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When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US? (1 Viewer)

When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US?


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Bummer. Hopefully they’ll replace it with something other than an EV truck or SUV. Entry level EV cars are few and far between.

They will be cheaper than entry level ICEs soon enough...much much simpler mechanically.

The focus now is on making batteries cheaper which is going to happen.
I hope you‘re right, though I don’t think mechanical complexity drives the price.

From an overall cost perspective including maintenance, warranty, insurance etc. The simplicity of the EV is going to be a huge money saver over the life of the car.
I understand EVs saving money from less moving parts breaking down, no oil changes and fuel costs. But are warranties and insurance cheaper?

ETA Have you looked at Tesla reliability ratings lately?
 
It seems far away, like 50+ years. EV vehicles are still too expensive, and the oil industry is gonna fight it tooth and nail.

I hope I'm wrong. TBH, I'd rather autonomous vehicles supplant private car ownership, though that doesn't seem imminent either.

I would actually say the opposite, and that the oil industry has pretty much resigned itself to losing a ton of market share.

This is a good video on it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQbmpecxS2w

Cliffs notes is basically that oil companies have completed stopped building new pipelines and new rigs for the future in order to maximize profits for the present, as they're worried demand won't last long enough for those kinds of long-term projects to pay off anymore.

Additionally in the past when new technologies came out that threatened them they would typically increase supply to drive down oil prices (why do we need hybrids/EVs if gas is cheap anyway?) but now even with EVs they've done the complete opposite and restricted supply to further drive up the price of oil (to maximize near-term profits) at the expense of people getting more and more annoyed with having to buy gas.
I hope you’re right, as it would be great to see oil’s influence on world politics dry up.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
 
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Bummer. Hopefully they’ll replace it with something other than an EV truck or SUV. Entry level EV cars are few and far between.

They will be cheaper than entry level ICEs soon enough...much much simpler mechanically.

The focus now is on making batteries cheaper which is going to happen.
I hope you‘re right, though I don’t think mechanical complexity drives the price.

From an overall cost perspective including maintenance, warranty, insurance etc. The simplicity of the EV is going to be a huge money saver over the life of the car.
I understand EVs saving money from less moving parts breaking down, no oil changes and fuel costs. But are warranties and insurance cheaper?

ETA Have you looked at Tesla reliability ratings lately?
Warranty would have to cost the company less to offer as it’s covering fewer things. It doesn’t have to cover, say, a water pump, a radiator, a timing chain, a clutch. With fewer moving parts that could break down, the cost to insure an EV from breaking down would be less than the cost to insure an ICE from breaking down.

The idea on insurance is that Teslas (specifically) have fewer accidents due to all the safety equipment built in. Collision detection and cameras all over and such. I know they looked into getting into the insurance game themselves, but I haven’t looked into that lately. You can watch videos of them trying to roll/flip a Tesla 3 or Y and it’s virtually impossible to due to the very low center of gravity. With all that, at least in theory, it would cost less to insure against accidents and very costly medical claims.
 
Bummer. Hopefully they’ll replace it with something other than an EV truck or SUV. Entry level EV cars are few and far between.

They will be cheaper than entry level ICEs soon enough...much much simpler mechanically.

The focus now is on making batteries cheaper which is going to happen.
I hope you‘re right, though I don’t think mechanical complexity drives the price.

From an overall cost perspective including maintenance, warranty, insurance etc. The simplicity of the EV is going to be a huge money saver over the life of the car.
I understand EVs saving money from less moving parts breaking down, no oil changes and fuel costs. But are warranties and insurance cheaper?

ETA Have you looked at Tesla reliability ratings lately?
3 years in and have spent $90 on a filter replacement. They came to my house to replace it. Had to go in one time because a software update didn’t complete but that was free. That’s it., is crazy.

Insurance is about 10 bucks more a month than wife’s car 2016 Audi. No clue with all the bundling how that is working out.

WA has progressive cost on plates, so value determines cost. There is an additional charge for EV’s of around 250 I think per year (since not paying gas taxes).
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
 
But are warranties and insurance cheaper?
My insurance did not change from insuring an older Toyota Camry hybrid to our new Bolt. Just one anecdote obviously. It does look like on average they cost more to insure, but that is mainly a function of them having a higher price tag in general, and nothing specific to them being electric
 
So nearly 28% of poll respondents selected after 2075.

That's pretty shocking to me.

Really, the 2075 response doesn't have anything to do with EV's.

It's about America. Energy efficient just isn't what we do. Especially in the car market. Actually, "vehicle market" because American automakers don't really make cars anymore. Americans don't buy them.

We want trucks, SUV's, and 6000 square foot homes with 3 people living in them.

