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WHITE ELEPHANT FINAL STUFF (1 Viewer)

renesauz

IBL Representative
INTRO:

While we have all had fun participating in the White Elephant draft, to this point we have had a very difficult time determining just how fair the draft is. In other words, is it a viable format, or just a quirky variation good only for having fun and passing some time? Is it fair enough to be used in a money league?

What about all of the theories proposed during the draft? Is there an advantage to drafting on the ends?

In order to attempt to figure that out, it was necessary to grade and rank the resulting teams. In an effort to help reduce any possible bias, I had printed the teams out without the names or draft positions attached, and then waited a couple of days. The idea was to blind myself to the draft position as I judged the result. Because we were not aware of the byes until very late in the draft, I didn't use bye weeks as a critical componant in determining a rank. I could not throw them out entirely though, as in serveral instances the bye weeks had a significant impact on late round strategy. In those case, I made small adjustments to compensate (such as assuming the drafter would have taken another WR when they were forced to take a third QB, etc.)

Obviously, I still recognised my own, and one or two other teams. I must acknowledge that an arbitrary ranking of teams is at best an imperfect way to judge the fairness and viability of the draft, but I fail to see any alternative method to judge by. It is highly unlikely that anybody who participated would rank the teams in the exact same order I did. I'm not sure that that matters though. I strongly suspect that the rankings generated by anybody else would lead to very similar conclusions.

Immediately after doing rankings, I went back and started studying how the draft played out. How did we each aquire our players (by steal, fresh pick, repick). Was there any useful information or clues there? I checked the first five rounds first, then the whole draft.

Finally, I tried to draw conclusions.

I have to apologize for being so slow to post all of this. The two days I waited to do the rankings slowed the process in a necessary way. I didn't want to post the blog until I could post everything simply because I didn't want to compromise my efforts with too much discussion before I was done.

For this thread:

POST 1: Intro

POST 2: Blog

POST 3: General Statistics

POST 4: Rankings/Ratings

POST 5: Conclusions

Let me know what you agree/disagree with and why. Who agrees with my general conclusions?

 
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White Elephant Blog 2008 Edition:Mon 3/24, 5:30pmThis draft was such a pain to track last year, I was going to let it go unless someone brought it up. And they did of course, as I knew they would. Now that it has started, I'm kind of glad. The strategy of this draft is very intriguing. We have 16 this year (only 14 last year) and 13 of last year's participants returned for this one. It's farly obvious too by the picks being made in the first round. Tom Brady was pick 1, with Reggie Bush pick 2 (Reggie Bush???!!!) Reaper took Steven Jackson at #3...fairly good chance that will get stolen, but that is much like my Westbrook pick last year...by the time someone realizes they might be able to steal (and hold) Jackson, there may well be better targets available (like LT.) Speaking of LT, he hasn't been taken yet. Pasquino took Westbrook at 1.4 knowing he'd get stolen. The only real surprise to this point is Fro stealing Westy at only pick 1.7...he'll never hold him at that draft slot, so that's probably our first wasted steal attempt. I had a real hard time choosing who to take at 1.10. I figured I had little hope of holding LT, Jackson, or Westbrook. Wasn't sure about Peterson either. Thought about going with a high WR like Wayne. In the end went with Peterson. If he's stolen, I may get a shot at LT (unlikely), or can at least still pick up Wayne. Rudnicki just took LT at pick 11. The first turn should be the most interesting.11 pmFive straight steals after Ruds' pick, including Westbrook TWICE! I guess folks aren't remembering ALL of their lessons from last year, as none of these steals are locked. I still have ADP, but I'm not very confidant that I'll keep him. Duckboy is OTC at 1.16. He's pretty certain to steal LT, and lock him. These early rounds are the worst for tracking, as steals fly hot and heavy. No huge surprises in the first round players taken. There are already five repicks outstanding.Tues 3/25, 8:15amGood activity overnight, but only one steal. As expected, Duckboy stole LT at the turn and promptly locked him up. Old Milwaukee may have reached slightly with Braylon Edwards at 2.2, obviously hoping to keep him and save his own steals. Blue-Kun took Wayne, and I can steal him, but there's little hope I could hold him. ADP is not quite locked up for me, but I am only a couple picks away. :P The only real surprise at this point is that so few people have repicked after being robbed. Looking over the draft board again, there's a few people who could steal ADP from me that could leave me scrambling for first round value if that happens. None of them can do it safely before I lock my pick though, so I SHOULD be ok.12pm:Well, Pasquino screwed me a little by stealing ADP right before my pick. I stole Gore from Pictus cat and immediately locked him up with my second round pick (Willie parker...I'll never hold him), so I still got appropriate first round value. Jeff, on the other had, really took a bad risk. EVERYONE between him and me can re-steal ADP now, and three of those people have repicks outstanding (so can lock their steal). After several PM's with Jeff, it's obvious he didn't think through the second part of the steal test well, and didn't realize that if he loses ADP, he can only re-steal players taken FRESH after his steal. He'd be stuck with late first round value AT BEST, and probably late second round also.12:30pm:Like last year, I'm getting constant messages. A couple of people have already jumped on Jeff's mistake without my help. I didn't offer anyone direct advice, but I did message several people with outstanding repicks basicly telling them to be careful with their steals, that they would be suprised who they COULD, and couldn't, steal.5:30pmRudy stole and locked up ADP, basicly screwing Jeff. Meanwhile, Fro used his second steal to secure Jones-Drew as his first round pick. Hard to beleive he used up two steals to get late first value at the 1.7 position! Meanwhile, Rudnicki had two picks stolen (LT and Jones-Drew) but hasn't used a steal. The only other guys with all five steals left either went clean through round 1, or have a re-pick outstanding. Ruds has McGahee locked for round one, and currently holds Ronnie Brown for round 2. With all five steals in hand, I'd say he's not far behind the curve....unlike Jeff and Fro. Road Warriors just posted...apparently he had ADP in his sights too if Rudy missed it, and he and I never had any messages. He stole and locked Clinton Portis...first round value, but a far cry from ADP!11pmVery good progress overall. Several more picks have gone since I last updated here. Jeff waited until his pick, and then stole Ryan Grant. I don't understand that move. He has Grant ranked #18 in his dynasty rankings, so he shouldn't be any higher for redraft (I wouldn't think). Brown was the last RB taken as #16, so I can't see why Jeff would use a steal to pick a RB who is LOWER then at least a couple still on his own cheatsheet. I messaged him asking for his thoughts, so hopefully I can clear it up. With Jeff's steal, the first round is finally locked up. The only real surprise is Ryant Grant, although I would not have predicted BOTH Brady and Manning to go, and Moss as the only WR. After a bunch of messages back and forth with Jeff, I've come to understand that he values Grant much higher in PPR, while the fynasty ranks are NOT PPR. Even with that, he seems to think that Grant will be worth less long term then this year. I can't help but think there's something missing in his methodology there.Wed 3/26, 9pmI checked here this morning fairly early, and only opne or two picks had passed from last night. But then I wasn't able to log back on until around 6PM...WOW. Not only was I on the clock (by an hour), but at least 8 steals happened today, several times the same player more then once. (Reggie Wayne was stolen 3 or 4 times) My Willie Parker pick made it through clean, which was a mild surprise, but not unpleasent. At my turn, I had to go WR, but really didn't see any good ones I could safely steal, especially without a way to lock it. I had hoped to get Andre Johnson, but Reaper used his second round REpick for him, and locked him with his third in the same post. I could have stolen Ocho Cinco, but 4 or 5 others could have restolen him. In the end, I was forced to pick fresh, and will not have a top-notch WR1. At least I got two RB1's instead. I took Brandon Marshall. With this league being PPR, I can't imagine better then a 50/50 to keep him.A couple of guys wasted some steals..Rodys is already down to 2 left. Shadowphunk is the only one with all five left, but I'm not in love with his start (Randy Moss at 1.05, Welker at 2.12, and Carson Palmer in the 3rd...I suppose Palmer might get stolen.) There is a pretty wide disparity between teams right now, with several I really like through two locked picks(myself, Duckboy, OldMilwaukee, Rudy, Reaper), and several I really think are in trouble (Jeter, Shadowphunk, Rudnicki.)Thurs 3/27, 10amSome drama late last night after I wrote in this blog. I had just updated the locked picks thread, and written here when Old Milwaukee PM'd me his third round pick. STEAL REGGIE WAYNE! I had already posted Wayne as a locked pick (with a disclaimer in that thread not to rely on that thread), so I was initially shocked. After I looked back carefully, I found he could steal Wayne. Even better, he could only do so because of how Wayne was stolen multiple times and ultimately wound up with the guy drafting RIGHT AFTER OM in the third....Duckboy. Theoreticly, it is only one pick away from the maximum distance between when a player is first chosen from the player pool, and when he is finally locked on somebodies roster. I was so excited when I realized it wasn't only legal, but nobody could steal him back (everybody else already either owned him or had a chance to steal him) that I actually posted the steal prematurely and had to delete the post. The steal gives OM a dominant start with Addai, Braylon Edwards, and Reggie Wayne. The potential saving grace for the rest of us is the team combo of Wayne/Addai. It was a brilliant steal by OM. I completely missed even the potential of it because I didn't look back that far when determining locked picks, but Duckboy apparently knew it was possible when he first made the steal, and determined it was a nice risk to take. I agree...with all of the traffic in that round, it was possible nobody would notice. If OM did figure it out, he would still be taking his second stud COLT...something many people hate doing in these because it can kill you on the bye. (Speaking of which...why in the world take two RECIEVERS from the same team to start!!!!