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where will CJ play in 2014?Jets sign him (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bri
- Start date
Banger
Footballguy
Likewise, this is just an attempt at clarification, not argument. There are a few different posters going back and forth, so it can be confusing.
Most of my comments are concerning his performance relative to where he was drafted. I didn't say it has predictive value going forward, I'm just countering other posters who have said that he has been a great value when that pretty clearly hasn't been the case recently. Absolutely there are other factors at play, like the team, injuries, etc., but that doesn't change the reality that he has under performed expectations 2 out of the last 3 years, even if it does possibly explain why. That would be much more relevant if I were saying "he sucks", which I'm not.
I'm not predicting that he is going to disappoint next year at all, we don't even know where he's going to be drafted yet. I may end up agreeing that he represents good value this year, but the proof will be in the pudding- if he finishes higher than his ADP, he'll have been a good value, if not, he won't. For some reason we have people arguing the opposite in this thread. My guess is that their anecdotal stories of hearing people bash Johnson have led them to believe his ADP has been a lot lower than it has been.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
people should also factor in with Ivory's 2 mil salary that he cost them a draft pick (4th rder I think). But hes better as a COP back IMO than a starter or 50% load guy. Even in his declining stage CJ is better than Ivory and CJ plays hurt, CJ is going to see majority of snaps.
Nucker101
Footballguy
Not sure if this has already mentioned but Vick has rarely any clue about where a blitz is coming from.
Greene is better than Ivory. He has two thousand yard seasons and Ivory doesn't have any.
I can't think of a WR or RB that was made to be a novelty act and has done well. That's my concern with McCluster. Love the speed and quickness and how well he can catch and that he can play WR and....he's still going to be brutal for FF. I hope he can find a role in TEN and/or a regular set number of touches we can bank on.
The link isn't wrong it is just averaging drafts from MFL. You can argue whether or not that data is "good" or not but it is certainly valid data points and that can be filtered in about as many ways as you could want. I definitely find it valuable but certainly understand if you find other site data to be better for that sort of thing.That link is wrong. His ADP was no where near that. Here's a more reliable one.http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2012&teams=12&pos=rbIs this the bizarro thread? Per the link provided his ADP last year was RB 12.Last year he was an unbelievable value. His ADP was RB25. His finish in PPG was RB12.Absolutely not- he finished well behind his ADP 2 years ago. Last year he finished slightly higher, which isn't "great" value, it's good.Do you guys really not know this?Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
He has a 4.8 average. PFR makes an oops here and averages the averages rather than just simply dividing yards by total carries. Not that I'm saying .2 matters.
I don't like using YPC when RBs don't have many yards. It seems a lot of 3rd down backs have had high numbers and over time I just came to not appreciate ypc if the total is low. I'm not calling Ivory a 3rd down back, it's just how that feeling developed. Two years Ivory didn't get 100 carries and that makes me apprehensive.
Total yards is not close between these two and I don't see Ivory catching up this year and closing that gap.
I would be fine with a wait N see approach or "it's close" or anything other than Ivory is clearly better.
Some Jets fans and/or Ivory fans are not being all that reasonable this offseason and it's odd. To some you'd think he was a 2k yard back and on the level of ADP. That love for Ivory is great, but to discuss actual stats with such people has been difficult.
I have never and will never think 374 yards or 210 yards on the season was a "good job" and embrace a runner. Greene was hurt last year but like I said earlier, I preferred Battle. His stats last year weren't good.
The way I see it, Greene is unexciting and 1000 was like a milestone he reached and his ceiling. I'm not a big fan of his. Ivory seems to be one of the types that people will always say has potential-at some point, the potential is realized and a player has to be given a what you see is what you get mindset for FF. It's fine if that point hasn't been reached for some.
Santonio Holmes was(I don't know that he still is) an exciting player with the capability to explode for big plays. Since he left Pitt, he has roughly 750, 650, 250, and 450 yards. None of that is acceptable IMO for a #1 WR. In fact, I would consider it below average. I feel like the Jets have stockpiled players that could be special and never realize it and am concerned for them for 2014. Kerley is the only one that seems predictable. I figure he'd be a fine 3rd WR. Neither Stephen Hill, nor Cj, nor Ivory have yielded expected weekly results in years past.
In the long quoted post above, absent from that discussion is that you needed to start CJ in FF. If he got (numbers just thrown out for discussion, made up...) 40 yards the week before and 30 before that, were you about to start him for the week he got 150? Obviously my point is about FF, but I do also believe an NFL team needs X amount of production from some players that they can count on.
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msommer
Footballguy
It's possible but I'm more worried about Ivory than I was about Greene/Battle.
I think it is more likely that CJ will be a high end RB2 when all is said and done. Even with the addition of Decker and the hope for improvement from Geno
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I agree that Johnson is looking like a good value this year, but top-10 seems a bit too high IMO. Powell and Ivory combined for only 4 total TDs last year, and while the Jets will be better on offense, I still think it'll be tough for CJ to reach double digit scores -- I expect slightly less touches than last year, slightly greater efficiency, similar total yardage, and maybe 6 - 8 scores. High end RB2 production with a borderline RB2 / RB3 pricetag -- sign me up. His high floor d/t his ridiculous durability makes him appealing also.
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The Man With No Name
Footballguy
ordinary last season because he played with a torn meniscus most of the year
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/jets/post/_/id/40341/training-camp-preview-running-back?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Chris Johnson - RB - Jets
ESPN New York expects the Jets to take a backfield-by-committee approach.
The only one surprised by this take is Chris Johnson, who still seems to be under the assumption he's an every-down workhorse. Running backs coach Anthony Lynn has already stated that Johnson's load will be monitored, an effort to keep a 29-year-old (in September) with 2,014 career touches fresh. Chris Ivory and possibly Bilal Powell will have chances to seize a hot hand, leaving CJ?K with far less volume than he saw in Tennessee.
