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Who do we target? - Chris Johnson (1 Viewer)

bengalbuck, on 20 October 2011 - 04:27 PM, said:Englishteacher, on 20 October 2011 - 04:05 PM, said:Start 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1tekeep 6 dynasty, 72 players kept year to year, 12 round rookie/vet draft every yearI gave Romo, Turner, Witten and 2012 1st and second round picksforNewton, Gore, and Gates...my team just missed the playoffs last year and is doing well this year so the picks shouldn't be that early...got younger at qb with I think a little better of a ceiling...brings my core nucleus to QB Newton, RB McFadden, RB Mendenhall, WR Nicks... all 25 and younger5th keeper would be Gore and 6th keeper will come down to either Tebow, Gates, or Aaron Hernanadezwhat do you guys think? I gave up a lot but I like the young nucleus... I should be comepetive for years to come barring major injuriesDepends on scoring, but it seems like kind of a lot to give up. But I guess Newton may be worth it in the long run. I sometimes forget how high his ceiling could be with all the rushing TDs. He's the only truly long term keeper that changed hands, so from that perspective, you definitely got the best player in the deal. I'm almost talking myself out of my initial reaction which was that the 2 picks were too much for a relatively minor upgrade...Also, Aaron Hernandez seems like a no brainer as a keeper from my perspective. He's still only 21 years old and currently 2nd in TE points per game (ppr). I personally have him as a top 4 dynasty TE along with Finley, Graham and Witten. Thanks for the input. Losing the picks next year is def going to hurt. But I like my starting lineup a lot. Depth will certainly be an issue though. This was certainly a long term move though. I don't see any big moves as my foundation is set.I'm actually looking at another move where I would give up Gore (28 years old) and get Chris Johnson. Looks like this:GoreGatesEric Decker2012 3rd rounder2013 1st rounderforJohnsonHeath MillerDwayne BoweThis would really hurt me this year without Johnson producing but that would give me a scary nucleus of Newton, Mcafadden, Chris Johnson, Nicks and then either Bowe or Hernandez as my last keeper. I'd deal one or the other if I were out of playoff contention to get a pick back for next year.Thanks for the help bud!
I know nobody cares exactly about my team but I agree that in a dynasty format the time is right for aquiring JOhnson. His value is at an all time low. WOuldn't mind seeing some other offers that people are putting out there for CJ.
 
First of all Sabertooth, great job dude. I feel your pain I have CJ in a lot of leagues as well, so I decided to do a little digging of my own.

After doing some research with Jared Cook's snaps, I realized that he'd often get pulled in running situations. This made me wonder if the Titans offense was being predictable or if this was standard in the league. Well, judge for yourself:

Check out these statistics from PFF. This is the percentage of snaps that the TEs stay in to block. Anywhere from 40-60% IMO is balanced enough to prevent predictability.

Tight End Offensive Snap Summary: Run Blocking

2009 Titans

Crumpler: 60% Run Block

Scaife: 43% Run Block

2010 Titans

Scaife: 44% Run Block

Stevens: 60% Run Block

Cook: 32% Run Block

2011 Titans:

Cook: 17% Run Block

Stevens: 60% Run Block

Graham: 70% Run Block

2011 Texans:

Daniels: 45% Run Block

Dreesen: 52% Run Block

2011 Redskins:

Davis: 40% Run Block

Cooley: 57% Run Block

2011 Patriots:

Gronk: 41% Run Block

Hernandez: 38% Run Block

2011 Saints:

Graham: 27% Run Block

Gilmore: 70% Run Block

Thomas: 46% Run Block

Small sample of teams in the NFL who have good run games and deploy more than 1 TE just like the Titans. Exception is N.O. since they deploy a 2nd TE less, but I threw them in there anyway to see how they'd measure up.

So in a nutshell, with a slight exception to Jimmy Graham, every team's leading TE is doing a good amount of run blocking. But look at Cook in 2011, he's far and away the most predictable player on this list, even more so than Graham.

Also, the difference in percentages between all the tight ends on the same team is almost negligible, that is except for the Saints and Titans. Look at Gronk and Hernandez, 3% difference. Even the 2009 Titans, only a 17% difference isn't enough to be predictable. But there's a huge 43/53% gap between Cook and Stevens/Graham.

Cook's in the game? He blocks 16% of the time...this must be a pass. Here come Stevens and Graham, 60-70% chance this will be a run. Every other team is clearly less predictable than the Titans are ATM, even the Saints.

