Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Who do you think is overrated going into 2013? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Montee Ball (though that buzz is cooling)
Possibly Lamar Miller - Phins seem to be having some pass blocking issues, and I wonder how that translates to run blockers (what are the chances five guys who can't pass block well all are run block gurus)
Mike Wallace - Lotta balls to go around and will Tannehill have time to get the ball to him? If you could get DeSean Jackson or him, I would pick D-Jax every time.
Possibly Lamar Miller - Phins seem to be having some pass blocking issues, and I wonder how that translates to run blockers (what are the chances five guys who can't pass block well all are run block gurus)
Mike Wallace - Lotta balls to go around and will Tannehill have time to get the ball to him? If you could get DeSean Jackson or him, I would pick D-Jax every time.
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
Arian Foster scares me this year.
People keep saying this but I don't get it either.
He's not going that high... around QB10. They aren't passing it 727 times again, but even at 650+ times that seems like almost a value pick for QB10, and not being overrated.
Agree with Ball, Wilson, Wallace... don't have them on any teams because of their current price. Though, Wallace seems to be falling in drafts.
Last edited by a moderator:
Pipes
Footballguy
I think James Jones is underrated...He's the only GB who's not nursing injuries right now and his adp is 3 rounds lower than Cobb and 1 lower than Nelson. I'm buying him in every league possible at that price.
The others on your list I agree with though I like Lynch but I think Michael cuts into his carries. I also don't like Stephen Jackson at his price...too much mileage on him for my liking. Also think Andre Johnson is going too high as well.
The others on your list I agree with though I like Lynch but I think Michael cuts into his carries. I also don't like Stephen Jackson at his price...too much mileage on him for my liking. Also think Andre Johnson is going too high as well.
Khy
Footballguy
This list hurts my head and really confuses me.
1) Matt Stafford: How is a QB currently being drafted at QB7 is over-rated? You have to assume he finishes in the Top 10. Which if he does is right about where he's being drafted... and he always has the upside to finish Top 5.
2) David Wilson: Sure the hype train is big around him, but he's currently going as the RB20. Are you really trying to tell me you'd rather draft one of the other guys around his ADP? DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Lamar Miller, Darren Sproles? Wilson has a higher ceiling then all of them and a higher floor then most of them.
3) Jake Locker: What? Who is rating him highly?
4) Mike Wallace: He's being drafted as WR21 same as with Wilson... it's not very overrated.
5) Marshawn Lynch: Okay he could be overrated but I don't see it. The guy is a complete animal.
6) James Jones: WR26 on the best passing game in the NFL? I'll take the 'flier' on him over other guys at his ADP like Steve Smith, DeSean Jackson, Tavon Austin and Greg Jennings.
7) Colin Kaepernick: Agreed, I really don't think he's all that special and he has no real receiving options outside of Vernon Davis.
My Votes
1) Demaryius Thomas: This whole situation just scares me in Denver, he's going as WR6 right now and I just don't trust it at all.
2) Randall Cobb: Same as with Thomas, too many targets to share at WR10 I just don't see him finishing in the top 10 or even the Top 15 for that matter.
3) Steven Jackson: Going at RB12? No way, I'd much rather take my chances with a whole slew of guys near his ADP before taking him. Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, MJD, Ridley, Bush, Murray, Wilson, hell I'd probably take LeVeon Bell before Sjax.
4) Doug Martin: He's ADP RB3 right now and I just don't see it. He was inconsistent last season and put up 33% of his production in 2 games. A lot of people are talking about him as 1.01. I just think it's crazy and I'd be willing to bet money he finishes outside the Top 5. He won't be a complete bust but a Top 2-3 pick finishing outside the top 5 is 'overrated' to me.
5) Drew Brees: A LOT of people think he's coming back to form this season but honestly? It seems NO has the hardest schedule vs the pass and a lot of reports are saying they want to try and establish a real running game this season. His ADP is QB2 right now but I'd much rather have Manning, Newton or Ryan right now than Brees.
Last edited by a moderator:
mere blitzianity
Footballguy
My list:
Brady-still being drafted as a top 4 QB and I say he finishes around 7-10. They will run the ball more than people think
Kappy-going too high for my liking as well
Russell Wilson- I live the kid, but think he takes a step back this year and they feed Lynch, their thundering beast
Lamar Miller-I like his talent, but too many people are counting him to be a #2 RB...he's a great #3
SJax-I think the wheels completely fall off this year, despite being in a great situation.
