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What's your QB/TE draft strategy? (1 Viewer)

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I'm lumping the two together because I think one tends to affect the other. For example, if you take Kelce in the first you're probably less likely to reach for an elite QB a couple rounds later. At the other end, especially in short bench leagues I prefer to only punt one of the two positions. If I'm going to take two late-round TEs I want at least some certainty at QB, and vice versa.

Here are a couple of strategies I've been playing around with in my mocks. Curious to see what others are doing.

[Obligatory caveat here that I of course recognize that in YOUR league, every owner is a super shark and none of these guys will be available at the rounds I'm discussing. And of course, it's entirely possible that they won't be in my actual leagues as well. I'm just going off what I'm seeing across a range of different mocks (both live and simulators), which is all I really have to go on.]

  1. Top 3 TE, punt on QB. I'm really not sure I would take Kelce in the first; maybe if he makes it to 8 or 9 and the elite RBs + Davante/Tyreek are gone. I could definitely see going Waller/Kittle (in that order) in the third. If I do that, I'm really going to try to wait on QB. I mean, maybe if I feel really good about my early RBs/WRs and I can get Wilson or Rodgers in the 6th, but more likely I would wait another couple rounds and shop in the Hurts/Brady/Stafford/Tannehill aisle. I'd prefer not to go below Tanny for my QB1; then you're looking at Ryan, Cousins and Baker. (Maybe at that point I would just say #### it and wait for Fitz.) WIth any of those guys I just mentioned, I would want to take a late-round flier on an upside QB. I'm intrigued by the two running rookies (Fields/Lance), but I actually think Tua might have the highest ceiling. Plus, we'll probably know within a week or two if he's back to his Alabama form, whereas the rookies would need to be stashed.
  2. TE 4-6, QB 5-7. Hat-tip to @Hot Sauce Guy, who started a whole thread on the TE 4-6 range. I've found that in mocks where I can get Hock/Andrews in the 4th, I really like my team (maybe Pitts, too, though that feels like way too early for a rookie). And while real drafts always end up confounding expectations, I think there's a reasonable chance that they'll be available in that round. As an added bonus, usually in those cases I feel comfortable enough with my RBs/WRs to take that second tier QB like Rodgers or Wilson in the 6th (maybe Herbert, although I think at that point I'd probably be more inclined to wait on QB). The more I think about it, what I like the most about this strategy is that, once I get the TE, I have more flexibility in terms of what I do at QB. Only thing that gives me pause is that, historically, that range has usually ended up being the TE graveyard (think OJ Howard, Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper in recent years).
  3. Punt on TE, QB 5-7. If I get snaked on those TEs, it won't be a great feeling. First of all, it will become more important that I get a solid, set-it-and-forget-it QB. Again, I'd probably be looking for the likes of Wilson or Rodgers (maybe Dak, but he's generally going before them and I"m not as high on him). Then for TE I'll wait and give Andrew Cooper's "Yin & Yang TE strategy" a whirl. For the Yins, I would target LThomas or Fant, maybe Jarwin or Ebron if I got snaked. For the Yangs, I'd be looking at Henry, Engram (if he's healthy), maybe JSmith. And of course there's also the glory play of Juwan Johnson in the last round, which I find strangely intriguing.


Anyway, that's where I am as of now. I'm sure my strategy will continue to evolve over the next week. Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot, or what you would do differently, or how my entire premise is off base. Also, do you have a relatively consistent approach across all your leagues, or do you try different things either depending on format or just to diversify your strategy?

 

finfansteve

Footballguy
I’ll always take a tight end I consider an advantage over a qb but if mahomes is sitting there and I’m looking at hockenson or andrews I’ll take mahomes in that case. But give me the advantage tight end every time over a qb 

 

Blackbear

Footballguy
I'm lumping the two together because I think one tends to affect the other. For example, if you take Kelce in the first you're probably less likely to reach for an elite QB a couple rounds later. At the other end, especially in short bench leagues I prefer to only punt one of the two positions. If I'm going to take two late-round TEs I want at least some certainty at QB, and vice versa.

Here are a couple of strategies I've been playing around with in my mocks. Curious to see what others are doing.

[Obligatory caveat here that I of course recognize that in YOUR league, every owner is a super shark and none of these guys will be available at the rounds I'm discussing. And of course, it's entirely possible that they won't be in my actual leagues as well. I'm just going off what I'm seeing across a range of different mocks (both live and simulators), which is all I really have to go on.]

