ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I'm lumping the two together because I think one tends to affect the other. For example, if you take Kelce in the first you're probably less likely to reach for an elite QB a couple rounds later. At the other end, especially in short bench leagues I prefer to only punt one of the two positions. If I'm going to take two late-round TEs I want at least some certainty at QB, and vice versa.
Here are a couple of strategies I've been playing around with in my mocks. Curious to see what others are doing.
[Obligatory caveat here that I of course recognize that in YOUR league, every owner is a super shark and none of these guys will be available at the rounds I'm discussing. And of course, it's entirely possible that they won't be in my actual leagues as well. I'm just going off what I'm seeing across a range of different mocks (both live and simulators), which is all I really have to go on.]
Anyway, that's where I am as of now. I'm sure my strategy will continue to evolve over the next week. Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot, or what you would do differently, or how my entire premise is off base. Also, do you have a relatively consistent approach across all your leagues, or do you try different things either depending on format or just to diversify your strategy?
Here are a couple of strategies I've been playing around with in my mocks. Curious to see what others are doing.
[Obligatory caveat here that I of course recognize that in YOUR league, every owner is a super shark and none of these guys will be available at the rounds I'm discussing. And of course, it's entirely possible that they won't be in my actual leagues as well. I'm just going off what I'm seeing across a range of different mocks (both live and simulators), which is all I really have to go on.]
- Top 3 TE, punt on QB. I'm really not sure I would take Kelce in the first; maybe if he makes it to 8 or 9 and the elite RBs + Davante/Tyreek are gone. I could definitely see going Waller/Kittle (in that order) in the third. If I do that, I'm really going to try to wait on QB. I mean, maybe if I feel really good about my early RBs/WRs and I can get Wilson or Rodgers in the 6th, but more likely I would wait another couple rounds and shop in the Hurts/Brady/Stafford/Tannehill aisle. I'd prefer not to go below Tanny for my QB1; then you're looking at Ryan, Cousins and Baker. (Maybe at that point I would just say #### it and wait for Fitz.) WIth any of those guys I just mentioned, I would want to take a late-round flier on an upside QB. I'm intrigued by the two running rookies (Fields/Lance), but I actually think Tua might have the highest ceiling. Plus, we'll probably know within a week or two if he's back to his Alabama form, whereas the rookies would need to be stashed.
- TE 4-6, QB 5-7. Hat-tip to @Hot Sauce Guy, who started a whole thread on the TE 4-6 range. I've found that in mocks where I can get Hock/Andrews in the 4th, I really like my team (maybe Pitts, too, though that feels like way too early for a rookie). And while real drafts always end up confounding expectations, I think there's a reasonable chance that they'll be available in that round. As an added bonus, usually in those cases I feel comfortable enough with my RBs/WRs to take that second tier QB like Rodgers or Wilson in the 6th (maybe Herbert, although I think at that point I'd probably be more inclined to wait on QB). The more I think about it, what I like the most about this strategy is that, once I get the TE, I have more flexibility in terms of what I do at QB. Only thing that gives me pause is that, historically, that range has usually ended up being the TE graveyard (think OJ Howard, Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper in recent years).
- Punt on TE, QB 5-7. If I get snaked on those TEs, it won't be a great feeling. First of all, it will become more important that I get a solid, set-it-and-forget-it QB. Again, I'd probably be looking for the likes of Wilson or Rodgers (maybe Dak, but he's generally going before them and I"m not as high on him). Then for TE I'll wait and give Andrew Cooper's "Yin & Yang TE strategy" a whirl. For the Yins, I would target LThomas or Fant, maybe Jarwin or Ebron if I got snaked. For the Yangs, I'd be looking at Henry, Engram (if he's healthy), maybe JSmith. And of course there's also the glory play of Juwan Johnson in the last round, which I find strangely intriguing.
Anyway, that's where I am as of now. I'm sure my strategy will continue to evolve over the next week. Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot, or what you would do differently, or how my entire premise is off base. Also, do you have a relatively consistent approach across all your leagues, or do you try different things either depending on format or just to diversify your strategy?