What was it about Boldin as a rookie? (1 Viewer)

[Jed]

Why did Boldin have such an incredible rookie year? Obviously conventional wisdom says don't play a rookie WR in fantasy football, but that was wrong in Boldins case. Reason I ask is in evaluating Jones and Green. All signs point to a pretty nice debut for both (especially Jones), but who knows?

Just wondering if Boldin showed signs, I honestly don't remember. Did he have a great camp/preseason?

 

[loose circuits]

not really, he wasn't even that high of a pick and had Bryant Johnson drafted ahead of him on his own team. Perfect storm of QB who locked in on 1 WR, bad defense that got them behind early so they had to play catch up, and plenty of targets

 

[LHUCKS]

Quan is my favorite Cardinal of alltime.

Several factors contributed to his awesome rookie season

1) Despite his shortcomings, Jeff Blake could fling the rock, particularly the deep ball

2) Quan is faster in pads than he is at a combine

3) Quans best atribute, his great YAC, was overlooked by scouts

4) Quan has the most heart of any WR I've ever seen play the game, scouts can't measure that...same thing with guys like Bruschi

5) Cards were behind quite a bit back then, they were terrible

6) Soft defensive division

 

[azgroover]

He played Detroit in Week 1 for a huge confidence boost.

 

[tenaka]

The pattern I've seen follows 'bigger' receivers doing well at least initially. Boldin and Colston broke out their rookie year and are very muscular receivers. That plays into the 'faster in pads' mentioned above. Clayton in Tampa was in the same mold, and did well at first (then busted). I think guys that are bulkier can more handle the physicality of NFL secondaries and fight open and fight for the ball whereas your skinny guys have to learn how to avoid and find seams which takes longer. This makes me like Julio a little better as far as rookie seasons (his QB doesn't hurt either).

 

[Joe Summer]

not really, he wasn't even that high of a pick and had Bryant Johnson drafted ahead of him on his own team.

Not only was Bryant Johnson usually drafted ahead of Boldin, but Bryan Gilmore was the projected #2 WR on that team. Boldin did almost NOTHING in the preseason (1 catch, 0 catches, 3 catches, and 0 catches). He caught almost everyone off guard.Check out this list of Average Draft Position for 2003. Boldin was only drafted in 95 out of 1100+ drafts.

 

[Federal]

not really, he wasn't even that high of a pick and had Bryant Johnson drafted ahead of him on his own team.

Not only was Bryant Johnson usually drafted ahead of Boldin, but Bryan Gilmore was the projected #2 WR on that team. Boldin did almost NOTHING in the preseason (1 catch, 0 catches, 3 catches, and 0 catches). He caught almost everyone off guard.Check out this list of Average Draft Position for 2003. Boldin was only drafted in 95 out of 1100+ drafts.

From what I remember, McGinnis & crew wanted to keep a lid on Boldin in the preseason. You had heard his name quite bit in the preseason, but never really got to see him. Opening day was Emmitt Smiths first game for the Cards, but I remember being much more excited to see Boldin (picked him in every FF league). I actually think he started opening day, tossed up 200 yard 2 td's, and had me bragging about my late round steal for weeks to come.

There was a little preseason buzz, but not much. It may have been by design.

 

[SSOG]

not really, he wasn't even that high of a pick and had Bryant Johnson drafted ahead of him on his own team. Perfect storm of QB who locked in on 1 WR, bad defense that got them behind early so they had to play catch up, and plenty of targets

He was a 2nd round draft pick. That's a pretty high draft pick in my book. Also, Anquan Boldin really lit things up in camp that year, too (prompting Switz to famously ask if Boldin was the next Randy Moss prior to the season... only to get laughed at).