  1. Top 3 TE, punt on QB. I'm really not sure I would take Kelce in the first; maybe if he makes it to 8 or 9 and the elite RBs + Davante/Tyreek are gone. I could definitely see going Waller/Kittle (in that order) in the third. If I do that, I'm really going to try to wait on QB. I mean, maybe if I feel really good about my early RBs/WRs and I can get Wilson or Rodgers in the 6th, but more likely I would wait another couple rounds and shop in the Hurts/Brady/Stafford/Tannehill aisle. I'd prefer not to go below Tanny for my QB1; then you're looking at Ryan, Cousins and Baker. (Maybe at that point I would just say #### it and wait for Fitz.) WIth any of those guys I just mentioned, I would want to take a late-round flier on an upside QB. I'm intrigued by the two running rookies (Fields/Lance), but I actually think Tua might have the highest ceiling. Plus, we'll probably know within a week or two if he's back to his Alabama form, whereas the rookies would need to be stashed.
  2. TE 4-6, QB 5-7. Hat-tip to @Hot Sauce Guy, who started a whole thread on the TE 4-6 range. I've found that in mocks where I can get Hock/Andrews in the 4th, I really like my team (maybe Pitts, too, though that feels like way too early for a rookie). And while real drafts always end up confounding expectations, I think there's a reasonable chance that they'll be available in that round. As an added bonus, usually in those cases I feel comfortable enough with my RBs/WRs to take that second tier QB like Rodgers or Wilson in the 6th (maybe Herbert, although I think at that point I'd probably be more inclined to wait on QB). The more I think about it, what I like the most about this strategy is that, once I get the TE, I have more flexibility in terms of what I do at QB. Only thing that gives me pause is that, historically, that range has usually ended up being the TE graveyard (think OJ Howard, Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper in recent years).
  3. Punt on TE, QB 5-7. If I get snaked on those TEs, it won't be a great feeling. First of all, it will become more important that I get a solid, set-it-and-forget-it QB. Again, I'd probably be looking for the likes of Wilson or Rodgers (maybe Dak, but he's generally going before them and I"m not as high on him). Then for TE I'll wait and give Andrew Cooper's "Yin & Yang TE strategy" a whirl. For the Yins, I would target LThomas or Fant, maybe Jarwin or Ebron if I got snaked. For the Yangs, I'd be looking at Henry, Engram (if he's healthy), maybe JSmith. And of course there's also the glory play of Juwan Johnson in the last round, which I find strangely intriguing.


Anyway, that's where I am as of now. I'm sure my strategy will continue to evolve over the next week. Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot, or what you would do differently, or how my entire premise is off base. Also, do you have a relatively consistent approach across all your leagues, or do you try different things either depending on format or just to diversify your strategy?
It is ver dependent on league settings. 2 QB or SF. TE premium. Etc…

 

greyhorse

Footballguy
You got to commit to either:

Top TE and then value QB

Top QB and then athletic high upside TE you can find in the later rounds

But you can't go for a top QB and also a top TE.  Too many holes in your roster if you do so.

With the top 7 or 8 QBs being easily playable, I would go with a top TE if I found myself in that position.

 
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ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
It is ver dependent on league settings. 2 QB or SF. TE premium. Etc…
Yes, good point. I should have said that all of my leagues are 1QB/1TE, no TE premiums. I've never played in any other kind of league so I really can't say how that would impact my strategy. At least two of my leagues allow a TE flex (one WR/TE, one RB/WR/TE), so in those leagues I would probably be slightly more inclined to draft two of them, but that's not a major factor. My goal is to settle on a single TE and figure out pretty quickly if the late-round guys are worth holding onto.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
It is ver dependent on league settings. 2 QB or SF. TE premium. Etc…
This. Also if you can flex a TE in premium I’m far more likely to take a stud TE early.  Usually the flexed TE doesn’t quite beat a WR in the flex or a RB if you hit on one later, but having the option especially during bye weeks is nice.  

there is  far more QB depth in standard leagues / more than 12 QBs I feel okay starting, while there are only 2 or 3 TEs which give an advantage. 

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
This may not help your specific situation, but its food for thought.

The majority of the leagues I am in are start 2RBs, 3WRs/TE/NO FLEX.   Its basically standard scoring, so unless you get a top 4 ish TE, they are mostly just the same.