Ball-color me not impressed
James Jones-you can scoop him up in most leagues, but to expect anything remotely close to last year is a bit crazy
Floyd- too many people think he's going to break out this year. I like his talent, but think a real breakout is in 2014
Torrey Smith-I think he's more of a complementary WR and not a true #1
Brady-still being drafted as a top 4 QB and I say he finishes around 7-10. They will run the ball more than people think
Kappy-going too high for my liking as well
Russell Wilson- I live the kid, but think he takes a step back this year and they feed Lynch, their thundering beast
Lamar Miller-I like his talent, but too many people are counting him to be a #2 RB...he's a great #3
SJax-I think the wheels completely fall off this year, despite being in a great situation.
Ball-color me not impressed
James Jones-you can scoop him up in most leagues, but to expect anything remotely close to last year is a bit crazy
Floyd- too many people think he's going to break out this year. I like his talent, but think a real breakout is in 2014
Torrey Smith-I think he's more of a complementary WR and not a true #1
mere blitzianity
Footballguy
definitely agree on Wallace and Jennings
Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
Put me in this camp. And I hated his value last August probably more than any other single player (he was going in what the 2nd round?). Seems like a bargain this year.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
qb - Brady and Ryan - Think you can get roughly the same production and upside 2 rounds later
rb - ball, stewart, and pierce - i don't think their workload will justify the cost
wr - cobb, nicks, welker, gordon, britt - all going higher than more than a couple players I like better
te - davis - feels like hes getting pushed up higher than he deserves because of Pitta and Hernandez.
rb - ball, stewart, and pierce - i don't think their workload will justify the cost
wr - cobb, nicks, welker, gordon, britt - all going higher than more than a couple players I like better
te - davis - feels like hes getting pushed up higher than he deserves because of Pitta and Hernandez.
Wally Cleaver
Footballguy
Kaepernick is an extremely accurate, extremely large Michael Vick. Anyone remember what Vick did the one year he was accurate? He doesn't have the weapons that Vick had but he has one of the best o-lines in the game and his weapons are not horrible. I have a hard time seeing him finishing below 6 or 7 and I think there is top 3 upside as he could easily take a bunch to the house from long range with his legs. It wouldn't shock me at all if he ran for 800+ yards this year.
Pipes
Footballguy
Yeah he won't have 14 TD's but he'll certainly have more catches and yards. He's being drafted as WR26 and has the best QB in the league throwing to him in a passing offense with Rodger's 2 favorite targets (Jordy and Cobb) are both nicked up. What's not to like?
steveski
Footballguy
I can't imagine having him ranked outside of the top 5. Who outside of the top 5 would you prefer over him? D. Thomas, Fitz, Cobb, Cruz, White, Andre?
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
I think he is saying that AJ is in a giant tier of players some of which are available in the next round, so it makes sense to pass on AJ if you feel that way regardless of his numerical rank. I don't agree, for me AJ is basically a tier by himself just like Calvin.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE ranked 2nd in rushing attempts last year. They will run a lot again this year. That doesn't mean Brady will be less productive.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
QB - Andrew Luck. I think a rebound year from Stafford is all but assured, given the well-detailed nature of the Lions' various red zone absurdities that cost him a dozen or so TD's he'd have had under normal statistical circumstances last year. With Bryant rounding into Megatronish form, I can only see Romo improving over last year. Eli seems like a good bet to have a healthier, more productive receiving crew this season, on top of the fact that Randle is an emerging talent. Russ Wilson finished just below Luck last year in standard, and it seems reasonable to expect him to play more like he did down the stretch than when he was a raw, untested, green behind the ears rookie just sniffing the field for the first time, so a little uptick there is likely.
A handful of QB's like Dalton and Bradford are going to be playing with well-stocked arsenals of weapons for the first time, so although they may not surpass Luck, they just may, as well, and aren't safe to discount.
And even Cutler now has a way pass-friendlier coach, an emerging WR2, and a shiny new weapon at TE. He's going to take a monster leap.
The point of course isn't that all these guys will pass him by, but that there are a lot of guys poised to.
And then the flip side, from those who finished above him, only RG3 really seems to have question marks, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a big bounceback from him. Would you?
