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When do you cut your losses? (1 Viewer)

Phrenchdude

Footballguy
It's easy to cut backups and fringe players but it's considerably more difficult to get rid of guys on which you spent a relatively high draft pick (say round 2 to 5). Obviously, I'm not alking about cuts due to injuries (ie Ryan Grant) or top-tier players for which you'll always find a trade for (someone will always offer you something for slumping MJD or Ray Rice, frankly you'd be a fool to drop them outright).

But when it comes to clearly underperforming second-tiered players like Johnathan Stewart, Dwayne Bowe, or starters on schwaggy teams like Jerome Harrison, Justin Forsett, CJ-Spiller, who fail to live up to their hype, when do you decide to cut them outright to make room for someone else on your bench?

This goes back to the opportunity vs skill debate. Take Jerome Harrison or Justin Foresett: they have the starting job and get their fair share of carries each game (opportunity) but they consistently under perform due to a bad OL or QB play or all of the above. Their "upside" is based on a better performing teammate that may give them a little more running room. It's easy to develop some "emotional" attachment to a player you've drafted and convince yourself that "by the time week 6 rolls around, once the team has digested the new offensive schemes and playbook, the OL will be more cohesive and the QB better protected", etc. You could end up holding onto dead weight for 13 weeks.

On the flip side, stashing a promising rookie (skill) from a solid team on your bench has a lot of upside too, pending the injury of the starting player of course (ie Javon Ringer, Rashad Jennings, Chris Ivory, Bernard Scott, etc). Gambling on youth and the relative unknown capability is much sexier than gambling on old or boring and failing players. Everyone wants to snag the next FWP of the WW and ride him to Fantasy Glory. Conversely, you could also end up holding onto a player that never sees more than a carry or 2 per game the entire season.

In either case it's something that may or may never happen, in each case you're taking a flyer on a possible but uncertain scenario. A gamble is a gamble, but when do you take the conscious decision to drop player you drafted and place your chips on an exciting prospect? How long do you give your initial investment before cutting your losses?

 
I will indefinitely hold on a to player that has more real or perceived value than what's available on the waiver wire. Real value means they add more points to my team under current circumstances relative to anything available on the wire. Perceived value means other people in my league value the player more under any circumstances relative to anything available on the wire - which means the player has some potential trade value.

Ultimately, for me, real value always trumps perceived value because trading is at best unreliable and at worst nonexistent. So if a player's real value falls low enough, I'll take another player off waivers with more real value, even if he has less perceived value (basically, I'll let someone else deal with my headache of having a "big name" fantasy leech). An example is Darren McFadden after week one, when he was under 50% owned. If I had no other option, I would have dropped someone like Bowe (less real value, more perceived value) in a heartbeat to take a chance on McFadden (someone with a ton of real value and almost zero perceived value) to win more games.

As far as opportunity vs. upside, generally, I'll always prefer a RB that gets startable points over a pure backup lottery ticket (again, real value trumps) - startable points for me means a shot at 1k rushing yards and handful of TDs. Someone like Forsett doesn't get startable points IMO so I wouldn't roster him. But someone like Cadillac Williams, I will roster over a Javon Ringer or Bernard Scott. Obviously Caddy has less upside and less perceived value, but I know I can plug him in for a couple weeks and get 6-10 points if one of my starters gets injured or is on a bye.

 
I'm bout to cut Steve Smith (NY) I can't stand the fact I drafted him as my #2...luckily took Welker soon after and just made a trade for the other Steve Smith. I am about to just outright cut him. He is almost irrelevant in that offense

 
I'm saying goodbye to Dwayne Bowe this week. I don't ever want to be tempted to put him in my lineup again.

 
Shaun Alexander 2007

I don't know what my point is but whenever a discussion like this arises I have to write Shaun Alexander and the year 2007.

 
10 team league

I have Crabtree and T.O.

Thinking about dropping one for either Lynch, or Brown, I have Addia so Brown is temping.

 
Never. I still have Kevan Barlow, Garrison Hearst, Rudi Johnson, and Ryan Leaf on my squad from my dynasty draft a decade ago.

You never know.

