Whats the chance that Hightower stays as #1 all season? (1 Viewer)

[iknowsquat]

Beanie already can't stay on the field. Can Hightower stay #1 all season?

Where do you get the nickname "Beanie"?

 

[Banger]

the chance he stays #1 all year is probably around 10%.

 

[iknowsquat]

the chance he stays #1 all year is probably around 10%.

any AZ people chime in.

 

[Kit Fisto]

the chance he stays #1 all year is probably around 10%.

People said the same about DeAngelo last year too.Jus' sayin'

 

[Faust]

Beanie already can't stay on the field. Can Hightower stay #1 all season?Where do you get the nickname "Beanie"?

From his wiki page:NicknameThe nickname Beanie was given to him by his family at a young age and he is quoted as saying, "I got the nickname because when I was a baby, I came out and my big brother said I had a bean head." Also he is featured on the Athlon Sports College Football Annual Cover for the Big Ten with the words "Beanie Ball".

 

[drew726]

10-25%

 

[kutta]

It's really hard to say. Word out of camp is that Hightower is looking very very good. My gut feeling is that Hightower will get the chance early to start. IF he performs well, it will be tough for Beanie to take over as the starter. Also, Hightower will probably still get the short yardage and goal line work.

I am actually hoping Beanie takes over as the starter sooner rather than later because I am just not a believer in Hightower as the starter. But it is just very hard right now to predict how this will play out. But I will predict that Hightower will score more fantasy points than Beanie this year.

 

[Banger]

the chance he stays #1 all year is probably around 10%.

People said the same about DeAngelo last year too.Jus' sayin'

I'd say there's a little difference skillwise between the two.

 

[Kit Fisto]

the chance he stays #1 all year is probably around 10%.

People said the same about DeAngelo last year too.Jus' sayin'

I'd say there's a little difference skillwise between the two.

While I agree with you that the difference in skills between Hightower and DWill is significant, I think shoveling dirt on a guy just because the team drafted a hot-shot rookie is short-sighted. And that's just what people did to DeAngelo last year. Prior to last year, he was also considered disappointing and replaceable.RBBC's are all the rage these days; even three-headed RBBC's are taking over. First-round draft status doesn't mean you get handed the starting gig like it used to.

 

[TheFanatic]

I love to watch Hightower run. He's a beast and runs with ferocity. He's violence in motion. He's also slow.

 

[jurb26]

I'd put those chances at around 5%. Wells is going to prove to be vastly superior in ability and I think the only reason he would not take over at one point or the other would be injury. Even still, the chances of Wells being injured for the entire season are small. Thus the 5%.

 

[kface]

with these two in the backfield they will end up throwing 60 times a game anyway...

 

[wadegarrett]

Regardless of who's listed as #1, this has RBBC written all over it.

 

[Banger]

the chance he stays #1 all year is probably around 10%.

People said the same about DeAngelo last year too.Jus' sayin'

I'd say there's a little difference skillwise between the two.

While I agree with you that the difference in skills between Hightower and DWill is significant, I think shoveling dirt on a guy just because the team drafted a hot-shot rookie is short-sighted. And that's just what people did to DeAngelo last year. Prior to last year, he was also considered disappointing and replaceable.RBBC's are all the rage these days; even three-headed RBBC's are taking over. First-round draft status doesn't mean you get handed the starting gig like it used to.

It's not so much the hotshot rookie factor but more the case that I don't think Hightower is very good. Crazier things have happened but I just don't see Hightower being the man there. I've been wrong before though....

 

[jestertj]

I love to watch Hightower run. He's a beast and runs with ferocity. He's violence in motion. He's also slow.

So he's violence in slow motion?

 

[TheFanatic]

I love to watch Hightower run. He's a beast and runs with ferocity. He's violence in motion. He's also slow.

So he's violence in slow motion?

Well, yeah. I mean not to you and I. He would run circles around us. And in open space he is just fun to watch. But then seeing a LB close on him like a ski boat passing a tug just ruins it....

 

[azgroover]

LaRod Stephens-Howling has also been getting reps and good reviews in Wells' absence. I'm keeping a close eye on him this preseason. Wouldn't be the first time we've ever seen a late round draft pick come out of nowhere to steal the spotlight in this league.

 

[Knobs]

IIRC, Hightower had one of the worst ypc's for any starter over the last several decades.

The only way he stays #1 is if Beanie is a massive bust right out of the gates, or if he gets knocked out for the year with an injury. He may be the 'starter' in name for several weeks, but I'll be incredibly surprised if he's getting the bulk of the work come week 4.

 

[azgroover]

IIRC, Hightower had one of the worst ypc's for any starter over the last several decades.

It was during the Hightower starts in the middle of the year that many of the pundits were referring to the Cardinals as having "abandoned the run"

 

[Loan Sharks]

G C YDS YPC

16 143 399 2.8

You guys are way over thinking this. When Hightower was the number 1 he only got 8.9 carries a game for a horrific 2.8 per carry. The guy was averaging 24 yards a GAME as the number one back.

Barring injury to Wells, there is a 0% chance that Hightower is the #1 for a significant part of the season.

Hightower has a useful role in a committee but he is not a feature back.

 

[Lab]

Hightower will probably still get the short yardage and goal line work.

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries. I know Hightower knocked in a ton of TDs in 2008, but wasn't a lot of that due to opportunity since Edge is older and smaller? Or does Hightower have some sort of goal line magic?James 6'0" 216lbs

Hightower 6'0" 226lbs

Wells 6'1" 235lbs

If anything, it seems like Wells should be the short-yardage back, not Hightower. I guess if Wells becomes the clear-cut starter, then maybe the coaches might want to use Hightower in short yardage situations to save Wells from wear-and-tear. But if you really need some short yardage, why wouldn't you use your 235lb beast?

 

[goat]

My prediction is Wells gets the start a couple weeks into the season, gets hurt the next game, and Hightower finishes out the season.

 

[Traders2001]

Guys ...

Hightower finished with a 2,8 yards per carry average last season , he better improved a hell of a lot to get a chance at the starting spot.

 

[TheFanatic]

Guys ...Hightower finished with a 2,8 yards per carry average last season , he better improved a hell of a lot to get a chance at the starting spot.

HighTower's YPC makes Reggie Bush look like a good RB!!!And to Lab on why Hightower will or won't get the goal line carries. Simple, he has proven he can do it. He may not be able to bust around the outside but he can put his head down and fight his way into the endzone. We don't know if Beanie can do that. Also, teams are moving more and more into a RBBC league and specializing roles. The GL is something that is getting to be more common...

 

[lyon812]

I love to watch Hightower run. He's a beast and runs with ferocity. He's violence in motion. He's also slow.

4.51, as slow as Donald Brown and faster than Knowshon Moreno. His problems stemmed from an inability to mentally adjust to the speed of the NFL. If Hightower were able to read the holes better, he could be a fairly decent option at RB. Since that sort of growth isn't unheard of, it's entirely possible he'll end up a serviceable every-down back, though never a stud (NFL or fantasy). However, I think Wells is clearly superior in all aspects except the passing game, where Hightower really shines.

 

[TheFanatic]

I love to watch Hightower run. He's a beast and runs with ferocity. He's violence in motion. He's also slow.

4.51, as slow as Donald Brown and faster than Knowshon Moreno.

His problems stemmed from an inability to mentally adjust to the speed of the NFL. If Hightower were able to read the holes better, he could be a fairly decent option at RB. Since that sort of growth isn't unheard of, it's entirely possible he'll end up a serviceable every-down back, though never a stud (NFL or fantasy). However, I think Wells is clearly superior in all aspects except the passing game, where Hightower really shines.

Guys like Jerry Rice run faster than their 40 time. He does the opposite. He can't turn the corner to save his life... He may run 4.51 on a timed track but he's not that fast on the field. Maybe vision is part of it, but it's not all of it...

 

[kutta]

Hightower will probably still get the short yardage and goal line work.

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries. I know Hightower knocked in a ton of TDs in 2008, but wasn't a lot of that due to opportunity since Edge is older and smaller? Or does Hightower have some sort of goal line magic?James 6'0" 216lbs

Hightower 6'0" 226lbs

Wells 6'1" 235lbs

If anything, it seems like Wells should be the short-yardage back, not Hightower. I guess if Wells becomes the clear-cut starter, then maybe the coaches might want to use Hightower in short yardage situations to save Wells from wear-and-tear. But if you really need some short yardage, why wouldn't you use your 235lb beast?