CJ, the oline, the change in scheme yea those are all to blame, but the personnel packages and playcalling look like they might be predictable. Clearly a product of the coaching change in TEN.

To me, all this data explains why it's taken so long to get back on track. I still think Johnson will play better than he has, he's too talented IMO. But obviously the more problems there are, the harder it will be to get back to CJ2K form.

Hell, right now I'd be happy with CJ1K.
:lmao: :lmao: yeah, and when they split cook out wide it's even more of a tip off.

 
Unless the price is cheap....I am not buying.

I saw somewhere - Chris Johnson has not had a run over 25 yards since week 1 of 2010! Now that is very concerning! (I have not bothered to look up or confirm that statement - just heard or read it somewhere recently)

 
Unless the price is cheap....I am not buying.I saw somewhere - Chris Johnson has not had a run over 25 yards since week 1 of 2010! Now that is very concerning! (I have not bothered to look up or confirm that statement - just heard or read it somewhere recently)
Had a 42 yarder in week 15 last year and a 37 yarder the week before.
 
Unless the price is cheap....I am not buying.I saw somewhere - Chris Johnson has not had a run over 25 yards since week 1 of 2010! Now that is very concerning! (I have not bothered to look up or confirm that statement - just heard or read it somewhere recently)
Had a 42 yarder in week 15 last year and a 37 yarder the week before.
I stand corrected. I knew I should have looked that up. I am not sure where I heard or read that. Either way I am not buying unless the price were right. I would spend a middle to late 2012 rookie first round pick. I would consider Mendenhall, Charles, Bradshaw type backs in a 1 for 1 trade. I guess it is just a matter of what your team needed.I would buy if I was fringe playoff team needing a huge spark - hoping he could get hot again and carry me to the playoffs. Almost desperation - but I would not mortgage my future on the guy.
 
First of all Sabertooth, great job dude. I feel your pain I have CJ in a lot of leagues as well, so I decided to do a little digging of my own.

After doing some research with Jared Cook's snaps, I realized that he'd often get pulled in running situations. This made me wonder if the Titans offense was being predictable or if this was standard in the league. Well, judge for yourself:

Check out these statistics from PFF. This is the percentage of snaps that the TEs stay in to block. Anywhere from 40-60% IMO is balanced enough to prevent predictability.

Tight End Offensive Snap Summary: Run Blocking

2009 Titans

Crumpler: 60% Run Block

Scaife: 43% Run Block

2010 Titans

Scaife: 44% Run Block

Stevens: 60% Run Block

Cook: 32% Run Block

2011 Titans:

Cook: 17% Run Block

Stevens: 60% Run Block

Graham: 70% Run Block

2011 Texans:

Daniels: 45% Run Block

Dreesen: 52% Run Block

2011 Redskins:

Davis: 40% Run Block

Cooley: 57% Run Block

2011 Patriots:

Gronk: 41% Run Block

Hernandez: 38% Run Block

2011 Saints:

Graham: 27% Run Block

Gilmore: 70% Run Block

Thomas: 46% Run Block

Small sample of teams in the NFL who have good run games and deploy more than 1 TE just like the Titans. Exception is N.O. since they deploy a 2nd TE less, but I threw them in there anyway to see how they'd measure up.

So in a nutshell, with a slight exception to Jimmy Graham, every team's leading TE is doing a good amount of run blocking. But look at Cook in 2011, he's far and away the most predictable player on this list, even more so than Graham.

Also, the difference in percentages between all the tight ends on the same team is almost negligible, that is except for the Saints and Titans. Look at Gronk and Hernandez, 3% difference. Even the 2009 Titans, only a 17% difference isn't enough to be predictable. But there's a huge 43/53% gap between Cook and Stevens/Graham.

Cook's in the game? He blocks 16% of the time...this must be a pass. Here come Stevens and Graham, 60-70% chance this will be a run. Every other team is clearly less predictable than the Titans are ATM, even the Saints.

CJ, the oline, the change in scheme yea those are all to blame, but the personnel packages and playcalling look like they might be predictable. Clearly a product of the coaching change in TEN.

To me, all this data explains why it's taken so long to get back on track. I still think Johnson will play better than he has, he's too talented IMO. But obviously the more problems there are, the harder it will be to get back to CJ2K form.

Hell, right now I'd be happy with CJ1K.
outstanding post . . .

