When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US? (1 Viewer)

[MTskibum]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

Buying a used gas car in the 3-5k range will put you in a car that is also near the end of its life, and yes I do know about the mechanic special toyota camry's that have 200k miles with body damage that can be found for 2k that someone with skill can get another 100k miles out of. Before someone here tries to prove my point wrong with an outlier.

 

[Jobber]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

We are talking well into the future here in all these scenarios. We will have better diagnostics and we will have a better sense of how much life is left in these batteries. What we will likely experience with older, used EVs is a decrease in maximum distance. So for the discounted price you will get 60% of what the max range used to be or something like that. Nobody should be buying a car for 3K that needs 10K in repairs

Just because Tesla or Ford lists a complete pack at $xx,xxx doesn't mean someone will ever actually buy it. "End of Battery Life" is a very misleading term.

Precisely. How often do you hear about someone with a 20 year beater go out and buy a $10k crate engine from Ford? Never, outside of some collector.

 

[MTskibum]

Is this a true statement for all of us-

If Joe had asked about 95% of new sales in Europe, then the data would be earlier? Same as if the question was global sales?

While I think that manufacturers will certainly cater to the American market with larger vehicles, I'm not so sure that they will have much incentive to run a parallel fueling choices once electric dominates globally absent a hefty premium. In other words when that $15K premium for electric is now baked into every car and instead there is a 15K premium for keeping the ICE lines running. And other than for niche usages like pulling a boat, or pulling a camper who is paying this premium? And at what point does it no longer make sense to run a low margin gas station? I think the change is going to be so much quicker than we can imagine, based mostly on market forces. I mean the "Go Green" movements around the world might have regulatory or offered incentives to kick started the process, but it will be market dynamics that culturally change the perception as to which form of vehicle offers the best solution for most people. It is hard to see that today with most of EV offerings just "coming soon" pictures on web sites, but assuming they do arrive and relatively quicky work out the V1.0 kinks everything is about to change. And the ball might be rolling slow at first, but that doesn't seem likely to last. Too many forces at work. Too many dollars to mint. 1935, 12 years might be a bit too soon. But 1945 seems way too late.

Did you know that, right now, you can get vehicles that run on natural gas? And there is a network of CNG fueling stations in the U.S.:

NGV Station Map – The Transport Project

ngvamerica.org

Yeah, not nearly as many as gasoline but there are probably a lot less CNG vehicles in use than there are EV's. And, even if they stopped selling gasoline vehicles tomorrow there would be a hell of a lot of them still in existence for a long time. Gasoline fueling stations aren't going away anytime soon.

My grandpa was a natural gas guy and his company vehicles in the 70's/80's were all natural gas. The problem is the fuel density is not that great and fueling stations are limited.

 

[Hov34]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

 

[matttyl]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

Dude, I literally just said that ICE cars will still be available for the rest of our lifetimes. Nothing will change in regards to that market for a long time.

 

[the moops]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

If you can't see the changes already happening then there is no convincing you otherwise

 

[John123]

Is this a true statement for all of us-

If Joe had asked about 95% of new sales in Europe, then the data would be earlier? Same as if the question was global sales?

While I think that manufacturers will certainly cater to the American market with larger vehicles, I'm not so sure that they will have much incentive to run a parallel fueling choices once electric dominates globally absent a hefty premium. In other words when that $15K premium for electric is now baked into every car and instead there is a 15K premium for keeping the ICE lines running. And other than for niche usages like pulling a boat, or pulling a camper who is paying this premium? And at what point does it no longer make sense to run a low margin gas station? I think the change is going to be so much quicker than we can imagine, based mostly on market forces. I mean the "Go Green" movements around the world might have regulatory or offered incentives to kick started the process, but it will be market dynamics that culturally change the perception as to which form of vehicle offers the best solution for most people. It is hard to see that today with most of EV offerings just "coming soon" pictures on web sites, but assuming they do arrive and relatively quicky work out the V1.0 kinks everything is about to change. And the ball might be rolling slow at first, but that doesn't seem likely to last. Too many forces at work. Too many dollars to mint. 1935, 12 years might be a bit too soon. But 1945 seems way too late.

Did you know that, right now, you can get vehicles that run on natural gas? And there is a network of CNG fueling stations in the U.S.:

NGV Station Map – The Transport Project

ngvamerica.org

Yeah, not nearly as many as gasoline but there are probably a lot less CNG vehicles in use than there are EV's. And, even if they stopped selling gasoline vehicles tomorrow there would be a hell of a lot of them still in existence for a long time. Gasoline fueling stations aren't going away anytime soon.

