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What's your redraft strategy for TEs? (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
Saw a similar thread on QBs so I figured I'd start one on TEs, since I'm still figuring it out.

I've never been the type to draft Gronk in the first, and this year I think the price on Reed and Olsen is likely to be too high as well. In most of my mocks so far, I've been waiting until the 6th-8th, which usually means I end up with someone like Ertz or Ebron. That makes me a little nervous, but truth is there are no TEs out there whose value really jumps out at me. In my one league that has a WR/TE flex, I could see taking a second TE late -- Watson, or maybe a total flier on Cameron or Walford.

 
I think the price on Eifert is starting to fall into value territory.  

I dnt like the risk on late TEs compared to the top 5-6 though, so unlike QB which Im happy to stream, I tend to jump into the TE when I feel I have to to get a surer producer.  

If you dont want to jump for Gronk, figure out how deep tye comfort tier goes (Reed, Olsen, Eifert?, Kelce?, Fleener?, etc) and draft one as soon as that pool gets thin.

Dont forget Barnidge and Witten if you do miss the te run.

 
Arodin said:
I think the price on Eifert is starting to fall into value territory.  

I dnt like the risk on late TEs compared to the top 5-6 though, so unlike QB which Im happy to stream, I tend to jump into the TE when I feel I have to to get a surer producer.  

If you dont want to jump for Gronk, figure out how deep tye comfort tier goes (Reed, Olsen, Eifert?, Kelce?, Fleener?, etc) and draft one as soon as that pool gets thin.

Dont forget Barnidge and Witten if you do miss the te run.
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I've historically taken that strategy of targeting TE 4-6, but got burned last year with Kelce and now I'm second-guessing it. But I agree that TE streaming kind of sucks, in large part because you spend a disproportionate amount of time stressing over guys who could crap the bed on any given week.

I'm deeply skeptical of Eifert. Aside from the ankle injury and his general injury-proneness, his TD rate is unsustainable and he had a number of games last year where he disappeared completely.

I'm coming around on Barnidge. I don't think last year is repeatable, but at his current ADP he wouldn't need to repeat it to deliver value.

 
If i can get Reed in the 4th I'd take him. Will not draft Gronk anywhere near his ADP. I think L. Green and Ertz look very attractive at their current ADPs. 

 
Brees is the kind of qb who makes everyone better.  He has had success throwing to big bodied receivers like colston and graham and spreading the ball around so you can"t double anyone.  Watson was an after thought until the saints ran out of receiving options with cooks not really fit for the wr1 role, snead a rookie with ok talent, graham gone, hill under performing, and colston a faded memory.   

Flacco is a gamer with a cannon arm who puts vertical pressure on the defense with the threat of long touchdowns or pass interference calls.  He has never had a big stud receiver and tight ends have not done especially well in baltimore.  Trestman doesn't really feature the tight end as a receiving option, and watson is not sure to even be the starting tight end.

It would shock me to see watson be fantasy relevant this year.  He might have a couple good games, but hes just not that guy.  

 
bostonfred said:
Brees is the kind of qb who makes everyone better.  He has had success throwing to big bodied receivers like colston and graham and spreading the ball around so you can"t double anyone.  Watson was an after thought until the saints ran out of receiving options with cooks not really fit for the wr1 role, snead a rookie with ok talent, graham gone, hill under performing, and colston a faded memory.   

Flacco is a gamer with a cannon arm who puts vertical pressure on the defense with the threat of long touchdowns or pass interference calls.  He has never had a big stud receiver and tight ends have not done especially well in baltimore.  Trestman doesn't really feature the tight end as a receiving option, and watson is not sure to even be the starting tight end.

It would shock me to see watson be fantasy relevant this year.  He might have a couple good games, but hes just not that guy.  
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My counterpoint to that would be Smitty is like 56, Perriman hasn't proven he can stay off the trainer's table, Wallace has grossly under performed since leaving the Steelers offense, and the other TEs on the roster are banged up. While maybe Watson's success last year was a result of the Saints running out of receiving options, it sure isn't a stretch to see the same situation in Baltimore this year...

