When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US? (1 Viewer)

[the moops]

Bidirectional Charging

There's a blackout, and you can plug your Nissan leaf into your home, and power your home for multiple days. Whaaaaaa

Very cool.

link no good

 

[massraider]

Bidirectional Charging

There's a blackout, and you can plug your Nissan leaf into your home, and power your home for multiple days. Whaaaaaa

Very cool.

link no good

This is why Gen Xers can't be trusted with hyperlinks.

Here's an article

Electric Vehicles Could Become a Blackout Solution in California

The state might require every electric vehicle to be capable of powering your home—and the grid—through a process called bi-directional charging.

gizmodo.com

 

[matttyl]

Bidirectional Charging

There's a blackout, and you can plug your Nissan leaf into your home, and power your home for multiple days. Whaaaaaa

Very cool.

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

 

[massraider]

Bidirectional Charging

There's a blackout, and you can plug your Nissan leaf into your home, and power your home for multiple days. Whaaaaaa

Very cool.

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

Meh, I assume that will come down. I mean this isn't a tech people are even aware of yet.

 

[the moops]

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

A whole house generator is not inexpensive either

 

[matttyl]

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

A whole house generator is not inexpensive either

Well sure, but they do different things. In a perfect scenario you’d want both. Otherwise the whole house powers down whenever someone wants to drive anywhere (during a power outage).

 

[massraider]

Well sure, but they do different things. In a perfect scenario you’d want both. Otherwise the whole house powers down whenever someone wants to drive anywhere (during a power outage).

Thinking more about this, once this feature is out there, maybe not everywhere, but around, their best marketing will be every blackout.

People looking over the fence at their neighbor who has WiFi and AC going during summer rolling blackouts will definitely remember that.

 

[Dragons]

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

A whole house generator is not inexpensive either

Well sure, but they do different things. In a perfect scenario you’d want both. Otherwise the whole house powers down whenever someone wants to drive anywhere (during a power outage).

A smaller permanent battery like the Tesla powerwall is more useful in most situations, but being able to add the massive battery pack you may already own in more severe outages would be a boon.

 

[Terminalxylem]

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

A whole house generator is not inexpensive either

Well sure, but they do different things. In a perfect scenario you’d want both. Otherwise the whole house powers down whenever someone wants to drive anywhere (during a power outage).

A smaller permanent battery like the Tesla powerwall is more useful in most situations, but being able to add the massive battery pack you may already own in more severe outages would be a boon.

Funny you mention this, as I was just considering getting one installed. Any FBG experience with powerwalls?

From what I can tell, the 13.5 kWh unit costs about $12K to install. HI currently has an $850/kW incentive on batteries supplying power to the grid, so it seems like they’re effectively free (actually better than free, by reducing external energy demands, and selling excess power).

What do I need to consider before taking the plunge? I have a PV system already that’s grid tied, which supplies most of of home energy needs. Will probably get an EV in the next 5 years as well.

 

[matttyl]

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

A whole house generator is not inexpensive either

Well sure, but they do different things. In a perfect scenario you’d want both. Otherwise the whole house powers down whenever someone wants to drive anywhere (during a power outage).

A smaller permanent battery like the Tesla powerwall is more useful in most situations, but being able to add the massive battery pack you may already own in more severe outages would be a boon.

Yup. To me the power wall is just a whole house generator that’s white and needs the power to return in order to recharge.

Something else to consider is reusing the old battery from your first EV as a power wall. When the battery has degraded some and the range is down 30%, the car might be worth more as a power wall than as a vehicle.

 

[Dragons]

Funny you mention this, as I was just considering getting one installed. Any FBG experience with powerwalls?

From what I can tell, the 13.5 kWh unit costs about $12K to install. HI currently has an $850/kW incentive on batteries supplying power to the grid, so it seems like they’re effectively free (actually better than free, by reducing external energy demands, and selling excess power).

What do I need to consider before taking the plunge? I have a PV system already that’s grid tied, which supplies most of of home energy needs. Will probably get an EV in the next 5 years as well.

If you will get a full rebate, its a no brainer just for power outages.

Otherwise, whether or not you have net metering and/or time of day rates are very important considerations for looking at a payback.

