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I was going to bring that up, but I thought it would make my post more confusing. Yes, Owens has started slow in the past. But I think the reasons are 1) Mooch wanting to establish the run early and calling plays super conservatively, and 2) Owens getting in better shape as the season progressed. I can't imagine Owens coming into camp in poor shape (Ray) and I can't imagine Billick not using his new receiver early and often. So I see Owens as starting out strong early.
I would draft Boldin over Owens if they were both available in the late fourth/early fifth, which is where I expect Boldin to go. But Owens will be taken long before that.
Here's the key to whether your theory works out (or has a chance to work out), will Ozzie do the right thing and give TO an extension that's close to what he would've gotten as a free agent or via the Eagles? If that answer is YES, I agree that TO could be a good camper and would at least warrant consideration in the top 10, but otherwise, he's not.But the point many of us have really tried to make is that someone in virtually every league will value TO in the top 3-5 as they always have, and he'll be gone if you aren't willing to take him at that range. And if that's the case, he won't be on any of my teams.
The original post, admittedly, requested a top-WR list down to TO.The thread has evolved well beyond that.IMO, in terms of talent alone, TO is a top-3 WR physical specimen who knows the game and must be planned for - even doubled - every time he takes the field.In terms of opportunity, however, I have serious doubts - you mentioned Boldin, and I believe his opp is in question, too with the move to SE.And, value - TO will be the least valuable WR on the board - as Jason mentioned, someone in your league will probably value him in the top 3 to 5 WRs, will take him very early, and will solve any problem of having to decide between him and Boldin, or any other receiver, even if you happen to have the other receiver ranked higher.Finally, my prediction for his success is 4 or 5 insane games of 100+ yards and/or multiple TDs. The rest of his games will be radically inconsistent, with a season of his lowest catch numbers in 5 years. This is especially true b/c Baltimore is not a "shootout" or "comeback" type of team - which seems to be one of the major factors for creating top-5 WRs - porous scoring defense. The Ravens do not have a porous scoring defense.
Historically at least, things don't look as gloomy for Chad Johnson as I originally thought.Averaging the guys in CJ's catagory (and leaving out Mushin, who was hurt in year 2), we have:
That's two WRs from each team experiencing the exact same effect from the same QB change and the two receivers from each of the teams (Minn from George>C-Pepp & SF from Young>Garcia) had either very similar declines (in the case of Rice/TO) or no decline (Moss/Carter).I think we can ALL acknoweldge that these four WRs are four of the best WRs of all time, and so maybe it is no surprise that the QB change for them was negligible since they should be able to function under any QB.While this may not be clear cut, IMO: if you believe that CJohn is a really good receiver, the QB change to Palmer should have little effect. If you believe he had a synergy with Kitna which artificially augmented his 2nd half 2002 and 2003 numbers, by all means downgrade CJohn.IMO, CJohn has it all - the talent and the bravado that all the best WRs have - and he backs up his words with on field action. Finally, he can be doubled all game and still get his numbers. I think CJohn will be fine under Palmer, even if the pass offense drops from Kitna's 3600 yards/26 TDs down to, say, 3000 yards/20 TDs. I think CJohn can still get 80/1300/8 as a minimum - which are solid WR1 numbers - and he has a ceiling well above that if Palmer is able to come closer to Kitna's numbers.
