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When to draft Gronk? (1 Viewer)

U

Unclegut

Footballguy
It seems like Gronk is one guy whose name keeps coming up in lots of articles as a guy who can win you a title if you're willing to 'risk' him early.

For those who have had drafts already, and for everyone else who has their drafts coming up, who is looking to draft Gronk...and if so how early?

 
I plan on taking him in the 3rd in all my drafts (2 today, 14 &12 team) (2 tomorrow 12 & 10 team). Might wait for the 4th in the 10 team league though.

 
I am shocked that he is still going in the 3rd or even 4th round of some drafts. That seems way too low. Even with the question of whether he will play week 1 still out there, his upside is so massive that, as long as you are confident enough in your ability to put together a good team around him, he ought to still be a 2nd round pick. I'd feel way more comfortable taking him in the 2nd round than most of the RBs going in the 2nd. Even if he misses a game or two, if he comes back healthy and plays the rest of the year, he'll be the beast he usually is.

 
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I had a chance to take him in the 3rd round of a 14-team league last night with the 34th pick last night and took JThomas instead, Gronk went 38th. I'm a Pats fan and I love Gronk but too much risk in my opinion.

 
Baloney Sandwich said:
I had a chance to take him in the 3rd round of a 14-team league last night with the 34th pick last night and took JThomas instead, Gronk went 38th. I'm a Pats fan and I love Gronk but too much risk in my opinion.
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I had the same dilemma, but I took Gronk Smash at 3.05. JT went a couple picks later. I understand the risk argument to pass on Gronk for Julius, but where's the fun in fantasy without some risk? To get Gronk in the third is a huge discount for what I'm expecting. Even if it takes him some time to ramp up to his normal Gronksmash self.

 
I love gronk and would absolutely take him on my fantasy team but the idea that he can win your league for you is a bit overstated. He's a third round pick who can play like a first round pick. That's huge value if he stays healthy. But there are other huge values available in that range... if things work out right for them.

LeVeon Bell - if he gets the goal line work, which he should

Julius Thomas - some people like him more than a healthy gronk. Needs to keep his high td percentage though

Randall Cobb -when healthy he has been a monster. Playing in a contract year, too.

Arian foster -obviously health is a concern but he is a top five back when he plays

Doug Martin-the last man standing in Tampa looks like he's ready to repair his study rookie season

Andre Ellington - in ppr leagues especially, but this guy is one of the few do it all backs in the league and could easily return top ten value

All of the guys going right around gronk's adp have first round upside. That's why purple are taking them early. The idea that a third round pick can't return first round value is a dangerous fallacy because it encourages you to settle. Most of these guys are potential studs with warts.That's what the first few rounds are for, losing up on potentially elite players before the tier drop.

 
I have him as the number #1 Te and it's not even close. I kno his health is a risk sometimes u take a chance. I think people forget when healthy he's better than Jimmy Graham who regularly goes in the 1st Rd! Side note if Gronk and Vereen healthy all season Brady is a top 5 QB!!

 
I Am Hoping He Falls To 3.04 In A 10 Team, NonPpr. Would Like To Take A Marshall/Julio At The Round 2 Spot. Love Gronk, If I Miss On Him I Can Take Julius.

 
bostonfred said:
I love gronk and would absolutely take him on my fantasy team but the idea that he can win your league for you is a bit overstated. He's a third round pick who can play like a first round pick. That's huge value if he stays healthy. But there are other huge values available in that range... if things work out right for them.

LeVeon Bell - if he gets the goal line work, which he should

Julius Thomas - some people like him more than a healthy gronk. Needs to keep his high td percentage though

Randall Cobb -when healthy he has been a monster. Playing in a contract year, too.

Arian foster -obviously health is a concern but he is a top five back when he plays

Doug Martin-the last man standing in Tampa looks like he's ready to repair his study rookie season

Andre Ellington - in ppr leagues especially, but this guy is one of the few do it all backs in the league and could easily return top ten value

All of the guys going right around gronk's adp have first round upside. That's why purple are taking them early. The idea that a third round pick can't return first round value is a dangerous fallacy because it encourages you to settle. Most of these guys are potential studs with warts.That's what the first few rounds are for, losing up on potentially elite players before the tier drop.
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Cobb gone in second. Foster was there, but he comes with injury risk and new regime worries too. Ellingtonhas not carried the load for a full season, and not convinced Martin isn't in a full blown RBBC.

 
Got him halfway through the 4th in a 14-team league last night. He was the 5th TE off the board.

Stoked I got him there, but later there was a huge run on TEs and I wasn't able to grab a backup. So I'm a little worried there.