(Shadow took Moss and Welker.)) Duckboy did, in fact, have a decent backup plan, and his ability to lock up both his 2nd and 3rd on the spot helped him a little. He stole and locked up Holt (hardly a disaster for WR1), and ROY WILLIAMS. I had considered Williams with my last pick, but knew I couldn't hold him. Since williams was the highest WR left for me, I took my 2nd or 3rd rated guy (Marshall) HOPING somebody would steal him, and give me the chance to steal/lock Williams later. SO much for that plan...now I'm praying Marshall goes clean, but that doesn't seem likely.And that's the funny thing about this draft format. Sometimes when you make a steal...you are screwing over somebody BESIDES the person you stole from.11pm:Quiet day. Part of that was me as I held the draft up a while. Got caught with a sick kid, then a sick fiance', and didn't check in. I had been 4 or 5 picks away when I loked around 1:30 or so, but was 6 hours OTC when I looked at 9:30!!Also quiet for lack of steals. The last 8 players drafted have been fresh picks, and like 13 of the last 15. There are a few repicks outstanding, but the tiers now are big enough that most people are going to wait for their turns before using a steal, if then. Brandon Marshall made it through for me without getting stolen. There were only a few players even available for stealing for me in round 4. Since I could lock none, and none seemed much better then what was available in the pool, I chose a fresh pick, Jerricho Cotchery. I considered going QB, but I really want McNabb (I think he's been terribly underrated this year) and I should be able to get him later. Considered TE, but the elite ones are gone...the next five or six are relatively equal. Didn't consider RB for long as I already have two decent ones. So I went WR...you can never have too many decent receivers in these survivor leagues. Probably should have taken another RB, as that was where the best value seemed to be, oddly enough.Fri 3/28, 9:30amNothing significant overnight. A couple fresh picks, and a couple of QB's swiped. Makes me a little uneasy about McNabb, as 7 QB's are gone now, all of them locked up. Thinking Cotchery is likely to make it through too, leaving me limited options if he does. That's one thing I really don't like about this draft. In any other draft, you can reach a little to get somebody you really want. In this one, you have to reach a LOT if you want to gaurentee holding onto somebody. Early fourth round (by this year's early ADP's) is way too early for McNabb, while late fifth is about right. I think McNabb is probably worth an early fourth, but I'm in the vast minority on that, and won't reach. Keeping my fingers crossed........11am:Several more picks in the last couple of hours. Noticed that a top WR went through unmolested (stolen)...OCHO CINCO!! Radballs had taken him at 3.01. TONS of steals/resteals/repicks etc. all the way through the third round into the early fourth. Duckboy was the last one who could have stolen and locked him as a steal, and he took Roy Williams as a fresh pick (and immediately locked him with his 4.01.) A few others could have stolen him with a make-up pick and locked him, but the players they got are at least in the ballpark (Colston, Boldin, Fitzgerald)...a couple others were, at least in my opinion, a lot lower (Holmes.) There were a couple of guys, like me, who could have stolen, but were using fresh picks, and were a long way from locking the steal. Just luck, as nobody had the no-brainer steal except maybe Blue-Kun (Used repick to get Santonio Holmes with his second rounder late in the third.) Duckboy could have, but I can see somebody choosing a fresh pick on Roy Williams instead of using the steal, especially with the natural lock in the same post. Duckboy wasted a couple steals earlier too, and already only has 2 left, making it even more sensible for him to go with Williams. Just one of those lucky, oddball things with this elephant format I guess.11:30am:Radballs just picked to end the fourth. He stole Chris Cooley. That surprised me because Jeff had stolen him 5 or 6 picks earlier. Worse...that's another wasted steal for Jeff, who's already down to 2 left. Cooley robbed twice in the fourth? Can't see him worth that. Poor Jeff! LOL..and he's not real happy about it.9:20pmMade my fifth round pick a little while ago. I took McNabb. No clue whether I can keep him, but I don't like my chances of stealing him next round, and there are no no-brainer RBs or WRs that I could take and hope get stolen. My other thought was Mendenhall. There's at least a chance I could get both of them. It's been somewhat quiet today, with very few steals. In fact, only one steal so far in the fifth round, and no repicks. Actually, only Blu-Kun and Duckboy have outstanding repicks. It's made things easier for me in tracking the draft, but it's a little surprising as most people still have 3 steals, and several have 4. 11:15pm:Several picks since last post, and one steal (Ruds stole Graham from Jeter). Jeter then repicked Mendenhall from the pool. I messaged Jeter; "nice pick. I ALMOST took him myself. Hoped he'd last until after the turn so I might have a shot next round. Of course, if McNabb gets stolen......" his response:"Thanks, After Housh got stolen, I ended up waiting the whole almost 2 rounds to make my repick, so I knew I wanted to try something different this time. I think Anderson may get swiped, but if he does, other guys are using their steals and there are a couple of others I like, so win win, hopefully." MY REPLY AGAIN:"good thinking. If there are several guys you think are close together, there is no sense waiting for your turn for a simple repick. You may entice somebody else into a steal, and if you don't, you still get your first choice, AND keep more options open for your next pick."Not a real big deal, but thought I'd copy those here. Nice strategy thoughts for future elephant rookies (if we ever run this type of draft again)Sun Mar30, midnight:VERY SLOW weekend. All opf the PDSL's are kicking off, but you would think that that would help keep things lively. There were only like 3 picks all day today, and not much better yesterday. One guy almost timed out yesterday (less then 20 min from it), and another was an hour short today. Yet another will timeout at 9 AM if he doesn't pick.I did make a pick late last night (Derrick Mason), and managed to keep McNabb. Real happy about that...I really think he's due for a QB2-3 type year, and he may be the SOD at QB9.Somebody posted something about thinking that five steals is too many for this draft. Not sure I agree with that, but it's worth looking at closer later. The steals have slowed down a lot more then the picks themselves, with only 3 in the fifth round and o1 in the sixth. duckboy is down to 1 left, a few others are at 2, but most have three and 3 of us still have four left.Hopefully, things pick back up tomorrow.Tues, Apr1, 8 am:Was much busier yesterday, and we made good progress. The steals are very slow now, but JeffPas. managed to use this last....foolishly it look sto me. He had stolen Mendenhal without being able to lock him...and Radballs stole him again a few picks later. In retaliation, Jeff stole Rad's 7.1 pick (Bobby Engram) with his 6.13 (makeup pick) AND LAST STEAL, locking him with his 7.4 (Travis Henry). I've had a couple of PM's from Jeff nervous about keeping Henry. I had to point out to him that Radballs could actually steal Henry from him! He isn't likely to as he is strong at RB right now, but he could. There's been a lot of talk in the discussion thread about steals, and several guys saying how the ends have such a big advanatage because of the natural locks on the steals. I just posted this in that thread:Not trying to :unsure: , but I don't get the whine. I have been at the end, and fully understand/appreciate the advantage of such....and the disadvantages. The guys at the end HAVE to use their steals early to get even close to early round value. If not, they will fall behiind very quickly. The only reason Radballs has a steal left is because he went with Brady at the 1.1 pick. We also see that he's in a bind at WR after having a couple of those taken. Played out wisely (few wasted steals), the guys at the end should be out or very low, and the guys in the middle should still have a bunch of steals.From the end, if your seoncd pick gets stolen, it is almost two full rounds before you can safely take and lock another....meaning when the DB's 2.1 selection goes, he never had more then one player he could safely steal at any time UNTIL he was up for his 3.16...not a given to get second round value at that point, and IMPOSSIBLE without executing a steal. Then, he's FORCED to use a fresh pick for his 4.1, so cannot get any extraordinary value there. IE: While the ends have a natural advantage via the natural lock, they also have fewer/less strategy they CAN employ, and are far more vulnerable to position runs/etc. then in any other serpentine draft because they will be out of steals first.The guys in the middle shouldn't be vulnerable to position runs, but have to be far more careful as to who/how they steal. There are never more then a couple guys we in the middle can safely steal on any given pick, but there are ALWAYS guys we can steal. We can ALWAYS get appropriate round value...and if wise, don't have to burn steals to do so. Later, we can make sure that the end guys get caught by position runs. We can, if we choose, make sure they lack a DEF2, or K2, or viable TE2. BUT WE HAVE TO BE PATIENT and that means not stealing a coveted player unless we're sure we can keep him. IN the first couple of rounds, that might also mean taking somebody other then the BPA (though we should never go very far down the list).In short Jeff, you're whining just a little too much. You wasted/burned a couple of steals foolishly, and are the first to be out of them, when you should be among the last. If there was any lesson you should have remembered from last year it was this one: NEVER WASTE A STEAL.I am NOT saying that it's better to be in the middle then the end...far from it. I do prefer the end..but no more so then preferring to be in the top 3 in a normal draft. Being in the center in WE is like being at the 15/16 in a normal draft. There is a disadvantage, but it isn't an overwhelming one as long as you're patient.Now, at this point, I still have 4 steals. I have what I consider to be a strong candidate as the QB1, and two solid RB's in Gore and Parker. I'm not in love with Marshall as my WR1, but Marshall/Cotchery/Mason/Porter looks like a very strong first 4! 11 TE's have already gone, so I'm screwed for a TE1...but also have no reason to rush to get one since there are no good ones left. I have a lot of flexibility at this point!!! I would have liked to get a good QB2, but I probably waited a round too long for that (probably should have gotten one instead of Porter). I'll probably spend the next couple of picks on RBs, but I won't hold myself to that. I really like my start! Also thinking about stealing Aaron Rogers from Pictus cat. It would involve some risk because I can't lock him, but with 4 steals I can afford to take the chance, especially at this point where it won't kill me if he's stolen.10amSent Jeff a PM asking what he thought of me stealing Rogers. I know I've been giving him a hard time about wasted steals, but his risks were well thought out except for the ADP steal in the first, and I 'm mildly surprised he got nailed on every chance he took. (It's made him a bit bitter at the moment though...lol.) I also replied that I couldn't see Radballs stealing his RB since Rad already has 3 or 4 Rb's and is short on WR's. He posted in the discussion thread basicly calling BS, and this PM:

I thought the same damn thing when I took Mendenhall.BTW, I responded to you. I don't agree with your assessments. :)
My PM back:"I know you don't....but I didn't completely disagree with you ...I just think you're grossly overstating the advantages of the ends. Mendenhal was a calculated risk probably worth taking. You lost another steal if I recall that also seemed worth it. But Engram? There were too many similar WR's at that point (IMO) to use your last steal on him. And don't forget ADP...that one really hurt you because it was so early.You've had some bad luck in this draft, but you've also taken some unnecessary chances.Go back and look at the final results from last year...the final rosters. They weren't imbalanced. So far this year, this years don't seem to be either.I agree that using steals on backups isn't sexy, but your own experiance has shown that it's difficult to use those steals on your favorite starters also. I think the key (at least from the middle of the order) is to use your steals to CYA, and make sure you get appropriate round value, rather then to stress over a specific coveted player. Then you can use those steals to pick up your favorite sleepers!Or are you saying that a smart, talented staffer such as yourself doesn't have a few favorite sleepers? Guys ranked in the 12-15th rounds that you think will be worthy of 5-6th round picks when the season is over?From what I've seen in these surviver drafts, your early round picks only decide things NEGATIVELY, when they get hurt. The winners are usually guys who hit on the mid to late round gems. Taking Moss in the 5th last year, nabbing Westbrook at RB4, Welker in the ninth (or whenever he went). you are spurning the middle rounds...but while you can lose these leagues in the early rounds, you can only WIN THESE IN THE MIDDLE ROUNDS!I'm also drafting from the middle..is my team hateful? I've had better luck, but I haven't wasted chances either. And don't forget...I should have had ADP as my RB1 instead of Gore. (Can't remember who stole him, but they basicly helped someone else aquire him that should have never had a shot :shock: )"Still disagreeing:
I think you're underestimating the advantage of certainty.At 1.01 and 1.16, you KNOW who you will have rather than having to hope that they lock up.I'm also at a disadvantage because Radballs / Ollie is a West Coaster - the time spent on the clock can be costly.BTW - Engram IS one of my sleepers - and I think he's a solid WR2 in this format this year. He's the #1 WR for Hasselbeck this year. (Burleson is also a good choice.)I have >>20 players I really like, so picking amongst the scraps (and only sweating 3 guys at the turn) will allow be to pick easier.I still say the shot at ADP was worth it, especially with Grant on the board.Plus on Engram - Radballs deserved to be screwed.
If Engram is one of your sleeper guys...more power to it. I can't/won't fault that. Yeah...the end guys know who they will lock up in the first couple rounds, but look at it this way...if you were drafting 1.9 in a normal draft, would you ever get ADP, LT, or Westy? Or would you be happy Gore fell, or Grant was there for you? You are trying to force the draft with your steals, instead of letting the draft come to you. When I drafted ADP, he was the top player on my board, but I'd also determined that I had a very realistic chance to keep him and could steal appropriate round value if I didn't. Parker in the second was highest RB on my board, but I would have preferred a WR. I was more concerned with making sure I got appropriate round value though, and felt the top WR's would all be stolen...I didn't think I was in a good spot to keep a top WR without using steals I'd rather save...so I took a RB appropriate to the draft spot knowing there was a decent chance he'd slip through, but OK if he didn't. In the third, I again took a guy who was not my absolute favorite at the spot, but who I felt was appropriate to the position, AND likely to slip through...and he did.Now, I have what I believe is a solid squad, and have tons of flexibility with my steals. Had I been drafting at 1.9, I likely would have had NONE of my first four picks on my team...but that doesn't make it a bad team! There are several sleeper picks I can wait on, and basicly count on stealing, instead of reaching to make sure I get them...and that is what you can do in this format, drafting from the middle.Wednesday, Apr 2, 3 PMJust turned the corner into round 9. A few more steals have gone by, but I didn't use one on my last, instead taking Cedric Benson. Might be a waste, but I can't see Chicago going RB early with all of their other needs and the $$$$ they have invested in Benson. As RB37, in the 8th round, I may have an NFL starter who has limited competition for carries. I know he's coming off injury, but I've seen nothing to tell me he won't be ready.Jeff is out of steals, but has had another stolen from him....talk about whining! (It's all in fun, and very funny) He had Jon Kitna stolen. Funny, I had warned him I would be stealing Kitna if given the chance. Most of the steals lately have been on QB2's. 23 QB's are off the board, only a couple unlocked (but none open to me without help). I don't have a TE yet either, but I still have my sleeper pick there (LJ Smith). Only problem is pairing my TE1 with my QB1.5:45pm:A lot of progress in the last few hours. I got on line just as I was being PM'd that I was already up. I was a little surprised when I looked and saw 3 or 4 more TE's gone Most people are already getting their second TE, and I hadn't gotten my first. I'd rather take a deep chance on my backup QB then my starting TE, and it's about the right time to pick L.J. Smith, so I took him. Unlike many of my picks though, I really do care if this one gets stolen, as he's the ONLY TE in this area I like,and he's an absolute steal at TE19. I'll probably wait on my backup QB now as we're down to mostly scrubs and it might not matter which scrub I get.11:30 PM Five more picks gone...three of them QB's, plus a repick QB to make 4...now at QB28. The first half of the round featured 4 TE's and only 1 QB. Figures, I took the last TE pick. Hate being at the end of the run! It seemed very early for scrub B/U QB's to be falling though....VERY early....so I went back and double checked the WSL's. QB28 was falling in the 9-10 round in those. Guess it's just me.Thursday Apr 3, 5 PM:Had to run out and pick up my stepdaughter this AM, but checked in before I did. Was on deck for both Elephant AND PDSL, but had no clue when I might be able to get back on line, so I very hastily sent Jeff a message:
gotta run out for a couple of hours,and I'm on deck in both leagues.Wanted to steal my backup QB in WE...but they keep getting locked up before I can pick. Choices SUCK now and I probably should wait, but I might get screwed even worse if I do, so nab me Jamarcus Russel, unless Ruds takes him (no way I use a steal on him) If he des, just grab me an appropriate WR.IN PDSL, I really think McNabb is being badly under-rated this year. I know I have Westy, but I can't pass up what I think is the best seal in the survivors this year, so grab him. If he's taken before me at the turn again just grab an appropriate WR.GOTTA RUN...THANKS!
Russell's gone, guy.
My wording could have been better, now that I'm looking at it again...it says "nab" but also says "no way I'd use a steal..." Sorry for the confusion!Sucks though...somehow got caught on the wrong end of two different runs. TE's were flying off the board left and right, but STOPPED when I grabbed LJ Smith....then a B/U Qb run started, and I got screwed with nobody I could realy steal. I looked quickly because I only had a couple of minutes, and honestly didn't see Russell was picked. I did send a backup plan though, even if a little bit vague "grab an appropriate WR) LOLanyway...thanks for covering for me!
No prob.I did think about burning one of your steals for ya :wolf: .I also did try and warn you that you can't steal everybody. 4 steals this late isn't helping you much.
Even early, the BEST steals come after you've been robbed, as you get a lot more flexibility in who you can nab and when, with the chance to lock the steal if you can wait till your next pick. Not sure what it says about my draft (I like my team!), but I haven't been robbed since the first round. I'm surprised by that, because I've had several picks I really didn't expect to keep. Not sure what to do at B/U QB now...probably have to burn two picks on Mia OR Atl Qb's.
Jeff ended up not doing anything in WE for me, since I had plenty of clock time left. He posted saying that my message looked like an illegal steal, but that it wasn't clear. I only just now got on line, but only 4 hours or so passed, so not too bad. I stole Drew Bennett. QB choices (by team) are down to Mia, Atl, Balt, and Chicago...NONE have a sure fire starter. Looks like I'll have to burn two picks to get my backup. Since I really don't care which team (all these situations suck), I figured I might as well strengthen another area. Bennett SHOULD be the #2 WR in St. Louis, and is well worth taking at this stage.Fri, Apr 4, 5 pm:Bennett was stolen from me last night, only a couple picks after I stole him. He was stolen AGAIN a couple later and locked. Funny to see a marginal WR stolen that many times, but he's safer then most of what's out there right now. I was glad to get robbed as I went to bed, since there is so much more flexibility after getting robbed, but when I looke dearlier today I really didn't see anyone I'd want to take. When my turn came up again, I still didn't see anybody I wanted. Thought about stealing McMichael as my TE2, but I wouldn't be shocked if he were fighting for his job this year. Alex Smith (Te/TB) was still on the board. His upside is pretty limited with Gruden, but he's pretty safe,and safe is good with LJ Smith as my TE1. Looking around at the QB's, I really hated what's left, but kept coming back to Grossman in Chicago. What are the odds he keeps his job at least until McNabb has had his bye week? He has very little competition on that roster, so is worth the risk given the alternatives. There's a few other guys looking for their QB2, but I'm sure they planned to wait a while. After all, who really wants to take Grossman or Redmon in the 11th? The Baltimore QB seems a 3 man race, Miami a 2 man race, and Atlanta will also be a 2 man race before the season starts. I figured Grossman was less likely to get stolen then Smith...but I'll lose very little sleep if I'm wrong! Apr 7th, 9pm:The weekend was, predictably, slow. Normally we pick up a lot on Mondays, but the pickup was marginal yesterday. I took a DST in the 12th (Pittsburgh) only to have it stolen a few picks later. I waited a while before stealing Green Bay to replace it. In the 13th, I decided to take one of the top kickers and went with Vinatieri There's at least an outside chance somebody will burn a steal on him.Speaking of steals, nobody has more then 2 left, and 4 people have none left.Grossman and Alex Smith did go through clean, so I have 2 QB's and 2 TE's. I'm OK with GB as my DST1, but will probably be weak for DST2.NOTE ADDED LATER: Something was wrong with my dates in this area...they didn't match the FBG threads! Many were off by a day, so I changed them to match.Wed Apr 8th, midnight:Draft still moving pretty slow...not sure why. Vinatieri was stolen as expected, but only a couple of spots before my next pick (was a makeup pick for shadow). Guess my lucky string of NOT getting robbed has ended. Funny watching a guy like Earnest Wilford get stolen twice, but that's what makes this draft so interesting...the guy you think is a value in mid to late rounds, is often a value to somebody else, even at the price of a steal. Stole RB Chris Johnson (Rook) for my makeup pick, and sealed him with Mason Crosby. Not too sure about rookie RB's, but not too sure about the backups out there anyway.April 10th, 2 PM:Still very slow for some reason...nobody is PMing anybody for picks I guess. Took Stover as my second kicker a little bit ago. Would have preferred to wait a bit, but it's about time for the inevitable kicker run, and I don't want to get caught by it. Elephant is a little fdifferent then the other drafts in this regard. Wait to take one of the last PK's or DSs, and you can easily get robbed and end up with only 1. It's worse with the kickers, cause there aren't 32 definate starters to begin with. Hopefully Stover goes clean so I won't have to worry about it, or burn a steal on a lousy kicker.April 10th, 7pm:Blu Kun just stole David Akers from Jeter! Using a steal to take PK8, when we're only at PK10 or so? A bit strange there...Jeff even posted rofl smiley.April 10th, 11pm:Finally had one of those complete blunders that elephant is becoming famous for. After some side notes, and some elapsed time, Old Swill made a confusing post that had a couple of ":toke:" notes in it, and took a kicker. Then, he PM'd Blu Kun that he was up. Problem is that BK was the guy BEFORE him, not after him this round. BK made a pick before I signed on and saw a problem. BK had neglected to PM OM, who then picked while "puff, puffing", and subsequantly pmed BK back, who then didn't really check the thread very carefully before picking again. Duckboy had two picks skipped, and OM had also managed to skip himself. White elephant may be famous for this type of confusion, but this particular scenario could have playerd out in any draft!April 11th, 1pm:Took Atlanta as my second DST. Doubt it gets robbed, but at DST29, it's a bit risky.April 12th, 1pm:Radballs took a third DST to lead off the 17th round. If soebody doesn't steal it, then somebody will be short a DST. April 13th, 1pm:Some more excitement overnight, again with something that could happen in any drfat though. Fro took Randel El. Problem was that Jeff took Randle-El 2 or 3 rounds earlier. A couple guys jumped it saying there needed to be a penalty for a bad steal. Luckily, I had clarified the rules before we started that all steal attempts had to clearly state steal, or they would be considered simple bad picks. The only "penaly" to impose is that he had to make the pick up from the player pool at any time. Fro complained that I mispelled the name (so his control-F didn't work), but Jeff pointed out that it was spelled Randle by NFL.com. I have no idea which one is correct to be truthful!!!!Meanwhile...Jeter just had ANOTHER KICKER stolen...that's three times now in 2 rounds. I don't get it though. I can see burning a steal to get one of the last safe kickers, but there were still several safe ones available. Debating heavily on where to go with my upcoming pick. Want to go RB again soon, but don't much like the options. Thinking hard about using my last steal to nab Brandon Jackson. Jeff may be sold on Ryan Grant, but I'm not. Jackson didn't light the world on fire last year, but he will almost certainly get another shot to compete for the job this year No other backups look appealing at this point, and we're already 5 or 6 deep on the rookies...I'd have to know where they land to even THINK about any of the rookies that are left....so I guess I've just talked myself into the steal!April 13th, 2:30pm: I did the steal, and soon after road Warriors took Chris Henry. I like Jackson better, but barely. Might have been wiser to go with Henry. Of course, either can (and very well might) get stolen.April 13th, midnight: Good progress today. Hopefully that keeps up. We made the turn, so my Jackson steal appears pretty safe now.April 14th, 1pm:Needed/?wanted? to take a couple more recievers. There are no sure fire vets left, but only a couple of rookies have been taken. this seemd a good spot to take a chance and grab a rookie. I took Doucet. He's a little lower on most guys draft boards, but he's more NFL ready then many of the other rookies, and this is not a dynasty draft. Fiddles took Nate Washington only a minute or two after me. Kind of sucks...that was another guy I had considered, but instead hoped he'd come back to me. We had another bad pick recently. Guys point them out pretty quickly though.April14th, 4pm: LOL...yet ANOTHER bad pick. Starting to see some of the higher profile backups get taken (Brady Quinn just got picked.) We are in the 18th.April 15th, 6pm:The 18th was one of the quieter rounds of the draft. A couple bad picks, but no steals. There's only a few steals left though, as only Rudy had 2 left after 18, and most had none.The schedule came out today, and a couple of guys got screwed by it (of course!) Jeff lost both his QB's. Fro used his last steal on Jacoby Jones (another I had my eye on), only to watch Rudy steal him away again. Don't think Fro is too happy about it! (Some fingers being thrown)April 15th, midnight: After a ton of careful thought, I decided to take Josh Reed at 19.10. Guy has been finishing in the WR70s for four or five years now. Very little upside, but consistant enough to score a few times and prevent zeros. Definately better then WR98! I'm nervous about it though, as I posted a foolish message with my pick: "His upside may be low, but his floor is at least 25 slots better then WR100ish...." That's got to just scream STEAL ME! I've got another plan though, if I need it. Just minutes later, Ruds stole Jacoby Jones with his last steal...the third time Jones was stolen!April 16th,11:30am:Yep, blu-kun agreed with my assessment, and stole him overnight. Used my repick on Eric Parker. He was hurt last year, and is a currently 4th on the depth chart for SanDiego, but had a very good year in 06. I preferred something safer (Reed), but Parker has more upside, and has shown he can do it when healthy. Also strongly considered a KC WR. The only one taken at this point is Bowe. SOMEBODY has to be the #2 there, but who? They will certainly use an early pick on a WR, but rookies usually struggle. The job would go to Devard Darling or Jeff Webb. Neither has ever had a great year, and it's a crap shoot who wins that battle. Sent Jeff a PM on it, asking his thoughts (mostly for curiousity sake as I'm leaning towards TE for the last round). Also considered Avant, but figured that was too much a homer pick. Love his upside, but he'll only realize it if Curtis or Brown gets hurt for a long stretch. I can't wish that on my eagles! So, maybe the homer pick is NOT taking him????? Gotta think about that one.April 16th, 6pm:Old Milwaukee timed out. He's had a rough draft...lol. Pictus cat then STOLE Kyle Boller. Stole boller???? Well, he did get nailed by the byes, with both his starters out week 10. With no other sure starters left to take, he picked Redman in the 19th, and stole Boller in the 20th. Of course, Duckboy only took Boller because his QB's alo shared a bye. I'm ecstatic that I had no bye week problems in this league. I think there may be a few more QB flyers coming...April 16th, 7pm: Though ong and hard about which direction to take this pick in. I'm not confidant in any of the remaining QB's, but did consider taking Kyle Orton for insurance against Grossman....then thought better of it. Chicago may well take a rookie QB, and Orton be relegated to third strong quickly. Thought about another TE, but even if there are TE's capable of being TE25-30, TE 30 is usually still next to worthless at 3 pts a week. Already have five RB's, and love who I have. Seems you can never have too many WRs in these leagues, so went back to them. Jeff and I went back and forth via PMs today about who WR2 in KC will be. He said it would be Darling based on the contract, but I pointed out to him that was suspect because Webb is still on his rookie deal, and Darling just signed as a FA, and not a particularly expensive one for a FA WR. (3yrs, 5mil I think) Neither has ever had a "breakout" year, but I did find a couple nice writeups about Darlings performance for the Ravens late last year when their starters were hurt. Not much of a resume, but it was something to go with KC listing him at #2...so I took him with the following statement: "SOMEBODY has to be the Wr2 in KC. I don't have a ton of confidence in this guy, but he's #2 for now...." Old Milwaukee quoted my post, agreed, and took Webb only 10 minutes later.April 17th, 11:30am:Only a couple of picks left. As predicted, there was a small run of scrub QB's. I'l have to look at the rosters a litle closer to figure out why, because a few of those guys were mild surprises to me (Like Fitzpatrick). I feel kind of ill today, but if I can I'm hoping to finish cleaning the roster thread, and do some quick analyses before posting this "blog" later today. One note though...only Fiddles failed to use all five steals alloted, but he was also robbed less then most (I think..will verify that later.)
 
