Where would you rank the rookies right now? (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

Lets just assume that you were going to have a rookie only draft right now. In what order would you take the rookie players?

I was looking back on miqws list that sampled several different ranking sources before the combine, post combine but before the NFL draft and after the NFL draft. 

Here are those results:

Delta Postdraft Predraft Precombine Player Pos Team Count Average(excluding min max) SD (exclude min. max)
0    1    1    1    Barkley, Saquon    RB    NYG    43    1.00    0.00
0    2    2    2    Guice, Derrius    RB    Was    43    2.93    1.42
6    3    9    9    Penny, Rashaad    RB    Sea    43    4.76    2.35
-1    4    4    3    Michel, Sony    RB    NE    43    5.20    2.23
2    5    3    7    Chubb, Nick     RB    Cle    43    5.24    2.19
0    6    6    6    Jones, Ronald    RB    USC    43    6.02    2.95
5    7    8    12    Moore, D.J.     WR    Car    43    7.44    2.66
7    8    11    15    Freeman, Royce    RB    Den    42    7.98    2.72
-4    9    7    5    Ridley, Calvin    WR    Atl    43    8.49    2.52
-6    10    5    4    Sutton, Court.    WR    Den    43    10.83    3.45
0    11    13    11    Johnson, Kerr.    RB    Det    42    11.25    3.86
-2    12    12    10    Kirk, Christian    WR    Ari    43    12.10    2.65
1    13    14    14    Gallup, Michael    WR    Dal    43    14.51    4.02
-6    14    10    8    Washington, J.    WR    Pit    43    15.10    3.21
3    15    15    18    Miller, Anthony    WR    Chi    43    15.32    3.47
8    16    23    24    Mayfield, Baker    QB    Cle    41    18.36    4.02
22    17    22    39    Gesicki, Mike    TE    Mia    40    20.24    6.15
2    18    19    20    Rosen, Josh     QB    Ari    42    20.43    4.86
12    19    20    31    Jackson, Lamar    QB    Bal    41    20.72    4.65
20    20    29    40    Pettis, Dante    WR    SF    39    21.27    6.38
5    21    25    26    Darnold, Sam    QB    NYJ    41    21.67    5.15
1    22    18    23    Goedert, Dallas    TE    Phi    41    22.62    5.28
18    23    21    41    Chark, D.J.     WR    Jac    41    23.44    5.00
17    24    35    41    Hines, Nyheim    RB    Ind    39    25.16    5.95
-9    25    16    16    St. Brown, Eq.     WR    GB    37    25.66    5.88
12    26    40    38    Smith, Tre'Quan    WR    NO    38    25.83    6.52
14    27    41    41    Hurst, Hayden    TE    Bal    41    26.03    5.80
-1    28    31    27    Ballage, Kalen    RB    Mia    42    27.25    5.92
12    29    30    41    Callaway, Ant.     WR    Cle    31    27.55    6.79
-13    30    17    17    Kelly, John     RB    LAR    32    28.47    6.30
-1    31    36    30    Allen, Josh     QB    Buf    29    29.15    5.19
-11    32    28    21    Cain, Deon      WR    Ind    38    29.44    6.15
-5    33    34    28    Hamilton, DaeS.    WR    Den    22    30.10    4.73
-15    34    26    19    Walton, Mark    RB    Cin    36    30.74    5.15
6    35    41    41    Moore, J'Mon    WR    GB    17    32.07    4.18
-14    36    27    22    Andrews, Mark    TE    Bal    34    32.50    5.71
4    37    41    41    Wilkins, Jordan    RB    Ind    13    32.55    3.42
-3    38    41    35    Smith, Ito      RB    Atl    11    32.67    5.15
2    39    39    41    Coutee, Keke    WR    Hou    28    32.96    5.68
-27    40    24    13    Tate, Auden     WR    Cin    19    33.35    3.55


Sorry the code looks ugly for people reading on phones. Overall it makes the list that combines three different rankings line up better.

 

[Biabreakable]

Here is the last poll I started on rookies for voters in the SP.

