fantasyplayer
Footballguy
These are some of the guys often rated as QB2 according to redraft rankings. Which of these is most likely to exceed their ADP and potentially perform as a QB1?
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Which of these QB2s is most likely to perform as a QB1? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter fantasyplayer
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Goat Herders
Footballguy
Which one do you think? How would you rate them?
IMO, there are 2 guys on your list that stand out as being "QB1 capable" and another guy that is somewhat intriguing. I'll post them later.
In terms of ADP/value here are some things to consider....
Eli is going as QB16 right now. He's never been worse then QB14 and has been as high as QB5. In the last 4 years he's finished 5, 11, 14,13....right on the edge of QB1 territory in each season.
Big Ben is being drafted as QB13 despite finishing that high (or better) only twice in 5 seasons. He finished 12th in 2006 and 5th in 2007. He finished 17th last year despite playing 16 games for the first time in his career.
Campbell is going as QB22 but finished 15 (2008) and 17 (2007) in his last two seasons. ANd now that Michael Vick isn't signing with Washington, it's reasonable to expect that Campbell should be a safe bet to exceed his ADP. Not to say he's the guy off this list I'd want the most, but I think the only way he is QB22 or worse is if he gets hurt; his play is very underrated.
Garrard is being drafted at QB18, which is similarly silly. Since getting the full time job in Jax, he's done nothing but improve yet fantasy folks still don't seem sold. He actually WAS a QB1 last season (11th overall) so in a literal sense he doesn't qualify for your poll. Garrard is interesting because his last two seasons are very different: in '08 he had an insane 18/3 TD/INT ratio and finished as QB16 (234fp). Last year, he only had 15 Tds and a woeful 13 Ints but had a better FP year due to an increase in rush yards.
Orton is being drafted as QB19 despite being in a new system, on a new team that just replaced its coaching staff, and potentially without his top target (Marshall). He finished as QB18 last season despite being fairly mediocre much of the time. I'm not entirely sure why anyone would think he'd finish that high again without a rash of injuries to other QBs in the league (as there were last season; keep in mind that perennial top-10'ers like Brady and Palmer didn't chart in 2008.)
Cassel is intriguing. Despite the fact he won't have Randy Moss and Wes Welker around, I actually like the Chiefs O this season. I don't think they're going to set any records but I think they will be much improved over last year. I don't think Cassel finishes in the top-10 but QB14 certainly seems about right for his talent.
I'll let someone else have Edwards. Yes, he has Terrell Owens. But he's still TRent Edwards - I just don't think he has the talent to be a top-12 guy but admittedly I've seen him play the least of this group.
If you told me only one of these guys would out perform his draft spot, my money would be on Manning. He's never finished as low as he's being drafted this season and he's shown the ability to have huge games at any time. If you asked me who I thought would outperform their spot by the most positions, I'd probably go with Campbell. QB22 is REALLY low. He's not one of the bottom 1/3 of QBs in the NFL IMO.
For draft purposes, evaluating ADP with where I think the player will finish, its REALLY easy to rank these guys...
1. Garrard - He's going in the 10th round despite being Qb11 last season with WRs that were so good none of them are on the team anymore.
2. Manning - He's only 2nd because he's going a round and a half higher then Garrard. A combo of those two might be a nice option this season.
3. Roethlisberger
4. Campbell
5. Cassel
6. Edwards (will not be drafting)
7. Orton (will not be drafting)
IMO, there are 2 guys on your list that stand out as being "QB1 capable" and another guy that is somewhat intriguing. I'll post them later.
In terms of ADP/value here are some things to consider....
Eli is going as QB16 right now. He's never been worse then QB14 and has been as high as QB5. In the last 4 years he's finished 5, 11, 14,13....right on the edge of QB1 territory in each season.
Big Ben is being drafted as QB13 despite finishing that high (or better) only twice in 5 seasons. He finished 12th in 2006 and 5th in 2007. He finished 17th last year despite playing 16 games for the first time in his career.
Campbell is going as QB22 but finished 15 (2008) and 17 (2007) in his last two seasons. ANd now that Michael Vick isn't signing with Washington, it's reasonable to expect that Campbell should be a safe bet to exceed his ADP. Not to say he's the guy off this list I'd want the most, but I think the only way he is QB22 or worse is if he gets hurt; his play is very underrated.
Garrard is being drafted at QB18, which is similarly silly. Since getting the full time job in Jax, he's done nothing but improve yet fantasy folks still don't seem sold. He actually WAS a QB1 last season (11th overall) so in a literal sense he doesn't qualify for your poll. Garrard is interesting because his last two seasons are very different: in '08 he had an insane 18/3 TD/INT ratio and finished as QB16 (234fp). Last year, he only had 15 Tds and a woeful 13 Ints but had a better FP year due to an increase in rush yards.
Orton is being drafted as QB19 despite being in a new system, on a new team that just replaced its coaching staff, and potentially without his top target (Marshall). He finished as QB18 last season despite being fairly mediocre much of the time. I'm not entirely sure why anyone would think he'd finish that high again without a rash of injuries to other QBs in the league (as there were last season; keep in mind that perennial top-10'ers like Brady and Palmer didn't chart in 2008.)
