When Will Internal Combustion Engine Cars Account For Less Than 5% Of New Car Sales In The US? (1 Viewer)

[Keerock]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

At the price point they have been for the last few years, for the most part, that’s correct. As prices continue to fall, the economic part will play a larger role. If it were all about fun we’d have Porches and Mini Coopers and such all over.

Yes I said mini Coopers. My last car was a mini and yes I did buy it cause it was fun (and a manual shift). But I was able to afford it because it wasn’t that expensive and was great on gas. It, to me, was the rare combination of fun and economical .

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[General Malaise]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

My wife always says we have no maintenance. We have deferred maintenance. When something needs to be done, it's going to cost.

Those tires ain't cheap and they wear out faster than ICE cars....but I think that's a small price to pay overall.

My next vehicle purchase will be an EV, just not sure when and what. For now, I'll just borrow the family truckster or one of my son's crappy beaters when I need to drive.

 

[humpback]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

Do you think people don't already know that they are "fun" to drive?

I agree that being fun is a reason, but disagree that it's the primary reason- I think you vastly overestimate the percentage of people who prioritize that. The other factors are important to many.

 

[Jobber]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

Do you think people don't already know that they are "fun" to drive?

I agree that being fun is a reason, but disagree that it's the primary reason- I think you vastly overestimate the percentage of people who prioritize that. The other factors are important to many.

They’re certainly a pleasure to drive, for sure. But I’m in it for the money. I switched to an EV from a gas guzzling minivan (~18mpg) which took a piece of my soul every time I filled up. My EV now is darn near comparable to filling up with tap water as far as costs go. I’m being facetious, but it indeed is about $25/mo and we put 17,000 miles/year on it.

All a guy has to do is bust out a napkin and do some quick math, and in many cases will be shocked at the fuel savings.

 

[matttyl]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

Do you think people don't already know that they are "fun" to drive?

I agree that being fun is a reason, but disagree that it's the primary reason- I think you vastly overestimate the percentage of people who prioritize that. The other factors are important to many.

They’re certainly a pleasure to drive, for sure. But I’m in it for the money. I switched to an EV from a gas guzzling minivan (~18mpg) which took a piece of my soul every time I filled up. My EV now is darn near comparable to filling up with tap water as far as costs go. I’m being facetious, but it indeed is about $25/mo and we put 17,000 miles/year on it.

All a guy has to do is bust out a napkin and do some quick math, and in many cases will be shocked at the fuel savings.

You getting some free charging or something? I’ve crunched the numbers and my electrical cost increase would be roughly 1/3 of what I’m currently paying in gas. Sounds like yours is only about half of that. Impressive either way.

 

[the moops]

. I'm not opposed to saving the earth, but that was not at all on my mind when I went that route. EVs seem to be pretty much the same -- get over a couple of (for now, significant) hurdles

What is the most significant for you? Do you haul a boat two states over?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

. I'm not opposed to saving the earth, but that was not at all on my mind when I went that route. EVs seem to be pretty much the same -- get over a couple of (for now, significant) hurdles

What is the most significant for you? Do you haul a boat two states over?

I don't own a boat, or anything similar. I do take road trips from time to time, and I probably won't buy an EV if I have to map out charging locations before I leave.

 

[the moops]

I was just looking at Tesla website. And this isn't just a Tesla thing, but the top line info they give for getting a new Tesla is 1) price, 2) range, 3) top speed (of 140 MPH). amd 4) 0-60 time

First, why are we allowing cars on the road that can go that fast? And second, is that top speed really a huge selling point for folks?

 

[massraider]

. I'm not opposed to saving the earth, but that was not at all on my mind when I went that route. EVs seem to be pretty much the same -- get over a couple of (for now, significant) hurdles

What is the most significant for you? Do you haul a boat two states over?

I don't own a boat, or anything similar. I do take road trips from time to time, and I probably won't buy an EV if I have to map out charging locations before I leave.

