LHUCKS
Footballguy
This poll is related to the following post that I made in another thread regarding YPC and upside.
In general high YPCs are more likely to significantly outperform their draft position because to exceed their previous year's numbers they more than likely just need more targets/receptions. If they have a high YPC there's a good chance the coach will try to get them the ball more the next season, if it's to the tune of 15 receptions you're talking about a significant increase in yards with a high YPC. On the other hand the guy with 80 receptions has nowhere to go but down, especially if he's a #2 WR...only a handfull of offenses get their #2 WR the ball 80 times, and even fewer 90, if any.
On the flip side, one can argue that a guy with a high YPC also can drop further because he is unlikely to maintain a high YPC, but that's where you have to use your football knowledge in understanding if the WR is likely to maintain the YPC. Further, because I feel I can pretty much outdraft anyone deep in drafts at the WR position I don't mind taking the high reward high YPC players...especially if I think the risk is low for a drastic drop in YPC.
Are you playing for second place or first. If you're playing for second you draft guys like Cotchery, if you're playing for first you draft guys like Reggie Brown or Braylon Edwards...playes that are ranked similary, but have a better YPC and in general a better chance of completely blowing up.
A perfect example of why projection rankings are crap to draft from in competitive leagues. You should be projecting ranges for players, not static values. If you're correctly projecting ranges you can give yourself a decided edge over those that are using static projections.
This is the most common concept/philsophy/strategy that is missed by "experts." I can spot a true shark a mile away when I seem a team full of high YPC WRs with mitigated risks...or if they project ranges and properly utilize those ranges when drafting a team.
In general high YPCs are more likely to significantly outperform their draft position because to exceed their previous year's numbers they more than likely just need more targets/receptions. If they have a high YPC there's a good chance the coach will try to get them the ball more the next season, if it's to the tune of 15 receptions you're talking about a significant increase in yards with a high YPC. On the other hand the guy with 80 receptions has nowhere to go but down, especially if he's a #2 WR...only a handfull of offenses get their #2 WR the ball 80 times, and even fewer 90, if any.
On the flip side, one can argue that a guy with a high YPC also can drop further because he is unlikely to maintain a high YPC, but that's where you have to use your football knowledge in understanding if the WR is likely to maintain the YPC. Further, because I feel I can pretty much outdraft anyone deep in drafts at the WR position I don't mind taking the high reward high YPC players...especially if I think the risk is low for a drastic drop in YPC.
Are you playing for second place or first. If you're playing for second you draft guys like Cotchery, if you're playing for first you draft guys like Reggie Brown or Braylon Edwards...playes that are ranked similary, but have a better YPC and in general a better chance of completely blowing up.
A perfect example of why projection rankings are crap to draft from in competitive leagues. You should be projecting ranges for players, not static values. If you're correctly projecting ranges you can give yourself a decided edge over those that are using static projections.
This is the most common concept/philsophy/strategy that is missed by "experts." I can spot a true shark a mile away when I seem a team full of high YPC WRs with mitigated risks...or if they project ranges and properly utilize those ranges when drafting a team.
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Nice analysis LHUCKS. My 2 cents are:1) Most likely, these guys are being drafted in Round 8 or later, so the upside is much more desirable, and I see it in Edwards and Brown more than Cotchery.2) when I draft, I like my 1st couple of picks to be a consistent performer over one with a ton of upside, as these players can kill your season if they bust. In this case, a static projection is perfectly acceptableAs you get later in the draft, variance should increase. As LHUCKS implies, if you draft a WR in a later round that, under the best of scenarios, will only get you 65 rec, 900 Yds, and 7 TDs, then you're missing the upside component. This type of WR won't be a WR2 ever. I read in a FF magazine a few years back that if you draft someone that won't be a fantasy starter even if they get a starting job or better opportunity, pass on them.....it's a waste of draft resources. You can get someone like this off the waiver wire all the time, especially at the WR position.3) to see if the YPC can be maintained, you need to look at each reception. Is the high YPC skewed by a couple of 80-yd TD catches that most likely won't be maintained? The lower the variance in YPC, the better chance that WR will maintain his YPC.
Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Calvin Johnson... 