Hightower is good in short yardage. In his rookie year, the coaches used him a lot on the goal line and in 3rd and 4th and short situations. Against he Eagles in the NFC championship game, Hightower got the ball in the 4th quarter on 4th and 1 at midfield. He also had a very good short yardage TD. The coaches trust him in those situations.Here are some stats for you. If you look at last year on runs from the 5 yard line to the goal line, here's where Hightower ranked (rank, name, attempts, yards, tds):

1 LenDale White 21 27 12

2 Brandon Jacobs 20 21 12

3 Michael Turner 19 34 12

4 Tim Hightower 18 16 8

5. DeAngelo Williams 12 22 8

6 LeRon McClain 18 16 8

7 T.J. Duckett rb 11 12 7

8 Jonathan Stewart 10 15 7

9 Clinton Portis 12 22 7

10 Maurice Jones-Drew 12 17 7

It might seem like Beanie should be the goal line back, but Hightower sure had the opportunities last year and there is no indication that is going to change this year.

 

[SammyJankis]

Stay #1? Heck, Hightower wants to redefine the position of RB.

 

[jurb26]

Hightower will probably still get the short yardage and goal line work.

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries. I know Hightower knocked in a ton of TDs in 2008, but wasn't a lot of that due to opportunity since Edge is older and smaller? Or does Hightower have some sort of goal line magic?James 6'0" 216lbs

Hightower 6'0" 226lbs

Wells 6'1" 235lbs

If anything, it seems like Wells should be the short-yardage back, not Hightower. I guess if Wells becomes the clear-cut starter, then maybe the coaches might want to use Hightower in short yardage situations to save Wells from wear-and-tear. But if you really need some short yardage, why wouldn't you use your 235lb beast?

Hightower is good in short yardage. In his rookie year, the coaches used him a lot on the goal line and in 3rd and 4th and short situations. Against he Eagles in the NFC championship game, Hightower got the ball in the 4th quarter on 4th and 1 at midfield. He also had a very good short yardage TD. The coaches trust him in those situations.Here are some stats for you. If you look at last year on runs from the 5 yard line to the goal line, here's where Hightower ranked (rank, name, attempts, yards, tds):

1 LenDale White 21 27 12

2 Brandon Jacobs 20 21 12

3 Michael Turner 19 34 12

4 Tim Hightower 18 16 8

5. DeAngelo Williams 12 22 8

6 LeRon McClain 18 16 8

7 T.J. Duckett rb 11 12 7

8 Jonathan Stewart 10 15 7

9 Clinton Portis 12 22 7

10 Maurice Jones-Drew 12 17 7

It might seem like Beanie should be the goal line back, but Hightower sure had the opportunities last year and there is no indication that is going to change this year.

I'm not predicting who will get the GL work in Arz, but what good are stats from last year when Wells was not on the team? Those saying that Wells will get the work are of the opinion that he is better suited for it and therefore these numbers are worthless.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Stay #1? Heck, Hightower wants to redefine the position of RB.

I'd say the position is usually defined by a guy running for somewhat more than 3 ypc --- so, mission accomplished.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

the chance he stays #1 all year is probably around 10%.

People said the same about DeAngelo last year too.Jus' sayin'

I'd say there's a little difference skillwise between the two.

Very different (and fairly complementary) skill sets, but the overall result is probably about the same.

 

[SammyJankis]

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries.

Hightower is a lock to get the goal-line carries. He certainly had problems as a starter last year, but was money in both short yardage and goal-line situations. Can't find the exact stats I'm looking for, but take a look at the FootballGuys goal-line stats: linkThose short yardage stats look pretty good. Ex: Five more TDs than Ryan Grant in 12 less carries, 1 less touchdown than MJD in comparable carries, 2 more TDs than Barber with six less carries, etc.

Hightower is a great goal-line runner. Its certainlly possible that Wells could take over as the #1 and eat up maybe 2/3 of the yards, but I fully expect Timmy to get his on the goal-line.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think Hightower's success in short yardage situations from last year is quite a bit overblown. As bad as Zona's line was, for whatever reason they were pretty good in short yardage. Maybe it's because they were still so willing to spread the formation or go to Fitz/Boldin in goaline and short-yardage situations that most teams still had to respect that even in those situations.

Edge is traditionally an AWFUL short-yardage and goaline back. One of the worst starting RBs in those situations the last decade (and Peyton Manning has Edge's ineptitude in short yardage to thank for his 48 TD season). But even Edge, who for his career is somewhere around 35% on converting short yardage situations, converted around 60% last year. Far above any other season in his career.

 

[SammyJankis]

I think Hightower's success in short yardage situations from last year is quite a bit overblown. As bad as Zona's line was, for whatever reason they were pretty good in short yardage. Maybe it's because they were still so willing to spread the formation or go to Fitz/Boldin in goaline and short-yardage situations that most teams still had to respect that even in those situations.Edge is traditionally an AWFUL short-yardage and goaline back. One of the worst starting RBs in those situations the last decade (and Peyton Manning has Edge's ineptitude in short yardage to thank for his 48 TD season). But even Edge, who for his career is somewhere around 35% on converting short yardage situations, converted around 60% last year. Far above any other season in his career.

How would you explain James' 24 carries in the red zone and 3 TDs when compared against Hightower's 34 carries and 9 scores? Seems like Hightower was scoring on a much higher clip near the goal line.This trend continued into the playoffs. In four playoff games, James carried 61 times to Hightowers 35, yet Hightower outscored James 3TDs to 1 in those four games.The "Hightower isn't that good of a goal-line/short-yardage runner" arguement is smothered in weak sauce IMO.

 

[jurb26]

I think Hightower's success in short yardage situations from last year is quite a bit overblown. As bad as Zona's line was, for whatever reason they were pretty good in short yardage. Maybe it's because they were still so willing to spread the formation or go to Fitz/Boldin in goaline and short-yardage situations that most teams still had to respect that even in those situations.Edge is traditionally an AWFUL short-yardage and goaline back. One of the worst starting RBs in those situations the last decade (and Peyton Manning has Edge's ineptitude in short yardage to thank for his 48 TD season). But even Edge, who for his career is somewhere around 35% on converting short yardage situations, converted around 60% last year. Far above any other season in his career.

How would you explain James' 24 carries in the red zone and 3 TDs when compared against Hightower's 34 carries and 9 scores? Seems like Hightower was scoring on a much higher clip near the goal line.This trend continued into the playoffs. In four playoff games, James carried 61 times to Hightowers 35, yet Hightower outscored James 3TDs to 1 in those four games.The "Hightower isn't that good of a goal-line/short-yardage runner" arguement is smothered in weak sauce IMO.

Redzone =/ GL. How many of Edges' and Hightowers' looks were at the GL?

 

[Loan Sharks]

Hightower will probably still get the short yardage and goal line work.

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries. I know Hightower knocked in a ton of TDs in 2008, but wasn't a lot of that due to opportunity since Edge is older and smaller? Or does Hightower have some sort of goal line magic?James 6'0" 216lbs

Hightower 6'0" 226lbs

Wells 6'1" 235lbs

If anything, it seems like Wells should be the short-yardage back, not Hightower. I guess if Wells becomes the clear-cut starter, then maybe the coaches might want to use Hightower in short yardage situations to save Wells from wear-and-tear. But if you really need some short yardage, why wouldn't you use your 235lb beast?

Hightower is good in short yardage. In his rookie year, the coaches used him a lot on the goal line and in 3rd and 4th and short situations. Against he Eagles in the NFC championship game, Hightower got the ball in the 4th quarter on 4th and 1 at midfield. He also had a very good short yardage TD. The coaches trust him in those situations.Here are some stats for you. If you look at last year on runs from the 5 yard line to the goal line, here's where Hightower ranked (rank, name, attempts, yards, tds):

1 LenDale White 21 27 12

2 Brandon Jacobs 20 21 12

3 Michael Turner 19 34 12

4 Tim Hightower 18 16 8

5. DeAngelo Williams 12 22 8

6 LeRon McClain 18 16 8

7 T.J. Duckett rb 11 12 7

8 Jonathan Stewart 10 15 7

9 Clinton Portis 12 22 7

10 Maurice Jones-Drew 12 17 7

It might seem like Beanie should be the goal line back, but Hightower sure had the opportunities last year and there is no indication that is going to change this year.