Just makes it hard imagine an America with everybody driving around in Nissan Leaf's (leaves?).

Although, I could see an America with everybody driving 8000 pound F-150 Lightnings.
Here's the thing... EV vs ICE should be a choice consumers make. Not something mandated (one way or the other). To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs. Unless the cost of one or the other becomes unmanageable, or the US becomes a communist country, I don't see that happening.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
I think you are making up numbers to make it sound much worse than it is in reality.

The F150 lightning is a slow charging vehicle by electric standards, however to go from 20-80% in about an hour based on browsing reddit/lightning forums. A Rivian truck can do 20-80% in 40 minutes.

The last 20% is much slower of course.

These numbers are not great yet, however tech will continue to improve.
 
So nearly 28% of poll respondents selected after 2075.

That's pretty shocking to me.

Really, the 2075 response doesn't have anything to do with EV's.

It's about America. Energy efficient just isn't what we do. Especially in the car market. Actually, "vehicle market" because American automakers don't really make cars anymore. Americans don't buy them.

We want trucks, SUV's, and 6000 square foot homes with 3 people living in them.

Just makes it hard imagine an America with everybody driving around in Nissan Leaf's (leaves?).

Although, I could see an America with everybody driving 8000 pound F-150 Lightnings.
Here's the thing... EV vs ICE should be a choice consumers make. Not something mandated (one way or the other). To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs. Unless the cost of one or the other becomes unmanageable, or the US becomes a communist country, I don't see that happening.

Why?

We were not a communist country when we banned leaded gasoline vehicles. We got rid of them because of the harm we knew they were causing.

I live in Houston and I cannot wait for electric vehicles to take over, ~25 years from now when the majority of vehicles are electric and our air quality is much better we will look back in amazement of the crappy air quality we were forced to breath and wonder why people defended burning noxious fuel when a pollution free transportation was available.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Diminishing marginal returns. It isn't especially surprising that the first doubling of range is pretty straightforward, the next doubling is more difficult, and the next doubling is extremely difficult.

"Midwestern mileage" is just shorthand for the observation that people who live in the non-urban interior part of the country tend to drive more that people on the coasts and/or in cities. You can't get to 95% market share by just selling to people who live in cities and just need a vehicle to get to Whole Foods and back. You have to be able to sell to the guy who wants to take his boat to the lake. Your state of Minnesota has about 14,500 boats for every 100,000 people, so it's not some rare, exotic thing. And that's just boats, which again I'm just using as a concrete example. You can toss in snowmobiles, jet-skis, campers, etc. Those are probably going to be some of the last adopters of EVs, and it doesn't strike me as preposterous that it might take a while to get batteries to the point that they meet the needs of that market segment.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

To anyone who might know:

Why is a multiple-battery EV not a thing? Seems obvious that if range is a problem, you multiply the power sources. I understand they're heavy ... but are they "kinda heavy" or "crazy heavy"? Like 5-10% of an EV's weight vs. 30-50% of an EV's weight?

In any case, this seems like a solvable engineering problem, even if an optimum solution is not in place right now in the EV market.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).

It is not just about distance. But when the range is 325-340 and you are getting 225 that is an issue. In winter months the average has gone down as well.

First of all affordability is #1 factor. Right now Ford and GM are not making any money off EVs so it is going to take a long time to bring prices down to the average consumer. Even then just as now many won`t be to afford the product.
 
To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs.

This kind of thing has happened many times in US history, though. I fully assume that the people of 2050-2060 will think very differently from the people of today.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

To anyone who might know:

Why is a multiple-battery EV not a thing? Seems obvious that if range is a problem, you multiply the power sources. I understand they're heavy ... but are they "kinda heavy" or "crazy heavy"? Like 5-10% of an EV's weight vs. 30-50% of an EV's weight?

In any case, this seems like a solvable engineering problem, even if an optimum solution is not in place right now in the EV market.

Again cost factors in. EV batteries go be anywhere from 7-8K to 20K.

Middle that out and tacking on13-14K to an already expensive vehicle and then the added size and weight of the battery and that probably won`t happen unless battery size is drastically reduced.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
I think you are making up numbers to make it sound much worse than it is in reality.

The F150 lightning is a slow charging vehicle by electric standards, however to go from 20-80% in about an hour based on browsing reddit/lightning forums. A Rivian truck can do 20-80% in 40 minutes.

The last 20% is much slower of course.

These numbers are not great yet, however tech will continue to improve.
Link to video, I literally just saw it yesterday….


And yes, was off a bit. 14 hours to full charge, not 17. Regardless it’s “overnight”. Go to ~8:45 in the video to see timeline with 50 amp plug. Earlier in the video they had the timeline for the standard 120 plug.
 
