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Who is targeting Jason Witten? (1 Viewer)

FFPC Scoring and lineups (1.5 pts/rec for TEs)

I've kind of dismissed the idea of taking Jason Witten. He just didn't seem like good value in the 3rd round. Maybe its because he just isn't a sexy pick. In mock drafts I have continuously been taking WRs like Roddy White, Randall Cobb, and Vincent Jackson in the 3rd round and grabbing a TE like Finley or Cook in the 7th.

As an experiment I took Witten in the 3rd round of a mock and then grabbed Miles Austin in the 7th. I'm thinking this might be the better play. In the past 5 years Witten has caught 81, 94, 94, 79, and 110 balls. That's an average of 92 catches. At his career avg of 11.1 ypc thats 1021 yards. Recent news stated that Witten will be targeted more often in the red zone this year. But either way, lets give him his career avg of 1 td every 18 catches and that works out to 5. 92/1021/5 = 270.1 fantasy points. He may be boring, but he gets the job done.

I have Finley projected at 64/806/5 = 206.6 fantasy points. That works out to 63.5 fantasy points or 4 ppg less than Witten. I just can't see the difference in a WR from round 3 to round 7 being that big. I have White, Cobb and VJax projected at 259.2, 257.9, 254.2 while I have Austin at 226.6. Thats a difference of roughly 30.5 fantays points or 1.9 pgg.

Am I missing out on Witten just because he isn't a sexy pick? At what point in a FFPC draft would you consider taking him?

 

Im.A.Wizard

Footballguy
I got him 5th round in a 12 team standard scoring league. Im happy with it. I see him as a top 5 TE this year for sure.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think you answered your own question as far as why Witten has been going as a 3rd round pick opposed to a 7th.

The 1.5ppr makes the TD upside less necessary due to the volume of receptions. 30 more receptions from Witten than the other TE = 45 pts which = > 7TD.

The only caution I would take is on your projections. The Cowboys did not run the ball much at all last season. I believe they will run more this year due to the Oline upgrade and healthier RBs. So depending on how you did your projections for the Cowboys it is possible your (and a lot of projections I have seen) projected receptions are too high.

How many rushing attempts do you have the Cowboys down for?

 

menobrown

Footballguy
Am I missing out on Witten just because he isn't a sexy pick? At what point in a FFPC draft would you consider taking him?
I think that's exactly it. When I mention his name to other FFPC players I can literally feel the lack of enthuisiasim. But I get it, I drafted him in the 4th round of an FFPC rules draft masters in July and it bored me.

You would think in time when we are seeing TE's going down left and right with injuries and what have you a guy who has not missed a game in over 9 years while averaging almost 16 FPG in the FFPC format would be more valued.

He is moving up however. Early third is more or less his ADP and to me that's about right. In that range you'll see a lot of other attractive options so he's far from a no brainer there but it seems right. I know some people who would not even look at him until near the 5th at best in an FFPC format.

I would add I don't buy the increased redzone talk. I guess it's possible if Dez is getting triple teamed and things open up for him but I doubt it.

 

TwinTurbo

Footballguy
If you are projecting Witten for 270fp in FFPC scoring, then you can make a very strong argument to draft him in the third round. But outside of Jimmy Graham, I would rather target RB/WR in the first 36 picks.

 
I think you answered your own question as far as why Witten has been going as a 3rd round pick opposed to a 7th.

The 1.5ppr makes the TD upside less necessary due to the volume of receptions. 30 more receptions from Witten than the other TE = 45 pts which = > 7TD.

The only caution I would take is on your projections. The Cowboys did not run the ball much at all last season. I believe they will run more this year due to the Oline upgrade and healthier RBs. So depending on how you did your projections for the Cowboys it is possible your (and a lot of projections I have seen) projected receptions are too high.

How many rushing attempts do you have the Cowboys down for?
592 pass attempts

368 rush attempts for rbs

28 rush attempts for romo

 

az_prof

Footballguy
Am I missing out on Witten just because he isn't a sexy pick? At what point in a FFPC draft would you consider taking him?
I think that's exactly it. When I mention his name to other FFPC players I can literally feel the lack of enthuisiasim. But I get it, I drafted him in the 4th round of an FFPC rules draft masters in July and it bored me.

