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Which is the better situation for you to try and come back? (1 Viewer)

Which is the Better Situation to be in trying to come back at the end?

  • Down 10 points with the ball 1st 10 and your own 25 with 1 minute and 12 seconds left

    Votes: 1 2.1%
  • Down 7 points with the ball 1st 10 and your own 25 with 30 seconds left

    Votes: 47 97.9%

  • Total voters
    48

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
Simple end of game question here.

Romo says that the Rams should have declined both penalties on the Sony Michel play with 2:25 left.  And make it 2nd and 6 instead of 1st and 20 for the Patriots.

Given that doing so put the ball on the Rams 29 means that if not a single yard is gained from that point on Gostkowski faces a 46-yard field goal.  Not a cinch but he is more likely than not going to make that.  Ultimately it was a 41-yarder that put them up 10.

I think Romo is wrong - especially because with the new onsides kick rule it is almost impossible to recover the ball.  A 2-score game is much much tougher to overcome than it was even just 2 years ago.  You have to push them back and keep it one score.  1st and 20 would mean gaining no more yards means a 60-yard attempt - and New England would punt there instead.  You have 40 less seconds to work with but crucially you only need one score.

Anyway I think it's and interesting discussion so I'm posting the pole here.  Don't get me started on the fact that nobody throws to the sideline when time is running low anymore - that last Rams drive was amazingly stupid clock management.

-QG

 
Romo was right because you have to hope that Gostowski misses the kick.  30 seconds left is not enough time there (and it likely would have been a few seconds less than that).

Obviously once he hits the FG it's over but leaving 60+ seconds on the clock was your only realistic chance there.

 
Romo was wrong. See ATL's failure in the SB. Keep pushing them back and hopefully out of FG range.
Pretty different scenario since even out of FG range the game would have been practically over with the time left.

Also why are we assuming the punter would have kicked a touchback.  The guy had downed the ball inside the 5 three times already in the game.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Simple end of game question here.

Romo says that the Rams should have declined both penalties on the Sony Michel play with 2:25 left.  And make it 2nd and 6 instead of 1st and 20 for the Patriots.

Given that doing so put the ball on the Rams 29 means that if not a single yard is gained from that point on Gostkowski faces a 46-yard field goal.  Not a cinch but he is more likely than not going to make that.  Ultimately it was a 41-yarder that put them up 10.

I think Romo is wrong - especially because with the new onsides kick rule it is almost impossible to recover the ball.  A 2-score game is much much tougher to overcome than it was even just 2 years ago.  You have to push them back and keep it one score.  1st and 20 would mean gaining no more yards means a 60-yard attempt - and New England would punt there instead.  You have 40 less seconds to work with but crucially you only need one score.

Anyway I think it's and interesting discussion so I'm posting the pole here.  Don't get me started on the fact that nobody throws to the sideline when time is running low anymore - that last Rams drive was amazingly stupid clock management.

-QG
Both scenarios are virtually unwinnable unless something very lucky happens.  In the position of last nights game you need everything to go right regardless and the only realistic chance you have is to keep as much time on the clock (declining the penalty) and hope that NE misses the kick. 

Given your two scenarios I would rather be down one score however at the time of making a decision on whether to accept the penalty or not you decline and hope that the FG is missed.  It is really your only realistic chance to win at that point. 

 
Agree... we couldn't figure out why he kept saying that.  I would never ever want to rely on an onside kick.  Have to think that 30 seconds isn't as big of a deal as having to convert 2 scores.  I'd accept that penalty and make them punt to you all day.

 
Agree... we couldn't figure out why he kept saying that.  I would never ever want to rely on an onside kick.  Have to think that 30 seconds isn't as big of a deal as having to convert 2 scores.  I'd accept that penalty and make them punt to you all day.
No one was relying on an onside kick.  By declining you're hoping Gostowski, who has missed 4 kicks in the last 3 Super Bowls, misses a relatively long FG.

Once you accept the penalty the game is essentially over.  You're relying basically on a hail marry if everything goes exactly right, if you can even get close enough to throw one up.

 
Agree... we couldn't figure out why he kept saying that.  I would never ever want to rely on an onside kick.  Have to think that 30 seconds isn't as big of a deal as having to convert 2 scores.  I'd accept that penalty and make them punt to you all day.
At that point the Rams didn't have to convert 2 scores - the whole premise of declining the penalty is putting the team in the best position to win -  and the Pats turning the ball back over either on downs or by missing the FG was the only legit chance they had to win that game.

