When Sharks Swim with Guppies (1 Viewer)

[jdoggydogg]

This was my favorite line in the piece:

Sharks assume they'll dominate the guppies, with their VBD and ADP and giant shark brains.

I played in a league with 11 guppies. Did it as a favor to a buddy. It's just not fun. It really isn't. One guy drafted Fred Lane -- a month after he died. The draft creeps along because an owner takes five minutes trying to decide between a backup QB who will never see the field and ANOTHER backup QB who will never see the field. I counted at least 15 instances when a guppy owner selected a player who had been drafted approximately ten rounds earlier. I counted at least 20 instances when a guppy owner asked out loud "So WHO is the kicker for ________?" "So WHO is the backup QB for ________?" Then they borrow each other's magazines, to ascertain exactly which three-month-old rag contained the latest information. Yes, I won the league.

No, I couldn't have been less excited about it.

I am in a league that has both sharks and guppies. One Raider fan drafted Sebastian Janikowski in the third round. We were laughing so hard, the walls almost fell down.

Most Raider fans aren't too bright.

Hey, I've been a fan since 1979, but you won't see me drafting Justin Fargas in the first round

 

[JimmyD]

I have a name for the type of draft most guppies lean toward:

The Light Bulb Draft.

Its basically the idea that an owner will draft guys they've had and did well for them or guys that had great years or guys that are being pimped by ESPN/CBSSportsline etc. Think about it this way, take a cheetsheet and ask your wife to speak up when she hears a name of someone she knows. Peyton check, Brady check, Bush check, Willie Parker pass, Reuben Droughns pass. The guppie is looking at a list of names and the light bulb turns on, boom there it is, the name he knows. He screams Tom Brady, why? Because he has to be better than taking Willie Parker or Reuben Droughns, right?

 

[The Jerk]

I have a name for the type of draft most guppies lean toward:The Light Bulb Draft.Its basically the idea that an owner will draft guys they've had and did well for them or guys that had great years or guys that are being pimped by ESPN/CBSSportsline etc. Think about it this way, take a cheetsheet and ask your wife to speak up when she hears a name of someone she knows. Peyton check, Brady check, Bush check, Willie Parker pass, Reuben Droughns pass. The guppie is looking at a list of names and the light bulb turns on, boom there it is, the name he knows. He screams Tom Brady, why? Because he has to be better than taking Willie Parker or Reuben Droughns, right?

Of course, many guppies use the Miller Lite Draft. Great taste, less thinking (and more bad picks).

 

[smcindoe]

Hey guys.

I didn't realize the article was even up until I saw this thread.

Thanks for the comments. Glad to hear people are (mostly) finding it useful.

 

[smcindoe]

Nice article and I largely agree with it and a lot of points in the follow up discussion here. One thing I am interested to know is whether the author's points are the result of any analysis of actual draft data (and knowing the individual participants of drafts so as to differentiate Sharks from Guppies) or if the piece is largely anecdotal and opinion-based.Anyone know for sure?

It's based on my personal experience in three leagues, including my first (when I was the guppy).I wrote the first version of this article three or four years ago. I found that I kept underperforming in my leagues (based on the amount of preperation I was putting into them) and I decided to try to figure out why. I went back over a few years of draft history which I'd held onto to look for patterns, and I found them. Over the years I've revised the article each season, tweaking it based on observation. For example, four years ago guppies had never heard of RB stud. Now they know it, they just don't take it as far as the sharks want to. That sort of thing.So it's mostly anecdotal and opinion-based as opposed to some sort of in-depth analysis, but it is based on several year's worth of personal draft data.

 

[Reagan]

I actually fare better in shark leagues than cross pollinated (some sharks and guppies) leagues. Part of that is that in leagues where everyone knows their stuff it's easier to tell what players will go where and Rudi Johnson is not going to fall into the 4th round. I've had times where studs fell by leaps and bounds and the other sharks had a field day picking up guys that should never have fallen that far (and they had two picks before I had another pick so they would get two gift picks).The other thing I found in guppies-playing-with-sharks leagues is that some of the trades that were made were just plain wrong. I remember a guppy trading Priest Holmes in his prime for a QB2, a WR3, and a bottom tier TE1. So basically this year's equivalent of Larry Johnson for Steve McNair, Joe Jurevicius, and Ben Troupe. Basically, a shark owner raped and defiled 2-3 of the guppies and ended up with a team of uber stud Pro Bowlers.I personally would never even OFFER someone that trade as it is majorly insulting, but I guess that's what it takes to win some of those leagues.

