. I know that people are going to say it's different for RB's and WR's because RB's cut more. Well, anyone who has watched WW play knows his whole game is on being able to cut hard & quick.

With that said... the reason I will not be touching AP this year(expecting he will be gone before I would consider him) is that the Minn is going to $uck. Sorry Vikes fans, you'll be back someday. I see them finishing 4th in their own division so come fantasy playoff time when the Vikes are already out of the playoff picture... don't you think they will limit AP or possiblly even shut him down... and if he's not there for the fantasy playoffs and he is probably going to start the season off slow... is he really worth drafting?

Vikings always suck. And they have trouble filling their stadium, so if he can play, he'll play.The missing ingredient here is that not all 1000 or 1200 yard rushers are equal. First of all, AP scored a lot of points in a lot of way because he is a very versatile back. So even with diminished snaps he is still more effective than a cowbell back that depends on carries (and generally goalline carries for a lot of guys).

More importantly- its really fantasy points per game that matter. For example- you have to be really desperate to start APete week 1... so you start somebody else (Gerhardt maybe) that is going to give you some points. In essence you should be adding that to your expectation of that RB slot you drafted Peterson for. I think most guys that took him fully expect to sit him for at least 2-3 weeks... its baked into the cake. This is a critical distinction. Shonn Greene scored 162 FPs last season, and Ahmad Bradshaw scored 158... so who was the more valuable back? Ahmad Bradshaw was FAR more valuable, because he only played in 12 games compared to Greene's 16.

You want the guys that will give you maximum impact in the games you need them to, particularly the playoffs. Whether a running back scores 20 TDs or 2000 AP yards is almost immaterial. How many points does he get you when he is in your lineup and how often will he be in that lineup. I understand that those two questions are hotly debated with Peterson anyway... but they are debated a great deal for all the running backs in his tier. So yes, Peterson is certainly a gamble, but he is not a reckless gamble.

 

[[icon]]

OK, first I just want to play devil's advocate... didn't Welker come back from an ACL two years ago that occured week 17 also. It seems like the recovery time for this injury gets shorter and shorter every year. I know that people are going to say it's different for RB's and WR's because RB's cut more. Well, anyone who has watched WW play knows his whole game is on being able to cut hard & quick.

Torn ACL <<<< TOrn ACL, Torn MCL, and Damaged Meniscus. Welker tore his ACLADP Damn near had his leg come off.

 

[[icon]]

So yes, Peterson is certainly a gamble, but he is not a reckless gamble.

Agreed with what you're saying here. I guess we're looking at two issues here:1) How many games will he play in? By play in, i mean actually be the primary ball carrier. A "ceremonial start" week 1, or getting 8-10 carries for a week or three while working him in slowly don't count. As you stated, the upside of situations like this is you generally KNOW he's going to see limited action so he doesn't hurt you while sitting on your bench. If he is the primary back for 12-13 games instead of 16 then at least you know, for the most part, when those 12 game are and can choose to start him then.

2) What percentage is he at w/r/t playing ability? He says he's 100%? Whatever. He's a freak of nature, no doubt, but I am not convinced he's back to ADP's old self. Don't get me wrong, even at 80% he's still better than half the starting backs in the NFL, but I am going to have to be proven wrong on my belief that he's not going to just walk back into a 4.5ypc level of running.

IMO The combination of missing some games (as a feature back), and the very significant chance he's going to have a diminished skillset upon return (at least for the first chunk of the season) makes him wayyyyyy too much of a gamble in the 2nd or even 3rd where folks are taking him. MAYBE late 3rd or early 4th would be the earliest I'd take him but even there...eh.

And all this is completely ignoring the risk (albeit slight) that he's simply pushing back too quick and will re-injure his knee.

