'LawFitz said:
I don't think people are "hating" on him. But when you compare the risk to other top 10 RBs, there is greater risk than some of the others.
1) He plays for the Raiders. Personally, I am not optimistic about the Raider's offense in 2011. They have one of the worst group of recievers and they lost a key offensive lineman and TE. New coaching staff that has had little time to work with team.
2) In this already shortened off season, McFadden has missed more time to work with team because of the injury. I don't think anyone thinks the orbital injury is going to affect his play--but it has meant that he is on the sidelines while the team installs a new offense.
3) He has had one great, but again, incoomplete season, and two poor seasons. Which one will he have this season? Was last year his ceiling or his break out year? While there is reason to be optimistic about his talent based on last year, why would I take him over a guy who has put up multiple years of top production?
4) Injury risk. It isn't just that he has been injured each of his years in the NFL so far, but minor injuries seem to sideline him. He can't play injured and be productive.
5) How many goal line TDs will Bush vulture?
I DO like him in PPR. I think he will get a ton of receptions because I don't think Oakland has too many legit receivers and I question the QB's ability to get the ball downfield to the open man consistently. But in standard scoring I wouldn't want him as my RB1. In PPR, I would be happy to get him near the end of the first round and then handcuff with Bush.
1. The WRs are not nearly as bad as you think. Ford, Murphy, Schilens, Moore are better than a lot of NFL WR corps. And that's assuming nothing from DHB. Gallery and Miller are far from irreplaceable.2. The are not installing a new offense. They're using Hue's offense from last season and adding new wrinkles from Al Saunders who has run the same offense for the last three decades.
3. This is the snake bitten analysis. I guess some wounds take longer than others to heal.
4. I agree with this, though the presence of Bush will mitigate on multiple levels.
5. DMC was at his best when he and Bush were playing last season. One is a transcendent talent. The other is simply good. And the coaches know it.
Have to disagree slightly LawFitz.
[*]
I think the loss of Gallery will hurt more than you think. He has played fairly solid for them and IMO his loss will be felt.
[*]In regards to the WR squad, I am a believer that they will have a lot of looks, as the OAK defense took a huge blow with the loss of Asomogh. They are going to have to throw, which makes the receivers more valuable. What hurts is that Miller has consistently been the "go-to" WR. Now we have a new TE, some more rookies, and a shortened training camp. Those factors do not bode well for a good season. So if they are out of it early, they have to throw which is a plus for DMC, but will hurt him from a pure rushing standpoint.
[*]Agreed with Michael Bush statements. Bush is the TD vulture here. He played well with DMC and I don't really see any change in that setup.
[*]DMC had a fantastic year last year. I drafted him late as I saw great potential as he has been written off over the last few years. But let's be honest, to think opposing defenses aren't going to game plan for this guy is ridiculous. They are going to plan for DMC and with the loss of Gallery, some new WRs who will make some basic mistakes, means DMC is not going to have a lot of holes.
So do I like DMC. Sure, he's an explosive runner. Is he worth a first rd or 2nd round pick? IMO, no way. I think he is overvalued. Just too many risk and concerns with the OAK Offense. Maybe I'm wrong, and then so be it, but I'm not touching him in the first round and I'd consider late second, but I am sure most people will overreach and take that decision away.