My grandpa was a natural gas guy and his company vehicles in the 70's/80's were all natural gas. The problem is the fuel density is not that great and fueling stations are limited.

The number of fueling stations is likely in proportion to the number of vehicles. So, if CNG was more popular there would be more fueling stations. But in dense areas like Los Angeles there is no shortage of fueling stations. I had someone who worked for me who had a CNG truck that she loved. She had no issues fueling it. Yes, the range is more limited but you can still fill the vehicle up quickly like a gas vehicle. In any case, I was simply pointing to CNG as a model for what fueling a gasoline vehicle will likely be like if/when EV's become the dominant vehicle on the road.

 

[Hov34]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

If you can't see the changes already happening then there is no convincing you otherwise

Nope, your persistence has convinced me. Great job.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Is this a true statement for all of us-

If Joe had asked about 95% of new sales in Europe, then the data would be earlier? Same as if the question was global sales?

While I think that manufacturers will certainly cater to the American market with larger vehicles, I'm not so sure that they will have much incentive to run a parallel fueling choices once electric dominates globally absent a hefty premium. In other words when that $15K premium for electric is now baked into every car and instead there is a 15K premium for keeping the ICE lines running. And other than for niche usages like pulling a boat, or pulling a camper who is paying this premium? And at what point does it no longer make sense to run a low margin gas station? I think the change is going to be so much quicker than we can imagine, based mostly on market forces. I mean the "Go Green" movements around the world might have regulatory or offered incentives to kick started the process, but it will be market dynamics that culturally change the perception as to which form of vehicle offers the best solution for most people. It is hard to see that today with most of EV offerings just "coming soon" pictures on web sites, but assuming they do arrive and relatively quicky work out the V1.0 kinks everything is about to change. And the ball might be rolling slow at first, but that doesn't seem likely to last. Too many forces at work. Too many dollars to mint. 1935, 12 years might be a bit too soon. But 1945 seems way too late.

Did you know that, right now, you can get vehicles that run on natural gas? And there is a network of CNG fueling stations in the U.S.:

NGV Station Map – The Transport Project

ngvamerica.org

Yeah, not nearly as many as gasoline but there are probably a lot less CNG vehicles in use than there are EV's. And, even if they stopped selling gasoline vehicles tomorrow there would be a hell of a lot of them still in existence for a long time. Gasoline fueling stations aren't going away anytime soon.

Yes! I know of this alternative,

I don't think that gas stations will all close the same day or that it will be hard to find one in most places. I just think there won't be many corners with a gas station on all four corners any longer. And when that starts to happen those slim margins from such a competitive environment will get a bit larger. With less competition gas will be a bit higher driving the market a bit more to EVs. Which creates a feedback loop which drives more out of business sooner and prices even higher. Rinse and repeat.

And this won't just be slowly dropping production incrementally to adjust to falling demand, but instead there will have a bunch of cliffs when such and such company closes this refinery, so and so car company shut down this engine foundry, etc., etc.

While from introduction to mass penetration change might take quite a while, I cannot think of any disruptive change such as this that didn't have a more or less overnight moment. The only way this time seems different to me is if something else pushes current EV technology to the side and takes its place as the future. Either way ICE gets pushed out sooner, rather than later. 95% might be an unrealistic threshold, but conceptually is 90% or 85% really that different?

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

The number of fueling stations is likely in proportion to the number of vehicles.

Only if usage doesn't change. If the number of ICE vehicles stay relatively constant but are driven for fewer miles, then we get into that feedback loop.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

it would be nice to see a Tesla owner’s profile. My cousin owns one, also has a Toyota SUV. He is also en eye doctor.

Office of three dudes; two of them are Tesla owners. Both are portfolio managers. Neither one will ever buy another ICE for themselves. They LOVE their Teslas but my boss has had his for 7 years now and is going to buy the Mercedes EV next. Not a knock on Tesla, but he's 70 and, well, he CAN and this is his ultimate dream car. Other guy is 45, has had his for less than a year and is adamant he won't ever drive anything other than an EV personally, though he maintains that for longer road trips, he'll drive the family big rig (it's a Tahoe or some such monster gas guzzling SUV).