I get why some folks want to roll the dice, but for me? No thanks.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Coach Leslie Frazier expects Adrian Peterson (knee) to be a game-time decision for Week 1 versus the Jaguars.We've suspected for quite some time that Peterson would be granted a ceremonial "start" for the opener, only to give way to Toby Gerhart for the majority of the game. Peterson owners should keep tabs on his progress next week, but the odds are against Chris Wesseling and Mike Clay ranking him as a top-30 fantasy back for Week 1. Peterson has just begun to take hits in practice this week. Aug 30 - 11:13 PM

got to wonder how many weeks this will go on

 

[12punch]

all players and situations are different, so what happens to one guy might not happen to another, but I just saw a little news on terrell thomas that I thought I'd pass along as a cautionary tale........

for those that don't know him, he's a nyg corner who tore his acl in preseason last year.

oddly enough, it happened about 10 min after a guy in our league drafted him.

Giants coach Tom Coughlin revealed at halftime of Monday night's preseason game that RCB Terrell Thomas is out for the season with a torn right ACL.

Mon, Aug 22, 2011

Free agent CB Terrell Thomas resumed running Tuesday for the first time since tearing his right ACL on August 22.

Jan 18

Giants CB Terrell Thomas (ACL surgery) says he's 100 percent healthy.

May 14

Giants RCB Terrell Thomas (ACL surgery) announced on his personal blog that he has "no limitations" entering training camp.

Jul 15

Giants RCB Terrell Thomas (ACL surgery) has been sent for tests on his surgically-repaired knee.

Thomas is dealing with swelling following a Sunday spill in practice.

Jul 30

Giants RCB Terrell Thomas (knee) has been officially diagnosed with a "stretched" and "aggravated" ACL, and could be sidelined as little as 3-5 weeks.

Aug 7

Giants RCB Terrell Thomas (knee) is still aiming for a Week 1 return.

"I am getting back to my old self (and) my goal is to still play in the season's opener," Thomas wrote on his website. "... All the signs are showing of my return coming back with a strong and healthy knee are all positive.

Aug 25

Giants placed CB Terrell Thomas (knee) and DT Shaun Rogers (leg) on injured reserve,

Aug 31

maybe they plan to take advantage of that new rule

 

[Zeff]

OK, first I just want to play devil's advocate... didn't Welker come back from an ACL two years ago that occured week 17 also. It seems like the recovery time for this injury gets shorter and shorter every year. I know that people are going to say it's different for RB's and WR's because RB's cut more. Well, anyone who has watched WW play knows his whole game is on being able to cut hard & quick.

Torn ACL <<<< TOrn ACL, Torn MCL, and Damaged Meniscus. Welker tore his ACLADP Damn near had his leg come off.

And, also important to realize if you're going to grasp at the "didn't Welker do it?" straw, is that Welker came back and stunk.

 

[Koya]

I don't think you can judge the value of APete through projections. The fact is if you draft him, you are hoping for the recovery to continue well and sometime between week 3-6 you get really good production on a week to week basis. If you got Gerhart then you hedge your bet in case he goes down again, as you must agree is a risk factor here.

Now, for a high two I think you are taking way too much risk, but if you are in a draft (I've seen a few) where APete slides into the Sproles, Badshaw et al territory then you could get a great second half of the season if he builds and you can manage until that point. I've seen him at the 3-4 turn, and, especially if you grab Gerhart in the 9th that's tempting. Trent Richardson has questions and no clear backup / handcuff. Ryan Matthews has huge ongoing questions and a murky handcuff. Why not A Pete?

Few leagues are roto style so I'll take a chance to have a strong week to week advantage if things work out, and end up with a decent RB2 if APete has a setback. Fairly high reward, significantly mitigated risk. Looks to me like value - if he drops mid third or later especially.

 

[Insein]

Guess I'm in the minority here because I look at some of those 2nd round RBs and I'd rather have Charles or AP. The potential to give you 80-90% of what he used to be is better than Steven Jackson, Frank Gore or Michael Turner in my opinion. AP also has a very cheap handcuff in Gerhart who is very capable of giving you solid numbers till AP gets back to form.

