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Who is #1 Fantasy WR? (1 Viewer)

jbird

Footballguy
FBG current rankings for WR are as follows:

S Smith

C Johnson

L Fitzgerald

T Holt

T Owens

R Moss

M Harrison

I'm struggling with the top WRs this year. I think there are many questions for each WR.

S Smith - Can he maintain his level of play from last year and 3 years ago? Many elite WRs such as Moss, Owens, and Harrison have been able to maintain a high level of play over the course of multiple seasons. New factors to consider - Keyshawn as #2 WR and D Williams at RB.

C Johnson - Will he produce his usual stats if Palmer doesn't start the season? How is he affected if Palmer doesn't start until week 6?

L Fitzgerald - Dennis Green's love child. Anquan is no slouch. Edge is 10x better than any RB they used in the last 2 years. Pope is rookie TE with hands. Can Warner stay healthy?

T Holt - I have man love for Linehan. I can't think of any concerns here other than Bulger may be an injury risk but Ferotte knows the system and I don't think they miss a beat with him at QB.

T Owens - Has the talent and will be a force to deal with. However, his antics and injuries have led to 16 games played in only 1 of the last 7 years.

R Moss - With injuries the last 2 years and uncertainty at QB I think we have seen the best of what Moss has to offer.

M Harrison - With Edge gone I wouldn't be surprised to see Manning have stats similar to two years ago. The only downside I can see is his age but look what guys like Rice and Carter did at Harrison's age.

I'm of the opinion that you can't win the championship with your first 3 picks but you can certainly lose it. I'm looking for safe picks that I can count on week in and week out. With that being said, I feel that Holt and Harrison are the top two receivers on the board followed by Smith. If I drafted at the end of the first round I may be inclined to target 2 of these 3 WRs. What do you think?

 
FBG current rankings for WR are as follows:

S Smith

C Johnson

L Fitzgerald

T Holt

T Owens

R Moss

M Harrison

I'm struggling with the top WRs this year. I think there are many questions for each WR.

S Smith - Can he maintain his level of play from last year and 3 years ago? Many elite WRs such as Moss, Owens, and Harrison have been able to maintain a high level of play over the course of multiple seasons. New factors to consider - Keyshawn as #2 WR and D Williams at RB.

C Johnson - Will he produce his usual stats if Palmer doesn't start the season? How is he affected if Palmer doesn't start until week 6?

L Fitzgerald - Dennis Green's love child. Anquan is no slouch. Edge is 10x better than any RB they used in the last 2 years. Pope is rookie TE with hands. Can Warner stay healthy?

T Holt - I have man love for Linehan. I can't think of any concerns here other than Bulger may be an injury risk but Ferotte knows the system and I don't think they miss a beat with him at QB.

T Owens - Has the talent and will be a force to deal with. However, his antics and injuries have led to 16 games played in only 1 of the last 7 years.

R Moss - With injuries the last 2 years and uncertainty at QB I think we have seen the best of what Moss has to offer.

M Harrison - With Edge gone I wouldn't be surprised to see Manning have stats similar to two years ago. The only downside I can see is his age but look what guys like Rice and Carter did at Harrison's age.

I'm of the opinion that you can't win the championship with your first 3 picks but you can certainly lose it. I'm looking for safe picks that I can count on week in and week out. With that being said, I feel that Holt and Harrison are the top two receivers on the board followed by Smith. If I drafted at the end of the first round I may be inclined to target 2 of these 3 WRs. What do you think?
Owens is the #1WR this yeardrafting 2 WR's from the back of the draft has you taking RB1 in the 3rd, or ~35 overall...Thomas Jones-esq

good luck w/that strategy :popcorn:

 
T Owens - Has the talent and will be a force to deal with. However, his antics and injuries have led to 16 games played in only 1 of the last 7 years.
He has also averaged 6+ receptions for 90+ yards/game over the past seven seasons. Not couting last year's BS punishment, TO has only missed 9 games in 9 seasons.Not too shabby.

 
Seeing that Parcells has said that Owens will not be getting the looks and receptions that he's used to, I'd be leary of suggesting that he should be considered the #1 WR.