I was going to drive my ICE car until the wheels fell off. The guy who T-boned me had other ideas. I could never envision spending what to me was a ridiculous sum of money on a depreciating asset. When I bought mine, I was driving 70+ miles per day and sitting in traffic anywhere from 45-75 minutes each way, depending on day and time of year. I wanted to move closer to work to reduce commute times, which would have come at a steep cost. Since I now HAD to replace my car, I also wanted a car I didn't hate driving.

I looked at used cars varying on the price range from Accord to S5. I briefly considered a Model 3, which was brand new at the time. I didn't love them, but I'd done all the math. I knew the cost difference between it and my most reasonable option (iirc, about 8-10k after gas, which was much cheaper then). Then I stumbled across the fact that Tesla was selling used Model S lease returns (not ideal) direct. It wasn't that much different from a new 3, and I vastly preferred the S. It also got me access to the HOV lane and free supercharging for life. That's about 30 minutes of drive time per day. And my time is worth something, dammit.

I'm not an EV fan boy, an environmental nut, a Musk honk, a hedge fund manager, or an oil hater. I just wanted to spend more time with my daughter and enjoy my commute to work a little more. Somebody, I think it was @Worm, said, "If you aren't seriously considering buying it, don't drive it." At the end of the day, worm was right. They're freakin' fun to drive. And I was sold. @Ron Swanson . And it's my favorite of all the cars I've ever owned.

My wife owns an ICE SUV. She loves it. She can keep loving it until the day she dies. I couldn't care less. But I doubt my primary vehicle will ever be an ICE car again. Which shouldn't be confused with "I'll only own a Tesla". Hopefully they keep improving them at the rate of competition. I'm skeptical. And they need to do so. Don't confuse "it's my favorite car I've ever owned" for "it's a perfect car." It most certainly is not. Right now their infrastructure advantage makes them tough to overcome in the EV space, though I'd be shocked if 80+% of EV owners don't do 80+% of their charging at home. That includes me. So how big a deal is that, really? It's not until it is.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

To anyone ever buying an EV, consider range above almost everything else. You WILL have range envy. You WILL go, "Hmmm... should I have spent an extra $5k to get an extra 40 miles of range?". Probably. Yes.

Aside: During May or June 2020, I think it was, I was unemployed and getting really tired of being in my house and neither going anywhere nor doing anything. I needed out. I needed to do something.

And I wanted a sandwich.

I drove about 520 miles round-trip to buy a sandwich and a case of wine. I wouldn't have done that if I owned an ICE car. 'Cause all the trip really cost me was my time, which I was already wasting.

Anyway, despite my post above, range limitations only mean so much. You can manage in an EV, even if it isn't the ideal car for all situations. I'm very much a destination over journey person. There are trips I wouldn't take my EV on for that reason. Yet. And that's OK.

Incidentally, that trip turned into 5 cases of wine as I told a few friends what I was doing. But I couldn't buy either nearby. And both wine and sandwich were more an excuse than a purpose, even if I'd deny to my wife I ever said that. I drove 260 miles for a sandwich. 'Cause it's a good sandwich.

 

[the moops]

@Bob Sacamano you gotta tell us more about this sandwich

 

[massraider]

@Bob Sacamano you gotta tell us more about this sandwich

And which remote Alaskan weather station he was living at

 

[the moops]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

If you can't see the changes already happening then there is no convincing you otherwise

Nope, your persistence has convinced me. Great job.

In 10 years time what is your guess as to what percent of people are driving EVs?

 

[Keerock]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

If you can't see the changes already happening then there is no convincing you otherwise

Nope, your persistence has convinced me. Great job.

In 10 years time what is your guess as to what percent of people are driving EVs?

With government mandates or not? If people are forced to, the number will obviously be much higher.

 

[Jobber]

The number of fueling stations is likely in proportion to the number of vehicles.

Only if usage doesn't change. If the number of ICE vehicles stay relatively constant but are driven for fewer miles, then we get into that feedback loop.

A multi-car household who replaces a ICE with a single EV not only replaces all of the miles previously driven in an ICE, but many of the miles of the remaining ICE vehicles in the family. An example is all of the errands (kids practice, Costco runs, etc) always favor the EV due to fuel cost being much lower.

I would hazard a guess that in a multi car household, an EV doesn’t replace one ICE, but somewhere around 1.5 when considering gasoline consumption.

 

[General Malaise]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

it would be nice to see a Tesla owner’s profile. My cousin owns one, also has a Toyota SUV. He is also en eye doctor.

