where will CJ play in 2014?Jets sign him (1 Viewer)

[Holy Schneikes]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

Seems like a lot of these "good landing spot for him" quotes are pretty much assuming that Ivory rolls over and plays dead or the coaches decide to clearly go against a player they traded for last year.

You can probably rule out a significant rb draft pick being used now but what if it actually goes just as the Jets have attempted to go for the past 5-6 years and they use these guys evenly? Chris Johnson with 9-13 carries a week? You will need to be holding your breath each week that he hits a homerun somewhere, otherwise you will end up with a lot of 36-52 yard days with maybe a catch somewhere.

I guess I'm not as optimistic. I see this as just another fantasy RB situation that is fading out and the player will be overdrafted due to name (unless Ivory gets hurt and clears the way for Johnson, but that scenario is present in any NFL town).

I'm not assuming that at all. I think Johnson is better, but there is certainly a chance that he doesn't dominate carries. My thinking is more along the lines of "There weren't a lot of better options.". There is a chance for CJ to be a very good fantasy assent in NY. There is no guarantee, but that's true most of the time.

Chris Ivory is heading into his 5th year in the league this year, and has about 300 fewer total yards in his CAREER than Johnson had in 2009. He's making less than half of the salary per year the team just signed Johnson for. And a good chunk of that is due in 2015 when he could very easily be cut. Basically, he is signed to backup money, not starter money.

I'm not saying Ivory can't contribute, or that he sucks. I'm saying the team made the investment in Johnson for a reason. They plan to use him a lot. THEY feel he is a better back than Ivory at this point. Maybe they are wrong, who knows. But it's fairly obvious the PLAN is to feature Johnson until he proves he can't be the difference maker he once was.

 

[Bri]

I really think this news deserves a new thread or modified thread title.

changed it

 

[Bri]

It reads like he got about half of what he was due in 2014. Playing in NY though, he could make a ton of $ in advertising sponsorship.

Can the Jets linemen get out and run? Or are they grinders? I would guess most of his long runs were broke just outside the right side of the line; would also guess most screens went there. IMO that's his spot. How fast is the Jets RT? RG? Do they have a speedy TE? It's more difficult than it might seem to some to get a FB out there in front of him.

Jets fans gotta realize he has a ton of tiny runs before he breaks one and there's some frustration in an "oh cmon already" type feel.

 

[Bri]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

Seems like a lot of these "good landing spot for him" quotes are pretty much assuming that Ivory rolls over and plays dead or the coaches decide to clearly go against a player they traded for last year.

You can probably rule out a significant rb draft pick being used now but what if it actually goes just as the Jets have attempted to go for the past 5-6 years and they use these guys evenly? Chris Johnson with 9-13 carries a week? You will need to be holding your breath each week that he hits a homerun somewhere, otherwise you will end up with a lot of 36-52 yard days with maybe a catch somewhere.

I guess I'm not as optimistic. I see this as just another fantasy RB situation that is fading out and the player will be overdrafted due to name (unless Ivory gets hurt and clears the way for Johnson, but that scenario is present in any NFL town).

Ivory fans got their chance,as did he, last year. After seeing his play, the Jets decided to go out and sign a better runner. His fans need to admit he lost some luster and this wasn't a signing that reflects favorably upon him being a workhorse RB.

I don't think this is necessarily the Saints part two. I think CJ is a very difficult RB to manage play-wise. As I've stated many times, there's 20ish runs into a brick wall and then he breaks one. It'd be nice if they could rush Ivory 20 times then figure CJ is due so he just takes off. It doesn't work that way though; it's not something you can plan for. I expect Ivory fans to be extremely frustrated in 2014 always wanting more while CJ has a one yard run time and again.

Above someone projected 1500 yards-maybe. It could be 500 though. His entire production is based upon how many long runs you think he can pull off. Again, he has become the poor short yardage runner everyone incorrectly said he was during his best years.

 

[zamboni]

As a Jets fan, I really like the signing. Seems like a very good complementary fit of styles between CJ and Ivory.

This is a team that likes to run the ball A LOT, so there will be plenty of carries to go around. If I had to guess, at the beginning it will be a 60/40 split in favor of Johnson, perhaps going more in favor of CJ if he shows that he hasn't lost too much. The between the tackles stuff will go to Ivory, and CJ will be the outside the tackles slasher and pass -catching back. Remember that Ivory has had injury issues, so I'm sure they want to somewhat limit his touches to keep him healthy.

Hard not to like this move from a philosophy or financial standpoint.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ivory fans got their chance,as did he, last year. After seeing his play, the Jets decided to go out and sign a better runner.

I posted this in the Jets' thread but it's applicable here as well:

Without disagreeing with your assessment on the two players, the fact the Jets paid Johnson well doesn't mean as much as you think. They desperatly needed playmakers and also needed RB depth - they have $32MM in cap space available so "overpaying" Johnson by a bit (based on the current landscape) was a luxury they could afford in order to ensure getting him to sign.

I'm not sure which back is "better" because they are both so different - which is why I love the combo. Opposing defenses will need to prepare for two very different styles and with Ivory punding them and wearing them out, it will make better opportunities for CJ to break some big plays.

I think Johnson is probably the better overall talent (a few years ago there'd be no question), but I do think this will be a pretty even timeshare based on the two very different skill sets.

 

[Sweet Love]

Ivory fans got their chance,as did he, last year. After seeing his play, the Jets decided to go out and sign a better runner.

I posted this in the Jets' thread but it's applicable here as well:

Without disagreeing with your assessment on the two players, the fact the Jets paid Johnson well doesn't mean as much as you think. They desperatly needed playmakers and also needed RB depth - they have $32MM in cap space available so "overpaying" Johnson by a bit (based on the current landscape) was a luxury they could afford in order to ensure getting him to sign.

I'm not sure which back is "better" because they are both so different - which is why I love the combo. Opposing defenses will need to prepare for two very different styles and with Ivory punding them and wearing them out, it will make better opportunities for CJ to break some big plays.

I think Johnson is probably the better overall talent (a few years ago there'd be no question), but I do think this will be a pretty even timeshare based on the two very different skill sets.

Very well put...will be interesting to see how this effects Ivory's ADP from a fantasy perspective. I think people are shoveling dirt on him too soon...they traded a 4th rounder for him last year and while he did not "light it up", he certainly did well (just too few TDs or else this would not be a debate).

 

[biju]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

Seems like a lot of these "good landing spot for him" quotes are pretty much assuming that Ivory rolls over and plays dead or the coaches decide to clearly go against a player they traded for last year.

You can probably rule out a significant rb draft pick being used now but what if it actually goes just as the Jets have attempted to go for the past 5-6 years and they use these guys evenly? Chris Johnson with 9-13 carries a week? You will need to be holding your breath each week that he hits a homerun somewhere, otherwise you will end up with a lot of 36-52 yard days with maybe a catch somewhere.

I guess I'm not as optimistic. I see this as just another fantasy RB situation that is fading out and the player will be overdrafted due to name (unless Ivory gets hurt and clears the way for Johnson, but that scenario is present in any NFL town).

I'm not assuming that at all. I think Johnson is better, but there is certainly a chance that he doesn't dominate carries. My thinking is more along the lines of "There weren't a lot of better options.". There is a chance for CJ to be a very good fantasy assent in NY. There is no guarantee, but that's true most of the time.

