When do you follow your gut? (1 Viewer)

[Bayhawks]

Not naming names because I don’t want this to be a asst coach topic, but I picked up a player off WW to play this week.  After WW moves, one of my current players stands to get more work (b/c of an injury to one of his teammates).  Now I’m second-guessing my gut.  When do you ignore rankings, matchups, etc & “go with your gut?”

 

[cloppbeast]

You're setting yourself up with such topic.

 

[Soulfly3]

just start gordon. don't overthink it you shmuck. 

 

[msudaisy26]

Every time. Because if I am wrong I can live with it, but when I follow the "experts" and they are wrong I kick myself for not trusting my instincts. One of these years I will keep track of it and see what happens.

Off the top of my head last week I benched Rodgers for Garrapolo and Goff and I was right on both in my leagues. I also benched Brady for Luck last week and I was wrong. I also went with the Ravens defense over the Bears and it cost me a game because the "experts" had more projected points to the Ravens. That still hurts.

 

[Hilts]

I try to avoid following my gut as much as possible. If I distrust the rankings I use, I want to have concrete reasons to support my actions. If you go with your gut you'll remember all the times it worked but forget all the times it gave you mildly inferior outcomes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not naming names because I don’t want this to be a asst coach topic, but I picked up a player off WW to play this week.  After WW moves, one of my current players stands to get more work (b/c of an injury to one of his teammates).  Now I’m second-guessing my gut.  When do you ignore rankings, matchups, etc & “go with your gut?”

So you claimed Bernard but you’ve got Latavius Murray? 

I’d flip a coin, but Murray is the better start. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ok, ok - guesses aside, I always go with my gut. 

That said, I don’t do it to unreasonable lengths. 

If I’ve got two players of perceived equal value I play the matchup. 

I usually evaluate in this order:

1. Always start your studs.

2. Always start your studs.

3. If one of your best team is out, hurt or has not lived up to expectations (R.Freeman, Collins, for examples) I would likely stick with them unless matchup dictates otherwise. For example, I’m starting Collins in one league at RB2, but benching R.Freeman (for Murray) at RB2 because he’s underperformed AND has a bad matchup. 

4. If a peripheral player is hurt that impacts my player’s potential productivity. Ex: if a key OL goes down, or a QB if I have the WR/TE.

So “go with your gut” is a bit of a misnomer - sure, we all have gut-checks on the weekly...but you gotta evaluate the data too, to form a gut feeling. 

Otherwise you’re just throwing darts every week. 

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Every time. Because if I am wrong I can live with it, but when I follow the "experts" and they are wrong I kick myself for not trusting my instincts. 

 

[Hilts]

Ok, ok - guesses aside, I always go with my gut. 

That said, I don’t do it to unreasonable lengths. 

If I’ve got two players of perceived equal value I play the matchup. 

I usually evaluate in this order:

1. Always start your studs.

2. Always start your studs.

3. If one of your best team is out, hurt or has not lived up to expectations (R.Freeman, Collons, for examples) I would likely stick with them unless matchup dictates otherwise. For example, I’m starting Collons in one league at RB2, but benching R.Freeman (for Murray) at RB2 because he’s underperformed AND has a bad matchup. 

4. If a peripheral player is hurt that impacts my player’s potential productivity. Ex: if a key OL goes down, or a QB if I have the WR/TE.

So “go with your gut” is a bit of a misnomer - sure, we all have gut-checks on the weekly...but you gotta evaluate the data too, to form a gut feeling. 

Otherwise you’re just throwing darts every week. 

This makes a lot of sense. How we define 'gut' can vary from person to person. I agree the data needs to be taken into account, and though at that point I'd no longer call it going with ones gut, I can see how another might think this falls within that terminology.

Whether you use your own personal rankings or those of others, I would think and hope these factors are being accounted for. 

 

[rockaction]

I try not to be a slave to rankings, but I don't use my gut. I'll consider game script, matchups, etc. Rarely do I have dreams of eighty yard touchdowns. I think I did that when I first started, and even though I did well in lineup leagues, now I do really well. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Oh, and 5. Always do the opposite of what @Soulfly3 recommends.

 

[Bayhawks]

So you claimed Bernard but you’ve got Latavius Murray? 

I’d flip a coin, but Murray is the better start. 

No, not a RB; it’s one of the streamable positions, do not a major factor.  Just curious if there are any “tips” about using your gut.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

No, not a RB; it’s one of the streamable positions, do not a major factor.  Just curious if there are any “tips” about using your gut.

Yes: fill it with tacos. 

Mmmmmmm, tacos. 

 

[NYRAGE]

Not naming names because I don’t want this to be a asst coach topic, but I picked up a player off WW to play this week.  After WW moves, one of my current players stands to get more work (b/c of an injury to one of his teammates).  Now I’m second-guessing my gut.  When do you ignore rankings, matchups, etc & “go with your gut?”

Sounds like your gut is telling you that you like your original guy better than your ww guy now that he has more work/opportunities. Always go with your gut unless you're trying to be too cute. 