Office of three dudes; two of them are Tesla owners. Both are portfolio managers. Neither one will ever buy another ICE for themselves. They LOVE their Teslas but my boss has had his for 7 years now and is going to buy the Mercedes EV next. Not a knock on Tesla, but he's 70 and, well, he CAN and this is his ultimate dream car. Other guy is 45, has had his for less than a year and is adamant he won't ever drive anything other than an EV personally, though he maintains that for longer road trips, he'll drive the family big rig (it's a Tahoe or some such monster gas guzzling SUV).

I was going to drive my ICE car until the wheels fell off. The guy who T-boned me had other ideas. I could never envision spending what to me was a ridiculous sum of money on a depreciating asset. When I bought mine, I was driving 70+ miles per day and sitting in traffic anywhere from 45-75 minutes each way, depending on day and time of year. I wanted to move closer to work to reduce commute times, which would have come at a steep cost. Since I now HAD to replace my car, I also wanted a car I didn't hate driving.

I looked at used cars varying on the price range from Accord to S5. I briefly considered a Model 3, which was brand new at the time. I didn't love them, but I'd done all the math. I knew the cost difference between it and my most reasonable option (iirc, about 8-10k after gas, which was much cheaper then). Then I stumbled across the fact that Tesla was selling used Model S lease returns (not ideal) direct. It wasn't that much different from a new 3, and I vastly preferred the S. It also got me access to the HOV lane and free supercharging for life. That's about 30 minutes of drive time per day. And my time is worth something, dammit.

I'm not an EV fan boy, an environmental nut, a Musk honk, a hedge fund manager, or an oil hater. I just wanted to spend more time with my daughter and enjoy my commute to work a little more. Somebody, I think it was @Worm, said, "If you aren't seriously considering buying it, don't drive it." At the end of the day, worm was right. They're freakin' fun to drive. And I was sold. @Ron Swanson . And it's my favorite of all the cars I've ever owned.

My wife owns an ICE SUV. She loves it. She can keep loving it until the day she dies. I couldn't care less. But I doubt my primary vehicle will ever be an ICE car again. Which shouldn't be confused with "I'll only own a Tesla". Hopefully they keep improving them at the rate of competition. I'm skeptical. And they need to do so. Don't confuse "it's my favorite car I've ever owned" for "it's a perfect car." It most certainly is not. Right now their infrastructure advantage makes them tough to overcome in the EV space, though I'd be shocked if 80+% of EV owners don't do 80+% of their charging at home. That includes me. So how big a deal is that, really? It's not until it is.

I mean, the first time my boss let me drive his Tesla when he first got it he told me to find a red light without too much traffic around and when it turns green, punch it. It's the first time in my life I had something akin to 'roller coaster' tummy in a car. It blew my mind how fast I got to 55 (speed limit was 45 and the police around here aren't too busy with antifa-meth-homeless-portland-man to write speeding tickets) and then when I took my foot off the accelerator, I wasn't expecting the immediate slowdown (felt like a parachute was suddenly engaged). Plus all the nice bells and whistles, the Tesla really is fun. There's room for improvement but they're fun as f.

 

[General Malaise]

@Bob Sacamano you gotta tell us more about this sandwich

"sandwich" is a euphemism, silly....like: "Hey, Sam, how was your weekend?" "Great, Larry, I did a bunch of yardwork, watched the kids' little league game, took my wife out for a nice dinner then we came home and made some really great sandwiches, if you know what I mean!".

He didn't actually drive 520 miles to eat an actual sandwich. Not our Bob.

 

[Terminalxylem]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

We are talking well into the future here in all these scenarios. We will have better diagnostics and we will have a better sense of how much life is left in these batteries. What we will likely experience with older, used EVs is a decrease in maximum distance. So for the discounted price you will get 60% of what the max range used to be or something like that. Nobody should be buying a car for 3K that needs 10K in repairs

Understood, but given range anxiety is already a problem with EV adoption, that’s just one more hurdle to overcome.

FTR, I think range concerns are way overblown already, but that doesn’t stop them from influencing people’s decisions to buy EV.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

I agree, though some people are painting scenarios where gas becomes scarce, or prohibitively expensive.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

https://www.tkbbakery.com/uploads/b/f1a64170-1254-11eb-b5bb-03b08c896b44/12135060-deb3-11eb-8625-fd218cc259e7.pdf

 

[Keerock]

https://www.tkbbakery.com/uploads/b/f1a64170-1254-11eb-b5bb-03b08c896b44/12135060-deb3-11eb-8625-fd218cc259e7.pdf

Sexy Italian, no doubt...