I just look at the 2nd round and if you want a RB, AP or Charles look the most appealing to me.

 

[gethugefast1]

Vikings | 15 players cut Fri Aug 31, 10:36 PM

Vikings | Lex Hilliard needs to shine on special teams

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 21:32:45 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Lex Hilliard likely needs to make a big impact on the return and coverage units on special teams if he is to win a roster spot in training camp and the preseason.

Vikings | Jordan Todman leader for No. 3 RB job

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 10:32:59 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Jordan Todman is considered the favorite for the No. 3 running back entering training camp. Todman's main competition for the job is expected to be RB Lex Hilliard.

The Minnesota Vikings waived WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, DT Chase Baker, OG Chris Degeare, FB Ryan D'Imperio, CB Bobby Felder, RB Lex Hilliard, OG Tyler Holmes, CB Reggie Jones, OT Kevin Murphy, LB Corey Paredes, OG Austin Pasztor, DE Nick Reed, C Quentin Saulsberry, TE Mickey Shuler and RB Jordan Todman

Friday, Aug. 31.

Our view: The VIkings only carry two running backs into the regular season. We think we know how the game-time decision about Adrian Peterson will turn out.

 

[VikingFrog]

Vikings | 15 players cut Fri Aug 31, 10:36 PM

Vikings | Lex Hilliard needs to shine on special teams

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 21:32:45 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Lex Hilliard likely needs to make a big impact on the return and coverage units on special teams if he is to win a roster spot in training camp and the preseason.

Vikings | Jordan Todman leader for No. 3 RB job

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 10:32:59 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Jordan Todman is considered the favorite for the No. 3 running back entering training camp. Todman's main competition for the job is expected to be RB Lex Hilliard.

The Minnesota Vikings waived WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, DT Chase Baker, OG Chris Degeare, FB Ryan D'Imperio, CB Bobby Felder, RB Lex Hilliard, OG Tyler Holmes, CB Reggie Jones, OT Kevin Murphy, LB Corey Paredes, OG Austin Pasztor, DE Nick Reed, C Quentin Saulsberry, TE Mickey Shuler and RB Jordan Todman

Friday, Aug. 31.

Our view: The VIkings only carry two running backs into the regular season. We think we know how the game-time decision about Adrian Peterson will turn out.

Carrying 2 running backs on any team seems silly.

 

[Chazzhawk]

I don't think you can judge the value of APete through projections. The fact is if you draft him, you are hoping for the recovery to continue well and sometime between week 3-6 you get really good production on a week to week basis. If you got Gerhart then you hedge your bet in case he goes down again, as you must agree is a risk factor here. Now, for a high two I think you are taking way too much risk, but if you are in a draft (I've seen a few) where APete slides into the Sproles, Badshaw et al territory then you could get a great second half of the season if he builds and you can manage until that point. I've seen him at the 3-4 turn, and, especially if you grab Gerhart in the 9th that's tempting. Trent Richardson has questions and no clear backup / handcuff. Ryan Matthews has huge ongoing questions and a murky handcuff. Why not A Pete?Few leagues are roto style so I'll take a chance to have a strong week to week advantage if things work out, and end up with a decent RB2 if APete has a setback. Fairly high reward, significantly mitigated risk. Looks to me like value - if he drops mid third or later especially.

Welker didn't stink but he wasn't Wes Welker

 

[Zeff]

I don't think you can judge the value of APete through projections. The fact is if you draft him, you are hoping for the recovery to continue well and sometime between week 3-6 you get really good production on a week to week basis. If you got Gerhart then you hedge your bet in case he goes down again, as you must agree is a risk factor here. Now, for a high two I think you are taking way too much risk, but if you are in a draft (I've seen a few) where APete slides into the Sproles, Badshaw et al territory then you could get a great second half of the season if he builds and you can manage until that point. I've seen him at the 3-4 turn, and, especially if you grab Gerhart in the 9th that's tempting. Trent Richardson has questions and no clear backup / handcuff. Ryan Matthews has huge ongoing questions and a murky handcuff. Why not A Pete?Few leagues are roto style so I'll take a chance to have a strong week to week advantage if things work out, and end up with a decent RB2 if APete has a setback. Fairly high reward, significantly mitigated risk. Looks to me like value - if he drops mid third or later especially.