 
I would say a 3rd is what his asking price stays at and probably worth the risk at that point. There are plenty of cheaper, upside TE's you can get around the 10th rd or later to back him up with in Ertz, Bennett, Kelce, etc.

 
hotboyz said:
I have him as the number #1 Te and it's not even close. I kno his health is a risk sometimes u take a chance. I think people forget when healthy he's better than Jimmy Graham who regularly goes in the 1st Rd! Side note if Gronk and Vereen healthy all season Brady is a top 5 QB!!
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It's not even close?
 
I like him much more in auction than in snake drafts, as there's a much lower opportunity cost to bidding on him than to using a very high pick to get him. In the 3rd round, I'd have a very hard time passing on a WR or an RB to take an unknown quantity. In a $200 auction, going after Gronk probably just means that you have to save $15-$20 somewhere else, which gives you a lot more flexibility in how you attack your draft. Maybe you fill out your WRs with $6-$8 players like Decker and Colston instead of spending $16-$20 each on guys like Fitzgerald, and Vincent Jackson.

 
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We Tigers said:
I like him much more in auction than in snake drafts, as there's a much lower opportunity cost to bidding on him than to using a very high pick to get him. In the 3rd round, I'd have a very hard time passing on a WR or an RB to take an unknown quantity. In a $200 auction, going after Gronk probably just means that you have to save $15-$20 somewhere else, which gives you a lot more flexibility in how you attack your draft. Maybe you fill out your WRs with $6-$8 players like Decker and Colston instead of spending $16-$20 each on guys like Fitzgerald, and Vincent Jackson.
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Gronkowski is pretty much the exact opposite of an unknown quantity.

 
Baloney Sandwich said:
I had a chance to take him in the 3rd round of a 14-team league last night with the 34th pick last night and took JThomas instead, Gronk went 38th. I'm a Pats fan and I love Gronk but too much risk in my opinion.
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Giot him in the 3rd yesterday - 14 teams. Pick #30. A swing for the fences.

 
hotboyz said:
I have him as the number #1 Te and it's not even close. I kno his health is a risk sometimes u take a chance. I think people forget when healthy he's better than Jimmy Graham who regularly goes in the 1st Rd! Side note if Gronk and Vereen healthy all season Brady is a top 5 QB!!
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:lmao: You can have him #1 but to say it's not even close is comical.

 
Grahamburn said:
We Tigers said:
I like him much more in auction than in snake drafts, as there's a much lower opportunity cost to bidding on him than to using a very high pick to get him. In the 3rd round, I'd have a very hard time passing on a WR or an RB to take an unknown quantity. In a $200 auction, going after Gronk probably just means that you have to save $15-$20 somewhere else, which gives you a lot more flexibility in how you attack your draft. Maybe you fill out your WRs with $6-$8 players like Decker and Colston instead of spending $16-$20 each on guys like Fitzgerald, and Vincent Jackson.
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Gronkowski is pretty much the exact opposite of an unknown quantity.
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When he plays, sure. However, given that his playing status was week-to-week until he finally made his first appearance in week 7 last year, the unknown aspect is how the Pats will treat him and when you'll get to use him. If there wasn't any ambiguity about his availability for the early season, he'd probably be going in the top 15-20 players overall.

 
bostonfred said:
I love gronk and would absolutely take him on my fantasy team but the idea that he can win your league for you is a bit overstated. He's a third round pick who can play like a first round pick. That's huge value if he stays healthy. But there are other huge values available in that range... if things work out right for them.

LeVeon Bell - if he gets the goal line work, which he should

Julius Thomas - some people like him more than a healthy gronk. Needs to keep his high td percentage though

Randall Cobb -when healthy he has been a monster. Playing in a contract year, too.

Arian foster -obviously health is a concern but he is a top five back when he plays

Doug Martin-the last man standing in Tampa looks like he's ready to repair his study rookie season

Andre Ellington - in ppr leagues especially, but this guy is one of the few do it all backs in the league and could easily return top ten value

All of the guys going right around gronk's adp have first round upside. That's why purple are taking them early. The idea that a third round pick can't return first round value is a dangerous fallacy because it encourages you to settle. Most of these guys are potential studs with warts.That's what the first few rounds are for, losing up on potentially elite players before the tier drop.
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None of those guys have the upside of a healthy gronk.

 
Tool said:
bostonfred said:
I love gronk and would absolutely take him on my fantasy team but the idea that he can win your league for you is a bit overstated. He's a third round pick who can play like a first round pick. That's huge value if he stays healthy. But there are other huge values available in that range... if things work out right for them.

