Which offenses will be "up-tempo?" (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

I've heard stories of a number of teams attempting to emulate the Pats from last year and run an abnormally high number of offensive snaps. Two teams - NE and Detroit - were able to run over 1,100 offensive snaps last year. I think this could represent a genuine innovation that we haven't really seen before. The old tradition was that teams run, give or take, about 1,000 snaps per year, varying slightly above and slightly below depending on chance.

It now appears there could be a number of teams that, by design, run the hurry-up offense not just in the 2-minute drill or when trailing in the 2nd half, but as their base offense. Fantasy wise, this could be very valuable. Not only does it increase the number of pass attempts and rush attempts, but it could also backfire and put more pressure on the defense, resulting in offenses attempting to catch up even more.

Consider that last year 9 teams had over 600 passing attempts, a number that was previously considered a very high ceiling. In combination with the shift towards a pass-first league, a up-tempo offense suggests a few offenses that will produce QB1s and a number of viable WRs (for example, both Avery and Hilton were viable as WR3s last year). It doesn't have to just be passing - NE last year was near the very top of the tables for BOTH passing and rushing.

Which offenses does the Shark Pool expect to run up-tempo as a base offense? What flavors of up-tempo do the various homers expect? I'll offer a few suggestions to get the ball rolling:

• Eagles - this is the obvious answer as Kelly provided the blue print for the Pats. But I don't think he intends to run an up-tempo passing attack, but an up-tempo rushing attack. This suggests that Bryce Brown could be a viable backup and get 200 carries even with a healthy McCoy getting his 250-300.
• Rams - heard it on the Audible, and it makes so much sense. They want to copy the OK offense from Bradford's college days. IMO it will be difficult to peg a single WR, a single RB, or possibly even a single TE to produce solid numbers from week to week as it will be spread around. But it points to Sam Bradford as a viable borderline QB1 simply because of the volume of attempts.
• Bills - this one has been more under the radar than the above. But in reality the Bills probably have a better defense than the Eagles (not saying much) and thus might be more able to run the hyper-speed offense than the Eagles themselves. This points to CJ spiller being huge, Fred Jackson being viable, and potentially Manuel as another high end QB2.

Any others? Comments on the above? There could be a ton of utility in identifying these offenses and mining them for value, despite the apparent weaknesses as traditional offenses, because volume can make up for quality.

As a corollary, which offense that ran an unusually high number of offensive snaps (or pass attempts) do you expect to drop a bit? My suggestion here is the Colts. The coaching and personnel changes suggest a more conservative, 2-WR 2-TE base rather than the 3-WR spread. I expect Luck to have fewer pass attempts.

Apologies for linking to a non-FBGs site, but I found this to be really useful: http://www.fftoday.com/articles/smith/13_run_pass_ratios.html

(if anyone can link me to the FBGs equivalent I will gladly sub it out)

 

[Amused to Death]

I've heard stories of a number of teams attempting to emulate the Pats from last year and run an abnormally high number of offensive snaps. Two teams - NE and Detroit - were able to run over 1,100 offensive snaps last year. I think this could represent a genuine innovation that we haven't really seen before. The old tradition was that teams run, give or take, about 1,000 snaps per year, varying slightly above and slightly below depending on chance.

It now appears there could be a number of teams that, by design, run the hurry-up offense not just in the 2-minute drill or when trailing in the 2nd half, but as their base offense. Fantasy wise, this could be very valuable. Not only does it increase the number of pass attempts and rush attempts, but it could also backfire and put more pressure on the defense, resulting in offenses attempting to catch up even more.

Consider that last year 9 teams had over 600 passing attempts, a number that was previously considered a very high ceiling. In combination with the shift towards a pass-first league, a up-tempo offense suggests a few offenses that will produce QB1s and a number of viable WRs (for example, both Avery and Hilton were viable as WR3s last year). It doesn't have to just be passing - NE last year was near the very top of the tables for BOTH passing and rushing.

Which offenses does the Shark Pool expect to run up-tempo as a base offense? What flavors of up-tempo do the various homers expect? I'll offer a few suggestions to get the ball rolling:

• Eagles - this is the obvious answer as Kelly provided the blue print for the pass. But I don't think he intends to run an up-tempo passing attack, but an up-tempo rushing attack. This suggests that Bryce Brown could be a viable backup and get 200 carries even with a healthy McCoy getting his 250-300.
• Rams - heard it on the Audible, and it makes so much sense. They want to copy the OK offense from Bradford's college days. IMO it will be difficult to peg a single WR, a single RB, or possibly even a single TE to produce solid numbers from week to week as it will be spread around. But it points to Sam Bradford as a viable borderline QB1 simply because of the volume of attempts.
• Bills - this one has been more under the radar than the above. But in reality the Bills probably have a better defense than the Eagles (not saying much) and thus might be more able to run the hyper-speed offense than the Eagles themselves. This points to CJ spiller being huge, Fred Jackson being viable, and potentially Manuel as another high end QB2.

Any others? Comments on the above? There could be a ton of utility in identifying these offenses and mining them for value, despite the apparent weaknesses as traditional offenses, because volume can make up for quality.

Chris Polk is gaining on the outside, and may have already passed Brown for RB2. But yes, the Eagles' RB2 may hold more than a little FF value.

 

[David Dodds]

I think the Chiefs will be an uptempo offense a lot this year

 

[karmarooster]

I think the Chiefs will be an uptempo offense a lot this year

Did a little research and and found some pieces sighting Reid's desire to run an up-tempo offense with a "track meat mentality." If you look at last year, the Eagles ran 1031 plays (7th in the league) and 1028 the year before. Those are decently high so there might be something here. If this is the case, I would assume that Dexter McCluster could potentially have value (echoed in some of the Daily Emails) and make him a decent late-round flyer.

 

[karmarooster]

Also going to add the Cardinals to the list. With Arians last year, the Colts 4th in the league with 1068 snaps (just one behind Denver), and it was decidedly a pass-happy offense with a 59/41% pass/run ratio. I'd expect more of the same with the weak run-blocking O-line they have in Arizona, and probably one of the most pitiful RB corps in the league (not a big fan of Mendenhall, or Ryan Williams who might not even make the roster). This is further evidence that Palmer will be a viable borderline QB1 or potential committee, and also that Michael Floyd is a prime sleeper.

 

[Faust]

The Broncos

 

[ChainsawU]

Did a little research and and found some pieces sighting Reid's desire to run an up-tempo offense with a "track meat mentality."

 

[DiStefano]

Did a little research and and found some pieces sighting Reid's desire to run an up-tempo offense with a "track meat mentality."

I smell bacon!

 

[ShaHBucks]

From the looks of the Eagles defense thus far, passing attempts might be up more than most think.

 

[msudaisy26]

The Jets. Not sure if it helps in fantasy though when you are down 21 and going 3 and out every 60 seconds?

 

[DawnBTVS]

Total list thus far... some of these teams were from last year too. * = Rumored/Wait and See.

Arizona Cardinals*

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions* - They threw a lot of passes but did they go no huddle/hurry up?

Green Bay Packers

Kansas City Chiefs*

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New Orleans Saints* - See Detroit Lions. They run a lot of plays but do they go no huddle/hurry up?

