When to quit thinking they will get beter? (1 Viewer)

[DoGdr]

Doug Drinen did some statisical analysis of at what point in the season you should quit waiting on guys who are not producing to produce and whenyou can figure player that are producing are going to continue to produce. I think he looked at it by position. It was a great article and i am wondering if it is out there in an archieve or if someone could look at it again.

 

[EdwardCat]

 

[crnerblitz]

 

[Sabertooth]

 

[GregR_2]

Did you mean Slow Starters (second item down)?

 

[BGP]

I wonder if Doug Drinen channeled his energies into investing in the stock market instead of this football silliness, how rich he'd be right now.

 

[Bri]

Examine your teams needs. If you're "set" you can be patient but to ignore a need and wait would be silly IMO

 

[Sabertooth]

Examine your teams needs. If you're "set" you can be patient but to ignore a need and wait would be silly IMO

No ####. He's looking for statistical analysis of whether or not he should hang on to his guys or look elsewhere. How do you help him with that? This is what the shark pool has come to. I used to get a lot better info than this type of crap here. If he was "set" he wouldn't be too worried about it.

 

[DoGdr]

I am an interested in at what point in the season are this seasons stats a better predictor of final stats than last seasons stats, and preseason projections. I wonder if this varies by position? I think I have seen an article on this on the site but I am not sure.

Since "Intro to Statistics" was three of the hardest classes I had in my college (WTHDRAW, F, C-) I am not quite sure how to set this up.

 

[plymkr]

I am an interested in at what point in the season are this seasons stats a better predictor of final stats than last seasons stats, and preseason projections. I wonder if this varies by position? I think I have seen an article on this on the site but I am not sure.Since "Intro to Statistics" was three of the hardest classes I had in my college (WTHDRAW, F, C-) I am not quite sure how to set this up.

LOL!!! Man does that sound familiar!!

 

[BusMan]

We should somehow dedicate said article to Michael Clayton.

 

[bjabrad]

I got a good read out of Drinen's article and came away with the wisdom that last years results are predictable for next years for 75% of players and that the other 25% are easily explained via new QB, injury, etc...

Drinen's research shows that if your players are way off their points from last year that they have a great chance of recovering to their previous per game levels during the remainder of their schedule.

Guys that are way off last years marks so far include:

RB's Alexander, Barber, Jordan (schedule has been brutal in weeks 1 & 2), TJones, Droughns, Dunn, CWilliams

WR's CJohnson, Galloway, Chambers, Burress, Ward

Next step is to weed out the poor performances that have a good reason and this is where it gets tricky. Do you consider the loss of OL Hutchinson to be a good reason for Alexander? What is Barber's excuse or should his numbers correct? Which of these players have a good excuse and which onces will correct themselves with better schedules and their talent taking over?

 

[Bri]

Examine your teams needs. If you're "set" you can be patient but to ignore a need and wait would be silly IMO

No ####. He's looking for statistical analysis of whether or not he should hang on to his guys or look elsewhere. How do you help him with that? This is what the shark pool has come to. I used to get a lot better info than this type of crap here. If he was "set" he wouldn't be too worried about it.

It was 11:30 and he didn't suggest any players for examples. Greg R already pasted the slow starters article. IMO (albeit simple)it was the only thing not mentioned by posting the slow start article. If he wants something on RBs or hot+cold WRs or rookie TEs+ foolish lofty expectations or rookie QB struggles.......with no other position data to go by he's gotta specify a little bit more at least. I'm not sure what you expect posted but if you're looking for something I'd be glad to help, just ask.

 

[DoGdr]

Examine your teams needs. If you're "set" you can be patient but to ignore a need and wait would be silly IMO

No ####. He's looking for statistical analysis of whether or not he should hang on to his guys or look elsewhere. How do you help him with that? This is what the shark pool has come to. I used to get a lot better info than this type of crap here. If he was "set" he wouldn't be too worried about it.

It was 11:30 and he didn't suggest any players for examples. Greg R already pasted the slow starters article. IMO (albeit simple)it was the only thing not mentioned by posting the slow start article. If he wants something on RBs or hot+cold WRs or rookie TEs+ foolish lofty expectations or rookie QB struggles.......with no other position data to go by he's gotta specify a little bit more at least. I'm not sure what you expect posted but if you're looking for something I'd be glad to help, just ask.

Bri-I have no-problem with your intial post (obvious though it is). I just thought there was an article out there about this where someone had already looked at this. Actually I am in pretty good shape to date but as always I am looking to improve. i will try to clarify what i am looking for below.