LeVeon Bell - if he gets the goal line work, which he should

Julius Thomas - some people like him more than a healthy gronk. Needs to keep his high td percentage though

Randall Cobb -when healthy he has been a monster. Playing in a contract year, too.

Arian foster -obviously health is a concern but he is a top five back when he plays

Doug Martin-the last man standing in Tampa looks like he's ready to repair his study rookie season

Andre Ellington - in ppr leagues especially, but this guy is one of the few do it all backs in the league and could easily return top ten value

All of the guys going right around gronk's adp have first round upside. That's why purple are taking them early. The idea that a third round pick can't return first round value is a dangerous fallacy because it encourages you to settle. Most of these guys are potential studs with warts.That's what the first few rounds are for, losing up on potentially elite players before the tier drop.
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None of those guys have the upside of a healthy gronk.
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In some drafts, those guys will be gone before Gronk. Laugh and snap him up.

 
Wouldn't touch him till at least the 8th. Probably why I won't own him. Way too much risk to throw a 3rd or 4th away on a TE that WILL get injured.

 
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Foster has been the number one pick in fantasy. His upside is literally the highest possible. Of course, you hadn't top tolerate injury risk to get that upside, and also the changes in Houston. But to say gronk had higher than the highest possible upside seems a bit premature.

Martin was a top five pick last year. He could well be one again next year.

After seeing where Graham is getting drafted this year, I don't think gronk has better upside than those guys.

Whether you think he has a better chance of achieving that upside is just a matter of risk tolerance for each player. I'm not saying gronk is more our less risky than the other guys, just that all of those guys have upside, and all of them have risk.

You need to pick the risks work taking, and gronk is a fine choice. There's no need to exaggerate his upside by saying he automatically wins you your league, or he has more upside than guys like foster and Martin.

 
I took him at 3.03 in a 14-team (relatively) standard league in which you keep 1 player. He was the 2nd TE off the board. Thomas went later in the round at 3.10. The next three backs that went off the board in that round were Ellington, Bush, and Matthews. The next three receivers were Cruz, Harvin, and Edelman. I was surprised to see him last that long and was glad to snag him there. I didn't mind missing out on those players for the upside of Gronk.

 
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To me, a lottery ticket winner is Josh Gordon in the 9th, 10th, 11th. That pick is a "if it works out, it's gold and if it doesn't then oh well" type of move. Gronk in the late 2nd or early 3rd, and before J. Thomas, is fools gold. No shame in passing on Gronk in the late 2nd/early 3rd........if someone takes him there and they beat you....God Bless them.

 
Got him at the end of round 4 tonight which is insane value. He is the ultimate boom or bust player this year. If he plays 14+ games he will win a lot of TE mandatory leagues if he was taken 3rd/4th round.

 
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What I don't understand is you guys posting you got him in the 4th and are ecstatic. How did you feel comfortable passing on him in the 3rd? That alone is great value. I don't think I'd ever let him get past me there.

 
bill bates hits hard said:
What I don't understand is you guys posting you got him in the 4th and are ecstatic. How did you feel comfortable passing on him in the 3rd? That alone is great value. I don't think I'd ever let him get past me there.
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Didn't have a WR yet and Cobb was there in the 3rd. I planned to wait on TE until Reed or Ertz, but I just couldn't let Gronk go at 4.7 (14-teamer).

 
bostonfred said:
I love gronk and would absolutely take him on my fantasy team but the idea that he can win your league for you is a bit overstated. He's a third round pick who can play like a first round pick. That's huge value if he stays healthy. But there are other huge values available in that range... if things work out right for them.

LeVeon Bell - if he gets the goal line work, which he should

Julius Thomas - some people like him more than a healthy gronk. Needs to keep his high td percentage though

Randall Cobb -when healthy he has been a monster. Playing in a contract year, too.

Arian foster -obviously health is a concern but he is a top five back when he plays

Doug Martin-the last man standing in Tampa looks like he's ready to repair his study rookie season

Andre Ellington - in ppr leagues especially, but this guy is one of the few do it all backs in the league and could easily return top ten value

All of the guys going right around gronk's adp have first round upside. That's why purple are taking them early. The idea that a third round pick can't return first round value is a dangerous fallacy because it encourages you to settle. Most of these guys are potential studs with warts.That's what the first few rounds are for, losing up on potentially elite players before the tier drop.
Click to expand...
Got Gronk at 3.11 tonight in a non-ppr. All of these guys were taken ahead of him.

