When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US? (1 Viewer)

[Uruk-Hai]

For that to happen, we need for EVs to evolve to the point that they completely replace IC for the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

The typical household does no such thing though, so maybe those holdouts are the 5%ers

That's what I mean. You need to capture the bass-boat people to get to 95% market share. You can't get there by replacing people's going-to-the-store vehicle.

But i think you can. The bass boat crew is a small percentage of the population. I don’t think you need to capture them to get to 95

Construction's a huge user of fossils. I have one small project going that's burning $5k/week in off-road diesel fuel. I've had projects use over $100,000/week of that stuff.

 

[Gally]

So I would ask the same thing of you. Your drive may take 18 hours rather than 16. But that is 1.5 hours extra every 1.5 years seems trivial. Especially if you factor in never having to go to a gas station leading up to that trip. Think of how many hours you save when all those 5-10 minute gas station stops never happen!

But today, it is more than just that type of "savings" that factor into the decision. The infrastructure currently isn't in place to support the flexibility that is wanted/needed by people. So today, this isn't really all that matters.

Eventually the infrastructure will be there and the technology will be better and people will convert. Today is not that day (for most people).

 

[Joe Bryant]

2035 although I believe 2040 is the best answer.(but not an option)

Thank you.

Do we know what the % is today for ICE engine car sales in the US?

Can you elaborate how and why you think it'll go from that number to 5% in 17 years?

This is from Ernst And Young

• Despite headwinds, combined electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe to outstrip all other engine sales by 2030
• By 2040, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales
• Europe is expected to lead electric vehicle sales volumes until 2024, with China taking the lead from 2025 onward.

Do you have a link please?

 

[Doug B]

Right now, people buying these cars used have to wonder how much life is left in a battery. No no no, we need to be able to swap these out for a charged one.

This is a perfect example of how perspective affects problem-solving. There's no underlying reason an EV battery has to be treated as if it's a form of gas tank.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Also - I hate this about EV haters. Yes, electricity is generated from fossil fuels and our EVs are powered by those fuels. However, there are advancements to renewable all the time. Eventually, we (hopefully) can get to 100% renewables to generate electricity. The internal combustion engine has zero chance at that

Interesting on a couple of points.

I think people can have questions about Electric Vehicles without being "EV Haters".
I also don't hate objections people have to viewpoints different than mine.

 

[the moops]

Also - I hate this about EV haters. Yes, electricity is generated from fossil fuels and our EVs are powered by those fuels. However, there are advancements to renewable all the time. Eventually, we (hopefully) can get to 100% renewables to generate electricity. The internal combustion engine has zero chance at that

Interesting on a couple of points.

I think people can have questions about Electric Vehicles without being "EV Haters".
I also don't hate objections people have to viewpoints different than mine.

I don't hate different veiwpoints. It appeared from your post that your buddy likes to give your other buddy **** for owning a Tesla. I have another friend who tells the Tesla owner his car is effectively powered by coal.

I question that guys motives

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I think a lot will come down to government mandate too. Even if the traditional OEM shift to 100% EV I’m sure Freedom Motors or whatever would pop up and keep pumping out ICE pickup trucks

 

[Doug B]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

 

[Doug B]

i just don't have the vision for say driving from NJ to Florida which I do every few years and having to stop for 45 minutes to charge my car.

I feel like that add so much wasted time on the trip

Today's technology.

 

[thecatch]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

 

[Doug B]

You need to capture the bass-boat people to get to 95% market share. You can't get there by replacing people's going-to-the-store vehicle.

IME, the latter outnumber the former several hundred to one (maybe more than that). And remember, I live in Louisiana not Brooklyn or San Francisco. Sportsman's Paradise here. Plenty of recreational fisherman and hunters here -- almost none ever towing boats two states away.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

Yes, I know that median US household does not own a boat. But to get to 95% market penetration, you need to capture the median guy who owns a boat. Or the median family that likes to take road trips. The question in OP isn't focusing on the early adopters -- it's asking us when we think the late adopters are going to switch to EVs. That's going to take a while.