My plan on my drafts is to go off WR-WR, then get a strong value WR3 like Jerry Jeudy later.   I feel like I can BEAT MY LEAGUE at WR, then start getting RB2 -ish guys in rounds 3-5.  As the year progresses, RBs emerge through injury and other performance reasons. Hit on one of those and you have a playoff run.

So where does that leave me on TE?    I *MIGHT* snag Pitts in the 4th, but I will likely get Jonnu Smith very late, or someone similar.

 QB - depending on whats out there in rounds 5-6 I might just end up with Herbert everywhere.   He looked great at times last year and their offense should be firing on all cylinders for a change, with better play calling to boot.

 TZM

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I generally play it differently with each draft based on how it plays out in terms of value and tier vs. what RB and WRs are on the board. 

 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
In both redrafts I did I found myself inadvertently missing out on the top 6 tes (Hock was sniped from me when I was going to pick him one of the times) leaving me with my upside te (Everett) and I ended up with Dak in one league* and Herbert in the other*.

*should have added this originally

 
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Blackbear

Footballguy
In both redrafts I did I found myself inadvertently missing out on the top 6 tes (Hock was sniped from me when I was going to pick him one of the times) leaving me with my upside te (Everett) and I ended up with Dak and Herbert at qb.
You will be able to trade one QB for premium TE for your TE and a decent backup QB. Unless it is a one QB league.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Had the 6 hole tonight...

Waited at QB until the 7th-8th round and paired Brady with Tannehill, felt pretty good about finding a starter most weeks. I like to go QB-QB somewhere around the 7th-8th or 8th-9th, some teams ended up with odd combos that might give them a little trouble. We also had QB I felt should have been drafted...Cousins and there were a coupe others, we only saw about 20 drafted.  

At TE I did bite the bullet in the 3rd and took Kittle but I feel like he should bounce back this season, the other 2 were long gone and I felt like a tier shift was about to happen. 

My weak spot as is the case for so many is going to be my RB2-RB3/FLex-RB area, just not a lot to pick from when I wasn't finding good value at other spots. I ended up with Williams-Sermon/Drake as my platoon at RB2 for now. 

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
In both redrafts I did I found myself inadvertently missing out on the top 6 tes (Hock was sniped from me when I was going to pick him one of the times) leaving me with my upside te (Everett) and I ended up with Dak and Herbert at qb.


I mostly roll out "garbage TEs" also, so not getting a top 5 guy doesn't bother me a lot.

One thing I usually never do is roster 2 "premier" QBs. Our bench spots are too valuable (only 6 or 7 in my leagues) so I generally only get one. If he gets hurt then I can stream, there is always something on the wire serviceable.

If I had DAK AND HERBERT on any team, I would immediately flip Dak for a RB1 to a Dak believer, even if I had to wait for 1-2 big weeks..... use Herbert who is easily a top 10 guy with BIG upside.

My next order of business would be to go to the store and get some polish.

 TO SHINE UP THE TROPHY YOU ARE GONNA WIN AT THE END OF THE SEASON .  

TZM

 

brainee

Footballguy
I'm lumping the two together because I think one tends to affect the other. For example, if you take


Kelce


in the first you're probably less likely to reach for an elite QB a couple rounds later. At the other end, especially in short bench leagues I prefer to only punt one of the two positions. If I'm going to take two late-round TEs I want at least some certainty at QB, and vice versa.

Here are a couple of strategies I've been playing around with in my mocks. Curious to see what others are doing.

[Obligatory caveat here that I of course recognize that in YOUR league, every owner is a super shark and none of these guys will be available at the rounds I'm discussing. And of course, it's entirely possible that they won't be in my actual leagues as well. I'm just going off what I'm seeing across a range of different mocks (both live and simulators), which is all I really have to go on.]

  1. Top 3 TE, punt on QB . I'm really not sure I would take Kelce in the first; maybe if he makes it to 8 or 9 and the elite RBs + Davante/Tyreek are gone. I could definitely see going Waller/Kittle (in that order) in the third. If I do that, I'm really going to try to wait on QB. I mean, maybe if I feel really good about my early RBs/WRs and I can get Wilson or Rodgers in the 6th, but more likely I would wait another couple rounds and shop in the Hurts/Brady/

    Stafford/Tannehill aisle. I'd prefer not to go below Tanny for my QB1; then you're looking at Ryan, Cousinsand Baker. (Maybe at that point I would just say #### it and wait for Fitz.) WIth any of those guys I just mentioned, I would want to take a late-round flier on an upside QB. I'm intrigued by the two running rookies ( Fields/ Lance), but I actually think Tua might have the highest ceiling. Plus, we'll probably know within a week or two if he's back to his Alabama form, whereas the rookies would need to be stashed.