Hey, me neither, not if I have to tack the Triple A road map to the wall, and pull out the Yellow Pages, and map it out.
But I am going to assume there is an app somewhere on my phone for this.

 

[the moops]

and I probably won't buy an EV if I have to map out charging locations before I leave.

So are you out of the EV market all together unless charging stations are as ubiquitous as gas stations?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

and I probably won't buy an EV if I have to map out charging locations before I leave.

So are you out of the EV market all together unless charging stations are as ubiquitous as gas stations?

If it were entirely my decision to make, I would be very open to owning one EV (for getting around on a daily basis) and one ICE vehicle (for trips). The problem here is really Mrs. Karamazov. In her mind, "my" vehicle is always going to be the designated "road trip" vehicle regardless of what she drives, and she's not interested in electric. So there we are. I know that's not rational, but we all pick our battles and I'm content to just live with this one.

 

[Dragons]

. I'm not opposed to saving the earth, but that was not at all on my mind when I went that route. EVs seem to be pretty much the same -- get over a couple of (for now, significant) hurdles

What is the most significant for you? Do you haul a boat two states over?

I don't own a boat, or anything similar. I do take road trips from time to time, and I probably won't buy an EV if I have to map out charging locations before I leave.

Tesla's built in navigation will automatically route you through Tesla superchargers as needed for a long (or even a short trip if you're low on charge).

 

[Gally]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

 

[matttyl]

I was just looking at Tesla website. And this isn't just a Tesla thing, but the top line info they give for getting a new Tesla is 1) price, 2) range, 3) top speed (of 140 MPH). amd 4) 0-60 time

First, why are we allowing cars on the road that can go that fast? And second, is that top speed really a huge selling point for folks?

Many cars on the road today can go that fast, especially the sportier smaller 4 doors. A base 3 series BWM has a stated top speed of 155. I bet even a base model ford mustang could do that.

 

[matttyl]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

Yes, assuming you stay on interstates.

 

[the moops]

I was just looking at Tesla website. And this isn't just a Tesla thing, but the top line info they give for getting a new Tesla is 1) price, 2) range, 3) top speed (of 140 MPH). amd 4) 0-60 time

First, why are we allowing cars on the road that can go that fast? And second, is that top speed really a huge selling point for folks?

Many cars on the road today can go that fast, especially the sportier smaller 4 doors. A base 3 series BWM has a stated top speed of 155. I bet even a base model ford mustang could do that.

Oh I know. I even mentioned that it wasn’t a tesla thing.

 

[the moops]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

Yes, assuming you stay on interstates.

And way easier at this point if you have a Tesla over any other EV

 

[Gally]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

Yes, assuming you stay on interstates.

And way easier at this point if you have a Tesla over any other EV

I wasn't sure if they were spaced in a way to allow for continual movement across the country. For example, are there any gaps where you are over the normal range of an EV where you couldn't get to the next one? I am guessing there aren't too many routes you can take and probably have to take a specific route to make it. What would be the average "fill up" time at every stop (are there enough "fast" charging stations or will you have some multiple hour stops along the way)?

 

[the moops]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

Yes, assuming you stay on interstates.

And way easier at this point if you have a Tesla over any other EV

I wasn't sure if they were spaced in a way to allow for continual movement across the country. For example, are there any gaps where you are over the normal range of an EV where you couldn't get to the next one? I am guessing there aren't too many routes you can take and probably have to take a specific route to make it. What would be the average "fill up" time at every stop (are there enough "fast" charging stations or will you have some multiple hour stops along the way)?

There are hundreds of youtube videos explaining the routes and how long it took and how long they had to charge for etc. I don’t know the answers to your questions but it is easily found on the innerwebs

 

[matttyl]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

Yes, assuming you stay on interstates.

And way easier at this point if you have a Tesla over any other EV

I wasn't sure if they were spaced in a way to allow for continual movement across the country. For example, are there any gaps where you are over the normal range of an EV where you couldn't get to the next one? I am guessing there aren't too many routes you can take and probably have to take a specific route to make it. What would be the average "fill up" time at every stop (are there enough "fast" charging stations or will you have some multiple hour stops along the way)?