Chris Ivory is heading into his 5th year in the league this year, and has about 300 fewer total yards in his CAREER than Johnson had in 2009. He's making less than half of the salary per year the team just signed Johnson for. And a good chunk of that is due in 2015 when he could very easily be cut. Basically, he is signed to backup money, not starter money.

I'm not saying Ivory can't contribute, or that he sucks. I'm saying the team made the investment in Johnson for a reason. They plan to use him a lot. THEY feel he is a better back than Ivory at this point. Maybe they are wrong, who knows. But it's fairly obvious the PLAN is to feature Johnson until he proves he can't be the difference maker he once was.

People love to cling to that 2009 yardage. That was 5 years ago and he is no longer that player. We're another 2-3 years to this being the same as people clamoring for fans to sign Eric Dickerson because he once had a 2k+ season. Chris Johnson will not get close to 2,000 yards rushing ever again for the rest of his life.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

We've gone back and forth on Ivory and Powell enough and just disagree, which is fine.

Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

Re: McCluster, the Titans gave him a pretty decent chunk of money also, and while he's not really a RB at all, he is really dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he's going to have a decent year as a poor man's Sproles / Woodhead / Vereen type PPR RB3 or flex play.

 

[zamboni]

Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

I don't think the relative financials mean much. Last year, teams seemed to be more willing to pay up for RBs, and there was less supply out there IIRC. Fast forward to this year, and from the various RB contracts signed this offseason, RBs are viewed as even more of a commodity. Plus a lot more supply this year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

We've gone back and forth on Ivory and Powell enough and just disagree, which is fine.

Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

Re: McCluster, the Titans gave him a pretty decent chunk of money also, and while he's not really a RB at all, he is really dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he's going to have a decent year as a poor man's Sproles / Woodhead / Vereen type PPR RB3 or flex play.

Maybe I'm hazy - but I thought Ivory and Greene's contract were pretty similar - and to be honest they are pretty similar talent levels. I think Greene is probably a little better than the concensus/group think gives him credit for. He's solid - and it's not like Ivory is anything special.

I'm not sure McCluster even gets signed if CJ was going to be in the Titans' plans though - since CJ could handle that role better than McCluster.

I just think at best it was a "wash" as far as the competition goes - but I'd favor Ivory/Powell over Green/McCluster. Powell is a pretty solid all around back - kind of a poor man's Pierre Thomas.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Ivory fans got their chance,as did he, last year. After seeing his play, the Jets decided to go out and sign a better runner.

I posted this in the Jets' thread but it's applicable here as well:

Without disagreeing with your assessment on the two players, the fact the Jets paid Johnson well doesn't mean as much as you think. They desperatly needed playmakers and also needed RB depth - they have $32MM in cap space available so "overpaying" Johnson by a bit (based on the current landscape) was a luxury they could afford in order to ensure getting him to sign.

I'm not sure which back is "better" because they are both so different - which is why I love the combo. Opposing defenses will need to prepare for two very different styles and with Ivory punding them and wearing them out, it will make better opportunities for CJ to break some big plays.

I think Johnson is probably the better overall talent (a few years ago there'd be no question), but I do think this will be a pretty even timeshare based on the two very different skill sets.

Very well put...will be interesting to see how this effects Ivory's ADP from a fantasy perspective. I think people are shoveling dirt on him too soon...they traded a 4th rounder for him last year and while he did not "light it up", he certainly did well (just too few TDs or else this would not be a debate).

Ivory was 56th at RB last year. 56th! And regardless of what anyone thinks of Chris Johnson as a player at this point, his contract alone makes him a bigger threat to Ivory's workload than Bilal Powell was last year. It's reasonable to disagree on Ivory's value as an NFL player, his talent level, his role vs Johnson, etc. but for FF purposes, Chris Ivory is done for 2014 barring an injury to Johnson.ETA: 56th in PPG.

 

[humpback]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

We've gone back and forth on Ivory and Powell enough and just disagree, which is fine.

Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

Re: McCluster, the Titans gave him a pretty decent chunk of money also, and while he's not really a RB at all, he is really dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he's going to have a decent year as a poor man's Sproles / Woodhead / Vereen type PPR RB3 or flex play.

Not sure why that would mean much to begin with, but you could argue that they invested less overall when you factor in the 4th round pick the Jets gave up for Ivory (which also changes the financial dynamics because he was under contract when they traded for him). Plus you're leaving out that Tenn just cut Johnson without even asking him to restructure, and it's already been said but McCluster was brought in to replace Johnson so he most likely wouldn't have been competing with him if he had stayed. They essentially preferred McCluster over Johnson, which also says something.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

We've gone back and forth on Ivory and Powell enough and just disagree, which is fine.Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

Re: McCluster, the Titans gave him a pretty decent chunk of money also, and while he's not really a RB at all, he is really dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he's going to have a decent year as a poor man's Sproles / Woodhead / Vereen type PPR RB3 or flex play.

Not sure why that would mean much to begin with, but you could argue that they invested less overall when you factor in the 4th round pick the Jets gave up for Ivory (which also changes the financial dynamics because he was under contract when they traded for him). Plus you're leaving out that Tenn just cut Johnson without even asking him to restructure, and it's already been said but McCluster was brought in to replace Johnson so he most likely wouldn't have been competing with him if he had stayed. They essentially preferred McCluster over Johnson, which also says something.

Yeah, that's a pretty huge mis-reading of the situation in Tennessee with Chris Johnson IMO. He was very vocal about wanting out and not taking a pay cut to stay the entire time. The fact that he draw any trade interest whatsoever even on that ridiculously bloated contract is what's telling here, as is the fact that he got more money than every other UFA RB despite hitting the market at it's slowest. To suggest that the Titans preferred McCluster straight up as a player over Johnson is utterly ridiculous -- this was clearly about money. Chris Johnson >>> Dexter McCluster, and I like McCluster and have never been a fan of Johnson relatively speaking.

 

[Zaphod]

Outside of Denver, that was the best landing sport for him IMO. He'll either be considerably better than Ivory and get the Lion's hare of carries or he won't. But if he doesn't, it wouldn't have gone better anywhere else, it will because he doesn't "have it". We'll just have to see what happens. Will be really interesting to see the financials.

Seems like a lot of these "good landing spot for him" quotes are pretty much assuming that Ivory rolls over and plays dead or the coaches decide to clearly go against a player they traded for last year.

You can probably rule out a significant rb draft pick being used now but what if it actually goes just as the Jets have attempted to go for the past 5-6 years and they use these guys evenly? Chris Johnson with 9-13 carries a week? You will need to be holding your breath each week that he hits a homerun somewhere, otherwise you will end up with a lot of 36-52 yard days with maybe a catch somewhere.

I guess I'm not as optimistic. I see this as just another fantasy RB situation that is fading out and the player will be overdrafted due to name (unless Ivory gets hurt and clears the way for Johnson, but that scenario is present in any NFL town).

I'm not assuming that at all. I think Johnson is better, but there is certainly a chance that he doesn't dominate carries. My thinking is more along the lines of "There weren't a lot of better options.". There is a chance for CJ to be a very good fantasy assent in NY. There is no guarantee, but that's true most of the time.

Chris Ivory is heading into his 5th year in the league this year, and has about 300 fewer total yards in his CAREER than Johnson had in 2009. He's making less than half of the salary per year the team just signed Johnson for. And a good chunk of that is due in 2015 when he could very easily be cut. Basically, he is signed to backup money, not starter money.

