When to draft Gronk? (1 Viewer)

[Leonidas]

So how confident is everyone he is playing week 1?

Too early to tell.

Thankfully it's a 1:00 Sunday game.

Unthankfully I won't be home or even at electronic devices at the time.

I'll have to make my best guess Saturday night and then maybe task my wife with double checking at 12:48.

I got told I reached for him at 2.12. I took Rudolph later even though they share a bye and then doubled down on Kelce. He wouldn't have made it back around to me so I'll take the criticism. About half the guys I was playing with are casual FF players too. I would take him again at the same spot without hesitation. The only TE I would rather have is Graham.

Exactly. For snake drafts you are stuck with your draft spot. Barring draft pick trades or an auction league, that's what you have to work with. If the guy won't make it back, is it really a reach?

We have to remember that any half-sane strategy works when you pick the right players. It really does. So take the guys you want when you can get them.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

pats first game is a road game, so chances are if he travels he plays

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

 

[Payne]

I just took Thomas over Gronk at 3.4 after going Forte and Nelson.

Struggled with it. But I wanted "safe".

 

[Insein]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

One guy who will most likely play 16 games with Peyton vs a guy who will most certainly not play more than 13 games even if it's with Brady.

 

[MNTom]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

One guy who will most likely play 16 games with Peyton vs a guy who will most certainly not play more than 13 games even if it's with Brady.

How many times has J Thomas played 16 games in a season?

 

[mythrilfox]

i'm picking from the 11 spot which is an especially tough spot when considering gronk. if i knew for sure he was going to be gone by 3.11, i'd certainly take him in the second, but the additional, say, 20% chance that he's still there at 3.11 makes me feel i should wait. it seems in industry drafts gronk consistently gets drafted in the second and even occasionally the first.

imo drafting anyone other than graham above gronk is pretty bad. julius sustaining his TD rate and targets are just as much of a concern as gronk's health. julius also likely relies on a healthy peyton more than gronk relies on a healthy brady (not that either are an especially large concern, but it's a factor). i don't think people take into account enough the fact that they still get points at the TE position even when gronk is injured, so a player who is able to cram a ton of points into every game he plays actually presents a bit of a hidden floor since his 0 point injury weeks are mitigated by being able to know you can sub him out and stick in someone who gets you 6pts or whatever.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

The answer to this question is the same as the answer to most FF questions: It all depends on your league format.

In a non-PPR league without a required TE and with shallow benches, I most likely wouldn't take him in the first 4 rounds.

On the other hand, the FBG Survivor Leagues are ongoing - best-ball 16-teamers that are draft-only, with the low-scoring team eliminated each week, and with 2PPR for TEs. In that format, I took Gronk at 1.14 earlier today, and consider that highway robbery.

He clearly deserves to be TE2 off the board, but don't draft him if you aren't in a league (or don't have a roster) that makes the risk worthwhile.

 

[VikingFrog]

Took him at 3.10 in a tight end flex league. Standard scoring. 6 pt passing. Should have waited till 4.3, as I missed out on some rb talent, but got antsy.

 

[Courtweeks87]

I drafted him at the 3.3 last night and was happy as a fat kid getting cake. Rest of the league was about as happy as a fat kid getting vegetables! He would have gone next pick had I not taken him. Felt great starting off with mccoy, Jeffery, gronk, roddy, gerhart.

 

[Soulfly3]

I took him at 3.04 tonight, 12 team nonPPR

paired up w megatron and antonio brown... how could I not?

 

[smbkrypt24]

In 12 team ppr i had the 12th pick and I was surprised surprised when he was available at 3.12. I quickly paired him w Julio and b Marshall.

 

[Fat Nick]

Took him at 4.01 in a 12 team 0.5 PPR league and was thrilled. Less than thrilled about randomly picking last or 2nd to last for the 4th time in 5 years...I had to mix it up and went WR/WR then RB/TE. My RB's are actually not totally horrible, but I'll need some help.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

So how is gronk looking as far as starting week 1? I have him in a short bench league. Trying to gauge whether i will need to look at some backup options.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Who are you guys pairing him with???

