What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Which SD receiver would you want to have next year (1 Viewer)

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
So we have Chambers, VJ, and Gates...Who would you want to have on your team and at what price....

Assuming a TE starting league, You would say that Gats has more value than the other two, but what about if it was a WR only league?

THoughts?

 
WR only it'd be very close between Gates and Jackson -- if Jackson is suspended a couple of games it's easily Gates.

TE starting league I'd take Gates a round or two before Jackson.

 
I don't know their ADP's yet but I'd bet that Vjax will be overvalued and Chambers will be undervalued.

 
any thought on chambers? I hated him in Miami (thought he was overrated as a #1), and last year (pre injury) his numbers were "okay" mainly b/c he seemed to be catching a TD every game. Now he is the 3rd option on that team in the passing game (maybe 4th after sproles/LT), so where would you take him, and is he anything better than a WR4 in FF?

 
Banger said:
I don't know their ADP's yet but I'd bet that Vjax will be overvalued and Chambers will be undervalued.
I don't see it that way. The 2nd WR on San Diego typically doesn't do much and VJax is easily their #1 now.
 
Malcom Floyd
while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 target
He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.
 
I'll be curious to see how healthy Gates can get in the off season. My guess is, you'll have to continue to pay a high price in redrafts for Gates and VJ could be had in a lot of drafts as an early #2. I feel that Gates is a better every week contributor when healthy, Jackson will win you a few weeks with big games and hurt you in weeks where he is limited. I guess that is pretty standard for all WRs though.

 
IMO the answer is Gates in either case. If a TE is required, it's a nobrainer. If TE is grouped with WRs, Gates will be drafted lower, yet his production will likely be as good as or better than Jackson's. Prior to last year, Gates' worst production since he became a starter was 71/924/9. Assuming he is healthy, he's a good bet to reach or surpass those numbers.

I wouldn't want Chambers for two reasons. First off, as the #2 WR he will almost certainly get less than 100 targets. Last year, he had only 64 targets in 14 games. That is just not enough opportunity to offer value. Secondly, I was very impressed with Floyd last season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him surpass Chambers this year. At minimum, I expect him to cut into Chambers' targets, and he might eventually take the starting spot. Having the height and athleticism in Gates, Jackson, and Floyd all on the field together makes for a really tough set of matchups for the opposing defense.

Finally, I suspect Jackson's numbers may drop off a bit. Best case, I think they are similar, and that's assuming no suspension. So I think he'll be overrated this year. I posted these in the Jackson thread:

IMO the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:

The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.
Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.
Chambers had only 64 targets, a pretty low number for a starter. That could go up. Consider that he had at least 85 targets in 13 games with San Diego in 2007, despite arriving midseason. (I say at least because FBG doesn't list targets for week 20.)
Naanee and Davis combined for only 18 targets... will one or both of them have an increased role and thus more targets? I doubt it, but it's possible.
Floyd had only 37 targets. He played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on those limited targets.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season.

So where does that leave Jackson's targets? Will Rivers attempt more passes this year? His 478 attempts last season was only 11th or 12th in the NFL last season, but that is deceiving since many QBs did not play all 16 games as Rivers did... as a team, San Diego was #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.
As I showed above, I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets, given the competition from the RBs, TEs, and other WRs. Jackson had 101 targets during the 2008 regular season, plus he had 9 targets in 2 playoff games. But those numbers were arguably inflated at least a bit due to injuries to Gates and Chambers.

The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often.

Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):

1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)

2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr)

3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)

4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)

He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:

Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)

Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr)

Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)

Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)

Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)

62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. It certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.
 
Malcom Floyd
while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 target
He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.
:goodposting:I have posted similar things in other threads.
 