As of March this year there were 1,676 Tesla super charger locations in the US. California alone has 338. Id assume each location would have between 2-10+ stations?

 

[Terminalxylem]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

 

[beer 30]

Tesla's built in GPS/mapping will automatically route you through Tesla superchargers as needed for a long (or even a short trip if you're low on charge).

Are all these chargers open to the public?

I said from the beginning, hotels are losing out on a chunk of ancillary income by not having a bank of chargers. Couple private for hotel guests but have a couple available to the public on a pay as go basis. BRILLIANT!

 

[Jobber]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

Do you think people don't already know that they are "fun" to drive?

I agree that being fun is a reason, but disagree that it's the primary reason- I think you vastly overestimate the percentage of people who prioritize that. The other factors are important to many.

They’re certainly a pleasure to drive, for sure. But I’m in it for the money. I switched to an EV from a gas guzzling minivan (~18mpg) which took a piece of my soul every time I filled up. My EV now is darn near comparable to filling up with tap water as far as costs go. I’m being facetious, but it indeed is about $25/mo and we put 17,000 miles/year on it.

All a guy has to do is bust out a napkin and do some quick math, and in many cases will be shocked at the fuel savings.

You getting some free charging or something? I’ve crunched the numbers and my electrical cost increase would be roughly 1/3 of what I’m currently paying in gas. Sounds like yours is only about half of that. Impressive either way.

Here is the math. My utility rate for overnight EV charging is $.048/Kw. Lifetime average on the car is 3.4 miles/Kw.

17000 / 3.4 = 5000
5000 x .048 = 240
240 / 12 months.
And a few extra bucks per bill for the off peak measurement or fee or some such.

There was some up front cost of getting an electrician to come in and wire up the meter and install the circuit, as well as buying the JuieceBox EVSE charger. The state and feds did rebate me on a good chunk of that cost though.

 

[FairWarning]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

it would be nice to see a Tesla owner’s profile. My cousin owns one, also has a Toyota SUV. He is also en eye doctor.

 

[matttyl]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

Do you think people don't already know that they are "fun" to drive?

I agree that being fun is a reason, but disagree that it's the primary reason- I think you vastly overestimate the percentage of people who prioritize that. The other factors are important to many.

They’re certainly a pleasure to drive, for sure. But I’m in it for the money. I switched to an EV from a gas guzzling minivan (~18mpg) which took a piece of my soul every time I filled up. My EV now is darn near comparable to filling up with tap water as far as costs go. I’m being facetious, but it indeed is about $25/mo and we put 17,000 miles/year on it.

All a guy has to do is bust out a napkin and do some quick math, and in many cases will be shocked at the fuel savings.

You getting some free charging or something? I’ve crunched the numbers and my electrical cost increase would be roughly 1/3 of what I’m currently paying in gas. Sounds like yours is only about half of that. Impressive either way.

Here is the math. My utility rate for overnight EV charging is $.048/Kw. Lifetime average on the car is 3.4 miles/Kw.

17000 / 3.4 = 5000
5000 x .048 = 240
240 / 12 months.
And a few extra bucks per bill for the off peak measurement or fee or some such.

There was some up front cost of getting an electrician to come in and wire up the meter and install the circuit, as well as buying the JuieceBox EVSE charger. The state and feds did rebate me on a good chunk of that cost though.

Ah, overnight (off peak) rates. I think I’m 12 cents per kWh no matter when I use it. That’s the difference in your math and what I’ve calculated.

The town I work in has a free to use charger, though, which is often available. Like “free gas”, and with it I can have one of these pay themselves off much sooner. If my utility does go to off peak (which would be great as my washer/dryer, dishwasher, and thermostats are all “smart”, and I could even put a smart device on my water heater), I’d go for it.