They came out like this:

Results

Standard

Saquon Barkley 79.6% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 52.7% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 36.5% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 65.2% with 51 votes

Ronald Jones 43.5% with 53 votes

Sony Michel 49% with 59 votes

Royce Freeman 44% with 54 votes

Kerryon Johnson 46% with 46 votes

DJ Moore 52.6% with 41 votes

Calvin Ridley 31.6% with 41 votes

Courtland Sutton 25.6% with 45 votes

Christian Kirk 44.1% with 39 votes 

Anthony Miller 28.6% with 46 votes

Michael Gallup 41.7% with 39 votes

James Washington 25.7% with 38 votes

Lamar Jackson 33.3% with 36 votes

Baker Mayfield 17.7% at 39 votes

Josh Rosen 20.7% with 35 votes

Mike Gesicki 28.7% with 41 votes

Nyheim Hines 17.7% with 35 votes

PPR

Saquon Barkley 95.5% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 43.6% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 41.9% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 43.5% with 51 votes

Ronald Jones 47.8% with 53 votes

Sony Michel 70.6% with 59 votes

DJ Moore 48% with 54 votes

Kerryon Johnson 29.7% with 46 votes

Royce Freeman 57.9% with 41 votes

Calvin Ridley 55.3% with 41 votes

Courtland Sutton 39.5% with 45 votes

Christian Kirk 61.8% with 39 votes 

Anthony Miller 38.1% with 46 votes

Michael Gallup 58.3% with 39 votes

James Washington 31.4% with 38 votes

Mike Gesicki 26.5% with 39 votes

Lamar Jackson 30% with 36 votes

Nyheim Hines 24.1% with 35 votes

Dante Pettis 32.4% with 41 votes

Baker Mayfield 29.4% with 35 votes

2QB Leagues

Saquon Barkley 69.4% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 25.5% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 23% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 19.6% with 51 votes

Baker Mayfield 18.6% with 53 votes

Lamar Jackson 11.8% with 59 votes

Josh Rosen 22% with 54 votes

Ronald Jones 24.3% with 46 votes

Sam Darnold 24.7% with 41 votes

Sony Michel 31.6% with 41 votes

DJ Moore 14% with 45 votes (Tie with Josh Allen broken based on miqws list)

Royce Freeman 29.4% with 39 votes (Curious that support for Allen waned)

Calvin Ridley 16.7% with 46 votes

Kerryon Johnson 23% with 39 votes

Josh Allen 31.4% with 38 votes

Courtland Sutton 29.4% with 39 votes

Christian Kirk 33.3% with 36 votes

Anthony Miller 31% with 35 votes

Michael Gallup 27% with 41 votes

James Washington 23.5% with 35 votes

TE Premium Leagues

Saquon Barkley 75.5% with 50 votes

Derrius Guice 38.2% with 63 votes

Rashaad Penny 41.9% with 79 votes

Nick Chubb 27.5% with 51 votes

Sony Michel 26% with 53 votes

Ronald Jones 41.1% with 59 votes

DJ Moore 24% with 54 votes

Kerryon Johnson 27% with 46 votes

Royce Freeman 39.5% with 41 votes

Mike Gesicki  23.7% with 41 votes

Christian Kirk 16.7% with 45 votes

Dallas Goedert 17.7% with 39 votes

Calvin Ridley 21.4% with 46 votes

Courtland Sutton 25% with 39 votes

Hayden Hurst 20% with 38 votes

Anthony Miller 20.6% with 39 votes

Michael Gallup 23.3% with 36 votes

Lamar Jackson 27.6% with 35 votes

Josh Rosen 16.2% with 41 votes (tie broken based on miqws list)

James Washington 20.6% with 35 votes

I didn't get enough votes to decide the last poll.

 

[EBF]

Loosely:

Pro Bowler

RB Saquon Barkley

Starter

QB Baker Mayfield

RB Nick Chubb

RB Derrius Guice

WR DJ Moore

TE Hayden Hurst

Potential Starter

QB Sam Darnold

QB Josh Rosen

QB Lamar Jackson

RB Rashaad Penny

RB Kerryon Johnson+

RB Royce Freeman

RB Sony Michel

RB Ronald Jones

WR Calvin Ridley+

WR Christian Kirk+

WR Michael Gallup

WR Courtland Sutton

WR Antonio Callaway

WR James Washington

WR Dante Pettis

WR Anthony Miller

TE Mark Andrews+

TE Ian Thomas

TE Will Dissly

TE Mike Gesicki

TE Dallas Goedert

TE Jordan Akins

I'd put everyone else in the flyer category.