 
Also he plays across from Glenn who is no slouch and has a bond with Bledsoe

I think Holt is the safest bet.

 
Seeing that Parcells has said that Owens will not be getting the looks and receptions that he's used to, I'd be leary of suggesting that he should be considered the #1 WR.
I agree with this. TO will get his, no doubt about it. But teams, ESPECIALLY in the NFC East (that's 6 out of 16 games during the regular season), will be double teaming him on nearly every play. I think the beneficiary there will be Terry "Hee hee" Glenn..
 
Not too long ago, there was Marvin, Moss and TO - then everyone else, now there's probably 6 WRs I'd rank close to equal in a redraft.

 
I'm not sure who the top WR should be this year. All of the top guys have question marks IMO. So, what I did was go out and get the WR I want most on my team(s). THat WR was R.Moss. The asking price is better than nearly every other WR on that list and he is still the most terifying and dominante WR in the game when healthy. So, my advise is to just grab the guy you want.

 
S Smith - Can he maintain his level of play from last year and 3 years ago? Many elite WRs such as Moss, Owens, and Harrison have been able to maintain a high level of play over the course of multiple seasons. New factors to consider - Keyshawn as #2 WR and D Williams at RB.
When a team realizes they have something good, they don't just decide to go away from it. I don't see a huge dropoff in Smith's numbers this year unless he's injured. I don't think he'll put up his 2005 numbers (103/1563/12), which were inflated by the fact he was the only real weapon on the team. But I can't see him falling back down to his 2003 numbers (88/1110/7), either. I don't think he'll repeat as WR1, but I think his downside is high enough that he's a good early pick.
C Johnson - Will he produce his usual stats if Palmer doesn't start the season? How is he affected if Palmer doesn't start until week 6?
Chad Johnson's numbers will dip without Palmer. They will be good with Palmer. If it looks like Palmer is still doing well with his rehab later in the summer, Johnson will move up my board a little. It's always good to have a guy who should improve as the season goes on. The problem with taking Johnson as WR1 is that he has never been the #1 fantasy WR, and this year, his numbers will likely dip. He won't be the first receiver off the board in any league outside Cincitucky this year.

L Fitzgerald - Dennis Green's love child. Anquan is no slouch. Edge is 10x better than any RB they used in the last 2 years. Pope is rookie TE with hands. Can Warner stay healthy?
I have a hard time slotting Fitzgerald as the #1 WR when I don't even know if he's the #1 WR on his own team. I don't see a lot of separation between Boldin and Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald's gotten more TDs than Boldin, but in 14 games, Boldin had the same numbers that Fitzgerald got in 16. I'm not really worried about injuries with Boldin. He's had a torn miniscus and a deep bone bruise. Although both are related to the knee, they aren't really related to one another, and neither is a recurring type of injury.

I'm a little worried that the Cardinals' offense will change significantly this year. I don't like Warner, who had 11 TDs vs 9 INTs in 10 appearances (8 full games and two partial games). I don't like that there's a rookie waiting in the wings, who, if he is pressed into service this season, will almost certainly see his first start in the second half of the season. I don't like the addition of Edgerrin, who will likely reduce the number of pass attempts and take some dumpoff catches that previously went to the two 100+ reception WRs on this team. That's a double whammy.

I still like both Boldin and Fitzgerald, but I think both will decline, and one will probably decline more significantly than the other. Since I don't know which is which, I'll wait a little before I take either.