 

[Ron Swanson]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

Right. A different kid of fun, image, etc. but the same motivator. They sure aren't bought for economy.

 

[Dragons]

Tesla's built in GPS/mapping will automatically route you through Tesla superchargers as needed for a long (or even a short trip if you're low on charge).

Are all these chargers open to the public?

I said from the beginning, hotels are losing out on a chunk of ancillary income by not having a bank of chargers. Couple private for hotel guests but have a couple available to the public on a pay as go basis. BRILLIANT!

Agreed, it is a big benefit to attract guests and earn revenue.

Teslas supercharger network (which the navigation will route you through), is open to all Tesla cars. Some stations have stalls open to non-tesla EVs. I believe they are targeting about 10% to be open to nom Tesla


The navigation will not route you through a 240V destination charger on a trip.

 

[Gally]

There are hundreds of youtube videos explaining the routes and how long it took and how long they had to charge for etc. I don’t know the answers to your questions but it is easily found on the innerwebs

I figured that was the case. I was just wondering if someone knew the info off the top of their heads having already researched it.

 

[the moops]

There are hundreds of youtube videos explaining the routes and how long it took and how long they had to charge for etc. I don’t know the answers to your questions but it is easily found on the innerwebs

I figured that was the case. I was just wondering if someone knew the info off the top of their heads having already researched it.

If I came across as snarky, I apologize. Was on phone.

I know one dude crossed the country in a Tesla in like 42 hours

 

[General Malaise]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

it would be nice to see a Tesla owner’s profile. My cousin owns one, also has a Toyota SUV. He is also en eye doctor.

Office of three dudes; two of them are Tesla owners. Both are portfolio managers. Neither one will ever buy another ICE for themselves. They LOVE their Teslas but my boss has had his for 7 years now and is going to buy the Mercedes EV next. Not a knock on Tesla, but he's 70 and, well, he CAN and this is his ultimate dream car. Other guy is 45, has had his for less than a year and is adamant he won't ever drive anything other than an EV personally, though he maintains that for longer road trips, he'll drive the family big rig (it's a Tahoe or some such monster gas guzzling SUV).

 

[Dragons]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

Yes, assuming you stay on interstates.

And way easier at this point if you have a Tesla over any other EV

I wasn't sure if they were spaced in a way to allow for continual movement across the country. For example, are there any gaps where you are over the normal range of an EV where you couldn't get to the next one? I am guessing there aren't too many routes you can take and probably have to take a specific route to make it. What would be the average "fill up" time at every stop (are there enough "fast" charging stations or will you have some multiple hour stops along the way)?

As of March this year there were 1,676 Tesla super charger locations in the US. California alone has 338. Id assume each location would have between 2-10+ stations?

For Tesla Supercharger Network: East / West and West / East, no real gaps. Some North/South and South/North routes out west will require some advance planning.

Supercharger | Tesla

Supercharger keeps you charged when you’re away from home. With a reliable global network, you can go anywhere and conveniently fast charge. Simply plug in, charge and go.

www.tesla.com

You can plan a trip here: https://www.tesla.com/trips

Again, this is for Tesla cars. Very few of these chargers are available for non-Tesla cars.

The non-Tesla networks are not as robust, but are growing in coverage. The main problem with the non-Tesla networks is the reliability of the stalls (which IMO is a bigger problem than not even having stalls). If you're coasting into a charging station, you need to know it's viable.


ETA - my friend owns a Mach-E and I understand that the Ford Navigation software will also route you through the non-Tesla superchargers.

 

[nysfl2]

Could you drive cross country right now with the number of charging stations available?

Yes, assuming you stay on interstates.

And way easier at this point if you have a Tesla over any other EV

I wasn't sure if they were spaced in a way to allow for continual movement across the country. For example, are there any gaps where you are over the normal range of an EV where you couldn't get to the next one? I am guessing there aren't too many routes you can take and probably have to take a specific route to make it. What would be the average "fill up" time at every stop (are there enough "fast" charging stations or will you have some multiple hour stops along the way)?