For example, for me in CT, with a PV system, net metering, a static rate and little to no rebate (I think there's a 30% federal tax credit), I would have virtually no payback as the grid is effectively my battery. However, I would still consider it for a power outage. People around here pay $10-15k for a natural gas automatic generators. As a stand-alone battery, it couldn't run as long as the natural gas option, but combined with PV it would recharge daily and actually allow me to use my PV generation during an outage.

 

[Dragons]

Yup. To me the power wall is just a whole house generator that’s white and needs the power to return in order to recharge.

Something else to consider is reusing the old battery from your first EV as a power wall. When the battery has degraded some and the range is down 30%, the car might be worth more as a power wall than as a vehicle.

Unless paired with a PV system, then it recharges itself. I don't think a Powerwall is worth it without one or the other (PV or Car to Home). I haven't given it a lot of thought, but I think even car to home would be a hassle in a long outage - driving somewhere with power to charge, to bring it home for a few days power - I guess not that much different than going out for gas for a regular generator

 

[Terminalxylem]

Funny you mention this, as I was just considering getting one installed. Any FBG experience with powerwalls?

From what I can tell, the 13.5 kWh unit costs about $12K to install. HI currently has an $850/kW incentive on batteries supplying power to the grid, so it seems like they’re effectively free (actually better than free, by reducing external energy demands, and selling excess power).

What do I need to consider before taking the plunge? I have a PV system already that’s grid tied, which supplies most of of home energy needs. Will probably get an EV in the next 5 years as well.

If you will get a full rebate, its a no brainer just for power outages.

Otherwise, whether or not you have net metering and/or time of day rates are very important considerations for looking at a payback.

For example, for me in CT, with a PV system, net metering, a static rate and little to no rebate (I think there's a 30% federal tax credit), I would have virtually no payback as the grid is effectively my battery. However, I would still consider it for a power outage. People around here pay $10-15k for a natural gas automatic generators. As a stand-alone battery, it couldn't run as long as the natural gas option, but combined with PV it would recharge daily and actually allow me to use my PV generation during an outage.

We have net metering, and a state tax credit on top of the federal - 35 and 30% of the cost, respectively. Not sure about our energy rates.

The power almost never goes out for more than a few seconds/minutes, but I like the idea of not relying on the grid regardless. I also think there is talk of “smart grids”, where people with excess power generation effectively sell to their neighbors, as it’s more efficient than centralized power stations.

ETA Looks like there was a program with different time of use rates, but that closed for enrollment last year. I assume my energy rates are static then.

 

[matttyl]

Yup. To me the power wall is just a whole house generator that’s white and needs the power to return in order to recharge.

Something else to consider is reusing the old battery from your first EV as a power wall. When the battery has degraded some and the range is down 30%, the car might be worth more as a power wall than as a vehicle.

Unless paired with a PV system, then it recharges itself. I don't think a Powerwall is worth it without one or the other (PV or Car to Home). I haven't given it a lot of thought, but I think even car to home would be a hassle in a long outage - driving somewhere with power to charge, to bring it home for a few days power - I guess not that much different than going out for gas for a regular generator

I actually took a pretty deep dive into this a year or so ago. The town I work in has a free to use EV charger that’s almost never being used. I could park there during work hours, take all that free energy home and recharge a home battery (power wall or similar). Possibly even pair it with a solar array, though I don’t have a good south facing roofline (we’re oriented east/west). Was thinking I could nearly eliminate both home power costs (roughly $230 a month) AND gas cost for one vehicle (call it another $2,200 a year). The payback period for everything was terribly long.

That said, I do think a lot of this stuff is coming, and more and more of us will have these abilities in the next decade or so.

 

[Dragons]

Funny you mention this, as I was just considering getting one installed. Any FBG experience with powerwalls?

From what I can tell, the 13.5 kWh unit costs about $12K to install. HI currently has an $850/kW incentive on batteries supplying power to the grid, so it seems like they’re effectively free (actually better than free, by reducing external energy demands, and selling excess power).

What do I need to consider before taking the plunge? I have a PV system already that’s grid tied, which supplies most of of home energy needs. Will probably get an EV in the next 5 years as well.

If you will get a full rebate, its a no brainer just for power outages.

Otherwise, whether or not you have net metering and/or time of day rates are very important considerations for looking at a payback.