My third tier is huge, but within that group there are guys who have flashed early and guys who are slipping. I put a + sign next to the guys who are closest to jumping up into a higher tier. You don't want to  overreact too much and though and just because people like Kerryon, Dissly, and Ridley have had big weeks early in their careers doesn't necessarily mean you take them over a Gallup, Gesicki, or Penny yet.

 

[Football Jones]

I may get into the posting rankings thing in the offseason. I’ve had quite a few requests & there’s something to be said for sharing.

Admittidly, I haven’t for selfish reasons. I’m in competitive leagues whose members post here. It wouldn’t necessarily be in my best interests to post rankings, but I’m seriously considering it.

I do appreciate guys like @Biabreakable & @EBF as well as others that don’t immediately come to mind who post their rankings. :thumbsup:

 

[Hilts]

We're needing some more Lindsay love in here. 

 

[Interseptopus]

We're needing some more Lindsay love in here. 

It's tough to judge after just 4 games. so many rookies get an incomplete. I would love to revisit this at week 8. my list would still look an awful lot like the SP poll for PPR minus a huge downgrade for a few RBs

 

[Hilts]

It's tough to judge after just 4 games. so many rookies get an incomplete. I would love to revisit this at week 8. my list would still look an awful lot like the SP poll for PPR minus a huge downgrade for a few RBs

I absolutely agree. But if EBF is listing Ronald Jones as a potential starter, I think Lindsay needs to be mentioned in the same tier at the very least. 

There are questions about how well he'll hold up. It is too soon to really start changing all our rankings THAT much after only a month. But it's hard to completely dismiss what he's done thus far. He has to be considered as more than some nobody flier at this point. 

 

[Biabreakable]

We're needing some more Lindsay love in here. 

I have been very impressed with Lindsay from what I have seen of him so far. To me he is Denvers best RB and Freeman/Booker are decent RB themselves, just not as dynamic as what I have seen from Lindsay.

I wasn't even aware of him though, so he didn't make my rankings, he also wasn't on miqws top 50 list which I was using to polulate the polls. No one recommended Lindsay be added to the polls, so he wasn't an option.

From what I have seen of him though, I would put him in Freemans spot (10th) and drop Freeman down quite a bit. 

 

[-OZ-]

Starter

RB Nick Chubb

RB Derrius Guice

You might be right, but what have Chubb and guice shown to be more than potential starters?

I'd probably put Lindsey as a starter above either, so far.

 

[EBF]

You might be right, but what have Chubb and guice shown to be more than potential starters?

I'd probably put Lindsey as a starter above either, so far.

Guice is based on college tape/draft slot. That's all we have for him atm.

Chubb has actually looked a little less impressive than I expected out of college, but he hasn't been bad. He's been consistently pretty good throughout his preseason and regular season carries. Looks like a future 1000 yard guy in the NFL, but not a top flight starter. He has shown more so far than Penny, Freeman, Michel, or Jones. I like him more than Kerryon as well. If he were in Detroit, he'd be the starting RB. Hyde is a decent player though and better than any back on Seattle, Denver, NE, TB, or Detroit. It's a bigger obstacle to short-term relevance.

This rookie RB class has stumbled out of the gate. Penny, Freeman, and Jones haven't seized their opportunity. They walked into what looked like probable starting roles out of the draft and are being beaten out by some pretty suspect guys. A guy like Guice benefits from that in rankings because while they're falling based on lack of performance, he's holding steady on the sidelines.

Lindsay has shown some talent. Belongs in the conversation for sure and would be hard to pass on for someone like RoJo who looks like a DOA bust. His burst jumps off the screen. On the other hand, he's under 5'8" and weighs about 185 pounds. I don't put that much emphasis on height/weight when I look at RBs these days, but that's a tiny back. I don't see a guy that size lasting as a high volume back. So while he was a good waiver find, I'm leaning towards him never being more than a complementary guy. I don't think he's a guy who will be prominent in dynasty RB conversations 2-3 years from now. I think he's more like a Tarik Cohen, Branden Oliver, Quentin Griffin kind of guy who is going to flash early and then sort of regress into either inconsistent committee stats or outright irrelevance.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Bump Goedert, Lindsay, Baker, Kerryon, Dissly, Washington. Also bump Allen, Hines.