 

[IndyHavoc]

Quick props to you, Bri. You handled that shot across your bow better than 99% of residents on this board. You're a better man than me.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Quick props to you, Bri. You handled that shot across your bow better than 99% of residents on this board. You're a better man than me.

Ditto

 

[Velcro]

It's a great topic for discussion. Even though it's only 4 games, it represents 25% of the season. So should we really expect Marques Colston to be a top 10 receiver and Rod Smith and Randy Moss to be waiver fodder?

I think the poster is asking if there is an article that, statistically, supports at what point in the current season a player's future performance in commensurate with their past performance.

 

[DoGdr]

What I am looking for is a sense of when this season’s production to date is a better indicator of the rest of the season’s production that last seasons production or pre-season projections. And I am wondering if that varies with position.

For example (Not that I believe this is true);

RB’s usually establish a pattern or production by week six and by that point this seasons production to date is a better indicator of production for the reast of the year than previous years(or projections).

WR’s always come back to previous production. So pervious production is a better indicator of what they are going to produce throughout the season than their production to date.

This is the kind of stuff that would be nice to figure out.

Of course like anything it wouldn’t hold for every one but you could even look at the guys that are outliers and see if there is a pattern to them.

I think you could use previous years’ data to see if there were any trends. (I could swear I have already read this somewhere)

You of you mathematically gifted folks interested in tackling this problem.

 

[Big Cheese]

I couldn't ask for anything better. Inevitably at some point towards the midpoint of the season, one of my teams ends up being the previous years all stars who are, of course, underperforming. So they end up being called the '05 All Stars. (ie, Chambers, Rod Smith, Moss, etc.)

I was once considered mathematically gifted but then the rest of the world moved on and my mind and maturity level stayed in 9th grade.

 

[DoGdr]

It's a great topic for discussion. Even though it's only 4 games, it represents 25% of the season. So should we really expect Marques Colston to be a top 10 receiver and Rod Smith and Randy Moss to be waiver fodder? I think the poster is asking if there is an article that, statistically, supports at what point in the current season a player's future performance in commensurate with their past performance.

Yep, that's it!!

 

[Bri]

It's a great topic for discussion. Even though it's only 4 games, it represents 25% of the season. So should we really expect Marques Colston to be a top 10 receiver and Rod Smith and Randy Moss to be waiver fodder? I think the poster is asking if there is an article that, statistically, supports at what point in the current season a player's future performance in commensurate with their past performance.

Yep, that's it!!

first part, hard to characterize all players together and not do it on a case by case basisSecond part-I was thinking about this for a while today. I suppose what's lacking for me is you need to give a reason why a player isn't doing as well. Suppose a RB played behind the same line for 3 years but this year it's a bunch of no-names and rookies and he's struggling. Since you can't redo the league and reassign those players to his team you'll probably say he won't do as well as when he had a solid line. Incorrect free agency analysis and injuries change outlooks for players during the season. We all goof with them.I've googled and haven't found anything, I also hit a few sites looking and am striking out. General seems like a hard topic but RB behind a changed line, WR on new team, WR with new QB are all topics out there though. Sorry, I triedI would PM David Yudkin. He's very good with stats and might enjoy such a project to tackle if he has time.

 

[Bri]

Quick props to you, Bri. You handled that shot across your bow better than 99% of residents on this board.

Thanks I guess I have my moments but I'm passionate about FF and often don't handle them well so ...one in the good column I suppose, thanks

 

[DoGdr]

It's a great topic for discussion. Even though it's only 4 games, it represents 25% of the season. So should we really expect Marques Colston to be a top 10 receiver and Rod Smith and Randy Moss to be waiver fodder? I think the poster is asking if there is an article that, statistically, supports at what point in the current season a player's future performance in commensurate with their past performance.

Yep, that's it!!

first part, hard to characterize all players together and not do it on a case by case basisSecond part-I was thinking about this for a while today. I suppose what's lacking for me is you need to give a reason why a player isn't doing as well. Suppose a RB played behind the same line for 3 years but this year it's a bunch of no-names and rookies and he's struggling. Since you can't redo the league and reassign those players to his team you'll probably say he won't do as well as when he had a solid line. Incorrect free agency analysis and injuries change outlooks for players during the season. We all goof with them.I've googled and haven't found anything, I also hit a few sites looking and am striking out. General seems like a hard topic but RB behind a changed line, WR on new team, WR with new QB are all topics out there though. Sorry, I triedI would PM David Yudkin. He's very good with stats and might enjoy such a project to tackle if he has time.

