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Who are your Swing for the Fences Dynasty Rookies? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Black
- Start date
Avery
Footballguy
Depends on how deep you want to go. I definte a "swing for the fences" sort of pick as if you hit, you'll hit big and if you miss you'll miss big - not much of a chance for a "double".
In that, I like Patterson and Hunter a lot.
chickensoup
Footballguy
Pretty much every single guy you listed is going within the first 7ish rounds of dynasty. Not exactly swing for the fences kind of guys. Just rookies taken in the rookie draft this year.
As a rule of thumb (at least for me) noone who could foreseeable be drafted in a redaft can be considered for this. Lattimore is the only one you put up that won't.
As a rule of thumb (at least for me) noone who could foreseeable be drafted in a redaft can be considered for this. Lattimore is the only one you put up that won't.
Avery
Footballguy
I'm not trying to sounds like a jackass, but I think you've missed the meaning of the idiom "swing for the fences".
It references swinging hard - increasing the chance of a home run but also increasing the chance of a whiff. In this case we're talking about "high upside, low floor" guys. That doesn't mean the same thing as a "flyer" (i.e. late round) pick.
I think a good example of be Hopkins vs Patterson.
Hopkins seems to be the safest, most pro-ready rookie WR. A very solid player who should be up good numbers out of the gate.
Patterson is a swing for the fences pick. Off the chart measurables, but needs to work on a lot of things like route running, etc. If he hits, it should be big, but he could also entirely wash out.
They are both going around the same time in rookie drafts.... Patterson is the "swing for the fences" pick.
chickensoup
Footballguy
But it's pretty much never an either or. It's a take one guy in round A and another in round B in startups .that's not swinging for the fences, that's taking a rookie too early.
In a rookie draft would you ever take Michael over Gio? If you do you are bat#### crazy to not just trade down on your pick. High ceiling vs safer makes almost no sense when comparing rookies for a startup either.
If your talking taking an Austin over Andre Johnson type of deal in a startup, that's just down to roster preference and when you want to try to win.
The premise of the OP seems to mostly be list for me the top rookies for dynasty. I can link any number of references all similar but slightly different if you want. But that's a topic that's been discussed a lot
Black
Footballguy
Yup, that's the discussion I was hoping for. I often make the playoffs but don't win out. Rarely get very high picks, so wondering what the best move is in mid-round of the 1st or 2nd...time to swing for the fences?
Anyways...are you guys risking this in Round 1 or early rounds? I think these examples are very appropriate.
But also, Kelce over Eifert (although Kelce taken maybe 1 round later?
Avery
Footballguy
You're still kinda missing the point.
Perhaps it has been discussed, but the OP is asking about the super high upside guys. It doesn't mean that they are drafted early, it's looking at "boom-bust" guys over safe guys. I don't know why this wouldn't apply equally to rookies as it does to vets. Sure we have less information to go on, but it doesn't mean we can't make our educated guesses. After all, that's all this hobby is about anyway.
Patterson vs. Hopkins
Hunter vs. Woods
We all have to rank guys in order but it doesn't mean there are different "flavors" of guys that can be grabbed at around the same time in rookie drafts.
Avery
Footballguy
To get back on topic, I think it depends on what your roster looks like.
In our league I have ridiculous depth at WR. I was drafting at 1.06 and all the top RBs were gone with Hopkins and Patterson staring at me.
Because this was going to be my WR7, I took the big upside guy in Patterson. I didn't need this pick to start for me anytime soon and valued a big upside play I could wait to develop over the guy that I thought would do well out of the gate, but may never reach the top WR tier. The "swing for the fences" pick fit better into my team.
Having said that, overall I think you win by taking chances so I tend to err on the side of swinging hard. Go big or go home!
In our league I have ridiculous depth at WR. I was drafting at 1.06 and all the top RBs were gone with Hopkins and Patterson staring at me.
Because this was going to be my WR7, I took the big upside guy in Patterson. I didn't need this pick to start for me anytime soon and valued a big upside play I could wait to develop over the guy that I thought would do well out of the gate, but may never reach the top WR tier. The "swing for the fences" pick fit better into my team.
Having said that, overall I think you win by taking chances so I tend to err on the side of swinging hard. Go big or go home!
Black
Footballguy
I think you are getting to the point of my somewhat unclear question...my WR are pretty good/deep, and I was thinking until Le'Veon got hurt and Lacy surged that I would be looking at them to bolster my weak RBs at 1.04/1.05. I thought C.Michael would be there early 2nd round (10 team league), but he's moving up to a mid-late 1st it seems.