Lower Jones, Penny, Guice.

hold on most everyone else. 

 

[IHEARTFF]

Bump Calloway too. 

 

[Elevencents]

Dissly will be forgotten by week 10. Guice is holding steady because they did not bring in anyone more than as a placeholder for this year. All signs point to him sliding right back on top of the depth chart next year - assuming no set backs. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

This is exactly why I wanted the discussion opened about overvaluing the RBs and undevaluing the WRs this year.  There’s going to be a lot of buyers’ remorse by the time this all shakes out.

 

[jmo87usc]

Dissly will be forgotten by week 10. Guice is holding steady because they did not bring in anyone more than as a placeholder for this year. All signs point to him sliding right back on top of the depth chart next year - assuming no set backs. 

Curious why you feel that way?  I'm not saying I disagree, but I feel like he has earned the trust of RW already in crucial situations and I think blocking is a strong point for him which would keep him on the field.  I'm not too in tune with the Seahawks.  Is Vannette the superior talent?

 

[cheese]

Curious why you feel that way?  I'm not saying I disagree, but I feel like he has earned the trust of RW already in crucial situations and I think blocking is a strong point for him which would keep him on the field.  I'm not too in tune with the Seahawks.  Is Vannette the superior talent?

I don’t think it’s better or worse but a lot of teams that use so many 2TE sets have one that is a better blocker and the other runs more routes. For example, Nick O’Leary was almost constantly on the field last year in Buffalo and he was a decent (maybe even good) player. He was fantasy football irrelevant. I won’t be surprised if that’s where Seattle is heading , but if Dissly runs more routes than Vannett the next 2 or 3 weeks, I’m open to changing my mind. 

 

[fredsavage]

IMO Ridley should be the first off the board after Barkley, with slight consideration for Kerryon. I will almost always give the nod to a receiver over a similar talent at RB.

 

[hagmania]

Yeah, I think Ridley is 2 to Saquon's 1.

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

How are we feeling about this after another week? Sony looked good, Kerryon got a TD but not the yardage and Patricia says his workload isn't increasing, Penny did nothing again, Jones finally got on the field. Anyone have a ranking for RB's for say the rest of this year and maybe a 3 year window?

 

[ghostguy123]

I am just glad I traded a few mid-high rookie picks this year while they were worth something good.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Fun exercise, I guess I'll go ahead and give it a shot.  Assuming PPR...

1) Barkley
________________

2) Chubb
3) Kerryon
4) Guice
5) Sony

________________

6) Ridley
7) Sutton

_________________

8) Freeman
9) Lindsay
10) Penny
11) Moore

_________________

12) Kirk
13) RoJo
14) Hines
15) Gesicki
16) Goedert
17) Baker
18) Pettis
19) Coutee
 

 

[Boone22]

1. Barkley
   
2. Sony
   
3. Chubb
   
4. kerryon
   
5. Ridley
   
6. Guice
   
7. Penny
   
8. Kirk
   
9. Sutton
   
10. Moore
    
11. Miller
    
12. Lindsay
    
13. Coutee
    
14. Freeman
    
15. Ronny Jones
    
16. Hurst
    
17. James Washington
    
18. Pettis
    
19. Tre’Quan Smith
    
20. Gallup
    
21. Gesicki
    
22. Goedert
    
23. Mayfield
    
24. Lamar Jackson
    
25. D Hamilton
    
26. Dissly
    
27. Darnold/Rosen
    
28. Josh Allen
    

 

[Bojang0301]

Do people really think they found some outlier gem in Dissly? Puzzling. I get he strung together a nice game and some targets while healthy but his college career and physical measurables are bad. I wouldn’t have even placed him on my IR in dynasty. 