Welker didn't stink but he wasn't Wes Welker

He did if you spent a second round selection on him. Which is what you'd be spending to get Peterson.

 

[shnikies]

The time to draft AP will be in 2013 after he has a down year and you can get him in the 4th round, a year removed from the surgery.

 

[gethugefast1]

Vikings | 15 players cut Fri Aug 31, 10:36 PM

Vikings | Lex Hilliard needs to shine on special teams

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 21:32:45 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Lex Hilliard likely needs to make a big impact on the return and coverage units on special teams if he is to win a roster spot in training camp and the preseason.

Vikings | Jordan Todman leader for No. 3 RB job

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 10:32:59 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Jordan Todman is considered the favorite for the No. 3 running back entering training camp. Todman's main competition for the job is expected to be RB Lex Hilliard.

The Minnesota Vikings waived WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, DT Chase Baker, OG Chris Degeare, FB Ryan D'Imperio, CB Bobby Felder, RB Lex Hilliard, OG Tyler Holmes, CB Reggie Jones, OT Kevin Murphy, LB Corey Paredes, OG Austin Pasztor, DE Nick Reed, C Quentin Saulsberry, TE Mickey Shuler and RB Jordan Todman

Friday, Aug. 31.

Our view: The VIkings only carry two running backs into the regular season. We think we know how the game-time decision about Adrian Peterson will turn out.

Carrying 2 running backs on any team seems silly.

Viking:Still have Harvin they can use as RB.

Make a trade or pick-up a FA.

Or as FBGs commented is ADP heathier than 'game time decision'?

 

[DeaLerZ]

Vikings | 15 players cut Fri Aug 31, 10:36 PM

Vikings | Lex Hilliard needs to shine on special teams

Wed, 18 Jul 2012 21:32:45 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Lex Hilliard likely needs to make a big impact on the return and coverage units on special teams if he is to win a roster spot in training camp and the preseason.

Vikings | Jordan Todman leader for No. 3 RB job

Mon, 25 Jun 2012 10:32:59 -0700

Minnesota Vikings RB Jordan Todman is considered the favorite for the No. 3 running back entering training camp. Todman's main competition for the job is expected to be RB Lex Hilliard.

The Minnesota Vikings waived WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, DT Chase Baker, OG Chris Degeare, FB Ryan D'Imperio, CB Bobby Felder, RB Lex Hilliard, OG Tyler Holmes, CB Reggie Jones, OT Kevin Murphy, LB Corey Paredes, OG Austin Pasztor, DE Nick Reed, C Quentin Saulsberry, TE Mickey Shuler and RB Jordan Todman

Friday, Aug. 31.

Our view: The VIkings only carry two running backs into the regular season. We think we know how the game-time decision about Adrian Peterson will turn out.

Carrying 2 running backs on any team seems silly.

Viking:Still have Harvin they can use as RB.

Make a trade or pick-up a FA.

Or as FBGs commented is ADP heathier than 'game time decision'?

Interesting...

I think they will go something like 10-15 touches for ADP, 10 touches for Gerrhart, and 5-10 extra touches for Harvin... until they are 100% confident in ADP

this is what most of us were expecting from this situation early on... Percy Harvin is going to have a great year regardless... but the Vikings will slowly adjust ADP back to live action in order to prevent any setbacks from overworking him

 

[cpd90]

I snagged him in the 3.04 of a 10-team PPR league. Though I'm not convinced that he'll have an outstanding year, I think that's where you need to grab ADP. The upside alone is worth it, but only if you've got another stud RB on your roster. Anyone grabbing him in the 1st or 2nd round isn't considering the circumstances.