Confession time...my very first year playing FFL was like in '93 or something. pre-internet era when you relied on the magazines and books. I drafted Emmit Smith 1st (not bad), but he was in a protracted holdout that looked ugly. A shark in the league convinced me to trade Smith for 3 players that included a rookie Jerome Bettis and a couple of mediocre starters. His sold me on the fact that the combined average scoring that I was getting from these 3 starters was worth more per game than Emmit and Emmit was holding out for who knows how long. I took the bait, pissed off the other guys in the league, and Emmit reported about 1 week later and had a typical solid year that he always produced.Not exactly guppie draft strategy, but a deal I won't forget. I think my 1st 3 picks that year were Warren Moon, Emmit Smith and Michael Irvin. This guy ended up with like Emmit, Steve Young, and a pretty awesome team and won the league.I learned from that.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Not exactly guppie draft strategy, but a deal I won't forget. I think my 1st 3 picks that year were Warren Moon, Emmit Smith and Michael Irvin. This guy ended up with like Emmit, Steve Young, and a pretty awesome team and won the league.I learned from that.

Don't sweat it. On the Fox FF show, Warren Moon picked Brett Favre IN THE FIRST ROUND LAST YEAR.

 

[[icon]]

My work money leaugue has this one older guy who picks Farve every yaer in the first round because "then you don't have to worry about QB anymore".

I've won this league 2 out of 3 years (3rd in the 2nd year) by recognizing a lot of the stuff this article says. We play in a PPR league as well... many folks miss that so I have taken advantage by going RB/WR/WR/RB the last couple of years. Last year my draft went:

LT2 / CJ / HOLT./ SJAX / LJ / HEAP... grabbed Thomas Jones later too...

Another couple tips:

• Steal Handcuffs - These guys will trade their stud WRs away at the first sign of a problem with thier stud RB.

• Get 2 extra RBs (I usually draft 5). Invariably some teams will underdraft at RB and are one injury or underperformance away from overpaying you for one of the few "available" backs in the league.

 

[The Jerk]

' date='Aug 9 2006, 05:55 PM' post='5303286']My work money leaugue has this one older guy who picks Farve every yaer in the first round because "then you don't have to worry about QB anymore". I've won this league 2 out of 3 years (3rd in the 2nd year) by recognizing a lot of the stuff this article says. We play in a PPR league as well... many folks miss that so I have taken advantage by going RB/WR/WR/RB the last couple of years. Last year my draft went:LT2 / CJ / HOLT./ SJAX / LJ / HEAP... grabbed Thomas Jones later too... Another couple tips:• Steal Handcuffs - These guys will trade their stud WRs away at the first sign of a problem with thier stud RB.• Get 2 extra RBs (I usually draft 5). Invariably some teams will underdraft at RB and are one injury or underperformance away from overpaying you for one of the few "available" backs in the league.

Agree with the steal handcuffs.As for the extra RBs, it depends on your league. Some guppy leagues have an abnormal fear of trading. Those extra RBs won't help in those leagues. If trading is common, then it's good strategy because you have both RB depth and available trade bait.

 

[JimmyD]

' date='Aug 9 2006, 05:55 PM' post='5303286']My work money leaugue has this one older guy who picks Farve every yaer in the first round because "then you don't have to worry about QB anymore". I've won this league 2 out of 3 years (3rd in the 2nd year) by recognizing a lot of the stuff this article says. We play in a PPR league as well... many folks miss that so I have taken advantage by going RB/WR/WR/RB the last couple of years. Last year my draft went:LT2 / CJ / HOLT./ SJAX / LJ / HEAP... grabbed Thomas Jones later too... Another couple tips:• Steal Handcuffs - These guys will trade their stud WRs away at the first sign of a problem with thier stud RB.• Get 2 extra RBs (I usually draft 5). Invariably some teams will underdraft at RB and are one injury or underperformance away from overpaying you for one of the few "available" backs in the league.

Agree with the steal handcuffs.As for the extra RBs, it depends on your league. Some guppy leagues have an abnormal fear of trading. Those extra RBs won't help in those leagues. If trading is common, then it's good strategy because you have both RB depth and available trade bait.

Agree with the handcuffs as they can be had very late in the draft.Also, guppies are very tough to deal with. Not sure why but they tend to lean on their draft even after its puked up on them. So the idea of drafting depth in hopes of trading is dangerous as they may sit on starting Alstott in lieu of trading for Curtis Martin.

 

[The Jerk]

' date='Aug 9 2006, 05:55 PM' post='5303286']Another couple tips:• Steal Handcuffs - These guys will trade their stud WRs away at the first sign of a problem with thier stud RB.• Get 2 extra RBs (I usually draft 5). Invariably some teams will underdraft at RB and are one injury or underperformance away from overpaying you for one of the few "available" backs in the league.

Agree with the steal handcuffs.As for the extra RBs, it depends on your league. Some guppy leagues have an abnormal fear of trading. Those extra RBs won't help in those leagues. If trading is common, then it's good strategy because you have both RB depth and available trade bait.

Agree with the handcuffs as they can be had very late in the draft.Also, guppies are very tough to deal with. Not sure why but they tend to lean on their draft even after its puked up on them. So the idea of drafting depth in hopes of trading is dangerous as they may sit on starting Alstott in lieu of trading for Curtis Martin.