I had my first draft last night, and it played out exactly like your #1 scenario. I wasn't planning on taking Kelce, but he fell to me at 2.03. And for the next 5 rounds, I just felt better about taking RBs and WRs instead of getting a higher end QB. And a couple rounds after that, I drafted Tannehill.

I think all of your scenarios sound like reasonable ways to draft. It really depends on how the draft unfolds. I suppose a 4th option is punt on both QB and TE and build up a monster roster at RB and WR. I've done that in the past. Didn't plan on drafting that way, but sometimes the value you can draft is just too high to pass up (even if you're taking bench spots at RB and WR before picking your starting QB and TE).

It also depends a little on the league. In "friends and family" leagues with more casual players, I'm more likely to go with the name stud TEs and QBs (since I have confidence in my ability to get a lot of emerging guys at the other positions). That would be risky in a shark league though.

 
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ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
One thing I usually never do is roster 2 "premier" QBs. Our bench spots are too valuable (only 6 or 7 in my leagues) so I generally only get one. If he gets hurt then I can stream, there is always something on the wire serviceable.
I also try to avoid that (as mentioned, I've never played in 2QB/superflex). Last year I inadvertently stumbled into it, and it sucked. I initially drafted Rodgers and Cam fairly late, figuring one would hit. And in the first couple weeks, it looked like both would, though it eventually became apparent that Cam was a mirage. The thing is, Rodgers had an early bye (Week 4), and Cam happened to have Covid that week, so I had to pick someone up off the WW, which got me ... Herbert. As soon as it became clear he was a stud, I desperately tried to trade him, particularly because I was so weak at TE, but I just couldn't find any takers (it's not a heavy trading league). So he basically clogged up my roster for the rest of the season, not bad enough to drop but not good enough to start over Rodgers.

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
I also try to avoid that (as mentioned, I've never played in 2QB/superflex). Last year I inadvertently stumbled into it, and it sucked. I initially drafted Rodgers and Cam fairly late, figuring one would hit. And in the first couple weeks, it looked like both would, though it eventually became apparent that Cam was a mirage. The thing is, Rodgers had an early bye (Week 4), and Cam happened to have Covid that week, so I had to pick someone up off the WW, which got me ... Herbert. As soon as it became clear he was a stud, I desperately tried to trade him, particularly because I was so weak at TE, but I just couldn't find any takers (it's not a heavy trading league). So he basically clogged up my roster for the rest of the season, not bad enough to drop but not good enough to start over Rodgers.


 That was easy, cut Cam and rejoice.   :lol:

That said, most of my leagues are NOT very trade oriented. In fact most leagues I am in, usually only have 3-4 deals a year, AT MAX.    They are so rare, people are constantly yapping about collusion and wondering if anything is going on.

So I definitely understand the no trade/dead trade leagues.    In fact, its what I prefer.    Trades can bail out the people that draft horribly.

 TZM

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I suppose a 4th option is punt on both QB and TE and build up a monster roster at RB and WR. I've done that in the past. Didn't plan on drafting that way, but sometimes the value you can draft is just too high to pass up (even if you're taking bench spots at RB and WR before picking your starting QB and TE).
Yes, that is an option. I'm realizing I just don't really want to punt at TE unless I'm forced to. I did it last year in one league and got totally screwed (I ended up drafting Ian Thomas and spent the whole year cycling through TE2s and always starting the wrong guy). On the other hand, in previous years I was able to hit on late-round TEs like Waller, Andrews, Kittle  and Ertz in their respective breakout years. But it does seem like the position has stabilized in the past couple years and we're not seeing the breakouts as much. No one really made the leap last year unless you count Tonyan, which I don't.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
This was the zen I was coming to right before my draft. 

Something always has to give. You are always sacrificing tiers with every selection. Eventually the elites at various positions dry up. So it's about positional rarity, the dropoff between tiers,  your tolerance for risk, & your comfort level with/ability to identify value QBs in the later rounds. 

When I finally decided I'd invest in a premium TE, I started mocking. And the more I mocked, the more resigned I became to settling for one of the last 3 starting (in my league) QBs drafted. I had them ranked Stafford -> Tannehill -> Hurts.  

Someone reached for Hurts. Someone drafted Tannehill. I took Stafford at the end of the next round. 