For example, for me in CT, with a PV system, net metering, a static rate and little to no rebate (I think there's a 30% federal tax credit), I would have virtually no payback as the grid is effectively my battery. However, I would still consider it for a power outage. People around here pay $10-15k for a natural gas automatic generators. As a stand-alone battery, it couldn't run as long as the natural gas option, but combined with PV it would recharge daily and actually allow me to use my PV generation during an outage.

We have net metering, and a state tax credit on top of the federal - 35 and 30% of the cost, respectively. Not sure about our energy rates.

The power almost never goes out for more than a few seconds/minutes, but I like the idea of not relying on the grid regardless. I also think there is talk of “smart grids”, where people with excess power generation effectively sell to their neighbors, as it’s more efficient than centralized power stations.

ETA Looks like there was a program with different time of use rates, but that closed for enrollment last year. I assume my energy rates are static then.

If I generate more than I use over a year period (settled up every March), I'm paid a wholesale rate (like $.02/kwh) vs. the ~$.12/kwh generation and another ~$.12/kwh for transmission for what I pull from the grid (and credited for what I send to the grid). I assume the smart grid idea would return more than the wholesale rate, but I think it would be more comparable to the generation rate than the all-in number that includes transmission. In this case, the netmetering is still worth more than the smart grid.

So for me, I don't think a smart grid would provide much (if any) additional payback. It might even be worse, if it sells to your neighbor instead of trading with the utility.

With your heavy rebates, and effectively a free system, I still think it's a no brainer for you. It will assist with the occasional 1-2 minute outage (no more resetting clocks) and be there if you have a longer outage every 5 years.

 

[FairWarning]

While “cool”, it’s also potentially pretty expensive. It not only adds some cost to the vehicle, but also to the house it’s plugged into. Ford sells a “kit” for their F150 that allows it to power a house during a power outage, but it’s like $5k. Given that the truck itself can be upwards of $90k, what’s another $5k?

A whole house generator is not inexpensive either

My uncle bought a generac for $12K. It uses natural gas though, something that may be a problem for many.

 

[The General]

Good stuff this last page.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

While 95% is too high of a barometer, I agree with those saying that when the change comes in general, it will happen fast.

Think about digital streaming. It was what, 5, maybe 10 years ago where if you poled people about digital streaming 90% of the responses would be "I'm never going to commit to that, I prefer to have a physical disk I can hold in my hand."?

Seems like these things always work the same. It's early adopters for a time while the masses say with exuberant authority that they will never use it, until one day all of them just start using it.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Yup. To me the power wall is just a whole house generator that’s white and needs the power to return in order to recharge.

Something else to consider is reusing the old battery from your first EV as a power wall. When the battery has degraded some and the range is down 30%, the car might be worth more as a power wall than as a vehicle.

Unless paired with a PV system, then it recharges itself. I don't think a Powerwall is worth it without one or the other (PV or Car to Home). I haven't given it a lot of thought, but I think even car to home would be a hassle in a long outage - driving somewhere with power to charge, to bring it home for a few days power - I guess not that much different than going out for gas for a regular generator

I actually took a pretty deep dive into this a year or so ago. The town I work in has a free to use EV charger that’s almost never being used. I could park there during work hours, take all that free energy home and recharge a home battery (power wall or similar). Possibly even pair it with a solar array, though I don’t have a good south facing roofline (we’re oriented east/west). Was thinking I could nearly eliminate both home power costs (roughly $230 a month) AND gas cost for one vehicle (call it another $2,200 a year). The payback period for everything was terribly long.

That said, I do think a lot of this stuff is coming, and more and more of us will have these abilities in the next decade or so.

So you could save roughly $4600/year, and the payback period was terribly long? How big a system are you talking about?

 

[matttyl]

Yup. To me the power wall is just a whole house generator that’s white and needs the power to return in order to recharge.

Something else to consider is reusing the old battery from your first EV as a power wall. When the battery has degraded some and the range is down 30%, the car might be worth more as a power wall than as a vehicle.

Unless paired with a PV system, then it recharges itself. I don't think a Powerwall is worth it without one or the other (PV or Car to Home). I haven't given it a lot of thought, but I think even car to home would be a hassle in a long outage - driving somewhere with power to charge, to bring it home for a few days power - I guess not that much different than going out for gas for a regular generator

I actually took a pretty deep dive into this a year or so ago. The town I work in has a free to use EV charger that’s almost never being used. I could park there during work hours, take all that free energy home and recharge a home battery (power wall or similar). Possibly even pair it with a solar array, though I don’t have a good south facing roofline (we’re oriented east/west). Was thinking I could nearly eliminate both home power costs (roughly $230 a month) AND gas cost for one vehicle (call it another $2,200 a year). The payback period for everything was terribly long.