Then, on top of all that, Luck got swapped from the super-pass-friendly Arians offense to the run-heavy Stanford one. Are his numbers going to dry up? Of course not. But given all the above, I think he'd need to make a significant step FORWARD to even maintain his ranking from last year. I think Luck proves to be a much improved QB in year two, but while his efficiency improves, his FF stats fall.
Right now he's being drafted as QB 8 or 9, and I have him down around 14.
A handful of QB's like Dalton and Bradford are going to be playing with well-stocked arsenals of weapons for the first time, so although they may not surpass Luck, they just may, as well, and aren't safe to discount.
And even Cutler now has a way pass-friendlier coach, an emerging WR2, and a shiny new weapon at TE. He's going to take a monster leap.
The point of course isn't that all these guys will pass him by, but that there are a lot of guys poised to.
And then the flip side, from those who finished above him, only RG3 really seems to have question marks, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a big bounceback from him. Would you?
Then, on top of all that, Luck got swapped from the super-pass-friendly Arians offense to the run-heavy Stanford one. Are his numbers going to dry up? Of course not. But given all the above, I think he'd need to make a significant step FORWARD to even maintain his ranking from last year. I think Luck proves to be a much improved QB in year two, but while his efficiency improves, his FF stats fall.
Right now he's being drafted as QB 8 or 9, and I have him down around 14.
Last edited by a moderator:
Tanner9919
Footballguy
strongly agree with Stafford, he's nothing more than a yardage compiler, woefully short on TDs, Jake Locker - but who liked him as a fantasy starter anyways - Wallace.
also agree with Jones I've cooled somewhat on him,not sure I'd draft him at this point...
strongly disagree on Kap..i think he's better than advertised, and that he'll post better numbers than last year..
disagree on Lynch,I think he's golden this season, Seattle looks poised to run the ball like mad, Lynch should be a huge part of that..
I'll add:
any Patriots WR, including Amdendola..it's great that things looked OK for Patriots offense vs Eagles - with scripted plays on the first 2-3 drives against a fluff defense- but in real games we'll see typical first-timer mistakes, like always happens with someone elevated to the starting position - its good to do it a couple of games, but over a full schedule, lets see if the Patriots WR's can hold their water.I'm betting they can't...
I'm driving the Anti-Trent Richardson Bandwagon..hop aboard!
Jay cutler might not even last the season as a starter in Chicago, i'll bet he's benched at some point, he's looked dreadful thus far in TC and I doubt he corrects the problems before the real games begin.
Gronkowski - even if he's 100% on opening day, I still see no way defenses don't just blanket him and force someone else to beat them - like the No-Name Wr's the Pats have..
D. Murray is made of glass, stats look great on paper but he just can't put it together for a full season, and he won't do it in 2013, either..wouldn't draft him , no way, no how..
Jared Cook - jees, the love for Cook is bordering on crazy now..the Kool Aid drinkers are out in droves , backing Cook as the next big TE..you know you're doomed when Peter King touts you as a top 5 guy..
Arian Foster - it's time to put to bed any thoughts that he'll be back as a top 5 RB in 2013..he's worn out..still not practicing,now it's a back issue.they can downplay it all they want, it's just not a good sign of things to come..
Last edited by a moderator:
BoltBacker
Footballguy
This is one I really don't understand.
Brees has been QB #1 for the past two seasons in a row so I'm not sure exactly how much further he can come back to form. For some reason Rodgers is rated as #1 on almost every list but I just don't see it. People say Payton will focus on the running game but that's the same guy that was passing the ball when he was ahead by three scores the last time he coached. It's the reason Sproles value is out of control and both Ingram/Thomas can be had for peanuts. Lastly the defense doesn't seem much improved in my eyes so N.O. games will still be pinball machine affairs. Are people this worried about the loss of Devery Henderson(who has been released by WAS so they could potentially bring him back if they wanted)?
Rodgers - running game looks to be massively improved, defense should be slightly improved, lost a pro-bowl WR to FA and another starter is already having knee issues before the season starts
Manning - a lot of talk about how he will hurry up the offense and get a lot more snaps in... really, do you honestly think Manning is going to stop standing at the line and barking out two audibles and three fake audibles. He may rush to the LOS but I'm not convinced he'll actually get many more plays off. Manning without long, time consuming audibles on almost every play. I can't even imagine what that would look like.
Newton - great running QB's that try to make the transformation to pocket passers have a spotty history at best. Cunningham made that switch, but he also had Moss/Carter in their prime. I don't see many HOF's for Newton to throw the ball to.