 

[Bamac]

He's been going early-mid 2d in MFL 10 leagues.

 

[Leonidas]

I took him at 3.04 tonight, 12 team nonPPR

paired up w megatron and antonio brown... how could I not?

LOVE IT

I have him with Mega and Nelson (12 team standard also)

 

[MDSkinner]

Got him at 4.11 last night in a 12 team non-PPR. By comparison, JThomas went 3.09. I felt like this was great value for Gronk but in that league people seemed afraid to draft him even with the positive news.

 

[bizkliz]

drafted 8/24

12-teams, ppr, paired with...

mccoy

jordy

gronk at 3.02

-biz-

 

[Soulfly3]

Got him at 4.11 last night in a 12 team non-PPR. By comparison, JThomas went 3.09. I felt like this was great value for Gronk but in that league people seemed afraid to draft him even with the positive news.

makes my 3.04 look bad.

but 0 chance he wouldve even got past 3.05... the guy was FURIOUS when I nabbed him.. along w a collection of "damn" from about 3-4 other leaguemates

 

[mquinnjr]

Who are you guys pairing him with???

Graham in a 12 team standard redraft. Went 1.8 and 2.5 (you can flex a TE). My thought is, if healthy, they both can score like high WR1's where it's "en vogue" to go WR/WR, but from the flex/TE spot. Built the rest of my roster on upside at RB/WR and drafted depth late, and am pretty pleased to be honest.

 

[rickyg]

Got him tonight at 4.8 in a 12 team standard scoring league. Apparently people are spooked by the mankind/tim weight trade. They think it's telling about gronk's health and availability for the beginning of the season.

Only time will tell I suppose.

 

[cvnpoka]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

One guy who will most likely play 16 games with Peyton vs a guy who will most certainly not play more than 13 games even if it's with Brady.

flawless logic here

 

[hoopvillian]

Who are you guys pairing him with???

Paired him with Gates. I figure Gates should stay healthy enough during the first few games for Gronk to get fully on track.

 

[ShaqAttaq]

took him at 3.12 in 14 team PPR last night. didn't draft a backup; i'll deal with that next week if need be.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Got him tonight at 4.8 in a 12 team standard scoring league. Apparently people are spooked by the mankind/tim weight trade. They think it's telling about gronk's health and availability for the beginning of the season.

Only time will tell I suppose.

I don't see how this has any relevance at all to grabowski --- I wouldn't worry about it.

 

[gliz]

I took him at 3.06 in a 10-team league.

I had planned to take JT with that pick, but to my surprise JT went at 3.04.

With JT I would have stuck with just one TE on my roster, but with Gronk's injury risk I adjusted my draft plan and followed Gronk with Ertz at 10.05 and Kelce at 15.06.

Gronk for week 1? I'd say 75% chance he plays, but with a reduced number of snaps. If he is Gronk by week 4 I will feel like I made the right move.

 

[first round bust]

The only player I can think of off the top of my head that returned successfully the year right after an ACL tear is Adrian Peterson. Even Jamaal Charles, who had a very good year the year after his ACL tear, still wasn't the same the year after. You have to also take into consideration that Gronk's injury happened pretty late in the season and that he blew out his MCL in addition to the ACL. People say that medical technology has shortened timetables but I think it's too risky to take Gronk at where he's being taken because everyone else besides the genetic freak that is AP has needed the extra year to get back to form. I can't say I'm confident that he will ever return to form because of the multiple ligament tears. I'm interested to see if he proves me wrong.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

took him at the 2.12/3.01 turn (had the first pick) last night, PPR 12 teamer

 

[ponchsox]

The only player I can think of off the top of my head that returned successfully the year right after an ACL tear is Adrian Peterson. Even Jamaal Charles, who had a very good year the year after his ACL tear, still wasn't the same the year after. You have to also take into consideration that Gronk's injury happened pretty late in the season and that he blew out his MCL in addition to the ACL. People say that medical technology has shortened timetables but I think it's too risky to take Gronk at where he's being taken because everyone else besides the genetic freak that is AP has needed the extra year to get back to form. I can't say I'm confident that he will ever return to form because of the multiple ligament tears. I'm interested to see if he proves me wrong.