I've seen three reasons for the lack of trading.1. People whose perception of value is way off. In other words, the same (bad) reason they drafted a player is the same reason they're keeping him. They can't admit they were wrong and/or are slower to adjust to the new reality.2. They expect to make out handsomely on every deal. Perhaps they think they are so much more clever than everyone else.3. They are more afraid of the player they gave up getting hot than they are of being improved by adding a player they need. So even if they are deep at RB and thin at WR, they don't want the RB they have on their bench exploding to lead someone else to a championship.

 

[Deadzone21]

Happend to me last year.Drafted Priest,,Barber,,Westbrook,,Larry Johnson,,,Thomas Jones,,Willie Parker. My best receiver was Drew Bennent. I was putting trade offers out every week. Finally traded Barber for Holt and Thomas Jones for Harrison. Won the league. !!!

I was thinking the same thing while reading through this thread. I've found myself with 4-5 good RB but fairly week in WRs and QBs the last couple of seasons. Last year I was able to get Peyton Manning later for the 2nd half of the season.When this scenario happens, I think they'll soon realize the value of RBs especially during bye weeks.

 

[Draftnik]

Nice article and I largely agree with it and a lot of points in the follow up discussion here. One thing I am interested to know is whether the author's points are the result of any analysis of actual draft data (and knowing the individual participants of drafts so as to differentiate Sharks from Guppies) or if the piece is largely anecdotal and opinion-based.Anyone know for sure?

It's based on my personal experience in three leagues, including my first (when I was the guppy).I wrote the first version of this article three or four years ago. I found that I kept underperforming in my leagues (based on the amount of preperation I was putting into them) and I decided to try to figure out why. I went back over a few years of draft history which I'd held onto to look for patterns, and I found them. Over the years I've revised the article each season, tweaking it based on observation. For example, four years ago guppies had never heard of RB stud. Now they know it, they just don't take it as far as the sharks want to. That sort of thing.So it's mostly anecdotal and opinion-based as opposed to some sort of in-depth analysis, but it is based on several year's worth of personal draft data.

Cool and thanks. Like I said, I think the article largely rings true and is insightful. Definitely a good choice by the FBG staff to select from among all the freelance submissions.

 

[strattkatt]

Ten Tips for Drafting in With Guppies by Sean McIndoe is another great reason to keep forking out the annual dues for my FBG subscription. These freelance articles for the most part offer knowledge not found in the rags on the newsstand and offer unique perspectives outside that found in the staff articles. Thanks Sean.

 

[videoguy505]

Article's great. And like was said in this thread, trading with guppies is sometimes impossible. You've got a solid RB2 as your RB5, he never sees your starting lineup behind S Alexander, R Johnson, S Jackson, and C Williams. But he's unmovable. A guppy sees a trade offer for his every-week WR2 and he panics. He's got no WR3 to replace him with. And he's got dead weight in backups and busts on his bench, guys like the third WR on the Niners. Why trade when you can just drop the dead weight guy and pick up the third-down back for his favorite team and plug his RB hole that way?

 

[Musesboy]

Very nice article

I am currently in a league that is a mix of sharks and guppies. One guy took Brady and Bulger by round five.

I picked at three in a 12 team league and went LT, Holt, Randy, J Jones, D Jax, Crumpler, Plummer. You definitely have to let the draft come to you in these situations.

 

[The Jerk]

I am currently in a league that is a mix of sharks and guppies. One guy took Brady and Bulger by round five.I picked at three in a 12 team league and went LT, Holt, Randy, J Jones, D Jax, Crumpler, Plummer. You definitely have to let the draft come to you in these situations.

Well said. I'm all for draft preparation and analysis. Too much is never enough. But in these leagues, you have to be willing to roll along with the flow of the draft. It's not as hard for me as my initial years were spent exclusively in this kind of league. However, it's probably quite an adjustment to confront this style of league after being in mostly shark leagues. It's an art of finding a balance between using your shark knowledge and insights and applying the old adage "When in Rome..."

 

[jdoggydogg]

I've seen three reasons for the lack of trading.1. People whose perception of value is way off. In other words, the same (bad) reason they drafted a player is the same reason they're keeping him. They can't admit they were wrong and/or are slower to adjust to the new reality.2. They expect to make out handsomely on every deal. Perhaps they think they are so much more clever than everyone else.3. They are more afraid of the player they gave up getting hot than they are of being improved by adding a player they need. So even if they are deep at RB and thin at WR, they don't want the RB they have on their bench exploding to lead someone else to a championship.

Many of the owners in my league aren't willing to trade. It's not just the guppies. I think people are paranoid that they are letting a potential star go.