Ryan - His line(which has never been nearly as good as N.O.) is already getting banged up and we're a month away from the season. Jackson is much more talented than Turner and the running game could balance this offense out a lot more than in the past. Lastly, I'm a huge Mike Nolan fan and think the defense will improve even more with another year under Nolan.
Sorry if it seems I'm picking on your post but I don't understand how Brees isn't ranked as QB#1 by a healthy margin and I almost never see him ranked that way.
silentcoach
Footballguy
WR--Colston in ppr leagues ADP 14--no thank you.
silentcoach
Footballguy
This post was not directed at me but in a ppr league I rather have Murray, Mcfadden, and Sproles than Wilson.
Murray--no competition for carries unlike Wilson, and coaches say they will run more. catches the ball too.
Sproles--highest floor of any of these backs because he is basically a wr playing rb.
McFadden--this is more 50/50 but I'll take him because he does not have the vulture TD A.Brown on his team, which limits Wilson's ceiling.
The MIA oline has not showed it can block for anyone right now, so I'd be hesitant on miller.
Last edited by a moderator:
Man of Zen
Footballguy
RB - McFadden. I don't deny his talent, but he's already been dealing with subpar line play and injury proneness the last few years, and now with even the OAK coaches saying, "Well, Matt can't really throw more than 25 yards," McFadden is going to get flat-out killed. I wouldn't project a prime Emmitt Smith for a top 20 finish in this situation. For McFadden, I'd be shocked if he finishes in the top 50 RB's.
He should still be drafted higher than that, just because he's a starter, and has talent, but no way I'm taking him until guys like L. Miller, L. Bell, R. Bush, et al are off the board and a distant memory. I have him on my draft list around 25, and he's currently going 17, just behind Ridley and MJD.
Madness.
He should still be drafted higher than that, just because he's a starter, and has talent, but no way I'm taking him until guys like L. Miller, L. Bell, R. Bush, et al are off the board and a distant memory. I have him on my draft list around 25, and he's currently going 17, just behind Ridley and MJD.
Madness.
silentcoach
Footballguy
Bush is going top 15, so I don't think you'll have to worry about him or McFadden.
Most ADPS I've seen have McFadden at rb 19+.
Last edited by a moderator:
Man of Zen
Footballguy
http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/rb.phpBush is going top 15, so I don't think you'll have to worry about him or McFadden.
Most ADPS I've seen have McFadden at rb 19+.
All that link is doing is presenting an ADP based upon averaging the results across multiple commish sites.
It may be en vogue to discount the rankings of leagues drafted on megasites because their default rankings tend to skew their results, but the fact is, most online leagues are still taking place on those sites. So to discuss the reality, you have to take into account certain ugly truths. Alas. To the unwashed masses, Bush is still behind DMC. I don't get it either.
Last edited by a moderator:
johnadams
Footballguy
OPs list:
Stafford: Suffice to say I agree with the others here, not the OPO..
Wilson: Brown is a journeyman. If Wilson doesn't fumble, he'll be the main guy. GL might be a different story, but he'll be very productive. I get the concern, but I don't agree..
Locker: Who?
Wallace: Buried in the huge lake of WR2 types. Seems about right.
Lynch: What? Nonsense.
Jones: See Wallace.
Kaepernick: Going around QB8. If the argument is that he's a spot or two too high, that's one thing, but overrated?
My list:
MJD, RB15, ADP 2.07. I think there's a really strong chance (>50%) that he doesn't return to form for some reason. 28 year old RBs coming off major injuries aren't where I'm spending a second round pick.
Gore. RB 17, ADP 3.01. 30 year old RBs with a long history of injuries (doesn't show in his games played cause dude is one tough SOB) and declining carries is another place I don't want to hitch my wagon this early.
Bowe, WR13, ADP 4.04. The next WR on a Alex Smith QB'd team to finish in the top 30 WRs will be the first.
Amendola, WR 16, ADP 4.08. If there's one thing that's been constantly beat into my head this preseason it's that guys with an injury history tend to get injured.
Rodgers and Brees, QB1/2, ADP 2.11 and 2.12. These guys are still great, but I think the next crop of QBs is closing the gap quickly and I'd rather wait a couple more rounds. I actually agree with the general ranking of QBs, but just not how early these two are going.