That said, I do think a lot of this stuff is coming, and more and more of us will have these abilities in the next decade or so.

So you could save roughly $4600/year, and the payback period was terribly long? How big a system are you talking about?

Well, the above describes a ~$45k EV, a $30k solar system (as of last quote), and a power wall or equivalent which start around $12k before install.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Well, the above describes a ~$45k EV, a $30k solar system (as of last quote), and a power wall or equivalent which start around $12k before install.

I'm not sure it's fair to include the EV price in the equation, as just about any vehicle is a sh!tty ROI. I guess you could compare it to whatever ICE vehicle you'd buy instead, but do people really purchase regular cars as investments? And power walls are around $12K installed (they're ~$9K to purchase separately, before rebates).

With those caveats, you'd be spending about the same as me for PV + battery. I don't know about your state incentives, but it's crazy to think my payback is only 4 years, according to this site. Not terribly long at all.

 

[matttyl]

Well, the above describes a ~$45k EV, a $30k solar system (as of last quote), and a power wall or equivalent which start around $12k before install.

I'm not sure it's fair to include the EV price in the equation, as just about any vehicle is a sh!tty ROI. I guess you could compare it to whatever ICE vehicle you'd buy instead, but do people really purchase regular cars as investments? And power walls are around $12K installed (they're ~$9K to purchase separately, before rebates).

With those caveats, you'd be spending about the same as me for PV + battery. I don't know about your state incentives, but it's crazy to think my payback is only 4 years, according to this site. Not terribly long at all.

Maybe not fair to include the whole price, and I understand it’s not an “investment” - but it would be an integral part in all this. So maybe at least consider the cost between it and an equivalent ICE car? Regardless, just the solar quote I was given two years ago illustrated a break even point at over 10 years out. It actually didn’t give a break even point, but my total annual electricity expense is about 2,800 (which wouldn’t be reduced to zero as I’d still be grid tied with a minimum monthly bill), and the cost of the solar install was over $27k (without battery/power wall).

 

[Terminalxylem]

Well, the above describes a ~$45k EV, a $30k solar system (as of last quote), and a power wall or equivalent which start around $12k before install.

I'm not sure it's fair to include the EV price in the equation, as just about any vehicle is a sh!tty ROI. I guess you could compare it to whatever ICE vehicle you'd buy instead, but do people really purchase regular cars as investments? And power walls are around $12K installed (they're ~$9K to purchase separately, before rebates).

With those caveats, you'd be spending about the same as me for PV + battery. I don't know about your state incentives, but it's crazy to think my payback is only 4 years, according to this site. Not terribly long at all.

Maybe not fair to include the whole price, and I understand it’s not an “investment” - but it would be an integral part in all this. So maybe at least consider the cost between it and an equivalent ICE car? Regardless, just the solar quote I was given two years ago illustrated a break even point at over 10 years out. It actually didn’t give a break even point, but my total annual electricity expense is about 2,800 (which wouldn’t be reduced to zero as I’d still be grid tied with a minimum monthly bill), and the cost of the solar install was over $27k (without battery/power wall).

I‘m not great at math, but $27K/~$2800 is already less than 10 years. And that doesn’t factor in the 30% federal tax credit, plus whatever your state offers. Or energy prices increasing.

My guess is your PV payback is closer to 6-7 years, unless you already factored all those things into your numbers. That still may be too long, but a lot more reasonable imo, and comparable to the 4 year number I‘m getting, in a sunnier place.

 

[bcat01]

Ohio is updating a bunch of rest stops and the Governor said it was against federal law to put in charging stations. If we are to get to 95% they are going to need to change the law. No one will use rest stops if they can't charge.

 

[matttyl]

Well, the above describes a ~$45k EV, a $30k solar system (as of last quote), and a power wall or equivalent which start around $12k before install.