 
I watch the Packers play and I'd state confidently that the Packers have 7 or 8 offensive lineman who would all start for the Titans and be among their top guys. Marshall Newhouse (Packers backup LT) makes his Titans counterpart look truly terrible. And he's a backup.
I get it that you had fuel to this fire before you made this comment, but you're quite wrong. Their LT is one of the best and a regular to the Pro Bowl and/or All Pro teams as is the RT. He just had a bad game.This game was terrible and I like some of your points and totally applaud your effort here. It's a fabulous contribution, thank you.This is the worst I saw them play in years or maybe ever. I mean nothing went right and it was just one of those games.There's a real problem with awesome line coach Mike Munchak becoming head coach and former Titan HOF Bruce Matthews becoming their line coach. I have zero idea what it is, but one certainly doesn't get the impression everything is fine while watching the game. Jake Scott came over from the Colts and he's always been erratic. I'm pretty sure that's why the Colts let him walk. He definitely had some moments though since joining the Titans; although he'll make your pull your hair out too.This line was phenomenal and you could drive a truck through their huge holes just a couple years ago. I see everyone compensating for someone else and few fulfilling assignments winding up in a big cluster. There is zero second level blocking as the TE and FB are always helping with someone instead. CJ has to have this. He's too fast, it must be there for him to get rolling. The WR blocks are pitiful, but the linemen have everyone's attention. When CJ runs outside, they get in the way more than they help. I'd rather they step out of bounds.Hall is a former marine playing FB. What image does that give you? Yeah that was him.He was suspended and just came back a week or two ago. He's older now, but if it was Hall leading the way and CJ behind him, they could take on anyone. They had this awesome understanding of which way the other would go, when a move should be made etc. That is not there. That confidence, that trust...it's gone. I don't know why, what happened etc. At times I see Hall destroy a LB or S and CJ runs into the defender as he lies on the ground. Other times he avoids it as if Hall will miss the block and runs right into someone else. IMO They're all pressing and acting stupid as many of us do at times in life.IMO they need to get back to whatever vanilla plays work and run them until they do. Stop being clever or cute, stop the finger pointing and overthinking, just run to one spot over and over like Gibs, BP, Knoll, Lombardi and others would have their teams do at times. Stevens and Graham are well known top blocking TEs. Put one next to their LT(their best blocker) and run right there with Hall leading the way. 20 running plays later, then maybe change up. I don't care if they punt 5 times, keep doing it.I'm not sure that there's any player comparable to CJ in his ability to fly. I'm not sure there's ever been. They either gotta free him up or put Ringer in.Last week, CJ and Ringer played WR some and were open and/or got open fast. I expect to see more of that. It was the first time I can recall(I know there was at least two more but can't remember) that CJ looked like CJ in 2011. I really don't care what it is, just give that guy the room so he can fly. It changes everything.
 
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I don't buy all these excuses for a minute.

A talented RB will "make something out of nothing". That's what separates great RB's from the mediocre ones.

There is no way C. Johnson has "lost his talent".

Personally, I think he is injured in some way and is not disclosing the injury. This is changing the way he is playing to avoid further injury.

There's no way that suddently after 3 monster seasons in the NFL he suddently "sucks"

Doesn't make sense.