New York Jets*

Philadelphia Eagles

St. Louis Rams*

 

[Biabreakable]

Well that is 13 teams so far. Honestly I think almost every team has been talking about running more plays. It is kind of the offseason mantra every year. At some point when every team is already doing this, it is going to wash out. While I do think we could see an increase in total offensive plays run again, at some point the other team running "up-tempo" offense is going to control the ball long enough that your team will not be netting any more plays than they normally would just because you do not have the ball long enough.

If the NFL does switch to a 18 game season at some point then we will see a huge increase in plays and player performance. This up tempo offense may provide a slight increase in offensive plays in the mean time. Offenses certainly trending up and when another team faces these up tempo attacks it does somewhat force the other team to try to keep up.

I think 2013 is going to see an increase in rushing attempts while still maintaining most of the gains in passing attempts that have been growing over the past decade.

 

[karmarooster]

Where did this talk of the Jets come from? Honestly haven't heard this and I don't really see it. They don't have the personnel at WR or TE to do it, and it's still a Rex Ryan team with a defense first mentality.

Also not sure I Agree about GB given the renewed emphasis on the ground game. They were under 1000 plays last year IIRC, and the loss of LT puts a big strain on the offense if they try to go hurry up.

Addressing the idea that this will cancel out. I don't think the overall idea here is more teams trying to control the clock... I think it's more teams trying to run more plays per minute. It's possible that the NFL sees a significant increase in the average number of offensive snaps because less time runs off the clock between plays. It could even backfire and give the other team the ball back more quickly... See Kelly's Ducks. They were in a ton of shoot outs because they'd score quickly and give the ball back to the other team.

 

[karmarooster]

One more thing to add on the Atlanta Falcons. Last year, they were a bi-polar team. I mean that they switched back and forth from a high-octane, shotgun spread Ryan to Julio/Roddy/Gonzo passing attack (615 pass attempts, #8)... and then became the most predictable, least imaginative running attack with Turner's 3 yards and a cloud of dust (378 rushes, #8 fewest). Only 993 offensive snaps.

Assuming SJax is a significant upgrade to Turner (and that IS an assumption based on how dead-legged he looked in the P1 game)... they could maintain the high-level passing attack and upgrade or augment the running attack with either more successful runs or a better implemented screen-game with Sjax and Rodgers.

This is just conjecture on my part and it relies on an assumption about Jackson but they could be a team to join the 1,000+ snap club.

 

[karmarooster]

Haven't been able to find much data to go over - would love to take a look at the average number of plays over the years. This is the best I could find:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/plays-per-game

Looking through the years 2003 to 2012 - no team ever managed more than 70 snaps per game (1,120 snaps per season) until 2011 and the Saints did it. Then last year, 3 teams topped 70. Note that the data does not jive with the FFtoday table in the OP (FFToday puts Indy at 1,069 snaps, or ~66 per game).

Those are the kind of numbers necessary to have a real impact on fantasy. The smaller jumps from say 975 to 1,025 is more in line with the regular fluctuation rather than a change in offensive philosophy. If there are, let's say, a half-dozen teams with 1,100+ snaps per game, those are the teams able to support a higher than normal number or WRs, RBs, or TEs, or convert a decent QB into a viable QB.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Karmarooster...

I think where you are getting confused is mixing up no-huddle/up tempo with the actual play totals. Some teams, like New England, went hurry up and snapped the ball off quickly. Other teams went hurry up more sparingly and also waited to snap the ball.

Teams like Green Bay trend towards the latter, same with Miami (under former GB OC Joe Philbin) while teams like Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Denver will presumably lean towards the former.

Same thing happens at the college football level. Teams may run up-tempo offenses but some teams snap the ball much quicker while other teams wait and let the clock wind down a bit.

 

[karmarooster]

Karmarooster...

I think where you are getting confused is mixing up no-huddle/up tempo with the actual play totals. Some teams, like New England, went hurry up and snapped the ball off quickly. Other teams went hurry up more sparingly and also waited to snap the ball.

Teams like Green Bay trend towards the latter, same with Miami (under former GB OC Joe Philbin) while teams like Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Denver will presumably lean towards the former.

Same thing happens at the college football level. Teams may run up-tempo offenses but some teams snap the ball much quicker while other teams wait and let the clock wind down a bit.

Yah I understand that some teams like to get to the line quickly, keep the defense from subbing, and then run audibles from the line of scrimmage. The net result is approximately the same number of snaps. I'm looking to identify teams with more snaps. I would have thought to classify Denver as one of get to the line quickly but don't snap it quickly - Manning's chicken dance' - but Denver actually ran the 3rd most number of snaps.

 

[Biabreakable]

I certainly think it is a discussion worth having. I have brought this up a few times over the offseason. I got some very good feedback from MT is regards to the Eagles offense but for the most part I think most ppl just kind of went hmmm.

2012 17788pa 13925ra 31713 plays
2011 17410pa 13971ra 31381 plays
2010 17269pa 13920ra 31189 plays
2009 17033pa 14088ra 31121 plays
2008 16526pa 14119ra 30645 plays
2007 17045pa 13986ra 31031 plays
2006 16389pa 14447ra 30836 plays
2005 16464pa 14375ra 30839 plays
2004 16354pa 14428ra 30782 plays -enforcement of 5yd rule

2003 16493pa 14508ra 31001 plays
2002 17292pa 14102ra 31394 plays

As you can see from the 2003 mark, league wide offensive plays have increased by 712 total plays since then. That is an average of 22.25 more plays/team. Now obviously some teams increased their plays while others decreased or stayed about the same. So those extra plays were not spread evenly but rather some teams caused a bigger chunk of this than others.

The other thing of note is the decrease in rushing plays over this time frame. What has been 14508(2003) and 14447(2006) has dipped below 14000 for the last 3 seasons. What could also be useful to this discussion would be a list of teams that we think will run the ball more. If they do this may keep the total plays from climbing that much even as more teams run up tempo offense.

More pass plays means less time taken off the clock, which means more time to run more plays. That is not necessarily because of up tempo offense, but rather more passing offense. Although the up tempo does have an effect.

I think it takes a very experienced QB to run the hurry up offense effectively. Less experienced passers cannot read the defenses well enough to take advantage of it as well. May need more help reading the coverage with pre snap motion and so on, which does take more time.

 

[Tatonka]

based on what I saw in the first half of the bills game (im a bills fan), they will definitely be no huddle this season. EJ Manuel had 21 pass attempts in the first half. He struggled some early, but shined in the 2 minute drill. CJ Spiller looked absolutely electric in the opening drive. I think his first two runs were both for 15 yards and he left a lot of guys on the defense picking up their jock.

EJ will take some time to progress, so expect Spiller to carry the load early and he will catch a lot of dump offs as well. The WRs have a ton of speed. Stevie Johnson will be the "slow" one playing out of the slot quite a bit. TJ Graham, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin (who took one to the house on a kick off), Da'rick Rogers, and CJ Spiller will turn the game into a track meet. you have 3 guys in there that are 4.3 or better guys.The offensive line looked solid.

The defense looks like they will be blitz happy (Mike Petine from the Jets is the new D coordinator), which will lead to some big plays for the opposing offense and some big turnovers for the defense.