To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs.

This kind of thing has happened many times in US history, though. I fully assume that the people of 2050-2060 will think very differently from the people of today.
We can only hope...
It's not about changing how consumers think -- if that's your strategy, you're going to fail. EVs will naturally take off on their own once they get to the point that they provide a good value proposition. They already do that for lots of people now. Their uptake is being limited by (a) cost concerns and (b) range/convenience concerns. Those are both solvable problems, just not solvable by this time tomorrow.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
I think you are making up numbers to make it sound much worse than it is in reality.

The F150 lightning is a slow charging vehicle by electric standards, however to go from 20-80% in about an hour based on browsing reddit/lightning forums. A Rivian truck can do 20-80% in 40 minutes.

The last 20% is much slower of course.

These numbers are not great yet, however tech will continue to improve.
Link to video, I literally just saw it yesterday….


And yes, was off a bit. 14 hours to full charge, not 17. Regardless it’s “overnight”. Go to ~8:45 in the video to see timeline with 50 amp plug. Earlier in the video they had the timeline for the standard 120 plug.

That video shows what is is like to charge at a campground, but in your first post you said the below, which is false. Most electric vehicle owners are not charging at a campground, they are charging at fast charging stations which charge much faster than what you are claiming.

On road trips you do not spend 14 hours on each charge.

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
 
So nearly 28% of poll respondents selected after 2075.

That's pretty shocking to me.

Really, the 2075 response doesn't have anything to do with EV's.

It's about America. Energy efficient just isn't what we do. Especially in the car market. Actually, "vehicle market" because American automakers don't really make cars anymore. Americans don't buy them.

We want trucks, SUV's, and 6000 square foot homes with 3 people living in them.

Just makes it hard imagine an America with everybody driving around in Nissan Leaf's (leaves?).

Although, I could see an America with everybody driving 8000 pound F-150 Lightnings.
Here's the thing... EV vs ICE should be a choice consumers make. Not something mandated (one way or the other). To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs. Unless the cost of one or the other becomes unmanageable, or the US becomes a communist country, I don't see that happening.

I don't believe EVs will need to be mandated by the (US) government in order to reach 95% new sales by 2035. This will happen with market forces. A certain segment of the population may not want to switch to an EV, even when the purchase price, cost of fueling, cost of ongoing maintenance and technological advantages outweigh purchasing an ICE vehicle, but it's very possible that it will be the only thing available in the right price range. Once EVs reach a certain % of total sales, GM and Ford's market share will have crumbled and they may not survive the transition if they do not have viable EVs available in volume. I don't know the legal parameters for doing this, but they may be able to spin off a specific truck and SUV line into a smaller, leaner company, but I think it's more likely they spin off their EV business and let the ICE business fold with all the liabilities.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

To anyone who might know:

Why is a multiple-battery EV not a thing? Seems obvious that if range is a problem, you multiply the power sources. I understand they're heavy ... but are they "kinda heavy" or "crazy heavy"? Like 5-10% of an EV's weight vs. 30-50% of an EV's weight?

In any case, this seems like a solvable engineering problem, even if an optimum solution is not in place right now in the EV market.

This is what GM did with the Hummer. The battery is the most expensive part, so doubling it raises the cost considerably. They're also crazy heavy.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
I think you are making up numbers to make it sound much worse than it is in reality.

The F150 lightning is a slow charging vehicle by electric standards, however to go from 20-80% in about an hour based on browsing reddit/lightning forums. A Rivian truck can do 20-80% in 40 minutes.

The last 20% is much slower of course.

These numbers are not great yet, however tech will continue to improve.
Link to video, I literally just saw it yesterday….


And yes, was off a bit. 14 hours to full charge, not 17. Regardless it’s “overnight”. Go to ~8:45 in the video to see timeline with 50 amp plug. Earlier in the video they had the timeline for the standard 120 plug.

That video shows what is is like to charge at a campground, but in your first post you said the below, which is false. Most electric vehicle owners are not charging at a campground, they are charging at fast charging stations which charge much faster than what you are claiming.

On road trips you do not spend 14 hours on each charge.

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
I think you are making up numbers to make it sound much worse than it is in reality.

The F150 lightning is a slow charging vehicle by electric standards, however to go from 20-80% in about an hour based on browsing reddit/lightning forums. A Rivian truck can do 20-80% in 40 minutes.

The last 20% is much slower of course.

These numbers are not great yet, however tech will continue to improve.
Link to video, I literally just saw it yesterday….


And yes, was off a bit. 14 hours to full charge, not 17. Regardless it’s “overnight”. Go to ~8:45 in the video to see timeline with 50 amp plug. Earlier in the video they had the timeline for the standard 120 plug.