 

[Phenix]

I snagged him in the 3.04 of a 10-team PPR league. Though I'm not convinced that he'll have an outstanding year, I think that's where you need to grab ADP. The upside alone is worth it, but only if you've got another stud RB on your roster. Anyone grabbing him in the 1st or 2nd round isn't considering the circumstances.

Got him at 4.02 in a 10 teamer, I couldn't be happier. If he falls past the 3rd, it is a no brainer. Upside to get 10 TDs is still there.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

FWIW

Sigmund Bloom ‏@SigmundBloom

The #Vikings only carry two running backs into the season opener... Adrian Peterson game-time decision, my ###.

 

[Zeff]

FWIWSigmund Bloom ‏@SigmundBloomThe #Vikings only carry two running backs into the season opener... Adrian Peterson game-time decision, my ###.

What this says, more than anything, is that Percy Harvin continues to be a felony at his current ADP. He may double the number of touches of any other WR this year.

 

[Kenny Powers]

The time to draft AP will be in 2013 after he has a down year and you can get him in the 4th round, a year removed from the surgery.

When he is going mid-2nd less than a year removed from a torn ACL, he isnt going any lower a full season after it, regardless of what kind of numbers he puts together in 2012

 

[Zeff]

The time to draft AP will be in 2013 after he has a down year and you can get him in the 4th round, a year removed from the surgery.

When he is going mid-2nd less than a year removed from a torn ACL, he isnt going any lower a full season after it, regardless of what kind of numbers he puts together in 2012

Of course he is. All you need to do is look at the expert rankings any year, including this one, to know that even the most "knowledgeable" people in the industry do nothing more than look at what happened last year.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Vikings always suck. And they have trouble filling their stadium, so if he can play, he'll play.

The missing ingredient here is that not all 1000 or 1200 yard rushers are equal. First of all, AP scored a lot of points in a lot of way because he is a very versatile back. So even with diminished snaps he is still more effective than a cowbell back that depends on carries (and generally goalline carries for a lot of guys).

I laughed.

 

[pollardsvision]

The time to draft AP will be in 2013 after he has a down year and you can get him in the 4th round, a year removed from the surgery.

When he is going mid-2nd less than a year removed from a torn ACL, he isnt going any lower a full season after it, regardless of what kind of numbers he puts together in 2012

Of course he is. All you need to do is look at the expert rankings any year, including this one, to know that even the most "knowledgeable" people in the industry do nothing more than look at what happened last year.

Yeah, I think he'll be cheaper next year.This year, people think they are paying for stud AP who might take a couple of weeks to get up to speed.Next year, people will think they are paying for a guy who may never be the same. Actually, seeing him on the field not dominating will do more harm to his value than the injury did.

 

[Kenny Powers]

The time to draft AP will be in 2013 after he has a down year and you can get him in the 4th round, a year removed from the surgery.

When he is going mid-2nd less than a year removed from a torn ACL, he isnt going any lower a full season after it, regardless of what kind of numbers he puts together in 2012

Of course he is. All you need to do is look at the expert rankings any year, including this one, to know that even the most "knowledgeable" people in the industry do nothing more than look at what happened last year.

Yeah, I think he'll be cheaper next year.This year, people think they are paying for stud AP who might take a couple of weeks to get up to speed.Next year, people will think they are paying for a guy who may never be the same. Actually, seeing him on the field not dominating will do more harm to his value than the injury did.

He could have 300 yards this year, and there is still no way Adrian Peterson will have an ADP in the 4th round next year. Almost any other RB in the league? Maybe. Adrian Peterson? No.

 

[Ghost Rider]

It seems like a lot of people have taken the "He'll be fine because he's Adrian Peterson, and Adrian Peterson is a beast" logic; I was shocked at how much people have been spending on him at auctions. Call me old-fashioned, but I am scared of overpaying for players coming off an injury like that, regardless of what a beast they were pre-injury.