I'm not saying Ivory can't contribute, or that he sucks. I'm saying the team made the investment in Johnson for a reason. They plan to use him a lot. THEY feel he is a better back than Ivory at this point. Maybe they are wrong, who knows. But it's fairly obvious the PLAN is to feature Johnson until he proves he can't be the difference maker he once was.

People love to cling to that 2009 yardage. That was 5 years ago and he is no longer that player. We're another 2-3 years to this being the same as people clamoring for fans to sign Eric Dickerson because he once had a 2k+ season. Chris Johnson will not get close to 2,000 yards rushing ever again for the rest of his life.

Wow, way to cherry pick one sentence fragment in the entire post and completely miss the point.

I like the signing and think that this was one of the better landing spots realistically available for CJ. I do think he will be given the lion's share of the carries from the start and then they will settle on a rotation once it becomes apparent if he can recapture some of his earlier success, or if last year was a precursor to the end.

He won't ever be in TEN again, seeing that percentage of carries. However, if he is healthy and NY is committed to using him in space and game planning to his strengths, I think he can still represent good value. Both for the Jets as a team and for FF.

 

[humpback]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

We've gone back and forth on Ivory and Powell enough and just disagree, which is fine.Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

Re: McCluster, the Titans gave him a pretty decent chunk of money also, and while he's not really a RB at all, he is really dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he's going to have a decent year as a poor man's Sproles / Woodhead / Vereen type PPR RB3 or flex play.

Not sure why that would mean much to begin with, but you could argue that they invested less overall when you factor in the 4th round pick the Jets gave up for Ivory (which also changes the financial dynamics because he was under contract when they traded for him). Plus you're leaving out that Tenn just cut Johnson without even asking him to restructure, and it's already been said but McCluster was brought in to replace Johnson so he most likely wouldn't have been competing with him if he had stayed. They essentially preferred McCluster over Johnson, which also says something.

Yeah, that's a pretty huge mis-reading of the situation in Tennessee with Chris Johnson IMO. He was very vocal about wanting out and not taking a pay cut to stay the entire time. The fact that he draw any trade interest whatsoever even on that ridiculously bloated contract is what's telling here, as is the fact that he got more money than every other UFA RB despite hitting the market at it's slowest. To suggest that the Titans preferred McCluster straight up as a player over Johnson is utterly ridiculous -- this was clearly about money. Chris Johnson >>> Dexter McCluster, and I like McCluster and have never been a fan of Johnson relatively speaking.

Sorry, but you're clearly the one mis-reading things. He didn't want out until they wanted him out, and we don't know how serious any trade interest was, but none of that came until he said publicly that he would agree to a cut to facilitate a trade. He then said he had all this interest and wanted to sign right away, which turned into one visit and a signing more than a week later.

McCluster got a similar contract to Johnson actually, so once again you're just making stuff up. In any event, the point is that he almost certainly wouldn't have been on the team with Johnson so he wouldn't have been competing with him, which you continue to ignore, along with the draft pick for Ivory, or the O-line rankings, anything else that doesn't fit your narrative. Almost everything you've said is the opposite of reality.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

We've gone back and forth on Ivory and Powell enough and just disagree, which is fine.Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

Re: McCluster, the Titans gave him a pretty decent chunk of money also, and while he's not really a RB at all, he is really dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he's going to have a decent year as a poor man's Sproles / Woodhead / Vereen type PPR RB3 or flex play.

Not sure why that would mean much to begin with, but you could argue that they invested less overall when you factor in the 4th round pick the Jets gave up for Ivory (which also changes the financial dynamics because he was under contract when they traded for him). Plus you're leaving out that Tenn just cut Johnson without even asking him to restructure, and it's already been said but McCluster was brought in to replace Johnson so he most likely wouldn't have been competing with him if he had stayed. They essentially preferred McCluster over Johnson, which also says something.

Yeah, that's a pretty huge mis-reading of the situation in Tennessee with Chris Johnson IMO. He was very vocal about wanting out and not taking a pay cut to stay the entire time. The fact that he draw any trade interest whatsoever even on that ridiculously bloated contract is what's telling here, as is the fact that he got more money than every other UFA RB despite hitting the market at it's slowest. To suggest that the Titans preferred McCluster straight up as a player over Johnson is utterly ridiculous -- this was clearly about money. Chris Johnson >>> Dexter McCluster, and I like McCluster and have never been a fan of Johnson relatively speaking.

Sorry, but you're clearly the one mis-reading things. He didn't want out until they wanted him out, and we don't know how serious any trade interest was, but none of that came until he said publicly that he would agree to a cut to facilitate a trade. He then said he had all this interest and wanted to sign right away, which turned into one visit and a signing more than a week later.McCluster got a similar contract to Johnson actually, so once again you're just making stuff up. In any event, the point is that he almost certainly wouldn't have been on the team with Johnson so he wouldn't have been competing with him, which you continue to ignore, along with the draft pick for Ivory, or the O-line rankings, anything else that doesn't fit your narrative. Almost everything you've said is the opposite of reality.

Yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree here I guess. I'm honestly astounded, though, that anyone would believe that if Johnson had been willing to renegotiate down to the reasonable deal he got from the Jets the Titans would still have sent him packing because they'd rather have Dexter McCluster.

 

[bostonfred]

Its easy to say his 2000 yard season won't happen again, but the backlash since then is ridiculous. He has played on some crappy titans teams. His qb has been hurt pretty much every year. The receivers sucked. The offensive line sucked until last year, and johnson had a torn meniscus last year, so he couldn't take full advantage. He has been a great player playing poorly for a bad team.

But when you hear people calling him cj.5k, or cj9k, its just silly. Everyone knows the stat - 6 years in the league, 6 1000 yard seasons. But there are some more interesting stats. He hasn't had fewer than 1400 total yards, with 36 or more receptions per year. His 2000 yard season was five years ago, but he has 32 tds in his last four seasons - including ten last year. He has been a weak rb1/fantastic rb2 every year.

And now this year, he has a nearly ideal situation. He has ivory to mash defenses early, which should significantly increase his ypc. Johnson isn't the back you want wearing down defenses on first down, or running on third and one, or running on the goal line. He's the guy you want running from the 9 yard line, or running on second and 6. In tennesse, he was often both. Now he has ivory to take the carries which were worst for his ypc. And he will be used in situations where vick is a threat to run, too, which makes it very difficult for defenses to key on johnson.

His upside is capped, somewhat, by the fact he's an unlikely goal line threat, and that he has running qbs who can take some of the mid range short yardage carries. And it seems unlikely for him to threaten for 2000 total yards again. But I think he will excel in new york, and put up yet another 1400+ total yard season. That makes him an outstanding rb2 choice.

 

[humpback]

. Shonn Greene and McCluster are more of a threat than Ivory and Powell,

Uh, no.

We've gone back and forth on Ivory and Powell enough and just disagree, which is fine.Re: Greene, Ivory is pretty clearly a better runner than Greene, but the Titans invested significantly more money in Greene than the Jets did in Ivory, and IMO that means something. Greene is also probably more likely to stay healthy all year.

Re: McCluster, the Titans gave him a pretty decent chunk of money also, and while he's not really a RB at all, he is really dynamic as a receiver out of the backfield. I think he's going to have a decent year as a poor man's Sproles / Woodhead / Vereen type PPR RB3 or flex play.

