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Which Draft Slot Do You Want? (Redraft, 2024) (1 Viewer)

Ignoratio Elenchi

Footballguy
I'm curious how folks are viewing this coming into drafting season. Imagine you're in a redraft league where you get to pick your draft slot (assume 10- 0r 12- team league, you can specify in your response if it's relevant to your answer).

Which draft slot do you want this year? 1.01 and get your #1 guy? Go back to back at the end of the first? Somewhere in the middle and try to land the last of the top tier?
 
Top three or bottom three. I hate drafting in the middle as my team always seems disjointed. I seem to always be reactive and fall into following the runs and never like my teams. I haven't looked at things enough yet to know if I want the top or the bottom but I think my initial gut feel is to be at the bottom of the draft this year.
 
Always #1. Aside from 2qb leagues, take the best RB off the board at #1 and construct your roster based on BPA after that.
I'm curious how folks are viewing this coming into drafting season. Imagine you're in a redraft league where you get to pick your draft slot (assume 10- 0r 12- team league, you can specify in your response if it's relevant to your answer).

Which draft slot do you want this year? 1.01 and get your #1 guy? Go back to back at the end of the first? Somewhere in the middle and try to land the last of the top tier?
s
 
I like the edges.

Probably can't find it but last year I looked up the positions I've drafted from in my main home league over the last 20 years.

After I posted it, the pitchforks came out. I've been incredibly lucky about getting Top 4 slots or 10-12.

Only 4 titles in the last 17 years so guess it doesn't actually help me as much as it should.
 
Always #1. Aside from 2qb leagues, take the best RB off the board at #1 and construct your roster based on BPA after that.
This is probably my choice too. You know you have your #1 locked in and still have your choice of any position BPA with your next two on the bend.
 
I like the edges.

Probably can't find it but last year I looked up the positions I've drafted from in my main home league over the last 20 years.

After I posted it, the pitchforks came out. I've been incredibly lucky about getting Top 4 slots or 10-12.

Only 4 titles in the last 17 years so guess it doesn't actually help me as much as it should.

Oh it's even worse than I remembered. No wonder people were mad lol.
  • 2005 1.02 LT2 (1st RB taken, RB2 finish)
  • 2006 1.12 Steven Jackson (9th RB taken, RB3 finish)
  • 2007 1.01 LT2 (1st RB taken, RB1 finish)
  • 2008 1.07 Joseph Addai (5th RB taken, RB38 finish)
  • 2009 1.02 Michael Turner (2nd RB taken, RB22 finish)

  • 2010 1.01 Chris Johnson (1st RB taken, RB8 finish)
  • 2011 1.02 Ray Rice (2nd RB taken, RB1 finish)
    that's crazy....never realized I had a top 2 pick 5 of the first 7 years

    2012 1.05 Aaron Rodgers (1st QB taken, QB2 finish)
  • 2013 1.09 LeSean McCoy (7th RB taken, RB3 finish)
  • 2014 1.01 Jamaal Charles (1st RB taken, RB7 finish)
    again!! third time drafting 1.01 over 8 seasons

  • 2015 1.04 Antonio Brown (1st WR taken, WR1 finish)
  • 2016 1.05 DeAndre Hopkins (4th WR taken, WR27 finish)
  • 2017 1.03 Le'Veon Bell (2nd RB taken, RB2 finish)
  • 2018 1.07 Antonio Brown (2nd WR taken, WR3 finish)
  • 2019 1.10 David Johnson (9th RB taken, RB37 finish)

  • 2020 1.07 Michael Thomas (1st WR taken, WR97 finish)
  • 2021 1.07 Davante Adams (1st WR taken, WR3 finish)
  • 2022 1.11 Stefon Diggs (4th WR taken, WR4 finish)
  • 2023 1.02 Ja'Marr Chase (2nd WR taken, WR11 finish)
Draft position over 19 years:

1st - 3
2nd - 4
3rd - 1

4th - 1
5th - 2
6th - never

7th - 4
8th - never
9th - 1

10th - 1
11th -1
12th - 1

7 times in the Top 2.
11 times in the Top 5
15 out of 19 Top 7.
4 on the back end (once each 9-10-11-12)
 
Always #1. Aside from 2qb leagues, take the best RB off the board at #1 and construct your roster based on BPA after that.
This is probably my choice too. You know you have your #1 locked in and still have your choice of any position BPA with your next two on the bend.

