What would you give up to move into the top 3 this year? (1 Viewer)

[Evilgrin 72]

I know it's easy to use the pick value calculator, but I think a top 3 pick carries more weight this year than usual, no?

I pick #8 and got a nibble from the owner at #3 (12-teamer). I'm not looking for what I should offer here, I'll obviously try to lowball him without insulting his acumen, but I wonder what ultimately would present a good deal. For instance, would you swap picks in rounds 1, 2, and 4?

 

[u999spf]

If I was 8 looking to move up into top 3 I would gladly swap picks in 1,2 & 4.

You have one of the big 3 at RB, you can take a top WR in Rd#2 and take the best RB/WR at #3 and your lower pick at #4. There has to be some value that drops to you in the 4th round. Not all owners pick by the numbers and (I usually see the QB's go earlier in my leagues than what their ADP's are.)

That being said, if I were in the top 3, I don't know if this offer is enough to get me to give up #3. You may really need to sell the fact that they won't have to wait so long between picks. It may also help if this owner is a serious owner that does a lot of homework because he may already have a plan in mind where your picks would make sense to him. Perhaps moving down in 1 he is targeting (R.Brown, R.Johnson, or Cadillac) and is thinking about grabbing a specific RB or top WR in the 2nd, etc.)

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Nothing -- the top three all come with too many questions to pay what you'd have to pay to get them.

I might make a move for Portis, Brown or Jackson though, since I think two or three of them will go off this year.

 

[Dolfan]

I don't think swapping 1, 2, and 4 is nearly good enough to move from 8 to 3 this year. If your initial offer was lower than that to me, I would take it as you insulting my acumen. If that was your initial offer, I would politely decline...

 

[SpinDoc]

I was at 10 in a twelve team league and I thought it was worth the move to move up to get a top 3 pick. My rationale was that being in the 3rd division (picks 9-12) I would have a decided advantage over the guys in my division with a true superstar in one of the Big 3. Besides, at 10/15 there are so many question marks. I was probably looking at Cadillac and McGahee which did not thrill me.

I traded 10, 15, 31, and 106 for 1, 26, 59, and 80. So I don't have a second rounder and I have two 5ths, but I will have a superstar in Larry Johnson. In Johnson I now have a guy who can win 4-5 games virtually by himself. Now I just need to draft a solid corp around him.

 

[pacman_fl]

I know it's easy to use the pick value calculator, but I think a top 3 pick carries more weight this year than usual, no?I pick #8 and got a nibble from the owner at #3 (12-teamer). I'm not looking for what I should offer here, I'll obviously try to lowball him without insulting his acumen, but I wonder what ultimately would present a good deal. For instance, would you swap picks in rounds 1, 2, and 4?

For what's it's worth, I just did exactly what you are asking about for my Dynasty league. I had 3, he had 8. I gave up 1.3, 4.10, 5.3 for 1.8, 2.5 and 8.5. I wanted to accumulate picks since it's a first year league, so I moved the 8 and now have 4 of the first 25 picks. I like the flexibility there more than the though of the 3.3 pick.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I don't think swapping 1, 2, and 4 is nearly good enough to move from 8 to 3 this year. If your initial offer was lower than that to me, I would take it as you insulting my acumen. If that was your initial offer, I would politely decline...

Uh oh. I just offered to swap 1st, 2nd, and 6th rounders.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

If I was 8 looking to move up into top 3 I would gladly swap picks in 1,2 & 4.You have one of the big 3 at RB, you can take a top WR in Rd#2 and take the best RB/WR at #3 and your lower pick at #4. There has to be some value that drops to you in the 4th round. Not all owners pick by the numbers and (I usually see the QB's go earlier in my leagues than what their ADP's are.)That being said, if I were in the top 3, I don't know if this offer is enough to get me to give up #3. You may really need to sell the fact that they won't have to wait so long between picks. It may also help if this owner is a serious owner that does a lot of homework because he may already have a plan in mind where your picks would make sense to him. Perhaps moving down in 1 he is targeting (R.Brown, R.Johnson, or Cadillac) and is thinking about grabbing a specific RB or top WR in the 2nd, etc.)

When offering 8, 17, and 65 for 3, 22, and 70, I stressed that I loved the 17 pick this year (I actually do) and that I saw a drop off in talent at around 20 or 21 (I do.) Now, I'd bet one of my top 20 will fall to 22, and hence will gladly make a deal, but I figured I'd offer a swap of 1st, 2nd, and 6th and see what he says. I can always make him feel like he's getting the better of me (hopefully) by accepting a counter offer. If he wants an outright pick, however (like he wants my 1st and 2nd rounders for his 1st and 4th,) I doubt I'd pull the trigger.