That video shows what is is like to charge at a campground, but in your first post you said the below, which is false. Most electric vehicle owners are not charging at a campground, they are charging at fast charging stations which charge much faster than what you are claiming.

On road trips you do not spend 14 hours on each charge.

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

You will only need a full 10-15 hour charge time if your battery is empty. That is not the case for most people. Daily overnight charging is more than enough for most drivers.

ETA - fast charging will need to be available (and is in most areas of the country) for the rest.
 
To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs.

This kind of thing has happened many times in US history, though. I fully assume that the people of 2050-2060 will think very differently from the people of today.
We can only hope...
It's not about changing how consumers think -- if that's your strategy, you're going to fail. EVs will naturally take off on their own once they get to the point that they provide a good value proposition. They already do that for lots of people now. Their uptake is being limited by (a) cost concerns and (b) range/convenience concerns. Those are both solvable problems, just not solvable by this time tomorrow.

Exactly, when the product delivers wanted efficiency at the correct price point for mass delivery then it will sell like any other vehicle. It has to be both or othwise it will still be a niche market. Believe me the auto companies already know this. Problem is they are not making much of anything off EVs right now so it is going to take time.
 
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

It really seems like you are trying to find examples to paint EV's in a bad light. Yes it takes 10-15 hours to charge at home, however that assumes the battery is almost dead. If you plug it in every night your battery is not going to be dead at the end of the day. People do not drive 200 miles every day. The average commute is 41 miles and even if you double that it is easy to charge that every night.
 
The average commute is 41 miles and even if you double that it is easy to charge that every night.

That's both ways, right?

EDIT: Googling [Average commute in miles in the U.S.], the various results on the first page alone gives U.S. "average commutes" (in round-trip miles) of 41, 32, and 25 miles. Not sure what to make of that.
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
I think you are making up numbers to make it sound much worse than it is in reality.

The F150 lightning is a slow charging vehicle by electric standards, however to go from 20-80% in about an hour based on browsing reddit/lightning forums. A Rivian truck can do 20-80% in 40 minutes.

The last 20% is much slower of course.

These numbers are not great yet, however tech will continue to improve.
Link to video, I literally just saw it yesterday….


And yes, was off a bit. 14 hours to full charge, not 17. Regardless it’s “overnight”. Go to ~8:45 in the video to see timeline with 50 amp plug. Earlier in the video they had the timeline for the standard 120 plug.

That video shows what is is like to charge at a campground, but in your first post you said the below, which is false. Most electric vehicle owners are not charging at a campground, they are charging at fast charging stations which charge much faster than what you are claiming.

On road trips you do not spend 14 hours on each charge.

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

You will only need a full 10-15 hour charge time if your battery is empty. That is not the case for most people. Daily overnight charging is more than enough for most drivers.

ETA - fast charging will need to be available (and is in most areas of the country) for the rest.
Yes, agreed. I was looking into this for myself, which is why the campground video came up. I currently have a Chevy Tahoe mainly because I need something to tow my 5k pound camper. So I’ve looked into EVs that can tow - there aren’t many. Range is cut in half, so you’ll need to charge more and more often. If I were to even think about driving my camper across the country with an EV I’ll need a fast charger every 100-150 miles at most. So I’d be driving for 2 hours, and then have to stop and charge for nearly an hour so I can get back on the road. Lines for those chargers will be horrible in those situations.

Now we only take the camper out a few times a year, would like to do it more often as our kid gets older. So for 95% of our regular driving and trips, a Tesla model Y would be just fine. We can even use it for road trips, if we do some planing ahead of time.
 
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

It really seems like you are trying to find examples to paint EV's in a bad light. Yes it takes 10-15 hours to charge at home, however that assumes the battery is almost dead. If you plug it in every night your battery is not going to be dead at the end of the day. People do not drive 200 miles every day. The average commute is 41 miles and even if you double that it is easy to charge that every night.
Oh no, quite the opposite in fact. I’d love to have an EV. My sister just purchased a base model 3, she loves it and I love getting rides in it. One would work for my household as a daily driver just fine. But from my example a post or two ago (towing a camper), we’ll still need a gas vehicle.
 
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

It really seems like you are trying to find examples to paint EV's in a bad light. Yes it takes 10-15 hours to charge at home, however that assumes the battery is almost dead. If you plug it in every night your battery is not going to be dead at the end of the day. People do not drive 200 miles every day. The average commute is 41 miles and even if you double that it is easy to charge that every night.
I think you guys are talking past each other a bit by highlighting different scenarios. One is the daily commute while the other was for longer trips. Daily commutes seems to be ok for the charging aspect of nightly recharges but if you are going on a long trip and need to recharge on the road where the infrastructure isn't really there a camp site might be an alternative even if it's not ideal for the quick charge......but not having the quick charge is a negative.