As a Bills fan, I can't wait to see more. FYI, I traded Foster (my keeper for the last 3 years) for CJ Spiller about a week ago. Based on what I saw in this game, I'm completely comfortable with the decision. gives me a chance to root for CJ as a homer, but if he gets the additional 100 touches that the prior coaching staff should have given him last year, and stays healthy, he will exceed 2000 total yards (rushing and receiving) without a doubt. The bills need to start working on his contract extension immediately.

 

[karmarooster]

I certainly think it is a discussion worth having. I have brought this up a few times over the offseason. I got some very good feedback from MT is regards to the Eagles offense but for the most part I think most ppl just kind of went hmmm.

2012 17788pa 13925ra 31713 plays
2011 17410pa 13971ra 31381 plays
2010 17269pa 13920ra 31189 plays
2009 17033pa 14088ra 31121 plays
2008 16526pa 14119ra 30645 plays
2007 17045pa 13986ra 31031 plays
2006 16389pa 14447ra 30836 plays
2005 16464pa 14375ra 30839 plays
2004 16354pa 14428ra 30782 plays -enforcement of 5yd rule

2003 16493pa 14508ra 31001 plays
2002 17292pa 14102ra 31394 plays

As you can see from the 2003 mark, league wide offensive plays have increased by 712 total plays since then. That is an average of 22.25 more plays/team. Now obviously some teams increased their plays while others decreased or stayed about the same. So those extra plays were not spread evenly but rather some teams caused a bigger chunk of this than others.

The other thing of note is the decrease in rushing plays over this time frame. What has been 14508(2003) and 14447(2006) has dipped below 14000 for the last 3 seasons. What could also be useful to this discussion would be a list of teams that we think will run the ball more. If they do this may keep the total plays from climbing that much even as more teams run up tempo offense.

More pass plays means less time taken off the clock, which means more time to run more plays. That is not necessarily because of up tempo offense, but rather more passing offense. Although the up tempo does have an effect.

I think it takes a very experienced QB to run the hurry up offense effectively. Less experienced passers cannot read the defenses well enough to take advantage of it as well. May need more help reading the coverage with pre snap motion and so on, which does take more time.

I think I remember discussing this with you last offseason. I was convinced there would be multiple 5,000 yard passers.... and it didn't turn out that way. I think the major beneficiaries of the league-wide trends (more passing attempts at the expense of rushing attempts, passer-friendly rules including the 5-yard WR rule and the Brady QB protection rules) were not, in fact, QBs but WRs. I think that continues this year -- and is part of the reason why WR is so deep this year. More 3 and 4-wide sets, more pass attempts league wide, a better YPA for each pass, and the kickoff rules increase the size of that pie.

But I what I was trying to get at in this thread is different. What we discussed last year and you point out with the above stats are league-wide movements. What I'm talking about here is a number of teams who consistently aim to snap the ball 12-15 seconds after the last play ended. I think its a completely different issue (although in combination with the league-wide trends, it points to more viable WRs).

The number of teams that aim to do this could be as few as 2 - NE and Philly. But I think there's a good chance up to 1/4 or 1/3 of the teams in the league attempt to emulate what the Pats did last year (which was an emulation of the Ducks offense). It might be that teams like the Rams, the Bills, the Broncos , etc. do this on occasion, or they might do it frequently enough to bump up their number of offensive snaps over 1,100.

Think about it this way - with the normal fluctuations in snaps year to year based on a fumble here or there (basically variance), the snaps might go up from 975 to 1,025. That 50 snaps over a season. Your numbers from last year show about a 44/56% league-wide rushing/passing breakdown. So those extra 50 snaps might translate into another 16-20ish runs for a particular RB, for example. It could result in a small change in that particular RBs year end stats. An extra rush per game, an extra 80-100 yards over the course of the season for that RB.

Now consider a team like the Rams, for example... if they jump up from 967 snaps last year to 1,100 (sort of the arbitrary mark I'm setting) due to the hyper-speed 15 seconds per play Ducks offense... that's not just going to change a single RB, single WR, or single QBs year end stats. That's going to support, depending on offensive philosophy, an additional RB2 or even RB3, an additional WR3 or even WR4, and maybe a second TE.

An increase of 133 snaps, based on the league wide breakdown of 56/44 equals about 75 more pass attempts, and 58 more rushing attempts. Continuing the example, Bradford had 590 attempts as a rook and 551 last year. This bumps him over 600. Almost any QB with over 600 pass attempts is going to jump up to top 10ish in pass attempts and, particularly on that turf with that deep of a WR and TE corp, probably jump up to QB1 numbers.

Another thing. Compare NEs 1164 snaps to Tennessee's 918 (most to least). Double check my math here -- but that's 29% more snaps for NE. That's like playing an additional 4.8 games!

 

[Biabreakable]

Right. What I did is look at the teams who had low offensive plays last season and asked myself if I see those offenses improving. In the case of the Titans I do see them improving but mostly because of upgraded offensive line and somewhat because of Shonn Greene. They are a team that have increasing rushing attempts from last season and more offensive plays overall.

The Packers are a team that I see increasing rush attempts also because of the additions of Lacy and Franklin. This is a top tier offense that many are expecting Rodgers to be the #1 QB. I think that could be wrong if the Packers are effective with their running game and correspondingly decrease their passing attempts. Injury to Bulaga could lead to more running as well.

The Lions who had an insane number of passing attempts last season may increase their rushing attempts as well. I do not see them going under 600pa but I do think they will be closer to 600 than 720 and most of those plays shifting to more rushing attempts.

You have to go team by team and I do think the up tempo offense is something many teams are looking at doing. How effective they are doing that is what I partially question. If you have a inexperienced QB such as Manuel making quick reads frequently it may indeed lead to more offensive plays run, but it will also likely lead to more turnovers as well.

Very good discussion to have and thanks for starting this topic. I would love to hear more thoughts on this.

 

[cheese]

I think this is a big deal because you're talking about running more plays than other teams, but you have to be careful with a team like the Broncos. No huddle can look up-tempo without really being up-tempo. A few teams like out there (like Denver) have been known to sprint to the line and then snap the ball with 2 on the play clock.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Just breaking down some teams/splits last year after the remarks of the RB2/3 and WR3/4 remarks... What I think will happen is that with most up-tempo offenses we will see them go one of two ways depending on the teams involved.

Pathway #1: Main Players get more touches total due to the increased number of plays ran.

Pathway #2: Role players, e.g. 3rd Down Backs or 3rd WR/2nd TE in 3 Wide/2 TE base sets will get slightly more touches due to more plays involving more role specialization.

2012 New England - Some of this was also partly due to organizational transitioning as well due to injuries.

RB Stevan Ridley: 296 touches

RB Danny Woodhead: 116 touches

RB Shane Vereen: 70 touches

WR Wes Welker: 120 touches

WR Brandon Lloyd: 74 touches

WR Julian Edelman: 25 touches

TE Rob Gronkowski: 55 touches

TE Aaron Hernandez: 52 touches

Several players could have turned into bye-week fillers but interestingly, the up-tempo by NE helped really add touches to the "main" players.