I see the appeal. Last year I faced this exact choice, took the #1 pick and drafted Christian McCaffrey. (A lot of other stuff went wrong and I finished near the bottom of the league.)

The issue I have with this approach is that there are usually a handful of guys in the very top tier that I'd be happy coming away with, and I often find that the next tier of players I'd be happy with ends somewhere in mid-late 2nd round. So if I have #1 I end up "overpaying" for a player I don't like that much more than the next 1-2 guys (and maybe would have gotten at 2 or 3 anyway), AND I'm missing out on that 1b kind of player I want to add in the 2nd. There are definitely fewer than 24 players every year I feel really good about rostering, so I always feel kind of crappy not even getting my second player until the 2/3 turn.
 
The funny thing is if you had asked my gut feeling I would've said I strongly prefer the ends (either top or bottom of the first round) to the middle, but in looking over my league history my best finishes have come in the years when I had a mid-round pick and by far my worst years were all when I was in the first 2 or last 2 picks of the 1st round. There's definitely some bad luck / variance to those results, but still it was eye-opening. I think I really do best when I'm in the middle, can (hopefully) grab the last of the top-tier guys and come back soon enough in the 2nd to get another guy without too many question marks before they're all gone. :shrug:
 
The funny thing is if you had asked my gut feeling I would've said I strongly prefer the ends (either top or bottom of the first round) to the middle, but in looking over my league history my best finishes have come in the years when I had a mid-round pick and by far my worst years were all when I was in the first 2 or last 2 picks of the 1st round. There's definitely some bad luck / variance to those results, but still it was eye-opening. I think I really do best when I'm in the middle, can (hopefully) grab the last of the top-tier guys and come back soon enough in the 2nd to get another guy without too many question marks before they're all gone. :shrug:

Interesting.

  • 2007 1.01 LT2 (1st RB taken, RB1 finish)
    Reggie Wayne 2.12, rookie Marshawn Lynch 6.12, Braylon Edwards (16 TDs) 7.01, Greg Jennings (12 TDs) 8.12, Kurt Warner off the WW (after Leinart broke his wrist), traded for Torry Holt

    Solid draft but the key was lucking out with Edwards + Jennings in the 8th/9th and the Warner pickup.

  • 2013 1.09 LeSean McCoy (7th RB taken, RB3 finish)
    A.J. Green 2.04, Vince Jackson 3.09, Marques Colston 4.04, rookie Gio Bernard 7.09, Josh Gordon 8.04, Julius Thomas (12 TDs) off WW.

    Smashed the 1stt four picks + 8th round pick Gordon had a historic year, Thomas ("it's so easy!!") was a gem. Only title streaming QBs weekly.

  • 2015 1.04 Antonio Brown (1st WR taken, WR1 finish)
    A.J. Green 2.09, Golden Tate 4.09, Travis Kelce 5.04, Blake Bortles (35 TDs) off the WW, Jordan Reed (11 TDs) off the WW, DeAngelo Williams (5 TDs in playoffs) off the WW, traded for Allen Robinson (1400-14), traded for rookie Todd Gurley

    Pretty strong team from start to finish, a lot went right that year.

  • 2023 1.02 Ja'Marr Chase (2nd WR taken, WR11 finish)
    Waddle 2.11, Olave 3.02, Breece 4.11, Burrow 5.02, Pacheco 7.02, Addison 8.11, Warren 9.02, Kincaid 10.11; Goff 11.01, Jayden Reed 17.01; traded Kincaid for LaPorta, Addison for Gibbs.

    Made some great trades.


  • Every title was with a WW QB (2x), streaming QBs, or the guy I drafted as a backup. Losing my QB to season ending injury is an annual tradition for me.

    Good trades and working the WW/FAAB have been a big part of it.