2) Quan is faster in pads than he is at a combine

3) Quans best atribute, his great YAC, was overlooked by scouts

4) Quan has the most heart of any WR I've ever seen play the game, scouts can't measure that...same thing with guys like Bruschi

Ummm... what? Again, Anquan was a 2nd round draft pick. Scouts didn't overlook anything. Scouts didn't have any trouble measuring anything. Scouts weren't fooled by his "combine speed" into overlooking his "game speed". Scouts had him rated as a second rounder despite the fact that he only had two seasons at WR under his belt (he was a high school QB, and was originally recruited at Florida State to play QB, too). That's a pretty strong vote of confidence in his abilities.This isn't Marques Colston lasting to the 7th round, here, people. Lots of very, very smart people expected Anquan Boldin to be a very good pro receiver. He was drafted in the same neighborhood as Sidney Rice and Randall Cobb. If he was overlooked in fantasy drafts, that's simply a reflection of the short-sightedness of fantasy owners (who ignored him because another player was drafted at the same position a round earlier), not a reflection on how actual football scouts/teams/GMs viewed him.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

He played Detroit in Week 1 for a huge confidence boost.

I was there for that game. Who the #### is that guy? Hey D coordinator you might wan to cover Boldin, He's got 3 TD's ya know!

 

[David Yudkin]

He had a 165 targets, which without looking it up, seems like an insanely high amount for a rookie receiver. (In the past 9 years, I believe the next highest rookie total was Eddie Royal at 129 targets.) ARI had no defense, couldn't run the ball, and was forced to air it out. Not sure why Boldin became the beneficiary and other WR hardly saw the ball.

 

[Truman]

Overlooked by everyone, including scouts, his own coaches, and most importantly opposition coached who gameplanned against the Cards. He exploded for absolutely stupid #s in his first game and never looked back. Had a lot of garbage time scores IIRC. Not a lot of competition for touches.

Most important factors go back to his being overlooked as a threat, playing on a bad team and a lack of tape from coaches. See - Colston, Marques

ETA - 10-217-2 were the numbers in the aforementioned first game. That'll improve your fantasy ranking.

 

[Bri]

He played Detroit in Week 1 for a huge confidence boost.

lol..the recipe for every successful rookie season

 

[smackdaddies]

He played Detroit in Week 1 for a huge confidence boost.

lol..the recipe for every successful rookie season

not this year

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Why did Boldin have such an incredible rookie year? Obviously conventional wisdom says don't play a rookie WR in fantasy football, but that was wrong in Boldins case. Reason I ask is in evaluating Jones and Green. All signs point to a pretty nice debut for both (especially Jones), but who knows?

Just wondering if Boldin showed signs, I honestly don't remember. Did he have a great camp/preseason?

That has really changed over the last 5-10 years. It's still a risk, but a good number have emerged as startable for fantasy football. Of course its not always easy to pick which ones.Things that help a rookie WR emerge:

1. Opportunity: Duh.

2. Draft Status: Generally its a first or second round rookie that is the best canidate to succeed his first year. Draft pedigree is generally indicative of talent and it also helps create the opportunity.

3. Size: Bigger WRs (over 6' and over 200 lbs) have had the better success rate, but the last couple of seasons smaller guys like D. Jackson, Eddie Royal and J. Maclin have bucked that trend.

4. QB: Surprisingly it hasn't taken a great NFL QB to help the rookies that have produced, emerge. In fact Boldin had Jeff Blake and Josh McCown playing QB when he was a rookie. Other poor QBs that have "helped" rookie WRs make a fantasy impact include: Brian Griese, Tim Couch, Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle, Joey Harrington, Jay Fiedler, Kordell Stewart, David Carr, Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer.

ETA: We are not talking Anquan Boldin levels for the rookie WRs I'm referring to. His rookie season was second only to Randy Moss' over the last 20 years. I'm merely referring to guys that can be thrown into your line-up without killing you, not carrying your team except for some rare occurrences like Boldin, Moss, Mike Williams, Michael Clayton. M. Colston, Kevin Johnson and a few others.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It's a good thing Doug Drinen doesn't browse these forums that often, otherwise he'd be annoyed with me for posting a seven-year-old link. That said...

http://footballguys.com/04drinen_garbage.htm

"A case could be made that Arizona's generous endowment of garbage time added 48 fantasy points to Boldin's 2003 total."

If Boldin had 139 fantasy points instead of 197, it still would have been a very good rookie year. But not the sort of ZOMG year that has people talking about it seven years later. It appears that garbage time helped him quite a bit.