I had a Jets fan ask me to talk him out of playing Enunwa over K. Allen this week. That's an example of being too cute. Enunwa over your second or third WR, sure. Enunwa over a top 10 WR whenever he's healthy? Too cute. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Oh, and 5. Always do the opposite of what @Soulfly3 recommends.

funny, I posted a thread about "Rank My Team" and going with my gut... and ppl poo-poo'd on my team.

That team is 2-0, with a MASSIVE pts for advantage against the rest of the league. (yes, I know it's only week 2, but we're just going into week 3, not much I can do about that)

Epitomizes the "trust your gut" methodology and not being a slave to poorly made consensus rankings, group think and especially "value based drafting"

The Thread

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

funny, I posted a thread about "Rank My Team" and going with my gut... and ppl poo-poo'd on my team.

That team is 2-0, with a MASSIVE pts for advantage against the rest of the league. (yes, I know it's only week 2, but we're just going into week 3, not much I can do about that)

Epitomizes the "trust your gut" methodology and not being a slave to poorly made consensus rankings, group think and especially "value based drafting"

The Thread

Agree completely. 

Taking Tyreek Hill at 2.12 when I drafted was considered 6-8 picks early, especially for PPR.

Mike Evans 3.01 was considered a huge risk because groupthink said he was inefficient with his Targets & inconsistent web TDs year to year. 

My gut told me Hill was my best target in a league that gives 5 points at 100+ yards. 

My gut told me Mike Evans passed the eye test & continued to pass the eye test, and that he was being underrated coming off a down season. 

Both of those required evaluation based on both observation (Hil’s target rich preseason, Evans looking like Evans) & analyzing the stats - but in the moment there were 6 players I would have liked at 2.12/3.01 - my gut said to go with those two, rankings be damned. 

Then again, my gut told me to draft Royce Freeman over Carlos Hyde, despite being a Hyde fan. I always fall for the sexy rookie RB in Denver. Lucy swore she wouldn’t pull the football away again.  

 

[rockaction]

Agree completely. 

Taking Tyreek Hill at 2.12 when I drafted was considered 6-8 picks early, especially for PPR.

Mike Evans 3.01 was considered a huge risk because groupthink said he was inefficient with his Targets & inconsistent web TDs year to year. 

My gut told me Hill was my best target in a league that gives 5 points at 100+ yards. 

My gut told me Mike Evans passed the eye test & continued to pass the eye test, and that he was being underrated coming off a down season. 

Both of those required evaluation based on both observation (Hil’s target rich preseason, Evans looking like Evans) & analyzing the stats - but in the moment there were 6 players I would have liked at 2.12/3.01 - my gut said to go with those two, rankings be damned. 

Then again, my gut told me to draft Royce Freeman over Carlos Hyde, despite being a Hyde fan. I always fall for the sexy rookie RB in Denver. Lucy swore she wouldn’t pull the football away again.  

I think all of the players that passed your eye test passed mine, too, and that's no lie. Hill did. I wanted him over OBJ and I drafted consensus. I regret it. Evans is someone I'm unable to get a bead on. I don't watch much of the NFC South, and that's sort of where I do my best work -- watching the games. Every time I watch him, he's not using his targets, but he's always. so. damn. open. I love it. I love his size, his speed. 

And Hyde, and here's the kicker. The reason I love Hyde was watching him in SF under Harbaugh when Gore was still around. I drafted consensus, and Gore highly. "Holy ####," I thought after three carries. "Hyde's got his job." And sure enough, until Hyde got dinged a bit, he was challenging. Much like Kaep and Smith that year.  

So I don't trust my gut, but I trust my eyes a bit and then I trust consensus, scouts, football guys that have been doing it all their lives. 

So that's my two cents and I'd say value every piece of information you have, figure out what works best for you in rank ordering its importance, and then go from there. Trust your own strengths, admit your own weaknesses. That's how I do it.

To wit: The baseball thread has a thread that I totally disagree with, but love the thought process often of its creator (I say that in case he reads this). That said, I don't project or die. I watch, learn, and adapt to reality so that I can survive and advance. Roster building can't just be about raw projections, but a host of variables that we juggle, rank order, and then use to the best of our abilities. 

 

[matuski]

Not naming names because I don’t want this to be a asst coach topic, but I picked up a player off WW to play this week.  After WW moves, one of my current players stands to get more work (b/c of an injury to one of his teammates).  Now I’m second-guessing my gut.  When do you ignore rankings, matchups, etc & “go with your gut?”

If you go by rankings you are just going by someone else's "gut".

 

[Chaka]

I haven't looked at a ranking, FBGs or otherwise, in several years. Initially because of time now because my outcomes haven't changed and, frankly until I see @Joe Bryant add an annual (or :gasp: in season YTD) accuracy check article for his experts I refuse to believe their outcomes are superior to a blind dart throw. Speaking truth JB but you know I love you.

Ultimately experts (defined as people who managed to monetize Shark Pool posts) are also going with their guts. Might as well go with yours because it's more rewarding that way.