    Also takes luck; had a great team in 2021 but lost the championship bc my opponent picked up 4 TDs off the WW (Berrios and Scott.)
Back to this year, I'm good drafting from anywhere. But I would prefer Top 3 or the last 3 bc it's easier to plan the next pick in a snake draft.
 
I guess my favorite spot is probably 10th in a 12-teamer. After taking BPA at 1.10 and 2.3, I like to try to figure out if I can use teams 11 and 12's picks against them. For example, if they both take QB's at the 3/4 turn, I know I don't have to use my 5th, and can wait til my 6th to take one. And if 2 equal QB's are still on the board, and either 11 or 12 already has one, I can wait as well. This can work for TE's, etc. But it's very hard to do this from the middle spots, and I's not a huge fan of the top spots.
 
Last year, I'd have said #1 because CMC was the clear-cut top guy for me (he went as low as #3 in a few drafts I was in though) whereas this year, I either want #1, #2 or somewhere in the middle like 7, where I can still get someone like Jefferson or St. Brown and come back and still snag Henry or Barkley in round 2.
 
Always want 12 because that means I won.
2024- will be picking 11
2023- picked 12
2025- picked 11

I used to hate it because i thought (two years running) that round 2 is one of the flattest rounds in terms of not much of a drop off in projected points above replacement level players- and that round 3 has more of a dropoff than 4. Two years of building my board and feeling a little frustrated about that for drafting late. I haven't built my board yet so I don't know how I'm feeling this year. But every year some of those players at the turn end up being studs. Like Lamb and Chubb. Oh wait...

Injury luck- #1
Tier break

Drafting well #2
Successful waiver wire / bench management #3
Other types of luck- matchup/ lineups #4
 
I'm curious how folks are viewing this coming into drafting season. Imagine you're in a redraft league where you get to pick your draft slot (assume 10- 0r 12- team league, you can specify in your response if it's relevant to your answer).

Which draft slot do you want this year? 1.01 and get your #1 guy? Go back to back at the end of the first? Somewhere in the middle and try to land the last of the top tier?
I like top 3 or 11-12.
 
My best regular season was picking 12th and getting Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning the year they went off. Finished the season 13-1. Then for the playoffs, the Colts rested them and I was doomed.
 
#1 is always the choice if given. It takes a lot of the guess work out of the equation.

This year, the mid to late picks (5-10 range) are brutal. Those spots always seem to have players that can be had later.
I feel like I'm either reaching or just missed out.

1-4 and 11-12 seem solid.
 
#1 is always the choice if given. It takes a lot of the guess work out of the equation.
I think it adds to the guesswork. Now you have to guess who will stay healthy/perform out of the top picks. Many of my best picks were letting others decide the pick for me by weeding out the tier and leaving me the last guy in the tier. That is "taking the guesswork out of it". hahaha
 
Injury luck- #1
Tier break

Drafting well #2
Successful waiver wire / bench management #3
Other types of luck- matchup/ lineups #4
I would put schedule luck at #1 and injury luck a close #2. Then a huge tier break down to waiver wire/bench management followed by drafting well. The reason I have WW ahead of drafting well because no matter how well you draft injury luck is going to be a bigger factor in your success than the draft and if you get hit with the bad injury bug then the WW becomes a much bigger influence on your chances than who you drafted originally (since they are now injured).

To put a percentage on it:
  • Schedule Luck: 50%
  • Injury Luck: 45%
  • WW management: 3%
  • Draft: 2%
 
Top three or bottom three. I hate drafting in the middle as my team always seems disjointed. I seem to always be reactive and fall into following the runs and never like my teams. I haven't looked at things enough yet to know if I want the top or the bottom but I think my initial gut feel is to be at the bottom of the draft this year.
Same. I either want CMC, Lamb, or Hill, or I want 2 picks as close together as possible at the end of the 1st/early 2nd.
 
For the redraft mocks I have done I find if I get CMC either at #1 or #2 I hate the WRs left for me coming back. No way I can pass on CMC if I have first overall or if he somehow drops to #2. I find after taking CMC the RBs that are left at the end of the 2nd are much more appealing than going WR.