Not sure why that would mean much to begin with, but you could argue that they invested less overall when you factor in the 4th round pick the Jets gave up for Ivory (which also changes the financial dynamics because he was under contract when they traded for him). Plus you're leaving out that Tenn just cut Johnson without even asking him to restructure, and it's already been said but McCluster was brought in to replace Johnson so he most likely wouldn't have been competing with him if he had stayed. They essentially preferred McCluster over Johnson, which also says something.

Yeah, that's a pretty huge mis-reading of the situation in Tennessee with Chris Johnson IMO. He was very vocal about wanting out and not taking a pay cut to stay the entire time. The fact that he draw any trade interest whatsoever even on that ridiculously bloated contract is what's telling here, as is the fact that he got more money than every other UFA RB despite hitting the market at it's slowest. To suggest that the Titans preferred McCluster straight up as a player over Johnson is utterly ridiculous -- this was clearly about money. Chris Johnson >>> Dexter McCluster, and I like McCluster and have never been a fan of Johnson relatively speaking.

Sorry, but you're clearly the one mis-reading things. He didn't want out until they wanted him out, and we don't know how serious any trade interest was, but none of that came until he said publicly that he would agree to a cut to facilitate a trade. He then said he had all this interest and wanted to sign right away, which turned into one visit and a signing more than a week later.McCluster got a similar contract to Johnson actually, so once again you're just making stuff up. In any event, the point is that he almost certainly wouldn't have been on the team with Johnson so he wouldn't have been competing with him, which you continue to ignore, along with the draft pick for Ivory, or the O-line rankings, anything else that doesn't fit your narrative. Almost everything you've said is the opposite of reality.

Yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree here I guess. I'm honestly astounded, though, that anyone would believe that if Johnson had been willing to renegotiate down to the reasonable deal he got from the Jets the Titans would still have sent him packing because they'd rather have Dexter McCluster.

Again, you're ignoring all of the other things I said, as well as the entire point of the McCluster conversation- it's very unlikely that he would have been on the team if they would have kept Chris Johnson, so using Greene and McCluster as "competition" for Johnson probably isn't accurate (not to mention that's still less competition than Ivory and Powell, IMO).

Also, if it was clearly only about money, why wouldn't they have even approached him about restructuring? They were obviously willing to spend a certain amount for McCluster, why not offer that same deal to him first? I know he said he wouldn't take less (as a negotiating tactic), but it's still worth a shot if they really wanted to keep him at a lower price, no?

 

[Eminence]

Its easy to say his 2000 yard season won't happen again, but the backlash since then is ridiculous. He has played on some crappy titans teams. His qb has been hurt pretty much every year. The receivers sucked. The offensive line sucked until last year, and johnson had a torn meniscus last year, so he couldn't take full advantage. He has been a great player playing poorly for a bad team.

But when you hear people calling him cj.5k, or cj9k, its just silly. Everyone knows the stat - 6 years in the league, 6 1000 yard seasons. But there are some more interesting stats. He hasn't had fewer than 1400 total yards, with 36 or more receptions per year. His 2000 yard season was five years ago, but he has 32 tds in his last four seasons - including ten last year. He has been a weak rb1/fantastic rb2 every year.

And now this year, he has a nearly ideal situation. He has ivory to mash defenses early, which should significantly increase his ypc. Johnson isn't the back you want wearing down defenses on first down, or running on third and one, or running on the goal line. He's the guy you want running from the 9 yard line, or running on second and 6. In tennesse, he was often both. Now he has ivory to take the carries which were worst for his ypc. And he will be used in situations where vick is a threat to run, too, which makes it very difficult for defenses to key on johnson.

His upside is capped, somewhat, by the fact he's an unlikely goal line threat, and that he has running qbs who can take some of the mid range short yardage carries. And it seems unlikely for him to threaten for 2000 total yards again. But I think he will excel in new york, and put up yet another 1400+ total yard season. That makes him an outstanding rb2 choice.

Yeah, there's a stigma to him but I'm buying.

 

[Banger]

Its easy to say his 2000 yard season won't happen again, but the backlash since then is ridiculous. He has played on some crappy titans teams. His qb has been hurt pretty much every year. The receivers sucked. The offensive line sucked until last year, and johnson had a torn meniscus last year, so he couldn't take full advantage. He has been a great player playing poorly for a bad team.

But when you hear people calling him cj.5k, or cj9k, its just silly. Everyone knows the stat - 6 years in the league, 6 1000 yard seasons. But there are some more interesting stats. He hasn't had fewer than 1400 total yards, with 36 or more receptions per year. His 2000 yard season was five years ago, but he has 32 tds in his last four seasons - including ten last year. He has been a weak rb1/fantastic rb2 every year.

And now this year, he has a nearly ideal situation. He has ivory to mash defenses early, which should significantly increase his ypc. Johnson isn't the back you want wearing down defenses on first down, or running on third and one, or running on the goal line. He's the guy you want running from the 9 yard line, or running on second and 6. In tennesse, he was often both. Now he has ivory to take the carries which were worst for his ypc. And he will be used in situations where vick is a threat to run, too, which makes it very difficult for defenses to key on johnson.

His upside is capped, somewhat, by the fact he's an unlikely goal line threat, and that he has running qbs who can take some of the mid range short yardage carries. And it seems unlikely for him to threaten for 2000 total yards again. But I think he will excel in new york, and put up yet another 1400+ total yard season. That makes him an outstanding rb2 choice.

Great post. In his 6 years he's finished 11, 1, 5, 16, 12 and 9 and to listen people talk about him you'd think that he put up one good year and been a complete bust every year since. I should just shut up and not try to show people why they are wrong and be ecstatic that I get him for RB24.

He's clearly a poster child where FF emotion (being burned) and the actual players personality come into play as opposed to looking at the numbers in a vaccum.

 

[Todem]

Yeah it's pretty amazing the hate he gets. Again....great landing spot and he will outperform his percieved value this year.

 

[humpback]

Its easy to say his 2000 yard season won't happen again, but the backlash since then is ridiculous. He has played on some crappy titans teams. His qb has been hurt pretty much every year. The receivers sucked. The offensive line sucked until last year, and johnson had a torn meniscus last year, so he couldn't take full advantage. He has been a great player playing poorly for a bad team.

But when you hear people calling him cj.5k, or cj9k, its just silly. Everyone knows the stat - 6 years in the league, 6 1000 yard seasons. But there are some more interesting stats. He hasn't had fewer than 1400 total yards, with 36 or more receptions per year. His 2000 yard season was five years ago, but he has 32 tds in his last four seasons - including ten last year. He has been a weak rb1/fantastic rb2 every year.

And now this year, he has a nearly ideal situation. He has ivory to mash defenses early, which should significantly increase his ypc. Johnson isn't the back you want wearing down defenses on first down, or running on third and one, or running on the goal line. He's the guy you want running from the 9 yard line, or running on second and 6. In tennesse, he was often both. Now he has ivory to take the carries which were worst for his ypc. And he will be used in situations where vick is a threat to run, too, which makes it very difficult for defenses to key on johnson.

