Where are you drafting Ricky Williams (1 Viewer)

[hove]

Where are you drafting Ricky Williams, now that he is #1 on depth chart

Came here to say... I'm not. I know you aren't supposed to love someone or hate someone and draft with value, but he's just someone I won't ever trust again to be on my team regardless of the round I can get him in.

 

[Football Jones]

If you draft Ricky as a starter or top reserve, I believe you're going to be sorely disappointed. They have a younger & more talented RB who fits in their longterm plans. I believe Brown has 19 mil guaranteed & at the time of his injury, he was FF's leading RB in an offense that didn't have squat (only a decent OL which could be one of he league's better untis as early as this season). That combination virtually guarantees he'll be their feature back sometime this season (as soon as Miami feels he can carry the load). My guess is Brown will be getting the majority of touches by week 4 & will become their workhorse (or feature back) by week 8. With Pennington & Henne, an emerging Ginn, along with Fasano, you're looking at one of the better up & coming offenses in the league. Brown's recovery is going well & don't forget he's an excellent eceiver. His value only goes up in PPR leagues. In 7 games, Brown had over 600 yards on the ground with a 5.1 average/4 TDs along with 39 receptions at an incredible 10 yards per catch & 1 TD thru the air. Without doing the exact math, that translates to about 1350 yards on the ground/9 TDs along with 90 receptions for 900 yards/1 TD. Projected totals are 2250 combined yards/11 TDs & 90 receptions in PPR leagues. All with virtually no help from the other skill positions while only playing part-time the first 2 games w. RW is a classic case of fool's gold, IMO.

So what round did you draft Ronnie in?

LOL. Obviously, we tend to draft/acquire the players were highest on, but I'm mostly referring to Brown's dynasty value (& have stated that in previous posts). I do own him in 3 of my 5 dynasty leagues (& will be looking to acquire him in the other 2).

 

[Mordraken]

Am I the only one thinking back to 2007 and the Jessie Chatman/Ronnie Brown pre-season depth chart announcement? Or Mike Bell in Denver in 2006?

I wouldn't personally want either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams as my #2 RBs. RB3 - sure. For Ricky specifically I wouldn't rely on him for more than 1/2 the season - as Ronnie gets back into the groove. I can see them splitting carries quite evenly - maybe a 60 Ricky /30 Ronnie split to start the year (the other 10 going to other RBs or the QB) moving up to a 50/40 split then flipping following mid-season to a 40/50 provided Ricky stays productive.

Can anyone really see Ricky Williams carrying the ball for a 4.2+ ypc average? With 20 carries a game (on the high side for him & the dolphins IMO) that's only ~90 yards a game. And that is a very optimistic view for Ricky Williams. I would more expect that out of a healthy Ronnie Brown (plus 20-30 catching) IF they were the #1 carrier in a 70/20 split. But that isn't going to happen.

So bottom line on this (my opinion):

If you want a guy who is going to be a (fantasy) backup for the first part of the year while you wait for another long-shot to get an opportunity (like Ray Rice for Baltimore or perhaps Mendehall taking over in week 7 for an injured Willie Parker) then go for Ricky. If you want a player who will be better later in the season (including down the playoff stretch) take Ronnie Brown (same for dynasty).

Neither one should be relied on for a 16-week fantasy schedule, and likely neither should be relied on to start for your fantasy team unless it's the bottom end of the 24 starting RBs.

 

[TheWick]

lol @....

there seems to be one of these posts in just about every thread. you sure lol at a lot of people.

put his butt on ignore...I did yesterday...much better now

 

[Marc Levin]

his APG has sky rocketed last two days! That I do know. So has Chris Perry as I am in middle of many drafts. If you want Riki your gonna have to get him 6th. Up from 10th last week! If you want Perry no later then mid 8th it looks like from drafts yesterday! Ronnie is falling as is Rudi! Harrison is climbing like crazy even going in 3rd places now. Slayton and Royal two others moveing up like nuts. SLAYTON even went before Chris Johnson last night. I havn;t got my hands on any of them yet as owners are making huge reaches every draft of mine over current ADP!