ETA: Looks like @matttyl beat me to it.
 
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

It really seems like you are trying to find examples to paint EV's in a bad light. Yes it takes 10-15 hours to charge at home, however that assumes the battery is almost dead. If you plug it in every night your battery is not going to be dead at the end of the day. People do not drive 200 miles every day. The average commute is 41 miles and even if you double that it is easy to charge that every night.
Oh no, quite the opposite in fact. I’d love to have an EV. My sister just purchased a base model 3, she loves it and I love getting rides in it. One would work for my household as a daily driver just fine. But from my example a post or two ago (towing a camper), we’ll still need a gas vehicle.

I agree. I drive to El Paso twice a year, Denver 1-2 times a year, and also tow a boat a few times a year in places that do not have fast charging stations. There are definite hurdles that need solved, however I voted 2045 and I think these hurdles will be solved in the next 20 years and possibly faster than that. It depends what these new solid state batteries are capable of.
 
So nearly 28% of poll respondents selected after 2075.

That's pretty shocking to me.

Really, the 2075 response doesn't have anything to do with EV's.

It's about America. Energy efficient just isn't what we do. Especially in the car market. Actually, "vehicle market" because American automakers don't really make cars anymore. Americans don't buy them.

We want trucks, SUV's, and 6000 square foot homes with 3 people living in them.

Just makes it hard imagine an America with everybody driving around in Nissan Leaf's (leaves?).

Although, I could see an America with everybody driving 8000 pound F-150 Lightnings.
Here's the thing... EV vs ICE should be a choice consumers make. Not something mandated (one way or the other). To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs. Unless the cost of one or the other becomes unmanageable, or the US becomes a communist country, I don't see that happening.

Why?

We were not a communist country when we banned leaded gasoline vehicles. We got rid of them because of the harm we knew they were causing.

I live in Houston and I cannot wait for electric vehicles to take over, ~25 years from now when the majority of vehicles are electric and our air quality is much better we will look back in amazement of the crappy air quality we were forced to breath and wonder why people defended burning noxious fuel when a pollution free transportation was available.
I just want LOUD CAR guy to vanish. If EVs are the mechanism that drive LOUD CAR guy out of existence, I'll be the happiest man alive. Can't come soon enough. F those guys.
 
Diminishing marginal returns. It isn't especially surprising that the first doubling of range is pretty straightforward, the next doubling is more difficult, and the next doubling is extremely difficult.
Oh no doubt. But we aren't trying to double at this point right? If we can get the average up to the 300 mile range, I think that is totally fine. The game changer is going to be the fast charging stations all over the place. I think people are overly concerned with having to wait the ~30 minutes to charge their vehicle. I think people will be more than happy to do that on their rare road trip considering their lack of ever having to go fill up or charge anywhere else but their house 99% of the time
 
Yes, and when I serviced drilling rigs in north dakota i drove an easy ~200 miles per day. You are talking about outliers, this thread is ~95%.
Yes you say that and my company ran the same numbers you quoted for our folks, the average commute was under 100 miles for the sales force. Reality is proving to be a different animal. From where we are, Fort Mill, SC to Atlanta, GA, a fairly normal drive for us, takes it from a one day trip to an overnight in a F150. Fort Mill to Raleigh is an overnight now. There are many examples like this that dispel the 40 miles a day stat IMO.
 
Yes, and when I serviced drilling rigs in north dakota i drove an easy ~200 miles per day. You are talking about outliers, this thread is ~95%.
Yes you say that and my company ran the same numbers you quoted for our folks, the average commute was under 100 miles for the sales force. Reality is proving to be a different animal. From where we are, Fort Mill, SC to Atlanta, GA, a fairly normal drive for us, takes it from a one day trip to an overnight in a F150. Fort Mill to Raleigh is an overnight now. There are many examples like this that dispel the 40 miles a day stat IMO.
The F150 can recharge from 15% to 80% in 41 minutes at a fast charger. Why couldn't that 41 minutes be built into the commute and make it a day trip instead of an overnight?
 
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

It really seems like you are trying to find examples to paint EV's in a bad light. Yes it takes 10-15 hours to charge at home, however that assumes the battery is almost dead. If you plug it in every night your battery is not going to be dead at the end of the day. People do not drive 200 miles every day. The average commute is 41 miles and even if you double that it is easy to charge that every night.
Oh no, quite the opposite in fact. I’d love to have an EV. My sister just purchased a base model 3, she loves it and I love getting rides in it. One would work for my household as a daily driver just fine. But from my example a post or two ago (towing a camper), we’ll still need a gas vehicle.