All reports I've read says he's moving well and has the typical soreness associated with rehab. I would imagine it takes a RB longer to regain their form since they have to cut a lot more.

 

[rickyg]

Got him tonight at 4.8 in a 12 team standard scoring league. Apparently people are spooked by the mankind/tim weight trade. They think it's telling about gronk's health and availability for the beginning of the season.

Only time will tell I suppose.

I don't see how this has any relevance at all to grabowski --- I wouldn't worry about it.

Haha my bad. Freaking iPhone autocorrect!

 

[Kenny Powers]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

One guy who will most likely play 16 games with Peyton vs a guy who will most certainly not play more than 13 games even if it's with Brady.

I actually have them projected to score exactly the same, taking this into account as Im expecting Gronk to miss 3-4 games one way or another. Dont know which way I'll go if pressed with that decision in the 3rd and I want to go TE, but I do think Julius stats will take a slight uptick this year (add around 10/100/0) with Peyton losing one of his big targets in Decker, something Sanders cant replace, and Welker being such a question mark right now.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

The problem with Gronk is he will have trouble high pointing the ball after that surgery. That was his bread and butter. And coupled with his already small catch radius...well, color me concerned.

 

[ponchsox]

The problem with Gronk is he will have trouble high pointing the ball after that surgery. That was his bread and butter. And coupled with his already small catch radius...well, color me concerned.

Concerned? Either you take the risk and draft him or not. I took him in the 4th but I'm not going to worry about him. If he plays 13 games, I got a steal and possibly a championship. If he doesn't, it won't be a season ender for my team. Depends on your risk tolerance.

 

[Bamac]

The problem with Gronk is he will have trouble high pointing the ball after that surgery. That was his bread and butter. And coupled with his already small catch radius...well, color me concerned.

Concerned? Either you take the risk and draft him or not. I took him in the 4th but I'm not going to worry about him. If he plays 13 games, I got a steal and possibly a championship. If he doesn't, it won't be a season ender for my team. Depends on your risk tolerance.

My risk tolerance > Josh Gordon's THC tolerance. Not a good thing.

 

[Phenomena]

The problem with Gronk is he will have trouble high pointing the ball after that surgery. That was his bread and butter. And coupled with his already small catch radius...well, color me concerned.

Huh... I thought his strength was his enormous catch radius. He has two of the biggest hands in the NFL with a massive frame.

Check out the first highlight on this Sports Science clip ... his foot was barely off the ground but he still easily snagged it out of the air above the defense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoxTjeEeD_0

There's no evidence to suggest he can't run that exact play 12 times this year for TDs. The yardage won't be great, but even 900/12 for TE makes him worth his current ADP. And if he regains his pre-injury form his ceiling is obviously much higher than that. I think he is very clearly a solid pick in the 3rd.

 

[Courtweeks87]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

One guy who will most likely play 16 games with Peyton vs a guy who will most certainly not play more than 13 games even if it's with Brady.

flawless logic here

Thomas isn't exactly a model of a non injury prone player? His first 2 years of his NFL career were batting constant injuries.

 

[cvnpoka]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

One guy who will most likely play 16 games with Peyton vs a guy who will most certainly not play more than 13 games even if it's with Brady.

flawless logic here

Thomas isn't exactly a model of a non injury prone player? His first 2 years of his NFL career were batting constant injuries.

sarcasm is hard.

fantasy football is not hard. at least its not hard when gronk is falling till the mid 3rd and 4th. take gronk. take him there. take delanie in the last round. cut delanie when gronk plays. profit.

 

[rockaction]

Got him at 3.08 in a 14 team league.

 

[mbrasi]

Being taken very close to Julius, which would you take if given the choice in the same round?

One guy who will most likely play 16 games with Peyton vs a guy who will most certainly not play more than 13 games even if it's with Brady.

flawless logic here

This is true but in all three of my drafts so far I would've needed to take Julius in the 2nd to get him. I've been able to snag Gronk in the 3rd in all of my drafts so far. Last night got him at 3.11 (12 team ppr).