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NOTES AND STATISTICS:

The first five rounds are critical in virtually any draft, so I checked totals for everybodies first five picks, and had a quick look at the makeup of each team.

Through five rounds:

Jeter and Rudnicki had been robbed four times already, Shadow and Old Milwaukee had not been robbed at all. Renesauz and Radballs only once, and everybody else either two or three times.

Only Blue-Kun did not successfully execute at least one steal in the first five rounds. Radballs, Old Milwaukee, and Duckboy has all stolen three (Slots 1, 15, and 16...no coincidance). Everybody else had used either one or two. Although there were several wasted steals in the first five rounds, only Jeff had wasted two steals.

The cleanest starts were with renesauz and shadow, each of whom had four fresh picks survive in the first five rounds. Rudnicki had zero.

At this early point in the draft, Old Milwaukee and renesauz seem to have the stronger teams, but arrived at that point in different ways. Milwaukee used three steals to good effect while not being robbed at all. renesauz managed to get robbed less then most. Shadow also had 4 picks go through clean, but had a couple of reaches (purposefully avoiding getting robbed?) that explain why he went clean. His team appears among the weaker at this point. Radballs also went fairly clean, and used three steals. He was in the #1 position though, and took Tom Brady at the 1.1 pick. That strategy allowed Radballs to pass through the first round clean, but resulted in only an average start.

After twenty rounds: (robbed/stole/fresh picks/Repicks/wasted steals)

Radballs: 3/5/15/0/0

Jeter: 10/4/10/8/1

Reaper: 5/3/14/3/2

Jeff Pasquino: 6/2/15/3/3

Shadow: 3/4/14/2/1

Road Warriors: 5/3/13/4/2(1 illegal)

Fullback Fro: 5/3/14/3/2

Rudy: 5/3/14/3/2

Fiddles: 4/3/16/1/2 (1 unused)

Renesauz: 5/4/14/2/1

Aaron Rudnicki: 7/4/11/5/1

Ruffrodys05: 5/4/14/2/1

Pictus Cat: 5/5/11/5/0

Blue-Kun: 3/4/13/3/1

Old Milwaukee: 2/4/15/1/1

Duckboy: 5/4/14/2/1

There were 21 wasted steals in the draft, including one unsued steal and one illegal steal attempt. Kudos to Radballs and Pictus Cat as being the only guys not to waste at least one steal. Most of us wasted 1 or 2, Jeff wasted 3.

There were 80 possible steals in the draft, but only 78 executed after accounting for the unused and the illegal. That means 59 robberies were SUCCESFULLY completed, about 76% of the valid attempts. That number surprised me as I expected it to be a little lower.

By definition, fresh pick means a player taken fresh from the player pool, and not stolen. Fiddles had the most, at 16. Jeter had the least, at 10. 14 seems the norm.

Most folks were robbed about 5 times, but Jeter was robbed an astonishing TEN TIMES. Although Jeff seemed the most vocal during the draft, his six times robbed was barely over average, and lower then both Jeter and Rudnicki (7). Old MiIlwaukee was only robbed twice, while Radballs, Shadow, and Blue-Kun were robbed three times.

I dug a litle deeper on how/when folks attempted to use their steals. It turns out that when somebody got robbed, and still had an available steal to use themselves, they were far more likely to execute a steal. In those situations, a steal was used 32 out of 61 possible times, about 52% of the time. I also checked how folks reacted after having their steal stolen. In those situations (where another steal was available), they executed a second steal on 8 out of 15 possible occassions (%53).

 
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LISTED FROM BEST TO WORST:

1. Fullback Fro (From slot 7):

QB: 3.07 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit, QB6 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 6), 8.10 JaMarcus Russell, Oak, QB23 (REPICK) (BYE = 5)

RB: 1.07 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac, RB13 (VIA TWO STEALS) (BYE = 7), 7.07 Julius Jones, Sea, RB34 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 10.10 Shaun Alexander, Sea, RB46 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 15.07 Mewelde Moore, Pit, RB59 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 20.10 J.J. Arrington, Ari, RB76 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7)

WR: 4.10 Marvin Harrison, Ind, WR22 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 5.07 Chris Chambers, SD, WR29 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 6.10 Anthony Gonzalez, Ind, WR37 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 9.07 Donte Stallworth, Cle, WR52 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 5), 17.07 Brad Smith, NYJ, WR83 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 18.10 James Hardy, ROOK, WR91 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 19.07 Matt Jones, Jac, WR96 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 7)

TE: 2.10 Kellen Winslow, Cle, TE1 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 11.07 Dustin Keller, ROOK, TE22 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?)

PK: 14.10 Neil Rackers, Ari, PK6 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 16.10 John Kasay, Car, PK19 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

DST: 12.10 San Francisco 49ers, DST20 (REPICK) (BYE = 9), 13.07 Cleveland Browns, DST21 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

Fro was among the first to take both a TE and a QB, and is above average in both regards for a starter. I'm not in love with his backups at those postions though (a rookie TE?????), so the starters better stay healthy. Fro concentrated on WR's after those first few picks, and went deep, acquiring 7 in the end. While none are a strong WR1, he has a nice top four grouping, and the depth should pay nice dividends. Nobody can be strong in every area, and Fro's weak spot is obviously at RB. MJD is a popular first round pick this year, but there is some obvious risk inherent with him. Catching the combo of Jones and Alexander should cover RB2. I'd like them better if he'd managed a little more upside in the other backups. Despite the weakness, I think this is the team to beat as long as Rothlisberger and Winslow stay healthy. (It doesn't hurt that Fro has no bye weak problems to deal with!)

2. OldMilwaukee (From slot #15):

QB: 8.02 Aaron Rogers, GB, QB19 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 10.02 Kurt Warner, Ari, QB29 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 16.02 John Beck, Mia, QB31 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 18.02 Matt Ryan, ROOK, QB33 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?)

RB: 1.15 Joseph Addai, Ind, RB4 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4), 4.02 DeAngelo Williams, Car, RB19 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 9.15 Michael Bush, Oak, RB41 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 5), 13.15 Kevin Jones, ???, RB54 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 17.15 Derrick Ward, NYG, RB66 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

WR: 2.02 Braylon Edwards, Cle, WR2 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 3.15 Reggie Wayne, Ind, WR3 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4), 5.15 Javon Walker, Oak, WR27 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 5), 7.15 Bryant Johnson, SF, WR47 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 19.15 Troy Williamson, Jac, WR99 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 20.02 Jeff Webb, KC, WR104 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

TE: 6.02 Vernon Davis, SF, TE8 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 14.02 David Martin, Mia, TE28 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

PK: 15.15 Rian Lindell, Buf, PK15 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

DST: 11.15 Jacksonville Jaguars, DST6 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 12.02 Buffalo Bills, DST8 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

Old Swill was one of the last ones to take a QB, but Rogers should be fairly safe at QB19, with a ton of potential upside. Milwaukee added three more QB's, betting that at least one of them becomes a starter for their team. Pretty good bet, IMO, although I don't think Ryan was necessary. That gamble allowed him to go elsewhere early on, and WR was the choice. OM has what looks like the best first four in the league. At RB, Addai is an above average RB1, and DWill SHOULD be solid at RB2. If he isn't, there is still a ton of upside in Bush/Jones/Ward. Davis should be ok at TE1. He only took 1 PK, but if there's any position to roll with 1, that's it. In the end, this is a team that should perform well above average, and there are too many chances inherently taken to rate it as the best, but if DWill and Rogers both play well, this will be a very tough team to beat. Bye weeks shouldn't be a problem for OM either.

