I don't see it that way. The 2nd WR on San Diego typically doesn't do much and VJax is easily their #1 now.Banger said:I don't know their ADP's yet but I'd bet that Vjax will be overvalued and Chambers will be undervalued.
wasn't Chambers injured most of last year?I don't see it that way. The 2nd WR on San Diego typically doesn't do much and VJax is easily their #1 now.Banger said:I don't know their ADP's yet but I'd bet that Vjax will be overvalued and Chambers will be undervalued.
while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 targetMalcom Floyd
Malcom Floyd

He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 targetMalcom Floyd
IMO the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:
The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.
Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.
Chambers had only 64 targets, a pretty low number for a starter. That could go up. Consider that he had at least 85 targets in 13 games with San Diego in 2007, despite arriving midseason. (I say at least because FBG doesn't list targets for week 20.)
Naanee and Davis combined for only 18 targets... will one or both of them have an increased role and thus more targets? I doubt it, but it's possible.
Floyd had only 37 targets. He played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on those limited targets.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season.
So where does that leave Jackson's targets? Will Rivers attempt more passes this year? His 478 attempts last season was only 11th or 12th in the NFL last season, but that is deceiving since many QBs did not play all 16 games as Rivers did... as a team, San Diego was #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.
As I showed above, I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets, given the competition from the RBs, TEs, and other WRs. Jackson had 101 targets during the 2008 regular season, plus he had 9 targets in 2 playoff games. But those numbers were arguably inflated at least a bit due to injuries to Gates and Chambers.
The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often.
Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):
1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)
2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr)
3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)
4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)
He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:
Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)
Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr)
Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)
Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)
Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)
62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. It certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.
He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 targetMalcom Floyd
I have posted similar things in other threads.Gates is the best option... hes still TE2 IMO; I would only take Witten over him. I went after Gates in my leagues so far...Both PPR leagues1st Trade * G-Men gave up Frerotte, Gus FA QB;Betts, Ladell WAS RB;Portis, Clinton WAS RB;Gates, Antonio SDC TE; Year 2009 Draft Pick 3.02 * NO MA'AM gave up Cassel, Matt KCC QB;Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB;Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB;Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN WR;Boss, Kevin NYG TEThat was a little priceyThen I got him for Cooley / 2.02I'll be curious to see how healthy Gates can get in the off season. My guess is, you'll have to continue to pay a high price in redrafts for Gates and VJ could be had in a lot of drafts as an early #2. I feel that Gates is a better every week contributor when healthy, Jackson will win you a few weeks with big games and hurt you in weeks where he is limited. I guess that is pretty standard for all WRs though.
Mostly from the FBG player and team pages. I also use pro-football-reference.com and ESPN player split stats periodically.Great post Just Win. Where did you find those stats?
Any word on how he's been looking health-wise during the offseason?If Gates is healthy he's the answer.
Vincent JacksonHe has shown he is much further ahead of the curve than Floyd.Great size, and he knows how to get in the open field.I don't care if he is suspended for a couple of games, he's really showing maturity,I think VJax is the clear answer.He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 targetMalcom Floyd
If you're just saying Jackson will have more fantasy points than Floyd, I agree with that.But if you are saying Jackson is the clear choice to the poll question, I disagree. Jackson's targets are more likely to go down than up in comparison to last year, due to possible suspension, return to health of Tomlinson, Gates & Chambers, and possible emergence of Floyd. Knowing that and anticipating that Jackson's ADP will have him going in the WR15 neighborhood, he is not good value IMO.Also, I'm not so sure Jackson is way ahead of Floyd at this point. Floyd produced 27/465/4 on just 37 targets. Jackson produced 59/1098/7 on 101 targets. I fully expect Floyd to see more time on the field this year, and if Jackson draws the top corner, he could definitely lose some of his looks to Floyd.Vincent JacksonHe has shown he is much further ahead of the curve than Floyd.Great size, and he knows how to get in the open field.I don't care if he is suspended for a couple of games, he's really showing maturity,I think VJax is the clear answer.He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 targetMalcom Floyd