 
If there's no injury to said player, nor any injuries/suspensions (from which they'll recover soon) to vital surrounding cast? If it's a guy taken in the 1st 5 rounds, I'll likely give him 3 weeks in my starting lineup to start the year. If I can't trade him, dropping him of course depends on who's available.

 
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I'm bout to cut Steve Smith (NY) I can't stand the fact I drafted him as my #2...luckily took Welker soon after and just made a trade for the other Steve Smith. I am about to just outright cut him. He is almost irrelevant in that offense
Never a bad idea to cut a guy who is Top 15 in targets this year on a Top 10 offense who had 107 catches for 1220 yards and 7 TD's last year, especially when the primary tight end is banged up and the other starting WR is nursing a sore ankle. I'm sure he wont get targeted at all considering the Giants rarely need to pass, so I pronounce Steve Smith as the NoCheese "safe cut of the week"
 
10 team leagueI have Crabtree and T.O.Thinking about dropping one for either Lynch, or Brown, I have Addia so Brown is temping.
TO is still getting in tune with Palmer but he's been targeted like crazy. I'd hang on to him. Crabtree is definitely behind Vernon in the 49ers offense and maybe behind Morgan too (not to mention Gore).
 
I have Crabtree & Bowe as my WR2 & WR3 and thought I was set. Unfortunately, Im not although Im not ready to cut them yet. For now I will put them on the bench and start guys like Murphy & Maclin. Nothing better out there on the WW anyway

 
I'm saying goodbye to Dwayne Bowe this week. I don't ever want to be tempted to put him in my lineup again.
I'm giving him one more week (on the bench) and then ditto for me.There's something to be said for the above strategy. I did the same with Lee Evans a couple years ago and that move alone gave me a playoff berth. He blew up the next week and I would have been tempted to continue starting him. His replacement (someone solid but unspectacular) got me like 9 points the last week when I was fighting for a spot, and Evans put up 2 or 3. I won by 2 and made the playoffs.Almost a "save me from myself" strategy.
 
This discussion brings me to last year. Donnie Avery and Lance Moore were my #2 and 3 WR's. I clinged to them until about the 5th week. I couldn't stand it any longer. Avery I flat out cut. Moore I managed to throw into a trade. I was going to just cut him but the guy wanted moore as the extra.

Point is, can't cling forever. Unless your winning. Then you can buy some time to see if they turn it around. IF your losing, you have to move fast.

 
I gave up on Bowe. I drafted him as a WR2, even had him projected to be a high end WR2, possible WR1.... but with how horrible Cassell seems to be playing, I give up. I just traded D. Bowe and Tolbert, who I just snagged off waivers today, for M. Colston.

 
I gave up on Bowe. I drafted him as a WR2, even had him projected to be a high end WR2, possible WR1.... but with how horrible Cassell seems to be playing, I give up. I just traded D. Bowe and Tolbert, who I just snagged off waivers today, for M. Colston.
ITs funny, I just traded Cassel straight up for Mike X. Williams in a 2QB league. I think I made out on that deal. I can't believe how bad he is this year.
 
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I gave up on Bowe. I drafted him as a WR2, even had him projected to be a high end WR2, possible WR1.... but with how horrible Cassell seems to be playing, I give up. I just traded D. Bowe and Tolbert, who I just snagged off waivers today, for M. Colston.
This is so funny, i drafted Crabtree and Bowe as well! Luckily though, with my first 2 picks i took Fitz and Calvin, so Bowe/Crabtree will always be fighting for the #3 slow. This week i picked up the 2 raider's receivers, so one of them is in my starting lineup over those two. Unfortunately, i can't cut either of them since this is a keeper league where we keep 6 players at no cost. Crabtree is going to be an outerworldly stud, I'm pretty sure of it. So i'm keeping him for the next 5-10 years (if i'm even playing Fantasy football then, lol). Crabtree has the potential to be a top 3 WR in the league. That's how much i believe in the guy. He reminds me of FItzgerald.
 