On a side note, I think the owners you are saying recently are "reaching" for guys like Slayton & Royal & Perry & Ricky are making moves that usually win leagues. Honestly, you have to throw out ADP late August when you are talking about "a guy was a 12th round pick two weeks ago" but "now he is going in the 7th" or whatever. IMO, if you think a guy is going to perform better than your other options at that draft slot, you take him, regardless of what his ADP was last week.

 

[MAC_32]

RB's on bad offenses are typically ones to avoid, Sticky's age doesn't seem to match Miami's rebuilding plan (I fear he loses the job midseason), and he is over 30 years old.The whole RB situation in Miami seems like a mess now, I wouldn't touch either until the 9th or 10th round - neither should be available.

Actually, it is RBs on a team with a bad defense that should be avoided. These teams will be throwing often to try and keep pace on the scoreboard and won't be killing clock via the ground game in the 4th quarter.

They're both likely true, I've read the RB-bad QB theory evidence and it is statistically conclusive. I haven't with RB-bad defense but logically I'd have to agree. That said Miami's defense isn't too good either.

 

[kylechoffman]

Is the 6th round too early for ronnie? Im sure hes falling, as is rudi but when are either of them super solid value for a rb3?

 

[The Kansas Comet]

As far as drafting Ricky, I can't see myself pulling the trigger before the 8th round in my 12 team league. I have a few reasons for this. First, as mentioned by previous posters, I think they'll be trailing in enough games thanks to their defense. They weren't that good last year, and trading away Taylor (even though it makes sense for the long term) doesn't make them any better. They play some good offenses in their first 5 games, so even if RW is slated to get the bulk of the carries early on, those won't be games where the Dolphins will be in a position to run out the clock.

The second reason I won't be drafting Ricky higher than the 8th is that I don't believe the "Brown could be traded" talk. It makes no sense because even if Miami decided he wasn't their guy, his value could hardly be lower at this point. He's coming back from an ACL injury, now he's got a bad thumb. If Parcells and Co. want to deal him, better for everyone involved to do so after Brown has gotten healthy and flashed some of the form he displayed in 2007 before his injury. As a result, I think RW and Brown will be sharing the load this year.

The third reason is, it's Ricky Williams. Yes, I remember how talented he was. He helped me win my main money league in 2002. When his head was in the game and he was healthy, the guy was a beast. But since the 2003 season, he's played in all of 13 NFL games. Why? Attitude and injury. His head appears to be on straight, but how long will that last? And what about his health? 4 of his 7 NFL seasons saw him play 12 games or fewer and his one season in the CFL was injury-plagued as well.

I think Ricky could do well this year - Brown certainly could get hurt more severely and miss time, and perhaps the addition of Pennington will make the Dolphin offense more productive (though I don't think it will stretch the field enough to keep opposing safeties from creeping up closer to play the run). Perhaps Sparano and Co. figure out a way for the defense to improve on its #23 ranking from a year ago and keep things close enough to be able to run in the second half of games. But with the conditions that exist now, I think Williams is too risky to spend anything earlier than an 8th rounder for me.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

As far as drafting Ricky, I can't see myself pulling the trigger before the 8th round in my 12 team league. I have a few reasons for this. First, as mentioned by previous posters, I think they'll be trailing in enough games thanks to their defense. They weren't that good last year, and trading away Taylor (even though it makes sense for the long term) doesn't make them any better. They play some good offenses in their first 5 games, so even if RW is slated to get the bulk of the carries early on, those won't be games where the Dolphins will be in a position to run out the clock.

The second reason I won't be drafting Ricky higher than the 8th is that I don't believe the "Brown could be traded" talk. It makes no sense because even if Miami decided he wasn't their guy, his value could hardly be lower at this point. He's coming back from an ACL injury, now he's got a bad thumb. If Parcells and Co. want to deal him, better for everyone involved to do so after Brown has gotten healthy and flashed some of the form he displayed in 2007 before his injury. As a result, I think RW and Brown will be sharing the load this year.

