Which keeper should I, well...keep? (1 Viewer)

[TX Steel]

12 team 0.5 PPR redraft.  Keep 2 players, losing the round they were drafted in the year before.

All scoring basic, with bonuses for long TDs and 100 yd rushing/receiving or 300 yd passing.

Start: QB, RB/RB, WR/WR, TE, Flex, DST, K

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Not sure of our draft order yet, but unless I land a top-2 pick I'm keeping AB at a 1st round price.

Assuming that's what happens, that leaves me with 3 choices and I can only pick 1:

• Winston--current ADP is 7.05, QB 6.  Would cost me a 14th round pick.
  
• Gillislee--current ADP is 5.12, RB 35.  Would cost me a 15th round pick.
  
• Crabtree--current ADP is 5.02, WR 19.  Would cost me a 7th round pick.
  

So I can have both starting WRs done and focus on RBs and a stud TE in Rounds 2-6...or take a gamble on Gillislee as a flex spot for basically nothing...or get my starting QB out of the way at a huge discount.

Who should I keep?  I'd love to hear detailed thoughts below as well.

Thanks, and please leave a link so I can return the favor!

 

[Kam2]

Gillislee is the best one based on value relative to ADP and his ceiling is probably better than either of the other two when taking that into account. I am not a fan of him this year at his price tag though because NE running backs are a pain to figure out on a weekly basis. If you are confident he will get the Blount role, he is the easy choice.

Winston is out for me because there are so many QBs you can win with.

I would go Crabtree myself, mostly because I think he is a good mix of floor and ceiling. He will probably approach 90 catches again and if Cooper can't figure out how to score he could also get 7-8 TDs. You are also getting a nice discount on giving up a 7 for keeping him.

 

[Borden]

Crabtree. 

It feels like he's as old as Boldin to me but the guys only 29/30. He plays on a good offense with a good QB and you could argue he's the 1b rather than the 2. I'm pretty sure he was a top 15 WR last year. 

Winston - No reason to keep him. There's too many options at QB. 

Gillislee - Everyone is penciling him into Blounts role but A) the Pats don't plug guys into their systems they make systems for their personnel. B) Blount had produced as a runner (rookie year in TB went over 1000) before he got to NE. But even his time in NE wasn't that spectacular until last year. His time in NE prior to last year he had 39 games and 16 (+1 receiving) TDs. His 18 TDs in 16 games seems like the outlier. 

The other angle here is that with AB and Crabtree you have a top tier WR pairing which should allow you to draft lots of RBs. 

 

[travdogg]

Crabtree here too. The others may offer more bang for your buck, but Crabtree is the only one of those guys I really trust.

 

[Gally]

I will be a dissenting vote.  I would go with Winston.  I really like him this year and at the 14th round he allows you to stock up WR/RB in the mid rounds without even thinking about QB.  I wouldn't touch Gillisle at this point because of his injury and the Patriots rotation.  To me I want something more than a flex as one of my keepers.  Crabtree is really close but I don't see the upside there.  He is for sure a high floor guy but I would rather take the upside risk with Winston and if he hits he could be in the 5-ish range for QB's.  That is too good for me to pass up in the 14th round.  Plus there will Crabtree caliber guys in the 7th round that you will be able to draft so he doesn't gain you much over what you can just draft anyway.

 

[Chardo]

I would go with Crabtree IF your league tends to follow traditional rankings and don't go QB early. I'm in a similar league who does tend to draft QBs quickly which if that was the case I'd go ahead and take Winston and be able to snipe value in the middle of the draft while they're on their QB run.

See my link below for a similar league and help provide some feedback?
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/758379-14-team-05ppr-league-need-2-keepers/

 

[burnall]

Gilislee, hes the value play, however I'm not a huge fan of any of these keepers tbh

 

[fightingillini]

I also like Winston......top 10 QB in the 14th round is great.   Crabtree is a good option too and I would not fault anyone for keeping him.