Giving the Pats another down, with the ability to run more clock down (plus they could have still made a FG or a first down anyway even after the penalty) would give the Rams close to a zero % chance to win.

 
Simple end of game question here.

Romo says that the Rams should have declined both penalties on the Sony Michel play with 2:25 left.  And make it 2nd and 6 instead of 1st and 20 for the Patriots.

Given that doing so put the ball on the Rams 29 means that if not a single yard is gained from that point on Gostkowski faces a 46-yard field goal.  Not a cinch but he is more likely than not going to make that.  Ultimately it was a 41-yarder that put them up 10.

I think Romo is wrong - especially because with the new onsides kick rule it is almost impossible to recover the ball.  A 2-score game is much much tougher to overcome than it was even just 2 years ago.  You have to push them back and keep it one score.  1st and 20 would mean gaining no more yards means a 60-yard attempt - and New England would punt there instead.  You have 40 less seconds to work with but crucially you only need one score.

Anyway I think it's and interesting discussion so I'm posting the pole here.  Don't get me started on the fact that nobody throws to the sideline when time is running low anymore - that last Rams drive was amazingly stupid clock management.

-QG
No matter what, the Rams needed everything to go their way and NE to really muck things up for LAR to win. The options were NE 1st and 20 at the 43 or 2nd and 6 at the 29. But the best option would have been being down 7 with 1:12 left with 69 yards to go. That would have been the case if NE missed the FG.

 
Starting at the 25 is better, but what about starting  at the 5? The Pats punter had as good a rate of downing punts inside the 10 last night as Gostowski did of making 40+yard FGs.

 
Starting at the 25 is better, but what about starting  at the 5? The Pats punter had as good a rate of downing punts inside the 10 last night as Gostowski did of making 40+yard FGs.
Fair point I did twist up the scenario a bit.  I still ssy one score even at the 5.   Will add second pole if I can

-QG

 
Romo was spot on.  Gostkowski had already missed from 46 and looked pretty shaky all game, even the kick that basically sealed it.  Their only shot is really a missed FG.  Plus, even if they take the penalty and back them up, who is to say that they wouldn't have gotten back to FG range and kicked a FG to go up 10 with like 30 seconds left?  There are a ton of scenarios where they have an extremely slim chance of coming back, but the only situation where they actually have a reasonable chance is if they take the loss of downs, save some time, and Gostkowski misses.  

 
Take the time and send the house.  The strength of your team is your interior line, give them an opportunity to make the game saving play. Maybe they push the field goal back.  Maybe they force brady to pass and it goes incomplete. Maybe they generate a turnover. The clock is against you and you're unlikely to win regardless but this gives you a chance. 

 
Simple end of game question here.

Romo says that the Rams should have declined both penalties on the Sony Michel play with 2:25 left.  And make it 2nd and 6 instead of 1st and 20 for the Patriots.

Given that doing so put the ball on the Rams 29 means that if not a single yard is gained from that point on Gostkowski faces a 46-yard field goal.  Not a cinch but he is more likely than not going to make that.  Ultimately it was a 41-yarder that put them up 10.

I think Romo is wrong - especially because with the new onsides kick rule it is almost impossible to recover the ball.  A 2-score game is much much tougher to overcome than it was even just 2 years ago.  You have to push them back and keep it one score.  1st and 20 would mean gaining no more yards means a 60-yard attempt - and New England would punt there instead.  You have 40 less seconds to work with but crucially you only need one score.

Anyway I think it's and interesting discussion so I'm posting the pole here.  Don't get me started on the fact that nobody throws to the sideline when time is running low anymore - that last Rams drive was amazingly stupid clock management.

-QG
But the Pats had been moving the ball the last 2 series. Rams defense was tired. They almost converted a 2nd and 6 when the penalty was declined. Not only is it an extra play against the clock but an extra play for the Rams to defend.

Also even if it's 3rd and 15 from 38 with 1:20 left, BB probably has a safe pass dialed up to get them to a more makeable  FG at least.

To assume that the Pats would play it the same if the penalty was accepted is folly.

 

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