His upside is capped, somewhat, by the fact he's an unlikely goal line threat, and that he has running qbs who can take some of the mid range short yardage carries. And it seems unlikely for him to threaten for 2000 total yards again. But I think he will excel in new york, and put up yet another 1400+ total yard season. That makes him an outstanding rb2 choice.

Great post. In his 6 years he's finished 11, 1, 5, 16, 12 and 9 and to listen people talk about him you'd think that he put up one good year and been a complete bust every year since. I should just shut up and not try to show people why they are wrong and be ecstatic that I get him for RB24.

He's clearly a poster child where FF emotion (being burned) and the actual players personality come into play as opposed to looking at the numbers in a vaccum.

We don't play FF in a vacuum though, so why would you look at the numbers that way? If you look at PPG or compare it to expectations, he hasn't been great lately. He was a stud his first 3 years, not so much the last 3.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm damn glad I traded a 2.06 rookie pick for him last month. All this CJ bashing is ridiculous, unless of course you have a lot invested in him, then I see your point

 

[Banger]

Its easy to say his 2000 yard season won't happen again, but the backlash since then is ridiculous. He has played on some crappy titans teams. His qb has been hurt pretty much every year. The receivers sucked. The offensive line sucked until last year, and johnson had a torn meniscus last year, so he couldn't take full advantage. He has been a great player playing poorly for a bad team.

But when you hear people calling him cj.5k, or cj9k, its just silly. Everyone knows the stat - 6 years in the league, 6 1000 yard seasons. But there are some more interesting stats. He hasn't had fewer than 1400 total yards, with 36 or more receptions per year. His 2000 yard season was five years ago, but he has 32 tds in his last four seasons - including ten last year. He has been a weak rb1/fantastic rb2 every year.

And now this year, he has a nearly ideal situation. He has ivory to mash defenses early, which should significantly increase his ypc. Johnson isn't the back you want wearing down defenses on first down, or running on third and one, or running on the goal line. He's the guy you want running from the 9 yard line, or running on second and 6. In tennesse, he was often both. Now he has ivory to take the carries which were worst for his ypc. And he will be used in situations where vick is a threat to run, too, which makes it very difficult for defenses to key on johnson.

His upside is capped, somewhat, by the fact he's an unlikely goal line threat, and that he has running qbs who can take some of the mid range short yardage carries. And it seems unlikely for him to threaten for 2000 total yards again. But I think he will excel in new york, and put up yet another 1400+ total yard season. That makes him an outstanding rb2 choice.

Great post. In his 6 years he's finished 11, 1, 5, 16, 12 and 9 and to listen people talk about him you'd think that he put up one good year and been a complete bust every year since. I should just shut up and not try to show people why they are wrong and be ecstatic that I get him for RB24.

He's clearly a poster child where FF emotion (being burned) and the actual players personality come into play as opposed to looking at the numbers in a vaccum.

We don't play FF in a vacuum though, so why would you look at the numbers that way? If you look at PPG or compare it to expectations, he hasn't been great lately. He was a stud his first 3 years, not so much the last 3.

it's a numbers based game and the numbers are what they are. Here are his numbers in a vaccum from last year...7, 9.7, 9.1, 3.1, 14, 5.4, 17, 29, 7.3, 20.4, 8.1, 16.1, 11.5, 15.1, 9.3 and 20.1. Ya, he races cheetahs, likes money, has gold teeth, doesn't run over guys...who cares...to me he had 2 bad games, 6 average games, 5 above avg, 3 excellent games and finished as the 9th overall RB. I can deal with that bell curve every day of the week and he helped me win another championship. He had a tough schedule to start and easier one later on and his numbers reflect that.

BTW...those numbers were a good bit above his expectations as I got him late in every draft and it looks like it'll be the same this year.

 

[humpback]

Its easy to say his 2000 yard season won't happen again, but the backlash since then is ridiculous. He has played on some crappy titans teams. His qb has been hurt pretty much every year. The receivers sucked. The offensive line sucked until last year, and johnson had a torn meniscus last year, so he couldn't take full advantage. He has been a great player playing poorly for a bad team.

But when you hear people calling him cj.5k, or cj9k, its just silly. Everyone knows the stat - 6 years in the league, 6 1000 yard seasons. But there are some more interesting stats. He hasn't had fewer than 1400 total yards, with 36 or more receptions per year. His 2000 yard season was five years ago, but he has 32 tds in his last four seasons - including ten last year. He has been a weak rb1/fantastic rb2 every year.

And now this year, he has a nearly ideal situation. He has ivory to mash defenses early, which should significantly increase his ypc. Johnson isn't the back you want wearing down defenses on first down, or running on third and one, or running on the goal line. He's the guy you want running from the 9 yard line, or running on second and 6. In tennesse, he was often both. Now he has ivory to take the carries which were worst for his ypc. And he will be used in situations where vick is a threat to run, too, which makes it very difficult for defenses to key on johnson.

His upside is capped, somewhat, by the fact he's an unlikely goal line threat, and that he has running qbs who can take some of the mid range short yardage carries. And it seems unlikely for him to threaten for 2000 total yards again. But I think he will excel in new york, and put up yet another 1400+ total yard season. That makes him an outstanding rb2 choice.

Great post. In his 6 years he's finished 11, 1, 5, 16, 12 and 9 and to listen people talk about him you'd think that he put up one good year and been a complete bust every year since. I should just shut up and not try to show people why they are wrong and be ecstatic that I get him for RB24.

He's clearly a poster child where FF emotion (being burned) and the actual players personality come into play as opposed to looking at the numbers in a vaccum.

We don't play FF in a vacuum though, so why would you look at the numbers that way? If you look at PPG or compare it to expectations, he hasn't been great lately. He was a stud his first 3 years, not so much the last 3.

it's a numbers based game and the numbers are what they are. Here are his numbers in a vaccum from last year...7, 9.7, 9.1, 3.1, 14, 5.4, 17, 29, 7.3, 20.4, 8.1, 16.1, 11.5, 15.1, 9.3 and 20.1. Ya, he races cheetahs, likes money, has gold teeth, doesn't run over guys...who cares...to me he had 2 bad games, 6 average games, 5 above avg, 3 excellent games and finished as the 9th overall RB. I can deal with that bell curve every day of the week and he helped me win another championship. He had a tough schedule to start and easier one later on and his numbers reflect that.

BTW...those numbers were a good bit above his expectations as I got him late in every draft and it looks like it'll be the same this year.

It is a numbers game, but not a numbers in a vacuum game. Sorry, but 7 or 8 pts. isn't "average" either.

He finished slightly above his ADP/projections last year, and way below both years prior to that, but I guess that doesn't matter in your vacuum.

 

[bostonfred]

We don't play FF in a vacuum though, so why would you look at the numbers that way? If you look at PPG or compare it to expectations, he hasn't been great lately. He was a stud his first 3 years, not so much the last 3.

I don't even know what format you can be disappointed with him in.In dynasty, he's missed one NFL game in his six year career, and has been a top 20 player in every format every single year including a mammoth 2500 total yard season with 50 catches and 16 TDs. But you're only looking at the last three years, when he has 135 catches, 4366 yards and 20 TDs, for an average season of 45 catches, 1455 yards and 7 TDs. Of course, it's not fair to use averages, because he's been wildly inconsistent and failed to meet expectations. After all, he had 1422 yards last year, 1469 the year before, and 1465 the year before that. It's impossible to predict what he'll do for yardage from year to year when he keeps missing expectations like that.