Those mocks are usually started with 2-3RBs and maybe I snag the top TE with my 3rd pick.

With so many people going heavy WR I have no problem scooping up all the good RBs who fall. If I go 3RBs to start (one in the flex) no problems there.

Last year I won my dynasty league with starting 4 RBs (2 in the flex). No one seems to want them but I'd gladly eat them up (if you can get the true starters).
 
I had the 11th pick early FFPC draft and took Saquan/Henry next turn about Josh Allen/Metcalf …. I also prefer to be more towards the back end of the draft to double dip
 
My main wish to have my picks be as varied as possible. If I was only doing a few drafts I'm not entirely sure what I'd prefer, but when I'm doing a a decent amount of drafts, especially in any one particular type of contest, my main wish is that the picks have some variance. Boring answer I know.

If I had to choose just one spot it's really hard because I can make cases, and I do, for each of the areas. Hard to know because you don't know how the draft will play out. When I draw my spots I usually am down on picks in the 8-10 range the most, but there is a way the draft could unfold where those could end up being the ideal spots.
 
I actually like 5-9.

Jefferson is going around 5 or 6 a lot of times (at least on Underdog).
You're in the ARSB range.
You can get Bijan/Breece who could either finish RB1 overall.

I like being towards the middle because you're never THAT far from your next pick. If someone slides in value, you're there to scoop it up. Someone else made the point about getting trapped with runs. I'm a big believer those runs lead to values. Sometimes you go further away from a position than you want, but you're reaping the rewards at another position.
 
I actually like 5-9.

Jefferson is going around 5 or 6 a lot of times (at least on Underdog).
You're in the ARSB range.
You can get Bijan/Breece who could either finish RB1 overall.

I like being towards the middle because you're never THAT far from your next pick. If someone slides in value, you're there to scoop it up. Someone else made the point about getting trapped with runs. I'm a big believer those runs lead to values. Sometimes you go further away from a position than you want, but you're reaping the rewards at another position.
Right now the middle seems to be pretty solid. Get a top WR and then either another elite WR that slips or a very good top RB. I feel like the middle (for the first 3 rounds) gives the most flexibility in your build.
 
I didn't realize it until after last year's draft, but in my main redraft, I have had the No. 5 pick every year for the past 5 years. Made the playoffs every year (one title). So I guess 5. :laugh:
 
At the end of wherever I see the most significant tier break to be, same as every year
This. And for me it's pick 8. 9-12 this year are really tough. At RB, you have CMC ( in his own tier), Bijan and Hall, and a dropoff to Taylor. At WR, the top tier is Lamb, Hill, Chase, Jefferson and St Brown, with a dropoff to AJ Brown. Out of the top 8, I really like the top 4 spots. I would much rather have CMC, Lamb, Hill, or Chase, and then pick from there.
 
10 team, I want the 5 or 6 spot
12 team I want the 6 or 7 spot

Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle
It's all I pray for every year for a draft slot
I can do anything from the middle, start runs, grab a guy a round ahead
The end spots put so much pressure and then 18-22 guys come off the baord before it comes around again,
 
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10 team, I want the 5 or 6 spot
12 team I want the 6 or 7 spot

Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle
It's al I pray for every year for a draft slot
I can do anything from the middle, start runs, grab a guy a round ahead
The end spots put so much pressure and then 18-22 guys come off the baord before it comes around again,
This.

Used to think I liked the front or back of the draft order for the reasons already mentioned, but I like the teams I’ve built from the middle more cuz I can adjust easier and have more flexibility on how I build my team.

ETA: that said, I’m only in ONE 12 team redraft serpentine league anymore, so my data points are dwindling. (Granted, this one league is 28 years of data points!)
 
Used to think I liked the front or back of the draft order for the reasons already mentioned, but I like the teams I’ve built from the middle more cuz I can adjust easier and have more flexibility on how I build my team.
I am the exact opposite. I always feel my teams from the middle are disjointed and that I have no flexibility from the middle. The ends allow me to plan picks better and make a more cohesive team. Just interesting how we each feel our teams are the exact opposite from the spots. I like it.
 