 
I watch the Packers play and I'd state confidently that the Packers have 7 or 8 offensive lineman who would all start for the Titans and be among their top guys. Marshall Newhouse (Packers backup LT) makes his Titans counterpart look truly terrible. And he's a backup.
I get it that you had fuel to this fire before you made this comment, but you're quite wrong. Their LT is one of the best and a regular to the Pro Bowl and/or All Pro teams as is the RT. He just had a bad game.This game was terrible and I like some of your points and totally applaud your effort here. It's a fabulous contribution, thank you.This is the worst I saw them play in years or maybe ever. I mean nothing went right and it was just one of those games.There's a real problem with awesome line coach Mike Munchak becoming head coach and former Titan HOF Bruce Matthews becoming their line coach. I have zero idea what it is, but one certainly doesn't get the impression everything is fine while watching the game. Jake Scott came over from the Colts and he's always been erratic. I'm pretty sure that's why the Colts let him walk. He definitely had some moments though since joining the Titans; although he'll make your pull your hair out too.This line was phenomenal and you could drive a truck through their huge holes just a couple years ago. I see everyone compensating for someone else and few fulfilling assignments winding up in a big cluster. There is zero second level blocking as the TE and FB are always helping with someone instead. CJ has to have this. He's too fast, it must be there for him to get rolling. The WR blocks are pitiful, but the linemen have everyone's attention. When CJ runs outside, they get in the way more than they help. I'd rather they step out of bounds.Hall is a former marine playing FB. What image does that give you? Yeah that was him.He was suspended and just came back a week or two ago. He's older now, but if it was Hall leading the way and CJ behind him, they could take on anyone. They had this awesome understanding of which way the other would go, when a move should be made etc. That is not there. That confidence, that trust...it's gone. I don't know why, what happened etc. At times I see Hall destroy a LB or S and CJ runs into the defender as he lies on the ground. Other times he avoids it as if Hall will miss the block and runs right into someone else. IMO They're all pressing and acting stupid as many of us do at times in life.IMO they need to get back to whatever vanilla plays work and run them until they do. Stop being clever or cute, stop the finger pointing and overthinking, just run to one spot over and over like Gibs, BP, Knoll, Lombardi and others would have their teams do at times. Stevens and Graham are well known top blocking TEs. Put one next to their LT(their best blocker) and run right there with Hall leading the way. 20 running plays later, then maybe change up. I don't care if they punt 5 times, keep doing it.I'm not sure that there's any player comparable to CJ in his ability to fly. I'm not sure there's ever been. They either gotta free him up or put Ringer in.Last week, CJ and Ringer played WR some and were open and/or got open fast. I expect to see more of that. It was the first time I can recall(I know there was at least two more but can't remember) that CJ looked like CJ in 2011. I really don't care what it is, just give that guy the room so he can fly. It changes everything.
Great posting, and I've only watched limited Titans football. Maybe he was concussed or something? Who know? He looked like a poor man's John Michels out there.
 
I don't buy all these excuses for a minute.A talented RB will "make something out of nothing". That's what separates great RB's from the mediocre ones.There is no way C. Johnson has "lost his talent". Personally, I think he is injured in some way and is not disclosing the injury. This is changing the way he is playing to avoid further injury.There's no way that suddenly after 3 monster seasons in the NFL he suddenly "sucks"Doesn't make sense.
It's an 11 on 11 game that CJ dominates. He loses in what appears to be a four versus 11 game.He's like a bird that got his wings clipped. Flipping and flopping around, gets going to try and take off but doesn't get any height and...they gotta get him going and let him fly.Last week I actually missed the Cook experiment at WR. He did it for a some plays the week before the bye and ...ya know he might stink as a blocker when compared to other TEs, but I bet he fares far far better when compared to WRs. If there is any move that displays a blocking upgrade, the Titans gotta make it.Matthews' boy( nephew?) is not as talented as other members of his family, but I'll take that patented Matthews effort. I don't care where he plays on the line. If he plays 2 or 3 plays only...cool, maybe the effort will be contagious. It's hard not to love Stephens for all he does and how under-appreciated he is. I'm fine with them making him a C, G, T, FB, or WR this week. Hey throw him in at QB and let him pitch it then hit someone.Put a jersey on Munchak and Matthews' backs.Bench every lineman, sign some FAs and put a new crew out there.I don't care what it is really but Munchak needs to show me something with the blocking this week-that's how I feel anyhow, surely some other fans feel similarly and are sick of the OL play too.It'll be ironic, but if his teams always have serious issues on the OL, he'll be terrible as a coach despite everything else he does well. It's not just the OL. The DL is soooo not what it was as well. Fisher was blessed with a great DL and OL coach and they always had top units or units capable of producing as one each week. Munchak isn't blessed as such. That's an enormous transition for a team to make, but I'm not giving him any excuses. He's an OL at heart and understands every ounce of the coaching aspect. An NFL coach is more of a manager than a coach usually, but Munchak's gotta get back into coaching/teaching and take care of business. The line play is just atrocious.
 