I've been taking another high caliber TE with upside a couple of rounds later to (hopefully) offset the potential injury risk. I got J Cameron on two teams and Reed on another.

The thought is if both my TEs are great, then I got a killer TE and a solid flex play every week. If one of them sucks, I should still be good at the position.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

3.10 in a 12 team PPR.

 

[Pietaster2]

3.6 in a 12 man PPR. It's probably my favorite pick I've made in awhile.

No one should have doubts about this monster resuming his path of destruction. He's probably going to win a lot of championships this year, and you can't say that about too many third rounders.

 

[TheCommish]

3.6 in a 12 man PPR. It's probably my favorite pick I've made in awhile.

No one should have doubts about this monster resuming his path of destruction. He's probably going to win a lot of championships this year, and you can't say that about too many third rounders.

Went at 3.7 (one pick ahead of me ) in our 12-team PPR. I had a feeling he would take him, and I was right. Bummed me out, but I kept taking studs and took Jordan Reed in the 8th round.

 

[FGITLOTR]

Got him at 5.4 in a 10 team PPR league. I marveled as he kept falling and couldn't pass up the value in the 5th

 

[rickyg]

Who are you guys pairing him with???

I got gronk in the 4th...paired Reed in the 11th with him and kelce in the 14th. I feel pretty good about it. If gronk works out like I think he could this year i'll have a dominant force in my TE spot and Reed and/or kelce can still both be very valuable either as flex positions or trade bait. Or, if one of them really steps up big I can always trade gronk for a stud WR or RB. If Gronk doesn't work out well, I still have depth at TE and should be fine with those guys.

I have mixed feelings about my pick. I am very worried about his current health, whether or not he will have any explosiveness this year after the knee surgery, and just how many games he will hold up for. I passed on patterson for him and now my WR3 is one of kendall wright, james jones, or justin hunter (non ppr). Hope I made the rt choice but only time will tell.

 

[shader]

The problem with Gronk is he will have trouble high pointing the ball after that surgery. That was his bread and butter. And coupled with his already small catch radius...well, color me concerned.

 

[Kenny Powers]

3.6 in a 12 man PPR. It's probably my favorite pick I've made in awhile.

No one should have doubts about this monster resuming his path of destruction. He's probably going to win a lot of championships this year, and you can't say that about too many third rounders.

A lot of us were saying this last year, except as a 5th rounder....and it didnt work out as expected

 

[first round bust]

The only player I can think of off the top of my head that returned successfully the year right after an ACL tear is Adrian Peterson. Even Jamaal Charles, who had a very good year the year after his ACL tear, still wasn't the same the year after. You have to also take into consideration that Gronk's injury happened pretty late in the season and that he blew out his MCL in addition to the ACL. People say that medical technology has shortened timetables but I think it's too risky to take Gronk at where he's being taken because everyone else besides the genetic freak that is AP has needed the extra year to get back to form. I can't say I'm confident that he will ever return to form because of the multiple ligament tears. I'm interested to see if he proves me wrong.

All reports I've read says he's moving well and has the typical soreness associated with rehab. I would imagine it takes a RB longer to regain their form since they have to cut a lot more.

I can't think of many examples of WR/TE's that tore ACL's at the moment. The one I specifically remember is Welker tearing his ACL against the Texans at the end of 2009. He came back decently in 2010 with 848 yards and 7 TD's but it took him the extra year to fully get back to being himself as he had the big year in 2011 (1569 yards and 9 TDs). Granted, Gronk is not Welker and has a different body and different game and Gronk's outcome may be different. Just as a rule, though, I refuse to take a player the year after the torn ACL and the only time this has burned me as far as I remember was with AP a few years ago.

 

[first round bust]

I also want to add that if Gronk comes out this year with a decent output, say 700 yards or so, I will consider him good to go for 2015 and will expect him to produce at his pre-injury level.

 

[Stryker]

I Think I've Convinced Myself I'mTaking Him In The Third Round, At 3.04