Similarly, everyone seems to love the safeness of DeAndre. He seems fine to me (except with his current concussion like symptoms), but guys like DeAndre or Tavon Austin seem like much higher upside (and actually fairly safe for PPR).
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Goodwin
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
New year new 7th rounder named Brice.
Ditto. ?DaRick Rogers. It's not going so well.
traderallenpoe
Footballguy
I swung for fences this year with Justin Hunter at 1.8 and then Lattimore at 1.10 followed by Kelce at 2.15
Hoping at least 1 pays off
Hoping at least 1 pays off
miqws
Footballguy
With the expectation of more misses than hits, here are some deep sleepers that have had some noise, no particular order:
1. Marlon Brown WR Bal - got touches in 3rd preseason game. T. Smith and J Jones same type of player. This might be Boldin's replacement
2. CJ Anderson RB Den - it is not like someone is taking that job outright. He is currently hurt (sprained knee)
3. Stepfan Taylor RB Ari - more about opportunity than talent, sell high if it happens
4. Knile Davis RB KC - if Charles gets hurt, opportunity knocks. Andy Reid will have to coach him up, but Westbrook, McCoy, B. Brown, C.Polk, none first round, not a bad track record.
5. Kenny Stills WR NO - Colston and Moore are getting old, worth it to keep stabbing at NO under it hits
6. Kerwynn Wiliams RN Ind - a swing for the fences special, grab any rookie that may play with Luck
1. Marlon Brown WR Bal - got touches in 3rd preseason game. T. Smith and J Jones same type of player. This might be Boldin's replacement
2. CJ Anderson RB Den - it is not like someone is taking that job outright. He is currently hurt (sprained knee)
3. Stepfan Taylor RB Ari - more about opportunity than talent, sell high if it happens
4. Knile Davis RB KC - if Charles gets hurt, opportunity knocks. Andy Reid will have to coach him up, but Westbrook, McCoy, B. Brown, C.Polk, none first round, not a bad track record.
5. Kenny Stills WR NO - Colston and Moore are getting old, worth it to keep stabbing at NO under it hits
6. Kerwynn Wiliams RN Ind - a swing for the fences special, grab any rookie that may play with Luck
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
some WRs come to mind for me...
swing for the fences could mean to some deep, deep sleepers, but most didn't interpret it that way and i'm not...
i'm thinking of non-obvious, after top 3 types by position...
but if patterson fits criteria, than i would include him... he certainly looks like he has huge upside, so in that sense, if he hits, he could be dez/julio good, the kind of player that goes in top 10 of a startup dynasty in two years... if you define it like that, absolutely patterson could be a swing for the fences pick...
hunter came to mind in the sense i don't have time to scout every prospect as thoroughly, sometimes it happens that over the course of five, staggered dynasty drafts (IDP, so time is divided right from the jump
), i feel like in some cases i better understood and appreciated a given prospect later in the process... hunter was one of these players for me, got him in two of five leagues, but later wished it had been more...
stedman bailey fell into this category as well... i don't think he has as much upside as hunter (let alone patterson), and i don't like as much (though he is cheaper and could represent very good value), but he is another player i felt like i "discovered", or my eyes more fully opened up to his potential, relatively late in the process... only got him in one league, wish i had gotten him in more...
* at TE, jordan reed was third rounder, i think if davis moves on and he becomes starter, he could be a top 10 TE in few years... he isn't hernandez (oft-comped, both preps in conn, i think, played collegiately at florida) but won't need to be to have top 10 upside...
swing for the fences could mean to some deep, deep sleepers, but most didn't interpret it that way and i'm not...
i'm thinking of non-obvious, after top 3 types by position...
but if patterson fits criteria, than i would include him... he certainly looks like he has huge upside, so in that sense, if he hits, he could be dez/julio good, the kind of player that goes in top 10 of a startup dynasty in two years... if you define it like that, absolutely patterson could be a swing for the fences pick...
hunter came to mind in the sense i don't have time to scout every prospect as thoroughly, sometimes it happens that over the course of five, staggered dynasty drafts (IDP, so time is divided right from the jump
), i feel like in some cases i better understood and appreciated a given prospect later in the process... hunter was one of these players for me, got him in two of five leagues, but later wished it had been more...stedman bailey fell into this category as well... i don't think he has as much upside as hunter (let alone patterson), and i don't like as much (though he is cheaper and could represent very good value), but he is another player i felt like i "discovered", or my eyes more fully opened up to his potential, relatively late in the process... only got him in one league, wish i had gotten him in more...
* at TE, jordan reed was third rounder, i think if davis moves on and he becomes starter, he could be a top 10 TE in few years... he isn't hernandez (oft-comped, both preps in conn, i think, played collegiately at florida) but won't need to be to have top 10 upside...
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