You would think in time when we are seeing TE's going down left and right with injuries and what have you a guy who has not missed a game in over 9 years while averaging almost 16 FPG in the FFPC format would be more valued.

He is moving up however. Early third is more or less his ADP and to me that's about right. In that range you'll see a lot of other attractive options so he's far from a no brainer there but it seems right. I know some people who would not even look at him until near the 5th at best in an FFPC format.

I would add I don't buy the increased redzone talk. I guess it's possible if Dez is getting triple teamed and things open up for him but I doubt it.
I like him alot, especially since the top tier TEs are thinner than normal with injuries and court cases... That being said, I would have a hard time taking him in the third. Fourth? yes. Third, I don't know about...

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I agree with menobrown (as usual :) ) that the talk about Witten seeing more red zone targets has been the mantra almost every off season he has been in the league. It certainly could happen, but I would not expect that just because of coach speak.

If the Cowboys are more effective running the ball in that could impact TD totals for Romo and all of the receivers as well.

 
Am I missing out on Witten just because he isn't a sexy pick? At what point in a FFPC draft would you consider taking him?
I think that's exactly it. When I mention his name to other FFPC players I can literally feel the lack of enthuisiasim. But I get it, I drafted him in the 4th round of an FFPC rules draft masters in July and it bored me.

You would think in time when we are seeing TE's going down left and right with injuries and what have you a guy who has not missed a game in over 9 years while averaging almost 16 FPG in the FFPC format would be more valued.

He is moving up however. Early third is more or less his ADP and to me that's about right. In that range you'll see a lot of other attractive options so he's far from a no brainer there but it seems right. I know some people who would not even look at him until near the 5th at best in an FFPC format.

I would add I don't buy the increased redzone talk. I guess it's possible if Dez is getting triple teamed and things open up for him but I doubt it.
Forgot to mention these two things. The guy is so damn durable and consistent from week to week and year to year. He has such a high floor and that is very valuable this year because of the lack of quality options at TE.

The more I think about it the more I like him in the 3rd.

 

famousb

Footballguy
i'm not targeting him, but would take him in the late 4th if he wound up coming to me there, but i think 3rd round is absurd... he's the 3rd best TE right now due to the questions around Gronk (Graham, Gonzo, Witten), but i just can't fathom spending a 3rd round pick on the 3rd best TE...

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think you answered your own question as far as why Witten has been going as a 3rd round pick opposed to a 7th.

The 1.5ppr makes the TD upside less necessary due to the volume of receptions. 30 more receptions from Witten than the other TE = 45 pts which = > 7TD.

The only caution I would take is on your projections. The Cowboys did not run the ball much at all last season. I believe they will run more this year due to the Oline upgrade and healthier RBs. So depending on how you did your projections for the Cowboys it is possible your (and a lot of projections I have seen) projected receptions are too high.

How many rushing attempts do you have the Cowboys down for?
592 pass attempts

368 rush attempts for rbs

28 rush attempts for romo
2012 658pa 29TD 19int 36k 355ra 3.6ypc 8TD 321ra RB 30ra QB 4ra WR

2011 570pa 33TD 408ra 4.4ypc 5TD 373ra RB 29ra QB 6ra WR

2010 576pa 29TD 428ra 4.2ypc 10TD 369ra RB 50ra QB (McGee 13 so 37) 8ra WR

So Cowboy RB have averaged 354ra over the last 3 seasons. Including all ra they averaged 397 ra.

The passing attempts averaged 601 over that time frame. 560-620pa expected.

Bill Callahan is a offensive line coach and will have more imput on the offense. Joseph Randle (who many here on FBG think is terrible) is a new RB to possibly be used in a COP (Felix Jones) role, with Dunbar more direct back up to Murray. Injuries to Murray leave a somewhat distorted picture as far as what the Cowboys offense might have done if he were healthy, and what they may do now that he is.

With expected improved running game I think they will have 390-440 total rushing attempts. Qbs have averaged 32ra (discounting McGees in 2010). The WR have been 6. So 352-402ra for the RB is what I would expect.

I still expect Witten to have a lot of targets. Just describing that your projections for the rushing attempts could be slightly low, although I think it is pretty close.