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Melina's Hotness - Hold the lettuce, of course

But their online picture of it looks awful and does it no justice. So you get the menu version.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

https://www.tkbbakery.com/uploads/b/f1a64170-1254-11eb-b5bb-03b08c896b44/12135060-deb3-11eb-8625-fd218cc259e7.pdf

Sexy Italian, no doubt...

Very nice of you to say, but I don't think we've ever met IRL.

 

[matttyl]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

I agree, though some people are painting scenarios where gas becomes scarce, or prohibitively expensive.

It was prohibitively expensive last year when it hit $5/gal here where I am, which meant like $7/gal in some place here in US. “Prohibitively expensive” is all relative. In my former car, a mini Cooper, I got 40 mpg and high gas prices wouldn’t bother me much. My current vehicle is a Tahoe, at 16 mpg - it’s already prohibitively expensive to drive.

 

[massraider]

FTR, I think range concerns are way overblown already,

Had no idea there were so many Clark Grizwolds in the US.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

Nobody's gonna drive this lousy freeway when they can take the Red Car for a nickel​

 

[the moops]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

We are talking well into the future here in all these scenarios. We will have better diagnostics and we will have a better sense of how much life is left in these batteries. What we will likely experience with older, used EVs is a decrease in maximum distance. So for the discounted price you will get 60% of what the max range used to be or something like that. Nobody should be buying a car for 3K that needs 10K in repairs

Understood, but given range anxiety is already a problem with EV adoption, that’s just one more hurdle to overcome.

FTR, I think range concerns are way overblown already, but that doesn’t stop them from influencing people’s decisions to buy EV.

No doubt. I have only had an EV for like 3 weeks and everytime it goes below 100 miles i get nervous

 

[belljr]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

We are talking well into the future here in all these scenarios. We will have better diagnostics and we will have a better sense of how much life is left in these batteries. What we will likely experience with older, used EVs is a decrease in maximum distance. So for the discounted price you will get 60% of what the max range used to be or something like that. Nobody should be buying a car for 3K that needs 10K in repairs

Understood, but given range anxiety is already a problem with EV adoption, that’s just one more hurdle to overcome.

FTR, I think range concerns are way overblown already, but that doesn’t stop them from influencing people’s decisions to buy EV.

I don't. I drive between 100-150 miles a day. I can easily see scenarios where I start falling behind on a Bolt with a 259 range for example. Plus the cost to install a level 2 charge to ensure I get enough charge but I have no room in my current electrical so not sure if I can install a stand alone. Idk the cost of that 3k?

 

[the moops]

don't. I drive between 100-150 miles a day. I can easily see scenarios where I start falling behind on a Bolt with a 259 range for example. Plus the cost to install a level 2 charge to ensure I get enough charge but I have no room in my current electrical so not sure if I can install a stand alone. Idk the cost of that 3k?

Chevy fronts the cost of a level 2 charger when you buy new

 

[Dragons]

I don't. I drive between 100-150 miles a day. I can easily see scenarios where I start falling behind on a Bolt with a 259 range for example. Plus the cost to install a level 2 charge to ensure I get enough charge but I have no room in my current electrical so not sure if I can install a stand alone. Idk the cost of that 3k?

Not sure what you mean by stand alone, but if your electrical panel is full, you would need to upgrade something. Hard to say what it would cost, but I just want to point out that it's a one time cost and there are often incentives to help reduce the out of pocket.

 

[Dragons]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

This was my assumption. That you EV cultists are wanting everyone to have an EV for their vehicles. It is just not going to happen in our lifetimes. The up front cost, the cost of a replacement battery for a used EV (way more than the cost to get an ice beater functional). Plus, we haven't even discussed where the poor are going to charge their EV overnight? Where? In their 4 car garage???

If you can't see the changes already happening then there is no convincing you otherwise

Nope, your persistence has convinced me. Great job.

In 10 years time what is your guess as to what percent of people are driving EVs?

With government mandates or not? If people are forced to, the number will obviously be much higher.

I suppose the answer to this question is what you think will happen. For me, I'm not advocating for government mandates and I don't believe government mandates are needed for the transition to happen faster than most think.

 

[General Malaise]

Melina's Hotness - Hold the lettuce, of course

But their online picture of it looks awful and does it no justice. So you get the menu version.