 
CabinFever said:
My counterpoint to that would be Smitty is like 56, Perriman hasn't proven he can stay off the trainer's table, Wallace has grossly under performed since leaving the Steelers offense, and the other TEs on the roster are banged up. While maybe Watson's success last year was a result of the Saints running out of receiving options, it sure isn't a stretch to see the same situation in Baltimore this year...
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Watson is just as old as Smitty in a much more physically demanding position.

 
True, but they guy is jacked up and not coming off a major injury like Smitty. (although I'm a huge Smitty fan and hoping he has a great swan song season) 

 
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CabinFever said:
My counterpoint to that would be Smitty is like 56, Perriman hasn't proven he can stay off the trainer's table, Wallace has grossly under performed since leaving the Steelers offense, and the other TEs on the roster are banged up. While maybe Watson's success last year was a result of the Saints running out of receiving options, it sure isn't a stretch to see the same situation in Baltimore this year...
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Would it be a shock to see brees put up bad numbers? Yes.  Flacco?  No.  Especially returning from injury.

Trestman also loves throwing to the rbs.  Even with injuries they had 827 rb receiving yards last year. Smith, kamar aiken, wallace, perriman and co should combine for 2500 yards between them.  Maxx powers and crockett gilmore might get like 250 or 300 each.  Thats 4000 yards right there with fairly conservative numbers for everyone.  Which is a lot, considering flacco has never actually thrown for 4000 yards in his career. 

Is there room for watson to put up numbers?  Sure.  But its not the foregone conclusion i think you think it is.

 
Not sure his ADP but loving Martellus. A very good TE in a TE-friendly offense. No one else in his range has the same TD potential. He could easily have three 2+ TD games depending on red zone usage.

 
CabinFever said:
My counterpoint to that would be Smitty is like 56, Perriman hasn't proven he can stay off the trainer's table, Wallace has grossly under performed since leaving the Steelers offense, and the other TEs on the roster are banged up. While maybe Watson's success last year was a result of the Saints running out of receiving options, it sure isn't a stretch to see the same situation in Baltimore this year...
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But everything you say was also the case in BAL last season, and it resulted in exactly zero viable fantasy production from the TE position. Fun fact: Kyle Juszczyk got more receiving targets than any Ravens' TE in 2015. Kyle Juszczyk!

I'm fading Ben Watson hard for the same reason I faded Graham last season and I'm buying shares of Fleener this season: it's Brees who makes his TEs, not the other way around.

 
To answer @zftcg's original question:

IMO, I won't take Gronk in the first unless it's a TE-premium scoring system (e.g. in a 2PPR for TE league I'd take him any time 1.02 or later). I've mocked him there a couple of times and I hate the teams I wind up with. I most likely won't pay the going rate for Reed or Olsen either as I think they're both being drafted at or close to their ceilings.

I'm fine with whichever of the TEs between Kelce (TE4) and Ertz (TE10) come at a discount. In every mock, there's always at least one and usually 2-3 that fall a round or two past their ADP. But I don't want to be the last guy taking a TE in 12- and 14-teamers as I think there's a big gap between Ertz and the Thomas/Gates/Bennett tier. In fact, I'd take Dwayne Allen over any of those other three straight up even though his ADP is a full round later.

I'm targeting Charles Clay everywhere as my TE2, except in keeper leagues where I want some shares of Walford. And that's about it, really - no one else I haven't mentioned really excites me this year.

 
The TES on my radar:

1st Gronk- my roster requirements include 2 WR,  1TE and 1WR/TR spot so it allows me the flexibility to take Gronk since he can play as a TE or WR. I basically treat him as a WR that can be started in the TE spot. In standard, when you compare Gronk to a player going in a similar spot like AJ Green, Gronk compares well. Over the last 3 years, Gronk has a 16 game average of 1250 and 11.6 (12.2 ppg).  AJ has a 16 game average of 1368 and 9.8 (12.2 ppg). In terms of career floors and ceilings (tossing out both of their rookie years), Gronk has a 15.1-11.9 range of per game averages. AJ's is 13.0-11.4. So for my league, Gronk is a logical 1st round pick. 