So what you are pointing out with those stats is that Hightower is tied for least productive running back inside the 5?Hightower and McClain are the only two who have negative yards inside the 5, so you are saying he is a great goal line back because he gets stuffed the most on the goal line?

I guess if you are trying to show a guy who had a lot of opportunities to clearly show that he gets stuffed on the goal line in addition to getting a whopping 24 yards a game as a number 1 running back and averages 2.8 yards a carry and has a first round RB drafted behind him is a lock to be the starter, mission accomplished.

 

[Loan Sharks]

I think Hightower's success in short yardage situations from last year is quite a bit overblown. As bad as Zona's line was, for whatever reason they were pretty good in short yardage. Maybe it's because they were still so willing to spread the formation or go to Fitz/Boldin in goaline and short-yardage situations that most teams still had to respect that even in those situations.Edge is traditionally an AWFUL short-yardage and goaline back. One of the worst starting RBs in those situations the last decade (and Peyton Manning has Edge's ineptitude in short yardage to thank for his 48 TD season). But even Edge, who for his career is somewhere around 35% on converting short yardage situations, converted around 60% last year. Far above any other season in his career.

How would you explain James' 24 carries in the red zone and 3 TDs when compared against Hightower's 34 carries and 9 scores? Seems like Hightower was scoring on a much higher clip near the goal line.This trend continued into the playoffs. In four playoff games, James carried 61 times to Hightowers 35, yet Hightower outscored James 3TDs to 1 in those four games.The "Hightower isn't that good of a goal-line/short-yardage runner" arguement is smothered in weak sauce IMO.

I explain it like this. Hightower's carries were from inside the 5. Jame's carries were from the 5 to the 20. I like how you choose to use "red zone" against one guy, instead of the clear inside the 5 stats where Hightower was the worst guy from inside the 5 amongst those with similar carries.

 

[Loan Sharks]

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries.

Hightower is a lock to get the goal-line carries. He certainly had problems as a starter last year, but was money in both short yardage and goal-line situations. Can't find the exact stats I'm looking for, but take a look at the FootballGuys goal-line stats: linkThose short yardage stats look pretty good. Ex: Five more TDs than Ryan Grant in 12 less carries, 1 less touchdown than MJD in comparable carries, 2 more TDs than Barber with six less carries, etc.

Hightower is a great goal-line runner. Its certainlly possible that Wells could take over as the #1 and eat up maybe 2/3 of the yards, but I fully expect Timmy to get his on the goal-line.

1 LenDale White 21 27 122 Brandon Jacobs 20 21 12

3 Michael Turner 19 34 12

4 Tim Hightower 18 16 8

5. DeAngelo Williams 12 22 8

6 LeRon McClain 18 16 8

7 T.J. Duckett rb 11 12 7

8 Jonathan Stewart 10 15 7

9 Clinton Portis 12 22 7

10 Maurice Jones-Drew 12 17 7

Carries per touchdown in goal line situations

Lendale White 1.75

Brandon Jacobs 1.66

Michael Turner 1.58

Deangelo Williams 1.5

Leron McClain 2.25

Tim Hightower 2.25

T.J. Duckett 1.57

Johnathan Stewart 1.42

Clinton Portis 1.71

Maurice Jones-Drew 1.71

So of all the goal line backs Hightower and McClain are the only ones that need more than two shots to punch it in? Yeah he has negative yards and the worst td/carry ratio of anyone in short yardage at the goal line , if that is "money" in goal line and short yardage I think you might have some wooden nickels, pesos and Canadian pennies you accidentally counted.

 

[Multiple Scores]

My prediction is Wells gets the start a couple weeks into the season, gets hurt the next game, and Hightower finishes out the season.

Bad mojo right here.

 

[kutta]

Hightower will probably still get the short yardage and goal line work.

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries. I know Hightower knocked in a ton of TDs in 2008, but wasn't a lot of that due to opportunity since Edge is older and smaller? Or does Hightower have some sort of goal line magic?James 6'0" 216lbs

Hightower 6'0" 226lbs

Wells 6'1" 235lbs

If anything, it seems like Wells should be the short-yardage back, not Hightower. I guess if Wells becomes the clear-cut starter, then maybe the coaches might want to use Hightower in short yardage situations to save Wells from wear-and-tear. But if you really need some short yardage, why wouldn't you use your 235lb beast?

Hightower is good in short yardage. In his rookie year, the coaches used him a lot on the goal line and in 3rd and 4th and short situations. Against he Eagles in the NFC championship game, Hightower got the ball in the 4th quarter on 4th and 1 at midfield. He also had a very good short yardage TD. The coaches trust him in those situations.Here are some stats for you. If you look at last year on runs from the 5 yard line to the goal line, here's where Hightower ranked (rank, name, attempts, yards, tds):

1 LenDale White 21 27 12

2 Brandon Jacobs 20 21 12

3 Michael Turner 19 34 12

4 Tim Hightower 18 16 8

5. DeAngelo Williams 12 22 8

6 LeRon McClain 18 16 8

7 T.J. Duckett rb 11 12 7

8 Jonathan Stewart 10 15 7

9 Clinton Portis 12 22 7

10 Maurice Jones-Drew 12 17 7

It might seem like Beanie should be the goal line back, but Hightower sure had the opportunities last year and there is no indication that is going to change this year.

So what you are pointing out with those stats is that Hightower is tied for least productive running back inside the 5?Hightower and McClain are the only two who have negative yards inside the 5, so you are saying he is a great goal line back because he gets stuffed the most on the goal line?

I guess if you are trying to show a guy who had a lot of opportunities to clearly show that he gets stuffed on the goal line in addition to getting a whopping 24 yards a game as a number 1 running back and averages 2.8 yards a carry and has a first round RB drafted behind him is a lock to be the starter, mission accomplished.

I never said he was "a lock to be the starter." Please don't put words in my mouth. Just a little earlier in this thread I said:"I am actually hoping Beanie takes over as the starter sooner rather than later because I am just not a believer in Hightower as the starter. But it is just very hard right now to predict how this will play out."

What I am pointing out is that Hightower tied for 4th in the league for attempts inside the five yard line. There has been zero talk from anyone close to the Cardinals that this is going to change. Because you think Beanie would make a good goal line back does not mean he is, or that the coaches will put him in the game in those situations. We know for certain that the coaches like Hightower in short yardage and they are not afraid to use him. I think that trend will continue this year. If you disagree, please point to any bit of news, or anything said in the local media in Arizona, or anything said by anyone close to the Cardinals that will even hint that Beanie will get the goal line work. I would love to see it.

Anything can happen. I am just telling you that, in my opinion, as someone who follows the Cardinals very closely, as someone who attends every home game and watches every road game on TV, sometimes twice, as someone who reads everything available on the Cardinals, that I think Hightower will get the goal line work again this year. Take that for what it's worth.

 

[Loan Sharks]

I don't understand why people keep saying Hightower is likely to get goal line carries. I know Hightower knocked in a ton of TDs in 2008, but wasn't a lot of that due to opportunity since Edge is older and smaller? Or does Hightower have some sort of goal line magic?

James 6'0" 216lbs

Hightower 6'0" 226lbs

Wells 6'1" 235lbs

If anything, it seems like Wells should be the short-yardage back, not Hightower. I guess if Wells becomes the clear-cut starter, then maybe the coaches might want to use Hightower in short yardage situations to save Wells from wear-and-tear. But if you really need some short yardage, why wouldn't you use your 235lb beast?