Man drives 520 miles to insult sandwich artist by ordering his perfect sandwich without its star ingredient.....weird.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I would drive 520 miles to order the lettuce on the side and throw it on the floor like pennies from the hands of a malcontent albino leaving a Best Buy.

 

[Ron Swanson]

I mean, the first time my boss let me drive his Tesla when he first got it he told me to find a red light without too much traffic around and when it turns green, punch it. It's the first time in my life I had something akin to 'roller coaster' tummy in a car. It blew my mind how fast I got to 55 (speed limit was 45 and the police around here aren't too busy with antifa-meth-homeless-portland-man to write speeding tickets) and then when I took my foot off the accelerator, I wasn't expecting the immediate slowdown (felt like a parachute was suddenly engaged). Plus all the nice bells and whistles, the Tesla really is fun. There's room for improvement but they're fun as f.

And there is no engine noise to attract police attention.

 

[John123]

I mean, the first time my boss let me drive his Tesla when he first got it he told me to find a red light without too much traffic around and when it turns green, punch it. It's the first time in my life I had something akin to 'roller coaster' tummy in a car. It blew my mind how fast I got to 55 (speed limit was 45 and the police around here aren't too busy with antifa-meth-homeless-portland-man to write speeding tickets) and then when I took my foot off the accelerator, I wasn't expecting the immediate slowdown (felt like a parachute was suddenly engaged). Plus all the nice bells and whistles, the Tesla really is fun. There's room for improvement but they're fun as f.

And there is no engine noise to attract police attention.

You guys act as if engine noise is a bad thing. It's one of my favorite things about my two "toy" cars.

 

[Jobber]

I mean, the first time my boss let me drive his Tesla when he first got it he told me to find a red light without too much traffic around and when it turns green, punch it. It's the first time in my life I had something akin to 'roller coaster' tummy in a car. It blew my mind how fast I got to 55 (speed limit was 45 and the police around here aren't too busy with antifa-meth-homeless-portland-man to write speeding tickets) and then when I took my foot off the accelerator, I wasn't expecting the immediate slowdown (felt like a parachute was suddenly engaged). Plus all the nice bells and whistles, the Tesla really is fun. There's room for improvement but they're fun as f.

And there is no engine noise to attract police attention.

You guys act as if engine noise is a bad thing. It's one of my favorite things about my two "toy" cars.

On fun cars. Not so much on my ratty old Ford Focus.

 

[The General]

LINK

Seems to be going well in Norway.

“80 percent of Norway's new car sales were electric, and it plans to phase out gas-powered cars entirely in 2025. So far, Norway's experience suggests that electric vehicles bring benefits without the dire consequences predicted by some critics, the Times reports.

Oslo's air is noticeably cleaner — and much quieter — and its greenhouse gas emissions have dropped 30 percent since 2009 with no big uptick in unemployment at gas stations or auto mechanics, or significant strain on the electrical grid.”

 

[General Malaise]

I mean, the first time my boss let me drive his Tesla when he first got it he told me to find a red light without too much traffic around and when it turns green, punch it. It's the first time in my life I had something akin to 'roller coaster' tummy in a car. It blew my mind how fast I got to 55 (speed limit was 45 and the police around here aren't too busy with antifa-meth-homeless-portland-man to write speeding tickets) and then when I took my foot off the accelerator, I wasn't expecting the immediate slowdown (felt like a parachute was suddenly engaged). Plus all the nice bells and whistles, the Tesla really is fun. There's room for improvement but they're fun as f.

And there is no engine noise to attract police attention.

You guys act as if engine noise is a bad thing. It's one of my favorite things about my two "toy" cars.

A good old-fashioned purrrrr when you gun it is fine. Replacing a muffler so your little car sounds like a male lion on the Serangeti is a bit much.

 

[belljr]

LINK

Seems to be going well in Norway.

“80 percent of Norway's new car sales were electric, and it plans to phase out gas-powered cars entirely in 2025. So far, Norway's experience suggests that electric vehicles bring benefits without the dire consequences predicted by some critics, the Times reports.

Oslo's air is noticeably cleaner — and much quieter — and its greenhouse gas emissions have dropped 30 percent since 2009 with no big uptick in unemployment at gas stations or auto mechanics, or significant strain on the electrical grid.”

if there are no gas cars how will there not be unemployment at gas stations? Mechanics I get......