...I'm just going to break this off for the night at the half. His offensive linemen should be ashamed of themselves. They really should. Specifically the LT and RG played horribly. They look like practice squad guys at best. They get pushed around a lot. When they do get to the second level, they completely whiff blocks. I don't think it is fair to say that Chris is playing poorly. He's trying out there. He isn't going down easily. He's fighting for yards. He just isn't getting any help at all. It must have pissed him off to see how the Texans blocked for Arian Foster. I think his comments about his linemen are completely justified.I watch the Packers play and I'd state confidently that the Packers have 7 or 8 offensive lineman who would all start for the Titans and be among their top guys. Marshall Newhouse (Packers backup LT) makes his Titans counterpart look truly terrible. And he's a backup.
I have a question: I know these guys are total pros.... but they are also humans, so how often does it happen in pro football when one guy gets paid big, big $$$$ and maybe that guy does not properly acknowledge the other guys who got him there or maybe the team does not similarly remunerate those same blockers.... and let's say there's a letdown in the ol' protection?Also, I know Ringer is only averaging no better at 3.0 overall but in two games he has 5/21/1 (10 yd TD) and 3/31/0, and receiving 2/30 and 1/17.Also, it sounds like Indy is it: "Munchak wants to see complete complement of carries to evaluate CJ and run game fully."https://twitter.com/#/terrymc13/statuses/129665125929066496Alternatively this has been said a million times but maybe Munchak went and done tried to fix what `twer not broke.ETA: Also this:>>>
...2 14:22 0 - 3 2nd-and-8 own 23 caught pass for 17 yards (first down): At this point the announcer starts bagging on Johnson's conditioning and practicing, saying he's tentative. He obviously isn't watching the game here. Johnson is getting no daylight so far. But on this play Johnson catches the ball after 6 yards and breaks two tackles while moving it 11 more up the field. Nice play where he actually had some room to use his skills. He lined up split wide left....
<<<What happened here?This sounds like something Johnson should have done more with?He has no 50 yard runs since week 1 of 2010.He had 768 touches 2009-10. Over 350 touches per year. He closed out the last 2 games of last year 34/97/0, less than a 3 yard average.This has been well discussed:http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html
 
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SaintsInDome, he lined up wide, snap, quick pass, 17 yards. It was fast, very fast. You'd have thought it was 5 yards with any other player

 
...I'm just going to break this off for the night at the half. His offensive linemen should be ashamed of themselves. They really should. Specifically the LT and RG played horribly. They look like practice squad guys at best. They get pushed around a lot. When they do get to the second level, they completely whiff blocks. I don't think it is fair to say that Chris is playing poorly. He's trying out there. He isn't going down easily. He's fighting for yards. He just isn't getting any help at all. It must have pissed him off to see how the Texans blocked for Arian Foster. I think his comments about his linemen are completely justified.I watch the Packers play and I'd state confidently that the Packers have 7 or 8 offensive lineman who would all start for the Titans and be among their top guys. Marshall Newhouse (Packers backup LT) makes his Titans counterpart look truly terrible. And he's a backup.
I have a question: I know these guys are total pros.... but they are also humans, so how often does it happen in pro football when one guy gets paid big, big $$$$ and maybe that guy does not properly acknowledge the other guys who got him there or maybe the team does not similarly remunerate those same blockers.... and let's say there's a letdown in the ol' protection?Also, I know Ringer is only averaging no better at 3.0 overall but in two games he has 5/21/1 (10 yd TD) and 3/31/0, and receiving 2/30 and 1/17.Also, it sounds like Indy is it: "Munchak wants to see complete complement of carries to evaluate CJ and run game fully."https://twitter.com/#/terrymc13/statuses/129665125929066496Alternatively this has been said a million times but maybe Munchak went and done tried to fix what `twer not broke.ETA: Also this:>>>
...2 14:22 0 - 3 2nd-and-8 own 23 caught pass for 17 yards (first down): At this point the announcer starts bagging on Johnson's conditioning and practicing, saying he's tentative. He obviously isn't watching the game here. Johnson is getting no daylight so far. But on this play Johnson catches the ball after 6 yards and breaks two tackles while moving it 11 more up the field. Nice play where he actually had some room to use his skills. He lined up split wide left....
<<<What happened here?This sounds like something Johnson should have done more with?He has no 50 yard runs since week 1 of 2010.He had 768 touches 2009-10. Over 350 touches per year. He closed out the last 2 games of last year 34/97/0, less than a 3 yard average.This has been well discussed:http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html
Not sure what you are asking here. Do I think that the line should have simply been left alone? Yes. The switch to the zone scheme seems to be a work in progress at best, and a failure at worst. But you have to put players in a position to be successful. If the linemen are confused or lacking technique, then maye you should go back to what worked. With no offseason to practice it, I don't understand why you'd switch something like this.
 
that stat line is SHOCKING. I read it and came over here to see WTF is up. Man it's ugly. Ringer? At a loss....

 

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