As of March this year there were 1,676 Tesla super charger locations in the US. California alone has 338. Id assume each location would have between 2-10+ stations?

For Tesla Supercharger Network: East / West and West / East, no real gaps. Some North/South and South/North routes out west will require some advance planning.

Supercharger | Tesla

Supercharger keeps you charged when you’re away from home. With a reliable global network, you can go anywhere and conveniently fast charge. Simply plug in, charge and go.

www.tesla.com

You can plan a trip here: https://www.tesla.com/trips

Again, this is for Tesla cars. Very few of these chargers are available for non-Tesla cars.

The non-Tesla networks are not as robust, but are growing in coverage. The main problem with the non-Tesla networks is the reliability of the stalls (which IMO is a bigger problem than not even having stalls). If you're coasting into a charging station, you need to know it's viable.


ETA - my friend owns a Mach-E and I understand that the Ford Navigation software will also route you through the non-Tesla superchargers.

It does - though oddly, it doesn't count your house as a charging station, so if you're going to be low on charge when you arrive home, it will keep trying to route you to a charging station instead

 

[Terminalxylem]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

Right. A different kid of fun, image, etc. but the same motivator. They sure aren't bought for economy.

Agree image is a thing for trucks/SUV, but more about practicality than fun.

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

it would be nice to see a Tesla owner’s profile. My cousin owns one, also has a Toyota SUV. He is also en eye doctor.

Office of three dudes; two of them are Tesla owners. Both are portfolio managers. Neither one will ever buy another ICE for themselves. They LOVE their Teslas but my boss has had his for 7 years now and is going to buy the Mercedes EV next. Not a knock on Tesla, but he's 70 and, well, he CAN and this is his ultimate dream car. Other guy is 45, has had his for less than a year and is adamant he won't ever drive anything other than an EV personally, though he maintains that for longer road trips, he'll drive the family big rig (it's a Tahoe or some such monster gas guzzling SUV).

One day I counted the number of Teslas in the employee lot. On one side of the deck, almost half the vehicles were Teslas, mostly Model 3s. I personally know 8 Tesla owners, a couple repeat buyers, and one dude with a Lucid.

@FairWarning is right: Tesla owners are squarely in the FBG demographic, which may explain our optimism for EV adoption.

 

[General Malaise]

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

Right. A different kid of fun, image, etc. but the same motivator. They sure aren't bought for economy.

Agree image is a thing for trucks/SUV, but more about practicality than fun.

I think Tesla's success has proven that most people don't buy EV's for "green" reasons. They buy them because they are super fun to drive and then justify it with better safety features (true, but only because Tesla piloted features and others have released on their EV's first like BlueCruise), lower maintenance (absolutely true), cheaper fuel, and finally the "green" aspect. People that buy EV's for "green" reasons buy Leafs so we pretty much know there aren't many of them.

EV's will take off quicker than anyone thinks because they are fun. No other reason is important.

They of course buy for green reasons. Green meaning money. If/when gas goes above $4/gallon (or above $6 in Cali), people will start crunching the numbers. Tesla will really win if they can figure the insurance part out. Saving a typical family $200 in gas per month AND $100+ in insurance (due to lower cost to insure a safer car that has fewer accidents). All from a car that’s currently starting under $40k and could be under $35k in a year (all before a potential $7,500 tax credit), they won’t be able to produce them fast enough.

I stand by what I said. The fun aspect is what motivates them to buy. Savings just helps to justify it. If money saving was why they bought we'd see a bazillion Leafs on the road.

While I agree Teslas are a great driving experience, most of the best selling vehicles in the US are trucks/SUVs. I think that suggests fun isn’t a major factor in the car buying decision, at least for the average American.

it would be nice to see a Tesla owner’s profile. My cousin owns one, also has a Toyota SUV. He is also en eye doctor.