The third reason is, it's Ricky Williams. Yes, I remember how talented he was. He helped me win my main money league in 2002. When his head was in the game and he was healthy, the guy was a beast. But since the 2003 season, he's played in all of 13 NFL games. Why? Attitude and injury. His head appears to be on straight, but how long will that last? And what about his health? 4 of his 7 NFL seasons saw him play 12 games or fewer and his one season in the CFL was injury-plagued as well.

I think Ricky could do well this year - Brown certainly could get hurt more severely and miss time, and perhaps the addition of Pennington will make the Dolphin offense more productive (though I don't think it will stretch the field enough to keep opposing safeties from creeping up closer to play the run). Perhaps Sparano and Co. figure out a way for the defense to improve on its #23 ranking from a year ago and keep things close enough to be able to run in the second half of games. But with the conditions that exist now, I think Williams is too risky to spend anything earlier than an 8th rounder for me.

All fair points, but they did lose their top 4 - yes 4 - safeties last year, as well as some corners. Losing Taylor is certainly a huge loss, but assuming that they dont go to the 5th and 6th safeties as starters, they may be able to make up for the loss of JT with a far more stable and experienced secondary to help keep them in games.They also signed some NFL-caliber LBs to play this season - which was abig hole when Zack went down last year. And, they drafted a new starter in Kendall Langford, as well as Phillip Merling.

I am a Fins fan, so I may be wearing the aqua glasses, but I see the D improving from last season even without JT.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I see Ricky as a guy to draft (if he doesn't go silly early), play against the Jets and Cards and then trade.

 

[Marc Levin]

Is the 6th round too early for ronnie? Im sure hes falling, as is rudi but when are either of them super solid value for a rb3?

Isn't this a Ricky Williams thread?In any case, he just went in the top half of the 5th round of a draft I was in tonight. 5.04. Too early for me - I might have reached for him in the mid-6th (I had the 6.07), and certainly would have accepted him at 7.05.

 

[Marc Levin]

they did lose their top 4 - yes 4 - safeties last year, as well as some corners.

I could spend three pages of text writing about this issue. Considering the pass rush I saw on most plays, this was a straight up killer. When Will Allen is your star in the backfield, you have suffered a lot of injuries.

I am a Fins fan, so I may be wearing the aqua glasses, but I see the D improving from last season even without JT.

Me too - on both fronts.

 

[biggamer3]

Saw him go in the 4th round!

 

[Sweet Love]

I just had a 10 teamer and was shocked that I got him in the 12th...what is more bizarre is that I got Ronnie Brown in the 15th round...this league has some pretty sharp people in it and we only start 2 RBs (plus the scoring is funky), so I saved my enthusiasm for the car in case there is something I am missing

 

[Alias]

I just noticed Ronnie is ahead of Ricky in the latest VBD, does Joe & David think Ronnie will retake the starting role midseason?

 

[jerseys finest]

Am I the only one thinking back to 2007 and the Jessie Chatman/Ronnie Brown pre-season depth chart announcement? Or Mike Bell in Denver in 2006?I wouldn't personally want either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams as my #2 RBs. RB3 - sure. For Ricky specifically I wouldn't rely on him for more than 1/2 the season - as Ronnie gets back into the groove. I can see them splitting carries quite evenly - maybe a 60 Ricky /30 Ronnie split to start the year (the other 10 going to other RBs or the QB) moving up to a 50/40 split then flipping following mid-season to a 40/50 provided Ricky stays productive.Can anyone really see Ricky Williams carrying the ball for a 4.2+ ypc average? With 20 carries a game (on the high side for him & the dolphins IMO) that's only ~90 yards a game. And that is a very optimistic view for Ricky Williams. I would more expect that out of a healthy Ronnie Brown (plus 20-30 catching) IF they were the #1 carrier in a 70/20 split. But that isn't going to happen.So bottom line on this (my opinion):If you want a guy who is going to be a (fantasy) backup for the first part of the year while you wait for another long-shot to get an opportunity (like Ray Rice for Baltimore or perhaps Mendehall taking over in week 7 for an injured Willie Parker) then go for Ricky. If you want a player who will be better later in the season (including down the playoff stretch) take Ronnie Brown (same for dynasty).Neither one should be relied on for a 16-week fantasy schedule, and likely neither should be relied on to start for your fantasy team unless it's the bottom end of the 24 starting RBs.

this mimics my thoughts on the situation as well. good post mordraken

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Am I the only one thinking back to 2007 and the Jessie Chatman/Ronnie Brown pre-season depth chart announcement? Or Mike Bell in Denver in 2006?