Related: Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell
Source: ESPN New York Jul 14 - 8:42 AM
Chris Johnson - RB - Jets
ESPN New York expects the Jets to take a backfield-by-committee approach.
The only one surprised by this take is Chris Johnson, who still seems to be under the assumption he's an every-down workhorse. Running backs coach Anthony Lynn has already stated that Johnson's load will be monitored, an effort to keep a 29-year-old (in September) with 2,014 career touches fresh. Chris Ivory and possibly Bilal Powell will have chances to seize a hot hand, leaving CJ?K with far less volume than he saw in Tennessee.
Related: Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell
Source: ESPN New York Jul 14 - 8:42 AM
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CJ likely makes OMG plays in practice and they re-discuss or argue plans for him.
He's got that barry-esque need to have X amount of carries until he breaks one. When he's 10 for 20 yards, yeah Ivory or Powell will seem better or a committee approach will be an option, but when he's 11 for 80 yards it's gotta make them think.
He's a tough back to figure out.
I would assume in spot duty they could set him up to have a favorable matchup if their passing game does well. He can take a screen just as far as a run.
I think everything with CJ can quickly become confusing
He's got that barry-esque need to have X amount of carries until he breaks one. When he's 10 for 20 yards, yeah Ivory or Powell will seem better or a committee approach will be an option, but when he's 11 for 80 yards it's gotta make them think.
He's a tough back to figure out.
I would assume in spot duty they could set him up to have a favorable matchup if their passing game does well. He can take a screen just as far as a run.
I think everything with CJ can quickly become confusing
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
This preseason injury to Ivory reminds me, hey Ivory does tend to get hurt pretty easily.
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ckalltheway
Footballguy
Ill buy that for a dollar in my PPR league.
In PPR, I think he's golden this year in your last flex spot or as your 2 in start 2RB PPR.
40-50 receptions no problem this year. He'll outperform his ADP in PPR.
I think carries are going to go 65 CJ/35 other guys with Ivory getting goaliline.
Ivory's enticing but if he plays a lot he's going to get hurt. But you have to handcuff CJ with him for sure.
If CJ goes down he could have a big year until he gets hurt so youll have to go get Powell if CJ goes down LOL.
In PPR, I think he's golden this year in your last flex spot or as your 2 in start 2RB PPR.
40-50 receptions no problem this year. He'll outperform his ADP in PPR.
I think carries are going to go 65 CJ/35 other guys with Ivory getting goaliline.
Ivory's enticing but if he plays a lot he's going to get hurt. But you have to handcuff CJ with him for sure.
If CJ goes down he could have a big year until he gets hurt so youll have to go get Powell if CJ goes down LOL.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
He's not wrong in wanting more carries, if only because CJ always seemed like the kind of back who needed to get into that rhythm. He still has big play ability, which comes with more carries -- which he won't get with an effective Ivory, and the ability the Jets have to feature carries. This is still one of the better rushing teams this season, in part by splitting the workload.
I have both CJ and Ivory (picked up off waivers after wk 1) as more of a defensive move to keep them off other teams -- either one alone is a risky start, and unless it's against a putrid run D, there likely isn't worth starting both. Perhaps with Geno looking terrible and Decker banged up, the Jets need to rely on the run more, which might revive CJ with the corresponding bump in carries.
I have both CJ and Ivory (picked up off waivers after wk 1) as more of a defensive move to keep them off other teams -- either one alone is a risky start, and unless it's against a putrid run D, there likely isn't worth starting both. Perhaps with Geno looking terrible and Decker banged up, the Jets need to rely on the run more, which might revive CJ with the corresponding bump in carries.
The carry and reception total for CJ is absurd.
His production in the NFL is better than most playing the game now.
The Jets knew what they were getting and that he'd have a slew of carries that were right into the DL and just looked terrible, but there'd be a handful of beautiful runs and the one wow is he fast bolt toward the end zone.
If they wanted a backup to Ivory, they should have signed one. This is a total waste of $ and talent.
CJ has lined up wide several times in his career. A million years ago the Jets did that with both Richie Anderson and Curtis.
If they have a determination to give the ball to Ivory and have a mediocre running game, then they should at least utilize CJ in the passing game. He has plenty of highlights where he takes a screen and goes the distance. 1 or 2 targets to him is so wrong.
I've watched him for years and will be shocked if he doesn't blow up to a reporter after a game soon and this time, this will be the first time I'm gonna agree with him.
His production in the NFL is better than most playing the game now.
The Jets knew what they were getting and that he'd have a slew of carries that were right into the DL and just looked terrible, but there'd be a handful of beautiful runs and the one wow is he fast bolt toward the end zone.
If they wanted a backup to Ivory, they should have signed one. This is a total waste of $ and talent.
CJ has lined up wide several times in his career. A million years ago the Jets did that with both Richie Anderson and Curtis.
If they have a determination to give the ball to Ivory and have a mediocre running game, then they should at least utilize CJ in the passing game. He has plenty of highlights where he takes a screen and goes the distance. 1 or 2 targets to him is so wrong.
I've watched him for years and will be shocked if he doesn't blow up to a reporter after a game soon and this time, this will be the first time I'm gonna agree with him.
Cut him after his Monday Nite game. That spot has been re-cut several times and eventually turned out to be Turbin. He's one of those guys who I refuse to have on a roster. Good enough to tempt you to start him but then disappoints in a huge way. Two injuries away from a majority of the carries.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
It's hard to feel sorry for Johnson when he chose to sign with the Jets, a team with no clue offensively.