Office of three dudes; two of them are Tesla owners. Both are portfolio managers. Neither one will ever buy another ICE for themselves. They LOVE their Teslas but my boss has had his for 7 years now and is going to buy the Mercedes EV next. Not a knock on Tesla, but he's 70 and, well, he CAN and this is his ultimate dream car. Other guy is 45, has had his for less than a year and is adamant he won't ever drive anything other than an EV personally, though he maintains that for longer road trips, he'll drive the family big rig (it's a Tahoe or some such monster gas guzzling SUV).

One day I counted the number of Teslas in the employee lot. On one side of the deck, almost half the vehicles were Teslas, mostly Model 3s. I personally know 8 Tesla owners, a couple repeat buyers, and one dude with a Lucid.

@FairWarning is right: Tesla owners are squarely in the FBG demographic, which may explain our optimism for EV adoption.

No question, re: FBG. Very practical lot, this crew. Not always but usually. 80% of the time we're 100% practical.

 

[Hov34]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

 

[Dragons]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

. I'm not opposed to saving the earth, but that was not at all on my mind when I went that route. EVs seem to be pretty much the same -- get over a couple of (for now, significant) hurdles

What is the most significant for you? Do you haul a boat two states over?

I don't own a boat, or anything similar. I do take road trips from time to time, and I probably won't buy an EV if I have to map out charging locations before I leave.

I think there are more charging stations than we think, they're just not yet these big giant "I'M RIGHT HERE LOOK AT MY GIANT SIGN" things that gas stations are. Not sure if that will change or not.

For instance we looked at putting an EV charger in to our short term rental property in Southern Utah to attract the EV crowd (of which there are surprisingly a ton in Utah). I was surprised to find out it wasn't necessary because there are actually 3 charging stations in town. This is fairly rural Utah, a town with 2 traffic lights and 2 gas stations had 3 charging stations. I had just never noticed them before.

 

[the moops]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

Yea, by 2040 or whenever this 5% # happens, there will be a ton of used EV's on the market. And even right now, you can find a used Nissan Leaf for under 7K

 

[Hov34]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

 

[Dragons]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

No one I know has thrown away their used ICE vehicle when they bought their first EV.

ETA - you also conveniently neglect to acknowledge the maintenance costs of a $3000 used ICE.

 

[matttyl]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

The exact same thing they do now? IclCE cars won’t all of a sudden vanish. Also, as newbEV cars get cheaper and cheaper, used ones will need to follow suit.

 

[the moops]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

 

[Terminalxylem]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

 

[the moops]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

We are talking well into the future here in all these scenarios. We will have better diagnostics and we will have a better sense of how much life is left in these batteries. What we will likely experience with older, used EVs is a decrease in maximum distance. So for the discounted price you will get 60% of what the max range used to be or something like that. Nobody should be buying a car for 3K that needs 10K in repairs

 

[matttyl]

I think the above also assumes that all that will be available will be EVs. I just don’t see that being the case, at least in our lifetimes. There will still be cheap ICE cars, both new and used.

 

[Ron Swanson]

So what are people who can only afford a $3000 to $5000 car going to do?

Buy a used car?

A used EV for $3000 that you'd probably have to replace a $10000 battery? You guys are hilarious.

Why would you buy a car that needs 10K in repairs?

I think he’s suggesting a used EV costing $3-5K will likely be near the end of its battery life.

ETA You might be able to get a 2012 LEAF at the upper end of his price range.

We are talking well into the future here in all these scenarios. We will have better diagnostics and we will have a better sense of how much life is left in these batteries. What we will likely experience with older, used EVs is a decrease in maximum distance. So for the discounted price you will get 60% of what the max range used to be or something like that. Nobody should be buying a car for 3K that needs 10K in repairs

Right. And never mind the fact that total pack failure seems highly unlikely based on the developments with older Teslas and even Nissan Leafs (with their cooling issues). Individual cell replacement is much more likely and the battery packs aren't worth nothing if they do need to be replaced. They can be repurposed into other applications (power wall, NEV, etc.) or re-manufactured. Additionally there are aftermarket replacement battery and re-manufacturing services coming to market that will put pressure on the OEMs. Just because Tesla or Ford lists a complete pack at $xx,xxx doesn't mean someone will ever actually buy it. "End of Battery Life" is a very misleading term.