 

[Mario Kart]

I've seen three reasons for the lack of trading.1. People whose perception of value is way off. In other words, the same (bad) reason they drafted a player is the same reason they're keeping him. They can't admit they were wrong and/or are slower to adjust to the new reality.2. They expect to make out handsomely on every deal. Perhaps they think they are so much more clever than everyone else.3. They are more afraid of the player they gave up getting hot than they are of being improved by adding a player they need. So even if they are deep at RB and thin at WR, they don't want the RB they have on their bench exploding to lead someone else to a championship.

Many of the owners in my league aren't willing to trade. It's not just the guppies. I think people are paranoid that they are letting a potential star go.

If other people are afraid of getting rid of a star who has not done anything in the season yet... why are you trying to trade for him? Seems hypocritical to say an owner does not want to trade someone because he has not produced yet when someone is trying to trade for him hoping he does produce after the trade. No?

 

[The Jerk]

I've seen three reasons for the lack of trading.1. People whose perception of value is way off. In other words, the same (bad) reason they drafted a player is the same reason they're keeping him. They can't admit they were wrong and/or are slower to adjust to the new reality.2. They expect to make out handsomely on every deal. Perhaps they think they are so much more clever than everyone else.3. They are more afraid of the player they gave up getting hot than they are of being improved by adding a player they need. So even if they are deep at RB and thin at WR, they don't want the RB they have on their bench exploding to lead someone else to a championship.

Many of the owners in my league aren't willing to trade. It's not just the guppies. I think people are paranoid that they are letting a potential star go.

If other people are afraid of getting rid of a star who has not done anything in the season yet... why are you trying to trade for him? Seems hypocritical to say an owner does not want to trade someone because he has not produced yet when someone is trying to trade for him hoping he does produce after the trade. No?

The whole point is that it DOESN'T make sense. That's why he used the word paranoid and I earlier called it "an abnormal fear of trading." Here's one scenario for you: Player X stinks out the joint for the first five weeks of the season. His owner gets fed up with him and trades him. Starting Week 7 or 8, Player X starts producing. This is the nightmare scenario, the double whammy. It's bad enough you had this guy hurting your team the first part of the season. Now as soon as you trade him, he's suddenly an All-Pro. Frankly, it's probably not just guppies who can suffer this affliction. However, the shark probably understands that while this can happen, it happens much more infrequently than the guppy thinks. Call it a fantasy football urban legend.

 

[Mario Kart]

The whole point is that it DOESN'T make sense. That's why he used the word paranoid and I earlier called it "an abnormal fear of trading." Here's one scenario for you: Player X stinks out the joint for the first five weeks of the season. His owner gets fed up with him and trades him. Starting Week 7 or 8, Player X starts producing. This is the nightmare scenario, the double whammy. It's bad enough you had this guy hurting your team the first part of the season. Now as soon as you trade him, he's suddenly an All-Pro. Frankly, it's probably not just guppies who can suffer this affliction. However, the shark probably understands that while this can happen, it happens much more infrequently than the guppy thinks. Call it a fantasy football urban legend.

I understand each scenario but it is also then unfair to say that the "guppie" does not know anything about football or is paranoid simply because he will not trade that one player. Furthermore, it is unfair to call someone a "shark" because they sometimes make those trades that win them the championship. The article linked is actually quite a contradiction. The real "shark", and I do not like that term, should be able to adjust to the drafting ability right away instead of after round 3. With a league full of "guppies" it is actually the supposed "shark" who is the guppie. In this form the so-called "shark" is unmatched and should have known this going in.

 

[smcindoe]

As for the extra RBs, it depends on your league. Some guppy leagues have an abnormal fear of trading. Those extra RBs won't help in those leagues. If trading is common, then it's good strategy because you have both RB depth and available trade bait.

That's an excellent point.To take it further, even if you do eventually manage to trade your RB depth, you need to accept that there's a decent chance you'll have a very slow start to the season. You may have five of the top 20 RBs on your roster, but don't be shocked when your squad (that's starting Aaron Brooks, Derrick Mason and Roy Williams) is 1-3. You really have to be able to hold your water and think long-term.

(The funny part is that when this happens, the guppies will be making fun of you. "Hey last place, how are all those running backs doing on your bench? Just a thought, but you might want to think about drafting a QB next time. Better luck next year!")

 

[Genester]

This is an excellent article.

I've actually seen the OPPOSITE effect in some of my cross-pollinated leagues. The guppies have heard of the stud RB approach. They don't get why it is important, but they've been around enough to know they need to grab RBs fast. This results in LOTS of RBs flying off the board. I mean by the end of round 4 last year, there wasn't a RB starter left in a 12-team league. This often results in the WR position being grossly overlooked, especially after the big name guys (Moss, Owens last year) are gone. I ended up with Torry Holt in round 3 in one of my leagues... Yes, my RB2 stunk, but I more than made up for it in WR and even QB talent.