2012 Denver Broncos

RB Willis McGahee: 193 touches

RB Knowshon Moreno: 160 touches

RB Ronnie Hillman: 94 touches

WR Demaryius Thomas: 94 touches

WR Eric Decker: 85 touches

WR Brandon Stokley: 45 touches

TE Jacob Tamme: 52 touches

TE Joel Dreessen: 41 touches

 

[Biabreakable]

Here are the 2012 offensive plays by team sorted from the most total plays to the least-

New England 523ra 641pa 27sk 1164tp 44.93r% 55.07p%
Detroit 391ra 740pa 29sk 1131tp 34.57r% 65.43p%
Denver 481ra 588pa 21sk 1069tp 44.99r% 55.01p%
Indianapolis 440ra 628pa 41sk 1068tp 41.20 r% 58.80p%
Houston 508ra 554pa 28sk 1062tp 47.83r% 52.17p%
New Orleans 370ra 671pa 26sk 1041tp 35.54r% 64.46p%
Philadelphia 413ra 618pa 48sk 1031tp 40.10r% 59.90p%
Dallas 355ra 658pa 36sk 1013tp 35.04r% 64.96p%
Oakland 376ra 629pa 27sk 1005tp 37.41r% 62.59p%
Baltimore 444ra 560pa 38sk 1004tp 44.22r% 55.78p%

Atlanta 378ra 615pa 28sk 993tp 38.07r% 61.93p%
Green Bay 433ra 558pa 51sk 991tp 43.69e% 56.31p%
New York Jets 494ra 493pa 47sk 987tp 50.05r% 49.95p%
Pittsburgh 412ra 574pa 37sk 986tp 41.78r% 58.22p%
Tampa Bay 416ra 566pa 26sk 982tp 42.36r% 57.64p%
Kansas City 500ra 475pa 40sk 975tp 51.28r% 48.72p%

Cincinnati 430ra 540pa 46sk 970tp 44.33r% 55.67p% increasing to 1k plays
Minnesota 486ra 483pa 32sk 969tp 50.15r% 49.85p%
St. Louis 410ra 557pa 35sk 967tp 42.40r% 57.60p%
Cleveland 396ra 566pa 36sk 962tp 41.16r% 58.84p%
Washington 519ra 442pa 33sk 961tp 54.01r% 45.99p%
Arizona 352ra 608pa 58sk 960tp 36.66r% 63.34p% Colts were 41r% to 59p% Palmer gets 62P%
Chicago 470ra 485pa 44sk 955tp 49.21r% 50.79p%
Buffalo 442ra 511pa 30sk 953tp 46.38r% 53.62p% up tempo offense that I expect to run more.
Carolina 462ra 490pa 36sk 952tp 48.53r% 51.47p% planning less read option.

New York Giants 409ra 539pa 20sk 948tp 43.14r% 56.86p%
Miami 440ra 504pa 37sk 944tp 46.61r% 53.39p%
Jacksonville 358ra 586pa 50sk 944tp 37.92r% 62.08p% should run more, but may not have a choice.
Seattle 536ra 405pa 33sk 941tp 56.96r% 43.04p%
San Diego 411ra 528pa 49sk 939tp 43.77r% 56.23p%
San Francisco 492ra 436pa 41sk 928tp 53.02r% 46.98p%
Tennessee 378ra 540pa 39sk 918tp 41.18r% 58.82p%

I took this information from here- http://www.fftoday.com/articles/smith/13_run_pass_ratios.html which is sortable.

I tiered the offenses by offenses over 1k total plays then in 25tp increments.

As you notice for the lowest tier in total plays ran that some of these are very good offenses such as Seattle and San Francisco. But they are good defensive teams with strong running games is why they can be successful running less overall plays.

The teams I expect to run more I highlighted in red. Some of these may not generate more total plays but less because running plays take more time generally. Also many of the teams I see running the ball more were in the top half of total plays run, so if that is correct that should mean total plays for those teams coming down some. The teams I have passing more I expect to run more total plays.

For my team projections I go back 2 or 3 seasons depending on the continuity of coaching staff and main players, as well as comparing trends of offensive coaches in new places as part of my consideration.

As far as the overall trend I have teams running perhaps as many as 500 more times in 2013 than 2012 because of all the teams I have increasing rushing attempts. Some of those teams are up tempo teams which are the Eagles and Bills. I have total overall plays coming back down by about 200. But I could see these up tempo offenses, if enough teams stick to it through most of the season, pushing total plays over the 32000 mark instead of the 31500.

3200 would mean every team averaged 1k plays. 2012 did come close to this with an average of 991 total plays. So it is possible. The up tempo could be the thing to push offense over that mark. What is remarkable to me about the system is that so many running plays get called. In more traditional hurry up offense there will only be a couple draws with most of the rest of the plays being pass plays (meant to conserve time rather than keep the clock running).

The problem I have with the Jets (I have not really projected for them) is that they lost Shonn Greene and I am not sure if Ivory is durable enough to earn all those carries. The team is just horrible and I think it is somewhat of an outlier that they had as many plays as they did. Similarly the Raiders who lost Carson Palmer are 2 offenses that I have getting worse in terms of total plays who were in the top half in 2012.

 

[Biabreakable]

Just listening to the audible and Matt Waldman talking about the Chip Kelly up tempo offense.

Matt suggests that the Eagles could run 80 plays a game. MT suggested something similar to this in previous conversation about this as well.

I do not think that pace can be maintained for a full 16 games. If you projected games at 80 plays/game that would be 1280 total plays. I do not think the defense will allow that. It is unprecedented. The Patriots running a version of this offense and its pacing with one of the best QB to play the game set a record with 1191 total plays. I do not think projecting the Eagles to break this record of 1191 total plays is likely although I won't dismiss it as impossible. I very much doubt they could add another 90 plays on top of the record the Patriots set last season.

Plays/game 2012

1 New England 74.3 74.0 82.0 75.3 73.1 67.2 - This is the current record for plays run.
2 Detroit 72.5 71.7 63.0 73.4 71.6 65.4
3 Indianapolis 70.4 71.3 87.0 71.4 69.4 59.4
4 Denver 69.2 79.3 87.0 72.7 65.4 63.5
5 Houston 69.0 70.7 75.0 69.0 69.0 64.8

- This is the pace needed for a team to run 1100 plays.

6 Philadelphia 67.4 64.3 65.0 65.6 69.2 64.8
7 New Orleans 66.7 73.0 63.0 62.9 70.5 71.0
8 Dallas 65.6 60.3 61.0 69.0 62.1 63.6
9 Baltimore 65.4 67.0 71.0 63.1 67.5 64.9

- 65 plays a game would be 1040.

10 Green Bay 64.7 61.3 56.0 66.1 63.3 62.4
11 NY Jets 64.6 64.7 72.0 64.2 65.0 64.4
12 Oakland 64.5 63.7 57.0 67.1 61.9 63.4
13 Pittsburgh 63.9 59.0 53.0 62.4 65.5 63.7
14 Atlanta 63.8 63.0 66.0 63.1 64.6 66.9
15 Arizona 63.6 58.7 53.0 65.6 61.5 62.1
16 Kansas City 63.4 53.7 48.0 64.4 62.5 63.8
17 Tampa Bay 63.0 72.7 65.0 60.6 65.4 60.4
18 St Louis 62.6 64.0 61.0 63.9 61.7 63.3
19 Cincinnati 62.6 53.3 48.0 59.9 65.0 63.5
20 Minnesota 62.5 67.0 62.0 62.1 62.9 62.9
21 Chicago 62.4 58.7 68.0 61.6 63.2 61.1
22 Cleveland 62.4 58.0 62.0 61.9 62.9 64.0

- This is teams running 1k plays/game. A little over half of the league.