Thanks for the replyThere may not be a one size fits all answer here but I really think it would be a neat question to look at. I will PM the person you mention and maybe try to send an email to DrininIt seems like there is a point that you get to in the season when that reason that they are doing worse is likely not to change anymore and you need to give up on them returning to the projections you expected. i wonder if as you look at those, regardless of reasons (one no clear reason at all) is generally earlier or later in the season and I wonder if it differs by position.

 

[dal_boys_phan]

Doug Drinnen did some statisical analysis...

Please don't take this as crapping on your request/idea, but correct spelling of the potential author's name (Drinen, not Drinnen) may help facilitate your request.

 

[(HULK)]

I wonder if Doug Drinen channeled his energies into investing in the stock market instead of this football silliness, how rich he'd be right now.

Drinen, if you do this, I'll be a paying suscriber.

 

[redjake]

I wonder if Doug Drinen channeled his energies into investing in the stock market instead of this football silliness, how rich he'd be right now.

Drinen, if you do this, I'll be a paying suscriber.

And quite possibly your ugliest client.

 

[DoGdr]

Doug Drinnen did some statisical analysis...

Please don't take this as crapping on your request/idea, but correct spelling of the potential author's name (Drinen, not Drinnen) may help facilitate your request.

Oops, fixed.Feel like is should do penance I did PM Drinen and Yudkin.

 

[videoguy505]

Perhaps it's easier if we use generalities?

For example, looking at Total Offense and Total Defense stats, instead of individual players, and seeing how long until they jived with end-of-season rankings?

The '05 worst 10 defenses, in order from worst to 10th-worst, were: SF, Houston, StL, Buf, Cin, Oak, NE, KC, NYG, and Philly.

Preseason '06, the bottom defenses may have been rated (not sure, exactly, but reasonably): Oak, Hou, SF, SD, Cin, Ari, Cle, GB, Det, StL.

YTD in '06, they are, in ascending order: Hou, GB, Ten, NYJ, Ari, NYG, Det, Cle, SF, and Cin.

Some teams, like the Giants, are in the bottom tier of Defense, but is this due to them being a bad D, or due to them having had to face Peyton, McNabb, and Hasselbeck in their first 3 games? Should the Giants be downgraded from a preseason 10-15th best to a potential bottom 10? Is Oakland, which ended '05 at the bottom, and was ranked near the bottom before the season started, an upstart D or have they just been lucky the first few weeks, facing Cleveland, Baltimore, and San Diego's offenses?

At about which week, historically, would Total Defense-YTD most likely represent end-of-season numbers? And is it a similar point in the season for Total Offense-YTD?

And, in terms of fantasy, when can I start using YTD Total Offense and Total Defense numbers to project the matchup for my players--when do '06 YTD stats better reflect "reality" than preseason projections? Should I be avoiding starting QBs vs. Oakland, since they're now top-10? Should I prefer starting my QB vs. the Giants?

I think that doing the analysis with these generalities may be easier than analyzing Player X's situation specifically.

 

[DoGdr]

Doug Drinen gave me the link to this article which is likely what i was thining of. It is about how much to base on week one performances. I figure i would give you all the link since I brought this up. http://footballguys.com/drinennotebook2.cfm

I still think this is an interesting question and think i will ask my genius father in law to help run somethin on it. I will keep you posted about results. If i get any.

 

[GFLalsoRans]

Doug Drinen gave me the link to this article which is likely what i was thining of. It is about how much to base on week one performances. I figure i would give you all the link since I brought this up. http://footballguys.com/drinennotebook2.cfm

I still think this is an interesting question and think i will ask my genius father in law to help run somethin on it. I will keep you posted about results. If i get any.

I think there was another Drinen article that looked at RBs over the 1st 4 games to see if 1st quarter production for the current top5 was a good indicator as to whether they would be 1)Top 10 for the year and 2)Top Ten for the rest of the year. I do not recall the specifics but the answer was along the lines of 1) yes almost for sure 2) they will probable fall off a little but there was somehting like a 70% correlation. Great Article if it can be found.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

I think you are looking at an open system right now and need to narrow your scope.

Maybe do a breakdown by position and then by years of experience in the league. Cross reference them and that might produce some useful statistics going foward of week 5 as compared to pre weeek 5.

Just a thought.