Where Do QBs Come From? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

This is not a thread on sexuality or human development (check the FFA for that). It's a breakdown of where NFL QBs have come from in the past 20 years. For starters, I am using Career AV as the metric of how well each player has performed. It's not ideal, but it at least is a starting off point. I looked up where all QBs were drafted over that time. I randomly am using a baseline of 50 Career AV to be considered as a successful draft pick or player acquisition. There were 28 QBs drafted that hit the 50 Career AV threshold. (Granted, more recent picks will get to that the longer they play.) When including undrafted QBs, there were a total of 33 players. Here is a breakdown of how things shaped up:

TOP 10 DRAFT PICKS
29 players picked, 10 players at 50 Career AV (34.5%). 9 players at 20 Career AV or lower (31%). 4 players at 10 Career AV or lower (13.8%, but one is Mariota).

PLAYERS IN REMAINDER OF FIRST ROUND
21 players selected. 6 players at 50 Career AV (28.6%). 10 players at 20 Career AV or lower (47.6%). 5 players at 10 Career AV or lower (23.8%).

2ND ROUND PICKS
22 players selected, 3 players at 50 Career AV (13.6%). 14 players at 20 Career AV or lower (63.6%). 9 players at 10 Career AV or lower (40.9%).

3RD ROUND PICKS
25 players selected. 3 players at 50 Career AV (12%). 20 players at 20 Career AV or lower (80%). 17 players at 10 Career AV or lower (68%).

4TH ROUND PICKS
27 players selected. 2 players at 50 Career AV (7.4%). 24 players at 20 Career AV or lower (88.9%). 19 players at 10 Career AV or lower (70.4%).

5TH ROUND PICKS
30 players selected. 0 players at 50 Career AV (0%). 90 players at 20 Career AV or lower (100%). 30 players at 10 Career AV or lower (100%).

6TH ROUND PICKS
42 players selected. 3 players at 50 Career AV (7.1%). 38 players at 20 Career AV or lower (90.5%). 37 players at 10 Career AV or lower (88.1%).

7TH ROUND PICKS
43 players selected. 1 player at 50 Career AV (2.3%). 41 players at 20 Career AV or lower (95.3%). 41 players at 10 Career AV or lower (95.3%).

UNDRAFTED PLAYERS
5 QBs went on to score 50+ Career AV.

Here's a breakdown of those QBs that started playing in 1996 or later with at least a score of 50 Career AV.

Year, Round, Pick#, Player, Team, Career AV

1998 1 1 Peyton Manning IND 177
2000 6 199 Tom Brady NWE 160
2001 2 32 Drew Brees SDG 147
2004 1 4 Philip Rivers NYG 121
2004 NA NA Tony Romo DAL 116
1998 NA NA Kurt Warner STL 113
2005 1 24 Aaron Rodgers GNB 112
2004 1 11 Roethlisberger PIT 108
1999 1 2 Donovan McNabb PHI 107
2004 1 1 Eli Manning SDG 104
1999 NA NA Jeff Garcia SFO 104
2003 1 1 Carson Palmer CIN 100
2008 1 3 Matt Ryan ATL 96
2001 1 1 Michael Vick ATL 93
1997 NA NA Jon Kitna SEA 89
1998 6 187 Matt Hasselbeck GNB 88
1999 1 11 D Culpepper MIN 86
2006 1 11 Jay Cutler DEN 83
1997 2 42 Jake Plummer ARI 77
2011 1 1 Cam Newton CAR 76
2008 1 18 Joe Flacco BAL 75
2005 1 1 Alex Smith SFO 72
2004 3 90 Matt Schaub ATL 69
1999 NA NA Jake Delhomme NOS 67
2012 3 75 Russell Wilson SEA 65
1999 4 131 Aaron Brooks GNB 65
2009 1 1 Matt Stafford DET 64
2002 4 108 David Garrard JAX 61
2005 7 250 R Fitzpatrick STL 61
2000 6 168 Marc Bulger NOR 57
2000 1 18 Chad Pennington NYJ 55
2011 2 35 Andy Dalton CIN 55
1998 3 91 Brian Griese DEN 52


Other tidbits:
There were 239 QBs drafted and 28 that hit the 50 Career AV mark (20.9%), with that going to climb some as recent players play more.
There were 47 QBs drafted that never even played in the NFL (19.7%).
There were 43 QBs drafted that had a Career AV score of 0 (18%), making 37.7% of QB drafted with a Career AV of 0.
An incredible 160 of 239 QBs drafted had Career AV scores of 10 of less (66.9%).
1st round picks accounted for 16 of the 33 QBs (48.5%) with Career AV of 50 or more.
2nd round picks accounted for 3 of the 33 QBs (9.1%) with Career AV of 50 of more.
3rd round picks accounted for 3 of the 33 QBs (9.1%) with Career AV of 50 or more.
4th round picks accounted for 2 of the 33 QBs (6.1%) with Career AV of 50 or more.
5th round picks accounted for none of the 33 QBs (0%) with Career AV of 50 or more.
6th round picks accounted for 3 of the 33 QBs (9.1%) with Career AV of 50 or more.
7th round picks accounted for 1 of the 33 QBs (3%) with Career AV of 50 or more.
Undrafted players accounted for 5 of the 33 QBs (15.2%) with Career AV of 50 or more.
Trent Green is not included even though his Career AV is 111. He didn't play until 1997 but was drafted in 1993.

 

[petekrum]

Wow, that's a lot of writing.

 

[joey]

very interesting.

any trends on schools or conferences for this same group of QBs?

 

[ZWK]

Pick #1 seems deserving of its own category. 7 50 AV QBs have come from pick #1, which is more than from any of the other categories. Success rate is 7/13 (54%), and that is with Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston still sitting in the "failure" category. If we put the young 10 AV/year players in the "success" category, then that's a 9/13 (69%) success rate for #1 picks (and I believe that Teddy Bridgewater & Ryan Tannehill are the only other additions to the "success" category).

 

[FUBAR]

very interesting.

any trends on schools or conferences for this same group of QBs?

Stay away from Alabama (roll tide) QBs.

The great state of Michigan produces quite a few.