 

[The Jerk]

The whole point is that it DOESN'T make sense. That's why he used the word paranoid and I earlier called it "an abnormal fear of trading." Here's one scenario for you: Player X stinks out the joint for the first five weeks of the season. His owner gets fed up with him and trades him. Starting Week 7 or 8, Player X starts producing. This is the nightmare scenario, the double whammy. It's bad enough you had this guy hurting your team the first part of the season. Now as soon as you trade him, he's suddenly an All-Pro. Frankly, it's probably not just guppies who can suffer this affliction. However, the shark probably understands that while this can happen, it happens much more infrequently than the guppy thinks. Call it a fantasy football urban legend.

I understand each scenario but it is also then unfair to say that the "guppie" does not know anything about football or is paranoid simply because he will not trade that one player. Furthermore, it is unfair to call someone a "shark" because they sometimes make those trades that win them the championship. The article linked is actually quite a contradiction. The real "shark", and I do not like that term, should be able to adjust to the drafting ability right away instead of after round 3. With a league full of "guppies" it is actually the supposed "shark" who is the guppie. In this form the so-called "shark" is unmatched and should have known this going in.

I agree to disliking the terms shark and guppie, but just about everyone understands what is meant by each term. Refer back to the article to see that to his credit, the author clearly stated that the guppies are just as smart, but not as obsessed with FF minutia and strategy. Perhaps "self-taught" applies to some degree.Plus, no matter how much information one compiles about FF, being at an experience deficit in a given league can be a significant obstacle to success. In one league last year, I was unprepared for an extended early run on WR and defenses drafted far earlier than I've ever seen before. This year, I won't be surprised as I now understand the culture of this league.I don't see the contradiction you indicate. I also don't think it's realistic for any player to just "know" the draft tendencies of a given league. The round 3 you stated is far earlier than I believe possible. Perhaps you are suggesting that the shark should have done some league reconnaissance. Possible, but for the sake of argument I'll say that this shark was called by his buddy 5 minutes before the draft.

 

[The Jerk]

PsychKev,

I just realized that part of your post might be hinting that it is arrogant to call the players "shark" and "guppy" -- if so I agree, in fact it also is somewhat inaccurate. However, I maintain that these terms are more convenient than "experienced, well-read strategically-versed FF veteran" vs. "one league, casual mostly NFL fan in a local, buddy league" (at least to me).

 

[jdoggydogg]

The whole point is that it DOESN'T make sense. That's why he used the word paranoid and I earlier called it "an abnormal fear of trading." Here's one scenario for you: Player X stinks out the joint for the first five weeks of the season. His owner gets fed up with him and trades him. Starting Week 7 or 8, Player X starts producing. This is the nightmare scenario, the double whammy. It's bad enough you had this guy hurting your team the first part of the season. Now as soon as you trade him, he's suddenly an All-Pro. Frankly, it's probably not just guppies who can suffer this affliction. However, the shark probably understands that while this can happen, it happens much more infrequently than the guppy thinks. Call it a fantasy football urban legend.

I understand each scenario but it is also then unfair to say that the "guppie" does not know anything about football or is paranoid simply because he will not trade that one player. Furthermore, it is unfair to call someone a "shark" because they sometimes make those trades that win them the championship. The article linked is actually quite a contradiction. The real "shark", and I do not like that term, should be able to adjust to the drafting ability right away instead of after round 3. With a league full of "guppies" it is actually the supposed "shark" who is the guppie. In this form the so-called "shark" is unmatched and should have known this going in.

To answer your points:- I didn't say that guppies don't know anything about football. I said that it isn't true that guppies always know as much about FB as sharks do. There are guppies in FF that are in the hall of fame (see Warren Moon) and there are guppies that only pay attention to the star players. - Regarding trades, my big money league is a salary cap league. Some of the owners rarely (or never) make trades. The exact players aren't really that important to make my point. My point is that paralysis and stagnation in a dynasty league don't make any sense.- I don't even care about the terms "guppie" and "shark." And I don't use the term guppie pegoritively. I only use it as a point of reference.

 

[Mario Kart]

The whole point is that it DOESN'T make sense. That's why he used the word paranoid and I earlier called it "an abnormal fear of trading." Here's one scenario for you: Player X stinks out the joint for the first five weeks of the season. His owner gets fed up with him and trades him. Starting Week 7 or 8, Player X starts producing. This is the nightmare scenario, the double whammy. It's bad enough you had this guy hurting your team the first part of the season. Now as soon as you trade him, he's suddenly an All-Pro. Frankly, it's probably not just guppies who can suffer this affliction. However, the shark probably understands that while this can happen, it happens much more infrequently than the guppy thinks. Call it a fantasy football urban legend.

I understand each scenario but it is also then unfair to say that the "guppie" does not know anything about football or is paranoid simply because he will not trade that one player. Furthermore, it is unfair to call someone a "shark" because they sometimes make those trades that win them the championship. The article linked is actually quite a contradiction. The real "shark", and I do not like that term, should be able to adjust to the drafting ability right away instead of after round 3. With a league full of "guppies" it is actually the supposed "shark" who is the guppie. In this form the so-called "shark" is unmatched and should have known this going in.

