Which draft slot is the best? (1 Viewer)

[theothervcruz]

Doing a league where people don't get assigned their draft position, they get an order in which they get to pick their draft position.

12 team PPR re-draft league

I got #2. I am almost certain the person who got #1 is staying #1 overall and picking Peterson.

Do you think I should stay at #2 and go Foster and appreciate nabbing an elite RB and being able to get 3 of the top 26 players

or

Maybe consider a drop down to either #6/#7 and get one of the solid next tier RBs like Charles, Martin, Rice, Spiller, Lynch, TRich and improving my 2nd round pick for a shot at an elite WR or perhaps another solid RB

or

Go even further down to #11/#12 on the swing picks so I can draft 2 of the top 13/14 players?

 

[butcher boy]

I'd trade down to wherever you think you can comfortably get Charles.

 

[ducktales]

what draft slot is the best? That depends on who you are drafting with, and if you think there is a big drop off in value from the earlier picks than the later picks.

 

[Run It Up]

This year in PPR mocks I've had ridiculous success in the 1-4 (3 being my preferred slot) going RB-RB. The run on RBs this year is practically the entire first and second round.The middle slots are more abysmal than usual 6-9 is my nightmare this year.My mocks from this morning, not the best I've had but I'm okay with them; wasn't too happy with my WR core on the second one; tried grabbing both JStew and DWill in the 3rd turned out alright but my QBBC got destroyed and I ended up with Bradford as my QB2.

 

[theothervcruz]

I'd trade down to wherever you think you can comfortably get Charles.

I think I can get Charles #5

From what I know of my friends in this league, it would go AP, Foster, Martin, Rice Top 4.

They love them some Muscle Hamster.

 

[Gawain]

Yeah, for the first time since 2007 or so, we're seeing 13 of the first 15 picks go RB. There's an argument to go towards the end to snag two of Richardson/Forte/Jackson/Johnson/Morris and that's likely what I would do in a third round reversal, but in a standard snake, there are very good WR's available at the beginning of the third round that I wouldn't want to miss out on (Thomas, Harvin, Fitzgerald). Meanwhile, the second RB options at the middle/end of the second round aren't great (Gore, MJD, Ridley, Bush), but much better than what's around at the end of the third (Miller, Ball, Sproles, Ivory).

Just off ADP, a first four rounds of Charles, Ridley, Fitzgerald, Nelson isn't farfetched and I think that would be a good core for a team. Sprinkle in Hernandez and Stafford in 5 and 6 and that's a solid lineup.

 

[fightingillini]

Doing a league where people don't get assigned their draft position, they get an order in which they get to pick their draft position.

12 team PPR re-draft league

I got #2. I am almost certain the person who got #1 is staying #1 overall and picking Peterson.

Do you think I should stay at #2 and go Foster and appreciate nabbing an elite RB and being able to get 3 of the top 26 players

or

Maybe consider a drop down to either #6/#7 and get one of the solid next tier RBs like Charles, Martin, Rice, Spiller, Lynch, TRich and improving my 2nd round pick for a shot at an elite WR or perhaps another solid RB

or

Go even further down to #11/#12 on the swing picks so I can draft 2 of the top 13/14 players?

The problem will be.....who will want to trade up to the #2 spot? There isn't a real consensus as to who it is, and can't see someone at the 5-6 spots wanting to trade up to #2, since IMO the difference between Foster, Martin, Rice, Charles, and Lynch is pretty small. I would be happy taking the remaining on of this bunch.

I actually don't like the 11 or 12 spots at all, since after the elite RBs, the next bunch are similar, and after Calvin, the next 6-7 WRs are pretty similar. It's too early IMO to take Jimmy Graham or Aaron Rodgers. I don't think you get the true value for those spots.

My preference for you would to be 1) trade down to 5-6, or 2) stay put and get your choice of Foster/Charles/Martin/Lynch, and you will still get a top 10 WR and a decent #2RB with the 23 and 26 picks. I wouldn't trade down to 11 or 12. The latest pick that I would trade down to is 7. There you have a good shot at Calvin and at worst you're getting a Richardson/Spiller type RB, who are all good options in PPR.

 

[meyerj31]

Using PFF's projections in an auction format ($200 cap, this is the relative "value" of the total team through 9 rounds, if the draft were to be snake but drafted according to correct VBD value. I hope that makes sense....

This all depends on your projections and league format... this particular league is a PPR 2/3/1/2 RB/WR/TE/Flex. The data is showing the 1st position is best, followed by the 3rd position, etc. There's not much difference between the spots because the league is sooo deep, and the QB scoring is very balanced as well. I really like this league.