I'll be curious to see how healthy Gates can get in the off season. My guess is, you'll have to continue to pay a high price in redrafts for Gates and VJ could be had in a lot of drafts as an early #2. I feel that Gates is a better every week contributor when healthy, Jackson will win you a few weeks with big games and hurt you in weeks where he is limited. I guess that is pretty standard for all WRs though.
Gates is the best option... hes still TE2 IMO; I would only take Witten over him. I went after Gates in my leagues so far...Both PPR leagues1st Trade * G-Men gave up Frerotte, Gus FA QB;Betts, Ladell WAS RB;Portis, Clinton WAS RB;Gates, Antonio SDC TE; Year 2009 Draft Pick 3.02 * NO MA'AM gave up Cassel, Matt KCC QB;Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB;Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB;Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN WR;Boss, Kevin NYG TEThat was a little priceyThen I got him for Cooley / 2.02
 
Malcom Floyd
while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 target
He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.
Vincent JacksonHe has shown he is much further ahead of the curve than Floyd.Great size, and he knows how to get in the open field.I don't care if he is suspended for a couple of games, he's really showing maturity,I think VJax is the clear answer.
 
Malcom Floyd
while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 target
He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.
Vincent JacksonHe has shown he is much further ahead of the curve than Floyd.Great size, and he knows how to get in the open field.I don't care if he is suspended for a couple of games, he's really showing maturity,I think VJax is the clear answer.
If you're just saying Jackson will have more fantasy points than Floyd, I agree with that.But if you are saying Jackson is the clear choice to the poll question, I disagree. Jackson's targets are more likely to go down than up in comparison to last year, due to possible suspension, return to health of Tomlinson, Gates & Chambers, and possible emergence of Floyd. Knowing that and anticipating that Jackson's ADP will have him going in the WR15 neighborhood, he is not good value IMO.Also, I'm not so sure Jackson is way ahead of Floyd at this point. Floyd produced 27/465/4 on just 37 targets. Jackson produced 59/1098/7 on 101 targets. I fully expect Floyd to see more time on the field this year, and if Jackson draws the top corner, he could definitely lose some of his looks to Floyd.
 
Malcom Floyd
while I like what he has shown in limited opportunities, he needs an injury to Vjax or chambers to be a viable fantasy option. he's WR3, but the #5 target
He has such terrific chemistry with Rivers, I would think there's at least a chance they start rotating him with a healthy Chambers. Also, Chambers is in a contract year, so if Floyd outplays him, what's the incentive to leave Chambers in the lineup?27-465-4 on only 37 targets in basically only 9 games. The upside is bigger than anyone realizes if he can get on the field regularly.
Vincent JacksonHe has shown he is much further ahead of the curve than Floyd.Great size, and he knows how to get in the open field.I don't care if he is suspended for a couple of games, he's really showing maturity,I think VJax is the clear answer.
If you're just saying Jackson will have more fantasy points than Floyd, I agree with that.But if you are saying Jackson is the clear choice to the poll question, I disagree. Jackson's targets are more likely to go down than up in comparison to last year, due to possible suspension, return to health of Tomlinson, Gates & Chambers, and possible emergence of Floyd. Knowing that and anticipating that Jackson's ADP will have him going in the WR15 neighborhood, he is not good value IMO.Also, I'm not so sure Jackson is way ahead of Floyd at this point. Floyd produced 27/465/4 on just 37 targets. Jackson produced 59/1098/7 on 101 targets. I fully expect Floyd to see more time on the field this year, and if Jackson draws the top corner, he could definitely lose some of his looks to Floyd.
Not sure i agree with that line of reasoning. Reason Sproles and Floyd got as many targets as they did last year was because of the health of Gates, LT and Chambers. Don't see any reason that the touches of Gates, LT, Spoles, Chambers and Floyd as a whole would increase or decrease. Their total targets seem very much in line with recent years and what would be expected of the TE, #1 RB, #2 RB, #2 WR and #3 WR. They take away touches from each other, not Vjax. His role in the offense is much different.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Reason Sproles and Floyd got as many targets as they did last year was because of the health of Gates, LT and Chambers. Don't see any reason that the touches of Gates, LT, Spoles, Chambers and Floyd as a whole would increase or decrease. Their total targets seem very much in line with recent years and what would be expected of the TE, #1 RB, #2 RB, #2 WR and #3 WR. They take away touches from each other, not Vjax. His role in the offense is much different.
Well, my perspective is that Sproles and Floyd got their opportunities in part because of injury, but they were so productive with those opportunities that they will get more looks this year even if other targets are healthy. Perhaps you are right in that this will come at the expense of other RBs and Chambers, and not Jackson... but if I had to bet on whether or not Jackson will get more or less than the 101 targets he had last year, I'd take the under. We'll see what his ADP looks like in August. If he is being drafted in the top 20, I don't think he will offer good value.
 