23 Jacksonville 62.1 67.7 71.0 59.5 64.8 62.6
24 Carolina 61.8 69.0 74.0 60.6 62.9 62.5
25 San Diego 61.8 50.3 50.0 59.1 64.4 65.5
26 Washington 61.6 56.0 54.0 59.6 64.0 64.4
27 Seattle 61.6 63.0 66.0 61.1 61.9 62.7
28 Buffalo 61.4 63.0 57.0 61.2 61.6 62.0
29 Miami 61.4 61.7 57.0 62.5 60.2 61.9
30 San Francisco 60.8 64.3 51.0 61.8 59.9 62.1
31 NY Giants 60.5 50.0 58.0 61.4 59.6 65.7
32 Tennessee 59.8 55.3 51.0 59.6 60.0 61.5
While I can see total plays increasing because of more wide spread use of up tempo concepts by several teams, the Eagles and Bills so far seem very committed to it, other teams may use it but seem not committed to doing it all the time as these offenses do, but as more teams do you will also have more teams not getting back on the field while the other team is using up all the clock running 60-70 plays a game. Lets say the Bills play the Eagles. They both cannot run 80 plays a game. Opposing offenses will slow things down on them also and rest their defense.

I also think the simplified plays being run in the up tempo will be easier to plan for by opposing defenses and this will lead to more turnovers, which means this up tempo offense will not have the ball. You look at how many plays Brady and Manning run. I just am not seeing a rookie or Mike Vick or Foles being able to protect the ball enough in such an offense over the course of the season.

I certainly do think the increased pacing will lead to more plays. Just not that many more plays.

In regards to the Bronco's doing this, Payton Manning likes to try to get the defense to jump so much he is constantly faking he is changing the play and that takes time. He has done this his whole career. No one does this as much as PM and I do not see that changing. That alone will keep the Bronco's from increasing their total plays much due to pacing.

I do think it is a very interesting topic though.

 

[bulger2holt]

The Rams are going to spread things out. Quick and Givins on the outside, Tavon and Cook on the inside. Mis-match nightmare. Who do you cover Tavon and Cook with? LB'er? Safeties? Your #1 CB? They will dare you to single cover Quick and Givens with your #2 and #3 CB's.

If only Sam gets adequate protection....

 

[Biabreakable]

The Rams are going to spread things out. Quick and Givins on the outside, Tavon and Cook on the inside. Mis-match nightmare. Who do you cover Tavon and Cook with? LB'er? Safeties? Your #1 CB? They will dare you to single cover Quick and Givens with your #2 and #3 CB's.

If only Sam gets adequate protection....

I can see the Rams improving to 1k plays possibly. They had a ratio of 42.4% run 57.6% pass last season. I could perhaps see the rushing attempts going down due to less proven RBs and improved weapons in the passing game, but the Rams have a good defense also and coaches will a history of leaning on the run. So I left their distribution the same. I could see the passing ratio pushing up to 59-60% however. I need to give that more thought.

 

[karmarooster]

After a few pre-season games, some good info from Bri, and listening to some of the Audible, here's my best guess as to offensive snaps for 2013. I'm going to break it down into tiers similar to player rankings, but based on snaps.

1200+

(1) Eagles - I'm calling it now... Chip Kelly wants this record, and I think he has the ego to go after it no matter what. I've done some research on his system at Oregon, and through two pre-season games, it looks like he's going to try to keep at least 50% of it. The only major changes that I can see are the hiring of "traditional" OC and QB/WR coaches to implement the full route tree (which he has no expertise in - rather smart move, IMO). This requires 75 snaps per game, and he's averaged that in the preseason. You have to know he's not fully pressing the tempo in the preseason, too.

The only way a team could run this many snaps is if they have a scheme designed around it, practice it throughout camp, and have the personnel to do it. The Eagles have one-upped NEs 2-TE set from last year with 3 solid TEs. Kelly wants to create all kinds of mis-match problems with them and go to his "Green" speed when he gets the right defense. Everything is based around speed - such that if Kelly has a WR on the left side, and a WR on the right side, and they run crossing routes... on the very next play they will line up opposite where they started because they will finish their routes on the opposite sides.

A great resource for more on Kelly's offense: http://fishduck.com/playbook/

The NFL is not going to know how to counter his schemes for at least 1/3 of the season, possibly longer. Even when he puts stuff on tape, he's waiting for the defense to make an adjustment, and then he has a counter for that adjustment. His 'zone-read' is not just limited to the DE... how is an NFL team going to react when his reads are based on the safety, the corner, the outside LB, the DT? etc. etc. We saw how easy it was for SF to baffle GB last year, and Kelly's schemes are several times more advanced. The only style team I think that can counter him (snaps-wise) is a very traditional SF/Seattle team with a tough defense and an offense that can control the clock with the ground game. And the Eagles don't play any teams like that this year...

Another thing - the defense in Philly may be bottom 5 in the NFL. That's not a negative. Kelly will run the ball, and do so at hyper speed, even when down 14 points (or when up 14 points). His whole philosophy is to make the defense puke and then take advantage in the 4th quarter. There's a strong chance that Philly produces a fantasy bonanza, with tons of points possible for Vick, McCoy, Brown (still not on the Polk train), and DeSean. The TEs and other WRs will contribute but I don't see how to peg which one will produce week to week.

(Note - I'm not saying he's going to be a major success in the WL department. He might be 5-11 or 8-8 and still have 1200 snaps. Or, he might start our 5-1 and then tank. But I know he's going to try to revolutionize the game.)

1150+

(2) Patriots - I think they fall back a bit from last year, but they will pick up the pace when Gronk gets back. We've seen how sharp Brady has been. Again, the only way to have this many snaps is to design for it, and Bill is a student of Kelly's schemes.

1100ish (1075-1125)

While this is a higher than average number of snaps, the fantasy benefits of "tempo" are more modest as compared to the teams above. I think more than a few teams brush up against 1100 plays, and they can do so in a variety of ways. One way is through a heavy reliance on the passing game that stops the clock frequently, particularly with a low completion percentage (e.g. 2012 Lions). Another way is through trying to emulate Kelly or the Pats, but without the specialized personnel to do so. This suggests a number of teams:

(3) Bills - they lack a deep TE corps, and Kolb is just garbage. Manuel has surprised me, but even if he was healthy, there would be growing pains. The head coach's comments about making Spiller puke should be music to your ears.

(4) Broncos - Manning's no huddle isn't always fast due to his chicken dance. But he can snap the ball with minimal arm flailing when he wants. Their personnel also suggests a less-balanced offense with more passing than last year. I'm thinking 600+ attempts. The only problem with this projection is that they might blow teams out by halftime and really slow it down in the second half.