1 187.2254715

3 180.3440701

4 179.8305327

2 179.4710565

5 178.8137286

6 175.9173775

7 175.2497789

8 174.8697612

9 173.0621095

10 171.2339163

11 170.7409204

12 169.1386836

Here's another league ... this one is only the first 6 rounds, and the format is Non-PPR 2/3/0/0 RB/WR-TE/TE/Flex.

So the less flex and the less PPR counts, the more the top selections appear to be valuable. This is a work league for me and I don't like the structure, but I did win it last year drafting 7th. The difference in value between positions is striking and if you get a later pick in a no-flex, non-PPR league, assuming it is competitive, you are at a significant disadvantage.

1 139.1182154

2 129.9682225

3 125.5129904

4 124.7273366

5 118.7678648

6 118.5187551

7 117.1965572

8 115.7785478

10 111.141274

9 111.0933683

11 110.8538396

12 108.5831084

 

[UKColt]

Doing a league where people don't get assigned their draft position, they get an order in which they get to pick their draft position.

12 team PPR re-draft league

I got #2. I am almost certain the person who got #1 is staying #1 overall and picking Peterson.

Do you think I should stay at #2 and go Foster and appreciate nabbing an elite RB and being able to get 3 of the top 26 players

or

Maybe consider a drop down to either #6/#7 and get one of the solid next tier RBs like Charles, Martin, Rice, Spiller, Lynch, TRich and improving my 2nd round pick for a shot at an elite WR or perhaps another solid RB

or

Go even further down to #11/#12 on the swing picks so I can draft 2 of the top 13/14 players?

The problem will be.....who will want to trade up to the #2 spot? There isn't a real consensus as to who it is, and can't see someone at the 5-6 spots wanting to trade up to #2, since IMO the difference between Foster, Martin, Rice, Charles, and Lynch is pretty small. I would be happy taking the remaining on of this bunch.

I think you've misunderstood his post. He doesn't have to trade with anyone. He's at the number 2, but all that means is he gets 2nd choice of his draft spot.

Personally I would go somewhere from 4-7. That nets you a top RB from Charles, Lynch, McCoy, Rice and then gives you plenty of options back around depending on how the draft goes. Graham, an elite WR/QB or a good RB2 will be available in the middle of the 2nd round, and you can then let the draft come to you. 8-10 is also ok. 11 or 12 don't provide top value in my opinion, as I always feel like I'm reaching on someone.

I don't like 1-3 as if there is a run on RBs in the 2nd round, your hand is forced to taking a RB ahead of other, better players or risk trying to mine RB later. I'd rather take Charles/Gore/Fitz from the 4th spot than Peterson/Murray/Thomas from the 1st spot.

 

[PatsFanCT]

I always try to trade down to the middle. 6 is the perfect spot. For me anyway.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

I'd trade down to wherever you think you can comfortably get Charles.

End of thread/

 

[fightingillini]

Doing a league where people don't get assigned their draft position, they get an order in which they get to pick their draft position.

12 team PPR re-draft league

I got #2. I am almost certain the person who got #1 is staying #1 overall and picking Peterson.

Do you think I should stay at #2 and go Foster and appreciate nabbing an elite RB and being able to get 3 of the top 26 players

or

Maybe consider a drop down to either #6/#7 and get one of the solid next tier RBs like Charles, Martin, Rice, Spiller, Lynch, TRich and improving my 2nd round pick for a shot at an elite WR or perhaps another solid RB

or

Go even further down to #11/#12 on the swing picks so I can draft 2 of the top 13/14 players?

The problem will be.....who will want to trade up to the #2 spot? There isn't a real consensus as to who it is, and can't see someone at the 5-6 spots wanting to trade up to #2, since IMO the difference between Foster, Martin, Rice, Charles, and Lynch is pretty small. I would be happy taking the remaining on of this bunch.

I think you've misunderstood his post. He doesn't have to trade with anyone. He's at the number 2, but all that means is he gets 2nd choice of his draft spot.

Personally I would go somewhere from 4-7. That nets you a top RB from Charles, Lynch, McCoy, Rice and then gives you plenty of options back around depending on how the draft goes. Graham, an elite WR/QB or a good RB2 will be available in the middle of the 2nd round, and you can then let the draft come to you. 8-10 is also ok. 11 or 12 don't provide top value in my opinion, as I always feel like I'm reaching on someone.

I don't like 1-3 as if there is a run on RBs in the 2nd round, your hand is forced to taking a RB ahead of other, better players or risk trying to mine RB later. I'd rather take Charles/Gore/Fitz from the 4th spot than Peterson/Murray/Thomas from the 1st spot.

True, I misread the post. In his spot I would pick 5.

 

[theothervcruz]

fightingillini is spot on. I get the 2nd choice of where I want to pick and I am dead certain top pick will be off the board. So I can pretty much go anywhere from 2 to 12.