I love his upside, and believe he could finish top 6 as a Ram. I don't think he finishes worse than 8th, which isn't awesome, but it's serviceable week to week.  And I find my team is deeper at RB/WR than the teams that took both elite TE/QB. They have glaring weaknesses at WR, RB and shakier benches. I found they also tended to reach more for marginal receivers & RBs earlier because they started to panic a little. 

By planning to not take an elite QB, I never panicked - just wanted for the right round. 

I've also done this strategy & missed on my targets. That's ok - there are 3-4 QBs on the FA list that I could stream if worst came to worst. Fortunately it didn't bun me this year.  yet. ;)  

 
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wgoldsph

Footballguy
You will be able to trade one QB for premium TE for your TE and a decent backup QB. Unless it is a one QB league.


I mostly roll out "garbage TEs" also, so not getting a top 5 guy doesn't bother me a lot.

One thing I usually never do is roster 2 "premier" QBs. Our bench spots are too valuable (only 6 or 7 in my leagues) so I generally only get one. If he gets hurt then I can stream, there is always something on the wire serviceable.

If I had DAK AND HERBERT on any team, I would immediately flip Dak for a RB1 to a Dak believer, even if I had to wait for 1-2 big weeks..... use Herbert who is easily a top 10 guy with BIG upside.

My next order of business would be to go to the store and get some polish.

 TO SHINE UP THE TROPHY YOU ARE GONNA WIN AT THE END OF THE SEASON .  

TZM
I apologize I meant that I drafted Dak in one of the ladies and Herbert in the other.  Not that I drafted them both. Will make an edit.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Something always has to give. You are always sacrificing tiers with every selection. Eventually the elites at various positions dry up. So it's about positional rarity, the dropoff between tiers,  your tolerance for risk, & your comfort level with/ability to identify value QBs in the later rounds.  
As my dad always told me, you can have anything you want. You just can't have everything you want.

 

dkp993

Footballguy
It is ver dependent on league settings. 2 QB or SF. TE premium. Etc…
Yes, good point. I should have said that all of my leagues are 1QB/1TE, no TE premiums. I've never played in any other kind of league so I really can't say how that would impact my strategy. At least two of my leagues allow a TE flex (one WR/TE, one RB/WR/TE), so in those leagues I would probably be slightly more inclined to draft two of them, but that's not a major factor. My goal is to settle on a single TE and figure out pretty quickly if the late-round guys are worth holding onto.
My favorite team this year of all my best all FFPC leagues (TE premium) had me taking Kelce with the 3rd overall and getting K. Murray in the 4th.  

 

Blackbear

Footballguy
My favorite team this year of all my best all FFPC leagues (TE premium) had me taking Kelce with the 3rd overall and getting K. Murray in the 4th.  
You study ppg upside. Good on you. Though you may have waited a bit. But I can’t fault this. 🙂

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
You got to commit to either:

Top TE and then value QB

Top QB and then athletic high upside TE you can find in the later rounds

But you can't go for a top QB and also a top TE.  Too many holes in your roster if you do so.

With the top 7 or 8 QBs being easily playable, I would go with a top TE if I found myself in that position.
true. go top TE, and fill out more of your roster, wait a few rounds, and snag Tannehill, Zach Wilson, T. lawrence, Matthew Stafford, etc.

I look at it like this, in a 10 or 12 team league, you're only missing out on the top 9-11 QBs ( because you haven't selected one yet). so you're getting QB10, or QB12. I'll take that every day of the week. 

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
My favorite team this year of all my best all FFPC leagues (TE premium) had me taking Kelce with the 3rd overall and getting K. Murray in the 4th.  
Hey, any strategy can work if you make the right picks. And you should certainly be open to anything if the draft falls to you that way. But it's a high-risk strategy, and I'm not sure I could recommend anyone go into the draft planning to do that

 

Jayded

Footballguy
I’m a top TE kind of player and prefer to not chase that position unless injuries or something akin to that force my hand. 

In my redraft league, I’ll be aiming to go TE in round 3 unless chips fall better elsewhere. I don’t need Kelce, but I’d like Waller or Pitts and can then grab second tier WR/RB later. 

I almost always see QB value fall far more than TE value falls. Mahomes + garbage TEs would frustrate me all year vs. Waller +  Brady/Herbert/Stafford. Another thing I’d likely do is grab one of the rookie QBs as QB2 so I also had QB upside. 

