Where does Curtis Martin Go? (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

Talking from a value standpoint... I think he's got another good 11-1200 yard season in him.... where do you see him going?

Seems to me like he'd be great value in the 4th round. Just looking to get some thoughts.

Everyone sounds sold on Martin as a washed up has-been, but I still see some football left in him. Considering how the Jets drafted, would look to me like they see another season in Martin as well.

 

[gocats]

Talking from a value standpoint... I think he's got another good 11-1200 yard season in him.... where do you see him going?

Seems to me like he'd be great value in the 4th round. Just looking to get some thoughts.

Everyone sounds sold on Martin as a washed up has-been, but I still see some football left in him. Considering how the Jets drafted, would look to me like they see another season in Martin as well.

Totally agree with youhttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...l=Curtis+Martin

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm with you man. I think Cmart could end up being solid value this year. Ahman Green and Fred Taylor are other guys that springs to mind, as I've seen them going as late as round 6 in many mocks.

Everyone wants the next great young RB, but some of the older guys can still give some great value.

 

[TS Garp]

I don't know, he averaged 3.3 YPC last season and only had one game over 100 yds (yes, I know he only played in 12 games). Sure, he could be a good value if he drops beyond the 7th or 8th round, but I still think he's a reach in the 5th, and I don't see him rushing for 1200 yds. Martin's had a tremendous career and he seems like a good guy, so I've always been a fan, but I don't see him putting up big numbers this year.

 

[slayer666]

I recently participated in a 12-team mock (with the rookies loaded in the database) where Curtis Martin was selected with the 5.12 pick.

 

[hoofnstang]

I'm in a first year dynasty draft, he's still available in the 7th. As is Green and Chris Brown. Taylor went in the 6th.

 

[minister]

I'm a Curtis Martin fan but the mileage on him is daunting. He has had 4221 career touches by my count.

For reference, other backs with 2500+ career touches (again, by my count):

- Jerome Bettis, 3884 touches

- Marshall Faulk, 3820

- Corey Dillon, 2754

- Edgerrin James, 2729

- Warrick Dunn, 2548

- Tiki Barber, 2535

Supposing touches=wear, Martin, Bettis and Faulk have been "worn" well beyond all other active pros.

Beyond 2956 touches (his last four seasons), Bettis had a notable decline in production and health.

A top-21 fantasy running back for 8 of the previous 9 seasons, Bettis ranked 31, 26, 18, 36 the past 4 years.

Beyond 2866 touches (the past four seasons), Faulk has had a significant decline in production and health.

A top-10 fantasy running back for 7 of 8 seasons previously, Faulk has ranked 14, 16, 29, 53 the past 4 years.

Beyond 2809 touches (the past four seasons), Martin has performed remarkably well.

Yet, the 2002, 2003, and 2005 seasons were the poorest of his career fantasy-wise.

Martin's 2004 season was absolutely one for the ages.

Unfortunately, I believe his 457 touches that year will prove to have broken him.

With respect to the OP, I don't see any more 1000 yard seasons left for Curtis Martin.

I think last year's production (850 yards) is a fair ceiling for him, with much downside.

Sadly, it wouldn't surprise me if he never plays another down.

 

[Patoons]

I don't know, he averaged 3.3 YPC last season and only had one game over 100 yds (yes, I know he only played in 12 games). Sure, he could be a good value if he drops beyond the 7th or 8th round, but I still think he's a reach in the 5th, and I don't see him rushing for 1200 yds. Martin's had a tremendous career and he seems like a good guy, so I've always been a fan, but I don't see him putting up big numbers this year.

He also had a third string QB, Guard playing center and was nicked up from week 3 onward. This guy had twelve in the box every game with teams daring Bollinger to beat them. Couple that with the awful offensive line and you have a 3.3 ypc. I don't see how, if healthy (which is currently a question based on Mangini's press conference yesterday), he should perform decently. You have to assume they will give a young guy a shot this year to see if they have their back on the squad or if they need to address that situation next season.

ETA: I would think he'll hit around 800 5-7 TD's.

 

[NYRAGE]

I don't know, he averaged 3.3 YPC last season and only had one game over 100 yds (yes, I know he only played in 12 games). Sure, he could be a good value if he drops beyond the 7th or 8th round, but I still think he's a reach in the 5th, and I don't see him rushing for 1200 yds. Martin's had a tremendous career and he seems like a good guy, so I've always been a fan, but I don't see him putting up big numbers this year.

He also had a third string QB, Guard playing center and was nicked up from week 3 onward. This guy had twelve in the box every game with teams daring Bollinger to beat them. Couple that with the awful offensive line and you have a 3.3 ypc. I don't see how, if healthy (which is currently a question based on Mangini's press conference yesterday), he should perform decently. You have to assume they will give a young guy a shot this year to see if they have their back on the squad or if they need to address that situation next season.

ETA: I would think he'll hit around 800 5-7 TD's.

Nicked up is an understatement. The man hurt his knee in week 2 and needed surgery, but gutted it out.