T Holt - I have man love for Linehan. I can't think of any concerns here other than Bulger may be an injury risk but Ferotte knows the system and I don't think they miss a beat with him at QB.
I like Linehan, too. I think he'll bring that offense back into balance. Which is why I think the passing numbers in St. Louis will decline. Which is why I think Holt's numbers will decline. Which is why I won't take him #1.
T Owens - Has the talent and will be a force to deal with. However, his antics and injuries have led to 16 games played in only 1 of the last 7 years.
I'm not worried about his injury concerns. Owens plays a physical game and may get knocked around a little, but he's shown he will play through injury if the team needs him and he's so valuable when he's in that he's worth it. I think the more valid concerns are that he's changing teams and that he's playing for a coach that doesn't traditionally overwork one receiver. But when you look at Glenn's rookie season, when he set the rookie receiving record with 90 catches for Parcells, and you look at the similarities between the Cowboys' offense in 2006 and the Patriots' offense in 1996, I think Owens will get the gaudy numbers we've come to expect. I'm not worried about the coachspeak, I'm not worried about the attitude, and I'm not worried about Parcells feeding him the ball. When you take a risk on a player with that much talent, and it's a player that wants the ball a lot, and you know that he'll complain when he doesn't get it, you feed him the ball.
R Moss - With injuries the last 2 years and uncertainty at QB I think we have seen the best of what Moss has to offer.
I agree that he's not the #1 WR, but I don't agree that we've seen the best Moss has to offer. I don't think anything has happened to his skills or physical ability. I just think he's riskier than he used to be. Getting a new QB in Oakland could help. Recuperating from injury should help. The only thing keeping him from being #1 on the board is risk - is he an injury risk at this stage? He has injured his ribs, ankle and groin. Is the Raiders offense capable of getting him the numbers he got in the Vikings offense? Is Brooks going to be any good in his first year as a Raiders QB? It's actually that last question that gives me hope for Moss - I don't have any statistics to prove this, but I've observed that decent QBs who are starting out on a new team tend to zone in on their clear #1 receiver, and then tend to work other receivers into the game as they get more comfortable with the whole offense. I think Moss is very capable of having a good year this year. I'm a little too leery of the other risks to take him as the first WR off the board, but I think he's a good home run swing if you're looking for a potential #1 receiver.

M Harrison - With Edge gone I wouldn't be surprised to see Manning have stats similar to two years ago. The only downside I can see is his age but look what guys like Rice and Carter did at Harrison's age.
I agree that Manning's stats will be up this year. But I'm not sure how well Harrison or Wayne will do. Like Fitzgerald, it's hard for me to take a #1 WR when I don't know if they're the #1 on their own team. Manning doesn't need to zone in on Harrison the way he used to, which I think will keep Harrison from being the #1 WR overall, but I do like him this year. As a side note, I think it's interesting that you listed Harrison and Fitzgerald, but not Wayne or Boldin. That's how both ADP and the FBG rankings look so far, too.

 
Seeing that Parcells has said that Owens will not be getting the looks and receptions that he's used to, I'd be leary of suggesting that he should be considered the #1 WR.
I just don't buy Parcell's story.
Reid wanted to run the ball more last year also.When the Cowgirls are down by 7-10-14 points, the ball isn't going to Fasano. It isn't going to Glenn. It isn't going to Witten.

They are going to ride TO when they need points, and will use him as much as they need to. If they have a lead, I agree, they won't be forcing the ball to TO. But as everyone knows, every team wants to run the ball more. Control the clock. It rarely works out that way.

Most of it depends on the D. If the D struggles, they're going to get the ball in TOs hands. He's their biggest weapon. But like I said, if they have a lead, yes I agree with what parcells says. But teams want to win, and when you're down or it's a close game, you get the ball to TO, period.

 
Two more things to add:

1) Every year there's a consensus top 8 or 9 receivers. Every year about half bust. It's going to happen again.

2) The guys after that consensus top 8 or 9 aren't all that different from each other. Don't take them early unless you think there's a real chance for your guy to break out.

 
2) The guys after that consensus top 8 or 9 aren't all that different from each other. Don't take them early unless you think there's a real chance for your guy to break out.
WR I think could "break out.":R.Moss

Chambers

Driver

Evens

M.Jones

K.Robinson/T.Williamson

B.Edwards

 
B.Edwards
If you expect this to happen THIS year, you will be sadly disappointed.
I said COULD.
The team has already said that they "hope" to have him back in October. IMO, having a breakout season missing the beginning of the season and then hitting the accelerator production wise is highly unlikely (especially given how putrid the Browns passing stats have been and now going with a very inexperienced QB).
 