 

Blackbear

Footballguy
Pre-snap amazing… Mac is your guy. 

Curl routes if you want come back and see a couple INTs each game…. Cam is your guy

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
One or the other but never both.

Since it is WAY easier to stream QBs or find emergent starters on the WW, usually TE and then take QB 10-15

last 3 championships my QBs were WW, pure streamers, WW. but streaming is def getting harder these days. still, every. year. QBs. emerge.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
One or the other but never both.

Since it is WAY easier to stream QBs or find emergent starters on the WW, usually TE and then take QB 10-15

last 3 championships my QBs were WW, pure streamers, WW. but streaming is def getting harder these days. still, every. year. QBs. emerge.
The first rule of streaming QBs is YOU DON'T TALK ABOUT STREAMING--wait, that's not it.

The first rule is that you don't go into the draft looking to stream. As you said, you're looking to find "emergent starters", guys you can get it the late rounds who will become every week starters.

That's one reason I've typically shied away from guys like Rivers, Ben and (Lions-era) Stafford. They typically haven't had Top 5 upside. Also, because they're such big names, it's psychologically going to be hard to ever drop them. This year, I think that definitely applies to Brady. I'm not sure about Stafford. I can definitely see the argument that with McVay, he could make the leap. But it is one reason why, if I wait on QB, I'm more likely to gravitate to a Hurts or Tannehill. Less psychological baggage if I feel the need to move on.

That said, last year I started to see the value in taking a mid-round QB with upside over a total late-rounder. I took Watson in the 5th and that worked out great. I see Wilson and Rodgers in that group this year, maybe Herbert if you expect him to take the second-year leap (if Murray ends up falling in your draft, I would definitely include him, but I'd be surprised if he lasted that long).

Heck, even JJ Zachariason, whose Twitter handle is @LateRoundQB, said last year that he could see the wisdom of a middle-round strategy in some cases.

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
The first rule of streaming QBs is YOU DON'T TALK ABOUT STREAMING--wait, that's not it.

The first rule is that you don't go into the draft looking to stream. As you said, you're looking to find "emergent starters", guys you can get it the late rounds who will become every week starters.

That's one reason I've typically shied away from guys like Rivers, Ben and (Lions-era) Stafford. They typically haven't had Top 5 upside. Also, because they're such big names, it's psychologically going to be hard to ever drop them. This year, I think that definitely applies to Brady. I'm not sure about Stafford. I can definitely see the argument that with McVay, he could make the leap. But it is one reason why, if I wait on QB, I'm more likely to gravitate to a Hurts or Tannehill. Less psychological baggage if I feel the need to move on.

That said, last year I started to see the value in taking a mid-round QB with upside over a total late-rounder. I took Watson in the 5th and that worked out great. I see Wilson and Rodgers in that group this year, maybe Herbert if you expect him to take the second-year leap (if Murray ends up falling in your draft, I would definitely include him, but I'd be surprised if he lasted that long).

Heck, even JJ Zachariason, whose Twitter handle is @LateRoundQB, said last year that he could see the wisdom of a middle-round strategy in some cases.


Yeah, I had Watson last year but it was insane. Dude has never been worse than QB4/5 and he was going QB7, so I scooped him up as well.

This year I was planning on being content with either Hurts, Stafford or Tannehill. But there was mini-run between my 8th and 9th rounds (11th QB went then TWO teams took backups - league draft history is they usually go in the 12th.) At that point I just said eff it and waited until the 12th.

Mayfield and Fields both have upside, if it is going sideways I have tremendous depth and I'm stacked everywhere except QB. I'll either pickup from the WW or swing a trade.

But I agree, there is value in going for say the 5th/6th QB so you're still getting the rushing cheat code. 7 of the top 8 QBs last year were runners or very mobile, the days of pocket passers keeping up are long gone. Almost all the QBs going QB7-13 this year are stationary or have  limited rushing upside.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
TE 4-6, QB 5-7. Hat-tip to @Hot Sauce Guy, who started a whole thread on the TE 4-6 range. I've found that in mocks where I can get Hock/Andrews in the 4th, I really like my team (maybe Pitts, too, though that feels like way too early for a rookie). And while real drafts always end up confounding expectations, I think there's a reasonable chance that they'll be available in that round. As an added bonus, usually in those cases I feel comfortable enough with my RBs/WRs to take that second tier QB like Rodgers or Wilson in the 6th (maybe Herbert, although I think at that point I'd probably be more inclined to wait on QB). The more I think about it, what I like the most about this strategy is that, once I get the TE, I have more flexibility in terms of what I do at QB. Only thing that gives me pause is that, historically, that range has usually ended up being the TE graveyard (think OJ Howard, Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper in recent years).
Those who saw my post in the Draft Regrets thread know that this strategy blew up in my face the other night when I took Hock/Russ at the 5/6 turn and then ended up missing out on a long run of potential RB3s, to the point where the only ones left were backups, scatbacks, and veteran plodders on bad offenses like Coleman or Ingram. I think it was largely the result of drafting out of the 11-slot, but definitely a reason to be cautious pursuing this strategy, especially the way the RB market is shaping up this year.