(5) Lions - still not much of a ground game, as Bush will be more Saints-Bush than Dolphins-Bush. Maybe Stafford drops below 700 attempts, but no way fewer than 650. Plus, dome. Plus, that defense (still).

(6) Cardinals - this team is a bit under the radar, but the personnel makes it obvious. Mendenhall is still terrible, and Ryan Williams is about to be cut. They simply have one of the weakest running games in the league. Arians is going to make Palmer to Fitz-Floyd-Roberts-Housler shine. Serious value on this offense all around (except for the RBs...). 63% pass ratio last year for the Cards, and Arian was 58% for Indy. Expect ~60% this year.

Potentially - (7) Dallas (but Callahan tempers this), (8) New Orleans (probably even if they give Ingram more carries).

1000ish (1000-1075)

I think this is the new normal in the NFL for a balanced offense based on rule changes, and the fact that the new average run-pass ratio across the league is 56/44. This group includes most teams that aren't exceptionally bad, or exceptionally old-school.

(9) Colts

(10) Texans

(11) Falcons

(12) Packers

(13) Bears

(14) NY Jets? (no clue here... but they probably suck too much)

(15) NY Giants

(16) Browns

(17) Bengals (defense is too good to push them up, despite the suggestion based on personnel. Plus, Andy Dalton.)

(18) Chiefs

(19) Rams* - somehow missed them. They should be either at the top of this tier or at the bottom of the one above. Their best RB is Richardson and he's a great receiver, not great between the tackles. Their WR and TE corps is probably the deepest in the league. The dome helps. Only improvements by the defense could check this projection.

(20) - Bucs?

(21) - Steelers?

Sub-1000

Everyone else. Either because they are mostly garbage (Jaguars, Raiders, Vikings, Dolphins, Chargers), because they will run too much (Redskins, Titans, Panthers,), or because the defense is too good AND they run too much (49ers and Seahawks).

 

[Amused to Death]

After a few pre-season games, some good info from Bri, and listening to some of the Audible, here's my best guess as to offensive snaps for 2013. I'm going to break it down into tiers similar to player rankings, but based on snaps.

1200+

(1) Eagles - I'm calling it now... Chip Kelly wants this record, and I think he has the ego to go after it no matter what. I've done some research on his system at Oregon, and through two pre-season games, it looks like he's going to try to keep at least 50% of it. The only major changes that I can see are the hiring of "traditional" OC and QB/WR coaches to implement the full route tree (which he has no expertise in - rather smart move, IMO). This requires 75 snaps per game, and he's averaged that in the preseason. You have to know he's not fully pressing the tempo in the preseason, too.

The only way a team could run this many snaps is if they have a scheme designed around it, practice it throughout camp, and have the personnel to do it. The Eagles have one-upped NEs 2-TE set from last year with 3 solid TEs. Kelly wants to create all kinds of mis-match problems with them and go to his "Green" speed when he gets the right defense. Everything is based around speed - such that if Kelly has a WR on the left side, and a WR on the right side, and they run crossing routes... on the very next play they will line up opposite where they started because they will finish their routes on the opposite sides.

A great resource for more on Kelly's offense: http://fishduck.com/playbook/

The NFL is not going to know how to counter his schemes for at least 1/3 of the season, possibly longer. Even when he puts stuff on tape, he's waiting for the defense to make an adjustment, and then he has a counter for that adjustment. His 'zone-read' is not just limited to the DE... how is an NFL team going to react when his reads are based on the safety, the corner, the outside LB, the DT? etc. etc. We saw how easy it was for SF to baffle GB last year, and Kelly's schemes are several times more advanced. The only style team I think that can counter him (snaps-wise) is a very traditional SF/Seattle team with a tough defense and an offense that can control the clock with the ground game. And the Eagles don't play any teams like that this year...

Another thing - the defense in Philly may be bottom 5 in the NFL. That's not a negative. Kelly will run the ball, and do so at hyper speed, even when down 14 points (or when up 14 points). His whole philosophy is to make the defense puke and then take advantage in the 4th quarter. I really think there's a chance that Philly produces a fantasy bonanza, with tons of points possible for Vick, McCoy, Brown (still not on the Polk train), and DeSean. The TEs and other WRs will contribute but I don't see how to peg which one will produce week to week.

(Note - I'm not saying he's going to be a major success in the WL department. He might be 5-11 or 8-8 and still have 1200 snaps. Or, he might start our 5-1 and then tank. But I know he's going to try to revolutionize the game.)

Completely agree with the bolded - we don't know if he'll be successful over the long haul, but right now trying to figure out what this season will bring sure is fun for Eagles' fans. Consider this blurb from phillymag.com (talking about the 4 TE set. Yes, 4 TEs).

Kelly has made it clear from the get-go that he loves tight ends. His first offensive free-agent acquisition was Casey, and then there was the Ertz pick. Their versatility and the tempo allow the Eagles to create mismatches without subbing.

“The defense doesn’t know what to do,” Harbor explained. “If they’re gonna put all linebackers out there, they don’t know if we’re gonna go in tight and pound the ball or if we’re gonna spread out wide and throw the ball. If they bring in linebackers to guard us, we can all run like receivers. If they bring in defensive backs, we’re gonna get in tight, or we can still stay out wide and pound the ball. It’s really a chess match between the coaches there. And anything they do, we win.”

ETA: Its also a nice change to hear the coach say they'll react to what the defense is giving them instead of "its my system and I'll run it no matter what".

 

[Biabreakable]

Good stuff guys. I would love to hear more opinions on this.

 

[lod01]

New England has been at the top of up tempo for a long time if I am not mistaken. With the NFL being a copycat league, from an FFL standpoint, it would be great to see Philly go bat ### crazy up tempo and succeed but they just don't ahve the horses. Expect them to finish in the NFC East cellar.

On the other end of the spectrum, Gomer and the Giants will continue to let the play clock hit 1 or 2 before snapping the ball. They like to let the defense know exactly when the snap is coming.

 

[Amused to Death]

New England has been at the top of up tempo for a long time if I am not mistaken. With the NFL being a copycat league, from an FFL standpoint, it would be great to see Philly go bat ### crazy up tempo and succeed but they just don't ahve the horses. Expect them to finish in the NFC East cellar.

On the other end of the spectrum, Gomer and the Giants will continue to let the play clock hit 1 or 2 before snapping the ball. They like to let the defense know exactly when the snap is coming.

If the Eagles finish last in the NFC East, it won't be because of their offense. They've looked flawless in their 2 preseason games. Please explain "they just don't have the horses" to run this offense?

ETA: Its strange that Kelly will be labeled as a copycat of his own offense.

 

[Biabreakable]

http://www.thevictoryformation.com/2012/09/17/the-nfl-is-a-passing-league-the-statistics-prove-it-and-the-rules-mandate-it/

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/run-pass-balance-historical-analysis.html

 

[FF Ninja]

Karmarooster...

I think where you are getting confused is mixing up no-huddle/up tempo with the actual play totals. Some teams, like New England, went hurry up and snapped the ball off quickly. Other teams went hurry up more sparingly and also waited to snap the ball.

Teams like Green Bay trend towards the latter, same with Miami (under former GB OC Joe Philbin) while teams like Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Denver will presumably lean towards the former.