Of course, lots of rookie WRs play in garbage time. The Panthers and Cardinals had some rookie receivers play in a ton of garbage time, and they didn't do much. Jeff Blake, while actually a decent quarterback for the majority of his career, was washed up by 2003, his last year starting. He was a shell of the player he was in the late '90s by then. But Marcel Shipp and Emmitt Smith weren't very good, and Arizona was very, very thing elsewhere at receiver. I think that was probably the biggest factor in making him different than any garbage time receivers. The pie wasn't all that exciting in the desert, but Boldin ate the whole damn thing.

 

[Jed]

It's a good thing Doug Drinen doesn't browse these forums that often, otherwise he'd be annoyed with me for posting a seven-year-old link. That said...http://footballguys.com/04drinen_garbage.htm"A case could be made that Arizona's generous endowment of garbage time added 48 fantasy points to Boldin's 2003 total."If Boldin had 139 fantasy points instead of 197, it still would have been a very good rookie year. But not the sort of ZOMG year that has people talking about it seven years later. It appears that garbage time helped him quite a bit.Of course, lots of rookie WRs play in garbage time. The Panthers and Cardinals had some rookie receivers play in a ton of garbage time, and they didn't do much. Jeff Blake, while actually a decent quarterback for the majority of his career, was washed up by 2003, his last year starting. He was a shell of the player he was in the late '90s by then. But Marcel Shipp and Emmitt Smith weren't very good, and Arizona was very, very thing elsewhere at receiver. I think that was probably the biggest factor in making him different than any garbage time receivers. The pie wasn't all that exciting in the desert, but Boldin ate the whole damn thing.

I agree... And this makes the case more for AJ over Julio this year. But its unlikely either will come close to 75% of Boldins debut.

 

[Ilov80s]

He played Detroit in Week 1 for a huge confidence boost.

lol..the recipe for every successful rookie season

Got Matt Ryan off to a good start as well.

 

[Ilov80s]

It's a good thing Doug Drinen doesn't browse these forums that often, otherwise he'd be annoyed with me for posting a seven-year-old link. That said...

http://footballguys....nen_garbage.htm

"A case could be made that Arizona's generous endowment of garbage time added 48 fantasy points to Boldin's 2003 total."

If Boldin had 139 fantasy points instead of 197, it still would have been a very good rookie year. But not the sort of ZOMG year that has people talking about it seven years later. It appears that garbage time helped him quite a bit.

Of course, lots of rookie WRs play in garbage time. The Panthers and Cardinals had some rookie receivers play in a ton of garbage time, and they didn't do much. Jeff Blake, while actually a decent quarterback for the majority of his career, was washed up by 2003, his last year starting. He was a shell of the player he was in the late '90s by then. But Marcel Shipp and Emmitt Smith weren't very good, and Arizona was very, very thing elsewhere at receiver. I think that was probably the biggest factor in making him different than any garbage time receivers. The pie wasn't all that exciting in the desert, but Boldin ate the whole damn thing.

I agree... And this makes the case more for AJ over Julio this year. But its unlikely either will come close to 75% of Boldins debut.

The Bengals have Gresham,Shipley and Simpson. I think the better comparison- if you are looking for a rookie WR with little competition for targets- is Greg Little.

 

[LHUCKS]

Ummm... what? Again, Anquan was a 2nd round draft pick. Scouts didn't overlook anything. Scouts didn't have any trouble measuring anything. Scouts weren't fooled by his "combine speed" into overlooking his "game speed". Scouts had him rated as a second rounder despite the fact that he only had two seasons at WR under his belt (he was a high school QB, and was originally recruited at Florida State to play QB, too). That's a pretty strong vote of confidence in his abilities.

This isn't Marques Colston lasting to the 7th round, here, people. Lots of very, very smart people expected Anquan Boldin to be a very good pro receiver. He was drafted in the same neighborhood as Sidney Rice and Randall Cobb. If he was overlooked in fantasy drafts, that's simply a reflection of the short-sightedness of fantasy owners (who ignored him because another player was drafted at the same position a round earlier), not a reflection on how actual football scouts/teams/GMs viewed him.

X

 

[Matt Waldman]

Anquan Boldin was considered a high-end first-day pick before workouts. Then he ran a very slow 40 time and scouts backed off their grades considerably.