Not sure i agree with that line of reasoning. Reason Sproles and Floyd got as many targets as they did last year was because of the health of Gates, LT and Chambers. Don't see any reason that the touches of Gates, LT, Spoles, Chambers and Floyd as a whole would increase or decrease. Their total targets seem very much in line with recent years and what would be expected of the TE, #1 RB, #2 RB, #2 WR and #3 WR. They take away touches from each other, not Vjax. His role in the offense is much different.If you're just saying Jackson will have more fantasy points than Floyd, I agree with that.But if you are saying Jackson is the clear choice to the poll question, I disagree. Jackson's targets are more likely to go down than up in comparison to last year, due to possible suspension, return to health of Tomlinson, Gates & Chambers, and possible emergence of Floyd. Knowing that and anticipating that Jackson's ADP will have him going in the WR15 neighborhood, he is not good value IMO.Also, I'm not so sure Jackson is way ahead of Floyd at this point. Floyd produced 27/465/4 on just 37 targets. Jackson produced 59/1098/7 on 101 targets. I fully expect Floyd to see more time on the field this year, and if Jackson draws the top corner, he could definitely lose some of his looks to Floyd.Vincent JacksonHe has shown he is much further ahead of the curve than Floyd.Great size, and he knows how to get in the open field.I don't care if he is suspended for a couple of games, he's really showing maturity,I think VJax is the clear answer.He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 targetMalcom Floyd
Well, my perspective is that Sproles and Floyd got their opportunities in part because of injury, but they were so productive with those opportunities that they will get more looks this year even if other targets are healthy. Perhaps you are right in that this will come at the expense of other RBs and Chambers, and not Jackson... but if I had to bet on whether or not Jackson will get more or less than the 101 targets he had last year, I'd take the under. We'll see what his ADP looks like in August. If he is being drafted in the top 20, I don't think he will offer good value.Reason Sproles and Floyd got as many targets as they did last year was because of the health of Gates, LT and Chambers. Don't see any reason that the touches of Gates, LT, Spoles, Chambers and Floyd as a whole would increase or decrease. Their total targets seem very much in line with recent years and what would be expected of the TE, #1 RB, #2 RB, #2 WR and #3 WR. They take away touches from each other, not Vjax. His role in the offense is much different.
I certainly have not been advocating Floyd as a startable fantasy WR unless in extremely deep leagues. However, I think his play last year will lead to more targets this year, which could impact Jackson and Chambers. Personally, I wouldn't want Chambers in my lineup either, barring injuries to others or a radical increase in passing attempts for the Chargers offense.I do think it is possible that Floyd could have some dynasty value. Chambers is in the last year of his contract, so if Floyd plays well again this year, he could move into a starting role next year (if not this year). Meanwhile, it is very possible the offense will shift to a heavier pass ratio over the next few years as Tomlinson declines. And who knows if Sproles will be around next year. It is very possible that the Chargers WR2 could be the #3 target on the team behind Gates and WR1 by 2010 or 2011 and, with a heavier pass ratio, in line for 100+ targets. And Floyd could be that guy. It's a bit of a long shot, but Floyd should be very cheap, so it is a worthwhile gamble IMO.The issue with Floyd is that outside of an injury, he's likely never going to be a startable WR play. Even if he ends up with 5-600 yards and 6 TDs, how many of those pts will actually end up in your fantasy boxscore? Unless you play in a start 5 WR league or go RB crazy the first 6 rounds of your draft, it's extremely hard to put someone in your lineup who may only get 2-3 targets a week.As a Charger fan, I love Floyd and the element he brings to the Charger offense. Fantasy wise, I have a hard time seeing a situation where I'd actually put him in my lineup unless VJax or Chambers go down.
When we are talking in the offseason, it always seems like roles are set in stone, but we know that is far from true. What exactly has Chambers done to deserve an ironclad spot in the starting lineup? I would argue that Floyd clearly outplayed Chambers last year. When Chambers and Floyd played together, the target split was 32 to 28 in favor of Chambers, but Chambers only put up 17/159/0 and Floyd put up 20/325/2. The injuries are important to bring up, and that's been mainly what has held him back, and a punctured lung ended his season prematurely last year. Not to mention Floyd and Rivers are clearly "on the same page" - that's part of the reason Floyd is so much more productive on his targets. I see no reason that split can't tilt to Floyd next year, especially if Floyd gets to begin the year starting because of VJackson suspension. Strictly on draft pick cost/potential production ratio, Floyd is the best pick among SD passcatchers. Shoot, you'll probably be able to get him with a last round pick.