The issue with Floyd is that outside of an injury, he's likely never going to be a startable WR play. Even if he ends up with 5-600 yards and 6 TDs, how many of those pts will actually end up in your fantasy boxscore? Unless you play in a start 5 WR league or go RB crazy the first 6 rounds of your draft, it's extremely hard to put someone in your lineup who may only get 2-3 targets a week.

As a Charger fan, I love Floyd and the element he brings to the Charger offense. Fantasy wise, I have a hard time seeing a situation where I'd actually put him in my lineup unless VJax or Chambers go down.

 
The issue with Floyd is that outside of an injury, he's likely never going to be a startable WR play. Even if he ends up with 5-600 yards and 6 TDs, how many of those pts will actually end up in your fantasy boxscore? Unless you play in a start 5 WR league or go RB crazy the first 6 rounds of your draft, it's extremely hard to put someone in your lineup who may only get 2-3 targets a week.As a Charger fan, I love Floyd and the element he brings to the Charger offense. Fantasy wise, I have a hard time seeing a situation where I'd actually put him in my lineup unless VJax or Chambers go down.
I certainly have not been advocating Floyd as a startable fantasy WR unless in extremely deep leagues. However, I think his play last year will lead to more targets this year, which could impact Jackson and Chambers. Personally, I wouldn't want Chambers in my lineup either, barring injuries to others or a radical increase in passing attempts for the Chargers offense.I do think it is possible that Floyd could have some dynasty value. Chambers is in the last year of his contract, so if Floyd plays well again this year, he could move into a starting role next year (if not this year). Meanwhile, it is very possible the offense will shift to a heavier pass ratio over the next few years as Tomlinson declines. And who knows if Sproles will be around next year. It is very possible that the Chargers WR2 could be the #3 target on the team behind Gates and WR1 by 2010 or 2011 and, with a heavier pass ratio, in line for 100+ targets. And Floyd could be that guy. It's a bit of a long shot, but Floyd should be very cheap, so it is a worthwhile gamble IMO.
 
When we are talking in the offseason, it always seems like roles are set in stone, but we know that is far from true. What exactly has Chambers done to deserve an ironclad spot in the starting lineup? I would argue that Floyd clearly outplayed Chambers last year. When Chambers and Floyd played together, the target split was 32 to 28 in favor of Chambers, but Chambers only put up 17/159/0 and Floyd put up 20/325/2. The injuries are important to bring up, and that's been mainly what has held him back, and a punctured lung ended his season prematurely last year.

Not to mention Floyd and Rivers are clearly "on the same page" - that's part of the reason Floyd is so much more productive on his targets. I see no reason that split can't tilt to Floyd next year, especially if Floyd gets to begin the year starting because of VJackson suspension. Strictly on draft pick cost/potential production ratio, Floyd is the best pick among SD passcatchers. Shoot, you'll probably be able to get him with a last round pick.