Stafford: Suffice to say I agree with the others here, not the OPO..
Wilson: Brown is a journeyman. If Wilson doesn't fumble, he'll be the main guy. GL might be a different story, but he'll be very productive. I get the concern, but I don't agree..
Locker: Who?
Wallace: Buried in the huge lake of WR2 types. Seems about right.
Lynch: What? Nonsense.
Jones: See Wallace.
Kaepernick: Going around QB8. If the argument is that he's a spot or two too high, that's one thing, but overrated?
My list:
MJD, RB15, ADP 2.07. I think there's a really strong chance (>50%) that he doesn't return to form for some reason. 28 year old RBs coming off major injuries aren't where I'm spending a second round pick.
Gore. RB 17, ADP 3.01. 30 year old RBs with a long history of injuries (doesn't show in his games played cause dude is one tough SOB) and declining carries is another place I don't want to hitch my wagon this early.
Bowe, WR13, ADP 4.04. The next WR on a Alex Smith QB'd team to finish in the top 30 WRs will be the first.
Amendola, WR 16, ADP 4.08. If there's one thing that's been constantly beat into my head this preseason it's that guys with an injury history tend to get injured.
Rodgers and Brees, QB1/2, ADP 2.11 and 2.12. These guys are still great, but I think the next crop of QBs is closing the gap quickly and I'd rather wait a couple more rounds. I actually agree with the general ranking of QBs, but just not how early these two are going.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not sure how Locker an be in the overrated class if 90+% of FF circles think he sucks.
EBF
Footballguy
Peterson is a big one for me. I think he'll be a good redraft option, but I don't think he'll live up to expectations. His 2012 season was an outlier compared to his overall career.
The same kind of applies to Brandon Marshall. I look for his target numbers to drop back down to 2010-2011 levels after last year's huge total. Still good. Just not top 2 WR good.
Foster is another established guy that I'm leery of. Declining performance three years running. 400+ carries last season. Slow to heal. That doesn't inspire confidence.
The same kind of applies to Brandon Marshall. I look for his target numbers to drop back down to 2010-2011 levels after last year's huge total. Still good. Just not top 2 WR good.
Foster is another established guy that I'm leery of. Declining performance three years running. 400+ carries last season. Slow to heal. That doesn't inspire confidence.
nirad3
Footballguy
Quarterbacks
RGIII - We all know the "running QB" tends to get hurt more and while he is an accomplished passer, I'm not enamored at all with whom he has to throw the ball. Give me Luck or Romo instead.
Rivers - He's currently #19 in consensus rankings and I wouldn't even put him there. More like #26.
Running Backs
Foster - The dreaded 300-carry limit has been reached again. Rushed 327 times in 2010 (monster season) and saw his ypc and games played dip in 2011. Once again, he's over 300 carries (a whopping 351) in 2012. He's due for another breakdown and the Texans will be fine sliding Ben Tate in.
Martin - As another has noted, he got 33% of his fantasy points in 2 contests. I know, "so what"... but you at least want SOME consistency.
Rice - Don't like that the Ravens didn't use him in certain spots last season, going away from him completely in some games. Pierce doesn't scare me as much as that, and the fact that they will miss Boldin and Pitta a ton.
Woodhead - Already went over this in another thread, but will list here too.... SD offense is nothing similar to NE's; he's not going to get as many gimmicky little drop-off passes. And those that think he'd be "the man" once Mathews goes down (which he will) should reconsider. Dude's 5'8" and 195 lbs. soaken wet. There's 10 other "gimmick backs" I'd rather have.
Wide Receivers
Thomas - Addition of Welker + Decker being a solid wideout himself = less chances for Thomas. Still a big play threat but there will obviously be games where he doesn't score, and even in PPR leagues you're going to have some single-digit scoring output. Give me one of the other guys in that tier. Rather wait and get Welker a couple rounds later or Decker even after that if I'm going after a Bronco WR. Better value.
Nicks - Just because I think he'll get hurt again.
Blackmon - I like Shorts more and the QB situation scares me.
RGIII - We all know the "running QB" tends to get hurt more and while he is an accomplished passer, I'm not enamored at all with whom he has to throw the ball. Give me Luck or Romo instead.
Rivers - He's currently #19 in consensus rankings and I wouldn't even put him there. More like #26.
