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Which young RB would you target? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JayMan
- Start date
bostonfred
Footballguy
Bush
Addai
Maroney
Peterson
Jones-Drew
Lynch
Williams
Addai
Maroney
Peterson
Jones-Drew
Lynch
Williams
LBH
Footballguy
Best situation=Addai
el-gato-grande
Footballguy
Michael Turner 
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I'm not a Maroney fan, and I have Addai well ahead of him, but he did look VERY impressive early last season.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I may swith Addai and Maroney, but this is is dead on.
Reservoir Dog
Footballguy
1. MJD
2. Addai
3. Maroney
4. Bush
5. Peterson
6. D.Williams
7. Lynch
2. Addai
3. Maroney
4. Bush
5. Peterson
6. D.Williams
7. Lynch
TheFanatic
Footballguy
LBH
Footballguy
durability really concerns me more than ability with Maroney. Living in NE, i saw all his games and will agree that he did look impressive early before he had his shoulder injury
Family Matters
Footballguy
This is an interesting question because there is some unknown factors. But the first question becomes is this PPR or not? That makes a huge impact on Bush. In PPR Bush & AP are very close. Non PPR, Bush drops to about #4 on this list. Not knowing, I'd say AP. I might feel differently after I see him play a few games in the NFL but I doubt it.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Lets not get carried away...
It's cute all the sheep voting Bush because he tells them about tasty subway sandwiches.Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Yeah, thats probably the reason, not because the guy is a freak talent. I like these guys who call others sheep because they agree on things that are usually pretty obvious.It's cute all the sheep voting Bush because he tells them about tasty subway sandwiches.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Best post ever!
Nookular Power
Footballguy
I've thought Peterson since the Texas game his freshman year -- in the same game that told me Benson wouldn't be a superstar. I like my stud RB to show up big in big games (why do we demand this from QBs, but not from other positions?). AD won that game for Oklahoma. Benson was a non-factor. I think Peterson stands out in this way, over everyone else on the list -- Bush included.
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
What about Norwood? I think he could emerge as Dunn declines. I have Norwood, Addai, Maroney, and Parker in my keeper(8) league so I hope you're all right on.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Joseph Addai caught 10 balls and had 143 total yards in helping his team win the Super Bowl which is the biggest stage in football. Let us not fogot he did this as a rookie.Before someone posts how did Rhodes do in that same game? He had 121 total yards.Also, Indy rewarded Addai by allowing Rhodes to leave and not bringing in anyone to date.Right now, I don't know how Addai could not be seen as number 1 due to talent and opportunity.Bush may be more talented but that doesen't always produce more fantasy points. As of right now and looking into the futue I see it like this: 1) Addai2) Bush3) MJD4) Peterson5) Lynch6) Maroney7) Williams
jetpack
Footballguy
Also like Addai.
Nookular Power
Footballguy
True enough -- I was thinking college performance, but you bring up a good point about Addai. Still, while Addai has shown he's got the goods to be big-time in the NFL, and he's in a great situation, I think on pure talent, I still take Peterson. For as good a situation as Addai is in, can he really be expected to do better than Edge in Indy? A consistent top 10 guy, how often was he top 5? I think Peterson is the kind of RB that (barring injury) becomes consistently top 5 on talent -- as LT has done.
To those high on Addai, what are your thoughts on coach Dungy's insistence that he is going to run a two-back system? Granted it's hard to see Dorsey getting as much time as Rhodes did, but if that is Dungy's philosophy and he won a Superbowl with it, don't you need to consider that. If you're talking about a long-term dynasty pick then it seems logical that if Dorsey doesn't pan out that Addai may initially benefit, but it's only a matter of time before Dungy finds a suitable replacement and then Addai's numbers go back down.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
I don't want to make this an Addai thread as there is a lot of good info here.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...61&hl=Addai
I think Dee Dee is much less of a threat to take carries than McAllister is to Bush or Freddy is to MJD.
doowain
Footballguy
Anyone who doesn't pick Bush is out of their mind. Did you not see this guy the second half of last year when everything finally clicked for him? He was virtually unstoppable and he was sharing duty. He doesn't need 20-25 touches a game to get you the points you need. On any given play he can take it to the house. Can Addai do that? I don't think so. Not to mention that Deuce is 29 and will either move on or take a backseat in the next year or so.
And if your league is PPR, I don't see how you can even begin to argue against Reggie.
Bush
MJD
Peterson
Addai
Maroney
DWill
Lynch
And if your league is PPR, I don't see how you can even begin to argue against Reggie.
Bush
MJD
Peterson
Addai
Maroney
DWill
Lynch
Last edited by a moderator:
dparker713
Footballguy
Long term dynasty RB1 is an oxymoron.
Whiplash Inc.