B.Edwards
If you expect this to happen THIS year, you will be sadly disappointed.
I said COULD.
The team has already said that they "hope" to have him back in October. IMO, having a breakout season missing the beginning of the season and then hitting the accelerator production wise is highly unlikely (especially given how putrid the Browns passing stats have been and now going with a very inexperienced QB).
I agree it is unlikley, but I can still see it happening. WHen Edwards comes back he will, IMO, be head and shoulders the best WR on the team. It would not surprise me to see him get several looks and finish off strong. Of course, Winslow could emerge before then so who knows. :shrug:
 
Two more things to add:

1) Every year there's a consensus top 8 or 9 receivers. Every year about half bust. It's going to happen again.

2) The guys after that consensus top 8 or 9 aren't all that different from each other. Don't take them early unless you think there's a real chance for your guy to break out.
Fred has it right. Every reciever on that list has the potential to be #1, but at least a couple will fail to produce as even a top fifteen, whether that's because of injury or some other reason.This year does feel a little different at reciever, with the top 20 or so being much closer together then normal.

I could name at least half a dozen other recivers who could POTENTIALLY challenge for top five or even top honors, but to me the verdict is pretty clear this year...wait on recievers. Stock up in the 4-8 rounds, and hope your instincts were right on them. :ph34r:

 
B.Edwards
If you expect this to happen THIS year, you will be sadly disappointed.
I said COULD.
The team has already said that they "hope" to have him back in October. IMO, having a breakout season missing the beginning of the season and then hitting the accelerator production wise is highly unlikely (especially given how putrid the Browns passing stats have been and now going with a very inexperienced QB).
I agree it is unlikley, but I can still see it happening. WHen Edwards comes back he will, IMO, be head and shoulders the best WR on the team. It would not surprise me to see him get several looks and finish off strong. Of course, Winslow could emerge before then so who knows. :shrug:
:continueshijack:In trying to take a contrarian view of this Cleveland WR situation, I find myself wondering about the impact of Edwards returning in midseason.

I'm thinking that if all through OTA's, minicamp, training camp, preseason and the first several regular season games, Frye, a young and new starting QB, will be working extensively with Jurevicius, Winslow, and a rotation of WR opposite Joe J, and intimately getting to know their individual tendencies and nuances. Along comes Braylon, who will gradually be worked into practices and games and be part of that rotation at WR2, which will probably continue to be a rotation, unless he's healthy and consistent enough to sieze the job for himself, which I think is the eventual best case scenario.

So Braylon starts seeing increased playing time in game, and if everything goes as planned, starts getting the majority of snaps with the regular offenses, and develops into a threat that opposing DC's have to account for. Does it affect the distribution of passes, or does he simply begin to cull receptions from the other WR rotating in that spot as they are gradually phased out? I'm thinking that Northcutt will still get a significant portion of these as the #2/#3 and slot guy in 3 WR formations, no matter what Braylon does...

So where does is this going? Well, I think we have to consider the likelyhood that if Edwards has to be accounted for when on the field with Jurevicius and Winslow, who we've already established that Frye should have a higher level of familiarity with...

...then isn't it likely that both Jurevicius and Winslow should both have a little more space to work with, and perhaps be just a little 'more open' than in the first several weeks of the season?

Frye naturally continues to mature and progress as the season wears on, and the game begins to slow down for him. Now when Frye drops back to pass, his #1 and #2 options in the passing game, who he's had all that time to develop a rapport with, begin to appear to gain separation and space they might not have had before. Does his completion percentage begin to rise? And while their # of targets may not change, do Joe and Winslow begin catching more of the balls thrown their way? I'm thinking yes, and yes.

One of my higher $$$ Leagues is a 14-team Dynasty start 2WR, with another WR as a flex option, and I'm currently rostering Holt and Chambers as starters, with Andre Johnson and Jurevicius rotating as my flex WR prior to our Rookie/UFA Draft.

The more I'm thinking about this scenario in Cleveland, the more I'm intrigued by it.

Such are the things I think about in June...

 
Truthfully - I think it depends on Carson Palmer. If he is back and healthy all year then I believe Chad Johnson is number one. For the first time in his career, Owens has a WR that is worthy of sharing catches and that is bound to lower his numbers (on a per game basis) somewhat. Moss may be better with Brooks back there but it is tough to say. Smith is still a very good option but has Keyshawn taking some catches away and with DeAngelo Williams in town, the Panthers should be able to get around Foster's annual injury outages. I like Chris Chambers to surpise people if Culpepper is healthy. I don't think Fitzgerald should be considered because he will be sharing catches with Boldin AND James is going to improve the ground game.