3. renesauz (from slot 10):

QB: 5.10 Donovan McNabb, Phi, QB9 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 11.10 Rex Grossman, Chi, QB30 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

RB: 1.10 Frank Gore, SF, RB10 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9), 2.07 Willie Parker, Pit, RB14 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 8.07 Cedric Benson, Chi, RB37 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 13.10 Chris Johnson, ROOK, RB56 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = ?), 17.10 Brandon Jackson, GB, RB64 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8)

WR: 3.10 Brandon Marshall, Den, WR15 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 4.07 Jericho Cotchery, NYJ, WR19 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 6.07 Derrick Mason, Bal, WR36 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 7.10 Jerry Porter, Jac, WR43 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 18.07 Early Doucet, ROOK, WR88 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 19.10 Eric Parker, SD, WR101 (REPICK) (BYE = 9), 20.07 Devard Darling, KC, WR103 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

TE: 9.10 L.J. Smith, Phi, TE19 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 10.07 Alex Smith, TB, TE22 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 10)

PK: 14.07 Mason Crosby, GB, PK5 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 15.10 Matt Stover, Bal, PK12 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10)

DST: 12.07 Green Bay Packers, DST15 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 16.07 Atlanta Falcons, DST29 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7)

I'm trying very hard to be completely impartial in these rankings. This is one of the very few teams that I couldn't even come close to "blinding myself" on. My blog should give a ton of insight as to why I picked what I did when I did. I've ranked this team here based on the relative lack of big risks, and the upside inherent in picks like Benson. I would have liked a better WR1, but there are only a few teams with a better overall first four WRs. With one of the better RB corps, this team should be one of the top contenders (assuming I am right about McNabb). No bye week issues to trip me up early either!

4. Jeff Pasquino (from slot 4):

QB: 3.04 Tony Romo, Dal, QB3 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 8.13 Jeff Garcia, TB, QB22 (REPICK) (BYE = 10), 20.13 Drew Stanton, DET, QB42 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

RB: 1.04 Ryan Grant, GB, RB15 (VIA TWO STEALS) (BYE = 8), 7.04 Travis Henry, Den, RB33 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 10.13 Ahman Green, Hou, RB49 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 16.13 Ricky Williams, Mia, RB63 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 18.13 Matt Forte, ROOK, RB68 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?)

WR: 2.13 Steve Smith, Car, WR7 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 4.13 Donald Driver, GB, WR28 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 8), 6.13 Bobby Engram, Sea, WR39 (VIA TWO STEALS) (BYE = 4), 9.04 Arnaz Battle, SF, WR53 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 14.13 Antwaan Randle-El, Was, WR75 (REPICK) (BYE = 10), 19.04 Terry Glenn, DAL, WR93 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10)

TE: 5.04 Todd Heap, Bal, TE6 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 12.13 Jeff King, Car, TE25 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

PK: 15.04 Jason Hanson, Det, PK9 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 17.04 Joe Nedney, SF, PK25 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

DST: 11.04 San Diego Chargers, DST1 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 13.04 Denver Broncos, DST18 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

This isn't the easiest team to rank, because while bye weeks hurt other teams, they devastated Jeff. They definately affected the way he drafted the last few rounds, and some concessions were in order to rank the final team fairly. Jeff overcame the wasted steals to obtain one of the better QB combos, and a solid start to his WR's. I'm assuming he would have almost certainly taken one or two more in the last couple of rounds if not for the bye week disaster. I'm not in love with Ryan Grant, but I know a lot of others are, making him a solid RB1. Although I don't like Henry or Green as a RB2, it's a pretty good bet that one of them will perform to that level, and Jeff hedged his bets with Williams. I suspect Forte was only taken because of the byes. While I tend to overlook DSTs, Jeff has a great combo with SD/Denver. In the end, this is a team that should have been a contender, but is sure to get destroyed in week 8, or at best by week 10, because of the byes.

5. Aaron Rudnicki (from slot 11):

QB: 5.11 Marc Bulger, SL, QB11 (VIA TWO STEALS) (BYE = 5), 9.11 Trent Edwards, Buf, QB27 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 6)

RB: 1.11 Willis McGahee, Bal, RB12 (REPICK) (BYE = 10), 2.06 Ronnie Brown, Mia, RB16 (REPICK) (BYE = 4), 8.06 Kenny Watson, Cin, RB38 (REPICK) (BYE = 8), 11.11 Sammy Morris, NE, RB50 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 15.11 Fred Jackson, BUF, RB60 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

WR: 3.11 T. J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin, WR9 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 4.06 Kevin Curtis, Phi, WR26 (REPICK) (BYE = 7), 7.11 Vincent Jackson, SD, WR44 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 10.06 Deion Branch, Sea, WR56 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 16.06 Michael Jenkins, Atl, WR81 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 19.11 Jacoby Jones, HOU, WR92 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 20.06 Craig Davis, SD, WR106 (REPICK) (BYE = 9)

TE: 6.06 Owen Daniels, Hou, TE9 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 18.06 Kevin Boss, NYG, TE30 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

PK: 13.11 Nick Folk, Dal, PK3 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 17.11 Matt Bryant, TB, PK27 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10)

DST: 12.06 New York Giants, DST11 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 14.06 Carolina Panthers, DST25 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

This is another team I struggled with a little bit, but for different reasons. On my first pass, I had it ranked on the average to below average side. But then I started to look a little bit closer. Bulger should be a solid, if unspectacular starter. Edwards should keep his job, and was probably the last "safe" QB taken. By waiting, Ruds was able to achieve what looks like the most balanced team in the league. While it's hard to point out a true strength in it (other then eight WR's), there is no glaring weakness either. Most of our teams have one or two players we need to perform well in order to challenge for the title. Ruds has no such player. There is no single player it would kill him to lose, and for that reason this has to be considered among the better teams. It's hard to imagine this team winning it all, but it's even harder to imagine it fading away before the later parts of the season.

6. Duckboy (from slot 16):

QB: 6.01 Matt Schaub, Hou, QB17 (REPICK) (BYE = 8), 9.16 Tarvaris Jackson, Min, QB25 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 20.01 Josh McCown, MIA, QB39 (REPICK) (BYE = 4)

RB: 1.16 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD, RB7 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9), 4.01 Earnest Graham, TB, RB24 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10), 11.16 Chris Brown, Hou, RB51 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 17.16 Adrian Peterson, Chi, RB67 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

WR: 2.01 Torry Holt, SL, WR14 (VIA TWO STEALS) (BYE = 5), 3.16 Roy Williams, Det, WR17 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 5.16 Santana Moss, Was, WR33 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 8.01 Reggie Williams, Jac, WR48 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 16.01 Mark Bradley, Chi, WR79 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 18.01 Michael Clayton, TB, WR85 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 19.16 Joe Jurevicius, CLE, WR100 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

TE: 7.16 Heath Miller, Pit, TE12 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 10.01 Desmond Clark, Chi, TE20 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

PK: 14.01 Shayne Graham, Cin, PK4 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 15.16 Jeff Reed, Pit, PK16 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

DST: 12.01 Seattle Seahawks, DST7 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 13.16 Tennessee Titans, DST24 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

Duckboy did try to get a better QB1, but had Rothlisberger stolen from him, then Bulger. One of the disadvantages of the end in WE is that even when you anticipate a run, and pick ahead of it, you still can't always beat the run. Still, Schaub is hardly a disaster, and both he and Tavaris Jackson have obvious upside. Duckboy got bit at QB on the byes, and took McCown at the end in hopes of scoring at QB in week 8. Based on how many people got bit week 8, he may have been better served spending that pick elsewhere, like RB. Having LT is a huge bonus, but is this the year he fades? Probably not much, if at all, or DB would be ranked much lower here. Even with LT, it's hard to rate DBs RB corps as much better then average. Graham has a little upside, but it's hard to see better then RB20 production there at best, and easy to see him fall to worthless depending on what TB does this summer. Chris Brown was a nice gamble where DB took him, but he's still a gamble. Adrian Peterson was a nice late pick to prevent zeros, but has little upside. WR is the strength of this team, as long as Holt continues to produce. Bradley and Jurevicious late will help prevent zeros, but they aren't likely to ever post a great score. If we assume round 20 would have been a RB, then Duckboy's squad ranks on the high side of average (in my eyes). I could see this team going out anywhere from week one to week 111/12, but not much further then that.

7. Reaper (from slot 3):

QB: 6.14 Jay Cutler, Den, QB12 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 7.03 Jon Kitna, Det, QB21 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4)

RB: 1.03 Brian Westbrook, Phi, RB3 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 7), 3.03 Darren McFadden, ROOK, RB23 (REPICK) (BYE = ?), 5.03 Thomas Jones, NYJ, RB25 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 13.03 Lorenzo Booker, Mia, RB53 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 18.14 Ladell Betts, Was, RB69 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 19.03 Darren Sproles, SD, RB73 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

WR: 2.14 Andre Johnson, Hou, WR10 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 8), 4.14 Lee Evans, Buf, WR24 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 10.14 Jabbar Gaffney, NE, WR60 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 4), 11.03 Laurent Robinson, Atl, WR61 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 12.14 David Patten, NO, WR66 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 15.03 Keary Colbert, Den, WR74 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 20.14 Demetrius Williams, Bal, WR102 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10)

TE: 8.14 Greg Olsen, Chi, TE14 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 9.03 Ben Watson, NE, TE15 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

PK: 16.14 Lawrence Tynes, NYG, PK21 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 17.03 Shaun Suisham, Was, PK24 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10)

DST: 14.14 New York Jets, DST27 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

Reaper doesn't have a top QB, but he has two QB's who will post some great games, so his combo has to be considered above average. The TE's are very similar, being borderline TE1/2 types, but with two like that, the combo should be strong. Reaper has arguably the best overall RB corps in WE this year, with PPR stud Westbrook leading the charge. If McFadden becomes a feature back, and if Thomas Jones stays the starter in NY, then Reaper has three starters. I love the late pick of Betts. It's hard to argue with Andre Johnson as WR1, and Lee Evans at WR2 is also solid, but Reaper spent so many early picks on RB and QB, Gaffney and Laurent Robinson have to serve as WR3. Going with only one DST normally wouldn't hurt much, but if you're going to go with one, you'd think he'd look for something better then the Jets. I can see plenty of potential with this team, but it seems to need too many good things to happen to consider it any better then average, despite the RB's.

8. Road Warriors (from slot 6):

QB: 3.06 Drew Brees, NO, QB5 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9), 8.11 Kellen Clemons, NYJ, QB24 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 5), 20.11 Chad Pennington, NYJ, QB40 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

RB: 1.06 Clinton Portis, Was, RB9 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10), 5.06 Brandon Jacobs, NYG, RB27 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 10.11 Kevin Smith, ROOK, RB47 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 17.06 Chris Henry, Ten, RB65 (REPICK) (BYE = 6)

WR: 2.11 Marquis Colsten, NO, WR12 (REPICK) (BYE = 9), 4.11 Roddy White, Atl, WR23 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 7.06 Isaac Bruce, SF, WR42 (REPICK after illegal steal attempt) (BYE = 9), 14.11 Marty Booker, Chi, WR72 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 9.06 Shaun McDonald, Det, WR54 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 15.06 James Jones, GB, WR77 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 19.06 Derek Hagan, Mia, WR94 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

TE: 6.11 Jeremy Shockey, NYG, TE11 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 12.11 Mercedes Lewis, Jac, TE24 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7)

PK: 16.11 Rob Bironas, Ten, PK14 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 6), 18.11 Jay Feely, MIA, PK30 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

DST: 11.06 New England Patriots, DST2 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 13.06 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DST19 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10)

I really like Brees this year, and he Clemons/Pennington combo seems an adequate backup. Portis tends to be overlooked in these leagues, but he's not exactly a steal for the 1.06 pick. Will Brandon Jacobs be the feature back in NY? If not, Warrior's RB corps will likely be the league's worst. I liked the early WR picks, especially the under-rated Roddy White (although WR23 seems about right, it's not a steal). Bruce is a good gamble, as is McDonald at WR54. I don't see much potential upside in the later round WR's though, and that's not a good thing. The DST's are a great combo, but that counts for little in these leagues. In the end, this is an average squad likely to fail mid season.