I agree. I drive to El Paso twice a year, Denver 1-2 times a year, and also tow a boat a few times a year in places that do not have fast charging stations. There are definite hurdles that need solved, however I voted 2045 and I think these hurdles will be solved in the next 20 years and possibly faster than that. It depends what these new solid state batteries are capable of.
You have have inadvertently brought up another hurdle. Well, maybe not “hurdle” but at least obstacle. The whole idea of what’s next - why buy now when these new solid state batteries are around the corner? Why jump in then when the latest breakthrough on fast charging won’t be out until the next generation. EVs are still very young, and just looking at what was available 5-10 years ago to now is a huge difference. Not really the same in the ICE world. Sure new ones might have Apple CarPlay or a larger touchscreen, but by and large ICE tech has kinda peaked.
 
Diminishing marginal returns. It isn't especially surprising that the first doubling of range is pretty straightforward, the next doubling is more difficult, and the next doubling is extremely difficult.
Oh no doubt. But we aren't trying to double at this point right? If we can get the average up to the 300 mile range, I think that is totally fine. The game changer is going to be the fast charging stations all over the place. I think people are overly concerned with having to wait the ~30 minutes to charge their vehicle. I think people will be more than happy to do that on their rare road trip considering their lack of ever having to go fill up or charge anywhere else but their house 99% of the time

Our old pal @Smoo bought a Tesla a few years ago (maybe more) and took it on road trip from Victoria, BC down to Death Valley and other points in between. If I recall correctly, his car planned out where to charge in advance and most of the stops had all the American fast food joints that aren't present in BC, which pleased 'ol Smoo greatly. I don't think the charging on a long road trip bothered him in the slightest.
 
Why jump in then when the latest breakthrough on fast charging won’t be out until the next generation. EVs are still very young, and just looking at what was available 5-10 years ago to now is a huge difference
I mean this could be said about everything we buy though? Obviously this is a larger purchase than something menial, but we always make judgment calls on whether the next year's X will be better and worth it to wait. You gotta make the plunge at some point otherwise you are still driving a 1976 Pinto
 
It's one thing to bring EVs to market. It's another thing entirely to shove ICE vehicles out of the market. To get ICEs down to <5% of all sales, you need EVs that can comfortably cover midwestern distances, and that seems to be a long away at this point.

That is at least 30 years away if not more.

Unless the eV is your second vehicle that you take short day to day trips The reliability is just not there right now. I had a demo GM EV for a week in the winter. Range was 325-340 miles. I was traveling to Northern MI distance was 250 miles and was getting really close to dying out around the 225-230 mark. So close that I stopped when I had a chance to recharge. Almost 100 miles less than it should have traveled. Did not want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

I would not buy an EV right now unless it was a hybrid gas fuel backup vehicle.
In 2010, the average miles an EV could travel was 79 miles, with a maximum distance of 94 miles.

Today the average is 217 with a maximum of 520 miles.

Seems preposterous that we have tripled average in just 13 years, yet we think we need another 30 years to be able to get to a comfortable midwestern mileage (whatever exactly that is).
Not sure this is what he means, but I’ll give an example that I saw recently. Ford F150 lightning - at 22% charge. Pulls into a campsite to charge (idea being campsites are already all over, most with electric hookup for rvs/campers - I frequent them myself). Plugs truck (again at 22% charge) into the regular 120 (household) outlet - 5 days till full charge. Can’t get the 30 amp to work properly, but does get the larger 50 amp plug to work. Even with a 50 amp plug charging the truck, was 17 hours till full charge, on a truck that was at a “quarter tank.”

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
I think you are making up numbers to make it sound much worse than it is in reality.

The F150 lightning is a slow charging vehicle by electric standards, however to go from 20-80% in about an hour based on browsing reddit/lightning forums. A Rivian truck can do 20-80% in 40 minutes.

The last 20% is much slower of course.

These numbers are not great yet, however tech will continue to improve.
Link to video, I literally just saw it yesterday….


And yes, was off a bit. 14 hours to full charge, not 17. Regardless it’s “overnight”. Go to ~8:45 in the video to see timeline with 50 amp plug. Earlier in the video they had the timeline for the standard 120 plug.

That video shows what is is like to charge at a campground, but in your first post you said the below, which is false. Most electric vehicle owners are not charging at a campground, they are charging at fast charging stations which charge much faster than what you are claiming.

On road trips you do not spend 14 hours on each charge.

