Where Would You Draft QB's In Low QB Scoring League? (1 Viewer)

[gethugefast1]

Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1DST, 1K

QB's Scoring: 3 PTS PER/TD, 1 PT PER/25YDS (6 RUSHING/RECEIVING TD's, 1 PT PER/10 YARDS RUSHING/RECEIVING)

RB/WR/TE: 6/TD, 1 PER 10 YARDS

DST/K: TYPICAL

League: 10 Teams, 1 Keeper, 13 Rounds

 

[Musesboy]

Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1DST, 1K

QB's Scoring: 3 PTS PER/TD, 1 PT PER/25YDS (6 RUSHING/RECEIVING TD's, 1 PT PER/10 YARDS RUSHING/RECEIVING)

RB/WR/TE: 6/TD, 1 PER 10 YARDS

DST/K: TYPICAL

League: 10 Teams, 1 Keeper, 13 Rounds

This looks like a job for the projections dominator and the draft dominator (free on the FBGs home page), but here are my thoughts:I wouldn't change my opinion about Manning too much in that scoring system. I have him projected to do a little better than FBGs suggests, but let's use their expectations as an unbiased measure of what would happen using your scoring system.

I am not going to run all of the calculations, but here are the top few QBs using 1/25 and 3/TD (with -1 for INTs).

1 - Manning 261.5

2 - Palmer 236.4

3 - Brady 236.5

4 - Brees 226.9

5 - Bulger 225.5

6 - Vick 222.9

7 - Young 220.7

8 - Romo 207.3

9 - Leinart 203.9

10 - McNabb 203.3

11 - Hasselbeck 202.9

So Manning's VBD value would be 261.5 - QB10, so 58.2

Note that Vick and Young move up considerably due to their rushing ability. If you think Vick will play 16 games, he could be great value.

But the fact is, Manning still stands out ahead of the crowd. Under the FBGs scoring system, his VBD value is 75.1 in a 10 team league, so he loses about 1 point per game under your scenario.

Other positions (complicated somehwat by the flex):

RBs

The top nine would have a better VBD value if you plan to start two.

WRs

Only two have a better VBD value than Manning if you plan to start two.

TEs

Your starting requirements don't have TEs as a separate position.

You also have to consider that you will only be able to keep one player. If you get a pick in the second half of the round, would you want your top keeper to be a QB? Doubtful.

By asking this question, I am guessing that your perception is that Manning's value is drastically reduced. It is reduced, but he's still valuable. Every other QB will have reduced numbers, so Manning still stands out; just a little bit less than before. I would ignore him in the first and hope that the other owners downgrade him due to the scoring. I would take him in the second if he is there.

The low probability of Manning busting (never missed a game) would also factor into my decision to take him in the second.

 

[Bri]

So Manning's VBD value would be 261.5 - QB10, so 58.2

Typo? Why the 10? I'm missing something here

 

[Bri]

I think in the first post you give off the notion that it should be a late pick and well I agree. Just keep in mind that if everyone feels that way it'll present a unique value that you should jump up and grab.

 

[Musesboy]

So Manning's VBD value would be 261.5 - QB10, so 58.2

Typo? Why the 10? I'm missing something here

10 team league

 

[Bri]

So Manning's VBD value would be 261.5 - QB10, so 58.2

Typo? Why the 10? I'm missing something here

10 team league

top QB=QB 10?

 

[Musesboy]

10 team league

top QB=QB 10?

In a 10 team league, Manning's VBD value would be his projected total (261.5) minus the projected total of the 10th best QB (McNabb 203.3). So 261.5 - 203.3 = 58.2.

 

[BassNBrew]

Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1DST, 1K

QB's Scoring: 3 PTS PER/TD, 1 PT PER/25YDS (6 RUSHING/RECEIVING TD's, 1 PT PER/10 YARDS RUSHING/RECEIVING)

RB/WR/TE: 6/TD, 1 PER 10 YARDS

DST/K: TYPICAL

League: 10 Teams, 1 Keeper, 13 Rounds

Horrible format, your hands are basically tied. You must have 3 RBs starting each week. I think 4 RBs out of the gate is almost a must. I might push that 4th RB back a round if Housh or Walker is there in round 4. I'd come out of the first 10 rounds with 6 RBs and 4 WRs. In rounds 11, 12, and 13 I take one QB/D/K, each with a different bye week, the later the better. In this type of league I wouldn't be concerned at all about using the waiver wire to find my QB most weeks.

 

[gethugefast1]

Start: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1FLEX, 1DST, 1K

QB's Scoring: 3 PTS PER/TD, 1 PT PER/25YDS (6 RUSHING/RECEIVING TD's, 1 PT PER/10 YARDS RUSHING/RECEIVING)

RB/WR/TE: 6/TD, 1 PER 10 YARDS

DST/K: TYPICAL

League: 10 Teams, 1 Keeper, 13 Rounds

Horrible format, your hands are basically tied. You must have 3 RBs starting each week. I think 4 RBs out of the gate is almost a must. I might push that 4th RB back a round if Housh or Walker is there in round 4. I'd come out of the first 10 rounds with 6 RBs and 4 WRs. In rounds 11, 12, and 13 I take one QB/D/K, each with a different bye week, the later the better. In this type of league I wouldn't be concerned at all about using the waiver wire to find my QB most weeks.