Running Backs
Foster - The dreaded 300-carry limit has been reached again. Rushed 327 times in 2010 (monster season) and saw his ypc and games played dip in 2011. Once again, he's over 300 carries (a whopping 351) in 2012. He's due for another breakdown and the Texans will be fine sliding Ben Tate in.
Martin - As another has noted, he got 33% of his fantasy points in 2 contests. I know, "so what"... but you at least want SOME consistency.
Rice - Don't like that the Ravens didn't use him in certain spots last season, going away from him completely in some games. Pierce doesn't scare me as much as that, and the fact that they will miss Boldin and Pitta a ton.
Woodhead - Already went over this in another thread, but will list here too.... SD offense is nothing similar to NE's; he's not going to get as many gimmicky little drop-off passes. And those that think he'd be "the man" once Mathews goes down (which he will) should reconsider. Dude's 5'8" and 195 lbs. soaken wet. There's 10 other "gimmick backs" I'd rather have.
Wide Receivers
Thomas - Addition of Welker + Decker being a solid wideout himself = less chances for Thomas. Still a big play threat but there will obviously be games where he doesn't score, and even in PPR leagues you're going to have some single-digit scoring output. Give me one of the other guys in that tier. Rather wait and get Welker a couple rounds later or Decker even after that if I'm going after a Bronco WR. Better value.
Nicks - Just because I think he'll get hurt again.
Blackmon - I like Shorts more and the QB situation scares me.
Phenix
Footballguy
Peterson, Brees, Lynch and Thomas? LOL
Get real, these are beyond pathetic opinions. They are studs they will be drafted accordingly, foolish. While they might not put up last years stats, where else would you like these guys to be drafted with their potential?
Oh, and Stafford? WTF? Yeah because so many dudes throw for 10K over 2 years. Yeah him at QB7 is such a reach.
I much rather look like a duuche then a person spouting off horrible assessments.
Get real, these are beyond pathetic opinions. They are studs they will be drafted accordingly, foolish. While they might not put up last years stats, where else would you like these guys to be drafted with their potential?
Oh, and Stafford? WTF? Yeah because so many dudes throw for 10K over 2 years. Yeah him at QB7 is such a reach.
I much rather look like a duuche then a person spouting off horrible assessments.
Last edited by a moderator:
Seems to be a common thought regarding Marshall's targets decreasing but I think predicting he's going back to Miami levels is folly. I'd bet his targets increase before we see it go down to that level on a per game basis.
Before last season he of course had played two years with Cutler. His average targets per game? 11.3. His average targets per game last year? 12. His average targets per year his last two years with Cutler? Just a tad over 12. Last year was just average.
So when you look at his percentage of targets was a bit of an anomaly but in terms of targets per game with Cutler as the QB it was basically a normal year.
Cutler has other options this year and even if he did not the percentage of targets vs team total targets for Marshall was an unsustainable pace. But not his total targets and when you factor in what should be considerably more passing this season by the Bears I think we might see his targets actually increase even if the percentage drops considerable. Also factoring in the other options in the passing game should,in theory anyway, make Marshall more efficient on a per target basis.
EBF
Footballguy
I could see his numbers dropping for the reasons you mentioned. On the other hand, I actually think his talent is flying under the radar. I don't think people realize how sick this guy is. He might be the best WR in the NFL right now. I think he's a better overall WR than Julio Jones and AJ Green. Take a closer look at what he did last year. He ranked just 13th in the league in targets, but 4th in receiving yards. Led all 1000+ yard receivers in yards per target. Manning-to-Thomas was the highest rated QB-to-WR connection in the NFL. The guy is about 6'3" 230, but he runs and cuts like he's 5'10" 190. Just a complete monster of a WR. Like a created player from Madden.
I think he's the alpha dog in that Denver WR situation. It's the other two guys that I'd be worried about.
nirad3
Footballguy
God forbid anyone actually having an opinion.
Oh, and you certainly accomplished the bolded.
Last edited by a moderator:
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
U angry bro?
I tend to agree with AP. Historical data suggests Petterson is due for a major production drop after his 2K rushing season. And if you of the school of thought that 300+ carries foreshadows a fantasy drop off then you must apply then Petterson fits that paradigm as well.