For example, it would be very easy for my household to go from 100% ICE to 50/50. Right now, I have a car and my wife has a car, and both of them burn gasoline. But we live in a town of about 20,000 people. I could bike to work if I wanted to, at least when the weather is nice. I drive fewer than 10 miles during a typical day. I could easily replace my car with an EV that just gets me around town, while hanging onto my wife's IC vehicle for roadtrips. Easy peasy. Except that doesn't get you to 95% market share. To get a household like mine to go 100% electric, you can't just replace my going-to-work-and-back vehicle. You have to replace our "road trip" vehicle too. That's the sticking point, and I don't see how you get around it without significant, qualitative improvements in battery life and/or infrastructure.

 

[the moops]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

We aren't that far off though. The Ford Lightning has a 320 mile range. That is two states away for a lot of people

 

[Joe Bryant]

Yes, I know that median US household does not own a boat. But to get to 95% market penetration, you need to capture the median guy who owns a boat. Or the median family that likes to take road trips. The question in OP isn't focusing on the early adopters -- it's asking us when we think the late adopters are going to switch to EVs. That's going to take a while.

Thank you. It seems odd that some see the question as if Electric Vehicles will ever have a presence. It's pretty obvious they have a presence already. The question I asked in the poll is not about early adoption.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I question that guys motives

Wow. I also don't jump to questioning someone's motives when they raise an objection. Especially someone I know nothing about.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

In fairness, this could be accomplished in two ways. We could make charging stations as ubiquitous as gas stations are today. Or we could make gas stations as rare and hard to find as charging stations are today

I'm not convinced that building charging stations will be the solution at all. I don't know who or exactly how, but I still assume that electric cars on highways at least in the not so distant future will be charged as they go. Yeah, I know this has its own hurdles and staggering number of miles to touch to implement, but it seems much more feasible to me once critical mass is achieved to standardize and monetize. (And I get that essentially turning the highway system into toll roads, possibly all operated by private companies is one big political hurdle with this idea.)

Of course this assuming that the solution(s) isn't even further "outside the box" than what I can imagine.

 

[Willy]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

We aren't that far off though. The Ford Lightning has a 320 mile range. That is two states away for a lot of people

The new RAM truck ev is said to have 500 miles range.

 

[The General]

Another related, but very important question I think.

How is the electricity in the US mostly generated?

My best friend loves his Tesla. I have another friend who tells the Tesla owner his car is effectively powered by coal.

I think this depends where you live.

 

[the moops]

I question that guys motives

Wow. I also don't jump to questioning someone's motives when they raise an objection. Especially someone I know nothing about.

Why else is he ****ting on the guy for liking his Tesla by trying to point out (falsely) that his car is powered by coal?

 

[BassNBrew]

I saw a very cool video of some Chinese (Korean) startup where cars were sitting on these racks, and a charged battery was swapped out underneath. So, fully charged in less time than a gas fill up.

I love this model. There is/was a Chinese company (NIO) that was pushing this big time. You pull into a garage, and in like 2 minutes, a fully charged battery pack is swapped by some robot. You go on your way. I think that is a great model and wish it gained more traction

This is one of the things I expect. I mean some paradigm shifting thing that we aren't currently thinking of will make it a lot more feasible to migrate to these sooner than later.

It's like the move to the new gas cans. The first ones sucked, but now they've engineered them in a way that they are way better than the old ones.
Same with low flow shower heads, 1.8 gal toilets, LED lights, etc. etc.

Technology will find a way to fix most of the problems people are currently worried about.

It's like the move to the new gas cans. The first ones sucked, but now they've engineered them in a way that they are way better than the old ones.
Same with low flow shower heads, 1.8 gal toilets, LED lights, etc. etc.

Unless there's something new in the last year that I haven't seen, the new gas cans still stink. Takes two hands to use them and I end up spilling more gas now than I used too. Give me that old 18 inch flex spout.