Witten had 2 outlier type games last season where he had 13 receptions against the Bears (likely taking advantage of Urlarcher) and 18 receptions against the Giants (who still have no LBs so this is good). IIRC he was coming off a minor injury to begin the season last year and his receptions were a bit low in the early games.

Witten for his career has averaged 5.1 rec/game. Throwing out his rookie year that is 5.4 receptions/game. He has rarely missed games. So for a 16 game season this would be a median expectation of 86 receptions.

Without many other changes from past seasons besides expected increased rushing attempts I would be expecting 80-100 receptions at 11.1ypr for 888-1110 yards 4-8 TD (averaged 4.7/season).

So this isn't that different than what you are expecting. I just have seen many projections too much based on last years stats for Witten, which obviously is a high mark for him.

eta- Witten is 31 years old now which is a historical landmark for decline for the TE position. But as TE are more often being used as WR (not asked to do as much in line blocking) there is some consideration for looking at WR age landmarks for them instead which would be 33 for more steep decline. I realize this does not matter for redraft purposes, Witten based on last year has not at all lost a step yet. I feel pretty safe about him not seeing decline due to age this season at least, more risk of that starting next season by splitting that difference.
 
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tuffydawolf

Footballguy
In my 12 team PPR re-draft league I took him as my second of two 4th round picks, David Wilson was the first. I'm very happy as the TE position is really thin this year and all the top tier WR's were gone. I have him with at least 80 receptions with 5/6 TDs

 

Fat Nick

Footballguy
Got him with the 2nd pick of the 6th round, after Graham (early 2nd round) and Gronk (the pick right before I took Witten). I'm thrilled. I would have drafted Graham if he slid to the end of round 2, but outside of him, I considered Witten the best for my TE needs. All I want a TE to do is be consistent. Witten is the definition of that. Plus, everyone says, "He doesn't get Red Zone looks." Well, OK...and he's priced as a TE who doesn't get Red Zone looks. So what? If he put up the same numbers he had last year with more RZ looks, he'd be TE 1a with Graham. So there's no downside with that folks. If he suddenly becomes part of the RZ plan, his value is even better.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
The worry for me is that his yards/reception was a career low 9.4 ypc last year -- almost two yards lower than his career average. And his TD% was half his career average.

That last point gets obscured a little bit since he's had bad TD years before, but for a 31 year old TE who was never super athletic to start with I'm concerned that he's hit the wall and his targets will decline. Especially with the other options available to Romo.

 
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moondog

Footballguy
Witten received more targets due to Austin issues with hamstrings and hips and not a lot of production from the WR3 slot. i would expect an 80 catch,900 yds to be closer to his ceiling this season.

Witten has never been a strong end zone target and Dez is the first option in the end zone now.

Expect Dallas to try to run significantly more than they did last year with Callahan calling the plays and with better depth at RB this year. The move of RT Doug Free to OG along with the rookie center is expected to upgrade the interior line.

They want Escobar to be an end zone option too and since he is a poor blocker expect him to be runnings patterns when he is in the game - not blocking.

From the Dallas Morning News after the last pre-season game -

"When the Cowboys drafted Gavin Escobar in the second round last April, they acquired a player they believed would change their fortunes inside the red zone."

Witten has talked about being more of an end zone target but I think his role remains what it has always been.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Long time Witten owner here and I hate to say it but his just predictably boring and that's pretty sorry of me as a FF owner.

I know what I 'm getting. I know he's gonna play barring something horrific. I know he's gonna end up with 88-100 catches and about 5 TDs and 1000 yards and all that but he puts me to sleep like Nyquil. Even on those one or two times a year that he and Romo go on a date and we get to watch those drives where he hits him 4-5 times in a row, its just YAWN.

People SHOULD be looking at him as a very valuable TE commodity this year with al the injuries but we aren't. We are taking him for granted, like Ole Faithful.

And, I agree with the above who have posted about the redzone stuff. I hear that every single year and it never develops and right now, I don't care what they do or how they do it, Dez Bryant is going to flirt with 20 TD catches and leave everyone else out in the cold. Romo has a sweetheart and it ain't Witten.

 

the spanker

Footballguy
Long time Witten owner here and I hate to say it but his just predictably boring and that's pretty sorry of me as a FF owner.