EBF
Footballguy
I'd still back him to finish in the top 10 WRs this season, but I definitely expect his % of the team's targets to drop with Jeffery healthy and Bennett added to the mix. I don't think Cutler in Chicago will match the pass attempts of Cutler in Denver. Different situation and coaching staff. Marshall isn't a guy that I'd avoid necessarily. He's one of the most reliable receivers in the league and one of the few perennial locks for 1000+ yards. I'm just pointing out that he benefited from circumstance last season to set career highs in yards and TDs. I expect a slight regression.
I'm going to go with these two:
Foster- yes the workload concerns me. Still I'm a bit torn because his schedule is so attractive. Right now I've got him as most likely first round bust, but even I'll consider picking him in round one if I can see him healthy and spry looking in a preseason game.
Brady- his injury today has nothing to do with this. Losing the weapons matters. He's a great player and I know he's been tearing Philly up this off season but this is practice/preseason and I think that Philly D is going to make a lot of people look great. I just don't think you can lose the weapons he lost(I assume even if Gronk avoids PUP he's a shell of himself to start the year) and not skip a beat.
Foster- yes the workload concerns me. Still I'm a bit torn because his schedule is so attractive. Right now I've got him as most likely first round bust, but even I'll consider picking him in round one if I can see him healthy and spry looking in a preseason game.
Brady- his injury today has nothing to do with this. Losing the weapons matters. He's a great player and I know he's been tearing Philly up this off season but this is practice/preseason and I think that Philly D is going to make a lot of people look great. I just don't think you can lose the weapons he lost(I assume even if Gronk avoids PUP he's a shell of himself to start the year) and not skip a beat.
Phenix
Footballguy
I much rather hear where people think AP should go if not in the Top 3?God forbid anyone actually having an opinion.
Oh, and you certainly accomplished the bolded.
Brees if not the Top 3?
Gee why not just say Calvin is over rated?
Man of Zen
Footballguy
SD under Whisenhunt is running the Erhardt-Perkins system just like NE did. Given the personnel in SD, that offense can't help but feature a ton of dumpoffs and screens...that's just the way the E-P works in accordance with the personnel.
nirad3
Footballguy
If one thinks Calvin's overrated, they darn well sure have reasons to back it up. I think a good number of the folks that listed their OPINIONS gave decent backup to their claims.I much rather hear where people think AP should go if not in the Top 3?God forbid anyone actually having an opinion.
Oh, and you certainly accomplished the bolded.
Brees if not the Top 3?
Gee why not just say Calvin is over rated?
You, on the other hand, just keep spouting off like a clown.
And for the record, it's not like I am saying I agree with all of these assessments, but I certainly respect their opinions.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
I wouldn't say that Peterson shouldn't go in the top 3. Just that the perception of his value is exaggerated. After last season, he's viewed by many as the clear cut RB1. In my view there are many guys with a reasonable chance to outscore him. So rather than being THE running back to have, I'd say he's just one of many. That's not a significant observation in a typical redraft league where the draft order is locked in place, but in an auction format a guy like this is a prime candidate to be overvalued. He will probably go for a significantly higher cap % than comparable options like Richardson, Martin, and Charles. I don't think he has a significantly higher ppg expectation than those guys in PPR leagues, mainly because he doesn't do much as a receiver and his rushing totals will almost certainly slide back down closer to his career averages. That's all it will take for him to get leapfrogged by any number of the solid RB1 talents who do more in the passing game.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think he's overrated, but he almost certainly won't get 205 targets again this season. His previous career high was 158.
His yardage totals will drop this year, but I don't think he's overvalued. His TD output was really poor by his standards last year. Bump that up towards his career average and he will probably end up producing a similar total of FF points this season compared with 2012 and 2011.
Last edited by a moderator:
Pulp-Free O.J.
Footballguy
I have been a Vikings fan forever and I definitely agree that you need to be careful of RB's the season after having 300+ rushes the year before......UNLESS YOUR NAME IS ADRIAN PETERSON!!! I am telling you guys that he is NOT HUMAN! Everything he does used to surprise me, but not any more. He has a great chance of RB1 again, but is also the safest bet the being top 3, IMO! Do what you want, but I will not be betting against AP!
1. Can you explain what "whole situation scares you" in Denver, and with Thomas?Khy said:
4. Even if you, for no apparent reason, discount Martin's two huge games where he probably guaranteed his owners a win (take away the top two games of every top 10 RB), Martin still finished as RB5. As a rookie. He is no longer a rookie and has improved run blocking from the Guards.
5. Back to form? When did he leave his form??