Never used to have a clogged toilet, now it's a common occurrence. Pretty much flush mid dump now so I'm not saving any water.

Low flow shower head....hate waiting two minutes to flush all the cold water out of the line.

The only item you bring up that I love is the LED bulb. Of course it's $3-$4 a bulb where the old ones were a quarter.

 

[John123]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

We aren't that far off though. The Ford Lightning has a 320 mile range. That is two states away for a lot of people

Is that with or without a load? I mean, is it going to go 320 miles with my trailer full of ATV's or a boat attached?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

My main thing would be in the secondary market not to get rid of a gas powered car but maybe find a place to stash it until a profit is to be made. The first laws will concern brand new vehicles so used cars should continue to go up.

 

[Gally]

Is that with or without a load? I mean, is it going to go 320 miles with my trailer full of ATV's or a boat attached?

Don't worry....by then the ATV's and boats will also be EV so you have to figure that out too...hahaha

 

[the moops]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

We aren't that far off though. The Ford Lightning has a 320 mile range. That is two states away for a lot of people

Is that with or without a load? I mean, is it going to go 320 miles with my trailer full of ATV's or a boat attached?

Don't know. Probably unloaded though

 

[The General]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

We aren't that far off though. The Ford Lightning has a 320 mile range. That is two states away for a lot of people

Is that with or without a load? I mean, is it going to go 320 miles with my trailer full of ATV's or a boat attached?

Don't know. Probably unloaded though

I doubt there's anyway that is with with a load, the car companies will always give best case, best situation (as they do with MPG).

This tech is all still in its infancy.

 

[John123]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

We aren't that far off though. The Ford Lightning has a 320 mile range. That is two states away for a lot of people

Is that with or without a load? I mean, is it going to go 320 miles with my trailer full of ATV's or a boat attached?

Don't know. Probably unloaded though

Doing some quick research it looks like with a decent load you're looking at 50% of the unloaded range, at best. So, 160 miles is your best case scenario. But if you were in a gas vehicle how close to empty would you be willing to go? Not to mention one difference between a gas vehicle and an EV is the ability to take a gas can to get get the energy and bring it back. With an EV if you run out of fuel it's a bit more problematic.

 

[The General]

... the typical household who wants to be able to pull a boat to their cabin two states over a few times each summer.

I actually think what you've described in this sentence is a niche use case -- not at all a typical household in the overall U.S. IMHO.

It may be niche usage but I think a significantly higher percentage of people want the freedom to do something like that even if, as a practical matter, they are unlikely to ever do so.

We aren't that far off though. The Ford Lightning has a 320 mile range. That is two states away for a lot of people

Is that with or without a load? I mean, is it going to go 320 miles with my trailer full of ATV's or a boat attached?

Don't know. Probably unloaded though

Doing some quick research it looks like with a decent load you're looking at 50% of the unloaded range, at best. So, 160 miles is your best case scenario. But if you were in a gas vehicle how close to empty would you be willing to go? Not to mention one difference between a gas vehicle and an EV is the ability to take a gas can to get get the energy and bring it back. With an EV if you run out of fuel it's a bit more problematic.

This is def a consideration - range anxiety. You def don't want to run out of charge completely. That would be very bad.

 

[Joe Bryant]

2035 although I believe 2040 is the best answer.(but not an option)

Thank you.

Do we know what the % is today for ICE engine car sales in the US?

Can you elaborate how and why you think it'll go from that number to 5% in 17 years?

This is from Ernst And Young

• Despite headwinds, combined electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe to outstrip all other engine sales by 2030
• By 2040, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales
• Europe is expected to lead electric vehicle sales volumes until 2024, with China taking the lead from 2025 onward.

What's the link for the Ernst and Young quote?

 

[New Binky the Doormat]

2035 although I believe 2040 is the best answer.(but not an option)

Thank you.

Do we know what the % is today for ICE engine car sales in the US?

