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As we've discussed in the past, Horn was not featured in KC, he got his first opportunity to play when he signed with New Orleans. We're talking about what happens to someone who is already an established starter in a system and changes teams, Horn need not apply.
Yup - 5-600/year the year before he went to the Saints and then 12-1300/year once there.I am sure to get sucked in several times, but my position is clear - WR transfer to a poor passing offense will not translate into top-5 WR production, which is where some deliberately ignorant opitmist will decide to take TO b/c they don't want to believe that Coles, SMoss, CJohn, and Ward are all significantly more likely to exceed his production simply because their team's scoring D is far worse than the Ravens'I think TO will have good games, and not so good games - he's going to go from every week starter to "I hope he gets off this week." There are 4-6 every week starters each year at WR, everyone else is "I hope he goes off."See: Reggie Wayne, Koren Robinson, and Andre Johnson as the #20/21 overall WRs last year, and Chris Chambers coming in as the #13 WR, best WR2 to have, and he didn't even get 1G in yards.
No, I wouldn't have, because I didn't know enough about Delhomme to say anything one way or other. At times like that, I say nothing.I watched several of Boller's games last year, and he was pretty poor at passing. Didn't know where receivers were, didn't throw the ball particulary close to them a good bit of the time. Did you see something different? Boller's Stats
Agreed regarding Boldin. Also, I see it as the big 3 (Moss, Harry, Holt) with CJ a very close 4th. However, given that Palmer's been named the starter I've knocked him slightly down. At the same time, C. Johnson is still my #4 but much closer to the Ward's and Cole's of the world.
I think you're taking the wrong stance on this. I expect Owens to blow up early in the season, then fall apart. Teams are still going to be looking to stop Jamal, and Billick's going to be trying out his new toy. I'd also expect him to come to camp in better shape than ever with Ray Lewis riding him. The first week or two of the season will be TO time.
This is the one thing folks are forgetting about Billick. He has been waiting for years to become the offensive genius he once was. Getting a player like Owens may entice him to really open up the offensive attack to something similar to the offense he ran while in Minnesota.This conservative gameplan has never seemed to sit very well with the HC.
agree completely... then again chad johnson is a darling of this board.i have them both, and i see them both as serious wildcards right now.we shall see.Why? He wasn't top-10 in 2003 under standard performance scoring and that was with a QB capable of throwing 3G/25 and a system designed to go upfield - the Ravens, on the other hand, are happy to get 17 points in a game.I'll be more shocked if he is able to catch 10 TDs for the Ravens than him being out of the top-10.
are we talking about garcia?most of his long completions were due to owens' legs more than his rag-arm.Isn't this coming from the same man who said the exact same thing about David Boston last year? It was either you or Wood - I was looking for your pieces on him on the FBGuys' site and couldn't find it, but one of you twop was convinced Boston would "buck the trend" of WRs changing teams.TO is going into a similar situation in Baltimre as Boston went to in SD. TO is a better player than Boston, but I have no illusions that he will buck this very consistent trend in WRs changing teams.
yes, yes, i have him too and i know all this. point is, he's changing QBs (a guy who's never thrown a regular season pass, mind you) and no one seems concerned at all with a drop in production (some are ranking him #3 overall). yet owens, a more talented and proven receiver with much more of a resume' is being made a draft day pariah because of a change in teams/QBs. just seems a little odd to me. :wacko:
I am concerned about CJohn, too - but, I have more faith in Palmer working into the existing system and finding CJohn downfield than I am in TO entering Baltimore and suddenly turning Baltimore into a 500 passes a year team.CJohn's line might take a small tick downward per game, but I could see TO having extremely erratic production.In short, between these two, while CJohn's weekly averages MIGHT drop a bit, I think he will still have fairly consistent production week to week - as he did last year. Meanwhile, TO will get you 20 points one week and 2 the next.
I was pretty high on David Boston early in the 2003 preseason. I fell in love with his natural ability and thought he would do a good job for the Chargers. However as the preseason wore on I realized that Boston wasn't in the right frame of mind to excel this season and he ended up my 17th ranked receiver(receiver rankings) in our final expert WR ranking poll. That was the lowest ranking for Boston out of the 14 rankings.Actually both myself and Jason Wood had him pretty low (Wood had him 13th).http://www.footballguys.com/03wrrank1.cfmHowever even if I did have Boston ranked top five last season, that wouldn't mean my thoughts on Owens aren't accurate. I would say the biggest difference between Owens and Boston is pretty simple. Owens wants to be the best player on the field while Boston appears to want to only LOOK the best on the field. Say what you want about Owens (and I have), his drive and passion to be the best in the league are undeniable.