I'm not sure it's fair to include the EV price in the equation, as just about any vehicle is a sh!tty ROI. I guess you could compare it to whatever ICE vehicle you'd buy instead, but do people really purchase regular cars as investments? And power walls are around $12K installed (they're ~$9K to purchase separately, before rebates).

With those caveats, you'd be spending about the same as me for PV + battery. I don't know about your state incentives, but it's crazy to think my payback is only 4 years, according to this site. Not terribly long at all.

Maybe not fair to include the whole price, and I understand it’s not an “investment” - but it would be an integral part in all this. So maybe at least consider the cost between it and an equivalent ICE car? Regardless, just the solar quote I was given two years ago illustrated a break even point at over 10 years out. It actually didn’t give a break even point, but my total annual electricity expense is about 2,800 (which wouldn’t be reduced to zero as I’d still be grid tied with a minimum monthly bill), and the cost of the solar install was over $27k (without battery/power wall).

I‘m not great at math, but $27K/~$2800 is already less than 10 years. And that doesn’t factor in the 30% federal tax credit, plus whatever your state offers. Or energy prices increasing.

My guess is your PV payback is closer to 6-7 years, unless you already factored all those things into your numbers. That still may be too long, but a lot more reasonable imo, and comparable to the 4 year number I‘m getting, in a sunnier place.

Actually accounts for tax credit (well, accounts for a 26% credit which is now 30%). State doesn’t offer anything (Virginia). Also, it won’t completely eliminate my electric bill, as there is an access charge of $15, and then whatever electric I’ll still need that I’m not producing - and the quote I was given was a unit that was generating about 80% of my usage - and that usage was without an EV.

 

[the moops]

Ohio is updating a bunch of rest stops and the Governor said it was against federal law to put in charging stations. If we are to get to 95% they are going to need to change the law. No one will use rest stops if they can't charge.

Yea that is a dumb law that needs changing.

But also, we are talking about just rest stops where there are currently no gas stations or anything. The federal law prohibits "commercial activity". Having charging stations at those areas would be very helpful, but I don't think necessary.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Well, the above describes a ~$45k EV, a $30k solar system (as of last quote), and a power wall or equivalent which start around $12k before install.

I'm not sure it's fair to include the EV price in the equation, as just about any vehicle is a sh!tty ROI. I guess you could compare it to whatever ICE vehicle you'd buy instead, but do people really purchase regular cars as investments? And power walls are around $12K installed (they're ~$9K to purchase separately, before rebates).

With those caveats, you'd be spending about the same as me for PV + battery. I don't know about your state incentives, but it's crazy to think my payback is only 4 years, according to this site. Not terribly long at all.

Maybe not fair to include the whole price, and I understand it’s not an “investment” - but it would be an integral part in all this. So maybe at least consider the cost between it and an equivalent ICE car? Regardless, just the solar quote I was given two years ago illustrated a break even point at over 10 years out. It actually didn’t give a break even point, but my total annual electricity expense is about 2,800 (which wouldn’t be reduced to zero as I’d still be grid tied with a minimum monthly bill), and the cost of the solar install was over $27k (without battery/power wall).

I‘m not great at math, but $27K/~$2800 is already less than 10 years. And that doesn’t factor in the 30% federal tax credit, plus whatever your state offers. Or energy prices increasing.

My guess is your PV payback is closer to 6-7 years, unless you already factored all those things into your numbers. That still may be too long, but a lot more reasonable imo, and comparable to the 4 year number I‘m getting, in a sunnier place.

Actually accounts for tax credit (well, accounts for a 26% credit which is now 30%). State doesn’t offer anything (Virginia). Also, it won’t completely eliminate my electric bill, as there is an access charge of $15, and then whatever electric I’ll still need that I’m not producing - and the quote I was given was a unit that was generating about 80% of my usage - and that usage was without an EV.

Fair enough. Still pretty surprising how big a difference local policy makes. Obviously, abundant sun and a south facing roof helps, but I wouldn’t expect 3-4X difference between HI and VI.

Just another reason we should temper our expectation of EV adoption.

 

[Dragons]

Huge news in the EV world: Ford EVs will gain access to Tesla's superscharger network, using the Ford app and an adapter, and future generation Ford vehicles will come installed with the Tesla charging standard.

Ford EVs will use Tesla’s charging plug starting next year

And next year, Fords can fast-charge on Tesla’s chargers.

www.theverge.com