4th Reed- Injuries really do worry me though, but the idea of maybe getting Gronk play at a 4th round price is tempting. 

10th Barnidge -When you just look at the name, age, and career stats this seems like the biggest 1 year wonder in history, but if you watch the film you see a really good player. He is big, has good hands and is athletic. The new coach likely won't throw as much, but he does have a history of throwing to the TE. We just saw how efficiently he used Eiffert in the RZ. There is some risk here, but if I can get him in the 10, it's worth it since once Barnidge was entrenched as the starter he scored on par with Gronk and Reed. 

11th Gates- Can't beat this price on a proven player in a high volume offense coming off of a finish as TE7 in ppg for standard. 

12th Allen- Big TD upside as the Colts like RZ options. This is my worst case scenario pick. If end up taking Allen, I will also draft another TE to pair him with in hopes that one of them pans out as a weekly starter (Witten, Tye, Miller, McDonald, Ebron). 

 
I have a few I'm looking to target: Fleener, Barnidge, Ertz, Gates, Walker, and Allen. I won't draft Gronk more than likely because I don't want to pay his price. Same with Reed. I'd take a chance on Reed or Olsen if they slipped to the 6th or so, but I'm not going out of my way to grab them. I'd rather wait and take one of those guys on my list. If Allen is able to stay healthy, he should be in line for plenty of targets.

 
massraider said:
Eifert and Ebron.  
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   In mock drafts so far I like Ertz/Thomas/Barnidge around the 7th-8th if they're still there and I pair them with an upside TE like Ebron/Walford/ASJ 13th/14th. 

12 team 1-3-2-1-1 PPR; flex is E-R/T

Last year I paired Kelce with Reed. Would love a repeat of that scenario lol.

 
I'm in an auction league (still redraft!) where the top guys at every position go for way above market value. I'll wait for the value in the 6-10 range and double up on the position since there's a few options I like outside the top 12.

Out of my price range: Gronk, Reed, Olsen, Walker, Kelce, Eifert

I'll target any of these if on the cheap: Fleener, Barnidge, Gates, Ertz, Thomas

Will grab one of these as my 2nd TE: Ebron, Bennett, Allen

I want no part of him but will likely nominate Jimmy Graham for $1 at some point and watch others bid him up while I drop out.

 
If I have a mid to late first round pick, I'm taking Gronk.  It has worked out very well for me the past few years.

 
I'll take Gates or Bennett if the price is right.  Otherwise I am pretty confident that one of Tye, Walford, Cameron, Watson, etc.. will emerge and become a viable starter that I can pick up off the waiver wire.  I don't see a lot of value at TE in the mid picks this year.  

 
ldizzle said:
Is Delanie off everyone's radar? Who else are they gonna pass to?
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I think it was on the Living the Stream podcast where they did a great breakdown of why Walker's 2015 was unrepeatable. TLDR: His numbers last year were almost entirely the product of his volume, and there's no way he'll get the same volume. I'll see if I can dig up the link; it was a couple weeks ago, and it was presumably their "overvalued players" episode. I found it very convincing.

 
Ilov80s said:
The TES on my radar:

1st Gronk- my roster requirements include 2 WR,  1TE and 1WR/TR spot so it allows me the flexibility to take Gronk since he can play as a TE or WR. I basically treat him as a WR that can be started in the TE spot. In standard, when you compare Gronk to a player going in a similar spot like AJ Green, Gronk compares well. Over the last 3 years, Gronk has a 16 game average of 1250 and 11.6 (12.2 ppg).  AJ has a 16 game average of 1368 and 9.8 (12.2 ppg). In terms of career floors and ceilings (tossing out both of their rookie years), Gronk has a 15.1-11.9 range of per game averages. AJ's is 13.0-11.4. So for my league, Gronk is a logical 1st round pick. 

4th Reed- Injuries really do worry me though, but the idea of maybe getting Gronk play at a 4th round price is tempting. 