I like Holt a lot with Linehan's offense too. It will be a very interesting year to say the least.

 
I like Owens to be the #1 this year.

I don't like the Carson Palmer injury and CJ wasn't even the #1 last year.

Steve Smith worries me. I doubt he comes anywhere near his numbers from last year especially with Key there stealing catches and those who waste a first rounder on him will be sorry.

Holt started to have some nagging injuries last season.

Moss is dominant when he is healthy but will he ever be healthy again? Don't discount Brooks, someone had to throw Joe Horn the ball when he put up those huge numbers. If Moss stays healthy I think he starts off like a mad man.

Harrison/Wayne steal too many catches from each other, but they will both be top ten more than likely.

Boldin/Fitz were ridiculous last year with 100+ catches each so I could see one of them battling with Owens for #1.

 
HEHEHE..I don't care who's #1...I'm going to let everyone else in my leagues worry about that while I stock up elsewhere and then steal 3 top 30 receivers in middle rounds while they try to play catchup. :D

 
If you're looking for consistency and the closest thing to a "sure thing" grab Holt. If you're looking for more upside, pick one of the other ones.

 
If you're looking for consistency and the closest thing to a "sure thing" grab Holt. If you're looking for more upside, pick one of the other ones.
I don't know why, but I have a bad feeling about Holt this year....maybe it has something to do with new coaching, emerging RB, age and nagging injuries.....but I just have trouble seeing him in the top five anymore. (And I've had him three times in the last five years)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
B.Edwards
If you expect this to happen THIS year, you will be sadly disappointed.
I said COULD.
The team has already said that they "hope" to have him back in October. IMO, having a breakout season missing the beginning of the season and then hitting the accelerator production wise is highly unlikely (especially given how putrid the Browns passing stats have been and now going with a very inexperienced QB).
I agree it is unlikley, but I can still see it happening. WHen Edwards comes back he will, IMO, be head and shoulders the best WR on the team. It would not surprise me to see him get several looks and finish off strong. Of course, Winslow could emerge before then so who knows. :shrug:
wow, and I thought I was the biggest Edwards fan here. ;) 2007 - he may be top 10, 2006 he most certainly will not be the #1.

 
TO, hands down. Johnson, Smith close behind. I know people's personal opinion on the guy gets in the way, but hey, you gotta admit, he's a hell of an athelete. When he's healthy and at the top of his game, much like Randy, he is a dominant force and threat on the field. The pass doesn't have to be good for those 2, they make things happen. Much like Smith, but he makes things happen after the catch, the ball has to get thrown to him perfectly though

 
Roy Williams
Too much of that Mike Martz COOL AID :banned: - put the glass down - that is Jon Kitna not Trent Green or Marc Bulger playing QB in Detroit
What did Kurt Warner, Trent Green, or Marc Bulger ever do before Martz? Seriously. They were NOBODIES.Warner was undrafted and came from arena football. First year as a starter in STL he was the #1 fantasy QB.

Green was an 8th round draft pick that sat for 6 years before Martz got a hold of him. First year as a starter he was the #7 fantasy QB.

Bulger was a 6th round draft pick and averaged 303 passing yards and 2.33 TD per game as a fill in. In his first full year as a starter, he ranked as the #6 QB.

If you want to say the rest of the players on offense are not on par with what was on St. Louis, that's a better argument. But saying the other QBs were better than Kitna is an urban myth.

ranked as the #6 in his first full year as a starter.

 
Roy Williams
Too much of that Mike Martz COOL AID :banned: - put the glass down - that is Jon Kitna not Trent Green or Marc Bulger playing QB in Detroit
What did Kurt Warner, Trent Green, or Marc Bulger ever do before Martz? Seriously. They were NOBODIES.Warner was undrafted and came from arena football. First year as a starter in STL he was the #1 fantasy QB.

Green was an 8th round draft pick that sat for 6 years before Martz got a hold of him. First year as a starter he was the #7 fantasy QB.