As of now, I'm leaning more toward pursuing the Top 6 TE/punt on QB strategy. But a lot will depend on draft position. Also, my main money league is one where we can't play RB at the flex, so having depth at the position isn't as important.

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
As of now, I'm leaning more toward pursuing the Top 6 TE/punt on QB strategy. But a lot will depend on draft position. Also, my main money league is one where we can't play RB at the flex, so having depth at the position isn't as important.


Just make sure you cleanse yourself of TSP mindset before you draft. I ended up with Najee, Javonte, Carter, Marshall Jr, and two rookie QBs as backups (Fields & Jones.)

I put my team into a draft analyzer and the first sentence of the report was “This team would be great if you played Dynasty.”

:lmao:

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
As of now, I'm leaning more toward pursuing the Top 6 TE/punt on QB strategy. But a lot will depend on draft position. Also, my main money league is one where we can't play RB at the flex, so having depth at the position isn't as important.
you don’t even need to punt on a QB. you just need to keep your thumb on the pulse of the draft. 

As the 8th round unfolded, and I had 4 RB, 3 WR & Pitts, I noted that only 2 other teams needed QBs. And there were 3 I liked on the board in Stafford -> Tannehill -> Herbert (in that order) 

Some might be tempted to play Russian roulette one more round, but that’s where I’ve been burned in the past when some jackass takes a backup way too early. 

So at 9.01 I grabbed Stafford. Backed him up pretty late with breakout candidate Tua. I don’t want a backup QB unless there’s upside. 

Anyway, point is, it’s not a punt, it’s a plan. Hey, if a Murray or Dak or Brady fell to me at great value, I would have drafted them. But since they didn’t, my plan B was always this. There’s no targeted round - just supply & demand, and going with gut feels. 

Also, sure enough, after I took Stafford, another mini-run on QBs started when 2-3 folks were scooping backups. Both the other 2 teams that needed QBs got hosed. 

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
FTR I took Baker in the 12th (QB14 or15), Fields a round later, and added Mac about five seconds after Cam was cut. Will probably throw Jones back at some point t but thought it might be fun to see who is more productive Y1. 

FF is crazy though. Someone like Darnold or Wentz will come out of nowhere to post Top 12 production. One nice thing about taking a late QB or streaming is you’ll pounce on Minshew or a Hurts right away and ride them fir a hot month. Meanwhile dudes holding mid-level QBs like Stafford, Ryan or Cousins will be like “well I can’t drop this guy who has been posting QB15-20 numbers every week bc draft capital/name recognition/I’ll look stupid.”

I love playing against guys who think that way.

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Meanwhile dudes holding mid-level QBs like Stafford, Ryan or Cousins will be like “well I can’t drop this guy who has been posting QB15-20 numbers every week bc draft capital/name recognition/I’ll look stupid.”

I love playing against guys who think that way.
You take my boo’s name out of your mouth!  :rant:

Stafford is more likely to be too 10 than mid-level this year (is what I’ve been convincing myself of all offseason) 

 

jtd13

Footballguy
Ideally I target a top or 2nd level TE (at worst Hock or Pitts) and an upside combo at QB. If I spend up for top options on both, I don't like the rest of my team. But I also don't want to be in a spot where I need to spend more than 3 roster spots on those 2 positions.

For example, last night I had a draft where I took Hock in the 5th, then went Hurts in the 8th and Lance in 10th. Would have preferred Waller or Kittle in the 3rd, but they didn't make it. But this way I hopefully have top 5 upside at both positions come playoff time. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Ideally I target a top or 2nd level TE (at worst Hock or Pitts) and an upside combo at QB. If I spend up for top options on both, I don't like the rest of my team. But I also don't want to be in a spot where I need to spend more than 3 roster spots on those 2 positions.