Midwesterners aren’t going to drive a truck for 3 hours and then have to wait 17 hours for it to charge back up to full so they can continue on their trip. It’s not just the range, it’s the time required to replenish that range. Having larger batteries with longer range will only add to that problem.
Oh, I get that. This was just an example that I came across, as I go to campsites myself and I’m looking at how easily my family could use an EV. Campgrounds are all over so it makes sense. A 50 amp plug puts out some serious juice - my 24 foot travel trailer only uses a 30 amp. So that’s a serious plug they are using, and it still takes a very long time to fill it back up. That was my point, the video was just an example.

And just having larger batteries doesn’t solve this, it makes it worse (time needed to fully recharge standard range f150 at Dc fast charger is 36 minutes, but 44 for extended range model). And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.

You will only need a full 10-15 hour charge time if your battery is empty. That is not the case for most people. Daily overnight charging is more than enough for most drivers.

ETA - fast charging will need to be available (and is in most areas of the country) for the rest.
Yep. This 95% number is what is the hang up. Kind of an arbitrary number to pick. That’s tough and is harder to imagine with how ”easy” ICE are.

However, even with just today‘s limited charging options an EV with a range of 200 miles is going to cover the vast majority of people’s daily driving very easily. Most people wouldn’t think anything of it once they switched.
 
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So nearly 28% of poll respondents selected after 2075.

That's pretty shocking to me.

Really, the 2075 response doesn't have anything to do with EV's.

It's about America. Energy efficient just isn't what we do. Especially in the car market. Actually, "vehicle market" because American automakers don't really make cars anymore. Americans don't buy them.

We want trucks, SUV's, and 6000 square foot homes with 3 people living in them.

Just makes it hard imagine an America with everybody driving around in Nissan Leaf's (leaves?).

Although, I could see an America with everybody driving 8000 pound F-150 Lightnings.
Here's the thing... EV vs ICE should be a choice consumers make. Not something mandated (one way or the other). To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs. Unless the cost of one or the other becomes unmanageable, or the US becomes a communist country, I don't see that happening.

Why?

We were not a communist country when we banned leaded gasoline vehicles. We got rid of them because of the harm we knew they were causing.

I live in Houston and I cannot wait for electric vehicles to take over, ~25 years from now when the majority of vehicles are electric and our air quality is much better we will look back in amazement of the crappy air quality we were forced to breath and wonder why people defended burning noxious fuel when a pollution free transportation was available.
I just want LOUD CAR guy to vanish. If EVs are the mechanism that drive LOUD CAR guy out of existence, I'll be the happiest man alive. Can't come soon enough. F those guys.

This reminds me of that movie with Vince Vaughan and Kevin James where the pitched adding muscle car engine revving sounds to electric vehicles. You may not be out of the woods.
 
And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.
Of the 3+ trillion miles Americans drive each year just under 2 trillion of those miles are 50 mile drives or less. Of the remaining trillion or so, 90% is less than 500 miles. (Wish this was more granular.) So when we actually achieve 250 miles of ranges seems to cover most driving needs. And 500 miles would cover all but single digit exceptions. (I hate mixing sources, so hopefully I did not pull apples and oranges with the numbers.)

Now I get that individuals give a disproportionate amount of weight to the exceptions so a 3% need (made up number) might tip the scales for a while due to human nature, but I think once economies of scale kick in and EV vehicle pricing starts to come into line with ICE the savings elsewhere starts to pay the cost for the exceptional needs.

Now I get that markets depend on a change in perspective for this work. But factually, an overwhelmingly number of Americans take very few trips that would not be satisfied with what is rolling out now. And give it a decade to double that range, and the need for more range is under the 5% threshold. That includes mid-westerners, rural Americans, etc. Sure perspective might take a bit longer to catchup, H.L. Mecken's attributed quote aside, I think when the products catch up Americans will figure it out pretty quickly. And the 95% is new sales, not what is on the road so we don't need 95% of Americans, just 95% of the subset buying new.
 
So nearly 28% of poll respondents selected after 2075.

That's pretty shocking to me.

Really, the 2075 response doesn't have anything to do with EV's.

It's about America. Energy efficient just isn't what we do. Especially in the car market. Actually, "vehicle market" because American automakers don't really make cars anymore. Americans don't buy them.

We want trucks, SUV's, and 6000 square foot homes with 3 people living in them.

Just makes it hard imagine an America with everybody driving around in Nissan Leaf's (leaves?).

Although, I could see an America with everybody driving 8000 pound F-150 Lightnings.
Here's the thing... EV vs ICE should be a choice consumers make. Not something mandated (one way or the other). To get to 95%, it would have to mean that practically EVERYONE wants only EVs. Unless the cost of one or the other becomes unmanageable, or the US becomes a communist country, I don't see that happening.

Why?

We were not a communist country when we banned leaded gasoline vehicles. We got rid of them because of the harm we knew they were causing.