In PPR, he was a top ten back, with just two single digit performances all season. @ Steelers, with 70 yards rushing and no receiving, @ Seahawks, with 22 rushing and 3 for 21 receiving, and vs. Jets, with 21 yards rushing and 3 for 10 receiving. He also had 7 games of 18 points or more. So 3 games in single digits, 6 games of 10-18 points, and 7 games of 18+.

In non PPR, he was a top ten back as well. And after his week 8 bye - after putting up 533 yards and 2 TDs in seven weeks against a brutal schedule including the Seahawks, 49ers, Chiefs and Jets - he really turned it on. In the final nine games of the season, he had 889 yards and 8 TDs. He was the number five overall running back in fantasy football, behind just Charles, McCoy, Forte, and Lacy. He outscored DeMarco Murray in his best season, Marshawn Lynch in their Superbowl season, and a healthy LeVeon Bell. He outscored the "surprise" running backs, like Rashad Jennings and Zac Stacy, who blew up in the second half - but nowhere near as much as CJ2K. He outscored Ryan Mathews in his resurgent season, and absolutely destroyed Adrian Peterson's numbers.

His playoff schedule wasn't the issue. He had 91 yards and a TD against the Cardinals in week 15, and 93 yards against the Jaguars in week 16. If you play to week 17, you got 141 yards and a TD from him against the Texans.

And all of this was on a torn meniscus in his knee, with his starting QB getting hurt yet again, a crappy group of receivers, and an offensive line which had turned over 3/5 of their starters and their tight end.

 

[cstu]

I don't even know what format you can be disappointed with him in.

He hasn't had 6 straight 2000 yard seasons.

 

[BroadwayG]

He's the anti-ChristineMichael

 

[bostonfred]

It is a numbers game, but not a numbers in a vacuum game. Sorry, but 7 or 8 pts. isn't "average" either.

He finished slightly above his ADP/projections last year, and way below both years prior to that, but I guess that doesn't matter in your vacuum.

Oh, your issue is with 2012. When, as I just mentioned, their offensive line sucked bad enough that they replaced 3/5 of their starters and their tight end.Let's look at the 2012 numbers for the number 12 and 13 running backs of the year:

Chris Johnson: 36 catches, 1469 yards, and 6 TDs.

Matt Forte: .. 44 catches, 1434 yards, and 6 TDs.

Both of those guys played like low end RB1s/high end RB2s. Are you downgrading Forte, who played above expectations in 2013 and below expectations in 2012? Or just Chris Johnson? Because most people have Forte as a first round stud RB in redrafts this year because of his 2013 performance. If we drafted Chris Johnson off his 2013 performance, he'd go in the early second round of redraft leagues, but I doubt his ADP will end up there. In the WSL and PDSL drafts, he's been drafted between 57th and 74th overall. Now that his situation has solidified, how much do you think the ninth overall running back last year will move up? Will be break into the top 40? Top 30? Forte was the number four running back last year, and he's being drafted fourth among running backs and 6th overall.

Is the problem that Chris Johnson was only RB16 in 2011? Again - a strong #2 running back in a 12 team league? He had 57 catches for 1465 yards and 4 TDs. And that really was a disappointment, compared to 44/1609/12 stat line in 2010 and his 50 catch, 2500 yard 16 TD performance that won leagues everywhere in 2009.

And that's the real issue. The bar was set high with 28 TDs in 2009 and 2010. Then he had four touchdowns in 2011. His first couple weeks sucked, his owners tried to trade him and couldn't, and he never got anywhere close to the double digit touchdowns people expected. He had good catches, good yards, he finished as a solid RB2, but he only had 4 TDs. So people just decided he sucked. Then in 2012, he started out slow again, and people decided he sucked again. In 2013, he started out kind of slow - nowhere near as bad as the two prior years - and again, people decided he sucked.

But you're looking at this all wrong. You're acting as though his failure to meet his high expectations is the reason he sucks. That's a ridiculous statement. It'd be like wearing a heavy coat on a 70 degree day because you expected it to be 90, and going out in shorts on a 30 degree day because you expected it to be below zero. When people decide a guy sucks in spite of the numbers, the problem isn't that the numbers failed to meet expectations, it's that people's expectations were wrong. And that's how you win at this hobby - you find guys who will outperform people's expectations. You've built in a confirmation bias against him because he failed to meet your expectations in the past, and you're lowering your opinion of him to the point where he presents a value for other owners because you don't like the numbers he put up.

That irrational thinking is why he's been an awesome value since October 2012 and why he will be one again this year.

 

[Banger]

It is a numbers game, but not a numbers in a vacuum game. Sorry, but 7 or 8 pts. isn't "average" either.

He finished slightly above his ADP/projections last year, and way below both years prior to that, but I guess that doesn't matter in your vacuum.

Oh, your issue is with 2012. When, as I just mentioned, their offensive line sucked bad enough that they replaced 3/5 of their starters and their tight end.Let's look at the 2012 numbers for the number 12 and 13 running backs of the year:

Chris Johnson: 36 catches, 1469 yards, and 6 TDs.

Matt Forte: .. 44 catches, 1434 yards, and 6 TDs.

Both of those guys played like low end RB1s/high end RB2s. Are you downgrading Forte, who played above expectations in 2013 and below expectations in 2012? Or just Chris Johnson? Because most people have Forte as a first round stud RB in redrafts this year because of his 2013 performance. If we drafted Chris Johnson off his 2013 performance, he'd go in the early second round of redraft leagues, but I doubt his ADP will end up there. In the WSL and PDSL drafts, he's been drafted between 57th and 74th overall. Now that his situation has solidified, how much do you think the ninth overall running back last year will move up? Will be break into the top 40? Top 30? Forte was the number four running back last year, and he's being drafted fourth among running backs and 6th overall.

Is the problem that Chris Johnson was only RB16 in 2011? Again - a strong #2 running back in a 12 team league? He had 57 catches for 1465 yards and 4 TDs. And that really was a disappointment, compared to 44/1609/12 stat line in 2010 and his 50 catch, 2500 yard 16 TD performance that won leagues everywhere in 2009.

And that's the real issue. The bar was set high with 28 TDs in 2009 and 2010. Then he had four touchdowns in 2011. His first couple weeks sucked, his owners tried to trade him and couldn't, and he never got anywhere close to the double digit touchdowns people expected. He had good catches, good yards, he finished as a solid RB2, but he only had 4 TDs. So people just decided he sucked. Then in 2012, he started out slow again, and people decided he sucked again. In 2013, he started out kind of slow - nowhere near as bad as the two prior years - and again, people decided he sucked.

But you're looking at this all wrong. You're acting as though his failure to meet his high expectations is the reason he sucks. That's a ridiculous statement. It'd be like wearing a heavy coat on a 70 degree day because you expected it to be 90, and going out in shorts on a 30 degree day because you expected it to be below zero. When people decide a guy sucks in spite of the numbers, the problem isn't that the numbers failed to meet expectations, it's that people's expectations were wrong. And that's how you win at this hobby - you find guys who will outperform people's expectations. You've built in a confirmation bias against him because he failed to meet your expectations in the past, and you're lowering your opinion of him to the point where he presents a value for other owners because you don't like the numbers he put up.