Same thing happens at the college football level. Teams may run up-tempo offenses but some teams snap the ball much quicker while other teams wait and let the clock wind down a bit.

Yeah, I think he's confused. His inclusion of Arizona based on Indy last year was the point where I realized he was just looking at total plays rather than style of offense. I don't think Arians has ever run an up tempo offense. Last year Indy ran a ton of plays because they were always behind. Did you guys know that despite finishing 11-5 that they had a 30 point deficit on the year? They ran a lot of plays because their defense was giving up points very quickly. The offense was not only on the field a lot, but they were passing a lot (6th most passes despite a rookie QB). And because of this (and the fact that he threw the most passes over 20 yards) Luck had a ton of incomplete passes which stops the clock.

I like Carson Palmer throwing to Fitz, Roberts, and Floyd but I think the Arizona defense is much better than Indy's. Their run game will be crap, so Palmer will be throwing the ball to move the chains but up tempo this offense will not be.

 

[bumpman]

"It may have largely gone unnoticed at the time, but not long ago a Packers player may have dropped a hint that could point to some possible changes in the look and feel of this season's version of the Packers offense.

During the first preseason game against the Cardinals, James Jones was interviewed after he finished playing for the evening.

It was one of those lighthearted sideline interviews, a rite of summer that happens every year during a team's broadcast of their own exhibition games.

In this particular interview, TODAY'S TMJ4's sideline reporter Rod Burks asked James Jones what he was expecting out of the offense this season compared to last year. Jones' answer may have been revealing.

'Adjust the tempo,' Jones answered. 'We want to be a lot faster in and out of the huddle when we go no-huddle, and when we go regular standard offense. We want to speed it up a little bit. We're a fast-paced offense, and hopefully when we get down into the red zone we'll score some more points.'"


http://www.todaystmj4.com/sports/green-bay-packers/Possible-changes-on-offense-emerge-for-Packers-220599691.html

Another article on Green Bay's intent to speed up its tempo on offense:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/packers-want-snappy-tempo-with-no-huddle-offense-b9980833z1-220611641.html

 

[jdkapow]

(1) Eagles - I'm calling it now... Chip Kelly wants this record, and I think he has the ego to go after it no matter what.

It's an easy record to get. Just don't run a defense out there at all. Better yet, no coverage teams: just let the opponents run back every KO and punt for a score. That way, you don't need a defense, you can devote all those roster spots to more offensive guys and you can run 2000 plays without tiring anyone out. It's brilliant.

 

[Biabreakable]

You make a good point ninja. Similarly the Lion's gave up scores quickly on defense (and special teams). Stafford threw the ball a ton and that is how they are up in the top 5 from 2012. But it was not really due to up tempo, just too much passing, even for them. I do not expect that to be repeated. Even if the Lions are not good running the ball I expect them to run the ball more.

Similarly with Dallas as well as long as their RBs are healthy enough. They should run the ball more than they had healthy players to do so with last season.

Part of my issue with expecting the Eagles to be able to increase their total plays called is that I think they ran a lot of plays last season for much the same reasons. Bad defense and being behind. Besides Andy Reid being a pretty pass happy coach to begin with, I think Andy and most other coaches in the league are familiar with what up tempo is and have been for some time. It is not a new idea in that sense and I think NFL coaches likely know a lot more about the Duck offense than most of us here do. To think that they have not been studying this as well as everything else happening at the college level in years past is not likely a safe assumption.

So I am skeptical of the Eagles being able to push their total plays up from an already pretty high pace last season.

Another way to look at this would be data on how long it takes for the QB to throw the ball (or hand off a run) how long they take on average between each snap and try to find out how many plays that would be each game and for the season. Just based on the time elapsed for each offense on average between plays.

Of course the opposing defense and offense has a lot to say about this outcome as well. But I have not tried to project plays based on the average time used by each offense for each play. I think it would be interesting to see what those numbers look like. I do not have this data.

 

[Biabreakable]

I was just listening to Greg Cossell audibles (thanks Faust!). http://ht.cdn.turner.com/si/audibles/audio/2013/08/30/audibles-podcast-cosell1.mp3

At the 30:30 mark he says something very interesting in regards to the number of plays run.

GC: "What are some of the differences between college football and the NFL football?


Here is one thing that strikes me, particularly when I start watching more college football. When I start to watch college game I follow the play by play. I always see, these teams, they run 84 plays, 91 plays, 88 plays, that's a lot of plays.

In the NFL that's very rare. Now maybe it will start to move that way. But up to this point, in the NFL that's very rare. Ok? The Patriots ran 74 plays a game last year, the most in the NFL by about about 5 plays a game. So on average most NFL teams run less than 70 plays a game."

The whole episode is excellent and I highly recommend listening when anyone has the time.

 

[karmarooster]

Karmarooster...

I think where you are getting confused is mixing up no-huddle/up tempo with the actual play totals. Some teams, like New England, went hurry up and snapped the ball off quickly. Other teams went hurry up more sparingly and also waited to snap the ball.

Teams like Green Bay trend towards the latter, same with Miami (under former GB OC Joe Philbin) while teams like Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Denver will presumably lean towards the former.

Same thing happens at the college football level. Teams may run up-tempo offenses but some teams snap the ball much quicker while other teams wait and let the clock wind down a bit.

Yeah, I think he's confused. His inclusion of Arizona based on Indy last year was the point where I realized he was just looking at total plays rather than style of offense. I don't think Arians has ever run an up tempo offense. Last year Indy ran a ton of plays because they were always behind. Did you guys know that despite finishing 11-5 that they had a 30 point deficit on the year? They ran a lot of plays because their defense was giving up points very quickly. The offense was not only on the field a lot, but they were passing a lot (6th most passes despite a rookie QB). And because of this (and the fact that he threw the most passes over 20 yards) Luck had a ton of incomplete passes which stops the clock.

I like Carson Palmer throwing to Fitz, Roberts, and Floyd but I think the Arizona defense is much better than Indy's. Their run game will be crap, so Palmer will be throwing the ball to move the chains but up tempo this offense will not be.

Ok thats fair criticism, but as I pointed out the strength of the AZ defense is mooted out by the weakness of the running game. I tried to point out teams that I expect to run a lot of plays because of reliance on passing (Lions) as opposed to those that will try to snap the ball quickly between plays (Bills?). In any case, this is mostly a shot in the dark after doing some research this offseason. I invite the tweaks/criticism from others with more knowledge than me.

I'd love for some more people to throw up projections for total plays run for all 32 teams and see how they shake out by the end of the season. The only projection I'm really sticking by as my called-shot is "Eagles 1200+", despite reasonable objections based on their terrible defense.

 

[Biabreakable]

bump

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

One of these days I think it would be pretty interesting to draft just from 3-4 teams.

This year I think those teams would be the Pats, Broncos, Bears, Eagles.

The Bill might be a wildcard depending on how their QB'ing performs.

 

[Biabreakable]

So from the 1st game of the season the Bronco's did look like they were running plays at a slightly faster pace during the 1st half. They deferred the ball to the 2nd half as Manning very good with half time adjustments.

The Broncos time of possession 26:12 scoring TDs makes your offense not have the ball as long.