I gave up on Bowe. I drafted him as a WR2, even had him projected to be a high end WR2, possible WR1.... but with how horrible Cassell seems to be playing, I give up. I just traded D. Bowe and Tolbert, who I just snagged off waivers today, for M. Colston.
This is so funny, i drafted Crabtree and Bowe as well! Luckily though, with my first 2 picks i took Fitz and Calvin, so Bowe/Crabtree will always be fighting for the #3 slow. This week i picked up the 2 raider's receivers, so one of them is in my starting lineup over those two. Unfortunately, i can't cut either of them since this is a keeper league where we keep 6 players at no cost. Crabtree is going to be an outerworldly stud, I'm pretty sure of it. So i'm keeping him for the next 5-10 years (if i'm even playing Fantasy football then, lol). Crabtree has the potential to be a top 3 WR in the league. That's how much i believe in the guy. He reminds me of FItzgerald.
I don't know how lucky that is. Fitz and Calvin have been pretty weak so far.
 
I gave up on Bowe. I drafted him as a WR2, even had him projected to be a high end WR2, possible WR1.... but with how horrible Cassell seems to be playing, I give up. I just traded D. Bowe and Tolbert, who I just snagged off waivers today, for M. Colston.
This is so funny, i drafted Crabtree and Bowe as well! Luckily though, with my first 2 picks i took Fitz and Calvin, so Bowe/Crabtree will always be fighting for the #3 slow. This week i picked up the 2 raider's receivers, so one of them is in my starting lineup over those two. Unfortunately, i can't cut either of them since this is a keeper league where we keep 6 players at no cost. Crabtree is going to be an outerworldly stud, I'm pretty sure of it. So i'm keeping him for the next 5-10 years (if i'm even playing Fantasy football then, lol). Crabtree has the potential to be a top 3 WR in the league. That's how much i believe in the guy. He reminds me of FItzgerald.
I don't know how lucky that is. Fitz and Calvin have been pretty weak so far.
Tolbert and Cassell for Colston seems like a steal to me. Esp. when you sound like he will be your WR2.

Fitz I would be concerned about but I think Johnson is possibly not going to be spectacular but definitely steady as long as he stays healthy this year. Whatever happens with Stafford is gravy, I think Hill is at least competent enough, combined with Best's talent and at least some TE depth that defenses have to kind of consider, teams can't totally focus on Johnson anymore. I totally bought into the Detroit O this year and maybe I expected a little too much I still think it will be reasonably productive.

Arizona on the other hand is just abysmal. Sad really.

 
I cut Jabar Gaffney and Mike X. Williams to add Mike Sims-Walker and Johnny Knox, today. I believe I made solid upgrades. Someone dropped Sims-Walker to FA after his week 1 no show. Now, I just have to wait for Big Ben to come back to see if Mike Wallace pans out.

 
shnikies said:
Shaun Alexander 2007I don't know what my point is but whenever a discussion like this arises I have to write Shaun Alexander and the year 2007.
This reminds me of Alexander in the elder years in Madden. I think he was a 78 speed - pretty sad...
 
i'm having a hard time holding onto S.Greene and M.Barber. Only the fact i'm 2-0 makes it a little easier to be patient. I've given thought to cutting either one for Tolbert but haven't yet.

 
Dear Felix Jones,

For several years now, you have occupied my bench (in several leagues), only to score very mediocre points and continue to underachieve. Perhaps it's coaching, perhaps it just a crowded back field. Nonetheless, I am tired of reaching for something that seems it will obviously never be there (at least when I need it anyway). I've found someone else.

Sincerely,

hip80

 
I too am getting restless with Marion Barber. I ignored the preseason games where Dallas had trouble with their offensive line. I reasoned that the preseason wouldn't matter. When the bright lights came on, Dallas would be one of the juggernaut offenses. But even Tony Romo has been taking diggs at the ineffective running game saying that it's hard to execute in the passing game when he's constantly in 3rd and 8 instead of 3rd and 4 situations.

I figured that Felix and Choice were going to cut deeply into his carries, but that Barber would be worth owning due to the high power offense, and that he would be the primary GL back.

I've tried to trade Barber several times, even as a nice throw-in and I'm getting no interest. I get counter-offers with Barber removed from my original proposal (and I grudgingly have accepted). He rots on my bench and is unstartable till further notice, but undroppable based on name value. I'd take a good kicker or situational defense for him at this point.