Can you elaborate how and why you think it'll go from that number to 5% in 17 years?

This is from Ernst And Young

• Despite headwinds, combined electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe to outstrip all other engine sales by 2030
• By 2040, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales
• Europe is expected to lead electric vehicle sales volumes until 2024, with China taking the lead from 2025 onward.

What's the link for the Ernst and Young quote?

he likely got it from this press release from E&Y

Electric vehicles continue charge toward sales dominance – EY analysis

LONDON, 5th January. Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe will outstrip all other engines three years sooner than previously expected, according to new EY research and analysis.

www.ey.com

 

[Scoresman]

I'm fine moving to electric but it needs to get cheaper and quicker. I'll never understand people who get electric cars without the ability to install a charger where they live and have to spend an hour for the equivalent of filling up a tank of gas.

 

[the moops]

2035 although I believe 2040 is the best answer.(but not an option)

Thank you.

Do we know what the % is today for ICE engine car sales in the US?

Can you elaborate how and why you think it'll go from that number to 5% in 17 years?

This is from Ernst And Young

• Despite headwinds, combined electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe to outstrip all other engine sales by 2030
• By 2040, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will shrink to less than 1% of overall sales
• Europe is expected to lead electric vehicle sales volumes until 2024, with China taking the lead from 2025 onward.

What's the link for the Ernst and Young quote?

Electric vehicles continue charge toward sales dominance – EY analysis

LONDON, 5th January. Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US, China and Europe will outstrip all other engines three years sooner than previously expected, according to new EY research and analysis.

www.ey.com

 

[the moops]

I'll never understand people who get electric cars without the ability to install a charger where they live and have to spend an hour for the equivalent of filling up a tank of gas.

Are there a lot of people who are doing this? Honest question. Every EV owner I know either charges at home or at work

 

[Scoresman]

I'll never understand people who get electric cars without the ability to install a charger where they live and have to spend an hour for the equivalent of filling up a tank of gas.

Are there a lot of people who are doing this? Honest question. Every EV owner I know either charges at home or at work

I worked with people who did but granted, this was pre-COVID.

 

[Doug B]

Yes, I know that median US household does not own a boat. But to get to 95% market penetration, you need to capture the median guy who owns a boat.

... maybe the specific percentage isn't that important, then. IOW, maybe "Virtually everyone drives an EV and infrastructure can/does prioritize EVs over ICEs" happens at 92% or 90% or 85% or something.

Reminds me a lot of how fast it all went from "everybody has cable television" to "everyone has streaming television". I know, streaming penetration still isn't 100%, and I'm glossing totally over satellite television. But still -- a sea change can take society along whether everyone games it all out in advance or not.

 

[pollardsvision]

I have nothing to add here. I have no clue.
But being skeptical of future EV adoption rates in the US does not make someone an EV hater or mean they have an agenda.

I think we'd all love most the economical form of transport possible.......Actually, looking at American car buying behavior over the past century, we definitely can't say that.

It's not surprising that the first company to make major headway in EV adoption here (Tesla) didn't do it by being appealing as an economical form of transport. Americans didn't want EV's until they became status symbols.

Anyway, I can't predict what Americans will do because I have no idea why we do what we do.

 

[massraider]

It's not surprising that the first company to make major headway in EV adoption here (Tesla) didn't do it by being appealing as an economical form of transport. Americans didn't want EV's until they became status symbols

If America decides the electric F-150 is awesome, I might change my answer.

 

[titusbramble]

Until someone puts a trillion solar panels across half of Arizona and Nevada (once they have found the resources to build them that don't involve the exploitation of African child labour), and has the requisite battery storage to hold the harnessed power, and has the distribution network to shift that electricity to the point of consumption, basically never

 

[TripItUp]

"never"

"not in my lifetime"

some interesting responses in this thread

 

[TripItUp]

A lot of posters quick to point out what they perceive to be challenges while assuming there are no solutions.