 
We Tigers said:
Grahamburn said:
We Tigers said:
I like him much more in auction than in snake drafts, as there's a much lower opportunity cost to bidding on him than to using a very high pick to get him. In the 3rd round, I'd have a very hard time passing on a WR or an RB to take an unknown quantity. In a $200 auction, going after Gronk probably just means that you have to save $15-$20 somewhere else, which gives you a lot more flexibility in how you attack your draft. Maybe you fill out your WRs with $6-$8 players like Decker and Colston instead of spending $16-$20 each on guys like Fitzgerald, and Vincent Jackson.
Click to expand...
Gronkowski is pretty much the exact opposite of an unknown quantity.
Click to expand...
When he plays, sure. However, given that his playing status was week-to-week until he finally made his first appearance in week 7 last year, the unknown aspect is how the Pats will treat him and when you'll get to use him. If there wasn't any ambiguity about his availability for the early season, he'd probably be going in the top 15-20 players overall.
Click to expand...
There is some ambiguity. True. However, he will play at some point this season. That looks to be pretty clear. Once the season starts we know when/if he's out or injured. Even if Gronkowski only plays ten games he's probably worth at least a 4th round pick.

Take him in the 3rd to secure his upside. Then back him up with another TE a little earlier than you would normally draft your backup. You solidify your TE spot and weaken your opponents chances of keeping up with you at TE even more. If Gronk shows he is fully healthy then trade the backup TE.

 
$500 PPR redraft, start QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/K/D

Gronk went 2.08 (20 overall)

Graham went 1.04 (4 overall)

Thomas went 2.10 (22 overall)

Huge edge for top-TE talent. Don't feel it's a reach in late second.

 
He went for $30 in our 10 team, $200 cap, TE required draft. PPR. 6 points all TDs.

ETA: Graham went for $41

 
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Had a few drafts in the last few days, and Gronk's gone in 3rd & 4th rounds. I was a tad surprised with the 4th round, and chatted with a few owners who said it's pretty consistent with what they've seen (3rd and sometimes 4th).

 
He fell to me at 5.01 in a 12-team draft (non-PPR) last night. It's my first year in this league and it seemed like most people knew what they were doing but this one threw me off a bit.

 
I took him in one meaningful 12 team league this weekend. 3.03.

I would have liked to try my luck with having him fall to the late 3rd or maybe the very early 4th...but you'd need to pick in just the right spot to make that happen.

If you want him I think you probably need to plan on taking him with your 3rd round pick. MAYBE if you have pick 11-12 you can hope to get him with 4.01-4.02....but probably he goes in the 3rd somewhere

(I took Bennett later to cover)

 
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Grahamburn said:
We Tigers said:
I like him much more in auction than in snake drafts, as there's a much lower opportunity cost to bidding on him than to using a very high pick to get him. In the 3rd round, I'd have a very hard time passing on a WR or an RB to take an unknown quantity. In a $200 auction, going after Gronk probably just means that you have to save $15-$20 somewhere else, which gives you a lot more flexibility in how you attack your draft. Maybe you fill out your WRs with $6-$8 players like Decker and Colston instead of spending $16-$20 each on guys like Fitzgerald, and Vincent Jackson.
Click to expand...
Gronkowski is pretty much the exact opposite of an unknown quantity.
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Gronk cost $20 in my auction last night and that definitely hampered my ability to secure a better 3rd WR (we start 3). Decker is ok, but I'm hoping a healthy Gronk can put up WR2 numbers at the TE position to make up for it.

Just means I have to keep a good eye on the WW week 1. There's always a WR or two that shakes free (I hope anyway).

 
Griffindor said:
Got him halfway through the 4th in a 14-team league last night. He was the 5th TE off the board.

Stoked I got him there, but later there was a huge run on TEs and I wasn't able to grab a backup. So I'm a little worried there.
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Can you flex a TE or something? Seems strange that you couldn't grab a serviceable backup, even in a 14-team league.

 
humpback said:
Griffindor said:
Got him halfway through the 4th in a 14-team league last night. He was the 5th TE off the board.

Stoked I got him there, but later there was a huge run on TEs and I wasn't able to grab a backup. So I'm a little worried there.
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Can you flex a TE or something? Seems strange that you couldn't grab a serviceable backup, even in a 14-team league.
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Nope, no flex. I also thought it was strange how many TEs people took. I was pretty much counting on getting at least Kelce as a backup.

We'll see if this weekend sheds any more light on the guys on the wire, and then I'll just snag someone before Week 1. Or I may be able to trade a depth WR to the Heath owner.

 
I got told I reached for him at 2.12. :shrug: I took Rudolph later even though they share a bye and then doubled down on Kelce. He wouldn't have made it back around to me so I'll take the criticism. About half the guys I was playing with are casual FF players too. I would take him again at the same spot without hesitation. The only TE I would rather have is Graham.

 
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