Throw in injuries to the o-line and the Jets going down the their 3rd and 4th string QBs, and the season is one to throw out. He did lead the league in rushing just the season before last. That said, the Jets will be looking towards building for the future, so expect Martin's load to decrease as they integrate Houston and Washington. He could be a decent third RB if you draft him around the 6th round.

 

[TS Garp]

I don't know, he averaged 3.3 YPC last season and only had one game over 100 yds (yes, I know he only played in 12 games). Sure, he could be a good value if he drops beyond the 7th or 8th round, but I still think he's a reach in the 5th, and I don't see him rushing for 1200 yds. Martin's had a tremendous career and he seems like a good guy, so I've always been a fan, but I don't see him putting up big numbers this year.

He also had a third string QB, Guard playing center and was nicked up from week 3 onward. This guy had twelve in the box every game with teams daring Bollinger to beat them. Couple that with the awful offensive line and you have a 3.3 ypc. I don't see how, if healthy (which is currently a question based on Mangini's press conference yesterday), he should perform decently. You have to assume they will give a young guy a shot this year to see if they have their back on the squad or if they need to address that situation next season.

ETA: I would think he'll hit around 800 5-7 TD's.

I'm not saying he'll be worthless, just that 1200 yds is a reach, as is picking him in the 4th or 5th. Your projections seem about right to me -- I would say 750-800 yds and 5 td's. He'll have his moments, but his best football is behind him.

 

[JohnnyU]

This would be a good time for a piece of toast emoticon.

 

[Rovers]

I'm a Curtis Martin fan but the mileage on him is daunting. He has had 4221 career touches by my count.

For reference, other backs with 2500+ career touches (again, by my count):

- Jerome Bettis, 3884 touches

- Marshall Faulk, 3820

- Corey Dillon, 2754

- Edgerrin James, 2729

- Warrick Dunn, 2548

- Tiki Barber, 2535

Supposing touches=wear, Martin, Bettis and Faulk have been "worn" well beyond all other active pros.

Beyond 2956 touches (his last four seasons), Bettis had a notable decline in production and health.

A top-21 fantasy running back for 8 of the previous 9 seasons, Bettis ranked 31, 26, 18, 36 the past 4 years.

Beyond 2866 touches (the past four seasons), Faulk has had a significant decline in production and health.

A top-10 fantasy running back for 7 of 8 seasons previously, Faulk has ranked 14, 16, 29, 53 the past 4 years.

Beyond 2809 touches (the past four seasons), Martin has performed remarkably well.

Yet, the 2002, 2003, and 2005 seasons were the poorest of his career fantasy-wise.

Martin's 2004 season was absolutely one for the ages.

Unfortunately, I believe his 457 touches that year will prove to have broken him.

With respect to the OP, I don't see any more 1000 yard seasons left for Curtis Martin.

I think last year's production (850 yards) is a fair ceiling for him, with much downside.

Sadly, it wouldn't surprise me if he never plays another down.

Until that last sentence, good post.... then you went off the deep end. There is a chance, a VERY small chance he doesn't start for the Jets this year. Martin used to insist on getting a lot of carries, even in the preseason, and Herm Edwards caved in. Martin won't get near the touches he used to, but 200 carries is still very possible, even probable, barring injury. 1000 yards.... I seriously doubt, but 800 and 5 to 6 TD's sounds about right to me. Houston could hawk third and shorts, along with inside the five rushes. I think both Blaylock and Washington will share third down duty, and get some carries as well.

RBBC with Martin getting a bit over 50% of the touches.

 

[Z-Dog]

Assume the Jets go from 384 carries to a more balanced 465 (in line with the middle of the pack). How many carries can Martin really get in that crowded backfield? I don't think he can do better than 250 carries. That would leave 215 carries to split between QB, FB, and backups. Martin could conceivably run for about 1100 yards on those numbers.

The floor for Martin isn't too low eitehr. Unless you really don't think he'll be healthy, it's hard to imagine Martin running for less that 180 carries, leaving 285 carries for all the other backs. On 180 carries, he could well average five yards/carry and get some nice recieving numbers.

I think he's a great late 5th round pick.

 

[Portis 26]

But where's the upside? Sure, you may get a guy might just scrape 1000 yards if he's lucky, but you're not going to win your league with those kind of numbers. Better, surely, to gamble a 5th-round pick in a young back who could really explode... someone like Frank Gore or DeShaun Foster.

 

[Sopranos]

But where's the upside? Sure, you may get a guy might just scrape 1000 yards if he's lucky, but you're not going to win your league with those kind of numbers. Better, surely, to gamble a 5th-round pick in a young back who could really explode... someone like Frank Gore or DeShaun Foster.

But that is like saying you cant win a league with Parker or Droughns as your 2nd or 3rd. Sure you can. You have to make good picks in the 2nd 3rd and 4th. You could have great WR's and win with a lesser RB.

 

[Portis 26]

But that is like saying you cant win a league with Parker or Droughns as your 2nd or 3rd. Sure you can. You have to make good picks in the 2nd 3rd and 4th. You could have great WR's and win with a lesser RB.