For example, last night I had a draft where I took Hock in the 5th, then went Hurts in the 8th and Lance in 10th. Would have preferred Waller or Kittle in the 3rd, but they didn't make it. But this way I hopefully have top 5 upside at both positions come playoff time. 
Was with you on Hurts.   Lance 2 rounds later seems early and/or unnecessary. I love Lance. I hope he starts at some point. If he does, you’re a genius & that pick will easily be justified. 

But in a start 1 QB redraft league I don’t think Lance is worth that much draft equity. 

Otherwise you’re spot on with the plan. Elite TE early at the expense of elite QB. I’m with that 100%. 

 

jtd13

Footballguy
Was with you on Hurts.   Lance 2 rounds later seems early and/or unnecessary. I love Lance. I hope he starts at some point. If he does, you’re a genius & that pick will easily be justified. 

But in a start 1 QB redraft league I don’t think Lance is worth that much draft equity. 

Otherwise you’re spot on with the plan. Elite TE early at the expense of elite QB. I’m with that 100%. 
I did reach on Lance, but this is a unique league. There are 110 teams, divided into 11 leagues. If you make top 2 in your sub league you make the "super playoffs" with other league champs. I like Lance's upside in the playoffs better if he gets in (I'm not convinced Hurts starts all year either, but think he'll be hot while he does). But even in other leagues I am willing to reach for him or Fields. I think they both have a chance to be a high end QB1 like Hurts was down the stretch last year, but better passers. Also I felt pretty good about my skill position guys at that point and am usually just starting to take late shots on guys around round 10-12. 

I looked back and it was actually 12.03 where I took Lance, but that's in my 10 team division. So pick 113. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I did reach on Lance, but this is a unique league. There are 110 teams, divided into 11 leagues. If you make top 2 in your sub league you make the "super playoffs" with other league champs. I like Lance's upside in the playoffs better if he gets in (I'm not convinced Hurts starts all year either, but think he'll be hot while he does). But even in other leagues I am willing to reach for him or Fields. I think they both have a chance to be a high end QB1 like Hurts was down the stretch last year, but better passers. Also I felt pretty good about my skill position guys at that point and am usually just starting to take late shots on guys around round 10-12. 

I looked back and it was actually 12.03 where I took Lance, but that's in my 10 team division. So pick 113. 
Multi-player / multi league leagues confuse and frighten me. I’m just a simple caveman…

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
My general TE Redraft Strategy this year

Kelce if he slides to late round 2 (not likely)

Waller if he slides to late round 3 (not likely)

Hockenson - avoiding, would have to slide to round 6

Pitts - would have to slide to round 5

Logan Thomas - my target in most formats, I take him a round early based on format and expected ADP

Backup Plan - Gesickin/Jonnu Smith in the later rounds 

 

Weebs210

Footballguy
Hurts or bust for QB(got him in all three of my money leagues)

Pitts or hock for te in the 5th.(got pitt in one and hock in two)

 
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Gawain

Footballguy
League I have won twice in a row, so was willing to mess around:

Kelce, Mahomes, Swift, Gus Bus, Davis, Aiyuk, Shenault. 8 teams make the playoffs, so just need a hot three weeks from the Chiefs duo.

 

PantherThunder

Footballguy
Bruce Lee Water Strategy

I do 5 redrafts a year with varying scoring. Trying to target players or positions in certain rounds is just a waste of time. Understanding where the value is when drafts go one way or another is the key. If RB's go fast early I go to  a 0 RB strategy. If Kelce falls to me at a good spot, then I take him and adjust the rest of the draft. In 1 QB leagues I typically wait and go QBBC but If a good one drops to me in the 4-5th round I will take him and adjust. 

So my draft strategy becomes what I need it to be to draft a team to win. I don't need a top TE to win, but I can win with a top TE. 

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
Had a draft for my long-time family league tonight. Took Kittle in the third because I didn't love any of the RB/WR options. So I was definitely going to wait on QB. Ended up getting Stafford in the 9th, which I'm really happy about. Almost took him at the beginning of the 8th, but I pulled an Eddie Murphy in "Trading Places" and sweated it out an extra round and a half, pocketing DeVonta Smith in the bargain. Also took a flier on Tua in the last round.

 

Manster

Footballguy
In a start 2 QB league where TE's are optional I ended up with Brady/Kyler/Roethlispuker and Kelce/Waller.  Took Kelce as my WR1 and Waller fell a bit....Im happy with it.

 

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