 

[Tanner9919]

always go by your gut.what else are you going by, CBS player rankings?   

you need to research things, check the PFF WR/DB chart to see if your WR has a positive matchup or a negative one, and to which degree ..they're not using opinion but stats and math. 

I also follow Vegas point spreads, o/u lines, etc. if you have a very high o/u I'm starting anyone i have in that game, kicker, WR what have you. vegas is almost never wrong and is always on the mark. for instance, http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml..things that pop out right off the bat are the Panthers giving 3 pts to Cincy - that's just a hometown benefit. they expect Cincy  to play well and score a lot, as identified by the 44.5 over. this game could be a shootout. Gio should be on FIRE in this one ( Coleman just torched Carolina for over 100 yards rushing on 16 carries or so right?) GB on the road at Redskins giving 3 with a 45.5 over. that screams to me that you should start any/ALL Packers, and jordan reid - A. Smith can't hit WR's he likes throwing to TE's instead. Ravens coming off last weeks debacle vs. Cincy are 5.5 home faves vs. Denver? somethings fishy here..you'll want to use your ravens in this one. they're probably going to cover and the 45.5 over is too good to ignore.you'll also want to use any/all Lions - with the 3rd highest o/u of the week and just a 7 pt spread, vegas is saying you're going to get a pretty solid performance from Detroit - albeit a loss - but the stats for fantasy players like Golladay should be there. Pit is -1.5 @ TB with the week's 2nd highest o/u at 54.WOW..that  looks like a game where fitz goes nuts , again..54 pt over?! MNF is going to be exciting this week! k.c. giving 6.5 against the niners with highest o/u of the week 55.5 0 is vegas saying that the niners are going to score a lot of pts in this one, win or lose.start breida,morris, etc. 

it's worked pretty well for me in the past 

also, set your lineup saturday night and never change it again. it's those last second changes, i.e, 12:57p, that ruin your fantasy games.

 

[Mongidig]

Trust but verify.

 

[IheartGuinness]

For me, rankings generally don't help very much. There's so much guesswork involved and I'd rather trust my own judgment. I do try to consider matchups as much as possible. To give you an example, this week I'm trying to decide who to start at flex from the following: Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders, and Will Fuller.

Looking at matchups, I'm concerned about starting Robinson because of Peterson. I'm also apprehensive about starting Cooper because of Xavien Howard. 

Ok, so that leaves Sanders and Fuller. Sanders has been pretty automatic so far this year. But my gut is telling me that Denver on the road playing in an early game on the East Coast might have some issues, especially against a decent defense. On the other hand, Fuller, when healthy, has shown a good connection with Watson. But I also have Hopkins, so if the Texans' passing game falters, I'm screwed.

What does my gut say? I'll probably stick with Fuller and ride the hot hand. But I say that knowing that I could check back in this thread tomorrow and have been completely wrong. But at least my decision was based on reason and logic and variables that made sense, not some arbitrary ranking system.

 

[Dismattle]

I play in a 2QB Big points League w/ IDP and many starting positions  Not so sure my post is very relevant  Guys like Elliot just sit in their starting position no matter anything but injury

On the bright side, it's not five minutes before kickoff!  Sure I get a few of those type calls right but not enough to kick myself even if it turns out not half bad  So anyway the first thing that comes to mind is considering if the expert knows who may not be playing on defense  Not so sure all of them really follow such details and/or make limited predictions  Whose hurt? Whose starting?  Chances are unless your WR is facing a player like Josh Norman that there just may be some seat of the pants type ranking that you should consider researching

Guess maybe what I'm saying is I almost always go w my gut but I do still read the experts take   Normally IF I see 4-5 catches for 60 yds!  It really only helps if they followed up with but it could be a goose egg today  OR  I'd expect maybe up too 100 yds or more is quite possible

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Not naming names because I don’t want this to be a asst coach topic, but I picked up a player off WW to play this week.  After WW moves, one of my current players stands to get more work (b/c of an injury to one of his teammates).  Now I’m second-guessing my gut.  When do you ignore rankings, matchups, etc & “go with your gut?”

I always make the final judgement call right before kickoff.

If I have a winning team that's winning, I don't mess with the formula. But I will go contrarian if I have to.

Like, people feel obligated to play their high round draft picks against tough matchups.

 

[Interseptopus]

Some people have no choice, their gut is so big they follow it everywhere they go. 

I follow mine after a big meal

 

[ratbast]

I think we always go with our gut. Injuries, matchups and skills all influence our perception. Your gut should be influenced by knowledge you’ve obtained. Going with Kelse over Hooper is not from your gut and neither is the reverse as you would be stupid. But picking between Wilson and Stafford or between Clement and LMurray are very influenced by info gathered and you’re going to choose one based on something that stands out to you. 

Have you ever noticed that when choosing 2 players that the last pertinent info you have obtained often influences your “gut” the most? I feel that’s the case often.

 

[Chaka]

I have a tough one like this today.

My gut is telling me to start Josh Gordan

My gut is also telling me not to start Josh Gordan

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have a tough one like this today.

My gut is telling me to start Josh Gordan

My gut is also telling me not to start Josh Gordan

Listen to your second gut. That dude’s a genius.