When you consider that Billick was known as an offensive guru in Minnesota and never completely appears satisified with the conservative game plan in Baltimore, it doesn't seem a total stretch to expect a more open offense this year.On the flip side, the Bengals have a gifted running back in Rudy and a solid offensive line. I could definitely see them passing less and pounding the ball more in 2004.
This is huge. Other things (history of WRs changing teams, TO's recent history) are important, but I think this is the most overlooked factor.I didn't see the full numbers posted, so let's take a look. Here are Baltimore's passing numbers from last season (from pro-football-reference.com):218 completions - 32nd (last) in NFL414 attempts - 32nd (last)2517 yards - 32nd (last)6.08 ypa - 27th16 TDs - 27th19 interceptions - 23rdUgly. Now look at the receiving breakdown:RBs - 55/399/0 (Lewis 26/205/0)TEs - 76/852/6 (Heap 57/693/3)WRs - 85/1265/9 (Taylor 39/632/3)For the TO supporters:- Are you expecting the RBs to get less than 400 yards? Not likely.- Are you expecting a dropoff in TE production? Not likely, given they have one of the best. If anything, I think TO's presence will help Heap rebound back towards his numbers from 2002 (68/836/6).- Are you expecting Baltimore's other WRs to get nothing? Or for Baltimore to suddenly throw an extra 1000 yards to their WRs? Note that under Billick, Baltimore has had a WR break 1000 yards 2 times in 5 seasons, with a high of 1105 yards, in 1999 (before Lewis) and 2001 (Lewis was injured and missed the season). With Lewis, the best WR season has been 61/869/6 from Travis Taylor in 2002.You're bucking a lot of trends and evidence if you think TO will be in the top 10. I definitely don't expect him to be.
How do you know Heap won't be the crutch? As you say, Owens is more of a threat to take one to the house on any given play. Isn't it more likely he will draw the safety help rather than Heap, who faced the extra attention last season?As someone has posted in this thread, top WRs typically don't have strong complementary WR2s. Well, Heap essentially is that.
I can see what I can dig up, but the basic situation involves:- Stud WR going to a new team- Stud WR going to the WORST rated passing team in the league- Team with a new or very inexperienced QBI don't even have to look it up to tell you that the sample size will not really tell us much of anything, because I doubt there will be 5 examples to look at.I think we may have to evaluate how stud WR do with "new" or "other" QB overall (which would also apply to Chad Johnson).Here are T.O's numbers over his career for the first 4 games of the season:97: 7-166-198: 13-228-199: 17-217-300: 23-328-401: 24-300-302: 18-231-2aging Anarchy:What's the success rate for eilte WRs the year that his QB changes? How about when the new QB has no experience?
I think one major problem with this comparison is that CJohnson is a far better receiver than Derrick Alexander ever was.
Anarchy,Actually the best candidate IMHO is David Boston.
Jason - I think Anarchy is doing two comparison points in this thread - one is TO, with the switching of teams component, and the other is Chad Johnson, where it's "only" the QB switch.I remain much more leery of TO than Chad - of course, once I see Palmer in action in preseason, I might change my tune!
Jason -I have broken down things to either:- TO's situation (WR switching teams AND the team switching QB AND team inserting a newbie QB)--this will obviously be a very small sample size- Chad Johnson's situation (top WR on a team switching QB and hopefully inserting a rookie QB)Basically, I am not randomly looking for situations that might have similarities "in passing."In terms of Boston, I think you are right in the overall nature and similarities of the situation.Arizona's recent WR history likely merits in own thread, but I have my concerns about their WR track record in recent years:Boston: 1 good year, 1 great year, followed by 2 mediocre years.RMoore: 2 good years, 1 great year, and 7 mediocre years.FSanders, 2 good years, 0 great years, and 6 medicore years.Now comes Boldin, and based on his predacessors, you really have to wonder why Arizona can produce good seasons from their WR but somehow they can't manage to sustain any momentum and devlop that into long-term careers.