BassNBrew, You're right on with the way my league drafted the last 2 years.I placed the topic in many different off-season discussion boards that my league drafted 44 RB's in rounds 1-5 and 44 WR's in rounds 5-8. QB's rounds 9 & 10. K's & DST's in Final 3 rounds.

All, let me repeat that, ALL FF owners were in disbelief. I displayed the league format, and the complete draft order itself.

No one could believe P. Manning could fall to the 9th round.

BassNBrew. How did you come to the conclusion that this is valid?

I still have a hard time wondering with our previous last 2 years of drafting...

While others are going... RB RB RB RB RB/WR WR WR WR QB QB DST K

Why I shouldn't go... (K)RB (T10)RB (T1)WR (T5)WR (T10)WR (T15)WR (T3)QB (T3)QB (T3)QB (T2)DST (T2)DST (T50)RB (T50)RB (T10)K

K=Keeper

T1=Top ADP

T5=Top 5 ADP

and so on

If no one where to budge from their preveious drafting history I could end up w/a team like...

Maroney(K)

R.Johnson @ 2.3

S.Smith

Harrison

TO

A.Johnson

P.Manning

Brady

Palmer

Bears

Ravens

RB Sleeper/Handcuff

RB Sleeper/Handcuff

K

But you're saying, I SHOULD go "first 10 rounds with 6 RBs and 4 WRs"

Help me understand?

 

[gethugefast1]

I could jump ahead a couple of rounds ahead of their picks and get the Top WR', QB's & DST's. My depth at RB would be weaker, but I would have great leverage for trades/or keep the Top WR', QB's & DST's from the other teams.

 

[gethugefast1]

BassNBrew, I asked about how you figured out our draft order without me mentioning it w/the original post, because as I said 'you were the 1st one to understand". Well besides my other FFL team owners.

I still don't know how our format would lead to this draft pattern...RB RB RB RB RB/WR WR WR WR QB QB DST K

I question your (& their) projections because...with our format the average scoring for the Top players in our league last year was as follows...

RB's

LT 25.6 POINTS PER GAME

LJ 20

SJAX 19.8

WESTY 16.2

GORE 16.1

PARKER 16

WR's

HARRISON 12.5

COLSTON 12

S.SMITH 12

TO 11.8

D.JACKSON 11.5

R.WAYNE 11.3

QB's

McNABB 18.7 (obvious injury shortened)

P.MANNING 18.1

VICK 16.2

BREES 15.6

KITNA 15.4

BULGER 15.1

PALMER 15

V.YOUNG 14

DST's

RAVENS 18.6

BEARS 16.5

CHARGERS 13.6

PATS 12.6

FINS 12.4

With this final scoring, shouldn't I be drafting the way I explained above and get the Top players in each position if my fellow owners continue their drafting pattern from the previous 2 years?

 

[BassNBrew]

BassNBrew, I asked about how you figured out our draft order without me mentioning it w/the original post, because as I said 'you were the 1st one to understand". Well besides my other FFL team owners.

I still don't know how our format would lead to this draft pattern...RB RB RB RB RB/WR WR WR WR QB QB DST K

I question your (& their) projections because...with our format the average scoring for the Top players in our league last year was as follows...

RB's

LT 25.6 POINTS PER GAME

LJ 20

SJAX 19.8

WESTY 16.2

GORE 16.1

PARKER 16

WR's

HARRISON 12.5

COLSTON 12

S.SMITH 12

TO 11.8

D.JACKSON 11.5

R.WAYNE 11.3

QB's

McNABB 18.7 (obvious injury shortened)

P.MANNING 18.1

VICK 16.2

BREES 15.6

KITNA 15.4

BULGER 15.1

PALMER 15

V.YOUNG 14

DST's

RAVENS 18.6

BEARS 16.5

CHARGERS 13.6

PATS 12.6

FINS 12.4

With this final scoring, shouldn't I be drafting the way I explained above and get the Top players in each position if my fellow owners continue their drafting pattern from the previous 2 years?