 

[matttyl]

This whole idea of repurposing a “used” EV battery back into a whole house battery pack/backup source is very interesting and intriguing to me. Having that connected and hopefully being recharged with off peak power could do a lot to ease the strain on the grid with all thru EVs entering the market.

Is this something already being done, or is this an idea of what to do with the batteries going forward?

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Is this a true statement for all of us-

If Joe had asked about 95% of new sales in Europe, then the data would be earlier? Same as if the question was global sales?

While I think that manufacturers will certainly cater to the American market with larger vehicles, I'm not so sure that they will have much incentive to run a parallel fueling choices once electric dominates globally absent a hefty premium. In other words when that $15K premium for electric is now baked into every car and instead there is a 15K premium for keeping the ICE lines running. And other than for niche usages like pulling a boat, or pulling a camper who is paying this premium? And at what point does it no longer make sense to run a low margin gas station? I think the change is going to be so much quicker than we can imagine, based mostly on market forces. I mean the "Go Green" movements around the world might have regulatory or offered incentives to kick started the process, but it will be market dynamics that culturally change the perception as to which form of vehicle offers the best solution for most people. It is hard to see that today with most of EV offerings just "coming soon" pictures on web sites, but assuming they do arrive and relatively quicky work out the V1.0 kinks everything is about to change. And the ball might be rolling slow at first, but that doesn't seem likely to last. Too many forces at work. Too many dollars to mint. 1935, 12 years might be a bit too soon. But 1945 seems way too late.

 

[Dragons]

This whole idea of repurposing a “used” EV battery back into a whole house battery pack/backup source is very interesting and intriguing to me. Having that connected and hopefully being recharged with off peak power could do a lot to ease the strain on the grid with all thru EVs entering the market.

Is this something already being done, or is this an idea of what to do with the batteries going forward?

I believe hobbyists have been doing this, but there aren't enough used automotive batteries available yet to scale this kind of business.

Redwood Materials is working on scaling the recycling process and there may be more value in the minerals to recycle into a new battery than re-sell a less functional old. Time will tell.

 

[John123]

Is this a true statement for all of us-

If Joe had asked about 95% of new sales in Europe, then the data would be earlier? Same as if the question was global sales?

While I think that manufacturers will certainly cater to the American market with larger vehicles, I'm not so sure that they will have much incentive to run a parallel fueling choices once electric dominates globally absent a hefty premium. In other words when that $15K premium for electric is now baked into every car and instead there is a 15K premium for keeping the ICE lines running. And other than for niche usages like pulling a boat, or pulling a camper who is paying this premium? And at what point does it no longer make sense to run a low margin gas station? I think the change is going to be so much quicker than we can imagine, based mostly on market forces. I mean the "Go Green" movements around the world might have regulatory or offered incentives to kick started the process, but it will be market dynamics that culturally change the perception as to which form of vehicle offers the best solution for most people. It is hard to see that today with most of EV offerings just "coming soon" pictures on web sites, but assuming they do arrive and relatively quicky work out the V1.0 kinks everything is about to change. And the ball might be rolling slow at first, but that doesn't seem likely to last. Too many forces at work. Too many dollars to mint. 1935, 12 years might be a bit too soon. But 1945 seems way too late.

Did you know that, right now, you can get vehicles that run on natural gas? And there is a network of CNG fueling stations in the U.S.:

NGV Station Map – The Transport Project

ngvamerica.org

Yeah, not nearly as many as gasoline but there are probably a lot less CNG vehicles in use than there are EV's. And, even if they stopped selling gasoline vehicles tomorrow there would be a hell of a lot of them still in existence for a long time. Gasoline fueling stations aren't going away anytime soon.