Footballguy
Torn between Maroney and Peterson...voted Maroney.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
1) Bush
2) Maroney
3) Addai
4) Peterson
5) MJD
6) D-Will
7)Lynch
2) Maroney
3) Addai
4) Peterson
5) MJD
6) D-Will
7)Lynch
Blackjacks
Footballguy
or the next Quentin Griffin
Family Matters
Footballguy
You make some good points and the you're right that PPR improves his value considerably. What concerns me the most is the inconsistency from week to week. You talk about the improved performance in the 2nd half and what sticks out is the woeful; rushing performance. In weeks 9-16 (last 8 for most FF leagues) he rushed 82-333-5 for a 4.06 YPC. His YPC isn't exciting but it's very concerning to recognize that 1 game is what got him there. Week 16 against the NYG's he was 20-126. Without that game his YPC is 3.33! I know we don't take away games so I'm not saying that but I am saying that he is very inconsistent and that hurts his value in non-ppr leagues. Also 3 of his 5 TD's where in 1 game. Think about him as the main RB. If he continues to underperform as a RB with YPC totals under 4 then that might hurt his value as a receiver as well. He may need a compliment in order to be effective so I'm not sure how that plays out. PPR leagues make his value secure. Non-PPR leagues adds some risk.
So while I understand your enthusiasm for him and agree he can take it to the house any play, the reality is that you're going to get some bad games and that can kill a FF team. Bad games during your FF playoffs will keep you from winning championships.
Would I consider him at 6? Absolutely. Is that a cold stone lock? Not exactly.
Depends on your definition of long term. If you're talking 10 years or more then I'd agree. But I look at dynasty leagues in 4 year increments when it comes to RBs. And barring injury, it's likely that the RB1 on any given team is going to be the same guy over a four year span (unless you are one of those trade happy guys who makes moves just to make them). Example:I have one team in transition. My RBs are Travis Henry, Cedric Benson, Adrian Peterson (CHI), Adrian Peterson (MIN), Anthony Thomas, Chris Brown and Michael Turner. This year Henry will most likely be my RB1. But I expect AD to take over that role for the four years after that. Anything beyond four years will be gravy and is not expected.
SSOG
Moderator
Drop Maroney to 5 and maybe bump Lynch to 6 (or have DWill and Lynch tied for 6), and I agree 100%. Give me the bowling ball any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Griffin never topped 406 total yards or 3 total TDs in a single season. He also never had more than 3.7 ypc in any season ever. MJD last year had 1377 total yards and 15 TDs. He also had 5.7 ypc. Outside of the height thing, I can't think of a worse possible comparison for MJD. If you want to argue that MJD might bust, try to come up with an RB who had a great rookie season who quickly became a has-been, not an RB that had a legitimately bad rookie season with one good game who quickly became a never-was.The only RB I can think of who was very good his rookie season and then never reproduced that was Anthony Thomas, but A-Train was no where NEAR MJD's level as a rookie. Generally, once a back produces like MJD produced, there's no way he's falling into irrelevance outside of injury or being relegated to a backup role. I'd welcome anyone who could come up with examples to the contrary.That said, the Barry Sanders comparison is also a bad one, since the two RBs really have nothing in common except for their lack of height. Sanders was a shifty, elusive RB who dances a lot and avoids contact. MJD is a bowling ball on crack- he doesn't run around you, he just runs right through you, instead.Also, just for something to consider, here is a complete list of RBs to get 150+ carries and finish the year with a better ypc than Maurice Jones-Drew did last year. Remember, this is the COMPLETE list, dating back to 1960: Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, O.J. Simpson, John David Crowe, Napolean Kaufman, Paul Lowe. In 46 seasons, that's it.or the next Quentin Griffin
Jedimaster21
Footballguy
Peterson in standard formats. Bush in PPR.