I know what I 'm getting. I know he's gonna play barring something horrific. I know he's gonna end up with 88-100 catches and about 5 TDs and 1000 yards and all that but he puts me to sleep like Nyquil. Even on those one or two times a year that he and Romo go on a date and we get to watch those drives where he hits him 4-5 times in a row, its just YAWN.

People SHOULD be looking at him as a very valuable TE commodity this year with al the injuries but we aren't. We are taking him for granted, like Ole Faithful.

And, I agree with the above who have posted about the redzone stuff. I hear that every single year and it never develops and right now, I don't care what they do or how they do it, Dez Bryant is going to flirt with 20 TD catches and leave everyone else out in the cold. Romo has a sweetheart and it ain't Witten.

Sir I disagreed with you on your assertion about Dez being more important that Witten and it showed last night.

I read alot of stuff you write on here and I thought you missed the boat on this one completely.
 

the spanker

Footballguy
Long time Witten owner here and I hate to say it but his just predictably boring and that's pretty sorry of me as a FF owner.

I know what I 'm getting. I know he's gonna play barring something horrific. I know he's gonna end up with 88-100 catches and about 5 TDs and 1000 yards and all that but he puts me to sleep like Nyquil. Even on those one or two times a year that he and Romo go on a date and we get to watch those drives where he hits him 4-5 times in a row, its just YAWN.

People SHOULD be looking at him as a very valuable TE commodity this year with al the injuries but we aren't. We are taking him for granted, like Ole Faithful.

And, I agree with the above who have posted about the redzone stuff. I hear that every single year and it never develops and right now, I don't care what they do or how they do it, Dez Bryant is going to flirt with 20 TD catches and leave everyone else out in the cold. Romo has a sweetheart and it ain't Witten.
Sir I disagreed with you on your assertion about Dez being more important that Witten and it showed last night.

I read alot of stuff you write on here and I thought you missed the boat on this one completely.

 

TheGreatSpinks

Footballguy
Long time Witten owner here and I hate to say it but his just predictably boring and that's pretty sorry of me as a FF owner.

I know what I 'm getting. I know he's gonna play barring something horrific. I know he's gonna end up with 88-100 catches and about 5 TDs and 1000 yards and all that but he puts me to sleep like Nyquil. Even on those one or two times a year that he and Romo go on a date and we get to watch those drives where he hits him 4-5 times in a row, its just YAWN.

People SHOULD be looking at him as a very valuable TE commodity this year with al the injuries but we aren't. We are taking him for granted, like Ole Faithful.

And, I agree with the above who have posted about the redzone stuff. I hear that every single year and it never develops and right now, I don't care what they do or how they do it, Dez Bryant is going to flirt with 20 TD catches and leave everyone else out in the cold. Romo has a sweetheart and it ain't Witten.
Sir I disagreed with you on your assertion about Dez being more important that Witten and it showed last night.

I read alot of stuff you write on here and I thought you missed the boat on this one completely.
It did show. And it showed that Dez is more important. Not sure if you noticed or not, but Dez Bryant was double teamed or more for the entire game. That opens everything up for Witten and Austin. Make no mistake, Bryant's mere presence is massive. Without him, NYG is able to scheme more frequently and do different things.

The Giants took a page from the Pats and went with the theory of do whatever you can to shut down the opponents best player, and make the secondary guys beat you.

 

the spanker

Footballguy
Long time Witten owner here and I hate to say it but his just predictably boring and that's pretty sorry of me as a FF owner.

I know what I 'm getting. I know he's gonna play barring something horrific. I know he's gonna end up with 88-100 catches and about 5 TDs and 1000 yards and all that but he puts me to sleep like Nyquil. Even on those one or two times a year that he and Romo go on a date and we get to watch those drives where he hits him 4-5 times in a row, its just YAWN.

People SHOULD be looking at him as a very valuable TE commodity this year with al the injuries but we aren't. We are taking him for granted, like Ole Faithful.

And, I agree with the above who have posted about the redzone stuff. I hear that every single year and it never develops and right now, I don't care what they do or how they do it, Dez Bryant is going to flirt with 20 TD catches and leave everyone else out in the cold. Romo has a sweetheart and it ain't Witten.
Sir I disagreed with you on your assertion about Dez being more important that Witten and it showed last night.