 

[MLBrandow]

I wouldn't give anything because SA is a lock for it, and that leaves either Portis or LT to me at 4...

So, I try to move into 4. Much cheaper. That is if I move at all.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I wouldn't give anything because SA is a lock for it, and that leaves either Portis or LT to me at 4...So, I try to move into 4. Much cheaper. That is if I move at all.

I actually made overtures towards acquiring the 4 pick, but I think the cat got cold feet because I asked him to make an offer and he never did.

 

[pigskinliquors]

I wouldn't give anything because SA is a lock for it, and that leaves either Portis or LT to me at 4...So, I try to move into 4. Much cheaper. That is if I move at all.

How would LT be available to you at 4?In response to the posted question: swapping picks 1, 2 & 4 (if you can pull it off), at pick #7 through 10 is a no-brainer to me. Picks 11 and 12 look very intriguing to me, and I love picking on the turn = they would be a toss-up to me.

 

[Dolfan]

I wouldn't give anything because SA is a lock for it, and that leaves either Portis or LT to me at 4...So, I try to move into 4. Much cheaper. That is if I move at all.

I see a clear drop off after SA, LJ, and LT and before Portis. To me Portis is not in that tier... But, you guys are making me feel better about my chances of trading out of the 4 or 5 spot should I draw that Me, I either want a top 3 or to trade out of the 1st round all-together... There are a ton of RBs in the 2nd and 3rd round (and later) that I like this year, not to mention the quality of WRs you can get in the 2nd and the fact that Peyton Manning could be had in the 2nd... I'll try to figure out a way to stockpile all of the 2nd and 3rd round picks I can get by moving out of the 1st round if I don't draw a top 3 pick.

 

[MLBrandow]

I actually made overtures towards acquiring the 4 pick, but I think the cat got cold feet because I asked him to make an offer and he never did.

My problem is if I'm in the 4 spot, and three FF nuts draft ahead and take LJ, Portis, LT... that leaves me with the guy I didn't want in SA.I would be hard-pressed to take Barber over SA, as there is a clear drop-off after the 1-3 (to the tune of about 40-50 points), and that is not the position I want to be in at all, as I have him at RB9.I probably take SA and try to trade him, but that is always a risky move. Trade down would be much better, but I'd only want to flop to 5.... maybe pick up a mid-rounder to do it.Dicey for sure... for me anyway.

 

[Synthesizer]

I can't believe people are now trying to move Portis into that top 3 discussion. The other 3 guys have proven that they are on that 2000 yard 20+ TD level. Portis has gone HUGE stretches without a TD and has only scored a TD in 12 of his 31 games as a Redskin. No way he's on the same level as those other guys.

 

[MLBrandow]

I can't believe people are now trying to move Portis into that top 3 discussion. The other 3 guys have proven that they are on that 2000 yard 20+ TD level. Portis has gone HUGE stretches without a TD and has only scored a TD in 12 of his 31 games as a Redskin. No way he's on the same level as those other guys.

Yeah, and 8 of those 12 games were last year, including 7 in the last 10 weeks. His team also did something when they were giving Portis the ball in the red-zone: they were winning.You also neglect to mention that he had 9 100 yard rushing games, as opposed to 5 in '04.

Call me crazy, but I think that after settling on a QB, and after getting his best OL back from injury last year, and now this offseason working in a system under Al Saunders that is habitually condusive of 20+TD backs, working under a hall-of-game HC and the 2nd best DC in the league... I'd say he's definitely on the same level as "those other guys".

You saw in Denver he was easily capable of being a 1500/15 back, with a potential to be even better.

FWIW -

Seasons of 2000+ yards -

LaDainian Tomlinson - 2 ('02, '03)

Larry Johnson - 1 ('05)

Shaun Alexander - 0

Clinton Portis - 0

Seasons of 20+ TDs -

Shaun Alexander - 2 ('04, '05)

Larry Johnson - 1 ('05)

LaDainian Tomlinson - 1 ('05)

Clinton Portis - 0

 

[wannabee]

I think there is atleast a 10% premium (per the pick calculator) to move up to top 3 picks from pick 8. The reasoning is that the calculator does not know where the talent dropoff is. And I think 10% is quite cheap considering you should get WAY more production, stability, and known product than at 1.08.