JayMan
Footballguy
Good point... never thought about that...The only counter-examples I could come up with are - and that's probably proving your point even more! (injuries probably causing most of the drops - I excluded Robert Edwards for the same argument) - and it might be argued that their rookie season was not even on par with MJD's:
Ickey Woods
Code:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1988 cin | 16 | 203 1066 5.3 15 | 21 199 9.5 0 || 1989 cin | 2 | 29 94 3.2 2 | 0 0 0.0 0 || 1990 cin | 10 | 64 268 4.2 6 | 20 162 8.1 0 || 1991 cin | 9 | 36 97 2.7 4 | 6 36 6.0 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 37 | 332 1525 4.6 27 | 47 397 8.4 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Code:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1995 chi | 16 | 296 1074 3.6 10 | 7 56 8.0 0 || 1996 chi | 12 | 143 496 3.5 3 | 7 44 6.3 1 || 1997 chi | 3 | 31 112 3.6 0 | 2 20 10.0 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 31 | 470 1682 3.6 13 | 16 120 7.5 1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Code:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1985 cle | 16 | 222 1104 5.0 7 | 29 297 10.2 3 || 1986 cle | 12 | 174 665 3.8 10 | 28 292 10.4 0 || 1987 cle | 12 | 201 735 3.7 5 | 32 223 7.0 1 || 1988 cle | 11 | 123 485 3.9 3 | 11 87 7.9 0 || 1989 cle | 4 | 37 130 3.5 1 | 2 7 3.5 0 || 1990 cle | 14 | 158 702 4.4 5 | 42 360 8.6 2 || 1991 cle | 14 | 197 726 3.7 8 | 40 255 6.4 2 || 1992 cle | 12 | 169 543 3.2 6 | 13 81 6.2 0 || 1993 cle | 4 | 10 33 3.3 1 | 0 0 0.0 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 99 | 1291 5123 4.0 46 | 197 1602 8.1 8 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Code:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1974 sdg | 12 | 227 1162 5.1 7 | 26 349 13.4 3 || 1975 sdg | 5 | 87 317 3.6 2 | 13 101 7.8 0 || 1976 sdg | 11 | 126 450 3.6 3 | 34 224 6.6 1 || 1977 sdg | 14 | 118 405 3.4 1 | 18 218 12.1 1 || 1978 sdg | 16 | 151 514 3.4 3 | 34 295 8.7 0 || 1979 sdg | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || 1980 sdg | 2 | 4 10 2.5 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || 1980 sfo | 10 | 50 229 4.6 0 | 20 171 8.6 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 85 | 763 3087 4.0 16 | 145 1358 9.4 5 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Blackjacks
Footballguy
Griffin never topped 406 total yards or 3 total TDs in a single season. He also never had more than 3.7 ypc in any season ever. MJD last year had 1377 total yards and 15 TDs. He also had 5.7 ypc. Outside of the height thing, I can't think of a worse possible comparison for MJD. If you want to argue that MJD might bust, try to come up with an RB who had a great rookie season who quickly became a has-been, not an RB that had a legitimately bad rookie season with one good game who quickly became a never-was.or the next Quentin Griffin
The only RB I can think of who was very good his rookie season and then never reproduced that was Anthony Thomas, but A-Train was no where NEAR MJD's level as a rookie. Generally, once a back produces like MJD produced, there's no way he's falling into irrelevance outside of injury or being relegated to a backup role. I'd welcome anyone who could come up with examples to the contrary.
That said, the Barry Sanders comparison is also a bad one, since the two RBs really have nothing in common except for their lack of height. Sanders was a shifty, elusive RB who dances a lot and avoids contact. MJD is a bowling ball on crack- he doesn't run around you, he just runs right through you, instead.
Also, just for something to consider, here is a complete list of RBs to get 150+ carries and finish the year with a better ypc than Maurice Jones-Drew did last year. Remember, this is the COMPLETE list, dating back to 1960: Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, O.J. Simpson, John David Crowe, Napolean Kaufman, Paul Lowe. In 46 seasons, that's it.
After training camp and the first game of the season everyone was stating the same thing.... That the "Q" was the next Barry Sanders. I was joking when I said this, MJD had a great rookie season and could get better with time but the next Barry....I think not.
ExtraPoint
Footballguy
Wouldnt be happy with some of these guys as my RB1 over the long run. Peterson and Maroney are the safest bets by far. I think Williams will soon be RB1 material and definately like him long term. Bush is a definate long term RB2 with RB1 potential and Drew is pretty much the same. Would not be happy at all if Addai or Lynch was locked into my RB1 spot for very long. Addai is mostly a product of the system. He might not be Indy's long term solution so he shouldnt be yours. Lynch is a nice prospect but unlike Peterson, he's not a lock to be an NFL stud.
1. Peterson
2. Maroney
3. Williams
4. Bush
5. Drew
6. Lynch
7. Addai
1. Peterson
2. Maroney
3. Williams
4. Bush
5. Drew
6. Lynch
7. Addai
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
How do you have any proof that Addai is not Indy's long term solution? Is it the fact that they did not draft a RB? or let go of a veteran who knew their system extremely well? or is it they have stud RB's backing him up? All the arrows point to Addai being the solution. The only thing Indy has done this off season is made it more apparent that he is their long term solution. Since when is being a product of a system such a bad thing in the fantasy world. I am extremely pleased that Addai is Indy's starting rb. Whether he would do well somewhere else has no bearing on where he is playing. Addai is Indy's starting RB, and since Indy is the most consistent offense in the NFL year in and year out, I am happy to have those products of good systems.You also pick Peterson and Maroney as your safest bets when neither of them have carried the load for a full season in the NFL. I agree that both can/may be studs, but safest bets I can't agree with. You also make a bold prediction of putting Williams ahead of far safer players which baffles me. I like that you are throwing yourself out there by making different projections, but your rationale is not clear to me.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Wow there's a lot of top-notch young talent at RB in the NFL right now.
SSOG
Moderator
Oh, well I can agree with that. The only thing MJD and Sanders have in common is that they're both very short and they both had good rookie seasons. Generally, I hate all "X is the next Y" comparisons, since there will never be another Barry Sanders. The real question is whether 10 years from now we'll be wondering if someone else is the next MJD.
