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Who is Peyton throwing to in the Patriots game? (1 Viewer)

That might be somewhat true, but the Broncos are also tied for 5th in yards allowed per rush attempt. So it's not just a matter of their opponents always playing from behind. Take last week: Jamaal Charles still got 16 carries despite the fact that the Chiefs were trailing almost the whole game, and while he did get loose for that one 35-yard run, the Broncos held him to 43 yards on his other 15 carries.

 
Here come the excuses already for why the Donkeys lose..

Game time temperature will feel like 8 degrees, with 40 mph winds. Good luck out there Forehead, he's gonna look like Blaine Gabbert on Sunday night.
lolDidnt the pats just get lit up by Brandon LaFell and Tedd Ginn Jr?
Yeah. Newton just threw 3 tds and no picks. Peytons going to light them up with the wrs he has. Ne def is even more beat up now than they were going into mnf. Only way ne wins is for them to outscore denver in a high scoring game
Denver has an awful defense
Pretty sure this is the prevailing belief because everyone witnessed Romo go off vs Den D. While they were brutally horrid that game, things have gotten better since. Actually, Den has a top 5 run D this season. Also, Den D has not allowed > 300 yds passing in last 5 games. Some of that has to do with them beginning to jell as the season progresses, some has to do with Von Miller's reemergence, who they were without for the first 6 weeks.
Denver has a top-5 run D because teams are consistently playing from behind and abandoning the running game. Look at the stats in context.
this sounds right, but it's not completely accurate. Denver is not last in terms of rushing attempts against - they are 24th, and only 2 attempts per game from NFL average. What happens is that opposing offenses go run-heavy in the first half in a mis-guided effort to "keep Peyton off the field". Look at the SD game, for example. by my count, 26 runs vs 16 pass attempts in the first half. This is from a team with a 278:358 run:pass ratio for the season.

It is true that teams abandon the run late, but they make up for it early.

 
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Here come the excuses already for why the Donkeys lose..

Game time temperature will feel like 8 degrees, with 40 mph winds. Good luck out there Forehead, he's gonna look like Blaine Gabbert on Sunday night.
lolDidnt the pats just get lit up by Brandon LaFell and Tedd Ginn Jr?
Yeah. Newton just threw 3 tds and no picks. Peytons going to light them up with the wrs he has. Ne def is even more beat up now than they were going into mnf. Only way ne wins is for them to outscore denver in a high scoring game
Denver has an awful defense
Pretty sure this is the prevailing belief because everyone witnessed Romo go off vs Den D. While they were brutally horrid that game, things have gotten better since. Actually, Den has a top 5 run D this season. Also, Den D has not allowed > 300 yds passing in last 5 games. Some of that has to do with them beginning to jell as the season progresses, some has to do with Von Miller's reemergence, who they were without for the first 6 weeks.
the fact of the matter is that since Von's return, the Bronco pass D has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt and a 53.6% completion rate, both of which would be tops in the league. The opponent QB rating is 74.6, which would be 6th.

As far as scoring, if you were to ignore points scored directly by defenses (i.e. interceptions returned for TD's or safeties) or points scored where the O turned the ball over inside their own 20, the Den D has allowed < 16 PPG.

Since Von's return, this D is top 10 if not top 5, even if the stats don't show it.

 
I'm still waiting for my future self to come back in time to give me a Greys Sports Almanac. When he, or I, arrives, I'll take a look and let you know

The way a lot of people around here think I'll summarize the wordage for why Welker should have a record setting day:

"Revenge"

"The broncos want to feature Welker against his former team"

All ridiculous. Manning will throw to who manning has thrown to all season: everyone and anyone who is open.
also, he's really good, and he'll be covered by a special teamer, or some guy off the practice squad, from the look of it.
Patriots waived RB Leon Washington.
Washington was active for just two games this season and has been dealing with an ankle injury since Week 5. As a vested veteran, his $1.2 million salary is fully guaranteed. The Patriots have promoted CB Justin Green from the practice squad to take his spot on the active roster.
 