That irrational thinking is why he's been an awesome value since October 2012 and why he will be one again this year.

and boom goes the dynamite...another

 

[humpback]

It is a numbers game, but not a numbers in a vacuum game. Sorry, but 7 or 8 pts. isn't "average" either.

He finished slightly above his ADP/projections last year, and way below both years prior to that, but I guess that doesn't matter in your vacuum.

Oh, your issue is with 2012. When, as I just mentioned, their offensive line sucked bad enough that they replaced 3/5 of their starters and their tight end.Let's look at the 2012 numbers for the number 12 and 13 running backs of the year:

Chris Johnson: 36 catches, 1469 yards, and 6 TDs.

Matt Forte: .. 44 catches, 1434 yards, and 6 TDs.

Both of those guys played like low end RB1s/high end RB2s. Are you downgrading Forte, who played above expectations in 2013 and below expectations in 2012? Or just Chris Johnson? Because most people have Forte as a first round stud RB in redrafts this year because of his 2013 performance. If we drafted Chris Johnson off his 2013 performance, he'd go in the early second round of redraft leagues, but I doubt his ADP will end up there. In the WSL and PDSL drafts, he's been drafted between 57th and 74th overall. Now that his situation has solidified, how much do you think the ninth overall running back last year will move up? Will be break into the top 40? Top 30? Forte was the number four running back last year, and he's being drafted fourth among running backs and 6th overall.

Is the problem that Chris Johnson was only RB16 in 2011? Again - a strong #2 running back in a 12 team league? He had 57 catches for 1465 yards and 4 TDs. And that really was a disappointment, compared to 44/1609/12 stat line in 2010 and his 50 catch, 2500 yard 16 TD performance that won leagues everywhere in 2009.

And that's the real issue. The bar was set high with 28 TDs in 2009 and 2010. Then he had four touchdowns in 2011. His first couple weeks sucked, his owners tried to trade him and couldn't, and he never got anywhere close to the double digit touchdowns people expected. He had good catches, good yards, he finished as a solid RB2, but he only had 4 TDs. So people just decided he sucked. Then in 2012, he started out slow again, and people decided he sucked again. In 2013, he started out kind of slow - nowhere near as bad as the two prior years - and again, people decided he sucked.

But you're looking at this all wrong. You're acting as though his failure to meet his high expectations is the reason he sucks. That's a ridiculous statement. It'd be like wearing a heavy coat on a 70 degree day because you expected it to be 90, and going out in shorts on a 30 degree day because you expected it to be below zero. When people decide a guy sucks in spite of the numbers, the problem isn't that the numbers failed to meet expectations, it's that people's expectations were wrong. And that's how you win at this hobby - you find guys who will outperform people's expectations. You've built in a confirmation bias against him because he failed to meet your expectations in the past, and you're lowering your opinion of him to the point where he presents a value for other owners because you don't like the numbers he put up.

That irrational thinking is why he's been an awesome value since October 2012 and why he will be one again this year.

You're probably doing this intentionally, but you're conflating fantasy with reality. I never said he sucks, in fact my first post after the signing was "good for the Jets, not so much for fantasy". So, most of your rant is off target to begin with.

Unless you get bonus points for having your QB get hurt, having bad WRs or shifting up the O-line, that's all irrelevant for this discussion. When you're drafting a RB with a top 6ish pick and he ends up being the #16 RB, yeah, I'd say that's grounds for disappointment. I'm not looking at it relative to what he did prior, it's what he was expected to do that year, which is why you paid the high price. When guys under perform their draft slot by that much, it's a disappointment. It really shouldn't be controversial at all.

No worries though, keep thinking you've got my biases and motivations all figured out.

 

[jurb26]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

 

[humpback]

It is a numbers game, but not a numbers in a vacuum game. Sorry, but 7 or 8 pts. isn't "average" either.

He finished slightly above his ADP/projections last year, and way below both years prior to that, but I guess that doesn't matter in your vacuum.

Oh, your issue is with 2012. When, as I just mentioned, their offensive line sucked bad enough that they replaced 3/5 of their starters and their tight end.Let's look at the 2012 numbers for the number 12 and 13 running backs of the year:

Chris Johnson: 36 catches, 1469 yards, and 6 TDs.

Matt Forte: .. 44 catches, 1434 yards, and 6 TDs.

Both of those guys played like low end RB1s/high end RB2s. Are you downgrading Forte, who played above expectations in 2013 and below expectations in 2012? Or just Chris Johnson? Because most people have Forte as a first round stud RB in redrafts this year because of his 2013 performance. If we drafted Chris Johnson off his 2013 performance, he'd go in the early second round of redraft leagues, but I doubt his ADP will end up there. In the WSL and PDSL drafts, he's been drafted between 57th and 74th overall. Now that his situation has solidified, how much do you think the ninth overall running back last year will move up? Will be break into the top 40? Top 30? Forte was the number four running back last year, and he's being drafted fourth among running backs and 6th overall.

Is the problem that Chris Johnson was only RB16 in 2011? Again - a strong #2 running back in a 12 team league? He had 57 catches for 1465 yards and 4 TDs. And that really was a disappointment, compared to 44/1609/12 stat line in 2010 and his 50 catch, 2500 yard 16 TD performance that won leagues everywhere in 2009.

And that's the real issue. The bar was set high with 28 TDs in 2009 and 2010. Then he had four touchdowns in 2011. His first couple weeks sucked, his owners tried to trade him and couldn't, and he never got anywhere close to the double digit touchdowns people expected. He had good catches, good yards, he finished as a solid RB2, but he only had 4 TDs. So people just decided he sucked. Then in 2012, he started out slow again, and people decided he sucked again. In 2013, he started out kind of slow - nowhere near as bad as the two prior years - and again, people decided he sucked.

But you're looking at this all wrong. You're acting as though his failure to meet his high expectations is the reason he sucks. That's a ridiculous statement. It'd be like wearing a heavy coat on a 70 degree day because you expected it to be 90, and going out in shorts on a 30 degree day because you expected it to be below zero. When people decide a guy sucks in spite of the numbers, the problem isn't that the numbers failed to meet expectations, it's that people's expectations were wrong. And that's how you win at this hobby - you find guys who will outperform people's expectations. You've built in a confirmation bias against him because he failed to meet your expectations in the past, and you're lowering your opinion of him to the point where he presents a value for other owners because you don't like the numbers he put up.

That irrational thinking is why he's been an awesome value since October 2012 and why he will be one again this year.

and boom goes the dynamite...another

 

[Banger]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists despite another top 10 finish....rinse / repeat.

I asked 4 friends over the weekend that hate CJ and said they would never draft him again where they thought he finished last year and all thought he was in the 20's. I told them that he's never been out of the top 16 and finished 9th and they were all shocked. These are guys in $1,000+ leagues that have played for 10+ years. The hate runs really deep with him.

 

[jurb26]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

 

[Banger]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

 

[humpback]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

 

[jurb26]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.

 

[Banger]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

look if I take a guy 6th and he finishes 16th in his worst year, that's not bad. If that's the floor of his bust year, that's manageable. Yes, you were expecting more and he had a terrible, terrible start that year but if your downside is top 20 for a RB20 that's money in the bank...you're drafting below the floor.

He's literally probably been a value ADP vs. final finish every year except maybe 2. I'd look but I don't know how to get old ADP stats.

 

[MDSkinner]

ADP Rankings going back - MFL

This is one source for that data, if you are interested.

 

[humpback]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.