In the last year of his contract, now no longer the #1, Floyd / Davis behind him, I could see Chambers being moved this offseason. As Sig said a few posts ago, "When we are talking in the offseason, it always seems like roles are set in stone, but we know that is far from true. What exactly has Chambers done to deserve an ironclad spot in the starting lineup?"Jacksonville Offering DT Henderson+ Picks for WR help
930 "The Fox" in Jacksonville is reporting the Jaguars have been in contacts with Several teams including the Cardinals Cowboys Saints Browns and Chargers in regards to acquiring Potential WR help in exchange for John Henderson and Draft picks
With Matt Jones and Jerry Porter being released and no interest in bringing back Reggie Williams, 3rd year man Mike Walker now becomes the team's #1 Wide Out. Though the Jags have been mentioned as a possible Torry Holt suitor, the Jaguars front office is rumored to have targeted several players including Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Braylen Edwards and Chris Chambers- who is in a contract year for the Chargers.
The jags pick at #8 ,#39, and #72 in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft this April.
Interesting. How good is John Henderson nowadays? He just turned 30, and has 3 years remaining on his contract:2009: $4.2 millionFrom the For What It's Worth department, there's at least some speculation there is trade interest in Chambers. I dug this up from March 18th:
http://gryphononcowboys.blogspot.com/2009/...-henderson.html
In the last year of his contract, now no longer the #1, Floyd / Davis behind him, I could see Chambers being moved this offseason. As Sig said a few posts ago, "When we are talking in the offseason, it always seems like roles are set in stone, but we know that is far from true. What exactly has Chambers done to deserve an ironclad spot in the starting lineup?"Jacksonville Offering DT Henderson+ Picks for WR help
930 "The Fox" in Jacksonville is reporting the Jaguars have been in contacts with Several teams including the Cardinals Cowboys Saints Browns and Chargers in regards to acquiring Potential WR help in exchange for John Henderson and Draft picks
With Matt Jones and Jerry Porter being released and no interest in bringing back Reggie Williams, 3rd year man Mike Walker now becomes the team's #1 Wide Out. Though the Jags have been mentioned as a possible Torry Holt suitor, the Jaguars front office is rumored to have targeted several players including Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Braylen Edwards and Chris Chambers- who is in a contract year for the Chargers.
The jags pick at #8 ,#39, and #72 in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft this April.
I could see the WRs cutting into Gates' targets.IMO the answer is Gates in either case. If a TE is required, it's a nobrainer. If TE is grouped with WRs, Gates will be drafted lower, yet his production will likely be as good as or better than Jackson's. Prior to last year, Gates' worst production since he became a starter was 71/924/9. Assuming he is healthy, he's a good bet to reach or surpass those numbers.
I wouldn't want Chambers for two reasons. First off, as the #2 WR he will almost certainly get less than 100 targets. Last year, he had only 64 targets in 14 games. That is just not enough opportunity to offer value. Secondly, I was very impressed with Floyd last season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him surpass Chambers this year. At minimum, I expect him to cut into Chambers' targets, and he might eventually take the starting spot. Having the height and athleticism in Gates, Jackson, and Floyd all on the field together makes for a really tough set of matchups for the opposing defense.
Finally, I suspect Jackson's numbers may drop off a bit. Best case, I think they are similar, and that's assuming no suspension. So I think he'll be overrated this year. I posted these in the Jackson thread:
IMO the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:
The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.
Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.
Chambers had only 64 targets, a pretty low number for a starter. That could go up. Consider that he had at least 85 targets in 13 games with San Diego in 2007, despite arriving midseason. (I say at least because FBG doesn't list targets for week 20.)
Naanee and Davis combined for only 18 targets... will one or both of them have an increased role and thus more targets? I doubt it, but it's possible.
Floyd had only 37 targets. He played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on those limited targets.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season.
So where does that leave Jackson's targets? Will Rivers attempt more passes this year? His 478 attempts last season was only 11th or 12th in the NFL last season, but that is deceiving since many QBs did not play all 16 games as Rivers did... as a team, San Diego was #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.As I showed above, I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets, given the competition from the RBs, TEs, and other WRs. Jackson had 101 targets during the 2008 regular season, plus he had 9 targets in 2 playoff games. But those numbers were arguably inflated at least a bit due to injuries to Gates and Chambers.
The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often.
Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):
1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)
2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr)
3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)
4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)
He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:
Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)
Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr)
Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)
Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)
Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)
62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. It certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.