 

[MacAvery]

FWIWSigmund Bloom ‏@SigmundBloomThe #Vikings only carry two running backs into the season opener... Adrian Peterson game-time decision, my ###.

What this says, more than anything, is that Percy Harvin continues to be a felony at his current ADP. He may double the number of touches of any other WR this year.

They are also carrying FB/RB hybrid Matt Asiata who looked good in the preseason (23-134, 5.8y/c).

 

[Insein]

Yea, worth 2nd round ADP so far.

 

[Phenix]

It seems like a lot of people have taken the "He'll be fine because he's Adrian Peterson, and Adrian Peterson is a beast" logic; I was shocked at how much people have been spending on him at auctions. Call me old-fashioned, but I am scared of overpaying for players coming off an injury like that, regardless of what a beast they were pre-injury.

Bumped to ask, how do you feel now?

 

[Phenix]

Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?

No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.

Really? nothing but downside?

 

[Phenix]

He will be on none of my teams this year at his current adp. I don't care if he blows up and is the #1 fantasy player in all the land and I miss the boat. I don't draft rbs 8months removed from an acl tear in the 2nd rd. too risky and too low of a ceiling IMO to justify it. I'd take a chance on him in the 5th rd and beyond which is why he won't be on any of my teams bc some other kook is always drafting him in the 2nd

How bout now, will you draft them early now?

 

[Phenix]

Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?

No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.

Post of the week.

Indeed!

 

[Phenix]

I cannot believe people are drafting him in the 2 nd round in. Fbgpc leagues.....the regular season is so short in those leagues......why would you jeopardize your team?

Wow, but is he not the #2 or #3 runners in most leagues?

 

[Phenix]

I did use my head, and that;s why I am in here letting all the so called sharks know they cannot be trusted on future opinions on the poor insight from most of you.

 

[Phenix]

90% Chance he finishes with fewer than 1000 yards rushing. 70% Chance he finishes with fewer than 900 yards rushing50% Chance he finishes with fewer than 800 yards rushing. Goal line carries aren't his. Slim chance they risk that with Gerhart on board.... so I see him with single Digit TD's combined. Overall he's looking at impressive numbers for someone 8 months out from a totally blown out knee.... but a pretty big bust for an early/mid 2nd round pick (I've seen him go in the 1st). You're essentially paying for around 1500 yards and 10 Touchdowns. I think we're looking at RB15ish numbers with a bit more downside than upside. My .02.

LMFAO. I wouldnt take a dime from you at this rate.

 

[Stryker]

Was gonna take him in 3rd round but pre draft, I was talked out of it. Shouldn't have listened. Had a hunch. Oh well.

 

[Phenix]

Is he worth taking a gamble on in the 2nd round? Do you think he will hold up?

No. I see nothing but downside here. There's virtually no hope at all he'll produce top 5 type numbers for you, since even if his rehab went greatest-rehab-in-human-history well, the Vikes will still coddle him for a year. With capable guys in Gerhart and Harvin to share the running load, it would be insane for them to give Peterson huge numbers of touches. Without those, there are plenty of guys available in the same area of the draft that DO give you the chance to radically outscore their draft position.People are reaching for ADP early because they're thinking, "well, if he can just surprise us and be the ADP of old, then..."Stop thinking like that. You can't possibly get old ADP, because this guy isn't going to sniff old ADP's touches. Add to that the very real chance he's not 100% only 8 months out from destroying his knee, and I don't see the value.

Post of the week.

Agree with that. Summed up well. When you think about it from your rational side, its hard to go after Peterson. There is no reason for the real life vikes to push him and if ou ahve anything like a knee gets a little swollen on a Monday morning, then that's your life for the rest of the year....touch and go every game.