Sure, in just the same way that you could have great RBs and win with lesser WRs. But the point is you really should be aiming to maximise your explosiveness at each position and a carthorse rather than a thoroughbred isn't going to do that.

 

[Z-Dog]

Maximize explosiveness comes with costs. Deshaun Foster is less talented and more injury-prone than Curtis Martin. Sure, his upside is a bit higher, but his expected return may be lower. I don't think you need to maximize explosiveness with every pick. That's a huge mistake that usually leaves you with a thin roster full of reaches.

 

[Portis 26]

I don't think you need to maximize explosiveness with every pick. That's a huge mistake that usually leaves you with a thin roster full of reaches.

I agree, up to a point. I'd rather have carthorse figures like Rod Smith at WR and take a chance on a bunch of RBs than a carthorse like C-Mart and RB and take a chance on bunch of WRs.But the factor which increases your chance of striking the jackpot with each gamble is of course judgement, and I'd like to think that's what makes a difference. If you're just taking a chance of random potshots, of course you're going to end with a roster full of reaches. If you're take chances on guys you've been keeping an eye on, who are going to have an opportunity, whom you know about and like their chances then, well then you're laying the foundations of success.

 

[MLBrandow]

I just feel like having a 20-25 carry back, even if he's averaging 3.3ypc is a good value in the 5th round. Even if you only start him two or three games, you've got your worth out of him IMO.

I suppose what we should really be doing is weighing him versus:

a) other RBs taken

b) ADP for players within 1 round of his.

Then we can really decide his value.

These are stats that I don't have though, if anyone else does?

 

[nygiants56]

I don't know, he averaged 3.3 YPC last season and only had one game over 100 yds (yes, I know he only played in 12 games). Sure, he could be a good value if he drops beyond the 7th or 8th round, but I still think he's a reach in the 5th, and I don't see him rushing for 1200 yds. Martin's had a tremendous career and he seems like a good guy, so I've always been a fan, but I don't see him putting up big numbers this year.

two words:brooks bollinger.

patrick ramsey is no joe montana, but he'll keep defenses back on their heels more than brooks bollinger did..

c-mart could be a huge sleeper candidate..

 

[AC Express]

I took him in the 8th round of a Dynasty league draft, I think he is a great bye week or spot starter if your #1 or #2 Running Back goes down. Maybe even a Flex Starter if the match up is in his favor.

 

[David Yudkin]

There have been 132 seasons by RB that were 33 or older since 1970 (Martin's current age). There were 3 Top 10 seasons by RB 33 or older: John Riggins in 1983 (ranked 3rd) and 1984 (ranked 7th) and Marcus Allen in 1993 (ranked 5th). Riggins was aided by a 24 TD season--something I doubt Martin will accomplish in 2006. IIRC, there were 5 other Top 20 seasons by RB 33 or older.

IMO, part of those numbers are a bit skewed, as RB totals and workload were nowhere near what they are today. So today's older RBs will have a tougher time competing with other RB that get the ball a ton.

If Martin starts splitting time, his fantasy value should and will take a hit. He probably will not get a ton of receptions, and the Jets' offense may not get him a lot of red zone carries. Factoring all that together, I have a tough time seeing Martin with upside in the Top 20. Een in 2003 he had a tough time cracked the Top 20 (ranked 18th( but had 365 touches.

If people want to add him for RB depth if he falls several rounds, great. But I would be hesitant to head into a season planning on or needing to start him as a RB2.

Maybe Martin can buck the trend of older RBs dropping off a lot as they age, but I'm not sure I would want to make the investment to find out.

 

[The Finist]

This would be a good time for a piece of toast emoticon.

maybe a fork sticking out of the side of a smiley's head.not that CuMar deserves it.

 

[Z-Dog]

I don't think you need to maximize explosiveness with every pick. That's a huge mistake that usually leaves you with a thin roster full of reaches.

I agree, up to a point. I'd rather have carthorse figures like Rod Smith at WR and take a chance on a bunch of RBs than a carthorse like C-Mart and RB and take a chance on bunch of WRs.But the factor which increases your chance of striking the jackpot with each gamble is of course judgement, and I'd like to think that's what makes a difference. If you're just taking a chance of random potshots, of course you're going to end with a roster full of reaches. If you're take chances on guys you've been keeping an eye on, who are going to have an opportunity, whom you know about and like their chances then, well then you're laying the foundations of success.

It depends on your strategy. I think that Martin in the 5th is a great counterbalance to, say Reggie Bush in the 2nd, or Julius Jones. Just as obviously though, you will need to win some gambles to win your league. Curtis Martin is not likely to get 1500 yards, 12 TDs and lead your team to the superbowl. Not every win has to be that big though. Chris Brown was a big help to my team two years ago. I think also that I naturally think about dynasty as much as redraft. In a dynasty league, Martin is a classic undervalue b/c of his age and situation, but if you look at it more closely, you find that Martin is EXTREMELY hard to knock out of a game, and, for an older back, is a pretty fantastic gamble.