Where are the NFL Players Coming From? (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

So here is my question, and I don't know the answer, so let's try and figure this out.

We all know that the general rule of thumb is that the average NFL career is 4-5 years.

Once upon a time (pre-1993) the NFL Draft was 12 rounds (or more, way back when).

Using 12 rounds, I get where the math kind of works. NFL Teams have about 60 players (53 man roster, 7 man practice squad, and a few players not on either list), so using 60 as a nice round number, you could see in a "Logan's Run" style of figuring this out that every fifth year 12 players would leave the league and 12 more would enter per team. That balances out.

Now I know that isn't how it works, but bear with me.

When they cut the rounds to seven, obviously the math doesn't work. With each team only getting 7 draft picks, it would take over 8 years to completely restock their rosters - yet the average career is but 5 years.

So here's the question:

Since the NFL went to a 7-round draft, are we (A) seeing players last longer, (B) seeing more undrafted free agents (UDFAs) enter the league, or (C.) is there another source of players that is unaccounted for - such as the XFL, AFL, AFL2, WFLE, CFL, etc.

I'm interested to hear both your answer and your reasoning. Thanks.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The NFL went to the seven round draft in 1994.

From 1994-2006, 11.32 players per team entered the league each year; from 1970-1986, 10.27 players per team entered the league each year.

From 1994-2006, 4.18 players per team entered the league each year via free agency; from 1970-1986, 2.14 players per team entered the league each year via free agency.

In the first round rounds of the draft, 6.99 players per team entered the league in the modern era vs. 5.63 players per team from '70-'86. Players from round 8 or later entered the league at an average rate of 0.00 in the modern era (duh), and 2.32 in the old era. The supplemental draft contributed 0.02 players per year in the modern era, and 0.10 players in the old era.

The numbers match to within a tenth of a point and not exactly, because (due to my mistake) I changed the system mid-way to account for the small number of players that entered the league after being drafted, but didn't enter the league in that draft year (like Johnny Musso).

The short answer to your questions are:

1) Players aren't playing longer; in fact, more players per team are entering the league now than before.

2) The players are coming through free agency, and in fact more players drafted in the first seven rounds are sticking on that before (that might not be a measure of effective drafting, though; I believe there are more draft picks through seven rounds now due to all the compensatory picks being handed out.)

 

[faux_bear]

so why did the NFL cut down the draft from 12 rounds to 7 rounds? Especially considering that a lot of UFA's are making solid contributions on the field?

MLB fields smaller rosters than the NFL, yet their drafts are upwards of around 40 (guesstimated large number) rounds... anyone know what the NFL's rationale was?

 

[redman]

Doesn't this study pretty much make clear that UDFA's make up a huge % of this league, and play at positions that tend to have lengthy careers?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

so why did the NFL cut down the draft from 12 rounds to 7 rounds? Especially considering that a lot of UFA's are making solid contributions on the field?MLB fields smaller rosters than the NFL, yet their drafts are upwards of around 40 (guesstimated large number) rounds... anyone know what the NFL's rationale was?

IIRC it was the NFLPA's idea.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The NFL went to the seven round draft in 1994.

From 1994-2006, 11.32 players per team entered the league each year; from 1970-1986, 10.27 players per team entered the league each year.

From 1994-2006, 4.18 players per team entered the league each year via free agency; from 1970-1986, 2.14 players per team entered the league each year via free agency.

In the first round rounds of the draft, 6.99 players per team entered the league in the modern era vs. 5.63 players per team from '70-'86. Players from round 8 or later entered the league at an average rate of 0.00 in the modern era (duh), and 2.32 in the old era. The supplemental draft contributed 0.02 players per year in the modern era, and 0.10 players in the old era.

The numbers match to within a tenth of a point and not exactly, because (due to my mistake) I changed the system mid-way to account for the small number of players that entered the league after being drafted, but didn't enter the league in that draft year (like Johnny Musso).

The short answer to your questions are:

1) Players aren't playing longer; in fact, more players per team are entering the league now than before.

2) The players are coming through free agency, and in fact more players drafted in the first seven rounds are sticking on that before (that might not be a measure of effective drafting, though; I believe there are more draft picks through seven rounds now due to all the compensatory picks being handed out.)

Nice answer, Chase.Where did you get those stats?

 

[Chadstroma]

so why did the NFL cut down the draft from 12 rounds to 7 rounds? Especially considering that a lot of UFA's are making solid contributions on the field?MLB fields smaller rosters than the NFL, yet their drafts are upwards of around 40 (guesstimated large number) rounds... anyone know what the NFL's rationale was?

If you take into account the farm teams under them the MLB teams actually have a significant amount of more players to draft.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The NFL went to the seven round draft in 1994.

From 1994-2006, 11.32 players per team entered the league each year; from 1970-1986, 10.27 players per team entered the league each year.

From 1994-2006, 4.18 players per team entered the league each year via free agency; from 1970-1986, 2.14 players per team entered the league each year via free agency.

In the first round rounds of the draft, 6.99 players per team entered the league in the modern era vs. 5.63 players per team from '70-'86. Players from round 8 or later entered the league at an average rate of 0.00 in the modern era (duh), and 2.32 in the old era. The supplemental draft contributed 0.02 players per year in the modern era, and 0.10 players in the old era.

The numbers match to within a tenth of a point and not exactly, because (due to my mistake) I changed the system mid-way to account for the small number of players that entered the league after being drafted, but didn't enter the league in that draft year (like Johnny Musso).

The short answer to your questions are:

1) Players aren't playing longer; in fact, more players per team are entering the league now than before.

2) The players are coming through free agency, and in fact more players drafted in the first seven rounds are sticking on that before (that might not be a measure of effective drafting, though; I believe there are more draft picks through seven rounds now due to all the compensatory picks being handed out.)

Nice answer, Chase.Where did you get those stats?

Thanks, Jeff. I've got a big database of all players in NFL history, so it just took a bit of mixing and matching to get that info.