To answer your points:- I didn't say that guppies don't know anything about football. I said that it isn't true that guppies always know as much about FB as sharks do. There are guppies in FF that are in the hall of fame (see Warren Moon) and there are guppies that only pay attention to the star players. - Regarding trades, my big money league is a salary cap league. Some of the owners rarely (or never) make trades. The exact players aren't really that important to make my point. My point is that paralysis and stagnation in a dynasty league don't make any sense.- I don't even care about the terms "guppie" and "shark." And I don't use the term guppie pegoritively. I only use it as a point of reference.

Que?

 

[Dickie Dunn]

I would almost always rather be in a league where the a.) scoring system, and b.) varying tendencies of the players make it unpredictable to a certain extent. Much better than trying to figure out which 3 RBs I'm going to get based on the luck of the draw of draft position.

For example, I'm drafting in a keeper league later this month that will have at least two new owners (whom I have never met). Now, I have a decent idea who might be available when my draft position comes up. But I'm drafting behind both of these new owners in the first round, so I just don't know. To some that might be maddening, but therein lies the challenge for me. Makes it much more interesting. As it said in the article, "let the draft come to you".

 

[jdoggydogg]

The whole point is that it DOESN'T make sense. That's why he used the word paranoid and I earlier called it "an abnormal fear of trading." Here's one scenario for you: Player X stinks out the joint for the first five weeks of the season. His owner gets fed up with him and trades him. Starting Week 7 or 8, Player X starts producing. This is the nightmare scenario, the double whammy. It's bad enough you had this guy hurting your team the first part of the season. Now as soon as you trade him, he's suddenly an All-Pro. Frankly, it's probably not just guppies who can suffer this affliction. However, the shark probably understands that while this can happen, it happens much more infrequently than the guppy thinks. Call it a fantasy football urban legend.

I understand each scenario but it is also then unfair to say that the "guppie" does not know anything about football or is paranoid simply because he will not trade that one player. Furthermore, it is unfair to call someone a "shark" because they sometimes make those trades that win them the championship. The article linked is actually quite a contradiction. The real "shark", and I do not like that term, should be able to adjust to the drafting ability right away instead of after round 3. With a league full of "guppies" it is actually the supposed "shark" who is the guppie. In this form the so-called "shark" is unmatched and should have known this going in.

To answer your points:- I didn't say that guppies don't know anything about football. I said that it isn't true that guppies always know as much about FB as sharks do. There are guppies in FF that are in the hall of fame (see Warren Moon) and there are guppies that only pay attention to the star players. - Regarding trades, my big money league is a salary cap league. Some of the owners rarely (or never) make trades. The exact players aren't really that important to make my point. My point is that paralysis and stagnation in a dynasty league don't make any sense.- I don't even care about the terms "guppie" and "shark." And I don't use the term guppie pegoritively. I only use it as a point of reference.

Que?

You're making what for dinner?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Very good article, Sean, and pretty on-the-mark, as far as my experience goes.

It tickles me, however, that we have this article referenced on the same board where we recently had a million-page thread on "players I won't pick again because they burned me in the past" - as "guppy" a way to think as there is (along with "I won't ever draft that guy - he's a jerk").

Anyway, this is a good discussion. And I don't really like the terms "shark" & "guppy" either (& understand that many of you are just using it for a point of reference). I really think there's lots to be learned in some of the types of leagues mentioned in this thread. The main being that they can be refreshing. Draft value, after all, is set by each league - not by FF websites or a bunch of people on a MB. I think it's great that these "guppy" leagues have drafts that are unpredictable - to me, it beats the hell out of snoozefests where 18 RBs go in the first 24 picks. Whether guys drafting Favre or Big Ben or Reggie Bush in the first round are doing the "right" thing is almost immaterial. They're having fun - the reason why I think most of us got into FF in the first place.

 

[barndog]

Agree with Uruk-Hai that pub leagues are fresh, always unpredictable, and fun (long as you don't get a belligerent stalker).

One point I don't think has been made yet, is non-sharks are more likely to be swayed by the default rankings of a particular host. So the degree to which our shark rankings differ from the defaults represent opportunities to get value.

 

[smcindoe]

Re: "shark" vs "guppy".

I hate those terms. No, let me break out some typography here... I hate those terms.

When I wrote the first version of this article, years ago, I refused to use the terms because I thought they were just... sad. I think I used terms like "experienced" vs. "casual". But the article wasn't accepted, and I think at least part of that had to do with the fact that I was spending time dancing around the terms instead of making my actual points.

So the next year I abandoned the crusade, used the terms that everyone else uses, and I think the article is better for it. Doesn't mean I like it, though.