Other than Peterson wants to play and is a freak of nature. No one will keep the franchise player from playing, not even ownership.ETA: Oh, and rehab is a lot different then it used to be and a doctor gave him clearence to play. So someone with more knowledge of the human body then all of you have gave him the OK. Just like Charles and Forte, he will be ready when his number is called.

man, your tone sounds a bit like a jilted lover (or an ADP owner with a thin bench). Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing his ability or toughness (and it doesn't look like anyone else questioned his ability). I might not even put up a fight if you tell me Wednesday is the 15th anniversary of when SKYNET built him. He's phenomenol.But when you look at it realistically, you have a person who came off a BAD injury to a body part that is paramount to a RB. Yes, he got cleared to practice, play, whatever, but, you know what, I've been to a doctor before and told I have eczema only to find out it was poison ivy. Things happen. But the point was if you take him this high, you are pretty much depending on him being very close to what he has always been, yet you take on a LARGE risk because after tearing basically every ligament in your knee, and playing the way he does, its not out of the realm of thinking that he could have some lingering side effects, especially since he hasn't taken contact at all. All it would take is a sold helmet to a knee and, although it may not hurt his knee significantly, I can guarantee you that if it had some swelling or stiffness, its going to be hard for you to get that production you thought you would get out of him because he WILL miss time. Whether its a hald game or a game or two, they would pull him and be cauutious because he's too great (not good, great) of a player for a team to prematurely end his career for nothing. And, the Vikings have a significant investment in him. I'm sure they want him to play as much as possible through at least the guaranteed portion of that contract.

Time to laugh at you too, and you guys say you have fantasy football knowledge?Please, to be so wrong on this when everything pointed to him being OK, is beyond panic and pathetic. Most of the posters in here should have their fantasy football card taken away.

 

[Phenix]

OK, first I just want to play devil's advocate... didn't Welker come back from an ACL two years ago that occured week 17 also. It seems like the recovery time for this injury gets shorter and shorter every year. I know that people are going to say it's different for RB's and WR's because RB's cut more. Well, anyone who has watched WW play knows his whole game is on being able to cut hard & quick.

With that said... the reason I will not be touching AP this year(expecting he will be gone before I would consider him) is that the Minn is going to $uck. Sorry Vikes fans, you'll be back someday. I see them finishing 4th in their own division so come fantasy playoff time when the Vikes are already out of the playoff picture... don't you think they will limit AP or possiblly even shut him down... and if he's not there for the fantasy playoffs and he is probably going to start the season off slow... is he really worth drafting?

Can people be any more wrong?

 

[Phenix]

The time to draft AP will be in 2013 after he has a down year and you can get him in the 4th round, a year removed from the surgery.

Thanks for the advice.

 

[Phenix]

Vikings always suck. And they have trouble filling their stadium, so if he can play, he'll play.

The missing ingredient here is that not all 1000 or 1200 yard rushers are equal. First of all, AP scored a lot of points in a lot of way because he is a very versatile back. So even with diminished snaps he is still more effective than a cowbell back that depends on carries (and generally goalline carries for a lot of guys).

I laughed.

Me too, but at you for mocking the truth.

 

[urbanhack]

update?

 

[MCguidance]

Phenix, you ok brah? Take a breath.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

FWIW, the ADP thread that needs bumping is the Sabretooth one from last season when he kept insisting ADP was done and then gave himself credit for being right after the ACL tear.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

So yes, Peterson is certainly a gamble, but he is not a reckless gamble.

Agreed with what you're saying here. I guess we're looking at two issues here:1) How many games will he play in? By play in, i mean actually be the primary ball carrier. A "ceremonial start" week 1, or getting 8-10 carries for a week or three while working him in slowly don't count. As you stated, the upside of situations like this is you generally KNOW he's going to see limited action so he doesn't hurt you while sitting on your bench. If he is the primary back for 12-13 games instead of 16 then at least you know, for the most part, when those 12 game are and can choose to start him then.

2) What percentage is he at w/r/t playing ability? He says he's 100%? Whatever. He's a freak of nature, no doubt, but I am not convinced he's back to ADP's old self. Don't get me wrong, even at 80% he's still better than half the starting backs in the NFL, but I am going to have to be proven wrong on my belief that he's not going to just walk back into a 4.5ypc level of running.