I read alot of stuff you write on here and I thought you missed the boat on this one completely.
It did show. And it showed that Dez is more important. Not sure if you noticed or not, but Dez Bryant was double teamed or more for the entire game. That opens everything up for Witten and Austin. Make no mistake, Bryant's mere presence is massive. Without him, NYG is able to scheme more frequently and do different things.

The Giants took a page from the Pats and went with the theory of do whatever you can to shut down the opponents best player, and make the secondary guys beat you.
I agree with you on this. So while Dez is being double teamed who's Romo's sweetheart?

 

bumpman

Footballguy
Long time Witten owner here and I hate to say it but his just predictably boring and that's pretty sorry of me as a FF owner.

I know what I 'm getting. I know he's gonna play barring something horrific. I know he's gonna end up with 88-100 catches and about 5 TDs and 1000 yards and all that but he puts me to sleep like Nyquil. Even on those one or two times a year that he and Romo go on a date and we get to watch those drives where he hits him 4-5 times in a row, its just YAWN.

People SHOULD be looking at him as a very valuable TE commodity this year with al the injuries but we aren't. We are taking him for granted, like Ole Faithful.

And, I agree with the above who have posted about the redzone stuff. I hear that every single year and it never develops and right now, I don't care what they do or how they do it, Dez Bryant is going to flirt with 20 TD catches and leave everyone else out in the cold. Romo has a sweetheart and it ain't Witten.
Sir I disagreed with you on your assertion about Dez being more important that Witten and it showed last night.

I read alot of stuff you write on here and I thought you missed the boat on this one completely.
It did show. And it showed that Dez is more important. Not sure if you noticed or not, but Dez Bryant was double teamed or more for the entire game. That opens everything up for Witten and Austin. Make no mistake, Bryant's mere presence is massive. Without him, NYG is able to scheme more frequently and do different things.

The Giants took a page from the Pats and went with the theory of do whatever you can to shut down the opponents best player, and make the secondary guys beat you.
I agree with you on this. So while Dez is being double teamed who's Romo's sweetheart?
On a target basis, it is Austin. In the redzone, it sure looked like Witten. There also seemed to be more checkdowns to the RBs. Lance Dunbar, when he gets back, is someone worth watching.

 
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the spanker

Footballguy
Long time Witten owner here and I hate to say it but his just predictably boring and that's pretty sorry of me as a FF owner.

I know what I 'm getting. I know he's gonna play barring something horrific. I know he's gonna end up with 88-100 catches and about 5 TDs and 1000 yards and all that but he puts me to sleep like Nyquil. Even on those one or two times a year that he and Romo go on a date and we get to watch those drives where he hits him 4-5 times in a row, its just YAWN.

People SHOULD be looking at him as a very valuable TE commodity this year with al the injuries but we aren't. We are taking him for granted, like Ole Faithful.

And, I agree with the above who have posted about the redzone stuff. I hear that every single year and it never develops and right now, I don't care what they do or how they do it, Dez Bryant is going to flirt with 20 TD catches and leave everyone else out in the cold. Romo has a sweetheart and it ain't Witten.
Sir I disagreed with you on your assertion about Dez being more important that Witten and it showed last night.

I read alot of stuff you write on here and I thought you missed the boat on this one completely.
It did show. And it showed that Dez is more important. Not sure if you noticed or not, but Dez Bryant was double teamed or more for the entire game. That opens everything up for Witten and Austin. Make no mistake, Bryant's mere presence is massive. Without him, NYG is able to scheme more frequently and do different things.

The Giants took a page from the Pats and went with the theory of do whatever you can to shut down the opponents best player, and make the secondary guys beat you.
I agree with you on this. So while Dez is being double teamed who's Romo's sweetheart?
On a target basis, it is Austin. In the redzone, it sure looked like Witten. There also seemed to be more checkdowns to the RBs. Lance Dunbar, when he gets back, is someone worth watching.
Yeah touchdowns are the bread and butter man. Dez will be double covered more often than not especially in the redzone. Then he turns to Witten whom he trusts most in those defining moments.

 
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