 
When we are talking in the offseason, it always seems like roles are set in stone, but we know that is far from true. What exactly has Chambers done to deserve an ironclad spot in the starting lineup? I would argue that Floyd clearly outplayed Chambers last year. When Chambers and Floyd played together, the target split was 32 to 28 in favor of Chambers, but Chambers only put up 17/159/0 and Floyd put up 20/325/2. The injuries are important to bring up, and that's been mainly what has held him back, and a punctured lung ended his season prematurely last year. Not to mention Floyd and Rivers are clearly "on the same page" - that's part of the reason Floyd is so much more productive on his targets. I see no reason that split can't tilt to Floyd next year, especially if Floyd gets to begin the year starting because of VJackson suspension. Strictly on draft pick cost/potential production ratio, Floyd is the best pick among SD passcatchers. Shoot, you'll probably be able to get him with a last round pick.
:unsure:
 
I doubt Floyd costs Chambers PT if they're both healthy. Floyd doesn't run all the routes, in fact he only runs a couple of routes. Maybe that changes this year, but I doubt it.

ETA: And nobody's mentioned Busted Davis yet. If (and it's a big if) he's healthy the organization (read A.J. Smith's ego) has enough invested in him that they'll give him one more shot to show something. Those opportunities are not going to come at Jackson's expense - it'll be Chambers and Floyd who get reduced targets in that case.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
From the For What It's Worth department, there's at least some speculation there is trade interest in Chambers. I dug this up from March 18th:

http://gryphononcowboys.blogspot.com/2009/...-henderson.html

Jacksonville Offering DT Henderson+ Picks for WR help

930 "The Fox" in Jacksonville is reporting the Jaguars have been in contacts with Several teams including the Cardinals Cowboys Saints Browns and Chargers in regards to acquiring Potential WR help in exchange for John Henderson and Draft picks

With Matt Jones and Jerry Porter being released and no interest in bringing back Reggie Williams, 3rd year man Mike Walker now becomes the team's #1 Wide Out. Though the Jags have been mentioned as a possible Torry Holt suitor, the Jaguars front office is rumored to have targeted several players including Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Braylen Edwards and Chris Chambers- who is in a contract year for the Chargers.

The jags pick at #8 ,#39, and #72 in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft this April.
In the last year of his contract, now no longer the #1, Floyd / Davis behind him, I could see Chambers being moved this offseason. As Sig said a few posts ago, "When we are talking in the offseason, it always seems like roles are set in stone, but we know that is far from true. What exactly has Chambers done to deserve an ironclad spot in the starting lineup?"
 
From the For What It's Worth department, there's at least some speculation there is trade interest in Chambers. I dug this up from March 18th:

http://gryphononcowboys.blogspot.com/2009/...-henderson.html

Jacksonville Offering DT Henderson+ Picks for WR help

930 "The Fox" in Jacksonville is reporting the Jaguars have been in contacts with Several teams including the Cardinals Cowboys Saints Browns and Chargers in regards to acquiring Potential WR help in exchange for John Henderson and Draft picks

With Matt Jones and Jerry Porter being released and no interest in bringing back Reggie Williams, 3rd year man Mike Walker now becomes the team's #1 Wide Out. Though the Jags have been mentioned as a possible Torry Holt suitor, the Jaguars front office is rumored to have targeted several players including Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore, Miles Austin, Braylen Edwards and Chris Chambers- who is in a contract year for the Chargers.

The jags pick at #8 ,#39, and #72 in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft this April.
In the last year of his contract, now no longer the #1, Floyd / Davis behind him, I could see Chambers being moved this offseason. As Sig said a few posts ago, "When we are talking in the offseason, it always seems like roles are set in stone, but we know that is far from true. What exactly has Chambers done to deserve an ironclad spot in the starting lineup?"
Interesting. How good is John Henderson nowadays? He just turned 30, and has 3 years remaining on his contract:2009: $4.2 million

2010: $5 million

2011: $5.75 million

My first reaction is San Diego should very strongly consider a deal like that. Chambers is due $4.55 million this season, so it wouldn't seem to affect San Diego's cap this year... and they would be able to cut Henderson at any point in the future if they decided he wasn't worth it, with no prorated bonuses to hit their cap.