I like the idea of just moving down to 5/6. I get at least 1 of Charles, Martin, McCoy... and Megatron. Am I crazy to like Megatron ahead of the other RB options like Lynch, Rice etc?

 

[G5781]

If you really want Charles, then take #2 to ensure hes there. Once we're in the heart of fantasy football draft season, the Charles hype may be in over drive. We're in June and hes already been moving up a ton and into a top 3 pick in PPR leagues.

 

[Gawain]

fightingillini is spot on. I get the 2nd choice of where I want to pick and I am dead certain top pick will be off the board. So I can pretty much go anywhere from 2 to 12.

I like the idea of just moving down to 5/6. I get at least 1 of Charles, Martin, McCoy... and Megatron. Am I crazy to like Megatron ahead of the other RB options like Lynch, Rice etc?

I like Megatron more in a vacuum, but when you look at dropoff by round, I like Martin over Gore more than I like Johnson over D. Thomas.

 

[meyerj31]

If you really want Charles, then take #2 to ensure hes there. Once we're in the heart of fantasy football draft season, the Charles hype may be in over drive. We're in June and hes already been moving up a ton and into a top 3 pick in PPR leagues.

If I really liked Charles I'd probably choose #2 and take him as well.

 

[GeeYouknit]

Best slot to draft in? I have always liked the middle of the rounds so for you around 5-7, but it is all based on personal preference. If you are confident in your drafting then you can afford that gap between picks if you are early or late in the rounds but I've never been a fan because you have to sit there too long and watch your favorites go off your board

 

[theothervcruz]

I agree with hating being early/late because of the long gaps between picks. Plus being in the middle of the draft means you have to stay focused.

After some thought, lowest I'd probably drop is #4. If AP goes #1 like I expect, I would get at least 1 of Foster, Charles and Martin and I'd be happy with any of those guys in a PPR league.

Doesn't improve my 2nd round pick that much but #21 is still better than #23 when all is said and done.

 

[valence]

Big fan of 9 or 10 this year. Get one of those top 9 RBs and have a good shot at someone like Graham, Morris, or SJax on the way back.

 

[theothervcruz]

True Valence.

I initially considered #10.

I thought at worst I'd get one of McCoy, TRich, Morris at #10.

On the way back at #15 nab one of Forte,SJax, Graham, AJ Green, Dez Bryant or Brandon Marshall.

I'd be thrilled to start my team off with Morris/Marshall.

Is that better than say Charles or Martin / D. Thomas or Harvin or Fitzgerald?

I tend to think so.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Seems like every year there's always a thread like this on every FF board I've ever been on, and every year there's wildly varying opinions as to what constitutes the "best" spot to pick from that particular year.

But any time someone runs the numbers with enough data, over enough seasons, the conclusion is always the same: In a traditional serpentine draft format, earlier is better.

If you're 100% certain you can land the RB you want at 1.03 or 1.04, whether it's Charles or whomever, then sure, go for slot 3 or 4. But drafts have a funny way of surprising you, and personally I wouldn't give up my shot at a sure thing to move to 1.04 just because it lands me a slightly better slot in Round 2 (and even that has to be balanced against the advantage the earlier slot has on the later one from Round 3 on).

No matter what, the statistical edge that the first few slots has over the last few in a traditional draft is proven, time-tested, and significant - so I think anyone who advocates that you drop down to the back end of the draft order is crazy.

 

[Frank Black]

I agree that earlier is generally better than later. However, I don't like slots 3 and 4 this year in PPR.

In slots 1 and 2, you draft ADP and Foster. #3 is mostly Martin, Charles or Rice, but how do you know which one? #4 leaves two of the three I just named, and the choice isn't easy there either. Some people will draft Calvin at 3 or 4 just to avoid the RB headache.

However, at #5 things begin to clear up a bit.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

I'd rather take Charles/Gore/Fitz from the 4th spot than Peterson/Murray/Thomas from the 1st spot.

totally agree

edit: eh, I like most of the combo possibilities with the 4th pick, not just specifically the Charles/Gore/Fitz combo. Most years I'm content with a 5th, 6th or 7th pick, but the 4th pick seems ideal this year, to me. Positional tiers have shifted internally as well as in relation to other positions (at least for me) and value can be found with the 4th pick through the first 7-8 rounds.

Unlike some other folks I actually like the 9th pick as well. It's not an ideal slot but if you're patient enough to let a draft fall to you, you will be able to put together a quality team. I think the 9th pick requires both patience and confidence in your own projections/rankings.

 

[rustycolts]

Our league did this for the first time this year.12 team league.I of course had the 12 selection I ended up with pick #2.Slots 1 and 2 were the last to be picked.Guess I will go RB,WR,WR. It's funny how strategies have changed.