 

[smbkrypt24]

1. Barkley
   
2. Sony
   
3. Chubb
   
4. kerryon
   
5. Ridley
   
6. Guice
   
7. Penny
   
8. Kirk
   
9. Sutton
   
10. Moore
    
11. Miller
    
12. Lindsay
    
13. Coutee
    
14. Freeman
    
15. Ronny Jones
    
16. Hurst
    
17. James Washington
    
18. Pettis
    
19. Tre’Quan Smith
    
20. Gallup
    
21. Gesicki
    
22. Goedert
    
23. Mayfield
    
24. Lamar Jackson
    
25. D Hamilton
    
26. Dissly
    
27. Darnold/Rosen
    
28. Josh Allen
    

No Hines anywhere in your top 29?

 

[Boone22]

No Hines anywhere in your top 29?

Oversight on my part but with Mack back I don’t see him as a rookie I’m very excited about.  I’d probably slot him in somewhere around 18-20 and move everyone below that down one. 

 

[electric Ape]

1. Barkley
   
2. Sony
   
3. Chubb
   
4. kerryon
   
5. Ridley
   
6. Guice
   
7. Penny
   
8. Kirk
   
9. Sutton
   
10. Moore
    
11. Miller
    
12. Lindsay
    
13. Coutee
    
14. Freeman
    
15. Ronny Jones
    
16. Hurst
    
17. James Washington
    
18. Pettis
    
19. Tre’Quan Smith
    
20. Gallup
    
21. Gesicki
    
22. Goedert
    
23. Mayfield
    
24. Lamar Jackson
    
25. D Hamilton
    
26. Dissly
    
27. Darnold/Rosen
    
28. Josh Allen
    

Guice is going to end up much higher. It's the out of sight, out of mind effect. From a raw football ability standpoint the only players on that list who can touch him are Saquon and Chubb (pre-injury).

 

[matttyl]

Guice is going to end up much higher. It's the out of sight, out of mind effect. From a raw football ability standpoint the only players on that list who can touch him are Saquon and Chubb (pre-injury).

While possilby true, those two (and everyone else on that list) have one clear advantage - an extra half a season right now.  A bird in the hand and all that.  The 2019 Guice could be like the 2018 Dalvin Cook, too.

 

[mnmplayer]

Guice is going to end up much higher. It's the out of sight, out of mind effect. From a raw football ability standpoint the only players on that list who can touch him are Saquon and Chubb (pre-injury).

Guice pre-injury = Guice post injury? Some risk there. Chubb is almost 3 years removed from his injury and will have a season of experience under his belt. Its too bad all three of these guys were without any major injury as this would be the best RB class (and still might be) in some time. I mean there are 5 guys already showing they can be RB1 (adding in KJ/Sony with these other 3). Barkley is unreal already elite. Sony/Chubb/KJ clear RB15+ potential and then theirs Guice. 

 

[electric Ape]

Guice pre-injury = Guice post injury? Some risk there. Chubb is almost 3 years removed from his injury and will have a season of experience under his belt. Its too bad all three of these guys were without any major injury as this would be the best RB class (and still might be) in some time. I mean there are 5 guys already showing they can be RB1 (adding in KJ/Sony with these other 3). Barkley is unreal already elite. Sony/Chubb/KJ clear RB15+ potential and then theirs Guice. 

I take you guys' points. I guess it mainly comes down to talent evaluation. I think Guice is a superior player and his talent advantage will win out over time. 

With respect to injury concerns, I agree that Guice carries risk. But I wouldn't compare Guice's clean ACL tear in the preseason to Chubb's catastrophic knee injury, Chubb's injury was a complete horror show 

 

[wikkidpissah]

1. Barkley
   
2. Sony
   
3. Chubb
   
4. kerryon
   
5. Ridley
   
6. Guice
   
7. Penny
   
8. Kirk
   
9. Sutton
   
10. Moore
    
11. Miller
    
12. Lindsay
    
13. Coutee
    
14. Freeman
    
15. Ronny Jones
    
16. Hurst
    
17. James Washington
    
18. Pettis
    
19. Tre’Quan Smith
    
20. Gallup
    
21. Gesicki
    
22. Goedert
    
23. Mayfield
    
24. Lamar Jackson
    
25. D Hamilton
    
26. Dissly
    
27. Darnold/Rosen
    
28. Josh Allen
    

dynasty, i move sutton & tre'quan up significantly and start my qbs in the early teens. good list, tho