ETA: And it isn't just Floyd and Davis behind Chambers. Naanee has showed flashes of potential too.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Gotta be careful about jettisoning Chambers so quickly. We'd be a VJax turned ankle away from a Floyd, Naanee, Buster Davis WR combo.

 
IMO the answer is Gates in either case. If a TE is required, it's a nobrainer. If TE is grouped with WRs, Gates will be drafted lower, yet his production will likely be as good as or better than Jackson's. Prior to last year, Gates' worst production since he became a starter was 71/924/9. Assuming he is healthy, he's a good bet to reach or surpass those numbers.

I wouldn't want Chambers for two reasons. First off, as the #2 WR he will almost certainly get less than 100 targets. Last year, he had only 64 targets in 14 games. That is just not enough opportunity to offer value. Secondly, I was very impressed with Floyd last season, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him surpass Chambers this year. At minimum, I expect him to cut into Chambers' targets, and he might eventually take the starting spot. Having the height and athleticism in Gates, Jackson, and Floyd all on the field together makes for a really tough set of matchups for the opposing defense.

Finally, I suspect Jackson's numbers may drop off a bit. Best case, I think they are similar, and that's assuming no suspension. So I think he'll be overrated this year. I posted these in the Jackson thread:

IMO the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:

The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.
Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.
Chambers had only 64 targets, a pretty low number for a starter. That could go up. Consider that he had at least 85 targets in 13 games with San Diego in 2007, despite arriving midseason. (I say at least because FBG doesn't list targets for week 20.)
Naanee and Davis combined for only 18 targets... will one or both of them have an increased role and thus more targets? I doubt it, but it's possible.
Floyd had only 37 targets. He played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on those limited targets.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season.

So where does that leave Jackson's targets? Will Rivers attempt more passes this year? His 478 attempts last season was only 11th or 12th in the NFL last season, but that is deceiving since many QBs did not play all 16 games as Rivers did... as a team, San Diego was #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.
As I showed above, I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets, given the competition from the RBs, TEs, and other WRs. Jackson had 101 targets during the 2008 regular season, plus he had 9 targets in 2 playoff games. But those numbers were arguably inflated at least a bit due to injuries to Gates and Chambers.

The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often.

Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):

1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)

2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr)

3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)

4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)

He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:

Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)

Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr)

Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)

Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)

Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)

62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. It certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.
I could see the WRs cutting into Gates' targets.
 
Gates is the man. Target 1. Catches all types of passes. Most importantly AG is the Primary Red Zone Target inside 15-10-5yards. VJ picked up some of the slack while Gates was hobbled.

LT and Sproles are Target 2. Usual screens, dump-out, out in the flat and super short passes. Chargers oline are great at moving around.

Vincent Jackson reverts to Target 3. Sorry Loose Circuits, Gates and LT want their ball back.

Chambers was the Belle of Rivers eye at seasons end the season prior. Easily could take over again.

Floyd is coming around. Can't dismiss his pretty numbers.

Rivers threw 34 TDs in an across the board career year last season more completions and higher yardage marks. 23tds and 22 were his previous career highs. Its fair to say he throws 26-28 in 09-10. Or will he throw closer to 23td?

 
I just traded for chambers for dirt. If he meets his projections, it was a steal, but I think based on his current value, he is an even bigger steal. A poster mentioned he only had 64 targets last year. Thats with missing 4 games and plaing hurt/PT for many of them. When healthy, he put up very respectable numbers. And if you want to mention injuries, if VJax gets hurt, where does it put his value then? Right now, you can get him in his contract year for almost nothing. I'm not saying drafting him with your 3rd round pick, but his ADP does not equal his worth or his potential upside.

All reports I have seen from the Chargers is that Floyd, Davis, and Nannee will not replace him.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top