9. Fiddles (from slot 9):

QB: 3.09 Matt Hasslebeck, Sea, QB6 (REPICK) (BYE = 4), 7.09 Jake Delhomme, Car, QB16 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

RB: 1.09 Marion Barber, Dal, RB5 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 6.08 Fred Taylor, Jac, RB30 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 12.08 Jamal Charles, ROOK, RB52 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 16.08 Kolby Smith, KC, RB62 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 20.08 Lamont Jordan, Oak, RB75 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

WR: 2.08 Terrell Owens, Dal, WR4 (VIA TWO STEALS) (BYE = 10), 4.08 Hines Ward, Pit, WR20 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 5.09 Bernard Berrian, Min, WR30 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 11.09 Bobby Wade, Min, WR63 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 14.08 Muhsin Muhammad, Car, WR70 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 18.08 Nate Washington, PIT, WR89 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 19.09 Ashley Lelie, SF, WR97 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

TE: 8.08 Alge Crumpler, Ten, TE13 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 9.09 Donald Lee, GB, TE18 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

PK: 15.09 Phil Dawson, Cle, PK11 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 17.09 Jason Elam, Atl, PK23 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 7)

DST: 10.08 Chicago Bears, DST3 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 13.09 Washington Redskins, DST22 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10)

I'm not a big fan of Delhomme, but it's hard to argue against him as a QB2, while Hasslebeck is certainly one of the safer and more solid QB1s (even if he lacks the explosive upside of a Brady or Manning.) Many folks are touting Barber as a stud, but until Dallas gives him 20 carries/game, I'm unconvinced that he's worth a top ten pick. Still, that's my opinion, not consensus, and I can't argue him here. Fred Taylor at RB2 is another pick that comes with some risk, as he is long in the tooth now, with the talented MJD pushing him. I don't dislike either of these picks, but I don't really like them together. With a lower ranked rookie and Kolby Smith backing them up, I like it even less. The WR's are a different story, especially at the top. Owens, Ward, Berrian could be argued as the best top three in WE, and with the upside of Muhammad and Washington behind them, this is definately a solid group. TE's are marginal here as individuals, but Crumpler and Lee TOGETHER should be above average. Although I've rated this team as average, if Barber is as studly as RB5 should be, this team has a good chance to go deep. Fiddles also escaped bye week problems.

10. Radballs (from slot 1):

QB: 1.01 Tom Brady, NE, QB1 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 7.01 Matt Leinart, Ari, QB18 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 7)

RB: 2.16 Larry Johnson, KC, RB11 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 6), 5.01 Rashard Mendenhall, ROOK, RB28 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = ?), 6.16 Justin Fargas, Oak, RB32 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 18.16 DeShaun Foster, SF, RB71 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 19.01 Dominic Rhodes, OAK, RB72 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

WR: 3.01 Chad Johnson, Cin, WR8 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 8.16 Mark Clayton, Bal, WR51 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 9.01 Drew Bennett, SL, WR55 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 5), 10.16 Amani Toomer, NYG, WR57 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 11.01 Darrell Jackson, Den, WR58 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 20.16 Andre Davis, HOU, WR108 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

TE: 4.16 Chris Cooley, Was, TE5 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10), 12.16 Chris Baker, NYJ, TE27 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

PK: 14.16 Nate Kaeding, SD, PK7 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 16.16 Ryan Longwell, Min, PK22 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

DST: 13.01 Oakland Raiders, DST16 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 15.01 Saint Louis Rams, DST28 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 17.01 Cincinnati Bengals, DST31 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

You gotta love Brady as QB1, but he'll need to produce like last year to justify the pick. Leinart as backup carries some risk...enough that I'd feel better if Warner were also here. Being at the end allowed Radballs to capture a legit RB1 in Larry Johnson. Rad took a chance on Ocho Cinco to lead the third, and was fortunate (I thought, at the time) nobody stole him. After taking Cooley in the fourth, Rad was one of two people not to take two WR's OR two RB's in the first four picks. (The other was Fro, who went Wr with his 4th, 5th, and 6th.) Rad stole Mendenhall in the fifth, and tried to mitigate that risk with Fargas in the 6th. Lots of risk there. Radballs WR corps won't turn heads, but all but one were taken by the 11th round, giving him depth, if no headliners other then Johnson. Of course, recent news makes Johnson very risky also. I'd like to think that Radballs would have taken a seventh WR if not for the byes. Instead, he went with a third DST, and I'm sure was very happy it didn't get stolen. At least he can count on a decent score at DST most weeks. There is so much risk involved with some of these picks that it's hard to fairly rate this team, which is why I have it listed solidly in the average range. I strongly suspect, however, that this team is more likely to fall very early, or very late.

11. Ruffrodys05 (from slot 12):

QB: 1.12 Peyton Manning, Ind, QB2 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4), 9.12 Brodie Croyle, KC, QB26 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

RB: 3.12 Edgerrin James, Ari, RB18 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 4.05 Rudi Johnson, Cin, RB21 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 8.05 Deuce McCallister, NO, RB35 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 16.05 Jason Wright, Cle, RB61 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 20.05 Mike Hart, ROOK, RB77 (REPICK) (BYE = ?)

WR: 2.05 Anquan Boldin, Ari, WR13 (VIA TWO STEALS) (BYE = 7), 6.05 Reggie Brown, Phi, WR35 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 7.12 Chris Henry, ??, WR45 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ??), 10.05 Roydell Williams, Ten, WR62 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 6), 11.12 Malcom Kelly, ROOK, WR64 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 13.12 Ernest Wilford, MIA, WR67 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4), 18.05 Chad Jackson, NE, WR87 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

TE: 5.12 Dallas Clark, Ind, TE7 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 19.12 Robert Royal, Buf, TE31 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

PK: 15.12 Josh Brown, STL, PK13 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 17.12 Martin Gramatica, NO, PK28 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

DST: 12.05 Philadelphia Eagles, DST10 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 14.05 Miami Dolphins, DST26 (REPICK) (BYE = 4)

Gotta love Peyton as QB1, especially since he came at the right price, but Croyle at QB2? Will he even have the job? Similar story at TE, but limited help when that TE is Peyton's TE. Rodys lacks a legit RB1, but does have two legit RB2s and maybe 3 with McCallister. The Chris Henry news crushed Ruffrodys already marginal WR corps, but I like the odds of Williams or Wilford compensating. In the end, this team screams average in almost every regard. Bye week 7 is likely to be the death blow, when Rodys will be missing WR1, WR2, RB1, and DST1. (Again, the bye weeks were not used as a real consideration in these ratings.)

12. Blue-Kun (from slot 14):

QB: 5.14 Derek Anderson, Cle, QB10 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 17.14 Shaun Hill, SF, QB32 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 20.03 Sage Rosenfels, HOU, QB38 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

RB: 1.14 Marshawn Lynch, Buf, RB8 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 6), 6.03 Chester Taylor, Min, RB29 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 9.14 Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG, RB39 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4), 10.03 Felix Jones, ROOK, RB42 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?)

WR: 2.03 Santonio Holmes, Pit, WR16 (REPICK) (BYE = 6), 4.03 D.J. Hackett, Car, WR32 (REPICK) (BYE = 9), 7.14 Ronald Curry, OAK, WR46 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 8.03 Kevin Walter, Hou, WR49 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 11.14 Brandon Stokely, Den, WR65 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 14.03 Justin Gage, Ten, WR69 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 18.03 Ike Hilliard, TB, WR86 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 19.14 Josh Reed, Buf, WR98 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 6)

TE: 3.14 Tony Gonzalez, KC, TE4 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

PK: 15.14 David Akers, Phi, PK8 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 7), 16.03 Kris Brown, Hou, PK17 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

DST: 12.03 Arizona Cardinals, DST9 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 13.14 Detroit Lions, DST23 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

A lot of guys are real high on Derek Anderson, with good reasons. A lot of guys doubt Derek Anderson,also with good reason. Can't fault BK for taking him, and believing in him. But when a player carries some controversy, it's generally a good idea to nab a solid backup. BK took Shaun Hill, a possible backup? I suspect he realized his risk late in the draft, but the best he could grab then was Rosenfels, a likely backup. He has a solid Rb1 in Lynch, but Taylor at RB2 screams for a quick RB3. BK waited until the ninth, and made Bradshaw his RB3, Felix Jones RB4 the next round. RB5 is....well, there isn't one. At WR, Santonio Holmes is an up and coming borderline WR1, Hackett is considered by many to be a talented WR2 type. But since Carolina also signed veteran wideout Muhsin Muhammad, is Hackett the WR# in Carolina? If so, is he a legit WR2 here? I don't know that answer, but I'd sure be looking for a solid #3. Enter, Ronald Curry. BK mitigated some of the WR risk by taking 8, but with 3 QB's and 8 WR's, even drafting one less RB then normal wasn't enough, so BK went with only one TE. This team simply has too much risk in too many places to consider it as even an average squad. There's enough talent to survive a few weeks, but too many weak spots to last past mid-season, at best.

13. jeter23 (from slot 2):

QB: 7.02 David Garrard, Jac, QB13 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 8.15 Jason Campbell, Was, QB20 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10)

RB: 1.02 Reggie Bush, NO, RB1 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 5.02 Jonathan Stewart, ROOK, RB31 (REPICK via repick) (BYE = ?), 9.02 Jerious Norwood, Atl, RB44 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 7), 14.15 Pierre Thomas, NO, RB58 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9), 18.15 TJ Duckett, SEA, RB70 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

WR: 3.02 Plaxico Burress, NYG, WR11 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4), 4.15 Dwayne Bowe, KC, WR25 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 6.15 Sydney Rice, Min, WR38 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 10.15 Steve Smith, NYG, WR59 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 16.15 Devin Thomas, ROOK, WR82 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 19.02 Jason Hill, SF, WR95 (REPICK) (BYE = 9), 20.15 Deshaun Jackson, ROOK, WR107 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?)

TE: 2.15 Antonio Gates, SD, TE2 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 9), 12.15 Ben Utecht, Cin, TE26 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

PK: 15.02 Josh Scobee, Jac, PK20 (REPICK via repick) (BYE = 7), 17.02 Sebastian Janikowski, Oak, PK26 (REPICK) (BYE = 5)

DST: 11.02 Dallas Cowboys, DST5 (REPICK) (BYE = 10), 13.02 Indianapolis Colts, DST17 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

If you've read the statistic post regarding this draft, then you're already aware of some of the extra challenges Jeter faced. Bush is certainly adequate as RB1 when PPR is in place, but Jeter had to use two repicks to land a rookie at RB2. I like the upside potential of his deeper backups, but they are still longshots to be weekly producers. At WR, Burress should be a solid WR1, if he can stay healthy. Bowe has a ton of potential, but still plays on a bad team. So does his WR3. At least Jeter is safe at QB with Garrard and Campbell, but that's the best that can be said...they're safe, but certainly won't carry a team to a title. In the end, Jeter got beat up in this draft, and nobody can fault him for producing a squad that really isn't up to his normal standards.