You make a good point about zigging while everyone else is zagging. The reason I mentioned that draft pattern is that you can start 3 RBs each week. Between byes and injury you need a 4th. Looking at last year's stats there were 29 RBs that posted 10+ ppg.
1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian SD 16 349 1815 28 56 508 3 1 427.4 26.71 2 RB Johnson,Larry KC 16 416 1789 17 41 410 2 2 333.9 20.87 3 RB Jackson,Steven STL 16 346 1528 13 90 806 3 2 329.4 20.59 4 RB Westbrook,Brian PHI 15 240 1217 7 77 699 4 2 257.6 17.17 5 RB Gore,Frank SF 16 313 1695 8 61 485 1 6 272.0 17.00 6 RB Parker,Willie PIT 16 337 1494 13 31 222 3 5 267.6 16.73 7 RB Barber,Tiki NYG 16 327 1662 5 58 465 0 1 242.7 15.17 8 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice JAX 16 166 941 13 46 436 2 1 227.7 14.23 9 RB Jones,Kevin DET 12 181 689 6 61 520 2 5 168.9 14.08 10 RB Portis,Clinton WAS 8 127 523 7 17 170 0 0 111.3 13.91 11 RB Alexander,Shaun SEA 10 252 896 7 12 48 0 3 136.4 13.64 12 RB Johnson,Rudi CIN 16 341 1308 12 23 124 0 2 215.2 13.45 13 RB Green,Ahman GB 14 266 1059 5 46 373 1 2 179.9 12.85 14 RB McAllister,Deuce NO 15 244 1057 10 30 198 0 1 191.9 12.79 15 RB Taylor,Chester MIN 15 304 1214 6 42 288 0 3 186.2 12.41 16 RB Henry,Travis TEN 14 270 1211 7 18 78 0 1 170.9 12.21 17 RB Brown,Ronnie MIA 13 242 1005 5 33 276 0 3 158.1 12.16 18 RB Betts,Ladell WAS 16 245 1154 4 53 445 1 3 189.9 11.87 19 RB Addai,Joseph IND 16 226 1081 7 40 325 1 2 188.6 11.79 20 RB Taylor,Fred JAX 15 231 1146 5 23 242 1 2 174.8 11.65 21 RB Barber,Marion DAL 16 136 654 14 23 196 2 0 181.0 11.31 22 RB Lewis,Jamal BAL 16 314 1132 9 18 115 0 2 178.7 11.17 23 RB Bush,Reggie NO 16 154 558 6 89 748 2 2 177.6 11.10 24 RB Dillon,Corey NE 16 199 812 13 15 147 0 2 173.9 10.87 25 RB James,Edgerrin ARI 16 337 1159 6 38 217 0 3 173.6 10.85 26 RB McGahee,Willis BUF 14 259 990 6 18 156 0 2 150.6 10.76 27 RB Jones,Thomas CHI 16 297 1209 6 36 154 0 1 171.7 10.73 28 RB Branch,Jamaal NO 1 10 29 0 5 14 1 0 10.3 10.30 29 RB Dunn,Warrick ATL 16 286 1140 4 22 170 1 0 161.0 10.06Only 15 WRs did that...

1 WR  Harrison,Marvin	   IND 16	0	0	0   95 1366   12	 1 208.6 13.04  2 WR  Smith,Steve		   CAR 14	8   61	1   83 1166	8	 0 176.7 12.62  3 WR  Owens,Terrell		 DAL 16	0	0	0   85 1180   13	 0 196.0 12.25  4 WR  Jackson,Darrell	   SEA 13	0	0	0   63  956   10	 0 155.6 11.97  5 WR  Houshmandzadeh,T.J.   CIN 14	3	6	0   90 1081	9	 0 162.7 11.62  6 WR  Wayne,Reggie		  IND 16	0	0	0   86 1310	9	 0 185.0 11.56  7 WR  Johnson,Chad		  CIN 16	6   24	0   87 1370	7	 1 181.4 11.34  8 WR  Holt,Torry			STL 16	0	0	0   93 1188   10	 1 178.8 11.18  9 WR  Driver,Donald		 GB  16	7   16	0   92 1295	8	 0 178.4 11.15 10 WR  Evans,Lee			 BUF 16	0	0	0   82 1290	8	 1 177.1 11.07 11 WR  Walker,Javon		  DEN 16	9  123	1   69 1084	8	 0 174.7 10.92 12 WR  Colston,Marques	   NO  14	0	0	0   70 1038	8	 0 151.8 10.84 13 WR  Williams,Roy		  DET 16	2	2	0   82 1310	7	 2 173.2 10.83 14 WR  Burress,Plaxico	   NYG 15	0	0	0   63  988   10	 1 158.8 10.59 15 WR  Fitzgerald,Larry	  ARI 13	1	5	0   68  941	6	 0 130.6 10.05

12 RBs topped the number one WR. Gore, Parker, MJD, Green could all have been had in the 3rd round or later (standard league). YOu mention drafting WR1 above and then coming back to get WR5. The ppg drop between those selections is only 1.5 ppg. I suspect the RB ppg drop off during that time frame is significantly larger.A couple of other comments. I see no reason to have Manning, Palmer, and Brady. You'll be torn as to who to start and the trade scenarios will be limited with guys like Young (last year) out on the wire. I think drafting the way you mentioned above will field you a top team. However you will invariably lag the team that hits on the RBs in the early rounds. Your team will have no answer for last year's Gore and MJD while the good RB team can work the wire and play matchups in their weak areas.

 

[LHUCKS]

This is a VY league ...I'd be targeting him as late as possible.

 

[LHUCKS]

RB, RB, RB, WR, WR/RB, RB/QB