Just a gut feel, I would say something like:

1.08 and 4.05 for 1.03 and 7.03

 

[The Jerk]

FWIW - Seasons of 2000+ yards -LaDainian Tomlinson - 2 ('02, '03)Larry Johnson - 1 ('05)Shaun Alexander - 0Clinton Portis - 0Seasons of 20+ TDs -Shaun Alexander - 2 ('04, '05)Larry Johnson - 1 ('05)LaDainian Tomlinson - 1 ('05)Clinton Portis - 0

Nice job of picking the boundary. You could have a future as a politician with such gerrymandering.Change the TD threshold to 18 TDs:Alexander 3 ('02, '04, '05)Tomlinson 2 ('05, '04)Johnson 1 ('05)Portis 1 ('02)Change the TD threshold to 16 TDs:Alexander 5 (last five years)Tomlinson 3 (last three years)Johnson 1 (only year as a starter)Portis 1 ('02 -- with Broncos)Yardage is not as unfavorable to Portis.Total yards gained, 2002-2005:Tomlinson 8150Alexander 7189Portis 7059Top individual total yards seasons:Tomlinson 2370 ('03)Tomlinson 2172 ('02)Alexander 1958 ('05)Portis 1905 ('03)Portis 1872 ('02)Alexander 1866 ('04)Tomlinson 1832 ('05)Note that Portis had his best years with the Broncos, while SA has his past two seasons, and LT 3 of his past 4.Don't pretend Portis has produced at the level of the very top backs. He MAY produce this year, but so far he HAS NOT as a Redskin.

 

[Synthesizer]

I can't believe people are now trying to move Portis into that top 3 discussion. The other 3 guys have proven that they are on that 2000 yard 20+ TD level. Portis has gone HUGE stretches without a TD and has only scored a TD in 12 of his 31 games as a Redskin. No way he's on the same level as those other guys.

Yeah, and 8 of those 12 games were last year, including 7 in the last 10 weeks. His team also did something when they were giving Portis the ball in the red-zone: they were winning.

So Portis scored in 8 of his 16 games last year. Alexander scored in 14, Johnson scored in 11 (even counting the games he only had 6 or 7 carries), and Tomlinson scored in 10. Considering Tomlinson had scored in 18 straight games at one point, I'm confident in saying Portis is not on their level when it comes to TDs.

You saw in Denver he was easily capable of being a 1500/15 back, with a potential to be even better.

Plenty of guys have gone for 1500/15 with Denver. But I'm only concerned with what he's doing with the Redskins.

FWIW -

Seasons of 2000+ yards -

LaDainian Tomlinson - 2 ('02, '03)

Larry Johnson - 1 ('05)

Shaun Alexander - 0

Clinton Portis - 0

Seasons of 20+ TDs -

Shaun Alexander - 2 ('04, '05)

Larry Johnson - 1 ('05)

LaDainian Tomlinson - 1 ('05)

Clinton Portis - 0

Alexander2004 - 1900 yards and 20 TDs

2005 - 1950 yards and 28 TDs

LJ

2004 - 850 yards and 11 TDs

2005 - 2100 yards and 21 TDs

Tomlinson

2004 - 1800 yards and 18 TDs

2005 - 1800 yards and 20 TDs

Portis

2004 - 1550 yards and 7 TDs

2005 - 1700 yards and 11 TDs

Not even close the same level of performance as the other 3 guys.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I know it's easy to use the pick value calculator, but I think a top 3 pick carries more weight this year than usual, no?I pick #8 and got a nibble from the owner at #3 (12-teamer). I'm not looking for what I should offer here, I'll obviously try to lowball him without insulting his acumen, but I wonder what ultimately would present a good deal. For instance, would you swap picks in rounds 1, 2, and 4?

-- throw in a late rounder for good measure to make it look even sweeter.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I know it's easy to use the pick value calculator, but I think a top 3 pick carries more weight this year than usual, no?I pick #8 and got a nibble from the owner at #3 (12-teamer). I'm not looking for what I should offer here, I'll obviously try to lowball him without insulting his acumen, but I wonder what ultimately would present a good deal. For instance, would you swap picks in rounds 1, 2, and 4?

-- throw in a late rounder for good measure to make it look even sweeter.

Excellent idea.

 

[The Gang Green]

Nothing -- the top three all come with too many questions to pay what you'd have to pay to get them.I might make a move for Portis, Brown or Jackson though, since I think two or three of them will go off this year.

On a related topic, I have the #7 pick, but no 2nd rounder. Then I pick #s 31, 42, 55, 66, 79, etc. Is it worth it to get the #9 overall pick in a trade for my 31, 55 and 108? I'll still have my 4th and 6th rounders. I traded my 2nd ronder last year for Steve Smith in week 10, he cooled off and I finished in second place. Or should I just stand pat and ride out the draft at my in the current position?Thanks in advance.

 

[jurb26]

Why would you bother trading a kings ransome for a top 3 pick when the #4 pick is the best to be at and comes far cheaper?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Why would you bother trading a kings ransome for a top 3 pick when the #4 pick is the best to be at and comes far cheaper?

In my case, the owner at #4 has shown to be somewhat unwilling to negotiate.