Hightower is good in short yardage. In his rookie year, the coaches used him a lot on the goal line and in 3rd and 4th and short situations. Against he Eagles in the NFC championship game, Hightower got the ball in the 4th quarter on 4th and 1 at midfield. He also had a very good short yardage TD. The coaches trust him in those situations.Here are some stats for you. If you look at last year on runs from the 5 yard line to the goal line, here's where Hightower ranked (rank, name, attempts, yards, tds):

1 LenDale White 21 27 12

2 Brandon Jacobs 20 21 12

3 Michael Turner 19 34 12

4 Tim Hightower 18 16 8

5. DeAngelo Williams 12 22 8

6 LeRon McClain 18 16 8

7 T.J. Duckett rb 11 12 7

8 Jonathan Stewart 10 15 7

9 Clinton Portis 12 22 7

10 Maurice Jones-Drew 12 17 7

It might seem like Beanie should be the goal line back, but Hightower sure had the opportunities last year and there is no indication that is going to change this year.

So what you are pointing out with those stats is that Hightower is tied for least productive running back inside the 5?Hightower and McClain are the only two who have negative yards inside the 5, so you are saying he is a great goal line back because he gets stuffed the most on the goal line?

I guess if you are trying to show a guy who had a lot of opportunities to clearly show that he gets stuffed on the goal line in addition to getting a whopping 24 yards a game as a number 1 running back and averages 2.8 yards a carry and has a first round RB drafted behind him is a lock to be the starter, mission accomplished.

I never said he was "a lock to be the starter." Please don't put words in my mouth. Just a little earlier in this thread I said:"I am actually hoping Beanie takes over as the starter sooner rather than later because I am just not a believer in Hightower as the starter. But it is just very hard right now to predict how this will play out."

What I am pointing out is that Hightower tied for 4th in the league for attempts inside the five yard line. There has been zero talk from anyone close to the Cardinals that this is going to change. Because you think Beanie would make a good goal line back does not mean he is, or that the coaches will put him in the game in those situations. We know for certain that the coaches like Hightower in short yardage and they are not afraid to use him. I think that trend will continue this year. If you disagree, please point to any bit of news, or anything said in the local media in Arizona, or anything said by anyone close to the Cardinals that will even hint that Beanie will get the goal line work. I would love to see it.

Anything can happen. I am just telling you that, in my opinion, as someone who follows the Cardinals very closely, as someone who attends every home game and watches every road game on TV, sometimes twice, as someone who reads everything available on the Cardinals, that I think Hightower will get the goal line work again this year. Take that for what it's worth.

Kutta, I never metioned Wells one time in any of my posts. I am not making the argument that Wells would be better, or that the coaches will not use Hightower in short yardage. I am making the argument that Hightower is not a great goal line back. Using your stats

1. Hightower had the 4th most goal line shots

2. He is 10th in TD's per attempt out of the top ten, and if we had more data I would wager decent money that Hightower is much lower than 10th in TD efficiency.

3. He has NEGATIVE yardage in goal line situations.

All I am saying is that a guy 4th in attempts is no where near 4th in production with those attempts at least 10th more likely 15-20th in production. To me that says he is NOT a great goal line back. A great goal line back does not get stuffed, and doesn't need over two tries a time to get the ball across the line.

You may very well be right that the coaches will still use him in that way and Wells may not be any better, but the numbers are clear he got a lot of short yardage carries last year and he needed them because he doesn't make the most out of each short yardage or any carry.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think Hightower's success in short yardage situations from last year is quite a bit overblown. As bad as Zona's line was, for whatever reason they were pretty good in short yardage. Maybe it's because they were still so willing to spread the formation or go to Fitz/Boldin in goaline and short-yardage situations that most teams still had to respect that even in those situations.Edge is traditionally an AWFUL short-yardage and goaline back. One of the worst starting RBs in those situations the last decade (and Peyton Manning has Edge's ineptitude in short yardage to thank for his 48 TD season). But even Edge, who for his career is somewhere around 35% on converting short yardage situations, converted around 60% last year. Far above any other season in his career.

How would you explain James' 24 carries in the red zone and 3 TDs when compared against Hightower's 34 carries and 9 scores? Seems like Hightower was scoring on a much higher clip near the goal line.This trend continued into the playoffs. In four playoff games, James carried 61 times to Hightowers 35, yet Hightower outscored James 3TDs to 1 in those four games.The "Hightower isn't that good of a goal-line/short-yardage runner" arguement is smothered in weak sauce IMO.

19 of those 24 carries for James came from outside the 5, that's how.Edge scored on 3 out of 5 carries from inside the 5. In season's past, it's taken him 20+ carries from inside the five to score 3 times.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

As long as Wells stays healthy there is 0% chance THT is the starter all year. The talent diffrence is HUGE.

THT is a situational player.

 

[Tau837]

Loan Sharks, a number of times in this thread you have said that Hightower has negative yardage in goal line situations. I don't understand what you're talking about there. Using DD, considering opportunities between opponent's five and the end zone as goal line opportunities, here are the regular season results for every RB in the league that had at least one carry:

NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT 1 LenDale White rb 2008 21 27 1.29 13 12 74.70 2 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 20 21 1.05 12 12 74.10 3 Steve Slaton rb 2008 20 10 0.50 4 4 25.00 4 Michael Turner rb 2008 19 34 1.79 12 12 75.40 5 Thomas Jones rb 2008 18 13 0.72 5 5 37.50 6 Larry Johnson rb 2008 18 5 0.28 4 4 28.70 7 LeRon McClain rb 2008 18 16 0.89 8 8 49.60 8 Tim Hightower rb 2008 18 16 0.89 9 8 49.60 9 Jamal Lewis rb 2008 18 3 0.17 4 4 24.30 10 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2008 16 22 1.38 8 7 44.20 11 Matt Forte rb 2008 15 16 1.07 6 5 44.30 12 Frank Gore rb 2008 14 17 1.21 4 4 32.10 13 Kevin Smith rb 2008 14 12 0.86 7 5 31.20 14 Ronnie Brown rb 2008 13 22 1.69 6 6 38.20 15 Marion Barber rb 2008 13 17 1.31 7 7 43.70 16 Clinton Portis rb 2008 12 22 1.83 7 7 44.20 17 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2008 12 17 1.42 7 7 50.10 18 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 12 22 1.83 8 8 56.60 19 Marshawn Lynch rb 2008 12 9 0.75 4 3 18.90 20 Brian Westbrook rb 2008 11 7 0.64 4 3 37.30 21 T.J. Duckett rb 2008 11 12 1.09 8 7 43.20 22 Dominic Rhodes rb 2008 11 11 1.00 5 5 37.20 23 Mewelde Moore rb 2008 11 13 1.18 3 3 25.50 24 Jonathan Stewart rb 2008 10 15 1.50 7 7 43.50 25 Ryan Grant rb 2008 10 9 0.90 2 2 12.90 26 Pierre Thomas rb 2008 10 22 2.20 7 6 44.40 27 Sammy Morris rb 2008 10 16 1.60 6 6 37.60 28 Willis McGahee rb 2008 10 26 2.60 6 5 32.60 29 Michael Pittman rb 2008 10 13 1.30 4 4 25.30 30 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 9 3 0.33 5 5 30.30 31 Gary Russell rb 2008 8 7 0.88 4 3 18.70 32 Justin Fargas rb 2008 8 4 0.50 1 1 6.40 33 Deuce McAllister rb 2008 8 13 1.62 5 5 31.30 34 Steven Jackson rb 2008 8 7 0.88 3 3 25.00 35 Willie Parker rb 2008 8 6 0.75 2 2 12.60 36 Joseph Addai rb 2008 7 13 1.86 3 3 19.30 37 Chester Taylor rb 2008 7 9 1.29 2 2 17.10 38 DeShaun Foster rb 2008 6 4 0.67 1 1 6.40 39 Earnest Graham rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 3 22.95 40 BenJarvus Green-Ellis rb 2008 6 11 1.83 5 4 25.10 41 Correll Buckhalter rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 2 19.20 42 Derrick Ward rb 2008 5 -6 -1.20 1 1 5.40 43 LaMont Jordan rb 2008 5 9 1.80 4 3 18.90 44 Fred Taylor rb 2008 5 9 1.80 2 1 6.90 45 Fred Jackson rb 2008 5 9 1.80 1 0 0.90 46 Edgerrin James rb 2008 5 13 2.60 3 3 19.30 47 Ahman Green rb 2008 4 7 1.75 3 3 18.70 48 Mike Karney rb 2008 4 4 1.00 2 2 12.40 49 Chris Johnson rb 2008 4 5 1.25 2 2 12.50 50 Kevin Faulk rb 2008 4 7 1.75 2 2 12.70 51 Peyton Hillis rb 2008 4 6 1.50 2 2 18.70 52 Michael Bush rb 2008 4 8 2.00 1 1 6.80 53 Ryan Torain rb 2008 3 4 1.33 1 1 6.40 54 Cedric Benson rb 2008 3 0 0.00 1 1 6.00 55 John Kuhn rb 2008 3 1 0.33 1 1 18.70 56 Cadillac Williams rb 2008 3 6 2.00 2 1 6.60 57 Ricky Williams rb 2008 3 12 4.00 3 3 19.20 58 Michael Robinson rb 2008 3 2 0.67 0 0 0.20 59 Tashard Choice rb 2008 3 4 1.33 1 1 6.40 60 Jason McKie rb 2008 3 2 0.67 2 2 12.20 61 Antonio Pittman rb 2008 3 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 62 Julius Jones rb 2008 2 6 3.00 0 0 0.60 63 Ladell Betts rb 2008 2 3 1.50 1 1 6.30 64 Xavier Omon rb 2008 2 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 65 Tony Hunt rb 2008 2 1 0.50 1 1 6.10 66 Darren McFadden rb 2008 2 2 1.00 2 2 12.20 67 Leon Washington rb 2008 2 5 2.50 1 1 6.50 68 Brandon Jackson rb 2008 2 -2 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 69 Kolby Smith rb 2008 2 0 0.00 1 1 6.00 70 Warrick Dunn rb 2008 2 -4 -2.00 0 0 -0.40 71 J.J. Arrington rb 2008 2 5 2.50 1 1 6.50 72 Chris Perry rb 2008 2 2 1.00 0 0 0.20 73 Mike Bell rb 2008 2 3 1.50 1 1 6.30 74 Lorenzo Neal rb 2008 2 1 0.50 1 0 0.10 75 Ahmad Bradshaw rb 2008 2 1 0.50 0 0 0.10 76 B.J. Askew rb 2008 2 2 1.00 2 2 12.20 77 Jacob Hester rb 2008 1 4 4.00 1 1 12.50 78 Chad Simpson rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 79 Laurence Maroney rb 2008 1 -1 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 80 Vonta Leach rb 2008 1 1 1.00 1 1 6.10 81 Travis Minor rb 2008 1 -1 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 82 Jerious Norwood rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 83 Montell Owens rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 84 Jamaal Charles rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 85 Leonard Weaver rb 2008 1 3 3.00 0 0 0.30 86 Mike Sellers rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 6.20 87 Darren Sproles rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 88 Ovie Mughelli rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 89 Ahmard Hall rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 90 Michael Bennett rb 2008 1 -2 -2.00 0 0 -0.20 91 Reggie Bush rb 2008 1 3 3.00 1 1 12.80 92 Rudi Johnson rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 93 Ryan Moats rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 94 P.J. Pope rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 95 Mike Cox rb 2008 1 -2 -2.00 0 0 -0.20 96 Selvin Young rb 2008 1 5 5.00 1 1 6.50 97 Aaron Stecker rb 2008 1 1 1.00 0 0 0.10Maybe I'm missing something, but Hightower gained 16 yards on his carries... that's positive 16 yards, not negative 16 yards. So you seem to be misstating that point repeatedly.Aside from that, Hightower was better at the goal line than a number of good RBs, including Slaton, Jones, LJ, Lewis, Lynch, Westbrook, and Kevin Smith.