Bizarre.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.

I think they're related, and acceptance of autonomous drivers could really speed up the transition to EV. TBH, I'm kinda surprised how resistant people seem to the idea.

You're probably right about an abrupt transition, as that is how widespread adoption of technology generally occurs.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

(once they have found the resources to build them that don't involve the exploitation of African child labour)

Fingers crossed that the $4 quadrillion guestimate is true.

 

[ChiefD]

It's not surprising that the first company to make major headway in EV adoption here (Tesla) didn't do it by being appealing as an economical form of transport. Americans didn't want EV's until they became status symbols

If America decides the electric F-150 is awesome, I might change my answer.

I saw one at the dealership a few weeks ago when I was getting an oil change. They ARE awesome.

Just speaking initial impression here.

 

[New Binky the Doormat]

A lot of posters quick to point out what they perceive to be challenges while assuming there are no solutions.

Bizarre.

you and mooops here seem to think any questioning of the E&Y study predictions are dinosaurs and "preventers of progress".

there is no reason not to support the move to electric cars - but the point it seems some people are trying to make here is that it's important to plan for knowing that we have the generation to support that amount of reliable power.

we're already assuming a generational change in the move from gas stations to electric charging/change out stations - yeah, that will have to happen.

not enough people understand that there is a touchy trade-off between desirable sources of generation and reliability/flexibility in electric generation and delivery.

 

[Joe Bryant]

But being skeptical of future EV adoption rates in the US does not make someone an EV hater or mean they have an agenda.

Thank you.

 

[TripItUp]

A lot of posters quick to point out what they perceive to be challenges while assuming there are no solutions.

Bizarre.

you and mooops here seem to think any questioning of the E&Y study predictions are dinosaurs and "preventers of progress".

What's bizarre to me is that people completely dismiss what is inevitable.

Trillions of dollars are being invested into alternatives to the ICE. To ignore that kind of momentum just seems bizarre to me. Regardless of what EY says.

I posted multiple articles here to support my stance. I've yet to see a reputable article to argue otherwise.

 

[TripItUp]

If you look at the recent history of technology, it's actually amazing that the ICE has held on as long as it has.

It was a good run.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

Not really the topic of the thread, but:

I think both the transition to electric vehicles and the transition to autonomous vehicles will happen fairly suddenly. From "not really on the horizon" to "ubiquitous" within a 10-15 time frame.

I can't think off anything I want less than autonomous vehicle.......

I disagree, I mean assuming it's safe.

I'd love to see a car where I relax and read my emails, play on xbox or something instead of white-knuckling it through another rush hour. That is a long way off, but I would love that.

No kidding. While I chose my car because it is fun to drive, 99% of driving is tedium + people are getting more aggro by the day. And who enjoys driving in traffic?

Seem likely autonomous vehicles are already safer than the alternative.

 

[New Binky the Doormat]

A lot of posters quick to point out what they perceive to be challenges while assuming there are no solutions.

Bizarre.

you and mooops here seem to think any questioning of the E&Y study predictions are dinosaurs and "preventers of progress".

What's bizarre to me is that people completely dismiss what is inevitable.

Trillions of dollars are being invested into alternatives to the ICE. To ignore that kind of momentum just seems bizarre to me. Regardless of what EY says.

I posted multiple articles here to support my stance. I've yet to see a reputable article to argue otherwise.

geezus trip - your dedication to this matter is clear and that's fine ...I am have ZERO emotional ties to this issue.

I will gladly drive an electric vehicle if I knew the infrastructure was there and more importantly I knew the generation was there to support not only that but all the other electric power needs I have when I am at home ...and the companies/factories that make stuff and support jobs have ready power.

 

[FairWarning]

Just as important, how will the government make up for the missing fuel taxes?

 

[beer 30]

If America decides the electric F-150 is awesome, I might change my answer.

If you’re ever in Fort Mill, SC I could probably hook you up with a test drive with one of the 366 we have sitting around.