I live in Houston and I cannot wait for electric vehicles to take over, ~25 years from now when the majority of vehicles are electric and our air quality is much better we will look back in amazement of the crappy air quality we were forced to breath and wonder why people defended burning noxious fuel when a pollution free transportation was available.
I just want LOUD CAR guy to vanish. If EVs are the mechanism that drive LOUD CAR guy out of existence, I'll be the happiest man alive. Can't come soon enough. F those guys.

This reminds me of that movie with Vince Vaughan and Kevin James where the pitched adding muscle car engine revving sounds to electric vehicles. You may not be out of the woods.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
 
The F150 can recharge from 15% to 80% in 41 minutes at a fast charger. Why couldn't that 41 minutes be built into the commute and make it a day trip instead of an overnight?
The myth of fast chargers dotting the landscape, more plentiful than gas stations. This is where I live, the spot they mention as a "popular charging station" is an obscure factory in the middle of nothing that I'd guess 80% of the population doesn't know exist. And they aren't public.
 
The F150 can recharge from 15% to 80% in 41 minutes at a fast charger. Why couldn't that 41 minutes be built into the commute and make it a day trip instead of an overnight?
The myth of fast chargers dotting the landscape, more plentiful than gas stations. This is where I live, the spot they mention as a "popular charging station" is an obscure factory in the middle of nothing that I'd guess 80% of the population doesn't know exist. And they aren't public.
I didn't say they were dotting the landscape. But if you are driving to Atlanta or Raleigh I guarantee you could find one somewhere in or around those cities
 
Why jump in then when the latest breakthrough on fast charging won’t be out until the next generation. EVs are still very young, and just looking at what was available 5-10 years ago to now is a huge difference
I mean this could be said about everything we buy though? Obviously this is a larger purchase than something menial, but we always make judgment calls on whether the next year's X will be better and worth it to wait. You gotta make the plunge at some point otherwise you are still driving a 1976 Pinto
1977 Ford Pinto gas mileage - 26 mpg average. My 2012 4 cylinder rav4 - I average 24 mpg. Like I said, they've kinda done what they can with an ICE powered car. There isn’t some technological breakthrough right around the corner. This also isn’t quite like a $500 cell phone, it’s a $40+k automobile.

As I said, I’d love to own one and it would be fine for much of my driving requirements, but not all. And that may be the case for a whole lot of people. To the point where a family may need one of each, as mine likely will.
 
And no, “most people” won’t be using fast charging stations, they will be charging at home (it’s really the only was an EV makes economic sense for most). Even with a home level 2 charger (NEMA 14-50 240 volt - like a dryer plug) recharge times are between 10-15 hours. Again, overnight. That’s another hurdle the EV will need to solve.
Of the 3+ trillion miles Americans drive each year just under 2 trillion of those miles are 50 mile drives or less. Of the remaining trillion or so, 90% is less than 500 miles. (Wish this was more granular.) So when we actually achieve 250 miles of ranges seems to cover most driving needs. And 500 miles would cover all but single digit exceptions. (I hate mixing sources, so hopefully I did not pull apples and oranges with the numbers.)

Now I get that individuals give a disproportionate amount of weight to the exceptions so a 3% need (made up number) might tip the scales for a while due to human nature, but I think once economies of scale kick in and EV vehicle pricing starts to come into line with ICE the savings elsewhere starts to pay the cost for the exceptional needs.

Now I get that markets depend on a change in perspective for this work. But factually, an overwhelmingly number of Americans take very few trips that would not be satisfied with what is rolling out now. And give it a decade to double that range, and the need for more range is under the 5% threshold. That includes mid-westerners, rural Americans, etc. Sure perspective might take a bit longer to catchup, H.L. Mecken's attributed quote aside, I think when the products catch up Americans will figure it out pretty quickly. And the 95% is new sales, not what is on the road so we don't need 95% of Americans, just 95% of the subset buying new.
Thanks for this, I fully agree with what you’re saying, but it’s also kinda making my point.

As I mentioned above I have a Chevy Tahoe as one of my family’s 2 vehicles because we have a travel trailer (camper) that we take out a few times a year for family trips. I choose that car not for the 95% of driving I do within 30 miles of my house, but for the 5% of the time I’m towing.

We do this kinda thing for more than just cars, too. I’ve never lost power at my house for more than a few hours in the nearly 10 years I’ve been there - still have a gas powered generator. We’ve never had an issue with our neighborhood’s shared well water - still have a few gallons of bottled drinking water in garage in case. We have a guest bedroom in our house that gets used once a year. A car is something most people don’t have a backup of - so they one they have needs to do everything they need it to, not 90-95% of it.
 

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