14. Pictus Cat (from slot 13):

QB: 7.13 Phillip Rivers, SD, QB14 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9), 9.13 Alex Smith, SF, QB28 (REPICK) (BYE = 9), 19.13 Chris Redman, Atl, QB36 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 20.04 Kyle Boller, BAL, QB37 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10)

RB: 1.13 Steven Jackson, SL, RB2 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 5), 2.04 Laurence Maroney, NE, RB17 (REPICK via repick) (BYE = 4), 8.04 Leon Washington, NYJ, RB40 (REPICK) (BYE = 5), 10.04 Kenton Keith, Ind, RB43 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 14.04 Kevin Faulk, NE, RB55 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

WR: 4.04 Greg Jennings, GB, WR18 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 5.13 Lavernous Coles, NYJ, WR31 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 6.04 Joey Galloway, TB, WR34 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 13.13 Devin Hester, Chi, WR68 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 15.13 Ben Obomanu, SEA, WR78 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 16.04 Robert Meachem, NO, WR80 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

TE: 3.13 Jason Witten, Dal, TE3 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10), 18.04 Leonard Pope, Ari, TE29 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7)

PK: 12.04 Stephen Gostkowski, NE, PK1 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

DST: 11.13 Minnesotta Vikings, DST4 (REPICK) (BYE = 8), 17.13 New Orleans Saints, DST32 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9)

What a strange team! Pictus was one of the last to take a QB1, which is fine, but then he was also one of the last to take QB2. When the byes bit him, PC took two more QB's late. In the end, PC may have FOUR STARTERS! Too bad none of them are likely to have many QB1 type weeks. QB1 by commitee? PC's starting Rb's are pretty solid with Jackson and Maroney leading the way, but his backups have limited upside should one of his starters go down long term. At WR, there is no legit WR1, but Jennings/Coles/Galloway should provide an adequate top three. They better, because there isn't much behind them. TE is probably PC's best position, but if Witten goes down, Pope won't provide much insurance. I may be judging this team too harshly, but I simply think the depth is in all the wrong places, and the team will fail early because of it.

15. Rudy (from slot 8):

QB: 5.08 Eli Manning, NYG, QB8 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 7.08 Vince Young, Ten, QB15 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

RB: 1.08 Adrian Peterson, Min, RB6 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 3.08 Michael Turner, Atl, RB22 (REPICK) (BYE = 7), 10.09 Ray Rice, ROOK, RB45 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 13.08 Warrick Dunn, TB, RB57 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 10), 19.08 Tashard Choice, RB, Rookie, RB74 (VIA TWO STEALS)

WR: 2.09 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari, WR5 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 7), 4.09 Calvin Johnson, Det, WR21 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 8.09 Tedd Ginn Jr., Mia, WR50 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 14.09 Brandon Jones, Ten, WR71 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 17.08 Limas Sweed, ROOK, WR84 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 18.09 Earl Bennett, ROOK, WR90 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?), 20.09 Jordy Nelson, ROOK, WR105 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = ?)

TE: 6.09 Tony Scheffler, Den, TE10 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 9.08 Zach Miller, Oak, TE17 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

PK: 15.08 Robbie Gould, Chi, PK10 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 16.09 Jeff Nugent, NYJ, PK18 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

DST: 11.08 Baltimore Ravens, DST13 (REPICK) (BYE = 10), 12.09 Houston Texans, DST14 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

First, the things I like about this squad. The Qb's are solid, if unspectacular. I'm not in love with Eli, but I admit a bias as an Eagles fan. With Young as backup, Rudy should be OK there. I like Peterson and Turner at RB1/2....as good a start as anybody, and better then most of us. I also like Fitzgerald/CJ at Wr1/2. So why don't I like the team better?

Well...what I don't like: Three rookie WR's. Rookie WR's are a huge gamble. Most don't pay off. Even the better ones rarely pay off big, and those "better" ones are often 3rd, 4th, even 7th rounders, impossible to predict. It's one thing to gamble and take one WR you think may be that rookie stud, but three is too many, and as a result Rudy has no real depth at WR. He needed it, especially after choosing Ginn as his WR3. He has a rookie at RB3 too, and it isn't one of the big three. Yet another rookie at RB5.

OK...if a couple of these rookies land in the right spot and become starters for their teams, Rudy may have a solid team, maybe even a contender. The problem is, I can't see any of these particular rookies as likely to do that, let alone the (at least) two of them he'll need. Worse...those rookies will have to emerge early in the season, because they aren't just the deep depth...they are the shallow depth too.

16. ShadowMaster (from slot 5):

QB: 3.05 Carson Palmer, Cin, QB4 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8), 18.12 Brady Quinn, CLE, QB34 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5), 19.05 Steve McNair, Bal, QB35 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 20.12 Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN, QB41 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

RB: 4.12 Jamal Lewis, Cle, RB20 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 5), 5.05 Lendale White, Ten, RB26 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6), 8.12 Selvin Young, Den, RB36 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 8), 10.12 Tatum Bell, Det, RB48 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

WR: 1.05 Randy Moss, NE, WR1 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 2.12 Wes Welker, NE, WR6 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4), 6.12 Nate Burleson, Sea, WR40 (REPICK via steal) (BYE = 4), 7.05 Patrick Crayton, Dal, WR41 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10), 14.12 Dennis Northcutt, Jac, WR73 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7), 15.05 Antonio Chatman, Cin, WR76 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8)

TE: 9.05 Eric Johnson, NO, TE16 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9), 11.05 Randy McMichael, SL, TE21 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5)

PK: 13.05 Adam Vinatieri, Ind, PK2 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 4), 17.05 Olindo Mare, Sea, PK29 (REPICK) (BYE = 4)

DST: 12.12 Pittsburgh Steelers, DST12 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 6), 16.12 Kansas City Chiefs, DST30 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 6)

I like Palmer at QB, but who is his backup on this team? I see four QB's, but only one starter. There's no RB1, but all four could contribute. Not sure what to think of Moss/Welker as the first two WR's, other then Shadow obviously thinks that New England will repeat the aerial dominance of last season. Even if they do, it's hard to see Burleson/Crayton/Northcutt matching their production on the bye week. TE is not a strong point of this team either, although Johnson/McMichael should provide an adequate combo. When I look at this team, there is no glaring weakness, but there is no obvious strength either. Just the opposite...every position seems just a little bit weak, a little bit below average. When every position is a little below average, the sum total ends up well below average.

 
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CONCLUSIONS:

I expected to find a strong correlation between the numbers (in the statistics post) and the quality of the teams. But the data seems...inconsistant. By these numbers, it could be inferred that Radballs, Shadow, Blue-Kun, and Old Milwaukee should have the strongest teams (robbed less and no more then one wasted steal). It's interesting to note that they drafted from slots 1, 5, 14, and 15. In my final rankings, these teams ranked 10, 16, 12, and 2. While I pondered that, I thought that maybe the guys drafting poorly naturally were robbed less, but Old Milwaukee seemed to counter that thought.

Using the same logic to determine/predict the worst teams, it could be inferred that Jeter, Jeff, and Rudnicki should be among the worst teams. Jeter followed that theory by ranking 13th, but Jeff and Ruds ranked at 4 and 5...not real high but well in the top half.

It has been suggested that this draft flips the normal order of things, making the 16th pick more valuable then the 1st. Jeter (13) and Old Milwaukee (2) follow that theory from the 15th and 2nd slots, but Radballs (ranked 10th) and Duckboy (ranked 6th) give at least some pause. When you consider how the 3rd and 14th slots did (Reaper and Blue-Kun at rank 7 and 12), the theory is just that, a theory. The correlation exists, but seems weak.

It was also argued that the ends had a much easier time then the middle, because of the natural locks for their picks, making more of their picks inaccessible to steals. I have argued against that theory, but acknowledged that the ends did have a SIMPLER job in the draft process. I would think that the fact that 4 out of the top 5 ranked teams came from the middle of the draft (slots 7, 15, 10, 4, and 11) tend to dispel the thought that the ends have an unfair advantage. The even spread of slots may come as a mild surprise to many.

The big question was, and remains: How viable is this draft format for fairness in a fantasy football setting? The data, and rankings, to me, suggest that the format is very viable in the fact that it has enough randomness to make draft position almost immaterial to the odds of success. Unfortunately, that randomness can also give one team a mild random advantage (like Old Millwaukee), or a huge disadvantage (like Jeter). On balance, I think that the format is no more or less fair then any other ordered draft, but is probably an inapropriate format for rookies due to the complex strategies and predictive abilities necessary which can only be developed after the experiance of many drafts over several years. The lesson of Jeter shows us that it is possible to be hamstrung unfairly. It's difficult to say whether this would be typical in these drafts, or whether Jeter is a statistical outlier. Until we know, the White Elephant should be considered inapropriate for big money leagues.

It would take a dozen more of these drafts in order to prove or disprove my conclusions. To this point in time, we've only done two.

Other random strategic thoughts:

Blue-Kun saved his steals, attempting only 1 in the first five rounds, probably thinking to get value back later. He ranked 12th in the end, so I'm not sure that's a good strategy.

If you aren't getting robbed, is it because you're lucky (Milwaukee), or are you drafting players well outside of expected ranges (Shadow). It's possible Shadow was trying to pick so as NOT to be robbed in the first couple of rounds. His final ranking suggests to me that you can only reach so far to avoid getting robbed before you're really, in effect, robbing yourself. It reminds me of my first pick last year, Brian Westbrook. Westy was considered a mid first rounder last year, so I didn't stretch far, and I did keep him. Is Moss a mid first rounder? From fairly early in the order, using a steal in the second to obtain late first/early second round quality should have been a no-brainer. Shadow used another fresh pick on Welker.

There is far more danger in waiting in this type of draft. Wait too long for you second QB, and that QB might be stolen by somebody else needing one. Wait too long on your second PK, you may find that the one you wanted to steal was locked up before you could steal them, and there are none left with sure jobs.

IN most drafts, the ends have to try to predict the runs in order to not get screwed by the runs. In white elephant, you can predict the run, and draft ahead of the run, but still get screwed when your player is stolen. Yeah, you can steal yourself,but what if your steal gets stolen? You can wait until your next turn, but then you are one round late, and the safe steals aren't even close in quality to your original choice. Further anecdoctal proof that the ends do NOT have a real advantage over the middle.

 
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I think you over analyzing has your head in the clouds.

All 5 of my starting core players finished ahead of yours last year.

Palmer > McNabb

Lewis > Gore

White > Parker

Moss > Marshall

Welker > Crothery

Yet you feel your team is 3rd overall and mine is 16th?

Yeah - I have bye week issues and I don't expect to go all the way, but your RB combo had 8 TD TOTAL last year. Gore fell way back to earth and enter Martz for 2008 = a few <10 carry games. Better hope he can PPR for you. Parker struggled to score in the new Pitt O, and they just signed ANOTHER goal line back.

Both of us have QBs who underperformed last year, but Palmer was much higher in TD total 26 to 19.

Sorry mate - gonna have to agree to disagree on this on with ya. With the exception of the bye week issues and the backup QB, this team is very solid.

 
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ShadowPhunk said:
I think you over analyzing has your head in the clouds.

All 5 of my starting core players finished ahead of yours last year.

Palmer > McNabb

Lewis > Gore

White > Parker

Moss > Marshall

Welker > Crothery

Yet you feel your team is 3rd overall and mine is 16th?

Yeah - I have bye week issues and I don't expect to go all the way, but your RB combo had 8 TD TOTAL last year. Gore fell way back to earth and enter Martz for 2008 = a few <10 carry games. Better hope he can PPR for you. Parker struggled to score in the new Pitt O, and they just signed ANOTHER goal line back.

Both of us have QBs who underperformed last year, but Palmer was much higher in TD total 26 to 19.

Sorry mate - gonna have to agree to disagree on this on with ya. With the exception of the bye week issues and the backup QB, this team is very solid.
who is that?
 
My ranking is fine, I think you overstate the issue of having 1 TE as in large your 2nd TE is just window dressing 13 out of 17 weeks for most squads. However I don't see OM's at all, he has a questionable QB#1 and no clear QB#2 (you know, like me, except we've actually seen the upside from DA), no RB depth and a streaky TE who hasn't lived up to a decent amount of hype.