The Broncos ran 65 offensive plays and returned 6 punts for 63 yards. Which is pretty good. No kicks were returned. The good special teams shortens the field somewhat which reduces potential plays that could be run before they score.

65 plays for the season would be 1040. I do think the Bronco's will run more than this on average with somewhat the same game plan. Hurry up for the 1st half then adjust 2nd half.

 

[karmarooster]

So from the 1st game of the season the Bronco's did look like they were running plays at a slightly faster pace during the 1st half. They deferred the ball to the 2nd half as Manning very good with half time adjustments.

The Broncos time of possession 26:12 scoring TDs makes your offense not have the ball as long.

The Broncos ran 65 offensive plays and returned 6 punts for 63 yards. Which is pretty good. No kicks were returned. The good special teams shortens the field somewhat which reduces potential plays that could be run before they score.

65 plays for the season would be 1040. I do think the Bronco's will run more than this on average with somewhat the same game plan. Hurry up for the 1st half then adjust 2nd half.

Yah I looked up the box score this morning expecting to see more based on the RB mess, but on ESPN I saw 68 plays. Not sure which is correct, but 68 works out to 1088 on the season. In any case, it looks like the Broncos are going to be a goldmine for fantasy value (excluding RBs), but not necessarily because they run a Patriots/Eagles level of plays. Despite being "confused," I still think they rank where I slotted them in the "1100ish" category. Higher than average.

One reason that I think will keep them below the stratosphere in terms of number of plays is the fact that they will not be trailing for much time on the clock. Last night, the continued to chuck the ball when up by 14+ points, and still didn't crack 70. That's probably the time of possession factor you pointed out; too many 25+ yard TD strikes by Manning.

 

[lod01]

New England has been at the top of up tempo for a long time if I am not mistaken. With the NFL being a copycat league, from an FFL standpoint, it would be great to see Philly go bat ### crazy up tempo and succeed but they just don't ahve the horses. Expect them to finish in the NFC East cellar.

On the other end of the spectrum, Gomer and the Giants will continue to let the play clock hit 1 or 2 before snapping the ball. They like to let the defense know exactly when the snap is coming.

If the Eagles finish last in the NFC East, it won't be because of their offense. They've looked flawless in their 2 preseason games. Please explain "they just don't have the horses" to run this offense?

ETA: Its strange that Kelly will be labeled as a copycat of his own offense.

Maclin is out. Cooper's 2nd string but starting. Desean Jackson is ok. TE blows. They do have McCoy.

 

[karmarooster]

IMO, win or lose (more likely), Kelly is going to run more plays than anyone. If your whole scheme is built around quick snapping, you're not going to slow down just because Riley Cooper is your second best WR and your defense sucks.

 

[Biabreakable]

So from the 1st game of the season the Bronco's did look like they were running plays at a slightly faster pace during the 1st half. They deferred the ball to the 2nd half as Manning very good with half time adjustments.

The Broncos time of possession 26:12 scoring TDs makes your offense not have the ball as long.

The Broncos ran 65 offensive plays and returned 6 punts for 63 yards. Which is pretty good. No kicks were returned. The good special teams shortens the field somewhat which reduces potential plays that could be run before they score.

65 plays for the season would be 1040. I do think the Bronco's will run more than this on average with somewhat the same game plan. Hurry up for the 1st half then adjust 2nd half.

Yah I looked up the box score this morning expecting to see more based on the RB mess, but on ESPN I saw 68 plays. Not sure which is correct, but 68 works out to 1088 on the season. In any case, it looks like the Broncos are going to be a goldmine for fantasy value (excluding RBs), but not necessarily because they run a Patriots/Eagles level of plays. Despite being "confused," I still think they rank where I slotted them in the "1100ish" category. Higher than average.

One reason that I think will keep them below the stratosphere in terms of number of plays is the fact that they will not be trailing for much time on the clock. Last night, the continued to chuck the ball when up by 14+ points, and still didn't crack 70. That's probably the time of possession factor you pointed out; too many 25+ yard TD strikes by Manning.

Maybe they count the fumbles as extra plays or something. I used NFL.com

It was the sacks I missed. 3 sacks = 68 plays run.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think one thing you'd want to bear in mind is that the pats don't just run a lot of plays for the hell of it -- they're a pretty efficient offense with an excellent qb who can string plays together

I should probably look up some stats, or something, but just eyeballing it i'd say it's part hurry up, part successful offense, and possibly part the other team -- and by 'the other team', I mean I'd guess teh pats encourage other teams to throw a lot, and allow them to march downfield a bit while throwing, which tends to conflate into more plays/game.

I think what you'd want to look at as far as statistics is not just raw plays/game, but plays/drive, and maybe yardage/drive.

maybe I'll edit some in for the pats in a bit, since I had looked that stuff up for another post quite a while ago.

 

[Biabreakable]

You are right Larry because the main feature of what makes "up-tempo" so different from other forms of hurry up is the large number of rushing attempts. More rushing attempts run quickly + normal number of passes = more plays run.

This is what the Ducks have done and what the Patriots did last season.

If Denver would run the ball a little bit more than they have the plays would pretty easily shoot up to the 70 play a game range I think. But Denver only ran the ball 21 times + 2 Manning kneel downs. The Patriots averaged 33 rushing attempts a game.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

from football outsiders

2012 nep

# drives - 180 (league av = 181)

los/dr - 12th (av starting field pos)

top/dr - 13th

yds/drive - 39.27 (1st)

plays/dr - 6.76 (1st)

DSR - .787 (1st)

DSR represents Drive Success Rate, as introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2005, which measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Take-a-knee drives at the end of a half are discarded.

pts/dr - 1st

3outs/dr - 1st

3Outs/Dr represents three-and-outs (three plays and a punt) per drive

defensive drive stats

to's/drive - 1st

2011 nep

# drives - 173 (29th)

los/dr - 9th

top/dr - 13th

yds/drive - 39.53 (2nd)

plays/dr - 6.40 (3rd)

DSR - .775 (2nd)

pts/dr - 3rd

3outs/dr - 5th

defensive drive stats

to's/drive - 3rd

you'll probably see similar from a team like the saints, so I think a big part of being able to run a lot of plays is being able to run a lot of successful plays.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

You are right Larry because the main feature of what makes "up-tempo" so different from other forms of hurry up is the large number of rushing attempts. More rushing attempts run quickly + normal number of passes = more plays run.

This is what the Ducks have done and what the Patriots did last season.

If Denver would run the ball a little bit more than they have the plays would pretty easily shoot up to the 70 play a game range I think. But Denver only ran the ball 21 times + 2 Manning kneel downs. The Patriots averaged 33 rushing attempts a game.

yeah, absolutely.

this really differentiates 'up tempo' from what you might see in a 2 min drill, or catch up mode, where the clock has become your enemy, and so you tend to throw the ball.

in these pats/kelly offenses you want to catch your opponent in some particular look, like let's say you get them in dime, then you might run no huddle and just run the ball every play with your multiple te sets.

and a big part of that is simply drive/play efficiency.

the pats are generally in a position that allows them to choose their tempo, which differentiates them from some other teams that might be running more plays due to simply more passing while playing catch up.