I can do anything from the middle, start runs, grab a guy a round ahead
I actually feel the opposite. Being in the middle I always feel like the runs are dictated to me and then I have to join in and get forced into picks I am not happy with. Where by being on the end I have to be ahead of the runs and take guys I really want a bit early to make sure I get them. It allows me to plan better and start runs rather than always be reacting to them.

Interesting to have such opposite feels for the different spots. It's why I really am a firm believer of allowing owners to choose their draft slots rather than get stuck with whatever number they pick out of a hat.
 
10 team, I want the 5 or 6 spot
12 team I want the 6 or 7 spot

Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle
It's al I pray for every year for a draft slot
I can do anything from the middle, start runs, grab a guy a round ahead
The end spots put so much pressure and then 18-22 guys come off the baord before it comes around again,
This.

Used to think I liked the front or back of the draft order for the reasons already mentioned, but I like the teams I’ve built from the middle more cuz I can adjust easier and have more flexibility on how I build my team.

ETA: that said, I’m only in ONE 12 team redraft serpentine league anymore, so my data points are dwindling. (Granted, this one league is 28 years of data points!)
If you put players into tiers, seems like its much easier to figure out what's left when you are int he middle and you have less teams that can pick off players you want
Round 7 coming to you and you look at the 4-5 teams behind you that will pick twice and ALL of them have a QB already or all but 1 of them...why would you draft a QB there?
More than likely the guy you want will be there in Round 8 so go ahead and grab that RB3 you covet in Rd 7 or that 3rd, maybe even 4th WR and just fill in your Flex spots NOW

Way more flexibility when you pull the middle slots in the draft from my experience
 
I'm curious how folks are viewing this coming into drafting season. Imagine you're in a redraft league where you get to pick your draft slot (assume 10- 0r 12- team league, you can specify in your response if it's relevant to your answer).

Which draft slot do you want this year? 1.01 and get your #1 guy? Go back to back at the end of the first? Somewhere in the middle and try to land the last of the top tier?
I mean, a lot of people saying where they LIKE to draft GENERALLY is one thing, but I think it's more worthwhile to discuss this years.

Also, 3rr changes a LOT. Most non 3rr leagues don't do a derby style where you pick your own draft spot, as most people will just pick the highest spot.

I like playing my opponents' team and picking 2nd over 3rd (so you can wait until your next pick on QB for example, if the guy at the turn already has one... it's a slight advantage)... but THIS year, I think #1 with CMC is a lock. Can't see any rankings (even in start 3wr and full ppr) not having him ranked 1st. I also see a bit of a drop off after cmc/hill/lamb, so I'd want to be in the top 3 or 4 (in case one of them slips), but wouldn't really want those 5-10 spots in 3rr.
 
I actually like 5-9.

Jefferson is going around 5 or 6 a lot of times (at least on Underdog).
You're in the ARSB range.
You can get Bijan/Breece who could either finish RB1 overall.

I like being towards the middle because you're never THAT far from your next pick. If someone slides in value, you're there to scoop it up. Someone else made the point about getting trapped with runs. I'm a big believer those runs lead to values. Sometimes you go further away from a position than you want, but you're reaping the rewards at another position.
Right now the middle seems to be pretty solid. Get a top WR and then either another elite WR that slips or a very good top RB. I feel like the middle (for the first 3 rounds) gives the most flexibility in your build.
I'm right here. I drew the 6th pick in one of my drafts and I'm very happy. If I get one of:

CMC
Lamb
Hill
Chase
ASRB
Bijan
Breece
(Jefferson, but I'm not thrilled because of the QB situation)

in the first, I'm happy. And the lower I am in that group, the better my second round pick will be. So I'd say the 6/7 range is where I'd like to be.
 
In terms of controlling my draft top three or bottom three is where. Want to be. I prefer to only have to deal with one or two owners in terms of strategy if I can. However, this can backfire. The issue is always coming out “clean” in rounds 1-3. This year round one is a little deeper in terms of sure fire wrs while you have to project the rbs after cmac this year so if I don’t get the first pick, then I’d prefer later in the round. (I tend to build hero rb teams as a rule so I always want the top guy and then I’ll work from there)
 
My best regular season was picking 12th and getting Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning the year they went off. Finished the season 13-1. Then for the playoffs, the Colts rested them and I was doomed.
me too, sadly this was the last time I won the championship...so long ago.
 