Absolutely not- he finished well behind his ADP 2 years ago. Last year he finished slightly higher, which isn't "great" value, it's good.

Do you guys really not know this?

 

[jurb26]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.

Absolutely not- he finished well behind his ADP 2 years ago. Last year he finished slightly higher, which isn't "great" value, it's good.Do you guys really not know this?

Last year he was an unbelievable value. His ADP was RB25. His finish in PPG was RB12.

 

[humpback]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

look if I take a guy 6th and he finishes 16th in his worst year, that's not bad. If that's the floor of his bust year, that's manageable. Yes, you were expecting more and he had a terrible, terrible start that year but if your downside is top 20 for a RB20 that's money in the bank...you're drafting below the floor.

He's literally probably been a value ADP vs. final finish every year except maybe 2. I'd look but I don't know how to get old ADP stats.

It sure as heck isn't good, and it's the opposite of "great value". If you want to keep beating that drum, knock yourself out.

 

[humpback]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.

Absolutely not- he finished well behind his ADP 2 years ago. Last year he finished slightly higher, which isn't "great" value, it's good.Do you guys really not know this?

Last year he was an unbelievable value. His ADP was RB25. His finish in PPG was RB12.

Is this the bizarro thread? Per the link provided his ADP last year was RB 12.

 

[jurb26]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.

Absolutely not- he finished well behind his ADP 2 years ago. Last year he finished slightly higher, which isn't "great" value, it's good.Do you guys really not know this?

Last year he was an unbelievable value. His ADP was RB25. His finish in PPG was RB12.

Is this the bizarro thread? Per the link provided his ADP last year was RB 12.

That link is wrong. His ADP was no where near that. Here's a more reliable one. http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2012&teams=12&pos=rb

 

[humpback]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.

Absolutely not- he finished well behind his ADP 2 years ago. Last year he finished slightly higher, which isn't "great" value, it's good.Do you guys really not know this?

Last year he was an unbelievable value. His ADP was RB25. His finish in PPG was RB12.

Is this the bizarro thread? Per the link provided his ADP last year was RB 12.

That link is wrong. His ADP was no where near that. Here's a more reliable one.http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2012&teams=12&pos=rb

 

[jurb26]

Bostonfred pretty much just outlined how I was able to draft CJ in 3 leagues last year and ride him to deep playoff runs and a Championship in all the leagues. High RB2 production at a low RB3 price.

agreed and the mentality persists....rinse / repeat.

Ok, then keep it down in here. I'd like to be able to do it again....

I know...I questioned why I even keep beating the drum....just shut up and take the value.

Seriously- are you saying that Chris Johnson has been a great value every year?

Every year, no. The last 2 years, absolutely. Looks like this year as well.

Absolutely not- he finished well behind his ADP 2 years ago. Last year he finished slightly higher, which isn't "great" value, it's good.

Do you guys really not know this?

Last year he was an unbelievable value. His ADP was RB25. His finish in PPG was RB12.

Is this the bizarro thread? Per the link provided his ADP last year was RB 12.

That link is wrong. His ADP was no where near that. Here's a more reliable one.http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2012&teams=12&pos=rb

Do I need to give instructions on how to use the filters?

 

[bostonfred]

Unless you get bonus points for having your QB get hurt, having bad WRs or shifting up the O-line, that's all irrelevant for this discussion. When you're drafting a RB with a top 6ish pick and he ends up being the #16 RB, yeah, I'd say that's grounds for disappointment. I'm not looking at it relative to what he did prior, it's what he was expected to do that year, which is why you paid the high price. When guys under perform their draft slot by that much, it's a disappointment. It really shouldn't be controversial at all.

Just one last post on this point. And let me be clear that my point is about Chris Johnson's value, not about you. I'm sorry if it's coming off like I'm blasting you, especially for something you're not saying. That's definitely not my intention.This post right here, though, is specifically the sentiment that matters to me. I 100% agree with you that 2011 was a disappointment. Not a Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Ray Rice or David Wilson kind of disappointment, but a disappointment nonetheless. When you pay a top five price for a guy and get RB16, you're going to have a hard time winning your league. It doesn't totally sink your season, but it sure doesn't help.

Where we seem to diverge, though, is in the value of discussing that disappointing season. You commented, "If you look at PPG or compare it to expectations, he hasn't been great lately. He was a stud his first 3 years, not so much the last 3." But as we've just discussed, if he hasn't been great lately, he's been close. He's put up remarkably consistent yardage - three years in a row within 30 yards of his average. His receptions and TDs have fluctuated, but he's been a poor RB1 or good RB2 three straight years. That might not be "a stud", but it's pretty damn good.

So what's the value of looking at his failure to meet expectations? I don't believe that there's any predictive value in comparing his ADP to his production. I don't think his performance will change one iota depending on whether fantasy football players in Wisconsin take him in the top 10 or outside of the top 50.

But there IS predictive value in looking at his past performance, and in looking at how people PERCEIVE his past "disappointments". Because it sure looks like people are going to discount him once again. And that's where his value comes from. He's an underrated player who should be a high end RB2 once again but will likely be drafted as a borderline RB3 and can be acquired at low end RB2 value.

Rotoworld's first blurb on him after he was signed was "The Jets get their man. Gang Green was the only team really showing legitimate interest in the 28-year-old six-time 1,000-yard rusher. Johnson visited with the Jets all day on Tuesday and said he had more visits to make. Either the Jets wooed him with more money to keep him from leaving town or Johnson simply didn't have any other clubs interested in him. In our opinion, Chris Ivory should remain the early-down back in New York with Johnson mixing in to see 8-12 touches per game. Johnson's fantasy value clearly takes a hit, if so.". Those are pretty low expectations for him. In a more recent post, they amended their projection to 12 to 15 touches per game, but reiterated "Johnson isn't going to be a true bell cow in New York". In other words, they're pretty pessimistic on him.

I tend to agree that his touches per game will go down. He's had a pretty steady 19-20 touches per game over the past three seasons, and I expect that to drop. But I also believe that his effectiveness per touch will improve. And that's where your comment "Unless you get bonus points for having your QB get hurt, having bad WRs or shifting up the O-line, that's all irrelevant for fantasy" is way off. I believe that it's entirely relevant when trying to predict how he will do with his touches. I believe that he's in a better situation and will get better opportunities (e.g. Ivory will take third and 1, but Chris Johnson will take third and long). If you predict a 20% decline in touches but a 20% increase in yards per touch, the numbers should stay close to even.

And to predict an increase in yards per touch, it absolutely helps to understand what he's trying to increase FROM. Johnson averaged close to 4.4 yards per carry in 2012, but 3.9 in 2013. It's meaningful that he was hurt in 2013, and that his line had massive turnover, and that his receivers sucked, and his QB got hurt, because it helps to explain why his numbers might have been down - and why we should project them to be better in 2014.

When we look at his decline from 2008-10 to 2011-13, it's meaningful to point out that the quarterback, offensive line and receivers all sucked during that timeframe, too. And that his best numbers came from working with a mobile quarterback who forced teams to play contain over here when the running back's over there. And that Ivory will help to improve his yards per rush by virtue of softening the defense and taking undesirable carries.

I find that much more meaningful than predicting him to disappoint because he's disappointed before. That's what your posts seemed to be advocating, but more importantly, it's what the rest of the fantasy football community seems to have done with him.