 

[TheBigHouse]

I first read this article two years ago the day AFTER my guppy redraft league, and it was like he had been sitting there writing the article at my draft. Every point he made pretty much happened verbatim (the one that killed me was all these owners taking their 2nd QB by the 5th round), and I had ended up with a lineup I hated. What it forced me to do was become a trading fiend to get my team up to snuff. I've never traded that much in any league as I did that year.

Last year I re-read the article the day before my draft and was better prepared for what actually occured on draft day - I was able to stay ahead of the trends instead of being waylaid by them

 

[jdoggydogg]

Very good article, Sean, and pretty on-the-mark, as far as my experience goes.It tickles me, however, that we have this article referenced on the same board where we recently had a million-page thread on "players I won't pick again because they burned me in the past" - as "guppy" a way to think as there is (along with "I won't ever draft that guy - he's a jerk").

There isn't a player in the NFL I wouldn't pick if he's available at a good price. ( Ok, well, maybe I'll pass on Onterrio Smith no matter what round it is )

 

[Wooderson]

Very good read.

One question I had regarding auction leagues. It seem that some of the guppies will pick out a shak to "copy". What I mean by this is that I will bid on a player and they will bid $1 more. Just because the think he has to be good that is why your I am bidding on him.

Now I know I can turn this around on them by bidding up a player I don't care for. But there is always the chance of getting stuck with that player.

It just seems I have a tought time bringing home the guys I want late in the auction. Like when I am try to get my last player for $3 and a guy that would have no intrest will spend his last $4 on him just because he thinks he is the one to get cause I bid on him.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Very good read.One question I had regarding auction leagues. It seem that some of the guppies will pick out a shak to "copy". What I mean by this is that I will bid on a player and they will bid $1 more. Just because the think he has to be good that is why your I am bidding on him.Now I know I can turn this around on them by bidding up a player I don't care for. But there is always the chance of getting stuck with that player.It just seems I have a tought time bringing home the guys I want late in the auction. Like when I am try to get my last player for $3 and a guy that would have no intrest will spend his last $4 on him just because he thinks he is the one to get cause I bid on him.

Had this happen in one of my leagues last year. Guy just kept bidding up on players -- spending big money on a second QB when he already had a stud, more than $1 on a K or D. It seemed to be happening more often to one particular owner and he was getting pissed. But hey, that's the territory. Just deal with it, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[mr blond]

When trading with guppies in a couple of my leagues I'll hear, "I'll trade you backup for backup, Rueben Droughns for Gus Ferrotte." Because Droughns is my 5th RB equal value is perceived as another backup at a different position.

 

[smcindoe]

When trading with guppies in a couple of my leagues I'll hear, "I'll trade you backup for backup, Rueben Droughns for Gus Ferrotte." Because Droughns is my 5th RB equal value is perceived as another backup at a different position.

Yes... and they'll also rely on the round a player was picked in."Why would I give you Culpepper for Droughs? I drafted him in the third round, I'm not trading him for your sixth rounder!"

 

[ipljeff]

I think it's the guppie league where you can wait for RB talent. Seems like QBs, WRs, and TEs all go earlier than they should. And low and behold Chester Taylor or Kevin Jones is still on the board in the 5th rd.Guppies tend to fill in their lineup. So, you can almost count on RBs 18-24 being there in the 4-6 rds.

After reading this article I looked back at last years draft and every single person had filled their starting lineups completely before drafting any backups. WOW. Obviously this is a guppy league and I was one last year as well. Other than looking for RBs in rounds 4-6 what other strategies could I use to take advantage of this tendency?

 

[ipljeff]

bumpity

 

[Hawthorne]

Can anyone really consider themselves "sharks", if they're having trouble adjusting their draft strategy on the fly to some of the unexpected things that "guppies" do?

One season, okay. But if you're losing out multiple years in a row to the same group of "guppies", maybe you're just not as good as you think you are.

 

[mr blond]

Can anyone really consider themselves "sharks", if they're having trouble adjusting their draft strategy on the fly to some of the unexpected things that "guppies" do?One season, okay. But if you're losing out multiple years in a row to the same group of "guppies", maybe you're just not as good as you think you are.

I don't consider myself a "shark" or the others in my league "guppies," and i don't think that is the key point to the article or this thread. If you study and prepare using "shark" sites and info, you need to remember that not everyone does or wants to. This article and thread is just a reminder of that.

 

[The Jerk]

Can anyone really consider themselves "sharks", if they're having trouble adjusting their draft strategy on the fly to some of the unexpected things that "guppies" do?One season, okay. But if you're losing out multiple years in a row to the same group of "guppies", maybe you're just not as good as you think you are.

I don't consider myself a "shark" or the others in my league "guppies," and i don't think that is the key point to the article or this thread. If you study and prepare using "shark" sites and info, you need to remember that not everyone does or wants to. This article and thread is just a reminder of that.