Cassel is intriguing. Despite the fact he won't have Randy Moss and Wes Welker around, I actually like the Chiefs O this season. I don't think they're going to set any records but I think they will be much improved over last year. I don't think Cassel finishes in the top-10 but QB14 certainly seems about right for his talent.
I'll let someone else have Edwards. Yes, he has Terrell Owens. But he's still TRent Edwards - I just don't think he has the talent to be a top-12 guy but admittedly I've seen him play the least of this group.
If you told me only one of these guys would out perform his draft spot, my money would be on Manning. He's never finished as low as he's being drafted this season and he's shown the ability to have huge games at any time. If you asked me who I thought would outperform their spot by the most positions, I'd probably go with Campbell. QB22 is REALLY low. He's not one of the bottom 1/3 of QBs in the NFL IMO.
For draft purposes, evaluating ADP with where I think the player will finish, its REALLY easy to rank these guys...
1. Garrard - He's going in the 10th round despite being Qb11 last season with WRs that were so good none of them are on the team anymore.
2. Manning - He's only 2nd because he's going a round and a half higher then Garrard. A combo of those two might be a nice option this season.
3. Roethlisberger
4. Campbell
5. Cassel
6. Edwards (will not be drafting)
7. Orton (will not be drafting)
Tigerbot Hesh
Footballguy
Abraham
Footballguy
Care to unpack this a little bit? What about Campbell's prior performance has you thinking he's so bad?
Herd,
I get the data on Manning, but this year is a Brave New World for him. Gone are Toomer, Burress and even Shockey...heck I'll throw in Barber. Now he has Smith, Moss, Manningham, Dixon and Boss. When he was effective...I mean QB1 material, he had Toomer (who was not at his hight, but definitely decent), Burress (very Good WR), Shockey (Top 5 TE) and Barber (we know his expolits). I am not saying he can't be a good QB2, as if you grab a top flight QB, you can practically wait until kickers are taken to nab him as a great QB2 with where he is currently going, but I just don't see top numbers from him this year.
I guess I have to ask the question, why do you feel he will jump into QB1 range this year? I like the Giants WR corps...honestly, I think they are rolling with 4 WR2-3 types if they could all get on the field in a perfect world. I just don't see a game-breaker out there that will take him to the promised land of QB1 territory.
I get the data on Manning, but this year is a Brave New World for him. Gone are Toomer, Burress and even Shockey...heck I'll throw in Barber. Now he has Smith, Moss, Manningham, Dixon and Boss. When he was effective...I mean QB1 material, he had Toomer (who was not at his hight, but definitely decent), Burress (very Good WR), Shockey (Top 5 TE) and Barber (we know his expolits). I am not saying he can't be a good QB2, as if you grab a top flight QB, you can practically wait until kickers are taken to nab him as a great QB2 with where he is currently going, but I just don't see top numbers from him this year.
I guess I have to ask the question, why do you feel he will jump into QB1 range this year? I like the Giants WR corps...honestly, I think they are rolling with 4 WR2-3 types if they could all get on the field in a perfect world. I just don't see a game-breaker out there that will take him to the promised land of QB1 territory.
fantasyplayer
Footballguy
Thanks for the thorough response GH. To answer the inital question in your post, I voted for Eli immediately after initiating this poll for similar reasons that you like him. I think his downside is likely his current ADP.
evilempire
Footballguy
Manning's TD totals have decreased in each of the last three seasons, so he's not a guy I'm looking at this year -- especially with his makeshift wideout crew.
The two that stand out to me from that list are Garrard and Roethlisberger.
Garrard never seems to have the weapons yet continues to put together very representative QB2 seasons ... even a QB1 season a couple of years ago. With the improved pass blocking and the running game humming along, he should be able to minimize his mistakes this year. He's also usually good for running a couple in as well.
Roethlisberger isn't great, but he can flirt with the top 12, which in my league would be QB1 status. Pittsburgh just doesn't throw the ball enough for him to consistently put up numbers, but Holmes is a big-play type who is now Pittsburgh's de facto WR1, and Mike Thomas is a rookie who can stretch the field as well. You may still see a low number of passes, but more effectiveness and downfield throws.
Those two are the only ones I would consider.
The two that stand out to me from that list are Garrard and Roethlisberger.
Garrard never seems to have the weapons yet continues to put together very representative QB2 seasons ... even a QB1 season a couple of years ago. With the improved pass blocking and the running game humming along, he should be able to minimize his mistakes this year. He's also usually good for running a couple in as well.
Roethlisberger isn't great, but he can flirt with the top 12, which in my league would be QB1 status. Pittsburgh just doesn't throw the ball enough for him to consistently put up numbers, but Holmes is a big-play type who is now Pittsburgh's de facto WR1, and Mike Thomas is a rookie who can stretch the field as well. You may still see a low number of passes, but more effectiveness and downfield throws.
Those two are the only ones I would consider.
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