Here are all of his touches in that area of the field:

Week 1 vs. SF

3 4:05 13 - 10 4th-and-1 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 2 vs. MIA

1 6:21 7 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for -1 yards

3 11:18 17 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards

3 10:33 17 - 0 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 4 vs. NYJ

3 2:53 15 - 34 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 5 vs. BUF

4 10:37 34 - 17 2nd-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 6 vs. DAL

3 4:04 7 - 14 3rd-and-1 opp 5 rushed for 3 yards (first down)

Week 8 vs. CAR

1 7:43 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for -2 yards

3 10:19 10 - 3 1st-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 9 vs. STL

1 9:31 0 - 0 1st-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 1 yards

1 8:52 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards

1 8:13 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards

Week 10 vs. SF

3 12:18 13 - 21 3rd-and-1 opp 5 rushed for 0 yards

4 14:41 23 - 24 3rd-and-5 opp 5 target of incomplete pass

Week 11 vs. SEA

3 2:39 19 - 7 2nd-and-5 opp 5 rushed for -1 yards

Week 12 vs. NYG

2 7:54 3 - 7 2nd-and-2 opp 4 rushed for 4 yards TOUCHDOWN

3 0:53 12 - 24 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 13 vs. PHI

2 3:50 0 - 21 2nd-and-3 opp 3 rushed for 2 yards

Week 14 vs. STL

1 8:48 0 - 0 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 18 vs. ATL

3 2:53 14 - 17 1st-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 4 yards TOUCHDOWN

Week 19 vs. CAR

1 2:46 0 - 7 3rd-and-3 opp 3 caught pass for 3 yards TOUCHDOWN

4 4:44 30 - 7 2nd-and-5 opp 5 rushed for 1 yards

4 4:00 30 - 7 3rd-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 2 yards

Week 21 vs. PIT

4 8:21 7 - 20 2nd-and-4 opp 4 caught pass for 3 yards

Those collective results show that he was successful more than 50% of the time IMO. What percentage of RBs do you think are successful more often than that in goal line situations?

 

[Loan Sharks]

Loan Sharks, a number of times in this thread you have said that Hightower has negative yardage in goal line situations. I don't understand what you're talking about there. Using DD, considering opportunities between opponent's five and the end zone as goal line opportunities, here are the regular season results for every RB in the league that had at least one carry:

NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT 1 LenDale White rb 2008 21 27 1.29 13 12 74.70 2 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 20 21 1.05 12 12 74.10 3 Steve Slaton rb 2008 20 10 0.50 4 4 25.00 4 Michael Turner rb 2008 19 34 1.79 12 12 75.40 5 Thomas Jones rb 2008 18 13 0.72 5 5 37.50 6 Larry Johnson rb 2008 18 5 0.28 4 4 28.70 7 LeRon McClain rb 2008 18 16 0.89 8 8 49.60 8 Tim Hightower rb 2008 18 16 0.89 9 8 49.60 9 Jamal Lewis rb 2008 18 3 0.17 4 4 24.30 10 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2008 16 22 1.38 8 7 44.20 11 Matt Forte rb 2008 15 16 1.07 6 5 44.30 12 Frank Gore rb 2008 14 17 1.21 4 4 32.10 13 Kevin Smith rb 2008 14 12 0.86 7 5 31.20 14 Ronnie Brown rb 2008 13 22 1.69 6 6 38.20 15 Marion Barber rb 2008 13 17 1.31 7 7 43.70 16 Clinton Portis rb 2008 12 22 1.83 7 7 44.20 17 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2008 12 17 1.42 7 7 50.10 18 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 12 22 1.83 8 8 56.60 19 Marshawn Lynch rb 2008 12 9 0.75 4 3 18.90 20 Brian Westbrook rb 2008 11 7 0.64 4 3 37.30 21 T.J. Duckett rb 2008 11 12 1.09 8 7 43.20 22 Dominic Rhodes rb 2008 11 11 1.00 5 5 37.20 23 Mewelde Moore rb 2008 11 13 1.18 3 3 25.50 24 Jonathan Stewart rb 2008 10 15 1.50 7 7 43.50 25 Ryan Grant rb 2008 10 9 0.90 2 2 12.90 26 Pierre Thomas rb 2008 10 22 2.20 7 6 44.40 27 Sammy Morris rb 2008 10 16 1.60 6 6 37.60 28 Willis McGahee rb 2008 10 26 2.60 6 5 32.60 29 Michael Pittman rb 2008 10 13 1.30 4 4 25.30 30 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 9 3 0.33 5 5 30.30 31 Gary Russell rb 2008 8 7 0.88 4 3 18.70 32 Justin Fargas rb 2008 8 4 0.50 1 1 6.40 33 Deuce McAllister rb 2008 8 13 1.62 5 5 31.30 34 Steven Jackson rb 2008 8 7 0.88 3 3 25.00 35 Willie Parker rb 2008 8 6 0.75 2 2 12.60 36 Joseph Addai rb 2008 7 13 1.86 3 3 19.30 37 Chester Taylor rb 2008 7 9 1.29 2 2 17.10 38 DeShaun Foster rb 2008 6 4 0.67 1 1 6.40 39 Earnest Graham rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 3 22.95 40 BenJarvus Green-Ellis rb 2008 6 11 1.83 5 4 25.10 41 Correll Buckhalter rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 2 19.20 42 Derrick Ward rb 2008 5 -6 -1.20 1 1 5.40 43 LaMont Jordan rb 2008 5 9 1.80 4 3 18.90 44 Fred Taylor rb 2008 5 9 1.80 2 1 6.90 45 Fred Jackson rb 2008 5 9 1.80 1 0 0.90 46 Edgerrin James rb 2008 5 13 2.60 3 3 19.30 47 Ahman Green rb 2008 4 7 1.75 3 3 18.70 48 Mike Karney rb 2008 4 4 1.00 2 2 12.40 49 Chris Johnson rb 2008 4 5 1.25 2 2 12.50 50 Kevin Faulk rb 2008 4 7 1.75 2 2 12.70 51 Peyton Hillis rb 2008 4 6 1.50 2 2 18.70 52 Michael Bush rb 2008 4 8 2.00 1 1 6.80 53 Ryan Torain rb 2008 3 4 1.33 1 1 6.40 54 Cedric Benson rb 2008 3 0 0.00 1 1 6.00 55 John Kuhn rb 2008 3 1 0.33 1 1 18.70 56 Cadillac Williams rb 2008 3 6 2.00 2 1 6.60 57 Ricky Williams rb 2008 3 12 4.00 3 3 19.20 58 Michael Robinson rb 2008 3 2 0.67 0 0 0.20 59 Tashard Choice rb 2008 3 4 1.33 1 1 6.40 60 Jason McKie rb 2008 3 2 0.67 2 2 12.20 61 Antonio Pittman rb 2008 3 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 62 Julius Jones rb 2008 2 6 3.00 0 0 0.60 63 Ladell Betts rb 2008 2 3 1.50 1 1 6.30 64 Xavier Omon rb 2008 2 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 65 Tony Hunt rb 2008 2 1 0.50 1 1 6.10 66 Darren McFadden rb 2008 2 2 1.00 2 2 12.20 67 Leon Washington rb 2008 2 5 2.50 1 1 6.50 68 Brandon Jackson rb 2008 2 -2 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 69 Kolby Smith rb 2008 2 0 0.00 1 1 6.00 70 Warrick Dunn rb 2008 2 -4 -2.00 0 0 -0.40 71 J.J. Arrington rb 2008 2 5 2.50 1 1 6.50 72 Chris Perry rb 2008 2 2 1.00 0 0 0.20 73 Mike Bell rb 2008 2 3 1.50 1 1 6.30 74 Lorenzo Neal rb 2008 2 1 0.50 1 0 0.10 75 Ahmad Bradshaw rb 2008 2 1 0.50 0 0 0.10 76 B.J. Askew rb 2008 2 2 1.00 2 2 12.20 77 Jacob Hester rb 2008 1 4 4.00 1 1 12.50 78 Chad Simpson rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 79 Laurence Maroney rb 2008 1 -1 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 80 Vonta Leach rb 2008 1 1 1.00 1 1 6.10 81 Travis Minor rb 2008 1 -1 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 82 Jerious Norwood rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 83 Montell Owens rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 84 Jamaal Charles rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 85 Leonard Weaver rb 2008 1 3 3.00 0 0 0.30 86 Mike Sellers rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 6.20 87 Darren Sproles rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 88 Ovie Mughelli rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 89 Ahmard Hall rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 90 Michael Bennett rb 2008 1 -2 -2.00 0 0 -0.20 91 Reggie Bush rb 2008 1 3 3.00 1 1 12.80 92 Rudi Johnson rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 93 Ryan Moats rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 94 P.J. Pope rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 95 Mike Cox rb 2008 1 -2 -2.00 0 0 -0.20 96 Selvin Young rb 2008 1 5 5.00 1 1 6.50 97 Aaron Stecker rb 2008 1 1 1.00 0 0 0.10

Maybe I'm missing something, but Hightower gained 16 yards on his carries... that's positive 16 yards, not negative 16 yards. So you seem to be misstating that point repeatedly.Aside from that, Hightower was better at the goal line than a number of good RBs, including Slaton, Jones, LJ, Lewis, Lynch, Westbrook, and Kevin Smith.Here are all of his touches in that area of the field:Week 1 vs. SF3 4:05 13 - 10 4th-and-1 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWNWeek 2 vs. MIA1 6:21 7 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for -1 yards 3 11:18 17 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards 3 10:33 17 - 0 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 4 vs. NYJ3 2:53 15 - 34 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 5 vs. BUF4 10:37 34 - 17 2nd-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 6 vs. DAL3 4:04 7 - 14 3rd-and-1 opp 5 rushed for 3 yards (first down) Week 8 vs. CAR1 7:43 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for -2 yards 3 10:19 10 - 3 1st-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 9 vs. STL1 9:31 0 - 0 1st-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 1 yards 1 8:52 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards 1 8:13 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards Week 10 vs. SF3 12:18 13 - 21 3rd-and-1 opp 5 rushed for 0 yards 4 14:41 23 - 24 3rd-and-5 opp 5 target of incomplete pass Week 11 vs. SEA3 2:39 19 - 7 2nd-and-5 opp 5 rushed for -1 yards Week 12 vs. NYG2 7:54 3 - 7 2nd-and-2 opp 4 rushed for 4 yards TOUCHDOWN 3 0:53 12 - 24 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 13 vs. PHI2 3:50 0 - 21 2nd-and-3 opp 3 rushed for 2 yards Week 14 vs. STL1 8:48 0 - 0 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 18 vs. ATL3 2:53 14 - 17 1st-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 4 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 19 vs. CAR1 2:46 0 - 7 3rd-and-3 opp 3 caught pass for 3 yards TOUCHDOWN 4 4:44 30 - 7 2nd-and-5 opp 5 rushed for 1 yards 4 4:00 30 - 7 3rd-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 2 yards Week 21 vs. PIT4 8:21 7 - 20 2nd-and-4 opp 4 caught pass for 3 yards Those collective results show that he was successful more than 50% of the time IMO. What percentage of RBs do you think are successful more often than that in goal line situations?

My fault and wrong wording on negative yardage, he has less yards than he does carries. I am thinking of it as 1 yard as the base not zero. If you want to split hairs and say Hightower was able to get .88 yards per inside the 5 you can, but that is my point .88 is not good. When you need ONE yard out of your goal line back Hightower is less likely to get it than not, that is horrible for a "Great goal line back" and it ranks him last out of the ten with the most opportunities and once I take a look at the rest of them probably worse.

 

[Tau837]

Also, consider that the Arizona OL ranked 29th in power success and 26th in stuffed percentage, which are defined as follows:

Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

Now, it isn't truly possible to separate OL and RB play, as noted by FO:

it is important to understand that these ratings only somewhat separate the offensive line from the running backs. A team with a very good running back will appear higher no matter how bad their line, and a team with a great line with appear lower if the running back is terrible.

So I'm sure many will just say it was the RBs that caused the poor stuffed percentage. However, they also say the following:

A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.

Arizona didn't have a high ranking in 10+ yard runs, but it did rank higher (25th) than it did in Adjusted Line Yards (30th), so I think that at least somewhat mitigates the idea that it was all on the RBs. Bottom line IMO is that the Arizona OL did not do its RBs any favors.

 

[Loan Sharks]

Again, I am not saying that Hightower does not have a role but there are a lot of people that think he is a great short yardage back simply because he got a lot of short yardage carries. Troy Hambrick got a lot of carries a few years ago, he wasn't very good either.

Amongst players that had 5 or more goal line attempts

4th in goal line attempts

21st (Tied) in touchdowns per goal line attempt

31st (Tied) in yardage per goal line attempt

*Lots of tries little production

*In a 32 team league there are 20 guys more likely to punch it in from the 5 than Hightower

*In a 32 team league there are 30 guys more likely to get you closer to the goal than Hightower

This all adds up to one thing Hightower is not a good goal line back.

NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT TD/ATT

1 LenDale White rb 2008 21 27 1.29 13 12 74.70 .61

2 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 20 21 1.05 12 12 74.10 .6

4 Michael Turner rb 2008 19 34 1.79 12 12 75.40 .63

7 LeRon McClain rb 2008 18 16 0.89 8 8 49.60 .44

8 Tim Hightower rb 2008 18 16 0.89 9 8 49.60 .44

10 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2008 16 22 1.38 8 7 44.20 .5

11 Matt Forte rb 2008 15 16 1.07 6 5 44.30 .33

12 Frank Gore rb 2008 14 17 1.21 4 4 32.10 .28

14 Ronnie Brown rb 2008 13 22 1.69 6 6 38.20 .46

15 Marion Barber rb 2008 13 17 1.31 7 7 43.70 .5

16 Clinton Portis rb 2008 12 22 1.83 7 7 44.20 .58

17 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2008 12 17 1.42 7 7 50.10 .58

18 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 12 22 1.83 8 8 56.60 .66

21 T.J. Duckett rb 2008 11 12 1.09 8 7 43.20 .63

22 Dominic Rhodes rb 2008 11 11 1.00 5 5 37.20 .45

23 Mewelde Moore rb 2008 11 13 1.18 3 3 25.50 .27

24 Jonathan Stewart rb 2008 10 15 1.50 7 7 43.50 .7

25 Ryan Grant rb 2008 10 9 0.90 2 2 12.90 .2

26 Pierre Thomas rb 2008 10 22 2.20 7 6 44.40 .6

27 Sammy Morris rb 2008 10 16 1.60 6 6 37.60 .6

28 Willis McGahee rb 2008 10 26 2.60 6 5 32.60 .5

29 Michael Pittman rb 2008 10 13 1.30 4 4 25.30 .4

33 Deuce McAllister rb 2008 8 13 1.62 5 5 31.30 .62

36 Joseph Addai rb 2008 7 13 1.86 3 3 19.30 .42

37 Chester Taylor rb 2008 7 9 1.29 2 2 17.10 .28

39 Earnest Graham rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 3 22.95 .5

40 BenJarvus Green-Ellis rb 2008 6 11 1.83 5 4 25.10 .66

41 Correll Buckhalter rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 2 19.20 .33

43 LaMont Jordan rb 2008 5 9 1.80 4 3 18.90 .6

44 Fred Taylor rb 2008 5 9 1.80 2 1 6.90 .2

 

[kutta]

Again, I am not saying that Hightower does not have a role but there are a lot of people that think he is a great short yardage back simply because he got a lot of short yardage carries. Troy Hambrick got a lot of carries a few years ago, he wasn't very good either. Amongst players that had 5 or more goal line attempts4th in goal line attempts21st (Tied) in touchdowns per goal line attempt31st (Tied) in yardage per goal line attempt*Lots of tries little production*In a 32 team league there are 20 guys more likely to punch it in from the 5 than Hightower*In a 32 team league there are 30 guys more likely to get you closer to the goal than Hightower This all adds up to one thing Hightower is not a good goal line back.NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT TD/ATT1 LenDale White rb 2008 21 27 1.29 13 12 74.70 .612 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 20 21 1.05 12 12 74.10 .64 Michael Turner rb 2008 19 34 1.79 12 12 75.40 .637 LeRon McClain rb 2008 18 16 0.89 8 8 49.60 .448 Tim Hightower rb 2008 18 16 0.89 9 8 49.60 .4410 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2008 16 22 1.38 8 7 44.20 .511 Matt Forte rb 2008 15 16 1.07 6 5 44.30 .3312 Frank Gore rb 2008 14 17 1.21 4 4 32.10 .2814 Ronnie Brown rb 2008 13 22 1.69 6 6 38.20 .4615 Marion Barber rb 2008 13 17 1.31 7 7 43.70 .516 Clinton Portis rb 2008 12 22 1.83 7 7 44.20 .5817 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2008 12 17 1.42 7 7 50.10 .5818 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 12 22 1.83 8 8 56.60 .6621 T.J. Duckett rb 2008 11 12 1.09 8 7 43.20 .6322 Dominic Rhodes rb 2008 11 11 1.00 5 5 37.20 .4523 Mewelde Moore rb 2008 11 13 1.18 3 3 25.50 .2724 Jonathan Stewart rb 2008 10 15 1.50 7 7 43.50 .725 Ryan Grant rb 2008 10 9 0.90 2 2 12.90 .226 Pierre Thomas rb 2008 10 22 2.20 7 6 44.40 .627 Sammy Morris rb 2008 10 16 1.60 6 6 37.60 .628 Willis McGahee rb 2008 10 26 2.60 6 5 32.60 .529 Michael Pittman rb 2008 10 13 1.30 4 4 25.30 .433 Deuce McAllister rb 2008 8 13 1.62 5 5 31.30 .6236 Joseph Addai rb 2008 7 13 1.86 3 3 19.30 .4237 Chester Taylor rb 2008 7 9 1.29 2 2 17.10 .2839 Earnest Graham rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 3 22.95 .540 BenJarvus Green-Ellis rb 2008 6 11 1.83 5 4 25.10 .6641 Correll Buckhalter rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 2 19.20 .3343 LaMont Jordan rb 2008 5 9 1.80 4 3 18.90 .644 Fred Taylor rb 2008 5 9 1.80 2 1 6.90 .2

There are 10 other guys on the field. I don't think you have the expertise or knowledge to make the judgment on who is a good goal line back and who isn't just by looking at the stats. I was using stats to show that Hightower got a lot of opportunities, and that I think that will continue next year. It is virtually impossible to look at the stats and determine who, with all else being equal, are the "good" goal line backs and who are the "bad." What we do know is that the coaches trusted Hightower as a rookie to be the goal line and short yardage guy. I trust their judgment over mine or yours.

 

[Tau837]

The last news at Rotoworld is from Monday (8/10):

Tim Hightower-RB- Cardinals Aug. 10 - 12:15 pm etTim Hightower, who remains atop the Cardinals' depth chart at tailback, has reportedly shown improvement on his rookie year during camp.It's easier said than done (see Laurence Maroney), but all Hightower needs to do is stop dancing. He's already a major asset on third downs as a pass catcher and protector, and packs serious pop between the tackles when he runs downhill with good pad level. Beat writer Darren Urban says Hightower is "stretching the distance" between him and Chris Wells on the depth chart.Source: azcardinals.com

The announcers in tonight's game are giving him a lot of praise right now. One announcer just said that watching Hightower run is like going to an AC/DC concert... headbanger's ball. LOL.

 

[SammyJankis]

Game. Set. Match. Loan sharks I do believe "you've been served."

Loan Sharks, a number of times in this thread you have said that Hightower has negative yardage in goal line situations. I don't understand what you're talking about there. Using DD, considering opportunities between opponent's five and the end zone as goal line opportunities, here are the regular season results for every RB in the league that had at least one carry:

NAME POS YR RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT 1 LenDale White rb 2008 21 27 1.29 13 12 74.70 2 Brandon Jacobs rb 2008 20 21 1.05 12 12 74.10 3 Steve Slaton rb 2008 20 10 0.50 4 4 25.00 4 Michael Turner rb 2008 19 34 1.79 12 12 75.40 5 Thomas Jones rb 2008 18 13 0.72 5 5 37.50 6 Larry Johnson rb 2008 18 5 0.28 4 4 28.70 7 LeRon McClain rb 2008 18 16 0.89 8 8 49.60 8 Tim Hightower rb 2008 18 16 0.89 9 8 49.60 9 Jamal Lewis rb 2008 18 3 0.17 4 4 24.30 10 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2008 16 22 1.38 8 7 44.20 11 Matt Forte rb 2008 15 16 1.07 6 5 44.30 12 Frank Gore rb 2008 14 17 1.21 4 4 32.10 13 Kevin Smith rb 2008 14 12 0.86 7 5 31.20 14 Ronnie Brown rb 2008 13 22 1.69 6 6 38.20 15 Marion Barber rb 2008 13 17 1.31 7 7 43.70 16 Clinton Portis rb 2008 12 22 1.83 7 7 44.20 17 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2008 12 17 1.42 7 7 50.10 18 DeAngelo Williams rb 2008 12 22 1.83 8 8 56.60 19 Marshawn Lynch rb 2008 12 9 0.75 4 3 18.90 20 Brian Westbrook rb 2008 11 7 0.64 4 3 37.30 21 T.J. Duckett rb 2008 11 12 1.09 8 7 43.20 22 Dominic Rhodes rb 2008 11 11 1.00 5 5 37.20 23 Mewelde Moore rb 2008 11 13 1.18 3 3 25.50 24 Jonathan Stewart rb 2008 10 15 1.50 7 7 43.50 25 Ryan Grant rb 2008 10 9 0.90 2 2 12.90 26 Pierre Thomas rb 2008 10 22 2.20 7 6 44.40 27 Sammy Morris rb 2008 10 16 1.60 6 6 37.60 28 Willis McGahee rb 2008 10 26 2.60 6 5 32.60 29 Michael Pittman rb 2008 10 13 1.30 4 4 25.30 30 Adrian Peterson rb 2008 9 3 0.33 5 5 30.30 31 Gary Russell rb 2008 8 7 0.88 4 3 18.70 32 Justin Fargas rb 2008 8 4 0.50 1 1 6.40 33 Deuce McAllister rb 2008 8 13 1.62 5 5 31.30 34 Steven Jackson rb 2008 8 7 0.88 3 3 25.00 35 Willie Parker rb 2008 8 6 0.75 2 2 12.60 36 Joseph Addai rb 2008 7 13 1.86 3 3 19.30 37 Chester Taylor rb 2008 7 9 1.29 2 2 17.10 38 DeShaun Foster rb 2008 6 4 0.67 1 1 6.40 39 Earnest Graham rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 3 22.95 40 BenJarvus Green-Ellis rb 2008 6 11 1.83 5 4 25.10 41 Correll Buckhalter rb 2008 6 8 1.33 3 2 19.20 42 Derrick Ward rb 2008 5 -6 -1.20 1 1 5.40 43 LaMont Jordan rb 2008 5 9 1.80 4 3 18.90 44 Fred Taylor rb 2008 5 9 1.80 2 1 6.90 45 Fred Jackson rb 2008 5 9 1.80 1 0 0.90 46 Edgerrin James rb 2008 5 13 2.60 3 3 19.30 47 Ahman Green rb 2008 4 7 1.75 3 3 18.70 48 Mike Karney rb 2008 4 4 1.00 2 2 12.40 49 Chris Johnson rb 2008 4 5 1.25 2 2 12.50 50 Kevin Faulk rb 2008 4 7 1.75 2 2 12.70 51 Peyton Hillis rb 2008 4 6 1.50 2 2 18.70 52 Michael Bush rb 2008 4 8 2.00 1 1 6.80 53 Ryan Torain rb 2008 3 4 1.33 1 1 6.40 54 Cedric Benson rb 2008 3 0 0.00 1 1 6.00 55 John Kuhn rb 2008 3 1 0.33 1 1 18.70 56 Cadillac Williams rb 2008 3 6 2.00 2 1 6.60 57 Ricky Williams rb 2008 3 12 4.00 3 3 19.20 58 Michael Robinson rb 2008 3 2 0.67 0 0 0.20 59 Tashard Choice rb 2008 3 4 1.33 1 1 6.40 60 Jason McKie rb 2008 3 2 0.67 2 2 12.20 61 Antonio Pittman rb 2008 3 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 62 Julius Jones rb 2008 2 6 3.00 0 0 0.60 63 Ladell Betts rb 2008 2 3 1.50 1 1 6.30 64 Xavier Omon rb 2008 2 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 65 Tony Hunt rb 2008 2 1 0.50 1 1 6.10 66 Darren McFadden rb 2008 2 2 1.00 2 2 12.20 67 Leon Washington rb 2008 2 5 2.50 1 1 6.50 68 Brandon Jackson rb 2008 2 -2 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 69 Kolby Smith rb 2008 2 0 0.00 1 1 6.00 70 Warrick Dunn rb 2008 2 -4 -2.00 0 0 -0.40 71 J.J. Arrington rb 2008 2 5 2.50 1 1 6.50 72 Chris Perry rb 2008 2 2 1.00 0 0 0.20 73 Mike Bell rb 2008 2 3 1.50 1 1 6.30 74 Lorenzo Neal rb 2008 2 1 0.50 1 0 0.10 75 Ahmad Bradshaw rb 2008 2 1 0.50 0 0 0.10 76 B.J. Askew rb 2008 2 2 1.00 2 2 12.20 77 Jacob Hester rb 2008 1 4 4.00 1 1 12.50 78 Chad Simpson rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 79 Laurence Maroney rb 2008 1 -1 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 80 Vonta Leach rb 2008 1 1 1.00 1 1 6.10 81 Travis Minor rb 2008 1 -1 -1.00 0 0 -0.10 82 Jerious Norwood rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 83 Montell Owens rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 84 Jamaal Charles rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 85 Leonard Weaver rb 2008 1 3 3.00 0 0 0.30 86 Mike Sellers rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 6.20 87 Darren Sproles rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 88 Ovie Mughelli rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 89 Ahmard Hall rb 2008 1 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 90 Michael Bennett rb 2008 1 -2 -2.00 0 0 -0.20 91 Reggie Bush rb 2008 1 3 3.00 1 1 12.80 92 Rudi Johnson rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 93 Ryan Moats rb 2008 1 2 2.00 1 1 6.20 94 P.J. Pope rb 2008 1 2 2.00 0 0 0.20 95 Mike Cox rb 2008 1 -2 -2.00 0 0 -0.20 96 Selvin Young rb 2008 1 5 5.00 1 1 6.50 97 Aaron Stecker rb 2008 1 1 1.00 0 0 0.10

Maybe I'm missing something, but Hightower gained 16 yards on his carries... that's positive 16 yards, not negative 16 yards. So you seem to be misstating that point repeatedly.Aside from that, Hightower was better at the goal line than a number of good RBs, including Slaton, Jones, LJ, Lewis, Lynch, Westbrook, and Kevin Smith.Here are all of his touches in that area of the field:Week 1 vs. SF3 4:05 13 - 10 4th-and-1 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWNWeek 2 vs. MIA1 6:21 7 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for -1 yards 3 11:18 17 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards 3 10:33 17 - 0 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 4 vs. NYJ3 2:53 15 - 34 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 5 vs. BUF4 10:37 34 - 17 2nd-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 6 vs. DAL3 4:04 7 - 14 3rd-and-1 opp 5 rushed for 3 yards (first down) Week 8 vs. CAR1 7:43 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for -2 yards 3 10:19 10 - 3 1st-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 2 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 9 vs. STL1 9:31 0 - 0 1st-and-2 opp 2 rushed for 1 yards 1 8:52 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards 1 8:13 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 0 yards Week 10 vs. SF3 12:18 13 - 21 3rd-and-1 opp 5 rushed for 0 yards 4 14:41 23 - 24 3rd-and-5 opp 5 target of incomplete pass Week 11 vs. SEA3 2:39 19 - 7 2nd-and-5 opp 5 rushed for -1 yards Week 12 vs. NYG2 7:54 3 - 7 2nd-and-2 opp 4 rushed for 4 yards TOUCHDOWN 3 0:53 12 - 24 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 13 vs. PHI2 3:50 0 - 21 2nd-and-3 opp 3 rushed for 2 yards Week 14 vs. STL1 8:48 0 - 0 1st-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 18 vs. ATL3 2:53 14 - 17 1st-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 4 yards TOUCHDOWN Week 19 vs. CAR1 2:46 0 - 7 3rd-and-3 opp 3 caught pass for 3 yards TOUCHDOWN 4 4:44 30 - 7 2nd-and-5 opp 5 rushed for 1 yards 4 4:00 30 - 7 3rd-and-4 opp 4 rushed for 2 yards Week 21 vs. PIT4 8:21 7 - 20 2nd-and-4 opp 4 caught pass for 3 yards Those collective results show that he was successful more than 50% of the time IMO. What percentage of RBs do you think are successful more often than that in goal line situations?