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Where would you rank Blackmon if you didn't need him for the first (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Footballguy
He's currently ranked in the top 30 but is that ranking taking his suspension into account? Obviously he won't be available for the first month but after that, if he more of a top 20 guy or still just a top 30 guy?

 
Should easily play at a WR3 level (25-36) when he returns. I suspect he'll be around WR20 on a ppg basis.

 
He came in out of shape last year after the hold out, and was much better the latter half of the season. Supposedly he's lost weight, is quicker, and looks like the real beast of that receiving corp. I sort of agree with Ninja's placing, but he could better that, making him a solid WR2 and a great WR3. I think he'll be in my lineup as either WR3 or flex after week 4.

 
During the second half of last year (9 games) he put up a 46/672/5 stat line, a 5/72/.55 average. If you extrapolate that over a full season, you're looking at a 80/1152/9. Last year, that would be good for 16th best in PPR (249 points).

The scenario changes this year with Gabbert under center and MJD healthy (knock on wood) but I still feel it's a safe bet to say he has WR2 upside.

 
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Yeah but how long is Gabbert really going to last unless he improves quite a bit? I figure either Gabbert gets a lot better or he's toast by Week 8.

 
He came in out of shape last year after the hold out, and was much better the latter half of the season. Supposedly he's lost weight, is quicker, and looks like the real beast of that receiving corp. I sort of agree with Ninja's placing, but he could better that, making him a solid WR2 and a great WR3. I think he'll be in my lineup as either WR3 or flex after week 4.
He's looked really good in the preseason. I wouldn't be afraid to start him when he returns.

 
Yeah but how long is Gabbert really going to last unless he improves quite a bit? I figure either Gabbert gets a lot better or he's toast by Week 8.
For Henne? That is the problem, that Chad Henne appears to be the same QB he has been since he got in the league. He looks good at times but is very inconsistent and cannot be relied on in crunch time. I expect Gabbert will get the entire season if healthy unless he regresses. So any projections with Blackmon should assume Blaine is the starter.

If Blackmon was not suspend I would rank him a high end RB3 with slightly more upside than most of the guys around him, but also more risk.

 
For Henne? That is the problem, that Chad Henne appears to be the same QB he has been since he got in the league. He looks good at times but is very inconsistent and cannot be relied on in crunch time.
While true, Henne sort of had vapor lock on Blackmon down the stretch last year. When he'd get in trouble, or tried his typical "I can fit this football into that window no problem/I'll throw this up and let my WR try to make a play on it" schtick that he doesn't really have the chops for, Blackmon was frequently the target.

Henne made Blackmon into a bit of a target hog. Gabbert, not so much. Target hogs are almost always good to chase. Was it because Blackmon improved as the season wore on, the fact that Shorts missed some time late, or because Henne was better than BG? Probably a combination of everything. Chicken or the egg, etc.

Point being, if Henne gets in there I don't think it should necessarily be viewed as a negative for Blackmon. He's willing to chuck it up and attempt to let WRs make a play, even when he shouldn't, and Blackmon is a big enough body with good enough hands to win those 50/50 shots his fair share.

He's an easy WR3 for me if he stays healthy/sober. If he comes back super motivated and one of Henne/Gabbert is actually playing well top end WR2 production, on a PPG basis, wouldn't be totally out of the question.

 
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For Henne? That is the problem, that Chad Henne appears to be the same QB he has been since he got in the league. He looks good at times but is very inconsistent and cannot be relied on in crunch time.
While true, Henne sort of had vapor lock on Blackmon down the stretch last year. When he'd get in trouble, or tried his typical "I can fit this football into that window no problem/I'll throw this up and let my WR try to make a play on it" schtick that he doesn't really have the chops for, Blackmon was frequently the target.

Henne made Blackmon into a bit of a target hog. Gabbert, not so much. Target hogs are almost always good to chase. Was it because Blackmon improved as the season wore on, the fact that Shorts missed some time late, or because Henne was better than BG? Probably a combination of everything. Chicken or the egg, etc.

Point being, if Henne gets in there I don't think it should necessarily be viewed as a negative for Blackmon. He's willing to chuck it up and attempt to let WRs make a play, even when he shouldn't, and Blackmon is a big enough body with good enough hands to win those 50/50 shots his fair share.

He's an easy WR3 for me if he stays healthy/sober. If he comes back super motivated and one of Henne/Gabbert is actually playing well top end WR2 production, on a PPG basis, wouldn't be totally out of the question.
Yeah, the problem with Gabbert, even if he's progressed is that he makes the receiving situation more unpredictable. If Henne was going into the season as the starter I'd feel more comfortable labeling both Shorts and Blackmon WR2s simply because they proved to be WR2s (Blackmon in the 2nd half) on a PPG basis last year with him under center.

 
Henne threw the ball 38.4 times per game for the last 7 games. Blackmon was targeted 10.3 times per game those last 7 games, so about 27%.

I personally don't expect Jax to throw the ball 38 times a game, but it is not unheard of for a top WR to get 30% of the targets so if Blackmon really is in shape, he could easily continue to get 10 targets per game even with Gabbert and a more run oriented offense. But hey, for where he's being drafted (or was drafted) even 8 targets a game is really, really nice. If he catches just half of those targets he's probably on a 1000 yard pace which should be easy WR3 territory unless he pull a Hartline and avoids touchdowns.

Actually Hartline's 131-71-1083-1 stat line was good for WR35 in 0ppr. You guys should feel good about Blackmon even if you reached for him.

 
He came in out of shape last year after the hold out, and was much better the latter half of the season. Supposedly he's lost weight, is quicker, and looks like the real beast of that receiving corp. I sort of agree with Ninja's placing, but he could better that, making him a solid WR2 and a great WR3. I think he'll be in my lineup as either WR3 or flex after week 4.
Yeah, he got in much better shape once they put henne in for gabbert

 
I love him when he comes back, I think top 12 isn't out of the question at all, but he also probably has a lower floor than some other guys in his vicinity.

 
I own Shorts and Blackmon.

If Shorts blows up in the first few weeks do you use him as trade bait or roll with him?

 
I own Shorts and Blackmon.

If Shorts blows up in the first few weeks do you use him as trade bait or roll with him?
I think you make a trade if you can, but unless other managers are totally oblivious they are going to realize he has diminished value when Blackmon returns. So basically you do what you should always do... take advantage of someone if you can. If not, you're probably forced to send Shorts to the bench and start Blackmon.

 

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