Bulger was a 6th round draft pick and averaged 303 passing yards and 2.33 TD per game as a fill in. In his first full year as a starter, he ranked as the #6 QB.

If you want to say the rest of the players on offense are not on par with what was on St. Louis, that's a better argument. But saying the other QBs were better than Kitna is an urban myth.

ranked as the #6 in his first full year as a starter.
To be fair, all of those QBs had Orlando Pace blocking for them, were throwing to Holt and Bruce, most were throwing to Marshall Faulk, and there were decent options at WR3 and WR4. That's not to say that the Detroit O line, Roy Williams, Kevin Jones and the rest of the Detroit receivers aren't good, too, but it's hard to separate the offensive talent of the Rams from the effect of Martz.
 
The pass doesn't have to be good for those 2, they make things happen. Much like Smith, but he makes things happen after the catch, the ball has to get thrown to him perfectly though
So untrue.Owens wishes he had as good of hands as Steve Smith.

 
The pass doesn't have to be good for those 2, they make things happen. Much like Smith, but he makes things happen after the catch, the ball has to get thrown to him perfectly though
So untrue.Owens wishes he had as good of hands as Steve Smith.
We get it. :P
 
The pass doesn't have to be good for those 2, they make things happen. Much like Smith, but he makes things happen after the catch, the ball has to get thrown to him perfectly though
So untrue.Owens wishes he had as good of hands as Steve Smith.
We get it. :P
:D Actually, it was because I cut out too much of the comment the first time. It didn't read right. Editing looks bad, so I repost instead, all the time.I know. :bag:

 
After a week of research I'm inclined to keep Holt at the top of my list, however, I've lowered Harrison on my rankings.

With Linehan, a healthy Bulger (and Frerotte who knows the system as a better back up than last year's bunch), a strong RB, not to mention a decent #2 WR (Bruce and Curtis are interchangable), I feel Holt has the least amount of downside amongst the top receivers. He may not end up being the #1 WR but in the last 6 years he's averaged 97 receptions, 1,404 yards and 8 TDs (unless my math is bad). I'll take that production from my #1 WR and perhaps my late 1st round pick in a PPR league.

 
Roy Williams
Too much of that Mike Martz COOL AID :banned: - put the glass down - that is Jon Kitna not Trent Green or Marc Bulger playing QB in Detroit
What did Kurt Warner, Trent Green, or Marc Bulger ever do before Martz? Seriously. They were NOBODIES.Warner was undrafted and came from arena football. First year as a starter in STL he was the #1 fantasy QB.

Green was an 8th round draft pick that sat for 6 years before Martz got a hold of him. First year as a starter he was the #7 fantasy QB.

Bulger was a 6th round draft pick and averaged 303 passing yards and 2.33 TD per game as a fill in. In his first full year as a starter, he ranked as the #6 QB.

If you want to say the rest of the players on offense are not on par with what was on St. Louis, that's a better argument. But saying the other QBs were better than Kitna is an urban myth.

ranked as the #6 in his first full year as a starter.
To be fair, all of those QBs had Orlando Pace blocking for them, were throwing to Holt and Bruce, most were throwing to Marshall Faulk, and there were decent options at WR3 and WR4. That's not to say that the Detroit O line, Roy Williams, Kevin Jones and the rest of the Detroit receivers aren't good, too, but it's hard to separate the offensive talent of the Rams from the effect of Martz.
Green started in Washington . . . who had no Pro Bowlers on the OL. In Martz' 12 seasons with the Rams, they had only other Pro Bowl OL besides Pace (Jackie Slater) and the two did not play together as far as I know.The year Bruce went off for almost 1800 yards the QBs were future HOFers Chris Miller and Mark Rypien. The following year when Bruce was still a top WR and Eddie Kennison emerged Tony Banks was the QB . . . and there were no Pro Bowl OL in either of those years.

Looking back at other entries on the Martz resume . . .

- Helped QB Jim Everett double his TD output from one year to the next (from 11 to 22).

- Got the Redskins from 11 to 24 TD in two seasons

- Increased the Rams passing yardage by 1200 yards and 30 TD in a single season

- Increased Az-Hakim's numbers by 400 yards and 7 TD in a season

 
After a week of research I'm inclined to keep Holt at the top of my list, however, I've lowered Harrison on my rankings.