10th Barnidge -When you just look at the name, age, and career stats this seems like the biggest 1 year wonder in history, but if you watch the film you see a really good player. He is big, has good hands and is athletic. The new coach likely won't throw as much, but he does have a history of throwing to the TE. We just saw how efficiently he used Eiffert in the RZ. There is some risk here, but if I can get him in the 10, it's worth it since once Barnidge was entrenched as the starter he scored on par with Gronk and Reed. 

11th Gates- Can't beat this price on a proven player in a high volume offense coming off of a finish as TE7 in ppg for standard. 

12th Allen- Big TD upside as the Colts like RZ options. This is my worst case scenario pick. If end up taking Allen, I will also draft another TE to pair him with in hopes that one of them pans out as a weekly starter (Witten, Tye, Miller, McDonald, Ebron). 
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I play in a WR/TE flex league as well. I basically view it as 3WR, so it doesn't really make me any more likely to reach for Gronk -- or more accurately, it doesn't overcome my general aversion to reaching for Gronk in the 1st. What it does do is make me more likely to take a second TE late, since in the unlikely event that they both blow up, I'm not forced to have one sitting on my bench. (Also, it's a 16-teamer, so sometimes the pickings for that flex spot are pretty crappy).

 
BobbyLayne said:
   In mock drafts so far I like Ertz/Thomas/Barnidge around the 7th-8th if they're still there and I pair them with an upside TE like Ebron/Walford/ASJ 13th/14th. 

12 team 1-3-2-1-1 PPR; flex is E-R/T

Last year I paired Kelce with Reed. Would love a repeat of that scenario lol.
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Last year I came up with the brilliant strategy of pairing Gates with a late-round TE who was very talented but injury prone. My theory was that I just needed him to stay healthy for the first four weeks, and then Gates would be back.

So I grabbed Gates and with a later pick got my talented injury risk: Jordan ...

... Cameron.

D'oh!

 
I plan to get my starters at RB and WR before I grab my TE.  My league starts 2RBs, 3WRs and a Flex so I most likely won't be looking at TE until the 7th round.  If there isn't a TE I like I will just keep waiting because I am not going to reach for one.  I'm targeting someone like Barnidge, Gates or Allen.  I just really don't care for the TE position at all.

 
trogg78 said:
If I have a mid to late first round pick, I'm taking Gronk.  It has worked out very well for me the past few years.
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All things considered, if the top tier of WR is gone then Gronk is a slam dunk, maybe even if a couple are still on the board

 
trogg78 said:
I think the way RBs get hurt it is more important to have depth at running back than it is to have a top RB.
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But that top RB would be part of your depth.  It just adds to your chances.  If you feel Gronk is better than any WR or RB that's available then go for it, I would too but rarely do I like how my team looks when I take Gronk in the first.

 
zftcg said:
I play in a WR/TE flex league as well. I basically view it as 3WR, so it doesn't really make me any more likely to reach for Gronk -- or more accurately, it doesn't overcome my general aversion to reaching for Gronk in the 1st. What it does do is make me more likely to take a second TE late, since in the unlikely event that they both blow up, I'm not forced to have one sitting on my bench. (Also, it's a 16-teamer, so sometimes the pickings for that flex spot are pretty crappy).
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I agree, I never want to play a TE in the WR/TE spot. Ideally, I never want to have to play a TE ever period. TEs are trash compared to WRs. There is one exception to that and it's Gronk. Statistically, Gronk performs on par with a high level WR ( see my post comparing Gronk to AJ). That means if I play Gronk at TE, it is essentially turning that TE spot into an extra WR spot. It would be the equivalent of somehow a league allowing AJ Green to be classified as a TE/WR. Remember Colston's rookie year when Yahoo accidentally labeled him that way and he had a 1186/9 pace year. He was a beast and the top TE by a mile. It's because he wasn't a TE, he was just a WR that could be played in the TE spot. That's what Gronk is.