I actually like 5-9.

Jefferson is going around 5 or 6 a lot of times (at least on Underdog).
You're in the ARSB range.
You can get Bijan/Breece who could either finish RB1 overall.

I like being towards the middle because you're never THAT far from your next pick. If someone slides in value, you're there to scoop it up. Someone else made the point about getting trapped with runs. I'm a big believer those runs lead to values. Sometimes you go further away from a position than you want, but you're reaping the rewards at another position.
Right now the middle seems to be pretty solid. Get a top WR and then either another elite WR that slips or a very good top RB. I feel like the middle (for the first 3 rounds) gives the most flexibility in your build.
I'm right here. I drew the 6th pick in one of my drafts and I'm very happy. If I get one of:

CMC
Lamb
Hill
Chase
ASRB
Bijan
Breece
(Jefferson, but I'm not thrilled because of the QB situation)

in the first, I'm happy. And the lower I am in that group, the better my second round pick will be. So I'd say the 6/7 range is where I'd like to be.
I am with you here. I just pulled #6 and think it's a nice spot to be in.

If it comes down to Jefferson or ASRB, which way are people typically leaning in a 0.5 PPR?
 
I actually like 5-9.

Jefferson is going around 5 or 6 a lot of times (at least on Underdog).
You're in the ARSB range.
You can get Bijan/Breece who could either finish RB1 overall.

I like being towards the middle because you're never THAT far from your next pick. If someone slides in value, you're there to scoop it up. Someone else made the point about getting trapped with runs. I'm a big believer those runs lead to values. Sometimes you go further away from a position than you want, but you're reaping the rewards at another position.
Right now the middle seems to be pretty solid. Get a top WR and then either another elite WR that slips or a very good top RB. I feel like the middle (for the first 3 rounds) gives the most flexibility in your build.
I'm right here. I drew the 6th pick in one of my drafts and I'm very happy. If I get one of:

CMC
Lamb
Hill
Chase
ASRB
Bijan
Breece
(Jefferson, but I'm not thrilled because of the QB situation)

in the first, I'm happy. And the lower I am in that group, the better my second round pick will be. So I'd say the 6/7 range is where I'd like to be.
I am with you here. I just pulled #6 and think it's a nice spot to be in.

If it comes down to Jefferson or ASRB, which way are people typically leaning in a 0.5 PPR?
I’m all over ASRB this year. But, I’m a Lions fan so there’s that…
 
I actually like 5-9.

Jefferson is going around 5 or 6 a lot of times (at least on Underdog).
You're in the ARSB range.
You can get Bijan/Breece who could either finish RB1 overall.

I like being towards the middle because you're never THAT far from your next pick. If someone slides in value, you're there to scoop it up. Someone else made the point about getting trapped with runs. I'm a big believer those runs lead to values. Sometimes you go further away from a position than you want, but you're reaping the rewards at another position.
Right now the middle seems to be pretty solid. Get a top WR and then either another elite WR that slips or a very good top RB. I feel like the middle (for the first 3 rounds) gives the most flexibility in your build.
I'm right here. I drew the 6th pick in one of my drafts and I'm very happy. If I get one of:

CMC
Lamb
Hill
Chase
ASRB
Bijan
Breece
(Jefferson, but I'm not thrilled because of the QB situation)

in the first, I'm happy. And the lower I am in that group, the better my second round pick will be. So I'd say the 6/7 range is where I'd like to be.
I am with you here. I just pulled #6 and think it's a nice spot to be in.

If it comes down to Jefferson or ASRB, which way are people typically leaning in a 0.5 PPR?
chase.
 
I'm struggling with the best strategy out of the 10 hole in a 10-team PPR.

Take best 2 available even if it's 2 RB or 2 WR? Make sure I get a RB? I hate waiting so long for my 3rd pick. I'm mostly afraid that there won't be a serviceable RB1 there in round 3/4.
 

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