I wouldn't personally want either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams as my #2 RBs. RB3 - sure. For Ricky specifically I wouldn't rely on him for more than 1/2 the season - as Ronnie gets back into the groove. I can see them splitting carries quite evenly - maybe a 60 Ricky /30 Ronnie split to start the year (the other 10 going to other RBs or the QB) moving up to a 50/40 split then flipping following mid-season to a 40/50 provided Ricky stays productive.

Can anyone really see Ricky Williams carrying the ball for a 4.2+ ypc average? With 20 carries a game (on the high side for him & the dolphins IMO) that's only ~90 yards a game. And that is a very optimistic view for Ricky Williams. I would more expect that out of a healthy Ronnie Brown (plus 20-30 catching) IF they were the #1 carrier in a 70/20 split. But that isn't going to happen.

So bottom line on this (my opinion):

If you want a guy who is going to be a (fantasy) backup for the first part of the year while you wait for another long-shot to get an opportunity (like Ray Rice for Baltimore or perhaps Mendehall taking over in week 7 for an injured Willie Parker) then go for Ricky. If you want a player who will be better later in the season (including down the playoff stretch) take Ronnie Brown (same for dynasty).

Neither one should be relied on for a 16-week fantasy schedule, and likely neither should be relied on to start for your fantasy team unless it's the bottom end of the 24 starting RBs.

this mimics my thoughts on the situation as well. good post mordraken

How good of a post is it? 90 yards per game is 1440 rushing yards on a 16 week season. Even if that represents Ricky's high side, I dont see how this estimate lends itself to being a reason to not like Ricky. If anythign, that estimate represents an argument to draft Ricky in the 3-5th round as a RB with great upside.Personally, I dont see him averaging 90 yards ber game, but if that is what you think he has a chance to get, move him up your boards!

 

[PatrickT]

I got him at 8.01 in a 12 team, PPR league. 2 picks after Ronnie Brown.

 

[biggamer3]

Am I the only one thinking back to 2007 and the Jessie Chatman/Ronnie Brown pre-season depth chart announcement? Or Mike Bell in Denver in 2006?

I wouldn't personally want either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams as my #2 RBs. RB3 - sure. For Ricky specifically I wouldn't rely on him for more than 1/2 the season - as Ronnie gets back into the groove. I can see them splitting carries quite evenly - maybe a 60 Ricky /30 Ronnie split to start the year (the other 10 going to other RBs or the QB) moving up to a 50/40 split then flipping following mid-season to a 40/50 provided Ricky stays productive.

Can anyone really see Ricky Williams carrying the ball for a 4.2+ ypc average? With 20 carries a game (on the high side for him & the dolphins IMO) that's only ~90 yards a game. And that is a very optimistic view for Ricky Williams. I would more expect that out of a healthy Ronnie Brown (plus 20-30 catching) IF they were the #1 carrier in a 70/20 split. But that isn't going to happen.

So bottom line on this (my opinion):

If you want a guy who is going to be a (fantasy) backup for the first part of the year while you wait for another long-shot to get an opportunity (like Ray Rice for Baltimore or perhaps Mendehall taking over in week 7 for an injured Willie Parker) then go for Ricky. If you want a player who will be better later in the season (including down the playoff stretch) take Ronnie Brown (same for dynasty).

Neither one should be relied on for a 16-week fantasy schedule, and likely neither should be relied on to start for your fantasy team unless it's the bottom end of the 24 starting RBs.

this mimics my thoughts on the situation as well. good post mordraken

How good of a post is it? 90 yards per game is 1440 rushing yards on a 16 week season. Even if that represents Ricky's high side, I dont see how this estimate lends itself to being a reason to not like Ricky. If anythign, that estimate represents an argument to draft Ricky in the 3-5th round as a RB with great upside.Personally, I dont see him averaging 90 yards ber game, but if that is what you think he has a chance to get, move him up your boards!