Seems like an odd choice for 2nd best team in the league.

Big ups for such a detailed blog / posts though. ;)

 
I hope everyone enjoyed this.

I enjoyed every pick - but maybe not all the steals. ;)

FWIW - there was never any real anger. It quickly morphed into shtick, which was fine by me.

Now for a real draft to watch.... :popcorn:

 
my top 3 are rudy, shadow, and rads but ill put my team against any of em

hell of a write up there rene

not sure i followed all of it but it was definately informative and entertaining

 
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I'm lost on how I wasted 3 steals.

ADP I get - risky I know, but the pick didn't stick, so I guess that's considered a wasted steal?

The second one was - Cooley? That was a wasted steal? We've been down that road - I thought there was little to no chance of someone behind me stealing a TE.

What was #3?

 
What was #3?
Mendenhall, so I guess I personally accounted for two of your three wasted ones. :mellow: Great post rene. I think my team is a bit stronger for surviving than you're giving it credit for, but that's why they play the games. I think Fiddles is right on track. :useless: It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
 
What was #3?
Mendenhall, so I guess I personally accounted for two of your three wasted ones. :excited: Great post rene. I think my team is a bit stronger for surviving than you're giving it credit for, but that's why they play the games. I think Fiddles is right on track. :lmao: It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
Oh, thanks for the reminder.:finger: :hot: ;)
 
What was #3?
Mendenhall, so I guess I personally accounted for two of your three wasted ones. :excited: Great post rene. I think my team is a bit stronger for surviving than you're giving it credit for, but that's why they play the games. I think Fiddles is right on track. :lmao: It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
Oh, thanks for the reminder.
No way do I call those last two "wasted steals". How can I predict if Radballs will steal my steal?FlaVVed commentary, IMHO to call that a waste. There's nothing I can do there to protect my steal.
 
Blue-Kun saved his steals, attempting only 1 in the first five rounds, probably thinking to get value back later.
Actually I didn't steal much because I was happy with the guys I was fresh-picking. No real need to steal when I'm getting guys on the same tier level anyway.
 
What was #3?
Mendenhall, so I guess I personally accounted for two of your three wasted ones. :( Great post rene. I think my team is a bit stronger for surviving than you're giving it credit for, but that's why they play the games. I think Fiddles is right on track. :lmao: It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
Oh, thanks for the reminder.
No way do I call those last two "wasted steals". How can I predict if Radballs will steal my steal?FlaVVed commentary, IMHO to call that a waste. There's nothing I can do there to protect my steal.
Wasted steal is, by definition, a steal that was stolen again. IE; unsuccessfuly utilizing a steal in an attempt to aquire a player. I was not saying that a wasted steal is always taking a bad chance.
 
ShadowPhunk said:
I think you over analyzing has your head in the clouds.

All 5 of my starting core players finished ahead of yours last year.

Palmer > McNabb

Lewis > Gore

White > Parker

Moss > Marshall

Welker > Crothery

Yet you feel your team is 3rd overall and mine is 16th?

Yeah - I have bye week issues and I don't expect to go all the way, but your RB combo had 8 TD TOTAL last year. Gore fell way back to earth and enter Martz for 2008 = a few <10 carry games. Better hope he can PPR for you. Parker struggled to score in the new Pitt O, and they just signed ANOTHER goal line back.

Both of us have QBs who underperformed last year, but Palmer was much higher in TD total 26 to 19.

Sorry mate - gonna have to agree to disagree on this on with ya. With the exception of the bye week issues and the backup QB, this team is very solid.
who is that?
Please don't take these things personally. There were no weak drafters in this league, and the difference between the best looking team, and the worst is not that big. All 16 of us could rank the teams, and have dramaticly different rankings, depending on what we were looking for.The reasons I have your team so low were explained in the post, but to further clarify:

Only one QB, but four draft picks...sacrificed potential depth elsewhere. If Palmer is NOT a stud, you have no other QB to pick him up on a down week. IE: Palmer MUST be studly more often then not for you to succeed. Not a good formula long term.

Two NE WR's in rounds 1/2. Besides sharing the same bye, you are gambling that NE is as successful this year as last, and can suport two studs week in/week out. Not disastrous, but risky.

Do you really see Lewis outperforming Gore again?

Do you really see Parker NOT scoring a bunch more TD's? I'd place a signature bet that Parker outscores White by at least 5% in this format, barring injuries.

Moss and Welker may be > Marshall and Cotchery, but this is survivor, counting THREE WR's every week, and I'd easily put the rest of my depth against yours.

Palmer may or may not outscore McNabb. Considering the mess in Cincy, I wouldn't count heavily on that.

You have what I'd consider an above average set of front line players (QB1/RB1/WR1/WR2), but terrible depth, and far too much risk in key spots. Forced to bet, I would say that your team will average a higher score then at least 5 others in the league, but will have several very low scoring weeks that will result in an earlier then expected boot.

 
OldMilwaukee said:
Had to stop reading when I read how much

Renesauz :thumbup: McNabb
On a PPG basis, McNabb has outscored all but a couple of QB's over the past several years. Injuries have been his downfall, not talent. It's the wrong place/thread to argue about what his injuries mean, but I beleive his injuries have been quirky, and not of the repetitive type. I've also acknowledged that if I'm wrong about him, my team drops dramaticly.

 
What was #3?
Mendenhall, so I guess I personally accounted for two of your three wasted ones. :thumbup: Great post rene. I think my team is a bit stronger for surviving than you're giving it credit for, but that's why they play the games. I think Fiddles is right on track. :goodposting: It was a lot of fun, but it is still very confusing and I'm not sure this format could ever really be embraced by most FFers with money on the line.
Oh, thanks for the reminder.
No way do I call those last two "wasted steals". How can I predict if Radballs will steal my steal?FlaVVed commentary, IMHO to call that a waste. There's nothing I can do there to protect my steal.
Wasted steal is, by definition, a steal that was stolen again. IE; unsuccessfuly utilizing a steal in an attempt to aquire a player. I was not saying that a wasted steal is always taking a bad chance.
Okay, I can buy into that. Thanks for clarifying.
 
I was really looking forward to this when I got home. My phone would tell me it was up, but would not show it too me due to size.

You did not dissappoint. Great effort and good job.

When it comes to team rankings, we are all going to rank our players/team higher. Unless we lose them all. They are on our team because we like them. Maybe some bad byes announced after could change this, but I don't think anyone trying to win would rank their team last.

I'll explain my draft in the next post.

Thank you all, and renesauz in particular.

 
14. Pictus Cat (from slot 13):

QB: 7.13 Phillip Rivers, SD, QB14 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9),

9.13 Alex Smith, SF, QB28 (REPICK) (BYE = 9),

19.13 Chris Redman, Atl, QB36 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7),

20.04 Kyle Boller, BAL, QB37 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10)

RB: 1.13 Steven Jackson, SL, RB2 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 5),

2.04 Laurence Maroney, NE, RB17 (REPICK via repick) (BYE = 4),

8.04 Leon Washington, NYJ, RB40 (REPICK) (BYE = 5),

10.04 Kenton Keith, Ind, RB43 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4),

14.04 Kevin Faulk, NE, RB55 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

WR: 4.04 Greg Jennings, GB, WR18 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8),

5.13 Lavernous Coles, NYJ, WR31 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 5),

6.04 Joey Galloway, TB, WR34 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 10),

13.13 Devin Hester, Chi, WR68 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 8),

15.13 Ben Obomanu, SEA, WR78 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4),

16.04 Robert Meachem, NO, WR80 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 9)

TE: 3.13 Jason Witten, Dal, TE3 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 10),

18.04 Leonard Pope, Ari, TE29 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 7)

PK: 12.04 Stephen Gostkowski, NE, PK1 (Fresh Pick) (BYE = 4)

DST: 11.13 Minnesotta Vikings, DST4 (REPICK) (BYE = 8),

17.13 New Orleans Saints, DST32 (VIA STEAL) (BYE = 9)
What a strange team! Pictus was one of the last to take a QB1, which is fine, but then he was also one of the last to take QB2. When the byes bit him, PC took two more QB's late. In the end, PC may have FOUR STARTERS! Too bad none of them are likely to have many QB1 type weeks. QB1 by commitee?
Byes hit hard! Rivers has a ton of weapons, Alex Smith is a Martz sleeper, Redman & Boller are Bye fill, but also QBs my opponents won't have if I have 4 starters. Perhaps Rivers/Smith are my "Pasquino Grant."
PC's starting Rb's are pretty solid with Jackson and Maroney leading the way, but his backups have limited upside should one of his starters go down long term.
Never thought Maroney would drop 26 picks. My backups dropped in my opinion too, as they should get good reception numbers. Bye issues, but early bye issues. If I get past them with only four teams eliminated, I'm good."backups have limited upside" Um, guess we agree to disagree on Keith

At WR, there is no legit WR1, but Jennings/Coles/Galloway should provide an adequate top three. They better, because there isn't much behind them.
A top TE can put you back for WR1, but I like my recovery. 3 WR 2s. Hester is a homer guess, but in this format, I think he is the Bear most likely to take it to the house any given play. Obamanu has Branch, Burleson, and Engram ahead of him and I think he has a shot to outperform or perform in their absence which has happened in the past. Meachem seems like one of those forgoten injured or rookie players that should come back and have a chance at 2nd year improvement towards the talent he was drafted for. I may have a weakness or a strength when it comes to WRs. I have been successfull picking late flyers in the past and am probably overconfident in that ability. I guess I'm letting it ride and seeing where it goes.
TE is probably PC's best position, but if Witten goes down, Pope won't provide much insurance.
Even though I'm a little higher on Pope than most, I think this is a good pairing. What TE was I supposed to back Witten up with.
I may be judging this team too harshly, but I simply think the depth is in all the wrong places, and the team will fail early because of it.
Harsh away. Tell why I'm wrong. Educate me. The expression of what you think and why may sway me. It's why I come here. Thank you, again.

 
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Thanks very much Rene for ALL of your hard work during the draft and with your post-draft evaluations!!!!

I think I can honestly say you hit the nail on the head with my team just screaming average. I'm not going to say that I think my team ranks higher than 11.

I will say that I think I did the best I could at my draft spot. I tried to draft or steal value in each round. I attempted to steal Fitz after losing Larry Johnson to Radballs, but Fitz was stolen by Rudi. (Radballs stole Johnson with the last possible spot he could be stolen.) The Fitz steal backfired on me so I waited until I could lock someone up. That was Boldin with my next steal. I then locked him up with Edge, figuring correctly that he would not be stolen. My chance at a true RB1 was gone by this time. I actually think Edge will have a great year and will end up being a RB1 in this format when all is said and done. The WR Chris Henry pick looked good to me until he did again what seems to come naturally to him. What a dolt.

All-in-all, I think I did Ok and I'll be very happy to get past week 7.

I also look forward to the next time we have one of these drafts!

 
Very interesting read. Thanks for taking the time writing up this up rene. As far as proclaiming my team the one to beat, I'm a little suprised. I can a few teams out there I like a little more. Also I have to live with the fact that the team that looks the best after the draft rarely finishes there. Thanks for putting the broadcaster jinx on fro squadrin.

 
Very interesting read. Thanks for taking the time writing up this up rene. As far as proclaiming my team the one to beat, I'm a little suprised. I can a few teams out there I like a little more. Also I have to live with the fact that the team that looks the best after the draft rarely finishes there. Thanks for putting the broadcaster jinx on fro squadrin.
All too happy too oblige! :goodposting:
 

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