Here come the excuses already for why the Donkeys lose..

Game time temperature will feel like 8 degrees, with 40 mph winds. Good luck out there Forehead, he's gonna look like Blaine Gabbert on Sunday night.
lolDidnt the pats just get lit up by Brandon LaFell and Tedd Ginn Jr?
Yeah. Newton just threw 3 tds and no picks. Peytons going to light them up with the wrs he has. Ne def is even more beat up now than they were going into mnf. Only way ne wins is for them to outscore denver in a high scoring game
Denver has an awful defense
Pretty sure this is the prevailing belief because everyone witnessed Romo go off vs Den D. While they were brutally horrid that game, things have gotten better since. Actually, Den has a top 5 run D this season. Also, Den D has not allowed > 300 yds passing in last 5 games. Some of that has to do with them beginning to jell as the season progresses, some has to do with Von Miller's reemergence, who they were without for the first 6 weeks.
Denver has a top-5 run D because teams are consistently playing from behind and abandoning the running game. Look at the stats in context.
8th in DVOA

3rd in EPA/P

5th in rushing YPA allowed

Pro Football Focus has them graded out 11th in the league against the run. (Also: 11th in overall defense)

If they're not top 5, then they're pretty close. Top 10 for sure.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Denver has a top-5 run D because teams are consistently playing from behind and abandoning the running game. Look at the stats in context.
You might want to take your own advice. They're pretty good against the rush.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
LAbronco said:
Here come the excuses already for why the Donkeys lose..

Game time temperature will feel like 8 degrees, with 40 mph winds. Good luck out there Forehead, he's gonna look like Blaine Gabbert on Sunday night.
lolDidnt the pats just get lit up by Brandon LaFell and Tedd Ginn Jr?
Yeah. Newton just threw 3 tds and no picks. Peytons going to light them up with the wrs he has. Ne def is even more beat up now than they were going into mnf. Only way ne wins is for them to outscore denver in a high scoring game
Denver has an awful defense
Pretty sure this is the prevailing belief because everyone witnessed Romo go off vs Den D. While they were brutally horrid that game, things have gotten better since. Actually, Den has a top 5 run D this season. Also, Den D has not allowed > 300 yds passing in last 5 games. Some of that has to do with them beginning to jell as the season progresses, some has to do with Von Miller's reemergence, who they were without for the first 6 weeks.
Denver has a top-5 run D because teams are consistently playing from behind and abandoning the running game. Look at the stats in context.
how would that impact their ypc allowed stats?

if anything, teams playing from behind would encourage denver to play more nickel and dime, which should inflate the ypc allowed, not deflate it.

 
Rotoworld:

Weather.com is projecting temperatures of 20 degrees and below with winds in the 20-22MPH range for Sunday night's Broncos-Patriots game in Foxboro.
There is no chance of precipitation, but Weather.com says it will "feel like" 3-6 degrees throughout Sunday night's game with the windchill factor. Per ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, Peyton Manning has a career record of 3-7 when the temperature is below 32 degrees at kickoff, with a career TD-to-INT ratio of 11:13. It's entirely possible Manning bucks his career trends in one particular game, but also entirely possible the Broncos have devised a run-heavy plan of attack against a depleted Patriots defensive front seven. Denver is also in danger of being without Julius Thomas (knee, questionable).

Related: Patriots

Source: ESPN Boston
 
Rotoworld:

Weather.com is projecting temperatures of 20 degrees and below with winds in the 20-22MPH range for Sunday night's Broncos-Patriots game in Foxboro.
There is no chance of precipitation, but Weather.com says it will "feel like" 3-6 degrees throughout Sunday night's game with the windchill factor. Per ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, Peyton Manning has a career record of 3-7 when the temperature is below 32 degrees at kickoff, with a career TD-to-INT ratio of 11:13. It's entirely possible Manning bucks his career trends in one particular game, but also entirely possible the Broncos have devised a run-heavy plan of attack against a depleted Patriots defensive front seven. Denver is also in danger of being without Julius Thomas (knee, questionable).