As this thread has progressed, the "guppies" term has become more and more pejorative in its usage. The original article and several of the initial posts made a point to compliment this class of FF players as being just as intelligent but willing to think differently from "sharks" due to any number of factors: not interested in studying the game as obsessively as Shark Pool members, outside of the box thinking, perhaps more of an NFL fan than a FF enthusiast, etc.It's probably better to consider this type of FF player and/or league as "maverick" or "unconventional" rather than "guppy" but "guppy" has become the de facto description for those who don't obsess over every detail concerning FF.

 

[The Jerk]

Can anyone really consider themselves "sharks", if they're having trouble adjusting their draft strategy on the fly to some of the unexpected things that "guppies" do?One season, okay. But if you're losing out multiple years in a row to the same group of "guppies", maybe you're just not as good as you think you are.

Welcome to FBGs! You may want to read the entire thread again to see that there's a lot more going on here than the situation you described. If you're a subscriber, you can read the article, too. Perhaps you already have. In any case, it's never a bad idea to refresh your thinking and remember that the FF world is fairly diverse. That diversity can be an obstacle to FF success if you find yourself on the other side of conventional wisdom in a given league.

 

[Hawthorne]

As this thread has progressed, the "guppies" term has become more and more pejorative in its usage.

Yes, this increasingly insulting attitude towards "guppies" is what I was referring to in my original post. I did read the article (I've been a Footballguys subscriber for 4 years, but just created an account today just to reply to this particular thread).I agree with the article, but I think a better point would be to not even think about whether anyone is a "guppy" or "shark", but just try to know your other league owners and their tendencies and to be able to adjust your draft strategy on the fly.

 

[The Jerk]

As this thread has progressed, the "guppies" term has become more and more pejorative in its usage.

Yes, this increasingly insulting attitude towards "guppies" is what I was referring to in my original post. I did read the article (I've been a Footballguys subscriber for 4 years, but just created an account today just to reply to this particular thread).I agree with the article, but I think a better point would be to not even think about whether anyone is a "guppy" or "shark", but just try to know your other league owners and their tendencies and to be able to adjust your draft strategy on the fly.

I agree with you. Based on what goes on in these forums, I spend much more time pondering draft tendencies of my fellow owners and the collective tendencies of each league than others who post here.The author responds in the thread that this was his original intent, but the article was not accepted in part (he believes) because in trying to be more generic, the article lost some of its punch.

 

[fightingillini]

Nice article and I largely agree with it and a lot of points in the follow up discussion here. One thing I am interested to know is whether the author's points are the result of any analysis of actual draft data (and knowing the individual participants of drafts so as to differentiate Sharks from Guppies) or if the piece is largely anecdotal and opinion-based.Anyone know for sure?

It's based on my personal experience in three leagues, including my first (when I was the guppy).I wrote the first version of this article three or four years ago. I found that I kept underperforming in my leagues (based on the amount of preperation I was putting into them) and I decided to try to figure out why. I went back over a few years of draft history which I'd held onto to look for patterns, and I found them. Over the years I've revised the article each season, tweaking it based on observation. For example, four years ago guppies had never heard of RB stud. Now they know it, they just don't take it as far as the sharks want to. That sort of thing.So it's mostly anecdotal and opinion-based as opposed to some sort of in-depth analysis, but it is based on several year's worth of personal draft data.

Dude, ONE EXCELLENT ARTICLE! ......the best freelance article that I have read. The one thing that I see from guppies is their need to fill out their starting lineup before acquiring depth. This is the most important piece of info, since us sharks track all picks, we can be very sure what position the guppy will draft next.My first year playing FF? I drafted Brett Favre in the 1st round, and didn't take my first RB until Round 4. Did everything that a guppy does. God bless Emmitt Smith falling to the 4th round that year......I ended up winning the league as a rookie.In summary, learn how each leaguemate drafts. And formulate your strategy from that.

 

[Bristol]

Anyone have any guppy drafts this year? I just had one last night. Defenses were flying off the board in the second round. Players buried on my list were taken very early.

The article that was posted is 100% dead on. If you are drafting with guppies, make sure you study it to a tee. The only position that I am unhappy with is QB, but Smith has upside. Here is my team (had the #5 pick):

QB

E. Manning (12th round)

A. Smith (11th Round)

RB

S. Jackson (1st round)

C. Benson (5th Round)

M. Jones-Drew (6th Round)

A. Green (9th Round)

J. Lewis (10th Round)

WR

S. Smith (2nd round)

M. Harrison (3rd Round)

L. Evans (7th Round)

Calvin Johnson (8th Round)

D. Hackett (13th Round)

TE

A. Gates (4th Round)

K

S. Gostkowski (14th Round)

DEF

Vikings (15th Round)

As you can see, you CAN wait on running back talent. There were too many head scratching picks made in this 10 team league. Again, read the article and live it in guppy leagues.

 

[NinerK]

I read about half way through the first page before realizing this was a 2006 thread.

 

[Bristol]

I read about half way through the first page before realizing this was a 2006 thread.

The artticle has been updated in the subscriber section for 2007.