In essence you had a terrific talent who had a bad day with the 40 and his draft stock paid for it. Brandon Lloyd had a similar issue with the 40. He had the flu when he worked out and his 40 time was 4.7. He might have been the best deep threat in football last year.

 

[thayman]

not really, he wasn't even that high of a pick and had Bryant Johnson drafted ahead of him on his own team. Perfect storm of QB who locked in on 1 WR, bad defense that got them behind early so they had to play catch up, and plenty of targets

He was a 2nd round draft pick. That's a pretty high draft pick in my book. Also, Anquan Boldin really lit things up in camp that year, too (prompting Switz to famously ask if Boldin was the next Randy Moss prior to the season... only to get laughed at).

2) Quan is faster in pads than he is at a combine

3) Quans best atribute, his great YAC, was overlooked by scouts

4) Quan has the most heart of any WR I've ever seen play the game, scouts can't measure that...same thing with guys like Bruschi

Ummm... what? Again, Anquan was a 2nd round draft pick. Scouts didn't overlook anything. Scouts didn't have any trouble measuring anything. Scouts weren't fooled by his "combine speed" into overlooking his "game speed". Scouts had him rated as a second rounder despite the fact that he only had two seasons at WR under his belt (he was a high school QB, and was originally recruited at Florida State to play QB, too). That's a pretty strong vote of confidence in his abilities.This isn't Marques Colston lasting to the 7th round, here, people. Lots of very, very smart people expected Anquan Boldin to be a very good pro receiver. He was drafted in the same neighborhood as Sidney Rice and Randall Cobb. If he was overlooked in fantasy drafts, that's simply a reflection of the short-sightedness of fantasy owners (who ignored him because another player was drafted at the same position a round earlier), not a reflection on how actual football scouts/teams/GMs viewed him.

I agree that 2nd round isn't late pick he was however the 6th WR taken in the draft and the 2nd WR drafted on his own team. It's easy to see why most people over looked him.ETA: I always like looking at that draft, it's fun to be reminded that The Redskins took Taylor Jacobs over Boldin. :X

 

[SSOG]

Ummm... what? Again, Anquan was a 2nd round draft pick. Scouts didn't overlook anything. Scouts didn't have any trouble measuring anything. Scouts weren't fooled by his "combine speed" into overlooking his "game speed". Scouts had him rated as a second rounder despite the fact that he only had two seasons at WR under his belt (he was a high school QB, and was originally recruited at Florida State to play QB, too). That's a pretty strong vote of confidence in his abilities.

This isn't Marques Colston lasting to the 7th round, here, people. Lots of very, very smart people expected Anquan Boldin to be a very good pro receiver. He was drafted in the same neighborhood as Sidney Rice and Randall Cobb. If he was overlooked in fantasy drafts, that's simply a reflection of the short-sightedness of fantasy owners (who ignored him because another player was drafted at the same position a round earlier), not a reflection on how actual football scouts/teams/GMs viewed him.

X

Wrong, OAnquan Boldin was drafted 54th overall despite having been converted from QB to WR halfway through his college career and running a 4.7 forty. Saying he was overlooked by scouts who had trouble measuring his best assets is either idiotic or willfully ignorant of reality. If they couldn't accurately measure his strengths, and his weaknesses were so glaringly obvious, then why did they draft him 54th overall? Were they just drawing names out of a hat at random?

I agree that 2nd round isn't late pick he was however the 6th WR taken in the draft and the 2nd WR drafted on his own team. It's easy to see why most people over looked him.

ETA: I always like looking at that draft, it's fun to be reminded that The Redskins took Taylor Jacobs over Boldin. :X

It's easy to see why FANTASY OWNERS overlooked him. The fact that 5 other WRs were taken ahead of him definitely caused a lot of fantasy owners to forget about him (just like the glut of 1st round RBs in 2008 caused a lot of fantasy owners to forget about Jamaal Charles). To fantasy owners, you're more likely to get drafted highly if you were 54th overall (but the 2nd receiver in your class) than if you were 54th overall (but the 6th receiver in your class). For NFL purposes, though, the expectations for a guy taken 54th overall are roughly the same regardless of how many guys were taken before him at the same position. In fact, they might be slightly higher if a lot of guys at the same position were already taken, because it makes it less likely that you were taken by a team reaching for need.