With Linehan, a healthy Bulger (and Frerotte who knows the system as a better back up than last year's bunch), a strong RB, not to mention a decent #2 WR (Bruce and Curtis are interchangable), I feel Holt has the least amount of downside amongst the top receivers. He may not end up being the #1 WR but in the last 6 years he's averaged 97 receptions, 1,404 yards and 8 TDs (unless my math is bad). I'll take that production from my #1 WR and perhaps my late 1st round pick in a PPR league.
:goodposting: In PPR leagues, I like Holt, too -- mainly for the consistently high production for the past 6 years. He turns 30 this year, but he should have at least 2-3 solid years before age becomes an issue. His TDs have always been a little on the low side, but he gets tons of yardage, and he's always around 100 receptions.

In non-PPR leagues, I think I prefer Chad Johnson slightly over Holt.

 
Assuming Redraft:

1. Steve Smith - While Keshawn may steal a few targets, he should also draw some coverage away from SS. I look for similar numbers as last year, which will be enough to be the #1 WR.

2. Terrell Owens - I hate this guy, but he is probably the most talented WR in the league, and i think Parcells keeps him in line.

3. Torry Holt - Probably wont finish in the top 3, but i would rank him here for his consistency, the guy is a guaranteed 1200 yards 8 TD's.

4. Randy Moss - Injuries have plagued him the last couple years, but it also has dropped his value into the 2nd/3rd round of drafts this year. Brooks throws a good deep ball, and the Raiders should be throwing alot, if Moss stays healthy, he should finish as the #1 WR.

5. Chad Johnson - Palmers injury and the amount of weapons on the team drops CJ to #5, but like Holt, you know what you are going to get out of the guy, which makes him an easy top 5 WR.

6. Roy Williams - Martz + no Harrington + freakish talent = :eek: this guys upside is as high as anyones.

7. Marvin Harrison - As long as he is breathing and Manning is throwing him the ball, he will continue to be a top 10 WR.

8. Larry Fitzgerald - With no running game, the Cardinals led the league in pass attempts. With James in town, the Cardinals will certainly run the ball more. Fitz and Boldins numbers will both certainly decrease from last year, but not enough to drop Fitzgerald out of the top 10.

9. Plaxico Burress - Burress was underutilzed in the Giants offense last year, and still had a good season. With Eli ready to take the next step to QB stardom, and Burress in his second year with the team, Plaxico is poised for a career year.

10. Santana Moss - The Tiki Barber of WR's, always undervalued. As long as Brunell stays healthy, Moss should finish in the top 10 again. The addition of Lloyd and Randle El should only help to create space, Moss does not need 90-100 catches in a year to put up huge numbers.

 
Holt

Is the #1 Fantasy Choice. The likelyhood of him being the top receiver however is just as equal as any of the other 7. However, Holt is the best Fantasy choice as he will not be far off from the top if he isn't the top. Every other pick includes some type of risk level. Even if injuries are taken out of the situation.

Fitz and Boldin and virtually the same talent level with Fitz being more the deep route burner and Boldin being the quick possession wr. Either of these WR on that team could be dominate but more likely both will be great, but neither will be the top given choice.

CJ has a major question mark with Palmer at this point although this is injury related. What I meant earlier is discontinue someone for an injury history where as Palmer is a very real situation. If Johnson has a poor QB the first say six weeks. It will be tough to say he would be the #1 WR.

Harrison is past his prime statistics, It would be very surprising if he was #1 only because I believe the younger talent has a lot of moves that they can show.

Chamber could be a #1, but when compared against the Holt or him I think you have to consider Holt.

Owens could be a #1, but considering the burn people received last year from him he doesn't deserve to be drafted as a #1 wr but could be a #1 fantasy producer.

Smith could be #1, anyone who looks like LL Cool J deserves to be consider top potential. :D The only knock is the running game got a boost, Johnson add some balls being spread, and the defensive is upgraded. I do not see a lot of need for stretching the field with 80 yard passes.

In my mind Holt is clearly the #1 WR that should be drafted #1. He has the ability to lead the league and his situation is the best to let him dominate.

 

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