TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Often times, it's not your 1st/2nd rounders that drive you to the title, but moreso, the forgotten values and players coming off bad years or perceived dissolving situations. Think Mike Evans, Kyler Murray, Courtland Sutton, Isaiah Pacheco, Rachaad White who last offseason at this time were generating little buzz...but feel much more logical in hindsight. So who are yours? Here's my sampling...
My 52-week lows?
Tony Pollard RB25-28; I'm probably getting downright annoying now with how much I'm on his train. But he was coming off a bad leg injury...also assuming a much larger workload. Meanwhile Dak returned to form. So off he goes to TEN (3yr, $21M) where he'll split work with 2nd year RB Tyjae Spears. With Will Levis likely not passing the ball 580-600 times like you'd see Dak do. Still just 27 with 938 career touches. Yes, his workload likely won't be 70% of the touches...but I could see efficiency returning and OL is built to bruise.
Austin Ekeler RB32-35; Longer in the tooth (29 back in May) and he looked like he lost a step last year. But I'm betting that was due to that ankle he injured in Week 1. His career touches are in a bit of a danger zone (1430)...but a third of those are receptions so the less concerning kind. And while he was probably consensus RB2 overall last year...that's coming off 38 TD's in 21-22. But I'm guessing that his versatility inside the RZ will be a boon to Daniels who'll also draw alot of attention himself. 225 touches/65 being receptions feels about right.
Deshaun Watson QB20;-22 His 'brand' still feels radioactive...perhaps deservedly so. but let's take out the game he got hurt early in...he was on pace for 3775 passing yards, 480 rushing yards 24 passing TD's/4 rushing TD's. And people seem to be calling it a career. And that 3rd game of 2023 was what I'd term a vintage Deshaun game. And they got him Jerry Jeudy.
Aaron Rodgers QB20-22; Is there a more powerful player in the NFL right now? The Jets clearly need him more than he needs them. His offensive coordinator has become a punchline...after talking about 'what it takes to win'...blew off a mandatory minicamp and left his HC to explain the absence. He might have more organizational power than Woody Johnson - I mean I kind of feel like he's running his own NFL franchise how he sees fit. I have to think that means having the ball in his hands A TON. QB21 seems quite low for that kind of power. It could all blow-up and it is the Jets...but it's not like the personnel sucks here.
Christian Kirk WR30-35; Since he's gotten to JAX, his 17-game averages are 83/1111/6. You can argue that his TD production is what keeps him low although he had 8 in 2022. But he's the #1 WR on an offense that just made their QB the highest paid one in the game and let the other quasi #1 WR on the roster go (Ridley). Really feels overlooked, almost like Tyler Lockett's successor.
Quentin Johnson WR60-70; Yes, it was a rough rookie season. But wasn't it generally acknowledged that his game coming into the NFL was raw? Yes, Harbaugh likes to run the ball. But he's not running the ball 750 times this year and Justin Herbert is still there. Plus, that type of philosophy is designed to open up plays downfield - Johnson's strength. I'm not saying draft this guy as your WR2, but going in the same range Darnell Mooney, Marvin Mims?
Brock Bowers TE10-14; I almost got the sense that the NFL was apologetic for having Bowers drop to 13...and to LV no less. but TE is a position you draft on upside. Aside from the elites, the week-to-week production simply isn't there and even then...the elites have to put up elite numbers. In a world where Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid are going TE3/4 in some cases, Bowers feels criminally low.
My 52-week lows?
Tony Pollard RB25-28; I'm probably getting downright annoying now with how much I'm on his train. But he was coming off a bad leg injury...also assuming a much larger workload. Meanwhile Dak returned to form. So off he goes to TEN (3yr, $21M) where he'll split work with 2nd year RB Tyjae Spears. With Will Levis likely not passing the ball 580-600 times like you'd see Dak do. Still just 27 with 938 career touches. Yes, his workload likely won't be 70% of the touches...but I could see efficiency returning and OL is built to bruise.
Austin Ekeler RB32-35; Longer in the tooth (29 back in May) and he looked like he lost a step last year. But I'm betting that was due to that ankle he injured in Week 1. His career touches are in a bit of a danger zone (1430)...but a third of those are receptions so the less concerning kind. And while he was probably consensus RB2 overall last year...that's coming off 38 TD's in 21-22. But I'm guessing that his versatility inside the RZ will be a boon to Daniels who'll also draw alot of attention himself. 225 touches/65 being receptions feels about right.
Deshaun Watson QB20;-22 His 'brand' still feels radioactive...perhaps deservedly so. but let's take out the game he got hurt early in...he was on pace for 3775 passing yards, 480 rushing yards 24 passing TD's/4 rushing TD's. And people seem to be calling it a career. And that 3rd game of 2023 was what I'd term a vintage Deshaun game. And they got him Jerry Jeudy.
Aaron Rodgers QB20-22; Is there a more powerful player in the NFL right now? The Jets clearly need him more than he needs them. His offensive coordinator has become a punchline...after talking about 'what it takes to win'...blew off a mandatory minicamp and left his HC to explain the absence. He might have more organizational power than Woody Johnson - I mean I kind of feel like he's running his own NFL franchise how he sees fit. I have to think that means having the ball in his hands A TON. QB21 seems quite low for that kind of power. It could all blow-up and it is the Jets...but it's not like the personnel sucks here.
Christian Kirk WR30-35; Since he's gotten to JAX, his 17-game averages are 83/1111/6. You can argue that his TD production is what keeps him low although he had 8 in 2022. But he's the #1 WR on an offense that just made their QB the highest paid one in the game and let the other quasi #1 WR on the roster go (Ridley). Really feels overlooked, almost like Tyler Lockett's successor.
Quentin Johnson WR60-70; Yes, it was a rough rookie season. But wasn't it generally acknowledged that his game coming into the NFL was raw? Yes, Harbaugh likes to run the ball. But he's not running the ball 750 times this year and Justin Herbert is still there. Plus, that type of philosophy is designed to open up plays downfield - Johnson's strength. I'm not saying draft this guy as your WR2, but going in the same range Darnell Mooney, Marvin Mims?
Brock Bowers TE10-14; I almost got the sense that the NFL was apologetic for having Bowers drop to 13...and to LV no less. but TE is a position you draft on upside. Aside from the elites, the week-to-week production simply isn't there and even then...the elites have to put up elite numbers. In a world where Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid are going TE3/4 in some cases, Bowers feels criminally low.
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