 
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I too am getting restless with Marion Barber. I ignored the preseason games where Dallas had trouble with their offensive line. I reasoned that the preseason wouldn’t matter. When the bright lights came on, Dallas would be one of the juggernaut offenses. But even Tony Romo has been taking digs at the ineffective running game saying that it’s hard to execute in the passing game when he’s constantly in 3rd and 8 instead of 3rd and 4 situations.I figured that Felix and Choice were going to cut deeply into his carries, but that Barber would worth owning due to the high power offense, and that he would be the primary GL back. I’ve tried to trade Barber several times, even as a nice throw-in and I’m getting no interest. I get counter-offers with Barber removed from my original proposal (and I grudgingly have accepted). He rots on my bench and is unstartable till further notice, but undroppable based on “name value”. I’d take a good kicker or situational defense for him at this point.
Would you dump him for Tolbert, given it looks like Tolbert might well get the start this week? And also knowing someone in your league will pick him up and stash him based on name value? I'm considering doing this but nervous Dallas might pull around and actually lean on the running game for once in the coming games.Edit: That last comment wasn't meant to come across like an assistant coach type questions, more for a discussion on relative value since we share a common player
 
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Would you dump him (Barber) for Tolbert, given it looks like Tolbert might well get the start this week? And also knowing someone in your league will pick him up and stash him based on name value? I'm considering doing this but nervous Dallas might pull around and actually lean on the running game for once in the coming games.
Fortunately, I don't need Barber. I have plenty of RB depth but am weak at WR/TE. I want to upgrade there but can't get even a WR 3/4 type. Tolbert was already taken from the WW in a bidding war I wanted no part of. I think he's short term help, and that Mathews will be back sooner than later.
 
Would you dump him (Barber) for Tolbert, given it looks like Tolbert might well get the start this week? And also knowing someone in your league will pick him up and stash him based on name value? I'm considering doing this but nervous Dallas might pull around and actually lean on the running game for once in the coming games.
Fortunately, I don't need Barber. I have plenty of RB depth but am weak at WR/TE. I want to upgrade there but can't get even a WR 3/4 type. Tolbert was already taken from the WW in a bidding war I wanted no part of. I think he's short term help, and that Mathews will be back sooner than later.
I would tend to agree and that Tolbert is actually of far more value to the Mathews owner (who for some reason hasn't picked him up yet in our local).
 
I cut Anthony Gonzalez in one dynasty league, always injured, Manning spreads the ball around. I'm also holding Crabtree but am concerned he might be ShrimpShrub, haha. The whole "effort" "diva" talk is concerning and AS didn't even look his way much at all. It's just too early to cut players (like a Shonn Greene) unless the WW is loaded. By years end some players that are great now will be basic and vice versa. Weeks 3-5 is more like the time to make a GM decision. Bad offenses like the Bills, Browns, or Raiders can make the decision easy and early.

 
I'm bout to cut Steve Smith (NY) I can't stand the fact I drafted him as my #2...luckily took Welker soon after and just made a trade for the other Steve Smith. I am about to just outright cut him. He is almost irrelevant in that offense
Never a bad idea to cut a guy who is Top 15 in targets this year on a Top 10 offense who had 107 catches for 1220 yards and 7 TD's last year, especially when the primary tight end is banged up and the other starting WR is nursing a sore ankle. I'm sure he wont get targeted at all considering the Giants rarely need to pass, so I pronounce Steve Smith as the NoCheese "safe cut of the week"
:lmao: :yes: :lmao: :lmao:Just traded FOR him. Price was DIRT cheap.

 
I'm bout to cut Steve Smith (NY) I can't stand the fact I drafted him as my #2...luckily took Welker soon after and just made a trade for the other Steve Smith. I am about to just outright cut him. He is almost irrelevant in that offense
Never a bad idea to cut a guy who is Top 15 in targets this year on a Top 10 offense who had 107 catches for 1220 yards and 7 TD's last year, especially when the primary tight end is banged up and the other starting WR is nursing a sore ankle. I'm sure he wont get targeted at all considering the Giants rarely need to pass, so I pronounce Steve Smith as the NoCheese "safe cut of the week"
I'm sensing some sarcasm here.I actually posted SS, NYG as a buy low candidate in another thread today....especially in PPR. He may catch 10 balls next week.

 

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