Related: Patriots

Source: ESPN Boston
I hate this stat (bolded above). As Manning has played most of his career in a dome, the only time it was possible for him to play in a game below 32 is on the road in December or January - in other words, very likely an away game in the playoffs. So - how many QB's have a great record on the road in the playoffs?

Still, I think Denver goes way run-heavy today to protect Manning as well as to take advantage of Wilfork/Mayo being out. I think we see lots of 2TE sets even without JT.

 
In PPR leagues, it's going to be a great night for the running backs. Knowshon and Vreen should get >5 receptions each on short screens.

 
Rotoworld:

Weather.com is projecting temperatures of 20 degrees and below with winds in the 20-22MPH range for Sunday night's Broncos-Patriots game in Foxboro.
There is no chance of precipitation, but Weather.com says it will "feel like" 3-6 degrees throughout Sunday night's game with the windchill factor. Per ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, Peyton Manning has a career record of 3-7 when the temperature is below 32 degrees at kickoff, with a career TD-to-INT ratio of 11:13. It's entirely possible Manning bucks his career trends in one particular game, but also entirely possible the Broncos have devised a run-heavy plan of attack against a depleted Patriots defensive front seven. Denver is also in danger of being without Julius Thomas (knee, questionable).

Related: Patriots

Source: ESPN Boston
I hate this stat (bolded above). As Manning has played most of his career in a dome, the only time it was possible for him to play in a game below 32 is on the road in December or January - in other words, very likely an away game in the playoffs. So - how many QB's have a great record on the road in the playoffs?
I believe he's on the road today

 
Rotoworld:

Weather.com is projecting temperatures of 20 degrees and below with winds in the 20-22MPH range for Sunday night's Broncos-Patriots game in Foxboro.
There is no chance of precipitation, but Weather.com says it will "feel like" 3-6 degrees throughout Sunday night's game with the windchill factor. Per ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, Peyton Manning has a career record of 3-7 when the temperature is below 32 degrees at kickoff, with a career TD-to-INT ratio of 11:13. It's entirely possible Manning bucks his career trends in one particular game, but also entirely possible the Broncos have devised a run-heavy plan of attack against a depleted Patriots defensive front seven. Denver is also in danger of being without Julius Thomas (knee, questionable).

Related: Patriots

Source: ESPN Boston
I hate this stat (bolded above). As Manning has played most of his career in a dome, the only time it was possible for him to play in a game below 32 is on the road in December or January - in other words, very likely an away game in the playoffs. So - how many QB's have a great record on the road in the playoffs?
I believe he's on the road today
let me guess - it's going to be below 32? :scared:

 
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Here come the excuses already for why the Donkeys lose..

Game time temperature will feel like 8 degrees, with 40 mph winds. Good luck out there Forehead, he's gonna look like Blaine Gabbert on Sunday night.
lolDidnt the pats just get lit up by Brandon LaFell and Tedd Ginn Jr?
Yeah. Newton just threw 3 tds and no picks. Peytons going to light them up with the wrs he has. Ne def is even more beat up now than they were going into mnf. Only way ne wins is for them to outscore denver in a high scoring game
Denver has an awful defense
Pretty sure this is the prevailing belief because everyone witnessed Romo go off vs Den D. While they were brutally horrid that game, things have gotten better since. Actually, Den has a top 5 run D this season. Also, Den D has not allowed > 300 yds passing in last 5 games. Some of that has to do with them beginning to jell as the season progresses, some has to do with Von Miller's reemergence, who they were without for the first 6 weeks.
Denver has a top-5 run D because teams are consistently playing from behind and abandoning the running game. Look at the stats in context.
Lazy thinking at its best.

 

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