IMO The combination of missing some games (as a feature back), and the very significant chance he's going to have a diminished skillset upon return (at least for the first chunk of the season) makes him wayyyyyy too much of a gamble in the 2nd or even 3rd where folks are taking him. MAYBE late 3rd or early 4th would be the earliest I'd take him but even there...eh.

And all this is completely ignoring the risk (albeit slight) that he's simply pushing back too quick and will re-injure his knee.

I get why some folks want to roll the dice, but for me? No thanks.

So how are those 3rd and 4th round RBs you rolled the dice with doing compared to ADP?

 

[Annyong]

on pace for 1,804 rushing yard this year.

 

[[icon]]

So yes, Peterson is certainly a gamble, but he is not a reckless gamble.

Agreed with what you're saying here. I guess we're looking at two issues here:1) How many games will he play in? By play in, i mean actually be the primary ball carrier. A "ceremonial start" week 1, or getting 8-10 carries for a week or three while working him in slowly don't count. As you stated, the upside of situations like this is you generally KNOW he's going to see limited action so he doesn't hurt you while sitting on your bench. If he is the primary back for 12-13 games instead of 16 then at least you know, for the most part, when those 12 game are and can choose to start him then.

2) What percentage is he at w/r/t playing ability? He says he's 100%? Whatever. He's a freak of nature, no doubt, but I am not convinced he's back to ADP's old self. Don't get me wrong, even at 80% he's still better than half the starting backs in the NFL, but I am going to have to be proven wrong on my belief that he's not going to just walk back into a 4.5ypc level of running.

IMO The combination of missing some games (as a feature back), and the very significant chance he's going to have a diminished skillset upon return (at least for the first chunk of the season) makes him wayyyyyy too much of a gamble in the 2nd or even 3rd where folks are taking him. MAYBE late 3rd or early 4th would be the earliest I'd take him but even there...eh.

And all this is completely ignoring the risk (albeit slight) that he's simply pushing back too quick and will re-injure his knee.

I get why some folks want to roll the dice, but for me? No thanks.

So how are those 3rd and 4th round RBs you rolled the dice with doing compared to ADP?

1) I was 100% wrong on ADP's ability to make it back from the injury he sustained. YOu must admit that is unprecedented but I will admit that I underestimated the guy. Hats off to him and anyone who had the stones to make that leap. You're reaping the rewards no doubt. I'm not sure I'd bet on any other back in the league being able to make that recovery but ADP pulled it off. Dude is sick. If you're asking about my specific backs I guess I can indulge

Office League (10TPR:$125): Forte (1st)SJAX (3rd), Matthews (5th), Martin (6th) (ADP went in 3rd after SJAX) - Currently 2nd place

"Cordova" (dual 10TPR:$250): Foster (1st): SJAX (4th), Martin (7th) - Currently 2nd Place

In another league ADP went 5th overall.

I'm doing well... had I believed in ADP a bit more it might have been different but ya win some you lose some. I just wasn't ready to gamble a top round pick on a guy coming off that injury. Sometimes you miss some calls

 

[Jules Winnfield]

OK, first I just want to play devil's advocate... didn't Welker come back from an ACL two years ago that occured week 17 also. It seems like the recovery time for this injury gets shorter and shorter every year. I know that people are going to say it's different for RB's and WR's because RB's cut more. Well, anyone who has watched WW play knows his whole game is on being able to cut hard & quick.With that said... the reason I will not be touching AP this year(expecting he will be gone before I would consider him) is that the Minn is going to $uck. Sorry Vikes fans, you'll be back someday. I see them finishing 4th in their own division so come fantasy playoff time when the Vikes are already out of the playoff picture... don't you think they will limit AP or possiblly even shut him down... and if he's not there for the fantasy playoffs and he is probably going to start the season off slow... is he really worth drafting?

I think your avatar could give better advice than you can