The reason it's more ideal to take Gronk in a league with a WR/TE flex spot is that if your WRs fail, Gronk can always be shifted to the WR spot, perform like a WR1 and TE can be streamed/replaced. If I take Gronk early, I do get a late TE. Not in case he blows up and I want to start both, but more in case my WRs fail and I need to move Gronk into the WR/TE flex spot. 

 
pantherclub said:
I would be fine with that, RB bust rate is too rich for me to take one in the first couple of rounds.   The rate of turnover at the top has been discussed relentlessly on here.
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I prefer WRs in the early rounds too but I am not going to pass on a RB1 for a WR2 or WR3.  That just seems like a bad strategy.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
But that top RB would be part of your depth.  It just adds to your chances.  If you feel Gronk is better than any WR or RB that's available then go for it, I would too but rarely do I like how my team looks when I take Gronk in the first.
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But it is sinking a major investment into that depth. I would rather use later less valuable picks to build depth at RB. 

 
If Gronk falls to the end of round 1, I'll have to consider him. That said, I have a hard time taking him over guys like AJ Green, or Dez Bryant, and they both seem to be going after him. 

I don't know if it will hold up to when I draft, but Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen have both been falling a lot further than I would have expected them to. Reed is routinely going in round 4, and Olsen in round 5, and they are both well worth those picks.

I think Eifert and Gates are probably the best values. Eifert is starting to fall into double digit rounds, and Gates has been there all along.

I loved Fleener 2 months ago, but he's going too high for me now. He's basically going just after Kelce in round 6. I'd rather wait for Eifert 4+ rounds later. 

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I prefer WRs in the early rounds too but I am not going to pass on a RB1 for a WR2 or WR3.  That just seems like a bad strategy.
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What do you mean by RB1 or WR2, WR3? Like the 2nd or 3rd WR on your team? 2nd or 3rd tier WRs? The 12th-24th, 25th-36th drafted WRs?

 
Ilov80s said:
But it is sinking a major investment into that depth. I would rather use later less valuable picks to build depth at RB. 
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I don't feel that way at all.  I'll just grab my TE later and stock up on my RBs and WRs in the top half of the draft where they have much better odds at performing well.

 
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Hawkeye21 said:
I prefer WRs in the early rounds too but I am not going to pass on a RB1 for a WR2 or WR3.  That just seems like a bad strategy.
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I honestly do not understand what you mean here?   Fantasy WR 2 and 3 or NFL roster 2 or 3?   If you are filling out your roster and you start say 3 wr's, I could totally see drafting another wr over a RB to load up on that position.  Again the bust rate for the top rb's is off the charts.  Seems like every year a Thomas Rawls or such sprout up late in the year.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I don't feel that way at all.  I'll just grab my TE later and stock up on my RBs and WRs in the top half of the draft where they have much better odds at performing well.
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No issue with that at all. I don't think I would take Gronk that high in a league where there wasn't a WR/TE flex only spot. 

 
pantherclub said:
I honestly do not understand what you mean here?   Fantasy WR 2 and 3 or NFL roster 2 or 3?   If you are filling out your roster and you start say 3 wr's, I could totally see drafting another wr over a RB to load up on that position.  Again the bust rate for the top rb's is off the charts.  Seems like every year a Thomas Rawls or such sprout up late in the year.
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I'm talking tiers.  If a tier 1 RB is available I am not going to pass on him to grab a tier 2 or 3 WR just because I want to go WR/WR/WR in my draft.  I think that's a poor strategy.

 
pantherclub said:
I honestly do not understand what you mean here?   Fantasy WR 2 and 3 or NFL roster 2 or 3?   If you are filling out your roster and you start say 3 wr's, I could totally see drafting another wr over a RB to load up on that position.  Again the bust rate for the top rb's is off the charts.  Seems like every year a Thomas Rawls or such sprout up late in the year.
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Not even just bust rate, but attrition rate. There are plenty of RBs that are good picks, play well, but just don't finish the year when you need them most (for example Mark Ingram and even Thomas Rawls last year).

 
Hawkeye21 said:
I'm talking tiers.  If a tier 1 RB is available I am not going to pass on him to grab a tier 2 or 3 WR just because I want to go WR/WR/WR in my draft.  I think that's a poor strategy.
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I would pick a Brandon Marshall, D Thomas, Jordy over someone like Martin/Ingram/McCoy/L Miller/J Charles in a heartbeat

 
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