 

[General Malaise]

Cobalt metal prices have reached 52 week lows. That's the metal needed for storing the electric charge in the battery pack. If the US were serious about stockpiling this metal for strategic reasons, now would be the time. Guessing worries over future supply are overblown.

 

[The General]

LINK

Seems to be going well in Norway.

“80 percent of Norway's new car sales were electric, and it plans to phase out gas-powered cars entirely in 2025. So far, Norway's experience suggests that electric vehicles bring benefits without the dire consequences predicted by some critics, the Times reports.

Oslo's air is noticeably cleaner — and much quieter — and its greenhouse gas emissions have dropped 30 percent since 2009 with no big uptick in unemployment at gas stations or auto mechanics, or significant strain on the electrical grid.”

if there are no gas cars how will there not be unemployment at gas stations? Mechanics I get......

Kind of thought it would be the opposite…way less stuff to fix and replace on EV’s.

But the article mentions a gas station had added chargers I’m guessing that’s a normal thing. You sit there for longer, go get some stuff from the gas station, cup of coffee etc.

 

[The General]

Cobalt metal prices have reached 52 week lows. That's the metal needed for storing the electric charge in the battery pack. If the US were serious about stockpiling this metal for strategic reasons, now would be the time. Guessing worries over future supply are overblown.

Hopefully car companies and people in this industry are pushing for this or stressing it’s importance to whoever does this type of thing.

 

[General Malaise]

Cobalt metal prices have reached 52 week lows. That's the metal needed for storing the electric charge in the battery pack. If the US were serious about stockpiling this metal for strategic reasons, now would be the time. Guessing worries over future supply are overblown.

Hopefully car companies and people in this industry are pushing for this or stressing it’s importance to whoever does this type of thing.

The US Gov has stockpiles of all sorts of critical resources and has for decades. Things like vaccines, oil, etc. It would be prudent to add cobalt to that list since we don't produce much domestically. Interestingly the blurb below on helium was our firm's entry point as investors in this gas.

The United States also maintains a few lesser-known stockpiles. The Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve is a stockpile of one million barrels of diesel fuel kept in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Massachusetts to supply the northeastern United States, where the majority of heating oil is used. The federal government used to maintain a stockpile of helium near Amarillo, Texas, but Congress ordered the reserve to be shut by 2021, and the government transitioned it to private-sector use. While it was initially hoarded for use in military blimps, helium today is used in rockets and in superconductors. Additionally, the Defense Department reportedly stockpiles rare earth minerals, which are used to manufacture advanced weaponry, and lithium, a critical input for advanced batteries, to curb its reliance on Chinese sources. The Pentagon also maintains a National Defense Stockpile of about $1.5 billion worth of various metals.

 

[matttyl]

Re: Norway - lots of factors of how they got to where they are. Norway provided incentives for EVs (free tolls, free parking, tax breaks) while simultaneously raising taxes on ICE cars. They also installed their own charger network (as opposed to Tesla doing theirs here, for instance). Norway itself is an extremely green country with nearly all its electricity coming from hydroelectric.

 

[massraider]

Bidirectional Charging

There's a blackout, and you can plug your Nissan leaf into your home, and power your home for multiple days. Whaaaaaa

Very cool.

 

[The General]

Re: Norway - lots of factors of how they got to where they are. Norway provided incentives for EVs (free tolls, free parking, tax breaks) while simultaneously raising taxes on ICE cars. They also installed their own charger network (as opposed to Tesla doing theirs here, for instance). Norway itself is an extremely green country with nearly all its electricity coming from hydroelectric.

This all sounds good to me.

 

[massraider]

Re: Norway - lots of factors of how they got to where they are. Norway provided incentives for EVs (free tolls, free parking, tax breaks) while simultaneously raising taxes on ICE cars. They also installed their own charger network (as opposed to Tesla doing theirs here, for instance). Norway itself is an extremely green country with nearly all its electricity coming from hydroelectric.

And they're teeny.
We're massive, we love our cars and trucks, those dumbbell Europeans use their cars only to get places.

I don't know about the car dealership model in Norway, but American car dealerships are not all excited to be selling new cars that require a lot less maintenance. Like gas stations selling Red Bull, they make their real money on the extraneous parts and services.

 

[matttyl]

Bidirectional Charging

There's a blackout, and you can plug your Nissan leaf into your home, and power your home for multiple days. Whaaaaaa

Very cool.

That was the big selling point of the f150 lightning.